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Abstract: The significant computational efforts re- if required, to install corrective maintenance measures.
quired to compute risk-based inspection plans founded In most practical applications, inspection is the most rel-
on the Bayesian decision theory has hindered their appli- evant and effective means of deterioration control.
cation in the past. In this article, a computationally effi- During the last 15–20 years, reliability-based and risk-
cient method for the calculation of risk-based inspection based approaches have been developed for the plan-
(RBI) plans is presented, which overcomes the problem ning of inspections, for example, in Thoft-Christensen
through the use of a generic approach. After an introduc- and Sørensen (1987), Fujita et al. (1989), Madsen et al.
tion in RBI planning, focus is set on the computational (1989), Sørensen et al. (1991), and Moan et al. (2000).
aspects of the methodology. The derivation of inspection These approaches are based on the Bayesian decision
plans through interpolation in databases with predefined theory to minimize overall service life costs including di-
generic inspection plans is demonstrated and the accuracy rect and implied costs of failures, repairs, and inspections.
of the methodology is investigated. Finally, an overview is In contrast to earlier approaches introduced in Yang and
given on some recent applications of the generic approach Trapp (1974, 1975), they are based on structural reliabil-
in practice, including the implementation in efficient soft- ity analysis (SRA) for the evaluation of the probabilities
ware tools. and are thus much more flexible in regard to the applied
limit state functions (LSFs) describing the deterioration
and the inspection performance. However, the applica-
1 INTRODUCTION tion of risk-based inspection (RBI) planning has been
limited in the past due to the significant numerical effort
Engineering systems are ideally designed to ensure an required by these methods. This motivated the devel-
economically efficient operation throughout the antici- opment of a generic approach to RBI, as first proposed
pated service life in compliance with given requirements in Faber et al. (2000). A comprehensive documentation
and acceptance criteria. Such acceptance criteria are typ- of the approach is provided in Straub (2004). Due to
ically related to the safety of personnel and risk to the en- its computational efficiency, the generic approach not
vironment. Deterioration processes such as fatigue crack only allows for a wider application of RBI in practice,
growth and corrosion will always be present to some de- but also provides the means for inspection planning of
gree, and depending on the adapted design philosophy in systems, see Straub and Faber (2005a), and has recently
terms of degradation allowance and protective measures, been implemented by the industry as reported in Faber
the deterioration processes may reduce the performance et al. (2005), Chakrabarti et al. (2005), and Goyet et al.
of the system beyond what is acceptable. To ensure that (2004).
the given acceptance criteria are fulfilled throughout the After a summary of the general RBI methodology,
service life of the engineering systems it may thus be nec- the generic approach to RBI is introduced following
essary to control the development of deterioration and, Straub (2004). The article thereafter concentrates on
the computational aspects of the methodology, both in
∗ Towhom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: straub@ibk. the derivation of the generic inspection plans and the
baug.ethz.ch. calculation of specific inspection plans for individual
C 2006 Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering. Published by Blackwell Publishing, 350 Main Street, Malden, MA 02148, USA,
and 9600 Garsington Road, Oxford OX4 2DQ, UK.
180 Straub & Faber
structural elements. It is shown how the accuracy of the Raiffa and Schlaifer (1961) or Benjamin and Cornell
calculations can be evaluated and the trade-off between (1970). Based on probabilistic models of both the de-
computational speed and accuracy is discussed. These terioration and the inspection performance, it aims at
aspects are of particular interest because the lack of com- minimizing the total expected cost of an inspection and
putational efficiency has hindered a widespread applica- maintenance plan, E[CT ], which is the sum of the ex-
tion of RBI in the past. Therefore, the article concludes pected costs of failure, inspection, and repair (Equation
with an overview on recent applications of the generic (1)).
approach, which demonstrate its practical relevance.
