28 septembre 2018 www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
% 30.4 19.1 31.4 15.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 -
sièges 42 14 63 6 0 0 0 0
Chances de gagner* 7.9% 0.0% 90.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 0.1% 0.0% 34.0% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind PLQ PQ CAQ QS Vert PCQ NPDQ Ind
Abitibi-Est 28.7% 23.6% 30.1% 17.5% 0.1% 39% 9% 51% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 25.5% 27.2% 27.6% 19.2% 0.1% 0.4% 24% 38% 37% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Acadie 61.9% 6.5% 15.6% 12.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 41.7% 15.6% 21.6% 18.8% 1.7% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 28.6% 25.8% 32.9% 10.2% 2.1% 0.4% 26% 12% 62% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 21.2% 8.8% 53.9% 12.1% 1.4% 2.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 26.8% 1.6% 59.0% 9.7% 2.9% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Sud 41.9% 0.0% 45.5% 8.8% 0.2% 3.6% 34% 0% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 20.8% 32.4% 32.1% 12.6% 1.6% 0.5% 1% 55% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 38.1% 8.0% 41.5% 9.7% 2.7% 34% 0% 66% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Berthier 7.1% 30.6% 43.3% 17.0% 2.1% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 12.2% 28.0% 39.6% 18.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 8% 91% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Blainville 22.0% 22.3% 42.7% 11.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 31.1% 36.9% 13.6% 18.2% 0.1% 21% 79% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Borduas 11.1% 24.4% 44.5% 17.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 51.2% 11.7% 17.3% 17.0% 1.9% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 21.7% 29.0% 24.6% 22.5% 2.2% 7% 64% 19% 9% 0% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 27.3% 13.5% 41.2% 17.3% 0.7% 5% 0% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 14.5% 26.6% 43.0% 12.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0% 2% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 24.6% 22.0% 38.7% 13.7% 0.2% 0.7% 3% 1% 96% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 43.2% 10.0% 28.4% 18.3% 0.1% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 26.8% 15.0% 41.9% 14.0% 2.3% 2% 0% 98% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 21.3% 30.3% 34.3% 13.7% 0.5% 1% 32% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 40.6% 17.2% 28.8% 11.3% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 93% 0% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 25.6% 4.0% 51.3% 9.5% 0.4% 8.6% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chicoutimi 21.2% 29.1% 27.8% 20.1% 1.4% 0.4% 6% 55% 37% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 66.0% 6.3% 20.0% 5.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 18.2% 10.4% 57.1% 10.9% 3.0% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 31.7% 15.6% 36.1% 14.0% 2.7% 28% 0% 72% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 76.2% 1.0% 9.5% 8.9% 3.1% 0.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 16.9% 25.7% 43.9% 12.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 14.0% 19.6% 50.3% 14.5% 1.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 28.7% 25.1% 30.0% 15.8% 0.4% 37% 15% 49% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 26.5% 31.9% 23.7% 17.5% 0.4% 18% 74% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 45.7% 15.8% 26.5% 8.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.5% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 22.7% 43.8% 15.9% 17.6% 0.0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 43.5% 9.9% 27.7% 18.3% 0.5% 0.1% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 10.2% 12.2% 10.2% 64.5% 2.8% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Granby 7.4% 14.2% 63.2% 14.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 21.6% 24.1% 40.3% 12.8% 0.9% 0.4% 1% 2% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 16.5% 32.0% 12.7% 38.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 31% 0% 69% 0% 0% 0%
Hull 40.6% 13.4% 22.4% 22.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 98% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 34.7% 12.8% 35.1% 14.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 49% 0% 51% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 14.1% 22.8% 45.0% 16.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 38.0% 31.7% 12.4% 17.9% 75% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 69.3% 1.0% 14.1% 8.7% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 20.9% 19.5% 30.8% 25.4% 0.5% 2.3% 0.6% 5% 2% 76% 17% 0% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 68.7% 1.5% 13.4% 14.4% 1.8% 0.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 31.8% 19.8% 26.9% 17.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.5% 75% 1% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Johnson 13.6% 23.7% 44.5% 16.1% 0.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 7.1% 44.5% 39.2% 8.5% 0.8% 0% 78% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 15.4% 31.9% 36.0% 16.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0% 33% 67% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 12.0% 35.5% 33.3% 17.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 65% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 17.4% 33.5% 36.4% 11.4% 1.3% 0% 39% 61% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 64.6% 3.7% 16.1% 15.3% 0.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 19.9% 7.0% 57.8% 12.4% 0.5% 2.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 51.6% 6.6% 29.0% 11.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 41.2% 15.6% 26.4% 13.1% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 25.1% 20.4% 40.9% 11.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 2% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 2.6% 24.8% 59.5% 11.