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Preface
Optimization plays an important role not only in science and technology,
operations research but also in economics and finance. This book discusses
applications of optimization theory and methods in Economics and Finance.
It is well known that the general equilibrium theory is based on convex op-
timization problems while finding Nash equilibriums is mainly focused on
nonconvex optimization problems. The purpose of this book is to reveal
applications of optimization theory and methods in economics and illus-
trate these on some examples of Mongolian economy. The authors assume
that the reader is familiar with mathematical programming, optimization
techniques, optimal control, economics and finance as well as game theory.
This book is based on the lectures on optimization courses given by authors
to graduate students in applied mathematics and business of the School
of Applied Science and Engineering, and the School of Business of Na-
tional University of Mongolia. The book is organized in 7 chapters. These
chapters are independed and devoted to various areas of economics such
as Solow growth model, consumer theory, game theory, cost minimization,
investment and population models, and mathematical model for finance. In
chapter 1, it is shown that the Solow growth model with nonconvex pro-
duction functions leads to parametric and global optimization problems.
We reduce the per capita consumption maximization problem to one vari-
able global optimization and provide with numerical results obtained by
a global search algorithm. In this chapter, an optimal control approach
to the Solow growth model has been proposed. Chapter 2 deals with the
nonconvex utility maximization problem. Depending on types of economic
market , we classify the problem as continuous, parametric, nonconvex and
discrete utility maximization problems. The corresponding optimization
methods for solving these problems are also discussed in the chapter. In
chapter 3, we present an algorithm for solving non-zero sum three-person
and N-person games. We reduce the problem of finding Nash equilibrium
points to a global optimization problem. Numerical results are provided for
3 and 4 person games. A cost minimization problem is discussed in chap-
ter 4. We show that the average cost function is pseudoconvex. Calculus
variations approach to economic order quantity model was also considered
in this chapter. In chapter 5, investment models, including the valuation
model and optimal control problem in financial modeling are discussed. The
conditional gradient method has been proposed for solving the optimal con-
trol problem and numerical results are provided. Population models are
described in chapter 6. We applied the deterministic and stochastic models
to the Mongolian population growth. Optimization applications in finance
presented and analyzed in chapter 7. Models of marketing advertisement for
insurance companies and credit risk evaluation models have been examined
on examples of Mongolian economy.
The authors
Contents
3 Game Theory 38
3.1 The Curvilinear Search Algorithm for Solving Three-Person
Game . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1.1 Non-zero sum three-person game . . . . . . . . . . . 39
3.1.2 The curvilinear global search algorithm . . . . . . . . 44
3.1.3 Computational results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
3.2 A Computational Method for Solving N -Person Game . . . 49
3.2.1 Nonzero sum N -person game . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
3.2.2 Computational results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
5 Investment Model 69
5.1 The Basic Valuation Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
5.1.1 Optimization Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
5.1.2 Numerical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
5.2 Optimal Control Problem in Financial Modeling . . . . . . . 74
5.2.1 Conditional gradient method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
5.2.2 Computational algorithm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
5.2.3 Numerical Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
6 Population Model 81
6.1 Application of Stochastic Differential Equations in Popula-
tion growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
6.1.1 Population models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
6.1.2 Stochastic models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
where ϕ(k) is the Solow per capita production function. Then per capita
capital accumulation equation is
0
k = s(t)ϕ(k) − (µ + η)k
(1.5)
k(0) = k0 .
ϕ0 (k ∗ ) = (µ + η). (1.10)
K(t)
k(t) = . (1.14)
L(t)
µKL + L0 K
s(t) = . (1.16)
Lf (K, L, t)
KB = max K(t),
tA ≤t≤tB
µKL + L0 K
φ(K, L, t) = f (K, L, t) − .
L
φ(K, L, t) ≥ 0, ∀t ∈ [tA , tB ]
From Definition 1.1 and (1.16), we can easily notice that 0 ≤ s(t) ≤ 1.
Now we consider per capita consumption maximization problem on a
given interval [tA , tB ].
(1 − s(t))f (K, L, t)
c(t) = → max, t ∈ [tA , tB ]
L
subject to
µKL + L0 K
s(t) = .
Lf (K, L, t)
This problem is equivalent to the following one dimensional parametric max-
imization problem.
f (K, L, t) µKL + L0 K
F (K, t) = − → max, t ∈ [tA , tB ]. (1.17)
L L2 K
F (K, t̂) − F (K, t) ≤ M t̂ − t
|f (K(t̂), L(t̂), t̂) − f (K(t), L(t), t)| < M |t̂ − t|, ∀t, t̂ ∈ [tA , tB ].
Numerical Results
Example 1.1.
φ(K(t), L(t))
F (K(t), L(t)) = → max, t ∈ [1, 5]
L(t) K
where
φ(K, L) = −L2 K 4 + 8LK 3 − 9K 2 + 5, K ∈ [1; 4]
and the labor grows at exponential rate η.
Example 1.2.
φ(K(t), L(t))
F (K(t), L(t)) = → max, t ∈ [1, 5]
L(t) K
where
Example 1.3.
φ(K(t), L(t))
F (K(t), L(t)) = → max, t ∈ [1, 4]
L(t) K
where
φ(K, L) = log(K 2 + LK)/K, K ∈ [1; 3]
and the labor grows at exponential rate η.
The numerical results using MATLAB are given in the following tables,
respectively.
8 Solow Growth Theory
c0 (k) = ϕ0 (k) − (µ + η) = 0.
Denote by D:
2
D = 2ϕ0 (M − ϕ0 )(µ + η) − A − 4(µ + η)2 (M − ϕ0 )2 ϕ20 .
(1.24)
1.2 Global Optimization Approach to the Solow Growth Theory 11
We solve the above problem numerically on [0, 1] for the given parameters
of ϕ0 , M, µ, γ L0 , T, σ and t = 0; t = 0.5; t = 1. The numerical results are
given in the following tables.
Table 2. t = 0
ϕ0 M µ γ L0 T σ Solutions
∗
k c∗ s∗
1 7 0.01 0.2 2 5 0.1 3.6992 5.6243 0.1694
2 12 0.2 0.13 3 8 0.21 2.6709 7.7980 0.2998
5 15 0.043 0.5 4 9 0.42 0.6153 13.390 0.0896
Table 3. t = 0.5
ϕ0 M µ γ L0 T σ Solutions
∗
k c∗ s∗
1 7 0.01 0.2 2 5 0.1 3.7783 5.7388 0.1554
2 12 0.2 0.13 3 8 0.21 2.9082 8.7641 0.2306
5 15 0.043 0.5 4 9 0.42 0.7794 14.4122 0.0336
Table 4. t = 1
ϕ0 M µ γ L0 T σ Solutions
∗
k c∗ s∗
1 7 0.01 0.2 2 5 0.1 3.8679 5.8580 0.1408
2 12 0.2 0.13 3 8 0.21 3.1960 9.6917 0.1648
5 15 0.043 0.5 4 9 0.42 0.9767 14.8359 0.0096
|f (K 0 , L) − f (K 00 , L)| ≤ M kK 0 − K 00 k, ∀L > 0.
Then it is clear that the function ϕ(k) is nonconvex and satisfies the Lips-
chitz condition with the constant M .
