NESTLE INDIA

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
S.No. Topic Number
1. Executive Summary 3
2. Drivers of growth in FMCG sector in India 3
Size of Market for Consumer Goods and Growth
3. 4
Prospects
4. Company's corporate strategy to increase its ROE 5
Three major risks that could threaten company’s
5. 6
profitability
6. Competitor analysis across similar industry 8
7. Ratio Analysis 8
8. Interpretation 9
9. Conclusion
9. References 19
 3

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Nestle India is a subsidiary of Nestle Switzerland. Nestle India primarily operates in FMCG and
packaged foods industry to serve the Indian consumers with global products at a very high quality
and a very rich experience. It is also committed to long term shareholder satisfaction and
sustainable growth in India. The founding principles of Nestle are honesty, integrity and fairness
in its business.
Nestle India trades on NSE as ‘NESTLEIND’. It sells variety of milk products, beverages like
Nescafe etc., and other brands like Maggi, Kit Kat etc. Its major suppliers are farmers and it sells
products to almost all segments in the country. Lately it is exporting in the Indian subcontinent,
Middle east and Asia Pacific regions. It employs about 7500+ employees who are always coming
up with innovative strategies to boost profits. In terms of financial prowess of Nestle, it is the
undisputed market leader with INR 1037b market cap. It is also facing lot of competition in the
market by emerging players like Patanjali and other Herbal, Ayurvedic & Natural (HAN) players.

DRIVERS OF GROWTH IN FMCG SECTOR IN INDIA

“Nestle India is committed to long term shareholder satisfaction

and sustainable growth in India.”

The major drivers of growth in this sector are as follows:

1. Rising per capita income: As of the latest fiscal year end in March 2018, per capita
income in India grew by 8.6% to INR 1,12,835. This will translate in an upgradation of
lifestyle of consumers. With a rising income, consumers would be more willing to pay for
goods such as beverages, chocolates etc.

2. Rising availability and accessibility: With the advent of technology-based delivery

service providers such as Grofers and Big Basket, as well as Amazon venturing into
grocery and essentials business, the availability and accessibility of consumer goods has
increased multi-fold. Now consumers can buy these goods with far greater convenience,
which will lead to an uplift in the sales of these goods.

3. Rising pace of urbanisation and nuclear families: With the Indian government’s
initiative to build 100 smart cities, India is on the brink of stepping into an era of massive
urbanisation. In fact, nations such as Germany have agreed to partner with India in the
urbanisation wave and provide financial and technical assistance in the range of one billion
 4

Euros till 2022. India is also slowly moving to nuclear households. As per a Boston
Consulting Group report, nuclearisation is likely to add about 10 million households by
2020. Put together, these factors will lead to huge demand for the FMCG sector.

4. Rising demand from Tier II and III cities: Consumers spend most of their income on
FMCG products and with an increase in income, consumers in the tier II and tier III cities
are expected to switch to branded products. Also, with higher disposable income, the
middle-class income group is expected to switch to ‘premium’ products which translates
to better revenues for the companies in FMCG sector.

SIZE OF MARKET FOR CONSUMER GOODS AND GROWTH

PROSPECTS

FMCG is the fourth largest sector in India. As per the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the Indian
FMCG market is estimated at about US$ 185 billion or about Rs. 12.6 trillion. By 2020, top lines
in the sector are expected to reach US$104 billion. Food and Beverages, which is the segment
where Nestle India is primarily active, accounts for 19% of market share in the sector. According
to a Boston Consulting Group report, on an overall basis, the share of the branded firms in the
FMCG sector stands at about a third. India's organized FMCG sector is estimated to grow at a pace
of 14-15% on a year on year basis per annum for the next decade. The most growth is expected in
the packaged foods, edible oils and home and personal care segments of the FMCG sector. There
has been a shift in consumer perspective in terms of lifestyle, so more of healthy snack alternatives
like oats, fibre-based biscuits, or wellness-based products like green tea, or Ayurveda based
products like Amla juice and other nutrition supplements. According to industry estimates, India’s
natural products segment contributed to 41% of the personal care products market in 2017,
generating US$2.5 billion in revenue. By 2022, India expects the market for Ayurvedic products
to reach US$8 billion.
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COMPANY'S CORPORATE STRATEGY TO INCREASE ROE