E [CT ] = E [CF ] + E [CI ] + E [CR ] (1)
The current article is focused on the general RBI
methodology, however, for completeness the proba- The different expected costs are evaluated consider-
bilistic deterioration modeling and inspection perfor- ing the different branches in the decision tree, illustrated
mance modeling underlying the presented examples are in Figure 1. All branches in the decision tree are char-
provided in the Appendix. The example is a typical acterized by their branching probability of occurrence
welded tubular joint in an offshore structure subject to and the associated costs. Note that the failure events are
fatigue, which is modeled by a two-dimensional frac- modeled as terminal events; no reconstruction after the
ture mechanics-based crack growth model (FM model); failure event is taken into account. In principle, it is pos-
therein the stress intensity factors are evaluated using sible to extend the model by including the rebuilding of
the parametric models from Newman and Raju (1981). the element or structure after failure. These so-called re-
newal models are studied in the literature, see, for exam-
ple, Streicher and Rackwitz (2004). Because in general
2 CONTEXT
the service life is assumed to be finite and the reliability
of structural elements is high, detailed modeling of the
The RBI procedures presented in this article must be
behavior after failure will change the final results only
embedded in a general maintenance strategy; in Goyet
slightly, if at all, as can be seen from Kübler and Faber
et al. (2002), where a general strategy for inspection op-
(2002). The applied simplification is thus reasonable, es-
timization is described, they are termed Detailed RBI to
pecially because all the events and actions after failure
emphasize that they form only one step in the total asset
can be included in the expected consequences of failure.
integrity management process. This process comprises a
Each branch in the decision tree represents an in-
general, more qualitative analysis, a detailed analysis for
tersection of different decisions and random outcomes.
the most critical parts of the system, and an implemen-
When several inspections are planned, the total number
tation strategy. This general strategy, which is indispens-
of these branches becomes prohibitive for the full evalu-
able for any practical application, is not the subject of this
ation of the decision tree, because the calculations of the
article. Here it is only pointed out that the methodology
branching probabilities are computationally demanding.
presented in the following addresses only identified de-
Therefore, all published approaches use a simplified de-
terioration and failure modes. The identification of the
cision tree to limit the number of branches that must be
potential failure modes and locations must be performed
computed. As an example, consider the simplified deci-
at an earlier stage during a qualitative risk analysis pro-
sion tree from Straub (2004) shown in Figure 2. The de-
cedure. Especially the problem of so-called gross errors
cision tree is simplified by differentiating only between
must be covered by such procedures. The identified po-
repair and no-repair events after the inspection and by
tential locations of deterioration failures are termed hot
representing the repaired hot spot by a model identi-
spots in this article.
cal to a new hot spot (where the hot spot after repair is
Although the present article concentrates on struc-
stochastically independent of the hot spot before repair).
tures subject to fatigue, the generic approach is equally
The branching probabilities in this decision tree are then
applicable to steel structures subject to corrosion, as de-
given by the probability of failure given no-repair pF and
scribed in Straub (2004).
the probability of repair after the inspections pR . The
probability of repair is evaluated by calculating the prob-
3 RBI PLANNING abilities of the different possible inspection outcomes
(as a function of the considered inspection technique)
Traditionally, RBI is performed for individual hot spots and by relating the repair decision to the outcome by
separately. This section is thus limited to RBI for single means of a decision rule d. Typical decision rules are, for
hot spots; for the inclusion of system effects, the reader example, that every defect indicated by an inspection
is referred to Straub and Faber (2005a). is repaired or that every defect with a measured size s
RBI is based on the preposterior analysis from the larger than some limit sR is repaired. A LSF for the repair
Bayesian decision theory as presented, for example, in event R is then defined by combining the decision rule d
Computational aspects of RBI 181
No detection Survival
& no repair
Failure
Failure No detection
& no repair
Detection Failure
& no repair
Survival
Detection
Survival & no repair
Detection
Detection Failure & repair
& repair
Survival
other repair
options
with the inspection performance model. These calcula- where e is a vector describing the inspection times and
tions are described in detail in previous publications, see, qualities, d is the decision rule on the repair actions, T SL is
for example, Fujita et al. (1989), Faber (2002), or Straub the anticipated service life of the structure given in years,
(2004). cF is the cost of failure, and r is the real rate of interest.
