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Abstract—In the framework of competitive electricity markets, Market clearing prices are public information made available
power producers and consumers need accurate price forecasting by the MO. No other information is usually readily available.
tools. Price forecasts embody crucial information for producers For instance, aggregate offer and demand curves are not avail-
and consumers when planning bidding strategies in order to
maximize their benefits and utilities, respectively. This paper able in many electricity markets. For example, in the Califor-
provides two highly accurate yet efficient price forecasting tools nian market, aggregate supply and demand curve data are pub-
based on time series analysis: dynamic regression and transfer licly available for the day-ahead market on a three-month delay
function models. These techniques are explained and checked basis. In the Spanish market, aggregate supply and demand data
against each other. Results and discussions from real-world case are only available to the bidders with a three-month delay.
studies based on the electricity markets of mainland Spain and
California are presented. Producers and consumers rely on price forecast information
to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies. If a producer
Index Terms—Electricity markets, forecasting, market clearing has a good forecast of next-day market-clearing prices it can
price, time series analysis.
develop a strategy to maximize its own benefit [2] and estab-
lish a pool bidding technique to achieve its maximum benefit.
I. INTRODUCTION Similarly, once a good next-day price forecast is available, a
consumer can derive a plan to maximize its own utility using
T HE electric power industry in many countries all over the
world is moving from a centralized operational approach
to a competitive one. The understanding of electric power
the electricity purchased from the pool. If this consumer has
self-production capability, it can use it to protect itself against
high prices in the pool.
supply as a public service is being replaced by the notion that a
In a medium-term horizon (six months to one year), producers
competitive market is a more appropriate mechanism to supply
have to find out how much energy to sell through bilateral con-
energy to consumers with high reliability and low cost. tracts and how much energy to sell to the pool. Consumers have
An electricity market usually includes two instruments to fa- to make similar decisions on buying energy through bilateral
cilitate trade among power producers and consumers: the pool, contracts, or from the pool. For this type of portfolio decisions,
which is an e-commerce marketplace, and a framework to en- it is desirable to have available forecasts of price average values
able physical bilateral contracts. Financial contracts to hedge over a year horizon. Energy service companies (ESCOs) buy
against risk of price volatility are possible and advisable, but energy from the pool and from bilateral contracts to sell it to
they do not affect the physical operation of the system. their clients. These companies also need good short-term and
In the pool [power exchange (PX)], power producers [gener- long-term price forecast information to maximize their respec-
ating companies (GENCOs)] submit generation bids and their tive benefits.
corresponding bidding prices, and consumers [consumption This paper focuses on short-term decisions associated to the
companies (CONCOs)] do the same with consumption bids. pool. Therefore, only the forecasting of next-day prices is con-
The market operator (MO) uses a market-clearing tool to sidered. This fact implies that, for each day of the week, 24 price
clear the market. This tool is normally based on single-round forecasts must be computed.
auctions [1], and considers the hours of the market horizon Since next-day price forecasting is a crucial need for pro-
one at a time. A single-round auction is performed every ducers, consumers and energy service companies, this paper
hour to determine the resulting market clearing price in that proposes two efficient yet highly accurate next-day price fore-
hour and also the accepted production and consumption bids. casting tools: dynamic regression and transfer function models.
Ex post, either repair heuristics or adjustment markets, are They are based on time series analysis and are used to forecast
used to eliminate physical infeasibilities due to inter-temporal actual prices in the electricity markets of mainland Spain [3] and
constraints or network congestions. California [4].
Price forecasting techniques in power systems are relatively
recent procedures. In the past, demand was predicted in central-
Manuscript received April 13, 2001. This work was supported in part by the
Ministry of Science and Technology (Spain) and the European Union through ized markets [5]. Competition has opened a new field of study
Grant FEDER-CICYT 1FD97-1598. and there are already several techniques in use to forecast prices.
The authors are with E.T.S. de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Jump diffusion/mean reversion models have been applied by
Castilla-La Mancha, Ciudad Real 13071, Spain (e-mail: FcoJavier.Nogales@
uclm.es; Javier.Contreras@uclm.es; Rosa.Espinola@uclm.es). Skantze et al. [6] to model electricity prices. Fuzzy regression
Publisher Item Identifier S 0885-8950(02)03835-X. models that relate prices and demands have been applied to the
0885-8950/02$17.00 © 2002 IEEE
NOGALES et al.: FORECASTING NEXT-DAY ELECTRICITY PRICES BY TIME SERIES MODELS 343
Fig. 3. Forecast of November week in the Spanish market by dynamic Fig. 5. Forecast of April week in the Californian market by dynamic
regression. Prices in euros per megawatt hour. regression. Prices in dollars per megawatt hour.
In Step 0, all the parameters are set to zero. Then, an inspec- different from zero are selected, they are estimated in Step 1 as
tion of the residuals in Step 2 helps in identifying a set of pa- it is indicated in Section III.
rameters different from zero to build a refined model in Step 0.
