2018 Election Roundup

2018 U.S.
State Elections Roundup

Introduction
Welcome to McGuireWoods Consulting’s 2018 U.S. State Elections Roundup interactive website -- your one-stop resource for this
year’s gubernatorial, attorneys general, and state legislature races.
Complete with concise information about how state elections are shaping up around the country -- including snapshots of primary
results and hot-button ballot initiatives -- our site provides a landscape view of our nation’s political scene and insights on potential
shifts in the tide.
Our goal is to provide business leaders and constituents quick, reliable access to comprehensive information about this year’s
elections. Based on a compilation of public polling and forecasting data collected and analyzed by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook
Political Report, and Governing, information provided on our site will be updated as appropriate.
I hope you find our site helpful, and please let us know if you have any questions about our country’s most anticipated state elections.
Gov. James Hodges

President
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Why are the 2018 elections important?
During midterm elections, state races often take a backseat to the races in the U.S. Congress. But for 2018, the electoral battles
in the states are critical because there is much at stake: Whichever party ends up controlling the governorships and state
legislatures in key states after the election will have substantial influence over the congressional redistricting process after the
next census.
How district maps are drawn will have an impact on state and congressional races in the next 10 years. New maps could increase
the number of seats in Congress for one party or the other, effectively giving one party an advantage in securing majorities in state
legislatures and the U.S. House of Representatives.
Control of governorships and state legislatures will also have an impact on policymaking, as a growing number of states are
taking the initiative to legislate on issues that the federal government have yet to address. For example, since the start of the
Trump Administration, we have witnessed elected leaders in blue states playing a significant and prominent role to fight federal
policies that they view as adverse to the interests of their constituents. Democratic state attorneys general have mounted a
firewall against President Trump’s policies on issues like immigration and energy development, launching a number of lawsuits to
oppose controversial administration policies.
Such resistance isn’t new: During the Obama Administration, Republican state attorneys general challenged executive actions and
policies in much the same way.
Amidst all the predictions and possibility for upsets, one thing remains certain – this year’s state elections are among the most
widely anticipated in many years because of their potential to create shifts in in the political landscape of our country that extend
far beyond state lines.
Table of Contents
Click on any state in the following maps to jump to that state’s analysis
• Overview of Gubernatorial Races
• Overview of Attorneys General Races
• Overview of State Legislatures - House
• Overview of State Legislatures - Senate
• State-by-State Analysis
The information in this presentation is based on the latest publicly available data and is subject to change. Last updated October 5, 2018.
Gubernatorial Race Projections
Governor: 36 seats at stake
No election Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Lean Democratic
Tossup Safe Republican Likely Republican Lean Republican
MA
RI
CT
Source: Governing and

other public polling data
Attorneys General Race Projections
Attorneys General: 30 seats at stake
MA
RI
CT

State Legislatures: House Chambers
House: 45 chambers at stake
MA
RI
CT

State Legislatures: Senate Chambers
Senate: 42 chambers at stake
MA
RI
CT

Alabama
State Legislature Attorney General Gubernatorial
Senate
Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 27-7 R Joseph Siegelman Walt Maddox
House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

Projected Safe R Steve Marshall Kay Ivey
Current 70-33 R
• Alabama’s Republican primary Primary Results

The nomination of Roy Moore in
runoff election took place on July
a losing bid for the U.S. Senate
17th. Incumbent Steve Marshall Walt Maddox (Mayor of Tuscaloosa):
will unlikely pave the way for a
(R) is seeking reelection and is the 54.6%; 154,559 votes
Democratic wave.
Republican nominee after winning Gov. Kay Ivey (Incumbent): 56.1%;
July’s closely contested runoff. The 330,743 votes
Democratic candidate is attorney
Joseph Siegelman. • Alabama’s primary elections were
held on June 5th. Incumbent
• This race is projected as a safe Governor Kay Ivey (R) is seeking
Republican victory. reelection and is the heavy favorite.
Her Democratic challenger is
Mayor of Tuscaloosa Walt Maddox.
The governorship is expected to
remain in Republican possession.
Alaska
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 14-6 R Jahna Lindemuth Mark Begich
House Appointed by Governor. Republican Nominee

Projected Lean D
Current 22-18 D
Mike Dunleavy
Primary Results
• With Alaska’s Senate safely in
Republican hands, the Democrats
Mark Begich (Former U.S. Sen.,
look to maintain control of the
representing AK): Uncontested
House.
Mike Dunleavy (Former AK State
Sen.): 61%; 38,840 votes
• The State House is currently
governed by a narrow, Democratic-
• Gov. Bill Walker, an Independent
led coalition.
elected in 2014, is seeking re-
election as an Independent.
• If oil prices stay relatively high, as
• Alaska’s primary elections were
they are now, voters may be less
held on August 21st. Republicans
likely to shift the House.
are favored to win the seat.
Arizona
Senate
Projected Lean R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 17-13 R January Contreras David Garcia

Projected Likely R
Current 35-25 R Mark Brnovich Doug Ducey
• Arizona’s primary elections were Primary Results

• Democrats are three seats away
from flipping the Arizona Senate – held on August 28th.
• Incumbent Mark Brnovich (R) David Garcia (Associate Professor at ASU):
to do so would require unseating 50.45%; 250,955 votes
some battle-tested Republican is seeking a second term. His
Democratic challenger is former Doug Ducey 70.72%; 457,926 votes
lawmakers.
Assistant Attorney General January
Contreras. • Arizona’s primary elections were held
• Democrats may be successful on August 28th.
on issues such as education and • This election will come down to
whether an energized Democratic • Democrats may favor from Gov. Ducey’s
teacher pay, resonant with AZ low favorability ratings, and on reports
voters. and Latino vote can deliver the
office to Contreras, or whether of President Trump’s lack of popularity
Brnovich has demonstrated enough amongst Arizonan voters.
independence to win a degree • This race is projected as lean
of crossover voters. This race is Republican.
projected to lean Republican.
Arkansas
Senate
Current 23-9 R Mike Lee Jared Henderson