Based on the probabilities and the (monetary) con- The notations pF (e, d, t) and pR (e, d, t) are introduced
sequences related to the individual events, the expected to express that both the cumulative probability of fail-
costs are calculated as net present values following the ure and the cumulative probability of repair at time t are
decision tree in Figure 2. As an example, the expected conditional on no-repair at all inspections; they are thus
cost of failure is given for a particular inspection strategy a function of e and d. The calculation of pF (e, d, t) and
e as pR (e, d, t) for the presented example is described in the
TSL
Appendix. The first additive term in c1 in Equation (2)
c1 represents the cost of failure at time t without a repair,
E [CF (e, d, TSL )] = (1− pR (e, d, t − 1 yr))
t=1 (1 + r )t the second corresponds to the expected cost of failure
c1 = ( pF (e, d, t) − pF (e, d, t − 1yr)) cF + ( pR (e, d, t) over the years following a repair at time t (in the an-
− pR (e, d, t − 1yr)) E [CF (e, d, TSL − t)] ticipated remaining service life period T newSL = T SL − t).
(2) Because of this latter term, Equation (2) is recursive.
Repair Repair
TSL,new = TSL - t
t
T=0 Inspection 1 (e,z,a) Inspection 2 (e,z,a) End of service life TSL
Alternatively, the classical renewal models may be ap- that the time between subsequent inspections is a con-
plied, for example, Streicher and Rackwitz (2004). The stant; the inspection times are then fully described by the
calculation of the expected cost of inspections and re- length of the inspection interval T Insp , respectively the
pairs is in analogy to Equation (2), the interested reader total number of inspections nInsp (for given service life).
is referred to Straub (2004) for details. When e denotes the type of inspection to perform, the
general optimization problem can be rewritten as
3.1 Optimization of inspection strategies min E[CT (e, TInsp , d, TSL )]
e,TInsp ,d
max
An inspection strategy is defined by e and d; the aim of subject to pF (e, TInsp , d, t) ≤ pF , t = 0, . . . ,TSL
RBI is thus the identification of the set of e and d that (5)
yields the minimum expected total cost, that is, Applying the threshold approach, inspections are
planned in the year before the annual probability of fail-
min E [CT (e, d, TSL )]
e,d ure exceeds a threshold pFT , as illustrated in Figure 3.
subject to pF (e, d, t) ≤ pFmax , t = 0, . . . , TSL (3) The obtained inspection intervals increase with time.
This is commonly observed for many deterioration phe-
where pmax
F is the acceptable probability of failure per
nomena and is explained by the decrease in uncer-
year and must be determined in accordance with the
tainty after each inspection, which is accounted for by
relevant code and the preferences of the owner or op-
the Bayesian updating of the probabilities following an
erator of the structure, see Straub and Faber (2005b).
inspection.
pF (e, d, t) is the annual probability of failure (also
For the threshold approach, the optimization problem
known as the failure rate), defined as
is written as
pF (e, d, t) − pF (e, d, t − t)
pF (e, d, t) = (4) min E CT e, pTF , d, TSL
t (1 − pF (e, d, t − t)) e,pF ,d
T
(6)
subject to pFT ≤ pFmax
The decision rule d to apply is often prescribed by the
operator of the structure, otherwise the number of fea- The threshold approach has the advantage that the con-
sible decision rules is in general limited and the identi- straint is formulated directly on the optimization param-
fication of the optimal d is straightforward. The number eter. This facilitates the interpretation of the optimiza-
of possible e on the other hand is very large and thus tion results because it is immediately recognizable if an
prohibitive for the direct evaluation of Equation (3). inspection plan complies with the requirements in terms
For this reason, the threshold approach and the equidis- of the acceptable annual probability of failure pFmax .
tant approach to inspection planning were introduced, The optimization with both the threshold approach
as described in Faber et al. (2000). In the equidistant ap- and the equidistant approach is carried out by evaluat-
proach, the number of possible e is limited by prescribing ing the total expected costs for different values of the
10-5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Year t
Inspection
times:
t
Fig. 3. Determination of the inspection times as a function of the threshold on the annual probability of failure for the hot spot as
described by the probabilistic model in the Appendix.
Computational aspects of RBI 183
Expected cost
4·10-3
3·10-3
2·10-3
1·10-3
0
-2 -3 -4 -5
10 10 10 10 40 30 20 10 0
-1
Threshold ΔpFT [yr ] Inspection intervals [yr]
Fig. 4. Optimization of inspection efforts: Comparing the threshold and the equidistant approach. The cost model is cF = 1,
cInsp = 10−3 , cR = 10−2 , r = 0.05; the deterioration and inspection modeling is provided in the Appendix.
optimization parameters. For the threshold approach, FORM/SORM is indispensable for some of the other
the obtained solution is only an approximation because tasks involved in RBI, such as the calibration of the crack
the threshold is a continuous variable, yet the accuracy growth model to the SN fatigue model as outlined in the
is in general sufficient for any practical purpose. Figure 4 Appendix; additionally it is very useful for verification
shows the optimization using both approaches; it is ob- purposes. For the computation of the inspection plans,
served that the calculated minimal expected costs are however, the use of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is
approximately the same for both approaches. suggested.
