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Technical Analysis
of Equity Market
Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The
time to get interested is when no one else is. You can‟t buy what
is popular and do well. – Warren Buffett
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
A REPORT
ON
OF EQUITY MARKET
BY
(0901202144)
SUBMITTED TO:-
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Authorization
The making of this project report is authorized by Mr Bhavik Shah ( Advisory Head) Angel
Broking Ltd, Ahmedabad (India).
I also express my honest confirmation in support of the fact that the said “Report” has neither
been used before to fulfill any other purpose nor it will be submitted to any other person or
authority in future.
The report is submitted only as partial fulfillment of the requirement of the MBA Program of
ICFAI University, Dehradun.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Acknowledgements
This research project has been a very enlightening and rewarding experience for me in an
area that is of great personal interest. I would like to acknowledge and express my gratitude
to three groups of people who provided generous amounts of support and cooperation during
this scholarly endeavour.
First, I have benefited greatly from the never-ending patience, guidance, and encouragement
from my company guide Mr. Bhavik Shah. He gave me the support and knowledge required
to complete this project in a successful manner. Thank you Bhavik sir for your never-ending
encouragement and support for my scholarly pursuits. I would also like to thank Mr. Sachin
Rajveer for his constant support and help.
Second, I would like to thank Prof.Mayank Patel my faculty in-charge for providing me all
required support from his side in terms of knowledge and encouragement, for being there
whenever I have a question of doubt and to solve the same.
Lastly, a Special vote of thanks to Prof. Saji Kumar, Prof. Prashant Saxena and My Parents
for solving all the problems I faced in terms of sources required and for giving a constant
encouragement and aspire me to go ahead and fulfil my goals.
"Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 25... Once
you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that
get other people into trouble in investing." - Warren Buffet
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Table of Contents
Authorization ........................................................................................................................ 3
Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... 4
Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 7
Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 8
Purpose of the Study: ..................................................................................................................... 8
Limitations of the Study: ............................................................................................................... 8
Method of Collecting Data:............................................................................................................ 8
What Is Fundamental Analysis? ..................................................................................................... 9
The Indian Economy: .................................................................................................................. 10
The Industries in the Economy:.................................................................................................... 13
Financial Ratios: .......................................................................................................................... 23
What Is Technical Analysis? ........................................................................................................ 25
ABB. LTD................................................................................................................................... 34
ACC LTD.................................................................................................................................... 35
AMBUJA CEMENT ................................................................................................................... 36
AXIS BANK LTD. ...................................................................................................................... 37
BHARAT HEAVY ELECTRICALS LTD.. ................................................................................. 38
BHARAT PETROLEUM CORPORATION LTD. ....................................................................... 39
BHARTI AIRTEL LTD............................................................................................................... 40
CAIRN LTD. .............................................................................................................................. 41
CIPLA LTD. ............................................................................................................................... 42
DLF LTD. ................................................................................................................................... 43
GAIL (INDIA) LTD. ................................................................................................................... 44
GRASIM INDUSTRIES LTD ..................................................................................................... 45
HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD. ..................................................................................................... 46
HDFC BANK LTD ..................................................................................................................... 47
HERO HONDA MOTORS LTD. ................................................................................................ 48
HINDALCO INDUSTRIES LTD. ............................................................................................... 49
HINDUSTAN UNILEVER LTD. ................................................................................................ 50
HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LTD. .............................................. 51
ITC LTD. .................................................................................................................................... 52
ICICI BANK LTD....................................................................................................................... 53
IDEA CELLULAR LTD. ............................................................................................................ 54
INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD ............................................................................................. 55
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CO. LTD. ................................................... 56
JAIPRAKASH ASSOCIATES LTD. ........................................................................................... 57
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
JINDAL STEEL & POWER LTD. .............................................................................................. 58
LARSEN & TURBO LTD. .......................................................................................................... 59
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA LTD. ........................................................................................... 60
MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA LTD.................................................................................................. 61
NTPC LTD.................................................................................................................................. 62
OIL & NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LTD. ........................................................................ 63
POWERGRID CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD. ...................................................................... 64
PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK ..................................................................................................... 65
RANBAXY LABORATORIES LTD. ......................................................................................... 66
RELIANCE CAPITAL LTD. ...................................................................................................... 67
RELIANCE COMMUNICATION LTD ...................................................................................... 68
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD. ................................................................................................ 69
RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD. ..................................................................................... 70
RELIANCE POWER LTD. ......................................................................................................... 71
SIEMENS LTD. .......................................................................................................................... 72
STATE BANK OF INDIA .......................................................................................................... 73
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA LTD ....................................................................................... 74
STERLITE INDUSTRIES (INDIA) LTD. ............................................................................... 75
SUN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LTD. ....................................................................... 76
SUZLON ENERGY LTD. ........................................................................................................... 77
TATA CONSULTANCY SERVICES LTD. ................................................................................ 78
TATA MOTORS LTD. ............................................................................................................... 79
TATA POWER CO. LTD............................................................................................................ 80
TATA STEEL LTD. .................................................................................................................... 81
UNITECH LTD........................................................................................................................... 82
WIPRO LTD. .............................................................................................................................. 83
Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 84
Glossary .............................................................................................................................. 85
References .......................................................................................................................... 86
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Abstract
Stock Market the word itself is enough to speak about itself. It works on two emotions carried
by individuals in the market greed and fear. Both emotions either lead to profits or losses.
Majority of the participants deal into the market in a speculative manner, buying and selling
based on, following the herd or market hear say. But remain an aware about the key reason
why a particular stock moved up or fell down. If a stock moves suddenly these individuals
say “Operator must have done that” but forget to find out the real reason. The reasons behind
the screen for a company‟s share prices going up or falling down, which are hidden in its
financial performances and past movement history. These facts can be known by the
Fundamental and Technical analysis.
Therefore, this report is intended to guide these new entrants and the current market movers
about Technical and Fundamental Analysis. To show how the same can lead to profit earning
investments and not speculative losses. In this report the basics of Fundamental Analysis
have been discussed and all the financial key ratios have been given for the Nifty50 for the 10
years time span from fiscal year 2000 to 2009. A brief idea about Industry and the over all
economy is also given. On the bases of these Fundamental tools we can get to know the
financial position of a company to back this Technical analysis is also been shown.
Initially a few patterns of technical analysis have been explained with an example and later
how the use of the same can be done to predicts the future price moves and further a few
patterns existing in charts for the current time period have been given.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Introduction
Purpose of the Study:
Is the Stock Market a safe option to invest my savings? For how much time horizon should I
invest? What amount of returns should I expect? What are the ideal stocks for investment?
This report consists of answers to all these questions which rise in an investors mind before
entering into the stock market or when an existing investor buys a stock.
For this purpose, Fundamental Analysis of Nifty50 is done for which the economic analysis
of the Indian economy is done based on the Inflation Rate, GDPFC, Growth Rate and year on
year returns of Nifty. Then a brief Industry analysis is done based on the Industrial Ratios and
reason behind them. Finally, Company Analysis is done by analysing the Quality of
Management, Product Range of the Company; Financial Strength based certain ratios like
Price to Earnings Ratio, Dividend Yield, Price to Book Value, Earnings per Share, Market
Capitalization and Market Returns.
Following it, Japanese Candle Stick charts showing the chart patters of the market price for
each of the 50 scrips are given based on the technical analysis tools and techniques. As
Fundamental Analysis is only about identifying undervalued stocks or the booming sectors or
companies, but it does not say anything about the timings of the unlocking of that
undervaluation but its combination with Technical Analysis will give a better picture to the
Investor. As the combination of both enables an investor in taking decisions based on
Techno-Funda Analysis and find out the right entry and exit points.