After some iterations of this scheme, the series of residuals is C. Practical Refinements
checked to validate if it follows a white noise process and, if
Before a final model is identified and its parameters estimated
this checking is passed, final parameters different from zero are
using the available data, the following considerations have to be
selected.
made.
Final selected parameters of function in (1) that are
different from zero are those corresponding to indexes , 1, 1) For both models, a logarithmic transformation is applied
2, 3, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, 96, 97, 120, 121, 144, 145, 168, 169, to the price and demand data to achieve a more homoge-
192, and 193. Selected parameters of function in (1) neous variance. The resulting models are
that are different from zero are those corresponding to indexes
, 2, 3, 24, 25, 48, 49, 72, 73, 96, 97, 120, 121, 144, 145, (4)
168, 169, 192, and 193. Once these parameters are selected, they (5)
are estimated in Step 1, as it is indicated in Section III.
2) Due to unexpected or uncontrolled events in the elec-
B. Transfer Function Approach tricity markets, a high frequency of unusual prices can
arise. These unusual observations are called outliers in
A second method is proposed for dealing with serial correla-
the forecasting literature. As these events are not initially
tion. It includes a serially correlated error. Such an approach is
known, a procedure that detects and minimizes the effect
called transfer function model [12]. Specifically, it is assumed
of the outliers is necessary. With this adjustment, a better
that the price and demand series are both stationary (i.e., with
understanding of the series, a better modeling and esti-
constant mean and variance). The general form proposed to
mation, and finally, a better forecasting performance is
model the (price, demand) transfer function is
achieved. Additional information for outlier detection and
(2) adjustment can be found in [13].
3) To achieve more robust forecasts, another refinement is
where carried out. If a time series is log-transformed, the esti-
price at time ; mator of the mean is biased (underestimated). In order
a constant; to unbias this mean estimate, it is necessary to add half
demand at time ; of the variance to the forecast before taking its exponen-
polynomial function of the backshift tial to eliminate the logarithmic transformation. Addition-
operator. ally, confidence intervals of forecasts should be adjusted
is a disturbance term that follows an ARMA model [12] of to center them around the unbiased mean estimate [14].
the form In the following section, the performance of the two proposed
models (with practical refinements included) is compared.
(3)
III. NUMERICAL RESULTS
TABLE IV
TABLE II DAILY MEAN ERRORS OF NOVEMBER WEEK IN THE SPANISH MARKET
DAILY MEAN ERORS OF AUGUST WEEK IN THE SPANISH MARKET BY TRANSFER FUNCTION
BY TRANSFER FUNCTION
TABLE V
The SCA system [16] has been used to estimate the parame- DAILY MEAN ERRORS OF APRIL WEEK IN THE CALIFORNIAN MARKET
ters of the models in Step 1. The parameter estimation is based BY DYNAMIC REGRESSION
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In this paper, two forecasting models to predict electricity ated, 1994.
prices have been proposed: dynamic regression and transfer
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Average errors in the Spanish market are around 5% and around
Francisco J. Nogales received the B.S. degree in mathematics from Univer-
3% in the Californian market for the weeks under study. sidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain, in 1995, and the Ph.D. degree in
Price predictions obtained for the Spanish and Californian mathematics from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid in 2000.
electricity markets are accurate enough to be used by pro- He is currently an Assistant Professor of Statistics and Operations Research
at the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain. His research
ducers and consumers to prepare their corresponding bidding interests include planning and economics of power systems, optimization, de-
strategies. composition methods in mathematical programming problems, and forecasting.
348 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 17, NO. 2, MAY 2002
Javier Contreras (M’98) was born in Zaragoza, Spain, in 1965. He received Rosario Espínola received the B.S. degree in statistics from Universidad de
the B.S. degree in electrical engineering from the University of Zaragoza, the Granada, Granada, Spain, in 1999. She is currently pursuing the Ph.D. degree at
M.Sc. degree from the University of Southern California, Los Angeles, and the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain. Her research interests
Ph.D. degree from the University of California, Berkeley, in 1989, 1992, and include planning and economics of power systems, forecasting, and time series
1997, respectively. analysis.
He is currently Associate Professor at the Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha,
Ciudad Real, Spain. His research interests include power systems planning, op-
erations and economics, and electricity markets.
Antonio J. Conejo (S’86–M’91–SM’98) received the B.S. degree from the Uni-
versidad P. Comillas, Madrid, Spain, in 1983, the M.S. degree from MIT, Cam-
bridge, in 1987, and the Ph.D. degree from the Royal Institute of Technology,
Stockholm, Sweden, in 1990, all in electrical engineering.
He is currently Professor of Electrical Engineering at the Universidad de
Castilla-La Mancha, Ciudad Real, Spain. His research interests include con-
trol, operations, planning and economics of electric energy systems, as well as
optimization theory and its applications.