(2) MCS is not suited for the calculation of very low 0.5
Thresholds ΔpF :
T
probabilities, but because probabilities of failure
Error probability P (W )
0.4
considered in the inspection planning are typically -5 -1
10 yr
in the range of 10−3 –10−5 per year, the accuracy of 0.3 -4 -1
10 yr
MCS is in general acceptable, as shown below. -3
0.2 10 yr-1
In general, the accuracy of the MCS is determined only
by the number of simulations nMC and the (unknown) 0.1
true probabilities
p; the accuracy is approximately pro- 0
portional to nMC /E[ pMC ] for small p’s and large nMC ’s, 5
10 10
6
10
7 8
10
with E[ pMC ] being the Monte Carlo estimate of the true
Number of simulations nMC
probability. For inspection planning, it is proposed to as-
sess the calculation accuracy through the probability of
Fig. 5. Assessing the accuracy of MCS for inspection
prescribing the inspection in a wrong year, denoted by planning: Probability of predicting the required inspections in
P(W). Following the threshold approach, an inspection the wrong year for the example hot spot from the Appendix.
is planned when the (calculated) annual probability of
failure pF exceeds the threshold pTF ; a failure in the
determination of pF can consequently lead to the in- considered hot spot calculated three times with different
spection being planned in a “wrong” year. As the inspec- starting values for the simulations. On the other hand,
tion times are a main outcome of the procedure, P(W) the evaluated expected costs are net present values, tak-
appears to be a reasonable indicator for the calculation ing into account the real rate of interest. For this reason,
accuracy. Following Straub (2004), P(W) is calculated as future events have less effect on the expected costs than
events in the present; the decrease in calculation accu-
pFT
1 racy is thus in parallel to a decrease in the importance
P (W) ≈
εpF pT −εpF of the calculated probabilities on the final result. Based
F
T
on these considerations, it has been found for past appli-
1 − FpF pF pF , pF /nMC + cations that nMC = 2 × 106 simulations is a reasonable
dpF
FpF pFT pF + εpF , (pF + εpF ) /nMC choice, but clearly such a value will always depend on
(7) the applied thresholds, in accordance with Figure 5. The
where FpF (pF |μ, σ ) is the probability distribution same nMC should be used for all applied thresholds, as
function of the Monte Carlo estimate following a nor- the nMC -simulated realizations of the deterioration pro-
mal distribution with mean μ and standard deviation σ . cess can be reused for assessing the probabilities for all
εpF is the annual increase in pF around the threshold thresholds. The nMC realizations of the deterioration pro-
pTF . εpF has a strong influence, because an error in the cess are thereby temporarily stored and the inspection
determination of the inspection time is more likely when plans are evaluated for different thresholds and inspec-
the increase in the annual failure probability is smaller. tion techniques using the same nMC deterioration histo-
The calculations are more accurate for high-probability ries from the storage. Because the computation time re-
thresholds, due to the dependency of the accuracy on quired for simulating the deterioration process is much
pFT , although this effect is partly compensated by the higher than that required to simulate the inspections,
fact that εpF is larger for thresholds with low probabil- at least for the considered fatigue deterioration model,
ities. Figure 5 gives an example of the calculated P(W) there is little gain in reducing nMC for higher values of
for a typical case. the threshold pFT .