This project will even help in knowing the economy as Nifty is the barometer for the Indian
Economy, through which the growth patterns and cyclical patterns of the various sectors can
also be known, through which scrips of midcap and small can also tracked for the same
sector.
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The India GDP statistics is a summarization of all the
differential factors that forms the basic foundation of the Indian economy. The India GDP
statistics is a cumulative report of the performance of all the major parameters of the Indian
economy. The statistics of the India GDP clearly reveals that the rise of the India GDP after
the 1990s was due to the open economy phenomenon. The paradigm shift of Indian economy
from that of a closed-market to open market was during the balance-of-payments crisis in the
late „80s. The Government of India remained flexible – it opened up the Indian markets such
that private investments could easily find an entry.
GDP calculated at purchaser‟s price is the total value calculated by all the domestic
producers, adding any product taxes and deducting the subsidies, if any (these elements are
excluded from the value of the products).
Due to the change in the economic policy of India, more foreign direct investments (FDIs)
and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) came into the country. This, in a way, strengthened
the foundation the Indian economy the confidence index of overseas investors was at a high.
With the stupendous growth of Indian Information Technology sector, Indian service industry
and the Indian BPO sector, the Indian GDP shot up to 6% during the period from 1988 to
2003. It was after 2004, that the growth of the gross domestic product of India showed
considerable improvements, mainly geared by the growth in the Indian service and
manufacturing industry. The Indian GDP figure stood at an extraordinary 8.5% during the
period thereafter. But thereafter, what hit us was the global meltdown and it‟s after impacts.
India got swayed off; the immediate repercussion fell on the growth pattern of the India
economy. The GDP growth rate started getting a setback and from then on it had only
experienced a downward pattern. A dramatic improvement might not be expected, but a slow
and steady growth path is surely desirable.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Inflation: Inflation means a persistent rise in the price levels of commodities and services, leading to
a fall in the currency‟s purchasing power. Inflation Rate is the measure of inflation over a period of
time. Inflation rate is calculated for any time period weekly, monthly or annual.
The rising figures show us an increase in the rate of goods and services and a fall in the purchasing
power of the consumer with the same level of incomes. Therefore an individual must invest keeping
in mind the future rise in prices. Increasing inflation is really bad for retirement planning because the
target keeps on getting higher and higher to pay for the same quality of life. In other words, your
savings will buy less. As a result, you will need to save more today to pay for higher priced
goods and services in the future. Since everything you buy today costs more, so you have less
left-over income available to save.
Inflation has another effect too, once people start to expect inflation, they will spend now
rather than later. That's because they know things will only cost more lately. This consumer
spending heats up the economy even more, leading to further inflation. This situation is
known as spiraling inflation because it spirals out of control.
Inflation is important if you are holding bonds or Treasury notes. These fixed price assets
only give a fixed return each year. As inflation spirals faster than the return on these assets,
they become less valuable.Price Inflation greatly effects time value of money (TVM). It is a
major component of interest rates which are at the heart of all TVM calculations. Actual or
anticipated changes in the inflation rate cause corresponding changes in interest rates.
Lenders know that inflation will erode the value of their money over the term of the loan so
they increase the interest rate to compensate for that loss.
Nifty: India is a land of many cultures and languages. Its vibrancy and quest for growth
throws up as many questions as it throws up new answers. With globalization people are
constantly seeking broader horizon of knowledge and information. How much has the
country prospered? How well is the economy doing? Nifty is the platform on which India
finds these answers.
The Nifty Index is a composite of the top 50 stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange
(NSE). It is a simplified tool that helps investors and ordinary people alike, to understand
what is happening in the stock market and by extension, the economy. If the Nifty Index
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performs well, it is a signal that companies in India are performing well and consequently
that the country is doing well. An upbeat economy is usually reflected in a strong
performance of the Nifty Index. A rising index is also indicative that the investors are
positive about the future.
The Nifty Index is based upon solid economic research. It is internationally respected and
recognized as a pioneering effort in providing simpler understanding of stock market
complexities. Nifty is the flagship index of NSE, the 3rd largest stock exchange in the world
in terms of number of transactions (Stock Futures). Nifty has been used to represent S&P
CNX Nifty, owned and managed by India Index Services and Products Ltd. (IISL), a joint
venture between NSE and CRISIL.
Nifty index can be used by individuals to track market movements and compare
performance of individual companies‟ vis-à-vis market performance.
Shareholders evaluation of management decisions - performance of a company vis-à-
vis the market generally reflects the perception of the investor.
Assist traders and market intermediaries to evaluate performance and sentiments
across the market.
Index funds can replicate Nifty indices to earn market returns.
Derivative trading - Investors can use Nifty indices for hedging their exposures in the
equity markets.
Benchmarking NAV performances - Nifty is the benchmark for performance of open ended
and close ended funds.
Given above, are the annual returns of S&P CNX Nifty. In the fiscal year „03-„04 and „05-‟06
Nifty has given annual returns of 81.29% and 67.13%.
In the year ‟08-‟09 the time of Global Meltdown Nifty showed strength as compared to the
global markets(NASDAQ) and showed instant recovery and rose up to 73.59% in the fiscal
year ‟09-‟10.
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VMware Inc, San Francisco-based IT firm is looking forward to invest US$ 100
million by 2010 in India.
EMC Corporation's total Indian assets is expected to reach US$ 2 billion by 2014
Future of Indian IT Industry: The Indian IT sector persists to be one of the flourishing sectors
of Indian financial system indicating a speedy expansion in the coming years. As per
NASSCOM, the Indian IT exports are anticipated to attain US$ 175 billion by 2020 out of
which the domestic sector will account for US$ 50 billion in earnings. In total the export and
domestic IT sector are expected to attain profits amounting to US$ 225 billion along with
new prospects from BRIC nations and Japan for its outsourcing operations.
Software Industry: It's the technological revolution that at times brings surprising
opportunities for some nations. India, though not among the front runners in terms of
economic growth, has successfully utilized such opportunities in the revolution to become an
IT hotspot. For the past several years, India has been an increasingly favored destination for
customized software development. As a result, a number of software companies in India have
come up. Not only the number of players has increased in the Indian IT market, but at the
same time, Indian software companies have done considerably well in the global market.
Such huge success of software companies in India has given birth to a new speculation –
whether other developing countries should imitate Indian example and whether the success of
India would constitute a competitive challenge to the software industry of the developed
world or not.
The Software Industry in India: With the huge success of the software companies in India, the
Indian software industry in turn has become successful in making a mark in the global arena.
This industry has been instrumental in driving the economy of the nation on to a rapid growth
curve. As per the study of NASSCOM-Deloitte, the contribution of IT/ITES industry to the
GDP of the country has soared up to a share of 5% in 2007 from a mere 1.2% in 1998.
Besides, this industry has also recorded revenue of US$ 64 billion with a growth rate of 33%
in the fiscal year ended in 2008.
The export of software has also grown up, which has been instrumental in the huge success of
the Indian software companies as well as the industry. In fact, software export from India
accounts for more than 65% of the total software revenue. The domestic software market
largely depends upon sale of software packages and products, which constitute major part of
revenues. Products account for almost 40% of the domestic market. On the other hand, more
than 80% of revenue from software exports comes from software services like custom
software development and consultancy services etc.