1.2 Global Optimization Approach to the Solow Growth Theory 13
Choose an arbitrary point k10 ∈ [0, b] and set y 0 = k10 . Define piecewise
linear function S1 (k1 ) = P (k1 , y 0 ).
Let y 1 be the solution of the problem:
Analogously, we can write the iteration process for the t-th step as follows:
c∗ = max ϕ(k) − 2k .
[0,5.4]
If we solve the problem by the above algorithm, then solutions will be:
k ∗ = 5.06; c∗ = 4.3277.
1.3 Optimal Control Approach to the Solow Growth Theory 15
K(t)
= x(t), x0 (t) ≥ 0, ∀t ∈ [0, T ]. (1.30)
L(t)
or equivalently,
L0 (t)
x0 (t) + x(t) = sF (x(t), 1) − µx(t). (1.31)
L(t)
Now we consider the average per capita consumption over the period T .
1 T 1 T
Z Z
ϕ(x) − x0 − (µ + η)x dt
J= c(t)dt =
T 0 T 0
Then the average per capita consumption maximization problem has the
following form:
max J (1.35)
subject to:
x0 (t) + (µ + η)x(t) − ϕ(x(t) ≤ 0, ∀t ∈ [0, T ],
(1.36)
x0 (t) ≥ 0, ∀t ∈ [0, T ].
Introducing variables u1 ≥ 0 and u2 such that x0 (t) = u1 , u2 ≥ 0, we have
1 T
Z
max J = ϕ(x) − u1 − (µ + η)x dt
T 0
x0 = u1
u1 + x(µ + η) − ϕ(x) + u2 = 0, ∀t ∈ [0, T ]
u1 ≥ 0
u2 ≥ 0
x(0) = x0 ,
ϕ0 (a)a
s=
ϕ(a)
1 T
Z
F (x, L, t)
max J = (1 − u) dt dt
T 0 L(t)
x0 = uF (x, L, t) − µx
x(0) = x0
0 ≤ u(t) ≤ 1, u ∈ [0, T ],
with K(t) = x(t), s(t) = u(t), t ∈ [0, T ] and given function of L(t) and
parameter µ.
Bibliography
n
X
D = {x ∈ Rn+ pi xi = m, xi ≥ 0, i = 1, ..., n},
i=1
Algorithm CUMP 1.
Remark 2.1. Since the feasible set D is simple, the solution of linear pro-
gramming problem in step2 can be found as follows:
minx∈D hf 0 (xk ), xi = min{hf 0 (xk ), z 1 i, · · · , hf 0 (xk ), z n i},
where z j = (0, 0, · · · , pmj , 0, · · · , 0), j = 1, 2, ..., n
Remark 2.2. It is clear that the function ϕ(α) is convex and therefore, one
dimensional minimization problem in step 4 can be solved by the bisection
method [24].
Now we consider the continuous utility maximization problem with a
nondifferentiable continuous concave function U on Rn+ . Then problem (2.2)
reduces to nondifferential optimization problem. In order to propose an
algorithm for this case, we need to introduce some notions from convex
analysis. Let Q be a closed and convex set and x0 ∈ Rn . Consider the
convex minimization problem
1
ψ(x) = kx − x0 k2 −→ min, x ∈ Q, (2.4)
2
Definition 2.1. The solution to problem (2.4) is called projection of point
x0 onto the set Q.
Denote by kPD (x0 ) − x0 k = min kx − x0 k.
x∈D
Problem (2.4) can be also solved by the method of feasible direction
using Algorithm CUMP1 with functions ψ(x) and ψ 0 (x) = kx − x0 k.
Definition 2.2. Let f : Rn+ −→ R be a continuously concave function. A
vector g is called a subgradient of function f at point x0 ∈ Rn+ if ((x) −
f (x0 ) ≥ hg, x − x0 i holds for all x ∈ Rn+ . The set of all subgradients of f at
x0 , ∂f (x0 ), is called the subdifferential of function f at point x0 .
Theorem 2.2. [18]. ∂f (x0 ) is a convex compact set.
Example 2.1. Let functions fi : Rn+ −→ R, i = 1, ..., m be continuously
convex. Then f (x) = max fi (x) is continuous and convex with
1≤i≤m
n
∂f (x) = conv{∂fi (x)|i ∈ I(x)} = {z ∈ Rn |z = αi z i , z i ∈ ∂fi (x), i ∈
P
i=1
n
P
I(x), αi = 1, 0 ≤ αi ≤ 1}, where I(x) = {i : fi (x) = f (x)}
i=1
Now we are ready to present an algorithm for solving CUMP for the non
differentiable case.
Algorithm CUMP 2.
2.1 Continuous Utility Maximization
Problem 23
Step 1. Choose a x0 ∈ D and a sequence εk such that
∞
P
εk > 0, εk −→ 0, εk = ∞. Small parameter δ > 0 is given. Set k := 0
k=0
Step 2. Compute f (xk ) and find a g ∈ ∂f (xk ).
Step 3. Construct xk+1 as projection:
g
xk+1 := PD (xk − εk ).
kgk
Step 4. If |f (xk+1 ) − f (xk )| ≤ δ then terminate and x∗ := xk is a global
minimizer to problem (2.2)
Step 5.Set k := k + 1 and return Step2.
k
r2 + ε2i
P
i=1
f (xk ) − f (x∗ ) ≤ L k
P
2 εi
i=0
.
where x∗ ∈ arg min f (x).
x∈D
Example 2.3.
5
X
p i xi = m
i=1
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ..., n, (2.7)
n
where consumer’s utility function U : R+ → R is strictly concave and
twice differentiable with respect to x at each t ∈ [tA , tB ], I(t) is con-
sumer’s income at moment t, pi (t) is price of goods i per unit. Function
pi : R+ → R+ , i = 1, 2, ..., n are assumed to be continuous. t is time as
parameter, t ∈ [tA , tB ]. xi , i = 1, 2, ..., n is quantity of good i a consumer
purchases at moment t. Parametric utility maximization problem is a con-
vex programming problem and has a unique solution at each t ∈ [tA , tB ],
I(t). This problem is a hard parametric optimization problem.
2.2 Parametric Utility Maximization
Problem 25
Lemma 2.1. Assume that the utility function U (x, t) is a differentiable with
respect to t and satisfies the Lipschitz condition with constant M for each
x ∈ D i.e.
|U (x, t̂) − U (x, t)| ≤ M |t̂ − t|, ∀t ∈ [tA , tB ]
Then for a given ε > 0, there exists discretization
tA = t0 < t1 < ... < ti−1 < ti < ti+1 < ... < tN = tB
such that
where
n
X
∗ n
U (x (t), t) = max U (x, t), t ∈ [tA , tB ], D = {x ∈ R | pi xi = m}.
x∈D
i=1
Numerical Results
Consider the utility maximization problem:
n
Y
U M : u(x) = (xi − ci )αi → max, t ∈ [tA , tB ], (2.8)
i=1
n
X
pi (t)xi = I(t), (2.9)
i=1
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ..., n. (2.10)
where consumer’s utility function u(x) is strictly concave and twice differ-
entiable with respect to x at each t ∈ [tA , tB ], xi i = 1, 2, ..., n is a quantity
of good i and ci i = 1, 2, ..., n is minima required quantity of good i, I(t) is
consumer’s income at moment t, pi (t) is price of goods i per unit. Function
pi : R+ → R+ , i = 1, 2, ..., n are assumed to be continuous. t is time as
parameter, t ∈ [tA , tB ]. xi , i = 1, 2, ..., n is quantity of good i a consumer
purchases at moment t.