When assessing probabilities using MCS, it is to be
noted that the number of simulations used for calculating
the probabilities decreases with each additional condi- 5 GENERIC APPROACH TO RBI
tioning event, because the considered subset of the event
space becomes smaller with each additional constraint. The core of the generic approach to RBI is the prefab-
As the calculated probabilities pF (e, d, t) and pR (e, d, t) rication of inspection plans for generic hot spots which
are conditional on no-failure in past years and on no- are representative for the particular hot spots in the con-
repair at previous inspections, the number of simulations sidered structures. These prefabricated plans are termed
is decreasing with increasing t and after each considered generic inspection plans. The inspection plans for the in-
inspection. For this reason, the accuracy of the calcula- dividual hot spots in a structure are then obtained from
tions is not constant; this effect is illustrated in Figure 6 the generic inspection plans through an interpolation
which shows the annual probability of failure for the procedure. All hot spots for which the model is valid
Computational aspects of RBI 185
10-3
Δ pF [yr-1]
-4
10
-5
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Years
Fig. 6. Annual probabilities of failure for an inspection plan with threshold pFT = 10−4 yr−1 for the example provided in the
Appendix. Three different calculations (using different seed values for the simulation) each with 2 × 106 simulations at t = 0.
are fully described by the so-called generic parameters. ciple, be performed without specialist knowledge once
These are the input parameters to the model that vary the generic inspection plans are available.
from one hot spot to the next and which are indicators The computational efficiency of the generic approach
of the relevant deterioration mechanism. For the exam- is founded in the replacement of the demanding prob-
ple investigated in this article, the generic parameters ability evaluations by an interpolation of the proba-
are: bilities, which are calculated previously and stored in
the generic database. Whereas the full computation of
(1) the calculated design fatigue life T FL (respectively
inspection plans using simulation takes several hours
the dimensionless fatigue design factor FDF),
on standard computers, the interpolation of inspection
(2) the applied SN curve (which is representative for
plans requires only a few seconds. Although the calcula-
the detail type and the environment),
tions of the generic inspection plans are still demanding,
(3) the wall thickness at the hot spot,
these are performed at a previous stage; the establish-
(4) the number of stress cycles per year,
ment of inspection plans for particular structures from
(5) the uncertainty on the calculated equivalent stress
the generic database on the other hand is very efficient
ranges (which is a function of the accurateness of
and can be integrated in the daily asset integrity man-
the load modeling and the structural modeling),
agement procedures of the owner or operator of the
(6) the shape factor of the Weibull distribution, rep-
structure.
resenting the stress ranges,
The relation between the required inspection times
(7) the inspection type.
and the design fatigue life T FL presented in Figure 7
Because all these parameters are obtained from stan- exemplifies the influence of the generic parameters:
dard fatigue evaluation procedures, the RBI can, in prin- The inspection times are obtained as a function of the
100
Inspection times [yr]
80
etc.
60
2nd
40
1st inspection
20
0
0 50 100 150 200 0 100 200 300 400 500
Design Fatigue Life TFL [yr] Design Fatigue Life TFL [yr]
Fig. 7. Inspection times as a function of the design fatigue life T FL for two different thresholds pFT on the annual probability of
failure, calculated from the models given in the Appendix.
186 Straub & Faber
calculated T FL for different thresholds pTF on the an- characterized by its particular values of the generic pa-
nual probability of failure. Such relationships can be es- rameters, which together with the cost model are stored
tablished for all generic parameters. Note that the results in a database. This database is then combined with the
in Figure 7 are based on particular (fixed) values of all generic database containing the precalculated generic
other (generic) parameters. In general, the inspection inspection plans, that is, the inspection times and the
plans are a function of several generic parameters and probabilities given no-repair at all inspections. Applying
the determination of particular inspection plans thus re- the decision model presented previously (i.e., the deci-
quires the use of multidimensional interpolation; these sion tree in Figure 2, respectively the formulas for the
(computational) aspects are treated in the subsequent expected costs such as Equation (2)) and interpolating
section. the inspection costs as well as the inspection times, in-
The generic inspection plans are calculated for var- spection plans are efficiently obtained for all hot spots
ious thresholds or alternatively for various equidistant in the structure.
inspection intervals, as outlined previously. Each inspec- As indicated in Figure 8, instead of an application to
tion plan consists of the required inspection times and RBI planning, the generic approach is equally suitable
the different probabilities of failure and inspection out- for reliability-based inspection planning, where costs are
comes (respectively repair events), corresponding to the not considered and where the goal is the determination
branches in the decision tree shown in Figure 2. The cost of the required inspection times to comply with given
model (i.e., the cost of failure cF , the cost of inspections risk acceptance criteria, in accordance with Figure 3.