Reasons behind Success of Indian software companies: There are a number of reasons why
the software companies in India have been so successful. Besides the Indian software
companies, a number of multinational giants have also plunged into the India IT market.
India is the hub of cheap and skilled software professionals, which are available in
abundance. It helps the software companies to develop cost-effective business solutions for
their clients. As a result, Indian software companies can place their products and services in
the global market in the most competitive rate. This is the reason why India has been a
favorite destination for outsourcing as well. Many multinational IT giants also have their
offshore development centers in India.
IT Business Sectors: Most of the software companies in India are into varied types of
business. There can be several types of business in the IT sectors:
Infrastructure Software: These include OS, middleware and databases.
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started getting the organized shape in the early 1900s. In 1914, India Cement Company Ltd
was established in Porbandar with a capacity of 10,000 tons and production of 1000 installed.
The World War I gave the first initial thrust to the cement industry in India and the industry
started growing at a fast rate in terms of production, manufacturing units, and installed
capacity. This stage was referred to as the Nascent Stage of Indian Cement Industry. In 1927,
Concrete Association of India was set up to create public awareness on the utility of cement
as well as to propagate cement consumption.
The cement industry in India saw the price and distribution control system in the year 1956,
established to ensure fair price model for consumers as well as manufacturers. Later in 1977,
government authorized new manufacturing units (as well as existing units going for capacity
enhancement) to put a higher price tag for their products. A couple of year‟s later;
government introduced a three-tier pricing system with different pricing on cement produced
in high, medium and low cost plants.
Cement industry, in any country, plays a major role in the growth of the nation. Cement
industry in India was under full control and supervision of the government. However, it got
relief at a large extent after the economic reform. But government interference, especially in
the pricing, is still evident in India. In spite of being the second largest cement producer in
the world, India falls in the list of lowest per capita consumption of cement with 125 kg. The
reason behind this is the poor rural people who mostly live in mud huts and cannot afford to
have the commodity. Despite the fact, the demand and supply of cement in India has grown
up. In a fast developing economy like India, there is always large possibility of expansion of
cement industry.
Cement Production and Growth: Domestic demand plays a major role in the fast growth of
cement industry in India. In fact the domestic demand of cement has surpassed the economic
growth rate of India. The cement consumption is expected to rise more than 22% by 2009-10
from 2007-08. In cement consumption, the state of Maharashtra leads the table with 12.18%
consumption, followed by Uttar Pradesh. In terms of cement production, Andhra Pradesh
leads the list with 14.72% of production, while Rajasthan remains at second position. The
production of cement in India grew at a rate of 9.1% during 2006-07 against the total
production of 147.8 MT in the previous fiscal year. During April to October 2008-09, the
production of cement in India was 101.04 MT comparing to 95.05 MT during the same
period in the previous year. During October 2009, the total cement production in India was
12.37 MT compared to a production of 11.61 MT in the same month in the previous year.
The cement companies are also increasing their productions due to the high market demand.
The cement companies have seen a net profit growth rate of 85%. With this huge success, the
cement industry in India has contributed almost 8% to India's economic development.
Technology Up-gradation: Cement industry in India is currently going through a
technological change as a lot of up-gradation and assimilation is taking place. Currently,
almost 93% of the total capacity is based entirely on the modern dry process, which is
considered as more environment-friendly. Only the rest 7% uses old wet and semi-dry
process technology. There is also a huge scope of waste heat recovery in the cement plants,
which lead to reduction in the emission level and hence improves the environment.
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In a recent announcement, the second largest cement company in South India, Dalmia
Cement declared that it's going to invest more than US$ 652.6 million in the next 2-3
years to add 10 MT capacities.
Anil Ambani-led Reliance Infrastructure is going to build up cement plants with a
total capacity of yearly 20 MT in the next 5 years. For this, the company will invest
US$ 2.1 billion.
India Cements is going to set up 2 thermal power plants in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil
Nadu at a cost of US$ 104 billion.
Anil Ambani-led Reliance Cementation is also going to set up a 5 MT integrated
cement plant in Maharashtra. It will invest US$ 463.2 million for that.
Jaiprakash Associates Ltd has signed a MoU with Assam Mineral Development
Corporation Limited to set up a 2 MT cement plant. The estimated project cost is US$
221.36 million.
Rungta Mines (RML) is also planning to invest US$ 123 million for setting up a 1 MT
cement plant in Orissa.
Automobile Industry: Driving the most luxurious car has been made possible by the stiff
competition in the automobile industry in India, with overseas players gathering the same
momentum as the domestic participants.
Every other day, we have been hearing about some new launches, some low cost cars – all
customized in a manner such that the common man is not left behind. In 2009, the automobile
industry is expected to see a growth rate of around 9%, with the disclaimer that the auto
industry in India has been hit badly by the ongoing global financial crisis.
The automobile industry in India happens to be the ninth largest in the world. Following
Japan, South Korea and Thailand, in 2009, India emerged as the fourth largest exporter of
automobiles. Several Indian automobile manufacturers have spread their operations globally
as well, asking for more investments in the Indian automobile sector by the MNCs.
The figures show that the automobile sector in India has been growing robustly. The market
shares of the different types of vehicles will clearly depict the demand pattern in this sector.
Aluminum Industry: Aluminum Industry in India is a highly concentrated industry with the
top 5 companies constituting the majority of the country's production. With the growing
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demand of aluminum in India, the Indian aluminum industry is also growing at an enviable
pace. In fact, the production of aluminum in India is currently outpacing the demand.
Though India's per capita consumption of aluminum stands too low (under 1 kg) comparing
to the per capita consumptions of other countries like US & Europe (range from 25 to 30
kgs), Japan (15 kgs), Taiwan (10 kgs) and China (3 kgs), the demand is growing gradually. In
India, the industries that require aluminum most include power (44%), consumer durables,
transportation (10-12%), construction (17%) and packaging etc.
The Background: Though the existence of Aluminum was first established in the year 1808, it
took almost 46 years to make its production commercially viable. The research work of
several years resulted in extracting the aluminum from the ore. Aluminum is third most
available element in the earth constituting almost 7.3% by mass. Currently it is also the
second most used metal in the world after steel. Due to the consistent growth of Indian
economy at a rate of 8%, the demand for metals, used for various sectors, is also on the
higher side. As a result, the Indian aluminum industry is also growing consistently. In FY09,
the aluminum industry in India saw a growth of about 9%.
The production of aluminum started in India in 1938 when the Aluminum Corporation of
India's plant was commissioned. The plant which was set up with a financial and technical
collaboration with Alcan, Canada had a capacity of producing 2,500 ton per annum.
Hindustan Aluminum Corporation (Hindalco) was set up in UP in the year 1959; it had a
capacity of producing 20,000 ton per annum. In 1965, a public sector enterprise Malco which
had a capacity of 10,000 ton per annum was commissioned; by 1987, National Aluminum
Company (NALCO) was commissioned to produce aluminum. It had a capacity of producing
0.218 million ton.
During the 1970s, the government started regulating and controlling the Indian aluminum
industry. Restrictions in entry and price distribution controls were quite common in the
Indian aluminum sector. Aluminum Control Order was implemented where the aluminum
producers had to sell 50% of their products for electrical usages. However, in 1989, the order
was removed as the government decontrolling was revoked. With de-licensing of industry in
1991, the liberal import of technologies and capital goods was started. The liberalization
resulted in a growth rate of 12% of the industry, comparing to the growth rate of 6% during
the 1980.
