MEMO

From: Bold Blue Campaigns

To: Interested Parties
Date: 10/1/2018
Re: November General Election Poll Results in Florida’s 15th Congressional District
Contact: Steen Kirby
Campaigns and Data Specialist Bold Blue Campaigns
Cell: 202-417-7683
email: skirby@boldbluecampaigns.com

_____________________________________________________________________________________
Overview: In the DCCC “Red to Blue” Targeted Florida 15th Congressional District (Eastern
Hillsborough county, West/Central Polk County, and Eastern Lake County) Republican Ross
Spano is currently leading by a margin of 49% to 46% over Democrat Kristen Carlson. This is
based on our independently funded live interview poll of 500 likely voters in the district that was
weighted to match the expected turnout demographics for the upcoming November election.
The poll was in the field from September 22-27, 2018 and was conducted via live interview calls
to a landline/cell phone mix in English and Spanish to randomly selected likely voters in the
district (based on the State of Florida’s registered voter list). Voters who did not plan to vote
were excluded from the sample, and responses were matched to the voter file for accuracy. The
margin of error on the poll is +/- 4.5%.
Spano underperforming but still favored to keep FL-15 under GOP Control

Voter Preference FL-15 Congressional

Weighted Sample of 500 likely voters
MOE +/- 4.5%

49%
46%

5%

Ross Spano (GOP) Kristen Carlson (Dem) Undecided

Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews with likely voters
in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27,
2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then
weighted based on a projected 2018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with
a 95% confidence level
In an increasingly competitive open seat contest, Ross Spano has a slim 49% to 46% lead over
Kristen Carlson thanks to strong support from the Republican base in the district (96%), reliable
older voters 50+ (57%), and men (63%). Carlson is significantly overperforming the historical
Dem expectation with women (57%) and winning independent voters (48% to 34% over Spano),
while also taking 92% of Democrats.
The 5% of undecided voters are primarily younger voters, independents, and voters of color,
meaning that the Democrat Carlson likely still has some room to grow, while Spano will have to
rely on motivating the GOP base to turn out to fend off a potential wave result.
90% of those surveyed were “very likely to vote” or “almost certain” suggesting voter turnout
should be stable and on the higher side, compared to a typical midterm. In a more Republican
turnout environment, Spano’s lead would expand slightly 51% to 45%. However, based on
current trends 49% to 46% is the weighted result, considering this R+6 PVI Congressional
District was won by both Donald Trump and Mitt Romney.
Spano is also slightly better known than Carlson, with 16% of voters expressing a “do not know”
response regarding approval. 20% of voters expressed the same for Carlson. Spano’s approvals
were 47% approve to 37% disapprove, while Carlson was 42% approve to 38% disapprove.
Poor Approval Ratings for Donald Trump Weigh On GOP Chances in FL-15
Similar to the national average, just 40% likely of voters in FL-15 approve of the job Donald
Trump is doing as President, compared to 49% disapproval. Another Trump-related question
tested, regarding approval for the President’s proposed border wall with Mexico to deter illegal
immigration, polled at 40% support to 45% oppose. Independents, Democrats, and women have
negative opinions of Trump below the overall number, while Republicans and men approve of
Trump at higher levels.

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Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews with likely voters
in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27,
2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then
weighted based on a projected 2018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with
a 95% confidence level
Economic, Retirement, and Healthcare Issues on Voters Minds in FL-15

