Further

THE MILITARY BALANCE 2018 Assessments

LAND WARFARE
„„ Most major land forces are now engaged in the
modernisation and upgrade of their heavy armoured-
vehicle fleets, but all are struggling with the complex
challenge of balancing equipment costs and programme
timelines. In contrast, cheaper and less complex ‘armoured
utility vehicles’ continue to prove popular with existing
and new armoured-vehicle manufacturers.
„„ The United States and the United Kingdom have both
begun to create specialised formations to undertake
‘train, advise and assist’ operations, with 2017 seeing the
activation of the US 1st Security Force Assistance Brigade
and the UK Specialised Infantry Group. This requirement
is not limited to Western forces, as illustrated by Iranian,
Russian and Turkish experiences in Syria.
„„ The developing ballistic-missile capability of states such as
North Korea, and non-state actors such as those in Yemen,
has resulted in increased demand for the deployment of
missile-defence systems. However, the availability of US
assets to meet this demand is limited: two of the seven
US THAAD batteries are now permanently deployed in
Guam and South Korea, and six of the army’s 17 Patriot
batteries are currently either forward deployed to or on
rotation in Asia and the Middle East. This has prompted
some countries, such as Saudi Arabia, to invest in their
own missile-defence capabilities.
„„ China’s reform of the People’s Liberation Army has
overhauled the allocation of forces in its remaining Group
Armies, leaving all 13 with a standard structure combining
six combined-arms manoeuvre brigades with six support
brigades. Several brigades have been re-based as part of
this process; some have moved considerable distances.
„„ Russia’s Tornado-S 300mm multiple-rocket launcher
has reportedly entered service in the Western Military
District, probably with the 79th Rocket Brigade at Tver,
replacing the existing Smerch launchers and offering an
increased range of up to 120km.
MILITARY AEROSPACE
„„ Russia’s fleets of tanker, airborne early warning and
control (AWACS) and transport aircraft are now a focus

China: People’s Liberation Army main battle tanks

Although Russia and the United States both maintain substantial numbers of main PLA main battle tank fleet, 1997–2017
ba
le tanks in store, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) currently has the
world’s largest active-service tank fleet. The volume and cost involved in producing 8,000
sufficient modern tank designs to equip this force has, however, proved to be a
7,000 1,600 510 1,280
significant challenge for the PLA, and it is only recently that the percentage of the 2,300
tank force so-equipped has risen above 50%. 6,000
The original ZTZ-59 remains in service with a significant proportion of the PLA, 1,500 1,300
3,390
despite being effectively obsolete, even in its upgraded forms. Early indigenous 5,000 800
Chinese tank designs, such as the ZTZ-79 and ZTZ-88, had limited production runs
and are now only in the inventory of a small number of units in northern and 4,000
500
western China. The reorganisation of PLA manoeuvre units into combined-arms 6,200
brigades in 2017 may result in these second-generation designs being removed from 3,000
5,000 5,000 4,600
service altogether as the overall size of the PLA’s tank fleet shrinks again.
2,000 2,850
The latest ZTZ-99A appears to have been produced in relatively small numbers,
and issued to strategic-reserve units near Beijing, possibly because of its relatively 1,000
high cost. The majority of China’s third-generation tanks are still versions of the late
1990s ZTZ-96 design. The PLA’s new ‘light’ tank, believed to have entered 0
production with the ZTQ-15 designation, weighs almost as much as a ZTZ-59, but 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
may nonetheless help fill the requirement for modern armour in southern China,
First generation Second generation Third generation
where the terrain is not suitable for heavier modern designs such as the ZTZ-99.
For the purposes of this analysis, generational status of each design is as below.

First generation Second generation Third generation

ZTZ-99

ZTZ-99A

ZTZ-59/ZTZ-59-II/ZTZ-59D ZTZ-79 ZTZ-88A/ZTZ-88B ZTZ-96/ZTZ-96A ZTZ-99/ZTZ-99A

• License built T-54 design
• In production 1958–78
• Upgraded versions developed in
the 1980s
• 100mm smoothbore main gun
(105mm rifled in 59-II and 59D)
• 36 tonnes combat weight
• Steel armour (reactive 59D only)
• Computer fire-control (59D only)
• In production 1978–80s
• 105mm rifled main gun
• 37 tonnes combat weight
• Steel armour
• In production 1988–90s
• 105mm rifled main gun
• 38 tonnes combat weight
• Steel armour
• Stabilised sights
• In production 1997–2005
• 125mm smoothbore main gun
• 42+ tonnes combat weight
• Steel/composite armour
(reactive 96A)
• Stabilised sights
• Reportedly being upgraded to
ZTZ-96B standard from 2017
• Currently in production
• 125mm smoothbore main gun
• 50+ tonnes combat weight
• Steel/composite/reactive
armour
• Stabilised sights
• Computer fire-control system
• Active-protection system (99A)