Aluminum Production in India: India is world's fifth largest aluminum producer with an
aluminum production competence of around 2.7 million tones, accounting almost 5% of the
total aluminum production in the world. India is also a huge reservoir of Bauxite with a
Bauxite reserve of 3 billion tones.
The Production: India lies at the eighth position in the list of leading primary aluminum
producers in the world. India saw a significant growth in aluminum production in the past
five years. In 2006-07, the production target of aluminum in India laid by the Ministry of
Mines, Government of India was 1,153 KT, which was augmented to 1,237 KT in the next
year (2007-08). Due to the growing demand from the construction, electrical, automobiles
and packaging industry, the production of aluminum also hiked up. In FY 09, the total
aluminum production in India was around 1.35 tones.
The Consumption: After a stagnant consumption of primary aluminum in India from the end
of 1990s to 2002 (when the consumptions were between 500 – 600 KT), it started rising
sharply since 2002. The consumption reached at 1,080 KT in 2006. The consumption of
aluminum in India is dominated by the industries like power, infrastructure, and
transportation etc.
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The Major Players: The Indian aluminum industry is dominated by four or five companies
that constitute the majority of India's aluminum production. Following are the major players
in the Indian aluminum industry:
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Investment of USD 6 bn by Vodafone Essar for the next 3 fiscal years in order to
expand its list of cellular phone subscribers to 100 million against the existing 40
million.
By 2010, Reliance Communications (RCom) is expecting to increase the total number
of telecom towers by constructing 56,596 telecom towers and attaining the preset
target of 100,000.
Telenor, Norway based telecom giant has purchased 7% of shares in Unitech Wireless
and now possesses 67.25% by bringing in an investment of USD 431.70 million
Indian government owned telecom player, BSNL will invest USD1.17 billion in its
WiMax scheme
A proposal of foreign direct investment worth USD 660.1 million by Federal Agency
for State Property Management of the Russian Federation has been recently approved
by the Indian government. The Agency would be acquiring 20% stake in Sistema-
Shyam after bringing in the investment.
A USD 1 billion investment will be brought in by Tata Teleservices in its newly
introduced GSM facility Tata DoCoMo.
Future of Communication Industry in India: Indian Communication Industry has a
flourishing future in its value-added services market. The pre-set target of the 11th plan from
FY 2007 - 12 is to provide 600 million cellular phone connectivity aided by an investment of
USD 74 billion. Moreover, it is estimated that by the FY 2012 the profits generated by Indian
Communication Industry will touch USD 55 billion against the current USD 31 billion.
Pharma Industry: The pharmaceutical industry in India is among the most highly organized
sectors. This industry plays an important role in promoting and sustaining development in the
field of global medicine. Due to the presence of low cost manufacturing facilities, educated
and skilled manpower and cheap labor force among others, the industry is set to scale new
heights in the fields of production, development, manufacturing and research. In 2008, the
domestic pharma market in India was expected to be US$ 10.76 billion and this is likely to
increase at a compound annual growth rate of 9.9 per cent until 2010 and subsequently at 9.5
per cent till the year 2015.
Industry Trends:
The pharma industry generally grows at about 1.5-1.6 times the Gross Domestic
Product growth
Globally, India ranks third in terms of manufacturing pharma products by volume
The Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow at a rate of 9.9 % till 2010
and after that 9.5 % till 2015
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In 2007-08, India exported drugs worth US$7.2 billion in to the US and Europe
followed by Central and Eastern Europe, Africa and Latin America
The Indian vaccine market which was worth US$665 million in 2007-08 is growing at
a rate of more than 20%
The retail pharmaceutical market in India is expected to cross US$ 12-13 billion by
2012
The Indian drug and pharmaceuticals segment received foreign direct investment to
the tune of US$ 1.43 billion from April 2000 to December 2008
Challenges: Every industry has its own sets of advantages and disadvantages under which
they have to work; the pharmaceutical industry is no exception to this. Some of the
challenges the industry faces are:
Regulatory obstacles
Lack of proper infrastructure.
Lack of qualified professionals
Expensive research equipments
Lack of academic collaboration
Underdeveloped molecular discovery program
Divide between the industry and study curriculum
Government Initiatives: The government of India has undertaken several including policy
initiatives and tax breaks for the growth of the pharmaceutical business in India. Some of the
measures adopted are:
Pharmaceutical units are eligible for weighted tax reduction at 150% for the research
and development expenditure obtained.
Two new schemes namely, New Millennium Indian Technology Leadership Initiative
and the Drugs and Pharmaceuticals Research Program have been launched by the
Government.
The Government is contemplating the creation of SRV or special purpose vehicles
with an insurance cover to be used for funding new drug research
The Department of Pharmaceuticals is mulling the creation of drug research facilities
which can be used by private companies for research work on rent
Pharma Export: In the recent years, despite the slowdown witnessed in the global economy,
exports from the pharmaceutical industry in India have shown good buoyancy in growth.
Export has become an important driving force for growth in this industry with more than 50
% revenue coming from the overseas markets. For the financial year 2008-09 the export of
drugs is estimated to be $8.25 billion as per the Pharmaceutical Export Council of India,
which is an organization, set up by the Government of India. A survey undertaken by FICCI,
the oldest industry chamber in India has predicted 16% growth in the export of India's
pharmaceutical growth during 2009-2010.
Key Players in the Industry: There are several national and international pharmaceutical
companies that operate in India. Most of the country's requirements for pharmaceutical
products are met by these companies. Some of them are briefly described below:
Ranbaxy Laboratories Limited is the biggest pharmaceutical manufacturing
company in India. The company is ranked at the 8th position among the global
generic pharmaceutical companies and has presence in 48 countries including
world class manufacturing facilities in 10 countries and serves to customers from
over 125 countries. Ranbaxy Laboratories 2009-2010 Q3 Net Profit Results
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Financial Ratios:
Earnings per Share( EPS): The portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding
share of common stock. Earnings per share serves as an indicator of a company's
profitability. Calculated as :
When calculating, it is more accurate to use a weighted average number of shares outstanding
over the reporting term, because the number of shares outstanding can change over time.
An important aspect of EPS that's often ignored is the capital that is required to generate the
earnings (net income) in the calculation. Two companies could generate the same EPS
number, but one could do so with less equity (investment) - that company would be more
efficient at using its capital to generate income and, all other things being equal, would be a
"better" company. Investors also need to be aware of earnings manipulation that will affect
the quality of the earnings number. It is important not to rely on any one financial measure,
but to use it in conjunction with statement analysis and other measures.
Price to Book Value (P/B): A ratio used to compare a stock's market value to its book value.
It is calculated by dividing the current closing price of the stock by the latest quarter's book
value per share. Also known as the "price-equity ratio". Calculated as:
A lower P/B ratio could mean that the stock is undervalued. However, it could also mean that
something is fundamentally wrong with the company. As with most ratios, be aware that this
varies by industry. This ratio also gives some idea of whether you're paying too much for
what would be left if the company went bankrupt immediately.
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E): A valuation ratio of a company's current share price
compared to its per-share earnings. Calculated as:
For example, if a company is currently trading at Rs.43.00 a share and earnings over the last
12 months were Rs 1.95 per share, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22.05 (Rs43/Rs1.95).
In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the
future compared to companies with a lower P/E. However, the P/E ratio doesn't tell us the
whole story by itself. It's usually more useful to compare the P/E ratios of one company to
other companies in the same industry, to the market in general or against the company's own
historical P/E. It would not be useful for investors using the P/E ratio as a basis for their
investment to compare the P/E of a technology company (high P/E) to a utility company (low
P/E) as each industry has much different growth prospects.