cI , the cost of repair cR as well as the real rate of interest
r) is not included in the generic inspection plans. When
performing inspection planning for a particular hot spot 6 EVALUATION OF THE INSPECTION PLANS
in a structure, the expected costs are calculated for the BY INTERPOLATION
particular cost model representing this hot spot. Because
the evaluation of the expected cost is straightforward The framework for the multidimensional interpolation
given that the probabilities of the different branches in is illustrated in Figure 9 for the case of two generic pa-
the decision tree are known, see Equation (2), this does rameters; for the general case with n generic parameters
not increase the computation time significantly. the interpolation is performed correspondingly in a n-
Figure 8 illustrates the principles of the generic ap- dimensional space.
proach to RBI. In the context of inspection and main- The generic representations shown in Figure 9 are the
tenance planning, the structure is represented in terms values of the generic parameters for which generic in-
of the (previously identified) hot spots. Each hot spot is spection plans are calculated; they are the supporting
as a function t
of the generic pameters
- FDF = ... Decision model
- Member Thickness = ... & interpolation
Inspection effort
...
Generic
Generic Parameter GP2 inspection
e.g. thickness ac plans:
Generic represen-
tations of GP2
specific hot spot
Fig. 9. Illustration of the definitions and the interpolation framework in the generic approach to RBI.
points of the interpolation. For many generic parameters would make it difficult to decide on the required generic
more than two generic representations are required. As representations.
an example consider the design fatigue life T FL . To repre- Using this simple interpolation algorithm, the accu-
sent the nonlinear relation between T FL and inspection racy of the approach is mainly dependent on the choice
times shown in Figure 7, several generic representations of the generic representations. Similar to the choice of
are required. However, because a multidimensional lin- the number of simulations nMC , a balance between accu-
ear interpolation is applied, only the two closest generic racy and computational speed must be identified. Each
representations are taken into account when calculating additional generic representation will increase the num-
the inspection plans for a particular hot spot. ber of required generic inspection plans and thus the
The applied multidimensional linear interpolation is required computation time in establishing the generic
the simplest applicable algorithm. For the interpolation database. The choice must be based on sensitivity analy-
of the expected costs, an additional logarithmic trans- ses as presented in Figure 7, where the inspection plans
formation of the costs is advocated; see Straub (2004) are calculated as a function of varying one parameter at
for details. More sophisticated interpolation methods a time. Figure 10 shows the determination of the generic
are abandoned because of the empirical basis of the representations for the parameter wall thickness ac . It
interpolation. It is believed that the most stable re- compares the inspection times directly evaluated for sev-
sults are achieved by a simple scheme that is thor- eral values of ac with those obtained by an interpolation
oughly tested to assure that enough interpolation points from the chosen generic representations.
(generic representations) are available. Higher order in- Because the final generic database contains several
terpolations result in a less transparent procedure, which generic parameters, which are varied simultaneously, a
Inspection times
80 from the sensitivity
Inspection times [yr]
analysis
60 Generic
representations
(interpolation
40 supporting points)
Interpolated
20 inspection times
0
0 50 100 150
Thickness [mm]
Fig. 10. Determination of the generic representations for the parameter wall thickness a c for the numerical example provided in
the Appendix.
188 Straub & Faber
40
Direct
calculations
35
Generic
30 approach
Inspection times [yr]
25
20
15
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Hot spots
Fig. 11. Comparing inspection plans obtained with the generic approach to directly calculated inspection plans for a
representative set of hot spots. The calculations are performed with the models given in the Appendix and the values of the
generic parameters stated in Table 1.
final verification of the accuracy is required. For this pur- with nMC simulations, and the total number of simula-
pose, inspection plans are calculated for a selection of hot tions is thus much larger for the interpolated inspection
spots directly; these are then compared to the inspec- plans. For small deviations between the results from the
tion plans obtained using the generic approach. Such a directly calculated inspection plans and those derived
comparison is shown in Figure 11. The generic parame- through the generic approach, it is therefore not known
ters corresponding to the different cases are presented whether these are due to the calculation accuracy of the
in Table 1. directly calculated inspection plan or the imprecision of
When comparing with the inspection plans resulting the generic interpolation scheme.