Nestle has taken up several corporate strategies to improve its Return on Equity for its investors.
(ROE = Return on Assets (ROA) x Leverage, where: Leverage = Equity Multiplier) These are:

• To improve net margin: Nestle India follows a value-driven strategy to support the volume-
led growth platform which has the scope to expand beyond its focus of 100 top towns. It has
increased its utilization to give higher margins (lower fixed costs per unit). Nestle launches
several products in a year but also discontinues some products not meeting the profit
expectations. The company is focusing on launching of higher margin, special “health” focused
products for special dietary needs and protein supplements. Foraying into new categories and
expansion to become a multi-product and multi-category company (entered the pet care,
premium coffee and snacks segments recently) to leverage distribution and leveraging existing
brand image.

• Asset turnover ratio: Cluster-based organizational structure to improve volume-led growth

(higher utilization of fixed assets) through selectivity and ‘locally’ focused products. The
company would launch regional variants of its products in categories such as sauces, coffee
and confectionery). The company is also increasing product penetration across rural and semi-
 6

rural markets to lead to higher utilization of manufacturing plant (more sales) as well as
distribution (distributing in semi-rural/rural is an extension of current distribution channel
thereby increasing their efficiency in the common part of the distribution chain). Nestle is
improving Net Working Capital to use ‘net’ assets more efficiently.

• Equity Multiplier: Nestle India is a debt-free company by choice as its balance sheet has <1%
of its total assets as debt from 2014-18 (and in 8 out of past 10 years). Equity Multiplier is 1.

MAJOR RISKS THAT COULD THREATEN PROFITABILITY

1. Rise of Herbal, Ayurvedic and Natural (HAN) products

Indian consumer incomes are slowly rising, and they can afford to pay more for the products
they like. The consumers are also becoming health and nutrition conscious which again helps
the perception of HAN products as good for health. The socio-political scenario in India and
the branding of make in India has given rise to HAN popularity in India. It has also put severe
dent in the revenue of FMCG companies.
Other than the large number of local players other FMCG giants are also entering the game
with their own versions and brands of Ayurvedic products. Nestle needs to make quick product
introductions into this category or see the segment fade away from them.

2. Defending its market share and position

Nestle is the market leader in packaged foods segment. Due to this it is harder for it to
consistently maintain sales and revenue and drive growth. The main reason for this is lack of
product diversification and new product introductions.
Indian consumers’ incomes are rising, and they love to buy premium products to show their
status. This is evident in buying of premium chocolate brands, biscuits and processed foods
etc. Nestle is still catering to the mass market and it is losing touch with this new segment.
 7

However, Nestle has identified this risk and is currently introducing new products like Maggi
Masala-iron fortified, Maggi nutrilicious, Kit Kat Dessert Delight etc. They are also trying to
create a perception that Nestle products are good for health to attract the new millennials who
are health conscious.

3. Keeping up with technological advances

Nestle needs to keep a tab on advances in technology both in packaging and for its own internal
business processes. Packaging is also one of the important factors which makes consumer buy
the product. There needs to be more focus on attractive packaging and differentiation. FMCG
thrives on fast information communication and quick action to any problems. Nestle needs to
build the best information communication systems for logistics, supply chain and distribution
networks.

COMPETITOR ANALYSIS ACROSS SIMILAR INDUSTRY

Market Cap in T12M P/C Div.