The P/E is sometimes referred to as the "multiple", because it shows how much investors are
willing to pay per Re. of earnings. If a company were currently trading at a multiple (P/E) of
20, the interpretation is that an investor is willing to pay Rs.20 for Re.1 of current earnings.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
It is important that investors note an important problem that arises with the P/E measure, and
to avoid basing a decision on this measure alone. The denominator (earnings) is based on an
accounting measure of earnings that is susceptible to forms of manipulation, making
the quality of the P/E only as good as the quality of the underlying earnings number.
Dividend Yeild (D.Y): A financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in
dividends each year relative to its share price. In the absence of any capital gains, the
dividend yield is the return on investment for a stock. Dividend yield is calculated as follows:
Dividend yield is a way to measure how much cash flow you are getting for each dollar
invested in an equity position. Investors who require a minimum stream of cash flow from
their investment portfolio can secure this cash flow by investing in stocks paying relatively
high, stable dividend yields.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
situation occurs when the security is severely oversold. By timing entry into a security, the
gains on the investment can be greatly improved.
Alternatively, some technical traders might look at fundamentals to add strength to a
technical signal. For example, if a sell signal is given through technical patterns and
indicators, a technical trader might look to reaffirm his or her decision by looking at some
key fundamental data. Oftentimes, having both the fundamentals and technical‟s on your side
can provide the best-case scenario for a trade.
Not Just for Stocks: Technical analysis can be used on any security with historical trading
data. This includes stocks, futures and commodities, fixed-income securities, forex, etc. In
this tutorial, we'll usually analyze stocks in our examples, but keep in mind that these
concepts can be applied to any type of security. In fact, technical analysis is more frequently
associated with commodities and forex, where the participants are predominantly traders.
Now that the philosophy behind technical analysis is understood, with the help of certain
examples let‟s see how it really works.
Trend: One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is that of trend. The
meaning in finance isn't all that different from the general definition of the term - a trend is
really nothing more than the general direction in which a security or market is headed. There
are three types of trend:
Uptrends: Higher Highs and Higher Lows
Downtrends: Lower Highs and Lower Lows
Sideways/Horizontal Trends: Little movement up or down in the peaks and troughs
Along with these three trend directions, there are three trend classifications. A trend of any
direction can be classified as a long-term trend, intermediate trend or a short-term trend. In
terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized as one lasting longer than a
year. An intermediate trend is considered to last between one and three months and a near-
term trend is anything less than a month. A long-term trend is composed of several
intermediate trends, which often move against the direction of the major trend. If the major
trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a
continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend. The
short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate trends.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
It is important to be able to understand and identify trends so that you can trade with the trend
rather than against them. Two important sayings in technical analysis are "the trend is your
friend" and "don't buck the trend". Trendline is the tool used to draw trends and even identify
the support and resistance.
Support and Resistance:
Support: The price level through which a stock or market seldom falls.
Resistance: The price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses.
Once a resistance or support level is broken, its role is reversed. If the price falls below a
support level, that level will become resistance. If the price rises above a resistance level, it
will often become support. As the price moves past a level of support or resistance, it is
thought that supply and demand has shifted, causing the breached level to reverse its role. For
a true reversal to occur, however, it is important that the price make a strong move through
either the support or resistance.
Support and resistance analysis is an important part of trends because it can be used to make
trading decisions and identify when a trend is reversing. For example, if a trader identifies an
important level of resistance that has been tested several times but never broken, he or she
may decide to take profits as the security moves toward this point because it is unlikely that it
will move past this level.
Support and resistance levels both test and confirm trends and need to be monitored by
anyone who uses technical analysis. As long as the price of the share remains between these
levels of support and resistance, the trend is likely to continue. It is important to note,
however, that a break beyond a level of support or resistance does not always have to be a
reversal. For example, if a price moved above the resistance levels of an upward trending
channel, the trend has accelerated, not reversed. This means that the price appreciation is
expected to be faster than it was in the channel.
Being aware of these important support and resistance points should affect the way that you
trade a stock. Traders should avoid placing orders at these major points, as the area around
them is usually marked by a lot of volatility. If you feel confident about making a trade near a
support or resistance level, it is important that you follow this simple rule: do not place orders
directly at the support or resistance level. This is because in many cases, the price never
actually reaches the whole number, but flirts with it instead. So if you're bullish on a stock
that is moving toward an important support level, do not place the trade at the support level.
Instead, place it above the support level, but within a few points. On the other hand, if you are
placing stops or short selling, set up your trade price at or below the level of support.
Volumes: Volume is simply the number of shares or contracts that trade over a given period
of time, usually a day. The higher the volume, the more active the security. To determine the
movement of the volume (up or down), chartists look at the volume bars that can usually be
found at the bottom of any chart. Volume bars illustrate how many shares have traded per
period and show trends in the same way that prices do.
Volume is an important aspect of technical analysis because it is used to confirm trends and
chart patterns. Any price movement up or down with relatively high volume is seen as a
stronger, more relevant move than a similar move with weak volume. Therefore, if you are
Page | 27
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
looking at a large price movement, you should also examine the volume to see whether it tells
the same story.
The other use of volume is to confirm chart patterns. Patterns such as head and shoulders,
triangles, flags and other price patterns can be confirmed with volume. In most chart patterns,
there are several pivotal points that are vital to what the chart is able to convey. Basically, if
the volume is not there to confirm the pivotal moments of a chart pattern, the quality of the
signal formed by the pattern is weakened.
Another important idea in technical analysis is that price is preceded by volume. Volume is
closely monitored to form ideas on upcoming trend reversals. If volume is starting to
decrease in an uptrend, it is usually a sign that the upward run is about to end.
Now that some of the important factors of technical analysis are understood, we can move on
to charts, which help to identify trading opportunities in prices movements.
Charts: In technical analysis, charts are similar to the charts that you see in any business
setting. A chart is simply a graphical representation of a series of prices over a set time frame.
For example, a chart may show a stock's price movement over a one-year period, where each
point on the graph represents the closing price for each day the stock is traded
There are several things that you should be aware of when looking at a chart, as these factors
can affect the information that is provided. They include the time scale, the price scale and
the price point properties used.
The Time Scale: The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which
can vary from decades to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily,
weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter the time frame, the more detailed the
chart. Each data point can represent the closing price of the period or show the open, the high,
the low and the close depending on the chart used.
The Price Scale and Price Point Properties: The price scale is on the right-hand side of the
chart. It shows a stock's current price and compares it to past data points. This may seem like
a simple concept in that the price scale goes from lower prices to higher prices as you move
along the scale from the bottom to the top. The problem, however, is in the structure of the
scale itself. A scale can either be constructed in a linear (arithmetic) or logarithmic way, and
both of these options are available on most charting services.
Charts: There are four main types of charts that are used by investors and traders depending
on the information that they are seeking and their individual skill levels. The chart types are:
the line chart, the bar chart, the candlestick chart and the point and figure chart.