Problem (2.8) called Stone-Geary’s utility function (SG function) in mi-
croeconomic. We estimated parameters SG function for 5 goods using time
series data of statistics of Mongolia and solved for the following cases.
26 Utility Maximization Problem
Example 2.4. Let pi (t) be a price of goods i and I(t) be a consumer’s bud-
get. Then we can formulate the following problem:
p1 (t) = 26.21t − 46170
p2 (t) = 48.11t − 95767
p3 (t) = 220.3t − 43934
p4 (t) = 26.4t − 52361
p (t) = 419.9t − 83665
5
I(t) = 1341.4t − 2.6727e + 006
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ..., n. (2.13)
Example 2.5.
5
X
pi (t)xi = I(t), (2.15)
i=1
p1 (t) = c1 t2 + c2 t + c3 (c1 = 5.2132, c2 = −20849, c3 = 2.0846e + 007)
p2 (t) = c4 t2 + c5 t + c6 (c4 = 10.849, c5 = −43383, c6 = 4.3371e + 007)
p3 (t) = c7 t2 + c8 t + c9 (c7 = 20.672, c8 = −82558, c9 = 8.243e + 007)
p4 (t) = 0.91792t3 − 5513.6t2 + (1.104e + 007)t − 7.3678e + 009
p5 (t) = 3.2037t3 + −19226t2 + (3.8459e + 007)t + −2.5644e + 010
I(t) = 10.019t3 − 60068t2 + (1.2005e + 008)t + −7.9975e + 010
xi ≥ 0, i = 1, 2, ..., n. (2.16)
U (x) −→ max, x ∈ D,
n
(N U M P ) : (2.17)
D = {x ∈ Rn | pi (xi )xi = m, xi ≥ 0, i = 1, ..., n}
P
i=1
for problem (2.17), and then we can develop an algorithm based on this.
Consider the problem:
Ec (f ) = {y ∈ Rn |f (y) = c}.
Theorem 2.4. If x∗ ∈
/ D and max kf 0 (x)k > 0 then z ∈ D is a global
x∈D
maximizer of problem (2.19) if ad only if
hf 0 (x), x − yi ≤ 0 (2.20)
uα = u + αf 0 (u).
Then, by the concavity of f , we have
2
f (uα ) − f (u) ≤ hf 0 (u), uα − ui = α kf 0 (x)k ,
2.3 Nonconvex Utility Maximization
Problem 29
which implies
2
f (uα ) ≤ f (u) + α kf 0 (x)k < f (u).
Then find α = ᾱ such that
2
f (u) + α kf 0 (x)k = f (z),
that is,
f (u) − f (z)
ᾱ = > 0.
kf 0 (x)k2
Thus we get
2
f (uα ) ≤ f (u) + ᾱ kf 0 (x)k = f (z) < f (u).
Define a function h : Rn → R as
h(α) = f (u + αf 0 (u)) − f (z),
where R+ = {α ∈ R|α ≥ 0}. It is clear that h is continuous on [0, +∞).
Note that h(ᾱ) ≥ 0 and h(0) < 0. There are two cases with respect to the
value of h(ᾱ) which we should consider.
case 1. h(ᾱ) = 0 ( or f (u + αf 0 (u)) = f (z)), then
2
hf 0 (u), u − uᾱ i = hf 0 (u), ᾱf 0 ui = ᾱ kf 0 (u)k > 0
contradicting condition (2.20).
case 2. h(ᾱ) > 0 and h(ᾱ) < 0. Since h is continuous, there exists a point
α0 ∈ (0, ᾱ) such that h(α0 ) = 0 (or f (u + α0 f 0 (u)) = f (z).) Then we have
2
hf 0 (u), u − uα0 i = α0 kf 0 (u)k > 0,
again contradicting condition (2.20).
Thus, in both cases, we find contradictions, proving the theorem. 2
Remark 2.3. Theorem 2.4 states that, in order to conclude that a point
z ∈ D is not a solution of (2.19) if is sufficient to have a pair (v, y) ∈ Rn
such that
which are fulfilled for all y ∈ Ef (z) (f ) and x ∈ D. The proof is complete. 2
Algorithm NUMP
Hence, we obtain f (xk ) < f (xk+1 ) for all k, and the sequence {f (xk )} is
strictly increasing. Since the sequence is bounded from below by f ∗, it has
and satisfies
lim ψ(xk ) = 0.
k→∞
From (2.21) we have f (xk ) < f ∗ for all k. Now define vα as follows:
vα = x∗ + αf 0 (x∗ ).
which implies
2
f (vα ) ≤ f (x∗ ) + α kf 0 (x)k < f (x∗ ). α > 0.
32 Utility Maximization Problem
that is,
f (xk ) − f (x∗ )
αk < < 0.
kf 0 (x)k2
Define a function hk : R+ → R as
lim vᾱk = x∗ .
k→∞
subject to:
n
P
pi xi = m,
i=1 (2.27)
xi nonnegative integers, i = 1, ..., n
where ui : R+ −→ R, i = 1, ..., n, are concave functions, and the positive
parameters pi and m are given. Such separable utility function is justified
in microeconomics by the fact that total preference is the sum of all sepa-
rate preference uj to each good j. This problem is known also ”knapsack”
problem (2.25). For solving (2.26), we use dynamic programming approach
[6]. The general recursive equation for this problem is given by
It has been shown in [23] that formulas (2.28)-(2.30) generate the global
solution to problem (2.26).
Problem 1.
Problem 2.
U = 0.5 log(x1 − 15) + 0.2 log(x2 − 15) + 0.3 log(x3 − 11) → max
Constraints:
n
X
p i xi = I
i=1
n
X
xi − nonnegative integers, where αi ≥ 0, αi = 1
i=1
2.4 Discrete Utility Maximization Problem 35
αi
fi (yi ) = maxh i{xi fi−1 (yi − pi xi )}
m
xi =0,1,... pi
(2.32)
p i xi ≤ y i
yi = 0, ..., m,
fn (m) = n
max U (x),
P
pi xi =m (2.33)
i=1
xi ≥ 0
Problem 3.
Problem 4.
U = 0.1 log(x1 − 10) + 0.2 log(x2 − 8) + 0.3 log(x3 − 2)+
+0.1 log(x4 − 12) + 0.1 log(x5 − 8) → max
20x1 + 30x2 + 40x3 + 50x4 + 60x5 = 10000
xi , (i = 1, 5) are nonnegative integers.
Optimal solutions are : x∗ = {0, 19, 0, 19, 19} and Umax = 2.5015
Bibliography
[3] Avreil,M., Diewert, W.E., Schaible, S., and Ziemba, W.T. Introduc-
tion to Concave and Generalized Concave Functions This volume,
21-50, 1981.
[7] Debreu, G. Theory of Value. John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1959.
[16] Katzner, D.W. Static Demand Theory. MacMillan, New York, N.Y.
i = 1, . . . , m, j = 1, . . . , n, k = 1, . . . , s.
