3/6/2015

Calculating Sampling Error

for a percentage
sometimes called 
MOE (“Margin of Error”)
Estimation error

Focus:
 Difference between a Parameter
and a Statistic
 What is sampling error
 How to calculate sampling error
 Finite population

Remember the difference between

a…
Describes a 
•Parameter population

•Statistic Describes a 
sample

What does sampling error mean?

• It represents the approximate amount of variance you can expect 
if you ran the same poll with a different sample.
• The error caused by observing a sample rather than measuring the 
whole population.

Example: 
Do you think violence on television causes violence 
amongst teens? ‐ 4.9% + 4.9%
Yes 50%
45.1% 50% 54.9%
No 50%

If sampling error is less than +/‐ 4.9% (at the 95% confidence 
level), the actual percentage saying “yes” in the “real” 
population would likely be within +/‐ 4.9% of the 50%:
Between 45.1%  and 54.9%

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Confidence interval (CI)

A range of values so defined that there is a 
specified probability that the value of a 
parameter lies within it.

‐ 4.9% + 4.9%

45.1% 50% 54.9%

What does Sampling Error not mean?

• It does not represent any other possible errors in 
the survey
• Measurement error (coding errors, poor questions)
• Poor sampling design
• Coverage error
• Non‐response errors
• It only says:
If we do this survey again, exactly the same, but 
with a different sample drawn from the same 
population, 19 times out of 20 (95% of the time), 
the data we would get would be within +/‐ x.x% of 
the data we got this time.

What do you need to calculate

basic sampling error?
• Number of respondents answering 
the question (n)
• The results of the question (p and q)
• The confidence level you are using 
(e.g., 95%) so you can identify the 
associated z‐score (e.g., 1.96) (z)

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Z = x – x
Memory Lane: Z‐score SD
• “The standard score used most frequently by researchers.”
• “A standard score (or standard normal deviates) that 
provide a common unit of measurement that indicates how 
far any particular score is away from its mean.”
• Most 
common  Confidence Area between Area in one z‐score
Level 0 and z‐score tail (alpha/2)
z‐scores:
50% 0.2500 0.2500 0.674
80% 0.4000 0.1000 1.282
Most 
commonly 90% 0.4500 0.0500 1.645
used in  95% 0.4750 0.0250 1.960
commercial
surveys 98% 0.4900 0.0100 2.326
99% 0.4950 0.0050 2.576

Why these z‐scores?

Z‐scores:
1.65 = 90% confidence level
1.96 = 95% confidence level
2.58 = 99% confidence level

68%
95%

99%

Unusual Unusual
Ordinary Values
Values Values

‐3 ‐2 ‐1 0 1 2 3

Sampling Error

Basic Formula


p * q
* z
n

p = proportion or percentage (e.g., 30% said “Yes”) 
q = 1 – p (e.g., 70% did not say “Yes”)
n = sample size
z = z‐score for the confidence level you want
1.65 = 90% confidence level
1.96 = 95% confidence level
2.58 = 99% confidence level

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Let’s Plug It In
n answering question: 400
Results of question:  50% (p) = Yes
50% (q) = Not yes
Confidence Level: 95% 
meaning z‐score of 1.96


50 * 50
* 1.96
400
+/‐ 4.9%

Why 50 / 50 is so common

/
50    50
*      = 2500
p q

Calculating p and q
Yes p
No q
Excellent 45% p
Good 30%
Fair 13% 65% q
Poor 12%

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Sampling Error

More practice
n answering question: 300
Results of question:  50% (p) = Yes
50% (q) = Not yes
Confidence Level: 99% (look up z‐score)
2.58

n answering question: 400
Results of question:  10% (p) = Yes
90% (q) = Not yes
Confidence Level: 90% (look up z‐score)
1.65
n answering question: 100
Results of question:  60% (p) = Yes
40% (q) = Not yes
Confidence Level: 95% (look up z‐score)
1.96

Customer Base = 200
What about a Completed interviews = 100
100 / 200 = 50%
small (finite) population?
• “Population” refers to the “real” population, not 
the survey population (N)
• Consider using when the sampling fraction 
exceeds 5% n / N > 5%
• Finite population correction (FPC) formula:

Alternatively:

Calculating Sampling Error

for a Finite Population
• Calculate sampling error
as usual
• Calculate FPC
• Multiply

( )( )
*

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Sampling Error for Finite Population

Let’s Plug It In
n answering question: 100
N of population: 200
Results of question:  50% (p) = Yes
Confidence Level: 95% 
meaning z‐score of 1.96

( ) ( )
50 * 50 100
* 1.96 * 1 ‐
100 200

Processing Time!
• Why is sampling error important?
• What do you need to calculate 
sampling error?
• What would you do if you are 
dealing with a small population?

( p * q
n
* z ) *( )