Projected Safe R Leslie Rutledge Asa Hutchinson
Current 75-24 R
• Incumbent Leslie Rutledge (R) is Primary Results

Democrats might be able to take few
extra seats; the GOP’s majorities are seeking reelection.
• Rutledge’s Democratic challenger is Jared Henderson (Former Teach for America
big enough to remain secure.
law school professor, Mike Lee. State Director): 63.4%; 68,340 votes
• Democrats are expected to focus Gov. Asa Hutchinson (Incumbent): 69.7%;
more on competitive congressional 145,251 votes
races. • Arkansas’s primary elections were held on
• This race is projected as a safe May 22nd.
Republican victory. • Incumbent Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R)
is seeking reelection and is the heavy
favorite.
• The governorship is projected as safe
Republican.
• The governorship is expected to remain
in Republican possession.
California
Senate
Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 26-13 D Xavier Becerra Gavin Newsom
Assembly Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

Projected Safe D John Cox
Steve Bailey
Current 52-25 D
• California’s primary elections were Primary Results

Democrats possess lopsided control
of both chambers in California, and held on June 5th.
• Incumbent Xavier Becerra (D) will Gavin Newsom (Lt. Gov. of CA): 33.8%;
may be able to expand their margins
face off against GOP challenger 1,613,120
slightly due to President Trump’s
retired judge Steven Bailey. John Cox (Businessman): 26.2%;
unpopularity in the state.
• Under California’s primary system, 1,249,248 votes
the top two vote-getters, regardless
of party affiliation, advance to the • California’s primary election was
general election. held on June 5th.
• Becerra received 45% of the vote, • Due to term limits, incumbent
and Bailey finished second with Governor Jerry Brown (D) is
25%. ineligible to run for reelection.
• This race is projected as a safe • The governorship is projected to
Democratic victory. remain in Democratic possession.
Colorado
Senate
Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 18-6 R Phil Weiser Jared Polis

Projected Lean D George Brauchler Walker Stapleton
Current 36-29 D
• Attorney General Cynthia Coffman Primary Results

• The Democrats have high hopes
of flipping the GOP-controlled (R) is not seeking reelection.
• On June 26, Colorado held Jared Polis (U.S. Rep. for CO): 44.4%;
Colorado Senate.
primary elections to determine 279,006 votes
the Democratic candidate, and Walker Stapleton (CO State
• If the open-seat gubernatorial
University of Colorado Law Treasurer): 47.7%; 235,478 votes
race turns in the Democrats’ favor,
Democrats could succeed. Professor Phil Weiser beat Joseph
Salazar, a state representative. • Incumbent Gov. John Hickenlooper
• Colorado is a neutral political (D) is ineligible for reelection due to
environment, so a potential blue term limitations.
wave could be counteracted by a • Rep. Jared Polis (D) is expected to
strong Republican candidate. benefit from Gov. Hickenlooper’s
• This race is projected to be a toss- favorability.
up. • This race is a toss-up.
Connecticut
Senate
Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 18-18 William Tong Ned Lamont

Projected Lean D Bob Stefanowski
Current 79-71 D
Susan Hatfield
• Connecticut’s primary elections were Primary Results

• There may be outside influences
that determine the outcome of held on August 14th.
• Incumbent George Jepsen (D) is not Ned Lamont (Businessman): 81.2%;
these races.
seeking reelection. 172,088 votes
• If anti-Trump sentiment wins out,
• Republicans will make an effort to tie Bob Stefanowski (Businessman):
then Democrats can probably seize
Democratic candidate William Tong, 29.4%; 42,119 votes
full control of the currently tied
Senate. a current member of the CT House of
Representatives, to the low approval • Two-term incumbent Governor
• If voters are more preoccupied with
numbers of Gov. Dan Malloy (D). Dan Malloy (D) is not seeking re-
the low popularity ratings of Gov.
• Democrats will try to tie Republican election.
Malloy, the GOP is still in the game
Candidate Susan Hatfield, a state • This race is projected to be a toss-
with the Senate.
prosecutor, to President Trump. up.
• This race is a toss-up.
Delaware
Senate
Projected Lean D Democratic Nominee Current Governor
Current 1-10 D Kathy Jennings John Carney (D)
House Republican Nominee The next election is 2020.

Projected Safe D Bernard Pepukayi
Current 25-16 D
• Governing projects that it is hard to • Incumbent Matt Denn (D) is not seeking
imagine the blue state of Delaware reelection.
losing Democratic seats in 2018. • Kathy Jennings is a former New Castle
County Chief Administrative Officer;
• However, out of an abundance of Bernard Pepukayi is a former New
caution, narrowly divided state Castle County attorney.
Senate is rated as competitive. • As a result of the highly contested
primary this year, Democratic
candidates have increasingly taken
strong positions in order to appeal to
the party’s base.
• Delaware has not elected a Republican
attorney general since 2005.
• This race is projected as a likely
Democratic victory.
Florida
Senate
Current 23-15 R Sean Shaw Andrew Gillum

Projected Likely R
Ashley B. Moody Ron DeSantis
Current 75-40 R
• Incumbent Pam Bondi (R) is term Primary Results

• For the first time in 25 years,
Democrats have a chance of limited and ineligible for reelection.
• Sean Shaw is a member of the FL Andrew Gillum (Mayor of Tallahassee): 34.3%;
seizing control of a state legislative
House of Representatives; Ashley 517,417 votes
chamber, specifically the Senate.
Moody is a former judge in FL. Ron DeSantis (Former U.S. Rep. for FL): 56.5%;
• The state House is far less
• Neither of the candidates have 913,679 votes
competitive for the Democrats.
• That said, the higher-profile Florida statewide name recognition.
• This race is projected to be a toss- • This race is projected a toss-up, with
races on the ballot -- for governor
up. national attention focused on the
and U.S. senator -- could drain
progressive Gillum’s primary victory.
money and attention away from
• Gillum has won the nomination in a state
legislative races.
historically less inclined to lean too far left
of centrist.
• DeSantis has been endorsed by President
Trump.
Georgia
Senate
Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 37-19 R Charlie Bailey Stacey Abrams