Line Chart: The most basic of the four charts is the line chart because it represents only the
closing prices over a set period of time. The line is formed by connecting the closing prices
over the time frame. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the
individual points such as the high, low and opening prices. However, the closing price is
often considered to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low
for the day and this is why it is the only value used in line charts.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Bar Charts: The bar chart expands on the line chart by adding several more key pieces of
information to each data point. The chart is made up of a series of vertical lines that represent
each data point. This vertical line represents the high and low for the trading period, along
with the closing price. The close and open are represented on the vertical line by a horizontal
dash. The opening price on a bar chart is illustrated by the dash that is located on the left side
of the vertical bar. Conversely, the close is represented by the dash on the right. Generally, if
the left dash (open) is lower than the right dash (close) then the bar will be shaded black,
representing an up period for the stock, which means it has gained value. A bar that is colored
red signals that the stock has gone down in value over that period. When this is the case, the
dash on the right (close) is lower than the dash on the left (open)
Candlestick Charts: The candlestick chart is similar to a bar chart, but it differs in the way
that it is visually constructed. Similar to the bar chart, the candlestick also has a thin vertical
line showing the period's trading range. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar
on the vertical line, which illustrates the difference between the open and close. And, like bar
charts, candlesticks also rely heavily on the use of colors to explain what has happened
during the trading period. A major problem with the candlestick color configuration,
however, is that different sites use different standards; therefore, it is important to understand
the candlestick configuration used at the chart site you are working with. There are two color
constructs for days up and one for days that the price falls. When the price of the stock is up
and closes above the opening trade, the candlestick will usually be white or clear. If the stock
has traded down for the period, then the candlestick will usually be red or black, depending
on the site. If the stock's price has closed above the previous day‟s close but below the day's
open, the candlestick will be black or filled with the color that is used to indicate an up day.
Page | 29
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Charts are one of the most fundamental aspects of technical analysis. Now let us look at
different types of chart patterns and how these chart patterns work in understanding and
predicting the future price movements of a stock.
Chart Patterns: A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a trading
signal, or a sign of future price movements. There are two types of patterns within this area of
technical analysis, reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will
reverse upon completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals that
a trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found over charts of
any timeframe.
Head and Shoulders: This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical
analysis. Head and shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the
security is likely to move against the previous trend. As it is seen clearly in the given below
chart which depicts an inverse head and shoulders pattern. Here an investor can buy above
the neckline price.
Entry
Point
Cup and Handle: A cup and handle chart is a bullish continuation pattern in which the
upward trend has paused but will continue in an upward direction once the pattern is
confirmed. As you can see in chart below, this price pattern forms what looks like a cup,
which is preceded by an upward trend. The handle follows the cup formation and is formed
by a generally downward/sideways movement in the security's price. Once the price
movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in the handle, the upward trend can
continue. There is a wide ranging time frame for this type of pattern, with the span ranging
from several months to more than a year.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Flag and Pennant: These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are
formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by a generally sideways price
movement. This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same
direction as the move that started the trend. The patterns are generally thought to last from
one to three weeks.
As you can see in the chart, there is little difference between a pennant and a flag. The main
difference between these price movements can be seen in the middle section of the chart
pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized by converging trendlines, much like
what is seen in a symmetrical triangle. The middle section on the flag pattern, on the other
hand, shows a channel pattern, with no convergence between the trendlines. In both cases, the
trend is expected to continue when the price moves above the upper trendline.
Triangle Formation: Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in
technical analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are
the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns are
considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months.
The symmetrical triangle is a pattern in which two trendlines converge toward each other.
This pattern is neutral in that a breakout to the upside or downside is a confirmation of a trend
in that direction. In an ascending triangle, the upper trendline is flat, while the bottom
trendline is upward sloping. This is generally thought of as a bullish pattern in which chartists
look for an upside breakout. In a descending triangle, the lower trendline is flat and the upper
trendline is descending. This is generally seen as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a
downside breakout.
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Entry
Point
Moving Averages: Most chart patterns show a lot of variation in price movement. This can
make it difficult for traders to get an idea of a security's overall trend. One simple method
traders use to combat this is to apply moving averages. A moving average is the average price
of a security over a set amount of time. By plotting a security's average price, the price
movement is smoothed out. Once the day-to-day fluctuations are removed, traders are better
able to identify the true trend and increase the probability that it will work in their favour.
There are 3 types of moving averages:
Simple Moving Average
Linear Moving Average
Exponential Moving Average
The moving average used in this report is the Exponential Moving Average as it reacts
quickly to the price changes as compared to the other two. Moving averages can be used to
quickly identify whether a security is moving in an uptrend or a downtrend depending on the
direction of the moving average.
As shown in the two charts below moving averages is even useful in identifying the support
and resistance levels also:
Page | 32
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Indicators and Oscillators: Indicators are calculations based on the price and the volume of a
security that measure such things as money flow, trends, volatility and momentum. Indicators
are used as a secondary measure to the actual price movements and add additional
information to the analysis of securities. Indicators are used in two main ways: to confirm
price movement and the quality of chart patterns, and to form buy and sell signals
Different types of Indicators and Oscillators:
Accumulation/Distribution Line
Average Directional Index
Moving Average Convergence
Relative Strength Index
Now that we know what is Fundamental and Technical Analysis and how it helps an investor
for better investment in to any stock. Following it is the data and analysis of Nifty50 stocks.
Page | 33
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
ABB. LTD
Industry: Electric Equipment Switchgear/Circuit Face Value: Rs2.00
Breaker. Market Value: Rs.426.7
NSE Scrip Code: ABB Beta: 0.89 Book Value : 103.02
Rs.103.02
Page | 34
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
ACC LTD.
0% Promoters
Shares Holding Other Companies
19% Foreign NRI
Foreign Institutions
46% Foreign Industries
15% Central Govt
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
1% General Public
13%
Financial Institutions
1% 5% Foreign Promoter
Page | 35
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
AMBUJA CEMENT
Industry: Cement & Cement Products. Face Value: Rs2.00
Market Value: Rs.70.6
NSE Scrip Code: AMBUJACEM Beta: 0.88 Book Value : Rs.39.45
1% 1% 1% Promoters
Share Holding
Other Companies
Foreign NRI
23% Foreign O c b
46% Foreign Institutions
Others
2% N Banks Mutual Funds
1% General Public
9%
Financial Institutions
Foreign Promoter
16%
Page | 36
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
4% 2% Promoters
Share Holding
6% Other Companies
Foreign NRI
8%
39% Foreign O c b
Foreign Others
Foreign Institutions
Others
31% N Banks Mutual Funds
9% General Public
1% Financial Institutions
Page | 37
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
2% 4% Promoters
Share Holding
7% Directors
Other Companies
Page | 38
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
1% 8% General Public
Financial Institutions
4%
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 46.93 1.12 5.55 32.49
27.15 1.38 7.06 31.27 600
2000-2001
500
2001-2002 22.66 2.16 14.50 38.83 400
2002-2003 42.18 1.40 5.26 39.99 300
2003-2004 56.9 2.46 8.42 34.95 200
2004-2005 30.97 1.66 11.41 44.21 100
0
2005-2006 9.69 1.41 43.89 35.33
2006-2007 77.98 1.07 3.88 37.12
2007-2008 43.72 1.26 9.34 9.72
2008-2009 20.35 1.12 18.48 38.66
Page | 39
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
22%
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
46%
5% Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
2%
3% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
18%
General Public
Financial Institutions
4%
Foreign Promoter
Page | 40
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
CAIRN LTD.
\
Industry: Face Value: Rs 10.00
PLA LTD. Oil Drilling and Exploration
Market Value: Rs. 184.10
NSE Scrip Code: CAIRN Beta: 1.00 Book Value: Rs. 168.67
2%
Share Holding Directors
Other Companies
15%
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
10%
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
63% 3%
2% General Public
Financial Institutions
5%
Foreign Promoter
Page | 41
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
CIPLA LTD.