Company P/E ratio
billion INR EPS ratio Yield
Nestle 1037 77.25 139.23 30.27 0.69%
Britannia 767.5 76.46 83.64 66.98 0.39%
GlaxoSmith Con 285.7 40.79 166.47 37.35 1.10%
Varun Beverages 132.8 59.14 12.28 23.23 0.34%
Hatsun Agro 107.5 114.5 5.78 40.06 0.60%

Four-firm concentration ratio of food packaging industry

• Total Sales (in INR) of
o Nestle 101,35.11 (in crores) = 101,351.1 (in Million) [7]
o Brittania 92,82.08 (in crores) = 92,820.8 (in Million) [8]
o GlaxoSmith 28,20.0324 (in crores) = 28,200.324 (in Million) [9]
o Varun Beverages 45,16.236 (in crores) = 45,162.36 (in Million) [10]
o Hatsun Agro 42,89.7985 (in crores) = 42,897.985 (in Million) [11]

• Total Market Share of packaged food in India = 2,791.8 (in Billion) [12]

• Four Firm Concentration Ratio – 0.10109

(Nestle; Britannia; Varun Beverages; Hatsun Agro)
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DEGREE OF COMPETITION IN FOOD PACKAGING

INDUSTRY
The packaged food industry is mainly unorganized with 75% of the processing units belonging to
the unorganised category, the organised category though small, is growing fast.[13]
The industry will continue to post double digit growth over the forecast period, mainly due to
rising demand for convenience because of the increasingly hectic pace of modern life, as well as
growing awareness and availability. [14]

The concept of packaged food has just started gaining acceptance in India. With the changing trend
of lifestyle and people’s acceptance to packaged foods to include it in their daily life the industry
has huge potential for expansion in the coming years.

With this trend it can be safely assumed that the degree of competition within the industry is high,
but also the threat of new entrants is low because of the various factors involved like equipment,
high cost infrastructure etc. Also, unlike for small scale industries, fewer schemes have been
designed to promote scale by incentivizing large scale investors. [15] Due to intense competition
in the end-user market, the cost of equipment and the low running cost remain the primary factors
that influence the sale of the packaging equipment. [16]

RATIO ANALYSIS

The analysis of these ratios is given below for Nestle,

Return on Equity
The return on Equity for Nestle India has exhibited a dip in 2016, attributed mainly to the trough
in Profits after Tax while the average shareholder’s equity has grown at a slower pace. The firm
had been efficient in utilizing the invested funds into greater gains but with a slight shift in 2016
because of the Maggi noodles lead issue.
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ROE
40.00%
36.56%
35.00%
36.24%
30.00% 32.04%
25.00%

20.00%

15.00%
2015 2016 2017

ROE

Return on Sales
The profit margin for Nestle India has also exhibited a trend similar to ROE, owing to the slight
decrease in profits after tax, while sales have not matched the growth in profits after tax. In 2017,
Nestle was able to generate 12.02% of operating cash on its revenues while its competitor
Britannia stood at 10.02% in the same year.

ROS
13.00%
12.50% 12.54%
12.00% 12.02%
11.50%
11.00%
10.68%
10.50%
10.00%
9.50%
2015 2016 2017

ROS
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Asset Turnover Ratio

The Asset Turnover ratio has remained almost constant around 140% for Nestle India in the period
2015 to 2017. This is significantly lower when compared to its peer Britannia and suggests that
Nestle India is not using its assets as efficiently as Britannia.

Asset Turnover
146.87%
150.00% 142.43% 143.82%

140.00%

130.00%

120.00%

110.00%

100.00%
2015 2016 2017

Asset Turnover

Return on Assets
The Return on Assets has exhibited a trough in 2016, owing to a fall in the profits after tax for
Nestle India. In term of assets, the firm had been involved in increasing its current assets by
investments, another major contribution was through cash and cash equivalents.

ROA
20.00%
18.00%
17.29%
17.87%
16.00%
15.69%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
2015 2016 2017

ROA

Leverage
The use of leverage on equity side has been slowly growing in the period of 2015-2017. This
indicates that Nestle India has been issuing equity as a means to raise capital in the recent years.
 11

Leverage
220.00%

215.00%
211.45%
210.00%

205.00%
202.80% 204.20%
200.00%
2015 2016 2017

Leverage

Advanced Dupont Model

Return on Net Operating Assets
The company has been able to use its assets to generate a very good return on net assets and that
is indicated in the trend of RNOA for Nestle over the 3-year period.
RNOA for Nestle India had dipped in 2016, but the firm has recovered on the ratio in 2017. This
can be attributed to steady growth in both net operating assets and net operating profit. This
suggests that the firm has been able to employ its operating assets in a manner that yields higher
net operating profits.