Projected Likely R Brian Kemp
Chris Carr
Current 116-64 R
• Incumbent Chris Carr (R) is seeking Primary Results

• A general election runoff is
scheduled for December 4, 2018. reelection.
• His Democratic challenger is Stacey Abrams (Minority Leader, GA
• It’s reasonable to expect some
former prosecutor Charlie Bailey. House of Reps.): 76.5%; 423,191 votes
Democratic gains, especially in the
• Bailey has secured the support of Brian Kemp (GA Secretary of State):
Atlanta suburbs where there’s been
dozens of prominent Democratic *69%; 406,638 votes (*result of primary
some Democratic growth.
figures; conventional wisdom runoff)
• Still, the margins in Georgia are
too wide for Democrats to be is that he faces an uphill battle
against a widely supported GOP • Incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is
optimistic about flipping either
incumbent. restricted by term limitations and
chamber in 2018.
• This race is currently projected as a therefore ineligible to seek reelection.
likely Republican victory. • This race leans Republican.
Hawaii
Senate
Projected Safe D Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 25-0 D Russell Suzuki (D) David Ige
House Republican Nominee

Projected Safe D Appointed by Governor.
Andria Tupola
Current 45-5 D
Primary Results
• During the Trump presidency,
Republican numbers have sunk
Gov. David Ige (Incumbent): 51.3%;
to extreme lows in the Hawaii
124, 528 votes
Legislature.
Andria Tupola (Minority Leader, HI
• The state House has already
House of Reps.): 53%; 17,282 votes
seen one of its few Republican
lawmakers switch to the
• Incumbent Governor David Ige (D)
Democratic Party, specifically
is seeking reelection in 2018 and
naming Trump as the reason for
has an approval/disapproval rating
the move.
of 37-49 percent, according to
• These are two of the safest
Morning Consult.
Democratic chambers in the nation.
• The governorship is projected as
safely Democrat.
Idaho
Senate
Current 29-6 R Bruce Bistline Paulette Jordan

Projected Safe R Brad Little
Lawrence Wasden
Current 59-11 R
• Incumbent Lawrence Wasden (R) Primary Results

There’s a possibility of minor
Democratic gains given the few is seeking election to a fifth term in
office. Paulette Jordan (Former ID House
GOP retirements and departures, yet
• Bruce Bistline, an attorney, is his Rep.): 58.5%; 38,458 votes
nothing big enough to change the
Democratic challenger. Brad Little (Lt. Gov. of ID): 37.3%;
makeup of either chamber, according
• Wasden won 68% of the vote in the 72,391 votes
to Governing projections.
last election.
• This race is projected as a safe • Incumbent Gov. C.L. “Butch” Otter
Republican victory. (R) is eligible for, but will not seek,
reelection.
• The Democratic candidate is
former State Rep. Paulette Jordan.
• The governorship is expected to
Illinois
Senate
Current 37-22 D Kwame Raoul J.B. Pritzker

Projected Safe D Erika Harold Bruce Rauner
Current 67-51 D
• Incumbent Lisa Madigan (D) is not Primary Results

• Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is
facing a tough reelection battle due seeking reelection.
• Erika Harold (former Miss America J.B. Pritzker (Businessman): 45.2%; 573,679 votes
to discontent with President Trump
2003) is the Republican candidate, Gov. Bruce Rauner (Incumbent): 51.4%; 361,301
– it is unlikely for Republicans to
and state Senator Kwame Raoul is votes
make significant gains in either
the Democratic candidate. • Incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner (R) is seeking
chamber.
• Harold has an advantage in her reelection.
star power, but Raoul has a strong • On track to be one of the most expensive
• A bonus for Democrats is that
reputation as a lawmaker. governor’s races in U.S. history.
gubernatorial nominee J.B.
• In a race between two largely • Gov. Rauner’s approval ratings have remained
Pritzker is heavily funding his own
unknown candidates in a consistently low.
campaign, leaving pro-Democratic
Democratic state, this election is • The race leans Democratic and due in large
outside groups able to devote their
projected to lean Democratic. part to a conservative third party candidate, this
money and time to shoring up
race has consistently allowed the Democrat to
control of the legislature.
maintain a double digit lead.
Indiana
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor:
Current 41-9 R Curtis Hill (R) Eric Holcomb (R)
House
Projected Likely R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020.
Current 70-30 R
• The GOP edge in the Indiana

Senate is big enough to withstand a
Democratic wave.
• However, it is possible that
Democrats could gain some
modest ground in the House,
especially due to Republican
retirements and a series of
intraparty challenges supported
by the aggressively anti-abortion
group Hoosiers for Life.
• Still, both chambers will remain in
Republican hands.
Iowa
Senate
Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee
Current 28-20 R Uncontested/Incumbent Fred Hubbell
AG: Tom Miller (D)
Projected Safe R
Kim Reynolds
Current 59-41 R
• Incumbent Attorney General Tom Primary Results