16%
21% Share Holding Promoters
3% Other Companies
3% Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
12% Foreign Institutions
17% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
22% 5% Financial Institutions
1%
Foreign Promoter
Page | 42
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
DLF LTD.
Page | 43
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
14% Promoters
2% Share Holding
Other Companies
Foreign NRI
5%
1% Foreign Institutions
7% Central Govt
58% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
12%
General Public
Financial Institutions
1%
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 10.18 1.02 5.62 32.69
500
2000-2001 11.44 0.75 4.24 33.1
400
2001-2002 13.24 1.02 5.75 32.09
300
2002-2003 19.38 1.00 3.86 38.75
200
2003-2004 22.21 2.42 9.60 40.82
100
2004-2005 23.11 2.08 9.18 39.35
0
2005-2006 27.32 2.70 11.66 41.74
2006-2007 25.01 1.92 10.58 40.61
2007-2008 34.13 2.77 12.47 38.03
2008-2009 22.1 2.11 11.11 37.05
Page | 44
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Page | 45
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Page | 46
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
8% Share Holding Other Companies
10% 24% Foreign NRI
4%
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institution
9% Foreign Industries
18%
Others
1% NBanksMutualFun
26% General Public
0%
Financial Institutions
Page | 47
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
Share Holding Other Companies
26% 29% Foreign NRI
Foreign Institutions
Others
5%
N Banks Mutual Funds
8%
General Public
29% Financial Institutions
3%
Foreign Promoter
Page | 48
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
13% Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
8% 32%
Foreign O c b
3%
Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
9%
Others
4% N Banks Mutual Funds
0% General Public
29%
2% Financial Institutions
Page | 49
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
4% Directors
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
15% Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
3%
Foreign Industries
Central Govt
52% Others
15%
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
11% Financial Institutions
Foreign Promoter
Page | 50
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
2% Directors
11%
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
10%
Foreign O c b
4% Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
73%
General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 51
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
ITC LTD.
Industry: Cigarettes Face Value: Rs 1.00
Market Value: Rs. 332.8
NSE Scrip Code: ITC Beta: 0.53 Book Value: Rs. 444.94
1%
Share Holding Other Companies
5%
Foreign NRI
22% Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
32% Foreign Industries
Central Govt
12%
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
15% General Public
13%
Financial Institutions
Page | 52
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
3% 0%
0% 0% Directors
0% Share Holding Other Companies
18% Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Others
6% Foreign Institutions
37%
Foreign Industries
7%
Central Govt
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
29% General Public
0% 0% Financial Institutions
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 32.29 6.65 22.96 26.09
38.59 5.77 21.09 30.14 1600
2000-2001 1400
2001-2002 46.94 3.92 14.84 18.8 1200
1000
2002-2003 55.41 2.93 11.34 43 800
600
2003-2004 64.31 4.07 16.22 37.49 400
2004-2005 60.4 4.25 22.22 36.05 200
0
2005-2006 6.07 8.14 32.15 34.08
2006-2007 6.96 5.14 21.72 33.89
2007-2008 8.2 6.48 25.15 33.12
2008-2009 8.65 5.10 21.37 36.6
Page | 53
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
1%
0% 4% 7% Promoters
Share Holding
Directors
7% Other Companies
Foreign NRI
49%
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
30% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
Financial Institutions
0%2% 0%
Year EPS P/B P/E
Market Price
2006-2007 1.18 6.63 80.17
3.96 7.63 25.92 150
2007-2008
2008-2009 3.23 1.38 15.51 100
50
0
2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009
Page | 54
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
4% Promoters
Share Holding Other Companies
16%
14%
Foreign NRI
4% 6% Foreign Institutions
1%
Others
Financial Institutions
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 43.23 71.21 207.50 11.55
10000
2000-2001 81.71 21.10 49.98 11.9
8000
2001-2002 118.11 12.48 31.74 17
6000
2002-2003 148.2 9.39 27.35 19.95 4000
2003-2004 186.59 10.12 26.47 78.24 2000
2004-2005 70.38 11.65 32.07 18.84 0
2005-2006 87.21 11.91 34.19 58.32
2006-2007 59.33 11.78 34.02 19.85
2007-2008 76.03 6.11 18.94 49.77
2008-2009 101.58 4.26 13.03 27.03
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Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
4% 0% Other Companies
Share Holding
Foreign O c b
16%
Foreign Institutions
9% Central Govt
44% Others
6%
1% N Banks Mutual Funds
Page | 56
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
5% 0% Promoters
Share Holding
Other Companies
11% Foreign NRI
5%
0% Foreign O c b
46% Foreign Institutions
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
26%
General Public
5% Financial Institutions
1% 1% Foreign Promoter
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
2002-2003 26.6
2003-2004 17.57 600
500
2004-2005 11.75 2.83 16.76 23.22 400
300
2005-2006 33.65 4.21 13.94 10.34 200
2006-2007 16.84 4.69 32.02 21.91 100
0
2007-2008 5.1 6.82 44.42 21.99
2008-2009 7.54 1.61 11.15 15.9
Page | 57
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
0% Promoters
8% Share Holding
Other Companies
9% Foreign NRI
0% 3%
0% Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
51% Others
23% N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
Financial Institutions
5%
1% Foreign Promoter
Page | 58
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
1% Directors
1%
6% 0%
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
25%
14% Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
0%
Foreign Industries
15% Others
Page | 59
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
2% Promoters
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
21% 24% Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
Central Govt
9% 8% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
0% General Public
4% Financial Institutions
4%
5% 23% Foreign Promoter
0%0%
Page | 60
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
0% Other Companies
6% Share Holding Foreign NRI
Foreign Institutions
21%
Foreign Industries
0% Others
54% 0%
N Banks Mutual Funds
3%
2% General Public
14%
Financial Institutions
Foreign Promoter
Page | 61
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
NTPC LTD.
Promoters
2% 2% Share Holding
2% 3% Other Companies
1%
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
Page | 62
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
2% 2% Promoters
6% Share Holding
4%
Other Companies
Foreign NRI
12%
Foreign Institutions
Others
Financial Institutions
Page | 63
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
2% 1%
4% Promoters
5% Share Holding
2% Other Companies
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
86% Employees
Financial Institutions
Page | 64
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
15%
4% Share Holding Other Companies
3% Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
19% 58%
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
1%
Financial Institutions
Page | 65
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
3% 1% Other Companies
7% 3% Share Holding
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
13%
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
64% 9% General Public
Financial Institutions
Foreign Promoter
Page | 66
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
4% Promoters
No of Shares Other Companies
15%
1% Foreign NRI
1% Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
54% Others
20%
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
5% Financial Institutions
Page | 67
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
8% Share Holding Other Companies
1% Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
8%
Others
1%
67% N Banks Mutual Funds
3%
General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 68
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
7% Share Holding
Other Companies
12% Foreign NRI
3%
46% Foreign Institutions
9% Central Govt
Others
0%
N Banks Mutual Funds
17%
5% General Public
1% Financial Institutions
Page | 69
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
Share Holding
Other Companies
20%
Foreign NRI
43% Foreign Institutions
12% Central Govt
Others
7%
N Banks Mutual Funds
14%
General Public
1% 3% Financial Institutions
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 22.28 1.45 10.76 19.46
2000-2001 22.09 1.03 8.48 19.73 1400
1200
2001-2002 23.93 1.11 9.32 21.28 1000
2002-2003 9.83 1.16 21.92 56.09 800
600
2003-2004 20.96 3.07 36.45 21.25 400
2004-2005 28.03 1.96 18.90 19.01 200
0
2005-2006 34.42 1.85 17.77 18.37
2006-2007 35.69 1.33 13.85 17.68
2007-2008 42.08 2.87 29.73 15.93
2008-2009 47.19 1.11 10.92 16.19
Page | 70
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Foreign NRI
Foreign Institutions
General Public
85%
Financial Institutions
Page | 71
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
SIEMENS LTD.