Denote by Dq the set
q
( )
X
q
Dq = u∈R ui = 1, ui ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , q .
i=1
m X
X n X
s
f2 (x, y, z) = bijk xi yj zk ,
i=1 j=1 k=1
m X
X n X
s
f3 (x, y, z) = cijk xi yj zk .
i=1 j=1 k=1
It is clear that
f1 (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) = max f1 (x, y ∗ , z ∗ ),
x∈Dm
f2 (x , y , z ) = max f2 (x∗ , y, z ∗ ),
∗ ∗ ∗
y∈Dn
m X
X n X
s m X
X s
aijk x∗i yj∗ zk∗ ≥ aijk x∗i yj zk∗ , ∀y ∈ Dn , (3.3)
i=1 j=1 k=1 i=1 k=1
m X
X n X
s m X
X n
aijk x∗i yj∗ zk∗ ≥ aijk x∗i yj∗ zk , ∀z ∈ Ds . (3.4)
i=1 j=1 k=1 i=1 j=1
m X
X s
∗ ∗ ∗
f2 (x , y , z ) ≥ bijk x∗i zk∗ , j = 1, . . . , n,
i=1 k=1
Xm X n
f3 (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) ≥ cijk x∗i yj∗ , k = 1, . . . , s.
i=1 j=1
n
" m n s # m X
n X
s
X XXX X
ye bijk x∗i yj∗ zk∗ ≥ bijk x∗i yj zk∗ ,
e=1 i=1 j=1 k=1 i=1 j=1 k=1
m
" m X
n X
s
# m X
n X
s
X X X
ze cijk x∗i yj∗ zk∗ ≥ cijk x∗i yj∗ zk .
e=1 i=1 j=1 k=1 i=1 j=1 k=1
Pm Pn Ps
Taking into account that i=1 xi = j=1 yj = k=1 zk = 1 we have
f1 (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) ≥ f1 (x, y ∗ , z ∗ ), ∀x ∈ Dm ,
f2 (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) ≥ f2 (x∗ , y, z ∗ ), ∀y ∈ Dn ,
f3 (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) ≥ f3 (x∗ , y ∗ , z), ∀z ∈ Ds ,
which shows that (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) is a Nash equilibrium. The proof is complete.
Now we are ready to generalize Mills’s theorem [8] formulated originally
for the bimatrix game of two players for three-person matrix game as follows.
Theorem 3.2. A triple strategy (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ ) is a Nash equilibrium for the
non-zero sum three-person game if and only if there exist scalars (p∗ , q ∗ , t∗ )
such that (x∗ , y ∗ , z ∗ , p∗ , q ∗ , t∗ ) is a solution to the following nonconvex opti-
mization problem:
m X
X n X
s
max F (x, y, z, p, q, t) = (aijk + bijk + cijk )xi yj zk − p − q − t
(x,y,z,p,q,t)
i=1 j=1 k=1
(3.5)
42 Game Theory
subject to:
n X
X s
aijk yj zk ≤ p, i = 1, . . . , m, (3.6)
j=1 k=1
m X
X s
bijk xi zk ≤ q, j = 1, . . . , n, (3.7)
i=1 k=1
m X
X n
cijk xi yj ≤ t, k = 1, . . . , s, (3.8)
i=1 j=1
m
X
xi = 1, xi ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , m,
i=1
n
X
yj = 1, yj ≥ 0, j = 1, . . . , n, (3.9)
j=1
s
X
zk = 1, zk ≥ 0, k = 1, . . . , s.
k=1
m X
X n X
s
f2 (x, y, z) = bijk xi yj zk ≤ q,
i=1 j=1 k=1
3.1 The Curvilinear Search Algorithm for Solving Three-Person Game 43
m X
X n X
s
f3 (x, y, z) = cijk xi yj zk ≤ t.
i=1 j=1 k=1
Hence, we get
m X
X n X
s
F (x, y, z, p, q, t) = (aijk + bijk + cijk )xi yj zk − p − q − t ≤ 0
i=1 j=1 k=1
m X
X s
bijk x̄i z̄k ≤ q̄, j = 1, . . . , n, (3.11)
i=1 k=1
m X
X n
cijk x̄i ȳj ≤ t̄, k = 1, . . . , s. (3.12)
i=1 j=1
Hence, we receive
m X
X n X
s
aijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ p̄,
i=1 j=1 k=1
m X
X n X
s
bijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ q̄,
i=1 j=1 k=1
m X
X n X
s
cijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ t̄.
i=1 j=1 k=1
Consequently,
Pm Pn Ps
Pi=1 Pj=1 Pk=1 aijk x̄i ȳj z̄k = p̄,
m n s
i=1 Pj=1 Pk=1 bijk x̄i ȳj z̄k = q̄,
m
P n s
i=1 j=1 k=1 cijk x̄i ȳj z̄k = t̄.
Since a point (x̄, ȳ, z̄, p̄, q̄, t̄) is feasible, we can write the constraints (3.10)-
(3.12) as follows:
Pm Pn Ps Pn Ps
Pi=1 Pj=1 Pk=1 aijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ Pj=1 P k=1 aijk ȳj z̄k , i = 1, . . . , m,
m n s m s
i=1 Pj=1 Pk=1 bijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ Pi=1 Pk=1 bijk x̄i z̄k , j = 1, . . . , n,
Pm n s m n
i=1 j=1 k=1 cijk x̄i ȳj z̄k ≤ i=1 j=1 cijk x̄i ȳj , k = 1, . . . , s.
Now taking into account the above results, by Theorem 3.1 we conclude
that (x̄, ȳ, z̄) is a Nash equilibrium point which completes the proof.
X = x ∈ Rn |xi ≤ xi ≤ xi , i = 1, ..., n .
where γ is a penalty parameter, x and x - are upper and below bounds. For
original x, y and z variables the constraint is the box [0, 1]; for p, q and t
box constraints are [0, p], [0, q] and [0, t]. Values of p, q and t are chosen
from some intervals. An initial value of a penalty parameter γ is chosen not
too large (something about 1000) and after finding some local minimums
we increase it for searching another local minimum.
The proposed algorithm starts from some initial point x1 ∈ X. At each
k−th iteration the algorithm performs randomly “drop” of two auxiliary
points x̃1 and x̃2 and generating a curve (parabola) which passes through
all three points xk , x̃1 and x̃2 . Then we solve one-dimensional minimization
problem along this curve. If a solution to this problem is better than xk ,
we use it as a new minimum point, otherwise, we start a new iteration from
the previous point. Details are presented in Algorithm 1:
46 Game Theory
+6x2 y2 z2 − p − q − t → max .
2y1 z1 + 3y1 z2 − y2 z1 − p ≤ 0,
y1 z1 − 2y1 z2 + 4y2 z1 + 3y2 z2 − p ≤ 0,
x1 z1 + 2x1 z2 − x2 z1 − q ≤ 0,
−x1 z2 + 2x2 z1 + x2 z2 − q ≤ 0,
3x1 y1 + x1 y2 − x2 y2 − t ≤ 0,
2x1 y1 − 3x1 y2 + 2x2 y1 + 2x2 y2 − t ≤ 0,
x1 + x2 = 1,
y1 + y2 = 1,
z1 + z2 = 1,
x1 ≥ 0, x2 ≥ 0, y1 ≥ 0, y2 ≥ 0,
z1 ≥ 0, z2 ≥ 0, p ≥ 0, q ≥ 0, t ≥ 0.