© IISS

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 THE MILITARY BALANCE 2018
Further Assessments
for long-overdue recapitalisation, although the types
being developed still owe much to the 1970’s Il-76 design.
For instance, the Beriev A-100 AWACS aircraft, which first
flew in December 2017, will eventually replace the air
force’s A-50 and A-50U Mainstay aircraft.
„„ The United States’ 2018 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR)
identified the SSC-8 Screwdriver – listed in The Military
Balance for the first time in the 2018 edition – as the system
central to Washington’s claim that Russia is in violation of
the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
The 9M729 (SSC-8) is a ground-launched cruise missile
that the US claims has a range far greater than the 500km
limit set by the INF Treaty.
„„ Ukraine has become the third country, along with Vietnam
and North Korea, to take the Russian 3M24 Uran (SS-N-
25 Switchblade) as the inspiration for the design of an
anti-ship missile. Ukraine’s Luch design bureau carried
out an initial booster firing of the Neptun missile on 30
January 2018. The basic North Korean ship-launched
system (Kumsong-3 (KN-SS-N-2 Stormpetrel)) may have
been in service for some time, with a coastal-defence
variant first seen in 2017.
„„ France and the UK are continuing concept work on the
Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon (FC/ASW) intended
to eventually replace such systems as the Storm Shadow/
SCALP EG land-attack cruise missiles, and the Harpoon
and Exocet anti-ship missiles. The aim is to identify the
best ‘mix of solutions’ to meet the range of requirements
presently covered by the differing types. FC/ASW is
anticipated to begin entering service in the early 2030s.
„„ China has continued to take delivery of the Xian Y-20
heavy transport aircraft. As of the end of 2017, at least
five aircraft, tentatively known as the Y-20A, were in
service with the PLA Air Force. The Y-20 is intended
to supplement and eventually replace the air force’s
Il-76 transport aircraft, and is likely to be used as the
basis for a tanker aircraft, replacing the H-6U and the
Il-78 Midas.
„„ The proliferation of armed Chinese  unmanned aerial
vehicles (UAVs) in the Middle East continues, with at
least four regional states, Egypt, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates, now assessed as operating
systems built by Chinese companies. Meanwhile, Iran and
Israel produce their own armed UAVs.
NAVAL AND MARITIME
„„ Asia-Pacific navies, including China, now field a greater
number of advanced air-defence surface combatants,
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equipped with phased-array radars and medium- to
long-range air-defence missiles, than European navies.
With the commissioning of HMAS Hobart, and with two
more vessels on the way, Australia is the latest regional
state to acquire this capability. There are now 31 such
vessels in Asia and 25 in Europe. By comparison, the US
Navy currently deploys 83 such platforms.
„„ China’s high rate of naval modernisation continued with
the launch of its first indigenously built aircraft carrier and
the first of a class of cruisers (Type-055) being launched
in 2017. The size of the nuclear-powered-submarine
fleet is also assessed to have increased, with the likely
introduction into service of four Shang  II (Type-093A)
attack submarines in 2016/17.
„„ The increasing level of cooperation between France, the
UK and the US on planned global carrier operations
is underscored by the announcement that French Navy
Rafale combat aircraft will deploy aboard a US Navy
aircraft carrier in preparation for the return from long refit
of the French carrier Charles De Gaulle. In the Anglo-French
summit communiqué in January, the two countries stated
they would support each other’s carrier deployments in
2019, while HMS Queen Elizabeth is still on trials.
„„ Significant Russian naval-shipbuilding projects (including
Yasen-M, Admiral Gorshkov and Ivan Gren) continue to fall
further behind schedule. Many Russian warships are
approaching 40 years in service, and are not likely to be
replaced on a one-for-one basis.
DEFENCE ECONOMICS
„„ In Asia, after several years of sustained real-terms
defence-spending growth at a rate above 5%, defence
spending grew by 2.2% in 2017. The share of Asian GDP
dedicated to defence remains below the world average,
at 1.43% in 2017. The world average was 1.99% in 2017.
„„ After large real-terms defence-spending cuts of 10% in
2016 and 9% in 2017, Russia is looking to stabilise its
total military expenditure at around US$59bn per annum
from 2018 to 2020.
„„ In Europe, real-terms defence-spending growth reached
3.6% in 2017, continuing the upward trajectory since 2014–
15. Initiatives were taken at the EU-level to increase joint
defence R&D spending levels, up to €500m (US$564m)
after 2020. However, even when taken jointly, EU member
states’ total defence R&D spending (US$10.6bn in 2016)
lags far behind that of the United States (US$64.9bn).
Furthermore, Lockheed Martin spent US$988m on defence
R&D in 2016 – more than Germany’s US$910m.