• The GOP remains favored in the
House -- the more vulnerable Miller (D) was the only candidate
for attorney general. Fred Hubbell (Businessman): 51.4%;
of Iowa’s two chambers -- but 361,301 votes
Democratic enthusiasm and Gov. Kim Reynolds (Incumbent):
several retirements could make it • Miller is seeking his 10th term in
office and has served as the state’s Uncontested
interesting.
attorney general since 1979.
• The Democratic challenger is wealthy
• The competitive gubernatorial race insurance executive Fred Hubbell.
hasn’t really heated up yet, so the • Hubbell’s enormous primary victory,
battle for the legislature remains carrying 96 of 99 counties amid high
hard to call. Democratic turnout, prompted Cook
Political Report election forecasters
to alter the race’s designation from
“Likely Republican” to “Toss Up.”
Kansas
Senate Democratic Nominee
No races Democratic Nominee
Sarah Swain Laura Kelly
Current 31-9 R
Republican Nominee
House Kris Kobach
Republican Nominee
Projected Safe R Independent Nominee
Derek Schimdt
Current 85-40 R Greg Orman
• Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is Primary Results

• The Kansas House, the only
chamber to be contested this fall, seeking a third term in office.
• Schmidt, a moderate, is popular Laura Kelly (KS State Sen.): 51.5%; 79,301
will remain in Republican hands.
amongst Kansas voters and is votes
expected to easily win reelection. Kris Kobach (KS Secretary of State): 40.6%;
• However, if moderate Republicans
• The state Democratic Party 127,211 votes
manage to gain enough ground,
has even called for Democratic • The race is projected as a likely Republican
they can work with Democrats to
candidate Sarah Swain, an attorney, victory.
shape key legislation.
to drop out of the race as of June. • Kobach unseated Gov. Jeff Colyer in the
• This race is projected as a safe GOP primary by just 343 votes.
Republican victory. • Former GOP U.S. Sen. Nancy Kassebaum
endorsed his Democratic opponent, Laura
Kelly.
• This race remains tight, but Kobach has a
slight advantage.
Kentucky
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor:
Current 27-11 R Andy Beshear (D) Matt Bevin (R)
House The next election is 2019.

Projected Safe R The next election is 2019.
Current 63-37 R
• Kentucky is not promising

territory for Democrats to gain
back legislative ground, even in a
favorable year like 2018.
• Expect continued Republican

control in both chambers.
Louisiana
Senate
Current 25-14 R Current Attorney General Current Governor:
Jeff Landry (R) John Bel Edwards (D)
House
Current 61-41 R
The next election is 2019. The next election is 2019.
Neither chamber in Louisiana is

contested this year. The next election
is 2019.
Maine
Senate
Projected Tossup Democratic Nominee
Current 18-17 R Janet Mills
Current Attorney General:
House Janet T. Mills (D)
Projected Lean D Republican Nominee
Current 74-70 D Shawn Moody
• The Attorney General of Maine is Primary Results

• Given the uncertainty surrounding
appointed by the state legislature.
the gubernatorial race in Maine,
Janet Mills (AG of ME): 54.1%; 63, 384
Governing rates Maine’s Senate
votes
a tossup and the House lean
Shawn Moody (Entrepreneur): 52.6%;
Democratic.
53,436 votes
• However, if Democrats look strong
• This race is projected as a toss-up.
in the race for governor -- an office
the GOP has controlled for eight
years -- that could change ratings.
Maryland
Senate
Current 32-14 D Brian Frosh Ben Jealous

Projected Safe D Craig Wolf Larry Hogan
Current 91-50 D
• Incumbent Brian Frosh (D) will Primary Results

• Both chambers in Maryland are
solidly Democratic. face Republican candidate Craig
Wolf, an attorney, in the November Ben Jealous (Former NAACP President): 39.6%;
• The only issue is whether
election. 231,895 votes
Republican Gov. Larry Hogan – with
• Governor Hogan is not expected to Gov. Larry Hogan: (Incumbent): 100%; 210,935
a high popularity rating in the state
spend much of his political capital votes/uncontested
– will help oust enough incumbents
to sustain vetoes. taking aim at Frosh.
• This race is projected as a safe • The Baltimore Sun reported that as many as
• Currently, both chambers are veto-
Democratic victory. a quarter of Maryland Democrats intended to
proof; the Democrats have more
cast their votes for the incumbent, regardless
than the 85 representatives and 29
of who emerged from the Democratic
senators needed to override Gov.
primary.
Hogan’s vetoes.
• This race is projected as a likely Republican
victory.
Massachusetts
Senate
Current 31-7 D Maura Healey Jay Gonzalez

Projected Safe D Charles D. Baker
James McMahon
Current 121-34 D
• Incumbent Maura Healey (D) is Primary Results

This is a confident projection:
Massachusetts’ lopsidedly seeking reelection.
• She will be challenged in November Jay Gonzalez (Former State Budget
Democratic chambers will be solid in
by James McMahon, an attorney. Chief): 63.17%; 348, 434 votes
2018.
• Healey is popular among Gov. Charles D. Baker (Incumbent):
Massachusetts voters and enjoyed 63.78%; 174,126 votes
an approval rating of 65% at the • Incumbent Gov. Charlie Baker
end of 2017, according to a New (R) is seeking reelection and has
England University poll. received the endorsement of
• Massachusetts has not elected a the Massachusetts Republican
Republican attorney general since Convention.
1966. • Given Gov. Baker’s high approval
• This race is projected as a safe ratings, this election is projected
Democratic victory. as a safe race for the Republican
incumbent.
Michigan
Senate
Projected Likely R Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 27-10 R Dana Nessel Gretchen Whitmer

Projected Lean R Tom Leonard
Current 63-46 R
Bill Schuette
• Speaker of the House Tom Leonard Primary Results

• In the Senate, 27 of 38 seats will
be open due to term limits, most of has the Republican nomination.
• Attorney Dana Nessel received the Gretchen Whitmer (Former State Sen.
them Republican.
Democratic Party’s nomination. Minority Leader): 52%; 586,074 votes
• Still, it’s unclear at this point
• This race is projected to be a toss- Bill Schuette (AG of MI): 50.7%; 499,837
whether Democrats can win
up. votes
enough of them to flip the chamber
this fall.
• Due to term limitations, incumbent
• In the House, a smaller percentage
Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is ineligible for
of seats are open, but there are
reelection.
about an equal number of seats
• MI is often known to change the
that are marginally Democratic and
hands of power in each gubernatorial
marginally Republican, boosting
election.
the Democrats’ odds of seizing the
• This race leans Democrat.
lower chamber.
Minnesota
Senate
No Races Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 34-33 R Keith Ellison Tim Walz