Directors
3% 4% Share Holding Other Companies
6%
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
15% Central Govt
Others
55% N Banks Mutual Funds
17% General Public
Financial Institutions
Foreign Promoter
Page | 72
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
13% Share Holding
Other Companies
Foreign NRI
6%
Foreign O c b
4% Foreign Institutions
4% Foreign Industries
Central Govt
60%
10% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
3% Financial Institutions
Page | 73
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
1% Promoters
2% Share Holding
4% 7% Other Companies
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
86% General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 74
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
3% 5% Promoters
1% Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
14% Foreign Others
Foreign Institutions
49%
Central Govt
17% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
4% Financial Institutions
4% 3% Foreign Promoter
Page | 75
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
3% 3% Promoters
5%
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
20%
Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
64% Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
5%
General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 76
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
1%
Shares Holding Promoters
Other Companies
16%
Foreign NRI
6% Foreign Institutions
1% Foreign Industries
53% Others
16%
N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
6%
1% Financial Institutions
Page | 77
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
5% Promoters
3% 5%
Share Holding Other Companies
Foreign O c b
12% Foreign Institutions
1% Central Govt
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
74%
General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 78
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
15% Share Holding Directors
Other Companies
Foreign NRI
9% 38% Foreign O c b
Foreign Others
2% Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
12% Central Govt
Others
1% N Banks Mutual Funds
17% 1% General Public
5% Financial Institutions
Page | 79
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
Share Holding
Other Companies
22% Foreign O c b
31%
Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
16% Central Govt
1%
Others
1%
7% 18% N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
4% Financial Institutions
Page | 80
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Promoters
Share Holding
Other Companies
21%
31% Foreign O c b
Foreign Institutions
Central Govt
21% Others
3% N Banks Mutual Funds
21% General Public
3% Financial Institutions
Year EPS P/B P/E D.Y
Market Price
1999-2000 7.81 0.96 14.74 40.67
2000-2001 16.56 0.95 7.39 39.31 800
700
2001-2002 7.89 0.74 12.39 78.73 600
500
2002-2003 27.21 1.54 4.91 32.89 400
2003-2004 47.33 3.13 8.11 23.83 300
200
2004-2005 62.77 3.14 6.39 23.64 100
2005-2006 63.35 3.04 8.47 23.39 0
2006-2007 66.62 1.83 6.75 26.15
2007-2008 66.21 2.32 10.49 29.39
2008-2009 71.2 0.61 2.89 27.15
Page | 81
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
UNITECH LTD.
3% Promoters
Share Holding Other Companies
1% 10% Foreign NRI
Foreign O c b
44% Foreign Institutions
Others
N Banks Mutual Funds
34%
General Public
Financial Institutions
8% Foreign Promoter
Page | 82
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
WIPRO LTD.
5% 1% Promoters
2% 1% Share Holding
Directors
1% 7% Other Companies
Foreign NRI
3%
Foreign Institutions
Foreign Industries
Others
80% N Banks Mutual Funds
General Public
Financial Institutions
Page | 83
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Recommendations
Scrip Name Strategy CMP Target % Upside Return
Axis Bank BUY 1190 1459 23
Hindalco Ltd. BUY 163 207 27
GAIL BUY 419 553 32
Reliance Industries BUY 1034 1260 22
Notes:
The investment horizon for the above given recommendations is for 12 months.
The given CMP is as on 7th May, 2010.
Disclaimer:
The given recommendations are on basis of personal opinion and examination of chart
patterns, they have no connection with Angel Broking Ltd.
The final decision and consequences based on this information is solely yours. Moreover, in
keeping with regulatory guidelines, there is no guarantee of any returns on investments.
Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not
predictions and may be subject to change without notice.
Page | 84
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
Glossary
Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in
comparison to the market as a whole.
A Doji is formed when the open and the close are the same or very close. The length of the
shadows are not important. The Japanese interpretation is that the bulls and the bears are
conflicting. The appearance of a Doji should alert the investor of major indecision.
The Gravestone Doji is formed when the open and the close occur at the low of the day. It is
found occasionally at market bottoms, but it's forte is calling market tops. The name,
Gravestone Doji, is derived by the formation of the signal looking like a gravestone.
The Long-legged Doji has one or two very long shadows. Long-legged Doji's are often signs
of market tops. If the open and the close are in the center of the session's trading range, the
signal is referred to as a Rickshaw Man. . The Japanese believe these signals to mean that the
trend has "lost it's sense of direction."
The Bullish Engulfing Pattern is formed at the end of a downtrend. A white body is formed
that opens lower and closes higher than the black candle open and close from the previous
day. This complete engulfing of the previous day's body represents overwhelming buying
pressure dissipating the selling pressure.
The Bearish Engulfing Pattern is directly opposite to the bullish pattern. It is created at the
end of an up-trending market. The black real body completely engulfs the previous day's
white body. This shows that the bears are now overwhelming the bulls.
The Dark Cloud Cover is a two-day bearish pattern found at the end of an upturn or at the
top of a congested trading area. The first day of the pattern is a strong white real body. The
second day's price opens higher than any of the previous day's trading range.
The Piercing Pattern is a bottom reversal. It is a two candle pattern at the end of a declining
market. The first day real body is black. The second day is a long white body. The white day
opens sharply lower, under the trading range of the previous day. The price comes up to
where it closes above the 50% level of the black body.
Hammer and Hanging-man are candlesticks with long lower shadows and small real bodies.
The bodies are at the top of the trading session. This pattern at the bottom of the down-trend
is called a Hammer. It is hammering out a base. The Japanese word is takuri, meaning "trying
to gauge the depth"
The Morning Star is a bottom reversal signal. Like the morning star, the planet Mercury, it
foretells the sunrise, or the rising prices. The pattern consists of a three day signal.
The Evening Star is the exact opposite of the morning star. The evening star, the planet
Venus, occurs just before the darkness sets in. The evening star is found at the end of the
uptrend.
A Shooting Star sends a warning that the top is near. It got its name by looking like a
shooting star.The Shooting Star Formation, at the bottom of a trend, is a bullish signal. It is
known as an inverted hammer. It is important to wait for the bullish verification. Now that we
have seen some of the basic signals, let's take a look at the added power of some of the other
formations.
Page | 85
Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Equity Market
References
Websites:
Available from: http://www.nseindia.com/ [Assessed March and April 2010]
Available from: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Markets/Stocks/listpage/
[Assessed April 2010]
Available from: http://www.icharts.in/charts-old.html [Assessed May 2010]
Available from: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
[Assessed March, April and May 2010]
Software:
Prowess (Cmie)
Iris (Spider Software)
Magazine:
Data Bank, Dalal Street, 28th March 2010, Volume xxv. No.7
Books:
Steven Achelis,2003, Technical Analysis from A-Z, Equis International Inc.
Technical and Fundamental Analysis by Indian Institute of Banking and Finance
Bodie, Kane, Marcus and Mohanty,2010,8th Edition, Investments, Tata McGraw Hill.
Page | 86