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 34.3% 9.1% 13.1% 40.4% 2.3% 0.3% 0.7% 28% 0% 0% 72% 0% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 36.4% 26.3% 26.3% 8.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.5% 83% 9% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 26.4% 22.4% 35.5% 14.3% 1.4% 11% 2% 87% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 5.6% 27.6% 49.0% 15.8% 0.8% 1.2% 0% 1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 21.4% 11.8% 51.1% 12.2% 1.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 31.1% 11.4% 42.5% 11.8% 0.2% 2.9% 8% 0% 92% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Louis-Hébert 19.9% 15.1% 49.7% 11.2% 1.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 58.3% 10.1% 17.6% 10.2% 3.3% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 17.8% 34.2% 27.3% 17.2% 3.0% 0.5% 0% 84% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 43.8% 12.3% 24.1% 13.6% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 26.2% 19.6% 38.9% 14.2% 0.2% 0.8% 5% 0% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 9.3% 27.4% 49.8% 11.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 10.8% 52.1% 19.8% 17.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 30.4% 23.5% 18.7% 24.7% 2.0% 0.6% 70% 14% 2% 15% 0% 0% 0%
Mégantic 29.7% 22.7% 31.4% 15.9% 0.4% 39% 4% 57% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 18.8% 11.9% 12.9% 54.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 43.2% 20.8% 26.9% 7.5% 1.7% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 10.4% 27.8% 48.6% 11.5% 0.8% 0.9% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 23.3% 20.3% 43.8% 12.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1% 0% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 22.0% 15.0% 43.4% 14.5% 1.5% 3.7% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 54.7% 7.2% 16.4% 16.6% 3.5% 1.2% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 68.5% 2.6% 17.2% 6.0% 4.1% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 16.5% 15.7% 48.9% 16.9% 0.2% 1.9% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 65.8% 1.0% 12.7% 13.0% 6.2% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 29.2% 20.3% 30.9% 18.6% 0.4% 0.6% 40% 2% 57% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 37.4% 16.0% 28.0% 18.1% 0.5% 0.1% 88% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 16.5% 31.7% 31.2% 20.7% 0% 55% 43% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 59.1% 0.3% 21.5% 18.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 30.5% 8.8% 45.0% 13.4% 2.3% 3% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Prévost 11.6% 26.0% 45.1% 16.8% 0.4% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 19.2% 41.3% 23.5% 15.1% 0.8% 0% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 13.8% 27.1% 45.4% 11.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 14.8% 28.1% 40.1% 13.9% 2.1% 1.1% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 24.9% 20.6% 35.2% 16.6% 1.7% 1.0% 7% 1% 91% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rimouski 18.4% 31.9% 30.9% 18.7% 0.1% 1% 58% 41% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 39.8% 15.6% 26.3% 18.1% 0.1% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 74.4% 1.0% 12.2% 7.7% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 42.6% 26.0% 17.6% 13.3% 0.4% 98% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 22.5% 30.0% 15.2% 29.5% 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 6% 57% 0% 37% 0% 0% 0%
Rousseau 2.3% 30.9% 50.5% 15.7% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue20.1% 24.8% 27.9% 26.7% 0.1% 0.4% 5% 22% 46% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-François 27.9% 26.1% 26.1% 18.4% 1.6% 43% 29% 27% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 42.5% 17.1% 17.2% 17.4% 4.2% 1.1% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 16.7% 21.6% 44.5% 16.7% 0.5% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 16.2% 23.5% 41.9% 16.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 11.4% 31.6% 41.3% 13.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 63.7% 1.0% 17.9% 11.8% 3.1% 1.9% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 21.6% 18.8% 13.0% 44.4% 2.0% 0.2% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 34.3% 22.4% 33.4% 8.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 54% 2% 44% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 17.8% 28.4% 40.4% 11.5% 0.7% 1.3% 0% 7% 93% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 25.6% 24.1% 25.5% 23.1% 1.3% 0.5% 34% 23% 32% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Soulanges 41.7% 17.8% 28.0% 10.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 22.2% 27.0% 32.7% 16.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 4% 22% 73% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 22.1% 20.4% 21.8% 34.6% 0.5% 0.5% 4% 2% 4% 91% 0% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 13.4% 29.5% 43.6% 12.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 26.7% 21.1% 33.9% 16.6% 0.2% 1.4% 16% 2% 82% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 29.9% 25.9% 27.5% 15.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 51% 19% 29% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vachon 25.1% 26.7% 34.2% 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 8% 16% 76% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 29.2% 12.1% 41.9% 13.8% 0.5% 2.5% 5% 0% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vaudreuil 49.7% 11.4% 25.1% 10.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 11.4% 35.3% 38.8% 12.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0% 37% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 40.7% 18.4% 18.4% 16.9% 4.0% 1.0% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Viau 54.1% 7.6% 14.8% 22.6% 0.3% 0.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vimont 43.0% 18.5% 28.2% 7.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 63.9% 1.0% 16.2% 12.7% 5.0% 0.7% 0.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)