Projected Likely R
Current 77-57 R
Doug Wardlow Jeff Johnson
• High profile candidate Keith Ellison, Primary Results

• Minnesota has lots of big races
on the ballot this fall -- two U.S. former congressman, brought
new attention to the race - recent Tim Walz (U.S. Rep.): 41.6%; 242,549 votes
Senate seats, several competitive
allegations of domestic abuse Jeff Johnson (Former MI House of Reps.):
U.S. House seats and all statewide
by Ellison’s ex-girlfriend did not 52.6%; 168,495 votes
offices, including the governorship.
• At the same time, the GOP will affect his primary win; the general
election should be watched for a • Incumbent Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is not
have to defend a large amount of
public reaction. seeking a third term.
competitive House seats, primarily
• Doug Wardlow is a former MN • The race has shifted from “leaning
in the Twin Cities suburbs.
state representative. or likely Democratic” to a “toss-up”
• If a Democratic wave develops,
• This race is a likely Democratic classification as a result of a strong
we may push the House to lean
victory. Republican challenger.
Republican.
• This race leans Democrat.
Mississippi
Senate
No Races Current Attorney General
Current 33-19 R Jim Hood (D) Current Governor
Phil Bryant (R)
House
No Races The next election is 2019.
Current 73-48 R
• The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial

Neither chamber in Mississippi is election will take place on November
contested this year. The next election 5, 2019 to choose the next Gov. of MS.
is 2019. • Primary elections will occur on August
6, 2019.
• Incumbent Republican Gov. Phil Bryant
is ineligible to run for a third term due
to term limits.
Missouri
Senate Current Attorney General
Projected Likely R Josh Hawley (R) Current Governor
Current 24-9 R Mike Parson (R)
2018 Republican nominee for
MO U.S. Senate seat.
Projected Likely R
Current 115-47 R The next election is 2020.
• Missouri’s Republican governor,

Eric Greitens, is facing charges
stemming from alleged sexual
impropriety and may be
impeached.
• The GOP’s margins are too big, it

seems, to lose control in one cycle
as a result.
Montana
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 32-18 R Steve Bullock (D)
Tim Fox (R)
House
Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020.
Current 59-41 R
While President Trump’s popularity

in the state has waned somewhat in
recent months, it’s not likely to affect
legislative races in Montana.
Nebraska
Democratic Nominee
Bob Krist
Senate Incumbent/Uncontested
Unicameral/Nonpartisan
Doug Peterson (R) Republican Nominee
Pete Ricketts
• Incumbent Doug Peterson (R) is Primary Results

Nebraska’s unicameral legislature is
officially nonpartisan. running unopposed for a second
term in office. Bob Krist (NE House Rep.): 60%;
• The Democratic primary winner, 53,787 votes
Evangelos Argyakis, recently Gov. Ricketts (Incumbent): 81.4%;
withdrew after he was arrested for 137,144 votes
attacking his father.
• This race is projected as a safe • Incumbent Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is
Republican victory. running for reelection.
• His Democratic challenger is State
Sen. Bob Krist.
• No Democrat has won the
governorship since 1994.
• The governorship is expected to
Nevada
Senate
Projected Likely D Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 11-9 D Aaron Ford Steve Sisolak

Republican Nominee
Projected Likely D
Wes Duncan Adam Laxalt
Current 27-15 D
• Incumbent Adam Laxalt (R) is not Primary Results

• In the Senate, despite the tight
margin, Democratic incumbents seeking reelection and is instead
running for governor. Steve Sisolak (Chair, Clark County, NV
look solid.
• State Senate Majority Leader Aaron Commission): 50%; 72,726 votes
Ford is the Democratic candidate. Adam Laxalt (AG of NV): 71.5%; 101,617
• The Assembly, meanwhile, does
• Former Nevada State votes
not appear to have enough
Assemblyman and Deputy Attorney • Due to term limitations, incumbent
vulnerable Democratic seats to flip,
General Wes Duncan is the Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is ineligible for
either.
Republican candidate. reelection.
• Given the significant number of • The general election is expected to come
undecided voters, this race is down to voter turnout and which candidate
projected to be a toss-up. can better appeal to the growing number
of registered nonpartisan voters.
• This race is widely considered to be a
toss-up.
New Hampshire
Senate
Projected Tossup Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 14-10 R Gordon MacDonald (R) Molly Kelly
Projected Tossup Appointed by Governor.
Current 218-175 R Chris Sununu
Primary Results
• In recent election cycles, New
Hampshire has been one of the
Molly Kelly (Former State Sen.): 65.5%;
nation’s most closely divided and
80,598 votes
most ‘swinging’ of swing states.
Gov. Chris Sununu (Incumbent): 98.3%;
• A flip to Democratic control is quite
91,025 votes
possible, but it is still early.
• What is certain is that both
• Historically, New Hampshire voters
chambers will be competitive this
have been known to oust a new
fall – Governing projects this as a
governor immediately after their first
toss-up.
two-year term.
• This race is now projected as likely
Republican.
New Jersey
Senate
No Races Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 25-15 D Phil Murphy (D)
Gurbir Grewal (D)
Assembly
No races Appointed by Governor. The next election is 2021.
Current 52-26 D
Neither chamber in New Jersey is

contested this year. The next election
is 2019.
New Mexico
Senate
Current 26-16 D Hector Balderas Michelle Lujan Grisham
House
Republican Nominee Republican Nominee
Projected Safe D
Current 38-32 D Michael Hendricks Steve Pearce
• Incumbent Hector Balderas (D) is Primary Results