from direct calculations (Figure 11), it must be borne in
mind that these plans also are not exact solutions, but
that they are subject to the scatter arising from the inac- 7 INDUSTRIAL APPLICATION OF THE
curacy of the simulation procedure as discussed earlier. GENERIC APPROACH TO RBI
On the other hand, this scatter is reduced for the in-
spection plans from the generic approach. These plans Several industrial projects have been carried out in the
are based on a set of inspection plans, each determined last 2 years based on the generic approach to RBI. Some
Table 1
Different hot spots for the verification of the generic database
Generic parameters:
(corresponding to the model provided in the Appendix, see Table A1)
of these projects are described in Faber et al. (2005) and fatigue, such models exist, but these can be improved
Chakrabarti et al. (2005), both related to offshore jacket through the evaluation of in-service inspection results.
structures, as well as in Goyet et al. (2004) related to For this reason, it is of major importance that the general
floating production, storage, and offloading units. asset integrity management procedure ensures that in-
Because of the novelty of the approach, in these spection data is systematically stored. This observation is
projects the main stress was laid on the technical as- even more relevant for other deterioration mechanisms,
pects of the generic approach to RBI as well as its docu- such as various corrosion phenomena, for which only
mentation. However, the experiences gained from these very crude probabilistic models have been published so
projects show that the great advantage of the generic ap- far.
proach is that the main focus can be (and must be) put on
the integral asset integrity management procedure; the
“detailed” RBI for the most critical locations (the hot 9 CONCLUSIONS
spots) in the structure then represents only one step in
this general procedure. Because of the computational ef- The article presents an overview of the recently devel-
ficiency of the generic approach, the engineering efforts oped generic approach to RBI with a special focus on
required for the detailed RBI are now balanced with the the computational aspects. The generic approach facili-
importance of this task in the general procedure. tates the automated derivation of inspection plans as a
In past industrial projects, the generic RBI was im- function of the most influential parameters for all hot
plemented through the use of an Excel spreadsheet that spots in the structure. In doing so, it represents a highly
serves both as the generic database and as an interface efficient tool which can be integrated in the general in-
for the calculation of inspection plans for particular hot spection and maintenance activities by the owners and
spots. The generic inspection plans are stored in hidden operators of structures.
worksheets in the spreadsheet; a database scheme for The involved probability calculations make the com-
these inspection plans is proposed in Straub (2004). Vi- putation of inspection plans a demanding task. In
sual Basic for Application is used for the computation of the presented generic approach, these calculations are
the routines that perform the evaluation of the expected preestablished and the results are stored in a database
costs, the interpolation of the inspection plans for the which then forms the basis for the inspection planning
specific hot spots and the presentation of the final re- of specific structures. It is advocated to use crude MCS
sults. Although this software layout is not optimized for for establishing the generic database, whereby the prob-
computational speed, it ensures greatest flexibility for ability calculations can be automated and the operations
both the designer and the user of the database. All the involving man-hours are reduced. The increased compu-
options of Excel are available for the user to illustrate the tational time required by MCS is of minor importance
results and full compatibility with the software applied in this phase and it has been shown that the limitations
for reporting purposes is ensured. If desired, it is further- of MCS are not crucial for this type of application.
more possible to uncover the database and the codes to The generic RBI has been implemented in industrial
the user and in this way provide full transparency. projects. It is emphasized that the computational effi-
ciency of the generic RBI allows for focusing on the en-
tire inspection and maintenance strategy instead of on
the technical aspects of the method. Once the generic
8 OUTLOOK database is established, the RBI can be performed by
engineers who are not necessarily experts in probabilis-
The generic approach, due to its computational effi- tic modeling fatigue crack growth and reliability analysis.
ciency, provides the means to consistently account for This greatly enhances the applicability of the method in
system effects related to the performance of the struc- practice.
ture and the inspections as described in Straub and If there are very few hot spots in a structure with
Faber (2005a). Such additional considerations take into unique characteristics, it may be more efficient to cal-
account the functional and statistical dependencies be- culate inspection plans for the critical hot spots directly.
tween the individual locations of deterioration (the hot However, such a case is rare, as RBI planning is normally
spots). For large structures, it is necessary to address undertaken by operators with large and/or many struc-
these aspects to determine optimal inspection strategies. tures. Furthermore, even when there are only few hot
In addition, future research and development efforts spots to analyze it may be beneficial to apply a generic
should be directed toward the formulation and the im- approach, as this facilitates the study of possible changes
provement of probabilistic deterioration models as well in the input parameters and thus an optimization of mit-
as the models describing inspection performance. For igation actions.
