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Q1. Regarding the ADMM+8 summit coming up in Hanoi: what are your
expectations? Do you foresee any new developments, particularly with China and
Vietnam?
ANSWER: Vietnam has worked very hard to make the inaugural meeting of ASEAN
Defence Ministers and their dialogue partners (ADMM+8) a success. Success means
that all eight invited defence ministers turn up, and that now seems assured. Success
also means adopting a joint statement setting out in broad brush terms areas of
agreed cooperation and a possible future agenda.
The ADMM Plus meeting is presently scheduled to convene once every three years;
but that timeframe can be brought forward. I would expect to see some kind of
working group or groups set up to adopt a plan of action and vision statement.
It is clear that the United States and its allies have got their way in placing maritime
security on the agenda. But this will not directly deal with the South China Sea unless
a particular minister makes an intervention on the matter. Maritime security will be
dealt with generally.
The ADMM Plus meeting will not address bilateral matters such as outstanding
issues between China and Vietnam. They will be dealt with separately when the
Chinese defence minister makes an official visit separate from the ADMM Plus
meeting.
Q2. How will the U.S. play its hand?
ANSWER: US officials have already indicated that they are not going to play a central
role in resolving South China Sea issues. The US can be expected to push the line it
has been consistently advocating: resumption of military to military talks with China
and territorial disputes over maritime areas should be settled peacefully. The fact
that the US and Chinese defence ministers will hold separate talks on the sidelines of
the ADMM Plus meeting is a positive indication that military‐to‐military talks may
follow.
The US needs to play multilaterally and not dominate the discussions. There is an
overlap in regional security cooperation activities and deft leadership by the US
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could result in streamlining what is presently a chaotic process. Several multilateral
institutions are addressing humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. This could be
one area where these endeavours are brought together under one roof.
The US will adopt a long‐term view. Nothing about the ADMM Plus process will
impair present patterns of US security cooperation in the region. When the East Asia
Summit reaches full strength next year with the addition of the US and Russia its
membership will be congruent with the ADMM Plus process. A long‐term view
suggests that the East Asia Summit could direct the ADMM Plus process because the
membership is the same.