• New Mexico is a state where the
Democrats can expect a boost this seeking reelection to his second
term in office. Michelle Lujan Grisham (U.S. House
fall.
• Attorney Michael Hendricks is the of Rep.): 66.4%; 116,287 votes
Republican candidate. Rep. Steve Pearce (U.S. House of
• With Democrats already in control
• Both Balderas and Hendricks were Rep.): Uncontested
of both chambers, modest gains
are possible. unopposed in their respective
primaries. • Due to term limitations, Incumbent
• Balderas is the heavy favorite, and Governor Susana Martinez (R) is
the race is projected as a safe ineligible to seek reelection.
Democratic victory. • This race is projected to lean
Democratic.
New York
Senate Democratic Nominee
Projected Tossup
Letitia James Democratic Nominee
Current 32-31 R (cross-party coalition) Andrew Cuomo
Republican Nominee
Assembly Keith Wofford
Republican Nominee
Projected Safe D Green Party Nominee
Current 102-37 D Marc Molinaro
Michael Sussman
• Barbara Underwood (D) is currently Primary Results

• Special elections on April 24 gave
state Senate Democrats -- long the serving as the acting Attorney
General but will not run for the Gov. Andrew Cuomo (Incumbent):
chamber’s minority -- a numerical
office in 2018. 65.6%; 978, 168 votes
edge.
• Republican candidate Keith Marc Molinaro (Dutchess County
• Democrat Simcha Felder has said
Wofford, an attorney, will face off Executive): Uncontested
he would continue to caucus with
the GOP. against the Democrat and Public
Advocate Letitia James. • The governorship is projected to
• If Democrats run strong in
• This race is projected as a likely remain in Democratic possession.
November, his decision may be
irrelevant. Democratic victory.
• Still, there’s enough up in the air to
be projected a toss-up.
North Carolina
Senate
Projected Likely R Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 35-15 R Josh Stein (D) Roy Cooper (D)
House
Projected Likely R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020.
Current 75-45 R
• The Democrats are poised to pick

up seats in both chambers in North
Carolina, especially in the House.
• The more urgent question is
whether the Democrats can pick
up enough seats to break the GOP
supermajority in either chamber,
handing Democratic Gov. Roy
Cooper a weightier veto threat.
• In the House, the Democrats would
need to net four seats to break the
supermajority and would need six
in the Senate.
North Dakota
Senate
Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee
David Thompson Current Governor
Current 38-9 R
Doug Burgum (R)
Assembly Republican Nominee
Projected Safe R Wayne Stenehjem The next election is 2020.
Current 81-13 R
North Dakota’s strong Republican • Republican nominee Wayne

margins are not in danger of eroding Stenehjem is the inumbent.
this year. • Democratic nominee David
Thompson is an attorney.
• This race is projected to be safely
republican.
Ohio
Senate
Current 24-9 R Steve Dettelbach Richard Cordray

Projected Likely R
Current 66-33 R Dave Yost Mike DeWine
• Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) will Primary Results

• Only half the seats in the Ohio
Senate are up in any cycle, which not be seeking reelection, as he is
running for governor of Ohio. Richard Cordray (Former Consumer
makes it less susceptible to wave
• The Democratic candidate is Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)
conditions.
former U.S. Attorney Steve Director): 62.3%; 423,264 votes
• The House is a bit more vulnerable
Dettelbach. Mike DeWine (AG of OH): 59.8%; 494,766
(and is being buffeted by scandal
• The Republican candidate is State votes
and leadership issues).
• The GOP edge in the House is wide Auditor Dave Yost.
• Both candidates are strong • Due to term limitations, incumbent
and should be able to survive even
contenders in this election, and Gov. John Kasich (R) is ineligible for
a sizable Democratic wave.
the race will likely be influenced by reelection.
top-of-the-ballot contests, such as • This race is widely considered to be a
the open gubernatorial seat and toss-up.
competitive U.S. Senate race. This
race is projected to be a toss-up.
Oklahoma
Senate
Current 40-8 R Mark Myles Drew Edmondson

Projected Likely R
Current 72-28 R Mike Hunter Kevin Stitt
• Incumbent Mike Hunter (R) will Primary Results

• The Oklahoma Senate is certain to
stay in Republican hands, with only face Democratic candidate Mark
Myles, an attorney, in November. Drew Edmondson (Former AG of OK):
24 of 48 seats up this cycle and a
• This race is projected as a safe 61.4%; 242,504 votes
big GOP edge.
Republican victory. Kevin Stitt (Businessman): 29.3%;
• Dissatisfaction with GOP Gov. Mary
132,713 votes
Fallin has been brewing, and a
battle over education funding has
• Incumbent Gov. Mary Fallin (R)
energized Democrats.
faces term limitations and is
• If any Democratic gains are to
ineligible to seek reelection.
materialize, it’s likelier to happen
• This race is leaning Republican.
the House.
• For now, Republican victory
does not seem to be seriously
threatened.
Oregon
Senate
Projected Safe D Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 17-13 D Kate Brown
Ellen Rosenblum (D)
Projected Safe D The next election is 2020.
Current 35-25 D
Knute Buehler
• The Democratic margins in the Primary Results