Top Issue FL-15

20%
17%
15% 14%
12% 11% 11%

When asked for the most important issue in deciding their vote for Congress, 20% of voters
picked “jobs and the economy,” followed by 17% selecting “Retirement and Senior Issues
Including Medicare and Social Security.” The third most popular issue was healthcare, with 15%
selecting that choice.
Other issues that polled more than a 10% support level were gun rights/gun safety (12%),
education (11%), and immigration policy (11%).
Republican Policies Remain Somewhat Popular in FL-15
On the positive side for Republicans, including Ross Spano, some GOP policies tested had
favorable approvals in the district. The GOP tax cut and tax code overhaul package passed last
year polled at 44% support to 38% oppose. Abolishing ICE had just 27% support compared to
52% opposed and 48% of voters in FL-15 wanted to repeal the Affordable Care Act compared to
38% opposed.
Additionally, 48% of voters surveyed want the GOP to remain in control of Congress, while 43%
favored Democrats taking control.
Medicare for All polled at 41% support compared to 40% opposition. While gun safety
legislation including universal background checks and a ban on AR-15’s had a 45% support level
compared to 36% opposed, showing Democrats have an advantage in messaging around guns.

Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews with likely voters
in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27,
2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then
weighted based on a projected 2018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with
a 95% confidence level
Tight Races Abound in Other FL-15 Ballot Contests
Other key races on the FL-15 ballot were tested with the same likely voter sample, and with
undecideds not pushed. In the race for Governor in FL-15, Republican Ron DeSantis had a slim
42% to 41% lead on Democrat Andrew Gillum. Republican Rick Scott led Democratic Senator
Bill Nelson 44% to 42% in the race for Senate.
In down ballot constitutional office races, Democrat Nicole “Nikki” Fried had a 47% to 43%
lead on Republican Matt Caldwell, mirroring her strong polling results statewide, while
Republicans had an edge in the race for Attorney General with 46% backing Ashley Moody
compared to 40% for Democrat Sean Shaw.
Demographic Breakdown
(unweighted)
Age
18-30 10.6%
31-50 27%
51-64 30.4%
65+ 32%
Race
White 73%
Black 14%
Hispanic 11.2%
Asian 0.8%
Other 0.6%
Gender
Female 56%
Male 44%
Party ID
Republican 43%
Democrat 38.6%
Independent 18.4%
FL-15 Crosstabs
Unweighted topline
Ross Spano (R) 51%

Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews with likely voters
in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27,
2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then
weighted based on a projected 2018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with
a 95% confidence level
Kristen Carlson (D) 45%
Undecided 4%
Age
18-30 Spano 15.09% Carlson 52.83% undecided 32.08%
31-50 Spano 45.19% Carlson 51.85% undecided 2.96%
51-64 Spano 58.55% Carlson 39.47% undecided 1.98%
65+ Spano 55.63% Carlson 43.13% undecided 1.25%
Race
White Spano 58.04% Carlson 40.33% Undecided 1.63%
Black Spano 4.29% Carlson 78.57% Undecided 17.14%
Hispanic Spano 50% Carlson 37.5% Undecided 12.5%
Asian Spano 75% Carlson 0% Undecided 25%
Other Spano 0% Carlson 100% Undecided 0%
Gender
Male Spano 62.73% Carlson 30.91% Undecided 6.36%
Female Spano 38.93% Carlson 56.79% Undecided 4.29%
Party ID
Republican Spano 95.81% Carlson 2.33% Undecided 1.86%
Democrat Spano 5.18% Carlson 92.23% Undecided 2.59%
Independent Spano 33.7% Carlson 47.83% Undecided 18.48%

About Bold Blue Campaigns:

Florida based Bold Blue Campaigns LLC was launched during the 2016 election cycle to provide
high quality, affordable services to Democratic and Non-Partisan campaigns across the country.
Our grassroots supported services include professional live and IVR polling, data analysis
including voter, and district analysis, media and communications support and production, digital
advertising campaigns, fundraising services, staff and candidate trainings, field operations
support, opposition research, textbanking and phone banking campaigns, and more.
Our live interview polling and calls are professionally conducted by a contracted US based call
center operating out of North Carolina.

Bold Blue Campaigns Conducted 500 live cell phone and landline telephone interviews with likely voters
in the upcoming 2018 November General Election. Poll was conducted September 22-September 27,
2018. Respondents were selected at random, with responses validated via voter file data, and then
weighted based on a projected 2018 turnout model. Expected margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5% with
a 95% confidence level