Return on Net Operating Assets

0.39 0.38
0.38
0.37 0.36
0.36
0.35 0.34
0.34
0.33
0.32
0.31
2015 2016 2017

Return on Net Operating Assets

Financial Leverage
We can see from the graph and the values of financial leverage that Nestle has not been
sufficiently utilizing its strong position with respect to assets to generate more debt capital.
This ratio has been growing quickly for Nestle India from 2015 to 2017. This suggests that the
firm has been making greater use of debt to raise capital as compared to issuing stock to its
shareholders.
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This is primarily because the company had been extremely conservative in raising capital
through debt financing and they needed to grow their businesses extremely fast after the Maggi
fiasco and therefore they leveraged their strong financial position to raise more capital.

Financial Leverage
1.20% 1.02%
1.00% 0.81%
0.80% 0.64%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
0.00%
2015 2016 2017

Financial Leverage

Net Borrowing Cost

Due to its past mishaps with Maggi, it had to recover its lost market share very fast and it could
leverage its low value of financial liabilities and strong financial leverage to borrow more to
generate more capital to grow the business. It has invested heavily in the last couple of years to
grow the business.
This has grown by leaps and bounds for Nestle India. This suggests that the firm is relying
heavily on financing its operations and the cost for doing so has been increasing every year.

Net Borrowing Cost

2.50 2.25

2.00 1.70

1.50
1.00
0.50 0.11
0.00
2015 2016 2017

Net Borrowing Cost

Operating Spread
The spread has become largely negative for the firm; starting with 24.96% in 2015 to -131.66%
in 2017. The spread was at a negative peak of -191.55 in 2016 when Nestle India had witnessed a
dip in its profits after tax. This implies that the percentage growth on return on net assets has
been inadequate to cover-the net borrowing cost for Nestle India.
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Advanced Dupont Model

ROE = RNOA + Operating spread*Financial Leverage
= 37.90% + (-131.60% * 1.02%)
= 36.56 %

ROE = PAT/Equity
= 36.56 %
Thus, Advanced Dupont model holds good for this set of Calculations.

Gross Profit Margin

Gross Profit Margin

0.505 0.501
0.498
0.500
0.495
0.490
0.484
0.485
0.480
0.475
2015 2016 2017

Gross Profit Margin

We can see from the above graph that although it may seem like the gross profit margins have
declined, they have remained approximately similar over the three years. This shows that the
production processes have been approximately maintained at an efficient level. We can also see
that the decrease in gross profit margins has been large because of the increasing cost of goods
sold over the three years.
The profit margins for Nestle are really great when compared with competitors like Britannia
(GPM – 13.87%) and GlaxoSmithKline (GPM – 16.38%).

Cost of good sold

60,000.00 52,317.73
46,995.93
42,327.67
40,000.00

20,000.00

0.00
2015 2016 2017

Cost of good sold

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Operating expenses to Sales

OPEX to sales
89.00% 88.71%

88.50%
88.00%
87.43% 87.41%
87.50%
87.00%
86.50%
2015 2016 2017

OPEX to sales

We can see from the graph that Operating expenses to sales have been relatively stagnant it
means that Nestle has been doing its business without any exorbitant additional expenses or
overheads in operations although the revenue and profits have increased significantly.

Earnings per Share

EPS
140.000 127.048
110.345 104.956
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
0.000
2015 2016 2017

EPS

We can see that earnings per share had declined for Nestle in 2016 with respect to 2015, this can
be attributed to the loss of revenue from the Maggi fiasco, but the company was able to bounce
back very well in 2017 and the earning per share have increased significantly over the last two
years.

