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Planting the Seed: The Case for Good Growing Conditions: The Global
Agribusiness Investing Demand and Supply Imbalance
The agribusiness sector presents investment opportunities far Global population growth—estimated at 9 billion people by
beyond farming—from crop and livestock production, through 2050—will test the limits of current food production capabilities,
processing, packaging, storage and distribution, to marketing already at a breaking point in markets such as China that depend
branded-food products. on food imports. Nearly all of this growth is expected in develop-
ing countries, where food demand will be greater in both quan-
The scale and diversity of the agribusiness opportunity in emerg- tity and quality due to improvements in living standards and in-
ing markets cannot be overstated. “It is difficult to put together comes. Not only is caloric intake per person increasing, but diets
a diversified portfolio that doesn’t touch the agribusiness sector will also continue to shift from predominantly cereals-based to
somehow, as developing countries have a large portion of their protein-based. For example, in China each person consumed an
economies and workforces in the sector,” says Mildred Cal- average of 20kg of meat in 1980 compared with 50kg in 2007.
lear, COO of Small Enterprise Assistance Fund (SEAF), a global Additional protein production will tax existing water supplies and
emerging markets fund manager that has made approximately crop yields, already straining to meet a surge in demand for bio-
40% of its investments in the sector. fuels crops as renewable energy sources.
The drivers for agribusiness investing align very well with emerg- As with nearly all commodities, food prices have risen dramati-
ing market demographic and industrial characteristics: rising and cally during the last decade (See Exhibit 2). Even during the
urbanizing populations with growing consumer classes are not 2008–2009 downturn, food prices held at nearly double 2007
only creating more demand for food, but consumer tastes are levels, and in 2009, the FAO food price index increased 94%.
shifting towards higher quality foods and more protein-intensive According to the International Food Policy Research Institute,
diets. In addition, profound structural inefficiencies—low yields, population pressure alone is expected to drive prices for the
high spoilage and waste, fragmented production and distribu- most important global crops substantially higher by 2050: 62%
tion, and generally poor infrastructure—make for a robust set for rice, 63% for maize, 72% for soybeans and 34% for wheat.
of opportunities from production to food retailing. “The lack of With climate change effects factored in, prices for staples may
big integrated [food and agribusiness companies] in the emerg- rise by as much as 130 to 170% by mid-century.
ing markets creates many opportunities for private equity to in-
vest in a fragmented space with substantial growth potential,” The global supply-demand imbalance is only expected to inten-
observes Richard Gilmore, CEO of the GIC Group, an agribusi- sify, making for attractive economics over the long-term. Ravi
ness investment services firm. The agribusiness sector also of-Sood is Chairman of Feronia Inc, an agribusiness investor which
recently completed the purchase of a 76% ownership stake in
fers abundant portfolio diversification options across geography,
commodity cycles, and global economic conditions. Unilever’s 100,000 hectare palm oil plantation in the Democratic
Republic of the Congo. Sood summarizes the long-term case for
Exhibit 1: Agriculture Sector, Value Added as a % of GDP (2008)
the agribusiness sector, noting, “Agriculture provides an econom-
35% ically incentivized commodity: food. People will continue to eat.”
31%
30%
Improving the Yields: Strategies to Take
25%
Advantage of Inefficiencies
Agriculture / GDP, %
21%
20% 18%
14% Agribusiness investments span three often distinct strategies:
15%
11% production, value chain (including infrastructure and logistics),
10%
7%
and inputs/technology. Many investors also find vertically-inte-
grated or branded food companies attractive investments in or-
5%
der to capture additional margin and to assume greater control
0% over many of the risks specific to the sector.
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Guest Commentary
Exhibit 2: FAO Food Price Index the fund buys underperforming property where it adds value by
220 land conversion or efficiency improvement,” he adds.
Food Price Index (2002-2004=100)
China represents one market with abundant value chain opportu- zambique, which combines production, processing and transpor-
nities around food processing and distribution. In 2009, interest tation assets along a fertile growing region. The Transfarm Africa
in China’s dairy sector in particular surged, due in part to attrac- Fund, currently in formation and sponsored by the Hewlett Foun-
tive valuations given recent controversies around infant formula dation, has committed to investing up to US$5 million in com-
manufacturing. Deals have included Sequoia Capital’s US$63 mil- mercial agriculture projects along the Beira Corridor.
lion investment for a 10% stake in Feihe Dairy, and The Car-
lyle Group’s investment in Guangdong Yashili Group, one of Inputs/Technology: Another dimension of the agribusiness op-
China’s largest infant formula manufacturers. In June 2009, portunity is in inputs and services, including technology related to
SAIF Partners injected US$15 million into Yayi International, a yield improvements. Some examples of the latter include Rabo
Chinese goat milk formula production and retail brand. In late India Agribusiness Fund’s March 2009 investment in Sri Biotech
2008, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. invested in Ma Anshan Laboratories India, a Hyderabad-based producer of pesticides and
Modern Farming Company for US$150 million in large scale herbicides. In July 2008, Origo-Sino-India PLC alongside Unilever
dairy operations. In the summer of 2009, Chinese state-owned Technology Ventures invested US$12 million in Halosource, a wa-
firm Cofco and private equity firm Hopu Investment Manage- ter purification technology company based in India. Other inves-
ment Co. jointly acquired a 20% stake in market leader Meng- tors see opportunities in seed production and other inputs, such
niu Dairy for roughly US$780 million. as chemicals, fertilizers, feed and fodder. Examples include Mor-
gan Stanley Private Equity Asia’s US$39 million investment in Bio-
SEAF is among the firms that recognize the opportunities in tor Industries, an agro-chemicals manufacturer in India, and The
agriculture-related logistics. “Great investment opportunities Carlyle Group’s investment of US$15 million in China Agritech, an
are available in transportation and preventing distribution losses, organic fertilizer manufacturer and distributor. Over time, inves-
prevalent in the larger markets like India,” SEAF’s Callear noted. tors expect additional opportunities could emerge in agribusiness
“You need to invest in transport that can handle the frozen prod- services, including breeding and genetics, farming equipment,
uct to get it to market without spoilage. Another investment that leasing, irrigation, satellite farming services, quality testing and
can make a big difference is portable cool storage brought close veterinary services.
to the farms—early refrigeration or temperature controlled stor-
age can extend the shelf life of produce for weeks.” Global in- Beware the Locusts: Sector-Specific Risks
frastructure funds and sovereign wealth funds are looking more
seriously at the logistics and transportation needs of the agribusi- Agribusiness investment comes with a host of sector-specific
ness sector, searching for opportunities to support large scale risks affecting all parts of the value chain. These risks are most
agriculture development. Vertically integrated production regions acute at the production end due to vulnerability to crop diseases
are also being seeded, including the Beira Corridor Project in Mo- and weather, particularly storms and drought. “Monsoons are es-
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