F∗ x∗ y∗ z∗ p q t
0 (1; 0) (0; 1) (1; 0) 1 4 9
0 (0; 1) (1; 0) (0; 1) 4 8 7
0 (0.5; 0.5) (0; 1) (1; 0) 1 5 5.5
−1.33 · 10−15 (0.7; 0.3) (0; 1) (1; 0) 1 4.6 6.9
It means that first and second companies must follow their 5-th and 6-th
production strategies while third company applies for its 1-st production
strategy. Companies’s maximum profits were 65, 160 and 53 respectively.
3.2 A Computational Method for Solving N -Person Game 49
Aq = aqi1 i2 ...in , q = 1, 2, . . . , n
i1 = 1, 2, . . . , k1 , . . . , in = 1, 2, . . . , kn ,
Denote by Dp the set
p
X
q
Dp = {u ∈ R | ui = 1, ui ≥ 0, i = 1, . . . , p}, p = k1 , k2 , . . . , kn
i=1
A mixed strategy for player 1 is a vector x1 = (x11 , x12 , . . . , x1k1 ) ∈ Dk1 , where
x1i represents the probability that player 1 uses a strategy i. Similarly,
the mixed strategies for q-th player is xq = (xq1 , xq2 , . . . , xqkq ) ∈ Dkq , q =
1, 2, . . . , n. Their expected payoffs are given by for 1-th person :
k1 X
X k2 kn
X
f1 (x1 , x2 , . . . , xn ) = ... a1i1 i2 ...in x1i1 x2i2 . . . xnin .
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1
k1 X
X k2 kn
X
1 2 n
fq (x , x , . . . , x ) = ... aqi1 i2 ...in x1i1 x2i2 . . . xnin ,
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1
q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
It is clear that
f1 (x̃1 , x̃2 , . . . , x̃n ) = maxx1 ∈Dk1 f1 (x1 , x̃2 , . . . . . . , x̃n ),
··· ··· ··· ···
fq (x̃1 , x̃2 , . . . , x̃n ) = maxxq ∈Dkq fq (x̃1 , x̃2 , . . . , x̃q−1 , xq , x̃q+1 , . . . , x̃n ),
··· ··· ··· ···
fn (x̃ , x̃ , . . . , x̃ ) = maxxn ∈Dkn fn (x̃1 , x̃2 , . . . , x̃n−1 , xn ).
1 2 n
Denote by
kq−1
k1 X
X k2 X kX
q+1 kn
X
... ... aqi1 i2 ...in x1i1 x2i2 . . . xq−1 q+1 n
iq−1 xiq+1 . . . xin ,
i1 =1 i2 =1 iq−1 =1 iq+1 =1 in =1
1 2 q−1 q+1
, ϕiq (x , x , . . . , x ,x , . . . , xn ) = ϕiq (x|xq ), iq = 1, 2, . . . , kq , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
k1 X
X k2 kn
X
fq (x̃) = ... aqi1 i2 ...in x̃1i1 . . . x̃nin ≥
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1
k1 X
k2 kq−1
kq kq+1 kn
X X X X X
≥ ... ... aqi1 i2 ...in x̃1i1 . . . x̃iq−1 xq x̃q+1 . . . x̃nin
q−1 iq iq+1
i1 =1 i2 =1 iq−1 =1 iq =1 iq+1 =1 in =1
q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
In the inequality 3.16, successively choose xqiq = 1, iq = 1, 2, . . . , kq . We
can easily see that fq (x̃) = ϕiq (x̃|x̃q ), for iq = 1, 2, . . . , kq ; q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Sufficiency : Suppose that for a vector x̃ ∈ Dk1 ×Dk2 ×. . .×Dkn , conditions
3.2 A Computational Method for Solving N -Person Game 51
kq k1 kq kn
X X X X
xqiq fq (x̃) ≥ ... ... aqi1 i2 ...in x̃1i1 . . . x̃iq−1 xq x̃q+1 . . . x̃nin ,
q−1 iq iq+1
iq =1 i1 =1 iq =1 in =1
q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Pkq
Taking into account that iq =1 xqiq = 1, q = 1, 2, . . . , n, we have
subject to :
ϕiq (x|xq ) ≤ pq , iq = 1, 2, . . . , kq , (3.18)
fq (x) ≤ pq , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Hence, we get
k1 X
k2 kn n
! n
X X X X
F (x, p) = ... aqi1 i2 ...in x1i1 x2i2 . . . xnin − pq ≤ 0
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1 q=1 q=1
52 Game Theory
for all xq ∈ Dq , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
But with p˜q = fq (x̃), we have F (x̃, p̃) = 0 Hence, the point (x̃, p̃) is a
solution to the problem (3.17)-(3.18).
Sufficiency : Now we have to show reverse, namely, that any solution of
problem (3.17)-(3.18) must be a Nash point. Let (x̄, p̄) be any solution
of problem (3.17)-(3.18). Let x̃ be a Nash point for the game, and set
p̄q = fq (x̄).
We will show that x̄ must be a Nash equilibrium of the game. Since (x̄, p̄)
is a feasible point, we have
Hence, we have
fq (x̄) ≤ p̄q , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
We know that at a Nash equilibrium F (x̃, p̃) = 0. Since (x̄, p̄) is also a
solution, F (x̄, p̄) be equal to zero :
k1 X k2 kn n
! n
X X X X
F (x̄, p̄) = ... aqi1 i2 ...in x̄1 x̄2 . . . x̄n − p̄q = 0 (3.21)
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1 q=1 q=1
Consequently,
fq (x̄) = p̄q , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Since a point (x̄, p̄) feasible, we can write the constraints (3.19) as follows :
k1 X
X k2 kn
X
... aqi1 i2 ...in x̄1i1 x̄2i2 . . . x̄nin ≥
i1 =1 i2 =1 in =1
kq−1
k1 X
X k2 X kX
q+1 kn
X
≥ ... ... aqi1 i2 ...in x̄1i1 x̄2i2 . . . x̄q−1 q+1 n
iq−1 x̄iq+1 . . . x̄in ,
i1 =1 i2 =1 iq−1 =1 iq+1 =1 in =1
for
iq = 1, 2, . . . , kq , q = 1, 2, . . . , n.
Now taking into account the above results, by Theorem 3.3 we conclude
that x̄ is a Nash point which a completes the proof.
3.2 A Computational Method for Solving N -Person Game 53
Solution of this problem is also not unique and consist of several sets,
such as:
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
1. F ∗ = 0, x1 = (0, 1)T , x2 = (0, 1)T , x3 = (t, 1 − t)T , x4 = (1, 0)T ,
p∗1 = 0, p∗2 = 0, p∗3 = 1, and p∗4 = 1 − t, where t ∈ [0, 0.5].
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
2. F ∗ = 0, x1 = (0, 1)T , x2 = (u, 1 − u)T , x3 = (0, 1)T , x4 = (1, 0)T ,
p∗1 = 0, p∗2 = 0, p∗3 = 1, and p∗4 = 1, where u ∈ [0, 1].