Oregon Legislature are modest, but
it’s a blue enough state in a blue Gov. Kate Brown (Incumbent): 82.7%;
enough year to be considered safe 264,526 votes
for now. Knute Buehler (OR State Rep.): 46.5%;
• Democrats may be able to secure 125,124 votes
the one seat in each chamber that
is needed to gain a three-fifths • This race leans Democrat.
supermajority.
• Going in the Democrats’ favor is
that the most competitive seats
are in districts where Republican
incumbents are leaving and where
Democrats have been gaining
ground.
Pennsylvania
Senate
Projected Likely R
Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 34-16 R
Josh Shapiro (D) Tom Wolf
Projected Likely R The next election is 2020.
Current 119-81 R Scott Wagner
Primary Results
• The Democrats should be able to
gain seats in both chambers.
Gov. Tom Wolf (Incumbent):
• Party strategists believe Democrats
Uncontested
have a path to taking over the state
Scott Wagner (PA State Sen.): 44.3%;
House this year, but it is premature
323,635 votes
to say that it is a likely outcome.
• Unlike the congressional
• Although President Trump won
district map, which was recently
Pennsylvania in 2016, a June
overturned by the state supreme
F&M poll found that 51% of voters
court as an invalid partisan
disapprove of the president.
gerrymander, the lines in both
state legislative chambers remain
Democratic victory
favorable to the GOP.
Rhode Island
Senate
Projected Safe D Democratic Nominee
Current 33-4 D Democratic Nominee Gina Raimondo
(Uncontested)
House Peter Neronha Republican Nominee
Projected Safe D
Current 64-11 D
Allan Fung
• Incumbent Peter Kilmartin (D) is Primary Results

• Despite a competitive gubernatorial
race, the large Democratic term limited and ineligible to seek
reelection. Gov. Gina Raimondo (Incumbent):
majorities in the state legislature
• Former U.S. Attorney Peter 57.1%; 66,978 votes
look solid for 2018.
Neronha, a Democrat, is the only Allan Fung (Mayor of Cranston, RI):
major party candidate on the ballot. 56.4%; 18,577 votes
• That said, there could be an
ideological shift to the left within • This race is projected as a safe
Democratic victory. • Raimondo and Fung previously
the Democratic caucus.
faced off against one another
during the 2014 gubernatorial
election.
• This race is a toss up.
South Carolina
Senate
No Races Democratic Nominee Democratic Nominee
Current 28-18 R Constance Anastopoulo James Smith Jr.
Projected Safe R
Current 79-44 R Alan Wilson Henry McMaster
• Incumbent Alan Wilson (R)will be Primary Results

• In the House, the GOP will be in
good shape to retain its sizable challenged by Democrat Constance
Anastopoulo, an attorney, in the James Smith (SC State Rep.): 61.8%; 147,987
majority, with only modest, if any,
general election. votes
erosion.
• Although he was scrutinized for his Gov. Henry McMaster (Incumbent): 42.3%;
• The next Senate races are in 2020.
connection to a high profile political 155,072 votes
corruption case during the primary • Incumbent Governor Henry McMaster (R)
contest, Wilson cruised to an easy is seeking re-election with the support of
victory in the runoff. President Trump.
• Democratic candidate Anastopoulo • In a state where the President’s endorsement
will encounter a difficult road ahead carries significant weight, Gov. McMaster still
to unseat the two term incumbent. has ties to an on-going political corruption
• This race is projected as a likely investigation that is likely to draw criticism.
Republican victory. • This race is projected as a likely Republican
victory.
South Dakota
Senate
Current 29-6 R Randy Seiler Billie Sutton

Projected Safe R
Current 60-10 R Jason Ravnsborg Kristi Noem
• In SD, political parties nominate Primary Results

The Republicans are in no danger of
losing significant ground in this solidly state executive candidates at their
conventions, with the exception of Billie Sutton (Minority Leader, SD State
red state.
the Gov.’s Office. Sen.): Uncontested
• The Democratic Party Convention Kristi Noem (U.S. House of Reps.):
nominated former U.S. Attorney 56%; 57,437 votes
Randy Seiler as the party’s
candidate. • Due to term limitations, incumbent
• The Republican Party Convention Governor Dennis Daugaard (R) is
nominated Jason Ravnsborg, ineligible to run for reelection.
attorney and lieutenant colonel in • Charlie Cook has recently changed
the U.S. Army Reserve. Incumbent the projection of this race from
Marty J. Jackley (R) is term limited. safe Republican to toss-up.
• This race is projected as a safe
Republican victory.
Tennessee
Senate
Projected Safe R Democratic Nominee
Current 28-5 R Current Attorney General Karl Dean
Herbert Slatery III (R)
Projected Safe R
Current 74-25 R
Bill Lee
Tennessee is the only state where the Primary Results

• There may be a few more seats
than usual in play in Tennessee, attorney general is appointed by the
state Supreme Court. Karl Dean (Former Mayor of Nashville, TN):
and former Democratic Gov. Phil
75.1%; 279,324 votes
Bredesen is making a credible run
Bill Lee (Farmer/Businessman): 36.7%;
for an open U.S. Senate seat.
289,699 votes
• However, significant Democratic
• Incumbent Governor Bill Haslam (R) is
gains look unlikely for now.
ineligible for re-election.
Republican victory.
Texas
Senate
Current 20-11 R Justin Nelson Lupe Valdez

Projected Likely R
Current 93-56 R
Ken Paxton Greg Abbott
• Incumbent Ken Paxton (R) is Primary Results

• Even though Democrats are excited
about Beto O’Rourke’s chances at seeking reelection, the Democratic
nominee Justin Nelson is an Lupe Valdez (Former Dallas Country Sheriff):
unseating Republican U.S. Sen. Ted
attorney in TX. 52.7%; 227,889 votes
Cruz, Governing does not project
• Despite facing a trial for securities Gov. Greg Abbot (Incumbent): 90.4%;
major Democratic gains in the
fraud, the incumbent is currently 1,392,310 votes
legislature.
• Democratic gains are likelier in projected to cruise to victory, riding
the coattails of Governor Abbott’s • Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) was first
the House, where Democrats are
reelection in a solidly conservative elected to office in 2014 and is seeking
contesting an unusually large
state. reelection this year.
number of seats.
• This is a safe Republican seat. • In a state which has not elected a
• That said, a double-digit increase
Democratic governor since 1990, Gov.
seems like a stretch.
Abbott is the heavy favorite in November.
• The governorship is expected to remain in
Republican possession.
Utah
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 24-5 R Sean Reyes (R) Gary Herbert (R)
House
Projected Safe R
The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020.
Current 62-13 R
Democrats might be able to make

some marginal gains, but Utah
Republicans are in no danger of
significant losses.
Vermont
Senate
Current 21-7 D T.J. Donovan Christine Hallquist