Debtor Turnover
Nestle has been performing really well over the last three years in efficiently collecting the credit
sales from its customers. It has seen significant improvement in debtor turnover ratio compared
 15

to its past performance and competitors. Currently, its sales form 109.06 times the average trade
receivables.

Debtor Collection Period

Debtor Collection Period is decreasing at a slow pace, but the performance of this ratio is better
compared to its competitor Britannia which is almost double that of Nestle. Also, the time taken
to collect the trade receivables is decreasing over the last three years.
Thus, it can be inferred that the possibility of conversion to Bad Debt Expense for Nestle will be
low.

Inventory Turnover Ratio and Inventory Holding period

Nestle’s inventory turnover ratio was on the increasing trend over the last three years, it means
that Nestle was able to sell its inventory faster than the previous years.
Nestle’s inventory holding period also decreased over the years which showed its efficiency in
sales and operations.

Payables Turnover and Days payable

Nestle’s payables turnover ratio has largely remained the same over the last 3 years which shows
there are no significant changes in the supplier and company relationship and dynamics for the
current and foreseeable future.

Liquidity Analysis
Current Ratio
The Current Ratio of the firm has been consistently growing (above 2) which usually implies that
the assets are highly liquid and thus the business has enough cash to be able to pay its debts.
Here the ratio is high because of high account receivables i.e. the firm has not been able to
collect the cash generated through sales which is not a positive sign.
It has an extremely high current ratio compared to its closest competitors like Britannia (CR –
1.59) and GlaxoSmithKline (CR – 1.42). Although Nestle has increased its borrowings, it is still
more conservative in terms of borrowing from financial institutions to expand and grow its
business than its competitors. It can more effectively use its strong financial position by
deploying assets more effectively to boost growth. We can also see from the following graph that
current ratio has increased gradually over the years.
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Current ratio
3.00 2.64
2.40
2.50 1.97
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
2015 2016 2017

Current ratio

Quick Ratio
Quick ratio measures the firm's ability to pay off short-term obligations without relying on the
sale of inventory. Nestle has also been able to perform well in the quick ratio as well with the
ability to pay Rs. 2.033 for every 1 rupee of liability without relying on the inventory. Its major
competitor lacks the ability to pay Rs 1.16 for every 1 rupee of liability without relying on the
inventory.
Quick ratio for Nestle has also dramatically increased over the last 3 years.

Quick ratio
2.500
2.033
2.000 1.714
1.318
1.500
1.000
0.500
0.000
2015 2016 2017

Quick ratio

This means that the company has added to its assets more rapidly than it has borrowed in the
same period. It effectively means that Nestle can borrow still more in case it needs to raise more
capital to fund more projects.

Solvency
Debt to Equity Ratio
Debt to equity ratio for Nestle is 1% which is extremely low. It means it is not using enough
finances and bank instruments to increase its operating investments and thereby potentially earn
more revenues. We can also see from the previous year trends that Nestle has tried to increase its
debt to finance more operations, but it has been very cautious in doing that.
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Debt to Equity Ratio of Nestle is 0.010 (1%) which makes it difficult for investors to purchase
the stock of the company. It implies that Nestle is financing very low amount through
borrowings for its increased operations.

Debt to Equity ratio

0.012 0.010 0.010
0.010
0.008 0.006
0.006
0.004
0.002
0.000
2015 2016 2017

Debt to Equity ratio

Interest Coverage
Nestle has reached a strong financial position and it is able to finance its loans very effectively. It
used to be very conservative in taking loans earlier and it has increased this in the recent years
but its ability to pay its interests on those loans is unquestionably strong. We can also see from
the trend of interest coverage that Nestle’s position with respect to paying interest on its debt has
become stronger over the last year. We can also see that it had an extremely high-interest
coverage in 2015, it was a time when Nestle had very low debt which it has strategically
improved in the last two years.