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
3. F ∗ = 0, x1 = (0, 1)T , x2 = (0, 1)T , x3 = (v, 1 − v)T , x4 = (0, 1)T ,
p∗1 = 1 − z1∗ , p∗2 = 1, p∗3 = 0, and p∗4 = v, where v ∈ [0.5, 1].
∗ ∗ ∗
Solution (1) and (2) meets in point x1 = (0, 1)T , x2 = (0, 1)T , x3 =
∗
(0, 1)T , x4 = (1, 0)T .
Some single points of Nash equilibrium also are:
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
F∗ x1 x2 x3 x4 p∗1 p∗2 p∗3 p∗4
0 (1, 0) (0, 1) (1, 0) (0, 1) 0 0 1 2
0 (1, 0) (1, 0) (1, 0) (0, 1) 0 0 0 1
Bibliography
[4] Dickhaut, J. and Kaplan, T., A Program for Finding Nash Equilibria,
Mathematica J., pages 87-93, 1991.
[8] Mills, H., Equilibrium Points in Finite Games,J. Soc. Indust. Appl.
Mathemat.,vol.8(2), pages 397-402, 1960.
[12] Nash, John F., Equilibrium points in n-person games, Proc. of the Nat.
Acad. of Sci. USA, vol.36, pages 48-49, 1950.
[17] https://www.dropbox.com/s/137aaahvbniau9q/problem-4-data.txt
[21] Von Neumann, J., Morgenstern, O. (1944) Theory of games and eco-
nomic behavior. Princeton University Press
If factor prices are fixed, i.e, ri = ri0 , i = 1, 2, ..., n then one variable function
C(x, r1 , r2 , ..., rn ) is a called as a short run cost function defined as:
C(x) = C(x, r10 , r20 , ..., rn0 ).
For example, if the productionPfunction is of type
f (y1 , y2 , ..., yn ) = y1α1 y2α2 ...ynαn , ( ni=1 αi 6 1, αi > 0) then the cost func-
tiom C(x) can be easily found as:
" n
# n1 n
Y r0 i
X
C(x) = x · · αi
i=1
αi i=1
1) The performance of the EOQ against other lot-sizing rules: Lot size
refers to the quantity of an item ordered for delivery on a specific date or
manufactured in a single production run. Choi et al. [20] examined the EOQ
versus eight other rules in multi-echelon MRP systems using FORTRAN,
with the EOQ performing in the lower third. Evan L. Porteus [21] has
introduced a model that shows a significant relationship between quality
and lot size. Melnyk and Piper [22] examined the effects of lead time errors
on different lot sizing rules.
2) Extensions of the EOQ model: EOQ extensions include an applica-
tion to retail cycle stock inventories [23], the addition of cost changes under
a finite or infinite time horizon [24], the inclusion of storage size considera-
tions [17], and the addition of damage costs [16, 25] provided an exhaustive
summary of the research on EOQ models that handle partial backordering,
and some even more current models with partial or full backordering include
those by [18, 26, 27] and [28].
3) The role of the EOQ in logistics: Research that addressed the use
of EOQ models in transportation and logistics first appeared in the 1980s.
Eppen [29] was the first to discuss the ”impact of inventories” on locations
by exploiting risk pooling effects. Tanchoco et al. [30] considered the im-
pact of material handling and the transportation of unit loads on lot sizing.
Ng et al. [31] studied a type of EOQ problem where the (maximum) ware-
house capacity is a decision variable. Furthermore, they assumed that the
warehouse cost dominates all the other inventory holding costs. Keskin et
al. [32] study generalized vendor selection models aimed at optimizing the
total logistical costs including not only the vendor-specific fixed manage-
ment and purchasing costs considered in traditional models, but also the
transportation, inventory replenishment, and holding costs.
In their models, the authors mainly used convex optimization as a math-
ematical tool. However, dynamic models for EOQ have been less considered.
To fulfill this gape, we formulate in this paper EOQ model as a calculus
of variations. The new problem is a simple optimal control which can be
solved by Euler-Lagrange equation as optimality conditions. In particular,
we obtain the well-known EOQ formula [12].
δF (q, q 0 , t) d δF (q.q 0 , t)
− =0 (4.7)
δq dt δq 0
T 3 2T 3 2T 3
Hence, we have c1 = 2−T and c2 = T −2
, consequently, q0 = T −2
.
Then optimal solution is
T3 2T 3
q ∗ (t) = t3 + t+
2−T T −2
In practice, usually type of order quantity function is given. For instance,
q(T ) = bT + d, and holding cost per unit is constant ch . Then total cost
minimum problem is:
RT
minT C = Dc + (bt + d)ch dt
q0
0
q(0) = d = q00
q(t) = bT + d = 0,
or equivalently,
Dc q0 ch T
TC = − + q0 ch T.
q0 2
Taking derivative of T C, we have
dT C Dc ch T
= 2 − + qch T = 0.
dq0 q0 2
Now we obtain
Dc ch T
− .
q02 2
We find optimal order quantity q0 as
r
2Dc
q0 = .
ch T
If we take T =1, then we have well known economic order quantity formula
(EOQ) in the literature [12].
r
2Dc
q0 = .
ch
Bibliography
[7] M.Mahmud Khan, Disha Ali, Zohra Ferdousy and Abdullah Ali- Ma-
mun, A Cost-Minimization Approach to PlanningJ The Geograph-
ical Distribution of Health Facilites, Oxford Journals, Medicine,
Health Policy and Planning, Volume 16, Issue 3, pp.264-272.
[11] C.Rose and R.Yates, Minimizing The Average Cost of Paging Under
Delay Constraints, Wireless Networks1 (1995) 211-219.
[12] Drake, M.J. and Marley, K.A. (2014) A Century of the EOQ.
In: Tsan-Ming, C., Ed., Handbook of EOQ Inventory problems,
Springer, New York, 3-22.
[14] Huang, W., Kulkarni, V.G. and Swaminathan, J.M. (2003) Optimal
EOQ for Announced Price Increases in Infinite Horizon. Operations
Research, 51, 336-339.
[15] Khan, M., Jaber, M.Y., Guiffrida, A.L. and Zolfaghari, S. (2011) A
Review of the Extensions of a Modified EOQ Model for Imperfect
Quality Items. International Journal of Production Economics, 132,
1-12.
[18] Zhang, R.-Q., Kaku, I. and Xiao, Y.-Y. (2011) Deterministic EOQ
with Partial Backordering and Correlated Demand Caused by Cross-
Selling. European Journal of Operational Research, 210, 537-551.
[19] Brill, P.H. and Chaouch, B.A. (1995) An EOQ Model with Random
Variations in Demand. Management Science, 41, 937-936.
[20] Choi, H., Malstrom, E.M. and Classen, R.J. (1984) Computer Simu-
lation of Lot-Sizing Algorithms in Three-Stage Multi-Echelon Inven-
tory Systems. Journal of Operations Management, 4, 259-277.
[21] Evan, L.P. (1986) Optimal Lot Sizing, Process Quality Improvement
and Setup Cost Reduction. Operations Research, 34, 137-144.
[22] Melnyk, S.A. and Piper, C.J. (1985) Leadtime Errors in MRP: The
Lot-Sizing Effect. International Journal, 23, 253-264
68 BIBLIOGRAPHY
We can find n as
V0 · i
ln 1 −
a
n=
1
ln
1+i
for given ai and V0 and compute i from the equation:
n
X ak
V0 = , ak > 0 (5.3)
k=1
(1 + i)k
lim f (i) = 0.
i→∞
F (im )
im+1 = im − , m = 0, 1, . . .