Projected Safe D
Current 83-53 D
H. Brooke Paige Phillip Scott
• Incumbent T.J. Donovan (D) is Primary Results

• Democrats will hold on to both
chambers in Vermont. seeking a second term and will
face Republican candidate H. Christine Hallquist (Businesswoman): 48.3%;
Brooke Paige. 27,619 votes
• The most pressing question is
• Paige is a perennial candidate Phillip Scott (Incumbent): 67.5%; 24,220
whether Republicans lose more
who has filed to run in 5 statewide votes
than two seats in the House, a
result that would leave them with races.
• This race is projected as a safe • Hallquist is the first openly transgender
too few votes to sustain a veto by
Democratic victory. major party nominee for gov. in the U.S.
GOP Gov. Phil Scott.
• Gov. Scott has distanced himself from
President Trump, whose approval rating in
Vermont was last reported at 38%.
• The governorship is expected to remain in
Republican possession.
Virginia
Senate
No Races Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 21-19 R Mark Herring (D) Ralph Northam (D)
House The next election is 2021. The next election is 2021.

No Races
Current 51-49 R
• Virginia does not have elections

this year.
• The next House races are in 2019.
• The next Senate races are in 2020.
Washington State
Senate
Projected Lean D Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 26-23 D Bob Ferguson (D) Jay Inslee (D)
Projected Lean D
The next election is 2020.
Current 50-48 D
• Both chambers in Washington state

should remain blue this fall.
• Still, given narrow margins,
projections keep both chambers
leaning Democratic.
West Virginia
Senate
Projected Likely R Current Attorney General Current Governor
Current 22-12 R Patrick Morrisey (R) Jim Justice (R)
House
Projected Safe R The next election is 2020. The next election is 2020.
Current 64-36 R
• West Virginia remains in favor of

President Trump, and the GOP’s
margins in both chambers are
sizable.
• Democratic gains, if any, will be

minor.
Wisconsin
Senate
Current 18-14 R Josh Kaul Tony Evers
Assembly Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

Projected Likely R
Current 63-35 R
Brad Schimel Scott Walker
• Wisconsin’s primary elections had Primary Results

• Democrats are optimistic about
their chances in the state Senate, only one AG candidate running per
party. Tony Evers (Superintendent of Public
where they only need to net three
• Incumbent Brad Schimel (R) is Instruction of WI): 41.8%; 224,502 votes
seats to take control.
seeking a second term in office. Gov. Scott Walker (Incumbent): 91.6%;
• The Democratic candidate is 417,619 votes
• By contrast, the GOP’s margin in the
Assembly should be large enough former Assistant U.S. Attorney
Josh Kaul. • Despite the disapproval numbers for
to hold, despite the possibility of
• Given Wisconsin’s politically Gov. Walker, recent polling suggests
some modest losses.
polarized electorate as well as that the race can now be classified as
recent Democratic special election a toss-up.
successes, this race is considered
to be a toss-up.
Wyoming
Senate
Projected Safe R Current Attorney General Democratic Nominee
Current 27-3 R Mary Throne
Peter Michael (R)
Assembly Republican Nominee
Projected Safe R Appointed by the Governor.
Current 51-9 R
Mark Gordon
Primary Results
The Republican majorities in
Wyoming have nothing to worry about
Mary Throne (WY House of Reps.): 72.9%;
in 2018, according to Governing.
12,944 votes
Mark Gordon (WY State Treasurer): 33.4%;
38,915 votes
• Due to term limitations, incumbent

Gov. Matt Mead (R) is ineligible to seek
reelection.
• The governorship is expected to safely

2018 Election Roundup

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2018 Election Roundup

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2018 U.S.

State Elections Roundup

Gov. James Hodges

Source: Governing and

Source: Governing and

Source: Governing and

Source: Governing and

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Alabama’s Republican primary Primary Results

House Appointed by Governor. Republican Nominee

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Arizona’s primary elections were Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Leslie Rutledge (R) is Primary Results

Assembly Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• California’s primary elections were Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Attorney General Cynthia Coffman Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Connecticut’s primary elections were Primary Results

House Republican Nominee The next election is 2020.

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Pam Bondi (R) is term Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Chris Carr (R) is seeking Primary Results

House Republican Nominee

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Lawrence Wasden (R) Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Lisa Madigan (D) is not Primary Results

• The GOP edge in the Indiana

• Incumbent Attorney General Tom Primary Results

• Incumbent Derek Schmidt (R) is Primary Results

House The next election is 2019.

• Kentucky is not promising

• Expect continued Republican

Neither chamber in Louisiana is

• The Attorney General of Maine is Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Brian Frosh (D) will Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Maura Healey (D) is Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Speaker of the House Tom Leonard Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• High profile candidate Keith Ellison, Primary Results

• The 2019 Mississippi gubernatorial

• Missouri’s Republican governor,

• The GOP’s margins are too big, it

While President Trump’s popularity

• Incumbent Doug Peterson (R) is Primary Results

House Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Adam Laxalt (R) is not Primary Results

Neither chamber in New Jersey is

• Incumbent Hector Balderas (D) is Primary Results

• Barbara Underwood (D) is currently Primary Results

• The Democrats are poised to pick

North Dakota’s strong Republican • Republican nominee Wayne

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Mike DeWine (R) will Primary Results

House Republican Nominee Republican Nominee

• Incumbent Mike Hunter (R) will Primary Results

• The Democratic margins in the Primary Results

• Incumbent Peter Kilmartin (D) is Primary Results