Interest Coverage
300.00 248.30
250.00
200.00
150.00
100.00
50.00 18.00 21.01
0.00
2015 2016 2017

Interest Coverage

CONCLUSION
Nestle is a market leader in its category and is doing well against the competitors and industry
benchmarks as is evident from the analysis above. It has minimal borrowings and can leverage it
now to increase its borrowings. We recommend buying the stock.
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APPENDIX
Parameters of interest 2017 2016 2015
Average Assets 70,865.25 64,508.55 59,553.75
Average Shareholder’s Equity 33,514.60 31,590.95 29,365.35
Net Operating Assets 34,557.30 33,154.80 30,535.90
Average Net Operating Assets 33,856.05 31,845.35 29,551.85
Average Borrowings 341.45 254.40 186.50
Net Financing Expense 578.97 572.733 20.727
Profit before EI & DO 12,251.90 10,121.40 10,641.10
Net Operating Profit 12,830.87 10,694.13 10,661.83
Net Sales 101,921.80 94,745.70 84,824.80
Cost of Goods Sold 52,317.73 46,995.93 42,327.67
Tax rate 37% 37% 37%
Profit before EI & DO 12,251.90 9,905.80 624.30

Ratios 2017 2016 2015

Return on Equity 36.56% 32.04% 36.24%
Return on Sales or Profit Margin 12.02% 10.68% 12.54%
Asset Turnover 143.82% 146.87% 142.43%
Return on Assets 17.29% 15.69% 17.87%
Leverage – Measure 1 211.45% 204.20% 202.80%
Return on Net Operating Assets 37.90% 33.58% 36.08%
Financial Leverage -2 1.02% 0.81% 0.64%
Net Borrowing Cost 169.56% 225.13% 11.11%
Operating Spread -131.66% -191.55% 24.96%
Advanced Dupont model 36.56% 32.04% 36.24%
Gross Margin 48.38% 50.06% 49.79%
Operating Expenses to Sales 87.41% 88.71% 87.43%
Earnings Per Share in INR 1270.483 1049.557 1103.448
Debtor Turnover 109.066 107.452 95.566
Debt Collection Period 3.301 3.350 3.767
Inventory Turnover 5.679 5.338 5.085
Inventory Holding Period 63.393 67.443 70.801
Payables Turnover 4.897 5.228 4.714
Days Payable 73.515 68.862 76.368
Cash to Cash Cycle -6.822 1.932 -1.800
Current Ratio 2.638 2.402 1.966
Quick Ratio 2.033 1.714 1.318
 19

Debt to Equity Ratio 0.010 0.010 0.006

Interest Coverage 21.014 17.999 248.304

Change in
Inventory
(FG+WIP+SIT)
COGS
+ Purchase of
SIT + Cost of
Manufacturing
2017 2016 2015
Change in Inventory
-795.60 -76.60 119.70
(FG+WIP+SIT)
Purchase of SIT 1,747.60 1,153.80 980.70
Cost of Manufacturing
Cost of materials Consumed 42,316.60 37,750.90 33,588.70
Power and fuel 2,884.40 2,327.90 2,219.90 Other Expenses
Contract manufacturing charges 374.40 378.00 397.50 Other Expenses
(Assumption -
Maintenance and
repairs of Plant and
Machinery ~ 75% of
Maintenance and repairs (Plant
754.20 825.20 659.50 total - Based on
& Machinery)
previous year data
(year 2016- 78.90%;
Year 2015 -
73.60%)
Consumption of stores and
503.80 452.60 412.70
spare parts
Depreciation Cost (1/3 of total) 1,140.83 1,178.90 1,157.53
Employee benefit cost (1/3 of
3,391.50 3,005.23 2,791.43
total)
COGS 52,317.73 46,995.93 42,327.67

PURCHASES

Purchases of Raw Materials 34,312.70 32,115.00 28,007.00

Purchases of Packaging Materials 7053.7 6696.40 5480.5
 20

Purchases of Stock in Trade 1,747.60 1,153.80 980.70

Purchases of Stores and Spares 561.70 513.20 371.4
NET PURCHASES 43675.70 40478.40 34839.60

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