F 0 (im )
lim im = i∗ .
m→∞
subject to
n
X ak
= V0 ,
k=1
(1 + i)k
where ψ(i, n) is a risk function.
For ak = a, k = 1, 2, . . . , problem (5.4) can be reduced to one dimensional
minimization problem.
ln 1 − N PaV ·i
n= 1
ln 1+i
72 Investment Model
For example, if
ψ(i, n) = (i − i0 )2 + (n − n0 )2
then the problem is a one dimensional global minimization problem
!2
V0 ·i
ln 1 −
f (i) = (i − i0 )2 + 1
a
− n0 → min (5.6)
ln 1+i iA ≤i≤iB
In general, problem
min f (i)
iA ≤i≤iB
∂Φ(i, n) i − i0 ϕ(n)
a. = · ⇒
∂i n − n0 (1 + i)n
ϕ(n) 1+i 1 + i0
Φ(i, n) = −
(n − n0 )(1 + i)n−1 2 − n 1 − n
5.1 The Basic Valuation Model 73
a
The condition > i has an efficient condition of financial investment.
V0
Solutions are found for different data in the following table.
Inputs Solutions
i0 n0 i∗ n∗
0.04 5 0.0412 4.8806
0.06 10 0.0593 7.1982
0.08 15 0.0819 12.5661
0.1 20 0.0984 16.0002
0.12 25 0.1209 18.4395
0.14 5 0.1387 6.3412
0.16 10 0.1621 8.1497
0.18 15 0.1846 13.2106
0.2 20 0.2113 17,4974
0.22 25 0.2351 19.1312
74 Investment Model
min J(u), U ⊂ H,
u∈U (5.27)
J(u) ∈ C 1 (H)
∂H(Ψk , xk , uk , t) ∂H(Ψk , xk , uk , t)
˙ k
J(u ) = − ,− ,
∂ur ∂us
where H(Ψk , xk , uk , t) is computed by (5.24).
˙ k ∂H ∂H
min hJ(u ), ui = − ur − us .
u∈U ∂ur ∂us
Let ūk = (ūkr , ūks ) be a solution of the above problem, i.e.:
˙ k ), u¯k i = minhJ(u
hJ(u ˙ k ), ui, t ∈ [0, T ].
u∈U
5.2 Optimal Control Problem in Financial Modeling 77
uk (α) = uk + α(ūk − uk ), 0 ≤ α ≤ 1.
uk (αk ) : min J(uk (α)) = J(uk (αk )).
0≤α≤1
From this we can see that the solution we found is f ∗ = 2.12754 > 2.04,
which is better than the previous solutions proposed by Chen and Sardar.
Bibliography
[1] Bredies, K., Lorenz, D. A. and Maass P., (2007), A generalized con-
ditional gradient method and its connection to an iterative shrinkage
method, Computational Optimization and Applications, Volume 42,
Issue 2, pp 173-193
[4] Davis, B. E., Investment and Rate of Return for the Regulated Firm,
The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, Volume 1,
No. 2, 245-270, 1970.
[7] Krouse, C. G., Lee, W. Y., Optimal equity financing of the corporation,
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Voulme 8, 539-563,
1973.
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nance, and the theory of investment, American Economic Review, Vol-
ume 48, No.3 :261-297, 1958.
80 BIBLIOGRAPHY
[10] Modigliani, F. and Miller, M. H., Corporation income taxes and the
cost of capital, American Economic Review, Volume 53, No.3 :433-443,
1963.
[15] Sethi, P.S., Optimal equity financing model of Krouse and Lee: correc-
tions and extensions, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Volume 13, 487-505, 1978.
1. Exponential model
One of the models for population growth is based on the assumption
that the population grows at a rate proportional to the number of
6.1 Application of Stochastic Differential Equations in Population growth83
2. Logistic model
A population often increases exponentially in its early stages but levels
off eventually and approaches its carrying capacity because of limited
resources. One of the first to model this limitation was the logistic
growth model (
dY Y
dt
= rY (1 − M ),
(6.3)
Y (0) = Y0
where M is the carrying capacity or the maximum number of popu-
lation for a given period.
By solving the initial value problem we get
M Y0
Y (t) = . (6.4)
Y0 + (M − Y0 )e−rt
(ii) [Normal increment] For any 0 ≤ s ≤ t the increment W (t) − W (s) has
the normally distribution with mean 0 and variance t − s.
84 Population Model
Simulation results
We applied the deterministic and stochastic models to the Mongolian popu-
lation growth. In recent years, Mongolian population has grown rapidly and
reached 3.1 million people in 2016. In our work, we estimated the growth
rate using statistical data from 2000 to 2016 obtained by the National Sta-
tistical Office of Mongolia. According to the least square estimation, the
average population growth rate was 1.59 during that periods. We use
shown on the graphs and Table 6.1. The graphs show that stochastic models
are more suitable for prediction of the population.
(
2 0 √ )
γ1 + m 1 x − c 1 u + J (ρ
1 11 1 u 1 − x−
√ 1
r1 J1 = umax
θ2 σ2
00
−ρ21 u2 (x, y) x − δ1 (2x − 1)) + 12 1 J1
1 (t)≥0
(
2 0 √ ) (7.2)
γ 2 + m 2 x − c u
2 2 + J (ρ
2 22 2u 1 − y−
r2 J2 = max √
θ2 σ2
00
u2 (t)≥0 −ρ12 u1 y − δ2 (2y − 1)) + 22 2 J2
0 0
where J1 , J2 and u∗1 , u∗2 denote the competitors advertising policies in (7.2),
respectively. We obtain the optimal feedback advertising decisions
√ √
0 0
u∗ (x) = J1 ρ11 1−x J1 ρ11 y
1 2c√
= 2c1
0
1
J2 ρ22 1−y
0 √
J2 ρ22 x
(7.3)
u∗ (x) = =
2 2c2 2c2
If we search for solutions of system (7.5), the long run equilibrium market
share (x̄, ȳ) is obtained by taking the limits as t → ∞ and are given by
x̄(t) = b11b+b
11
21
(7.6)
ȳ(t) = b22b+b
22
12
.
Computational results
The equation has two complex solutions. One negative and one positive.
One positive solution is β¯1 = 2.2016 and β¯2 = 0.911. Therefore, the market
equilibrium levels are b11 = 0.1772, b21 = 0.0763, b22 = 0.0897, and b12 =
0.1801.
The large insurance company occupies 69.9% of the market equilibrium,
and a small insurance company has been stabilized at 33.3% percent of the
market equilibrium. Optimal advertising spending of the large insurance
company is
√ √
∗ β¯1 ρ11 1 − x 2.0216 · 2.71 1 − 0.699
u1 (x) = = = 0.027.
2c1 2 · 56.532
The optimal advertising spending of the small insurance company is
√ √
β¯2 ρ22 1 − y 0.911 · 2.0426 1 − 0.3325
u∗2 (y) = = = 0.019.
2c2 2 · 39.789
96 Optimization Applications in Finance
dx(t) ρ2 β 2
= λdt + σdW (t). (7.13)
x(t) 2
Now it is worth to mention well-known [21].