190 Straub & Faber
The LSF describing ductile fatigue failure using the the undamaged condition). Y is the model uncertainty
FM approach is related to the stress intensity factors. The boundary con-
ditions for the solution of Equation (A4) are given by the
gFM (t) = NI + NP − νt (A2) initial crack size as a(N = NI ) = a0 , c(N = NI ) = c0 . The
where v is the stress cycle rate, N I is the number of cycles value of the parameters given in Table A.1 are applied
to crack initiation, and N P is the number of cycles it takes in the examples in this article, if not stated otherwise.
for the crack to grow from the initial crack size to the The value of Se is calculated from the design fatigue
failure size. N I is determined according to Lassen (1997) life T FL by setting all parameter values in the SN model
as equal to their design values and by determining the stress
range for which the fatigue life becomes equal to T FL .
(150 Nmm−2 )m1 The inspection performance is modeled by means of
NI = NI0 (A3)
Sem1 probability of indication (PoI) models. The PoI corre-
where Se is the equivalent stress range, m1 is the slope sponds to the probability of detection (PoD) where ad-
parameter of the SN curve, and NI0 is the number of cy- ditionally the probability of a false error is included, that
cles to initiation at the normalizing mean stress range is, the probability that a defect is indicated where none
equal to 150 Nmm−2 . NI0 is correlated to the crack prop- is present, see also Straub and Faber (2003). The applied
agation parameter CP . PoI model is dependent on the crack depth a and given
N P is calculated by solving a coupled differential equa- as
tion based on Paris’ law (Equation (A4)). This model is PoI (a) = PoD (a) + (1 − PoD (a)) PFI
based on the assumption of a semielliptical crack shape exp (α D + β D ln (a)) (A5)
with crack depth a and length 2c. PoD (a) =
1 + exp (α D + β D ln (a))
da
= C P, a (Ka (Se , a, c, DoB) Y)mFM The parameters of the PoI are given as α D = 0.63, β D =
dN (A4)
dc 1.16, and PFI = 0.138. The event of indication of a crack
= C P, c (Kc (Se , a, c, DoB) Y)mFM with depth a at the inspection is described by a LSF
d N
(Equation (A6)) in accordance with Hong (1997).
N is the number of cycles, CP, a , CP, c , and mFM are (empir-
ical) parameters describing the crack growth. Ka (Se , gI (t) = Z − −1 (PoI (a(t))) (A6)
a, c, DoB) and Kc (Se , a, c, DoB) are the stress in-
tensity factor ranges in the a and c direction and are cal- Z is a standard normal distributed random variable and
culated using the empirical solutions from Newman and −1 (·) is the inverse of the standard normal distribution
Raju (1981) as a function of the equivalent stress range function.
Se and the degree of bending DoB. DoB is the fraction A repair is performed when a defect is indicated and
of the stresses at the hot spot which are due to bending (in measured as being deeper than 1 mm. This is the applied
decision rule d, see Straub (2004) for other possible rules.
The event of repair therefore requires the definition of
6
an additional measurement limit state, defined as
5 SN model
gM (t) = aR − a(t) − εm (A7)
FM model
4
with a R being the repair criterion (here a R = 1 mm)
β(t)
Table A.1
Parameters of the FM model
The probability of failure in the first t years given no planned in the interval [0, t − 1 yr] and ti are the times
repair at previous inspections is calculated from of inspections, as prescribed by the inspection vector e.
The conditional probability of repair after an inspection
pF (e, d, t)
¯ in year t is evaluated accordingly as
nInsp (t−1yr)
pR (e, d, t)
P gFM (t) ≤ 0 ∩ (g I (ti ) > 0 ∪ gM (ti ) > 0) ¯
i=1 nInsp (t−1yr)
=
P (gI (t) ≤ 0 ∩ gM (t) ≤ 0) ∩ (gI (ti ) > 0 ∪ gM (ti ) > 0)
nInsp (t−1yr)
i=1
P (gI (ti ) > 0 ∪ gM (ti ) > 0) =
nInsp (t−1yr)
i=1
P (gI (ti ) > 0 ∪ gM (ti ) > 0)
(A9) i=1
nInsp (t − 1 yr) is the number of inspections that are (A10)