CVL300

ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND IMPACT

ASSESSMENT
Lecture 12:
PREDICTION: SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS
 Social and Cultural Impacts

• need to understand social structure and

functions at various scales.
• CEAA’s definition of the environment did not
include social and cultural components.
• Ontario EAA’s definition of the environment
includes social and cultural components.
• Social impacts are assumed to be “cost of
progress or development” for some.
 Social and Cultural Issues
• Social impacts play an important role in
the Ontario EA.
• Each new project will cause physical and
biological changes as well as social and
economic relations.
• Community can be affected directly and
indirectly by changes in resources.
• Value of social and cultural changes due
to a project may last over a long period of
time.
 Definitions of Social Impacts
• All social and cultural consequences to
human populations of action that alter the
ways people live, work, play, related to
one another, and organize to meet the
needs.
• A change in the distribution of social
benefits or social disbenefits.
• A deviation (change) from a norm (usually
existing social conditions)
 Definitions of Cultural Impacts

• They are changes to norms, values, and

belief which guide individuals, alter their
views of themselves and their society.
Tangible and Intangible Impacts
• Tangible (measurable) social and
economic impacts (e.g. loss of jobs, loss
of homes, number of children attending
school).
• Intangible impacts (e.g. changes in
community cohesion, changes in social
stigma, changes in community character).
• Evaluate social/economic impacts versus
physical/natural impacts (i.e. apples and
oranges).
Difficulties of Projecting Impacts
• Social change itself is rich and continuing.
• Plurality of actors and interests, social
groups, and communities in our society.
• Complex and constantly changing due to
new technologies, market changes, and
new communication means.
 Project Social Impacts
• Social environment has great uncertainty
and impacts cannot be determined via
scientific techniques.
 Theories of Humans
• Humans are highly adaptive and tolerant to
change.
• Humans are highly irregular/varied/different
in their responses to change.
• Human social system is very dynamic.
• Humans are inconsistent to risk.
 Social Impact Analysis (SIA)
• A mini-EA, but for people (or an EA within
an EA).
• SIA are typically done by
- Technical impact assessment model
(1980’s to 1990’s)
- Community process models (1990’s to
now)
 Technical impact assessment models
• These models deal with those social
changes that can be quantified.
• The method framework includes:
- profiling;
- projecting;
- assessing; and
- evaluating.
• It may not adequately reflect the
“perceived” social change.
 Community process models
• Determination of social impacts by the
perception of those affected (ask those
affected).
• Use interactive approaches which involve
identifying/clarifying values of the
community affected
 Community process models
Method Framework
• Scoping
• Profiling
• Projecting
• Assessing
• Evaluating
• Mitigating
• Monitoring
 Scoping
• The purpose is to pre-assess issues
concerns and focus on intelligent
gathering.
• This involves consulting with relevant
interests, discussion of the proposed
project and boundaries, and screening of
issues and concerns.
• The results are a preliminary list of issues
and concerns, study area boundaries, and
a preliminary selection of impact factors.
 Profiling
• The purpose is to establish baseline social
conditions.
• It involves the selection of study area
boundaries, selection of social factors, and
identification of causal factors.
• The results are a baseline description of
potentially affected area and a preliminary
list of impacts and concerns.
•
 Projections
• The purpose is to determine changes
likely to occur after the project is
implemented.
• It involves the detection of true impacts
from the project, identification of who will
be affected in what way and how long.
• The results are a list of disruption of
probable or expected impacts. A variety of
projection methods are available
 Projection Methods
• Trend extrapolation
• Local expert opinion
• Structured expert opinion (Delphi
techniques)
• Survey methods (most frequently used)
• Comparative analysis
 Assessing
• The purpose is to determine relative
importance of impacts.
• It involves the determination of current
social conditions, accounting for preferred
future, and selection of criteria for
significance.
• The result is ranking of impacts.
 Evaluating
• The purpose is to determine the net costs
and benefits and impact management, and
focus on overall acceptability.
• It involves the identification of differences
among alternatives, clarification of
importance and differences, and
identification of tradeoffs.
• The result is ranking and weighting of
alternatives.
 Mitigating
• The purpose is to less the project effect by
mitigation, compensation, contingency
measures, and control measures.
• It involves the review of unavoidable
adverse impacts, identification of
appropriate impact management
measures, and senstivitiy analysis of
possible measures.
• The result is a package of measures for
reducing impacts.
 Monitoring
• The purpose is to determine how good
were the projections (in terms of impacts,
the affected groups, etc.) and the
feedback from stakeholders.
• It involves the measurement of actual
impacts.
• The results are feedback measurements
for proponent and public, and adjustment
to operating procedures of the projects.