Lemma 7.1. [21] Let f (t, x) be a function for which the partial derivatives
ft (t, x), fx (t, x) and fxx (t, x) are defined and continuous. Then, for every
T > 0, with the Ito process x(t) replacing the Brownian motion W (t), we
have
1
df (t, W (t)) = ft (t, W (t))dt + fx (t, W (t))dW (t) + fxx (t, W (t))dW (t)dW (t)
2
A rigorous proof of this lemma can be found in [20].
Now we rewrite equation (7.13) as
dx(t) ρ2 β 2
= dln(x(t)) = λdt + σdW (t).
x(t) 2
98 Optimization Applications in Finance
ρ2 β 2
= l(1 − Φ(h1 )) − e−rθ xe 2
λ
(1 − Φ(h2 )),
where
ρ2 β 2 σ2 l
2
λθ − ln e−rθ
− 2 x
h1 = √ ,
σ θ
2 2
ρ β σ2 l
2
λ + 2
θ − ln e−rθ x
h2 = √ ,
σ θ
Z∞
1 1 2
Φ(h1 ) = √ e− 2 y dy,
2π
0
Z∞ √ √
1 1
θ)2
Φ(h2 ) = √ e− 2 (y+σ d(y + σ θ).
2π
0
dI = dxC + dCx.
Computational results
Household information: Household income is $1500 per month. It spends
$400 on mortgage and $450 on household expenses. Growth of annual aver-
age income is 10 percent. The household requests loan of $8000 with 2 year
maturity of loan. Now our model should decide whether the bank customer
is eligible for loan or not.
The bank criteria: The bank gives a loan when RI < 0.4 and wC = 0.7,
β = 0.16, r = 0.2, wE = σ. Now we need to do the following computations:
$400 + $450
wE = = 0.57,
$1500
q
1 − 1 − 0.162 (1−0.57)·0.7
0.2
λ= 2
= 15,
0.1 · 0.16 · 0.5
wI = 1 − wE = 1 − 0.57 = 0.43,
(1 + 0.2 )24 − 1
12
K = 0.2 · 0.43 · $1500 = $12673,
12
(1 + 0.2
12
)24
2 2
0.1 ·0.16 0.572 $8000
2
15 − 2
· 2 − ln e−0.2·2 ·$12673
h1 = √ = −0.324
0.57 2
2 2
0.1 ·0.16 0.572 $8000
2
15 + 2
· 2 − ln e−0.2·2 ·$12673
h2 = √ = 0.482,
0.57 2
Φ(h1 ) = Φ(−0.324) = 0.37,
Φ(h2 ) = Φ(0.482) = 0.69,
R $8000 h 0.12 ·0.162
i
= (1 − 0.37) − e−0.2·2 e 2 15 (1 − 0.69) = 0.26.
I $12673
R
Since I
= 0.26 < 0.4 then we conclude that the bank can afford credit.
7.3 Optimization Problem of Foreign Reserves 101
and what fraction to invest in the riskless and risky portfolio. Let’s assume
that F (t, ct ) is the period utility function for consumption at time t, and
Φ(T, XT ) is the boundary condition. Then the optimization problem for
the investor is "Z #
T
max F (t, ct )dt + Φ(T, XT ) , (7.15)
u0 ,u1 ,c 0
1. The investor can invest money in the bank at the deterministic short
rate of interest r, i.e, the investor has access to the risk-free asset B
with
dB(t) = rB(t)dt. (7.16)
2. The investor can invest in a risky asset with price process S, where
we assume that the S-dynamics are given by a standard Black-Scholes
model
dS(t) = αS(t)dt + σS(t)dW, (7.17)
here α: drift function, σ: diffusion coefficient, W (t): standard Brow-
nian motion.
The portfolio n1 , n2 remains unchanged over the time interval [t, t + ∆t[,
and assuming the consumption pattern is constant in interval [t, t + ∆t) in
the same way as for portfolio selection, the budget equation becomes
Let
n1 (t)B(t) n2 (t)S(t)
u0 (t) = , u1 (t) = (7.20)
X(t) X(t)
the share of wealth in assets, with
hZ T i
max
0 1
E F (t, ct )dt + Φ(T, XT )
u ,u ,c 0
dX(t) = X(t)[u (t)r+u1 (t)α]dt − c(t)dt + u1 (t)σX(t)dW (t)
0
(7.23)
X0 =x0
c(t) ≥0, ∀t ≥ 0
u (t) + u1 (t) =1, ∀t ≥ 0,
0
hZ T i
maxE e−δt Rtγ dt
w,R 0
dX(t) = w(t)αX(t)dt−βR(t)dt + w(t)σX(t)dW (t)
(7.24)
X0 =x0
R(t) ≥0, ∀t ≥ 0
w(t) =1, ∀t ≥ 0,
where the objective function does not contain X(t), shown in (7.23) and
assumption (4).
The Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation has the following form.
( )
2
∂V γ ∂V ∂V 1 ∂ X
+ sup e−δt Rt + wαX − βR + w2 σ 2 X 2 = 0 (7.25)
∂t R≥0,w∈R ∂X ∂X 2 ∂X 2
104 Optimization Applications in Finance
αVX
w=− . (7.27)
Xσ 2 VXX
Taking into account assumption (2), we have
V (t, X) = e−δt hX γ .
Φ(T, XT ) = 0.
∂V
= e−δt hX γ − σe−δt hX γ , (7.28)
∂t
∂V
= γe−δt hX γ−1 , (7.29)
∂X
∂ 2V
2
= γ(γ − 1)e−δt hX γ−2 . (7.30)
∂X
Substituting (7.29) into (7.26), (7.30) and (7.27), we get
α
w∗ (t, X) = . (7.32)
(1 − γ)σ 2
If we substitute the expressions (7.28) and (7.31) - (7.32) into the HJB
equation, we obtain:
1 α2 γ
A= −δ
2 (1 − γ)σ 2
B = (1 − γ)β −γ/(1−γ) .
7.3 Optimization Problem of Foreign Reserves 105
dX(t) R(t)
= w(t)αdt − β dt + w(t)σdW (t).
X(t) X(t)
dX(t) R(t)
= wα − β + u(t).
X(t) X(t)
The first-order autocorrelation is:
Corollary 2.τ Let R(t) be some foreign reserves with an exponential growth
R(t) = R(0)e γ t . If objective function is
"Z #
T
max E e−δt Rtγ dt .
w,R 0
(αw)w
w∗ = .
(1 − γ)(σw)2
Computational results
We made an estimation of the econometric model based on observations
of 132 months for the period from 2006 to 2016 years. The first-order
autocorrelation estimation gives the following values:
dX(t) R(t)
= 0.182 − 0.072 · + 0.957 · AR(1), R2 = 0.908, DW = 1.46
X(t) X(t)
reserves is
τ /γ = 0.066.
Also, expected exchange rate level is
E(X) = 1465.715.
wα = 0.182,
β = 0.072,
ρ = 0.957.
If we compute γ and τ then
∗ 1 1
E(R ) = αwγ − τ E(X) =
β(1 − γ) 2
1465.715 1
= · · 0.182 · 0.8333 − 0.055 ≈ 2544.
0.072 · (1 − 0.8333) 2
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