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Shareholding Pattern (%) Management guides market share gain in domestic market with improvement in profitability in Indian
Promoters 36.4 operations.
Institutions 48.3
Non Institutions 15.3 JLR volumes to grow in high single digit over FY18-20E.
JLR has several levers, both cyclical and structural, in the form of (a) favorable FX, as realized hedge rates
improve from 4QFY18, (b) operating leverage, (c) cost savings on modular platform on full rollout of
modular strategy, and (d) low-cost Slovakia plant. The convergence of the multiple factors stated above is
expected to drive performance.
Kushal Rughani
kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com
1|P age
Result Update
Tata Motors Jun 11, 2018
We are confident on strong domestic business turnaround and change in JLR growth fortune s post SUV launches. Key
risks to our assumptions would be a) sharp slowdown in global and Chinese luxury car demand, b) lack of product
acceptability in domestic PV business. We remain positive on Tata Motors owing to continued volume momentum and
impending margin triggers. We expect 13% revenues led by robust volume growth from JLR and strong momentum in
domestic volumes. We estimate strong 150bps margin expansion led by operational efficiencies and strong volumes.
Strong revenues and robust operational numbers would drive 50% PAT cagr over FY18-20E. We have tweaked estimates
for FY19 and FY20 downwards after dismal FY18 numbers. We revise our target price to Rs 4 20 based on recent
performance.
Financial Highlights
Rs cr Q4 FY18 Q4 FY17 yoy Q3 FY18 qoq FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 91279 77217 18.2 74156 23.1 269693 294619 344853 377950
EBITDA 11369 10801 5.3 8544 33.1 33498 33817 41980 49150
EBITDA Margin 12.5 14.0 11.5 12.4 11.5 12.2 13.0
APAT 2115 4296 -50.8 1199 76.4 10249 6304 11530 14733
EPS (Rs) 6.2 12.6 -50.8 3.5 76.4 30.2 18.6 33.9 43.4
P/E 10.4 17.0 9.3 7.3
EV/EBITDA 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.1
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
2|P age
Result Update
Tata Motors Jun 11, 2018
Price Chart
500
450
300
6 May - 2017 Rs 420 Buy Rs 498
250
14 Aug’17 Rs 374 Buy Rs. 498
200
100
50
Rating Definition:
3|P age
Result Update
Tata Motors Jun 11, 2018
Disclosure:
I, Kushal Rughani, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report acc urately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL
has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommend ation(s)
or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or HDFC Securities Ltd. Does not have financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or
more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Repo rt. Further Research Analyst or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have material
conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good
faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty , express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and
opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should
not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such
distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes
without prior written approval of HSL.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as
ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments.
HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving
such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the compa ny(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential
conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments ma de or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation
in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time
to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the pa st twelve months.
HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co -
managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory se rvice in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither H SL nor
Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Resea rch Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage
service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496
5066
Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza, Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com, Phone: (022) 3045 3600
HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF C0 00222657,
SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193
Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before inve sting.
4|P age
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
Company Background
Tata Motors, a Tata Group enterprise is engaged in manufacturing of motor vehicles. The Company is engaged
HDFC Scrip Code TELLTD mainly in the business of automobile products consisting of all types of commercial and passenger vehicles,
BSE Code 500570 including financing of the vehicles sold by the Company. The Company's segments include automotive
NSE Code TATAMOTORS operations and all other operations. The Company's automotive segment operations include all activities relating
Bloomberg TTMT to the development, design, manufacture, assembly and sale of vehicles, including vehicle financing, as well as
CMP - Aug 11 2017 Rs. 374 sale of related parts and accessories. In the automotive segment, the Company manufactures and sells
passenger cars, utility vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and medium and heavy commercial vehicles.
Equity Capital(Rscr) 679
Company has its subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) through which it sells Jaguar and Land Rover cars across
((mn(Rscr)
Face Value (Rs) 2 the world. The Company's all other operations segment mainly includes information technology (IT) services,
Eq Share O/S(crs) 289 and machine tools and factory automation services. The Company operates in over 160 countries across the
Market Cap (Rs crs) 108103 world.
Book Value (Rs) 257
Avg. 52 Wk 8581783 Investment Rationale
Volumes
52 Week High 599
Tata Motors posted cumulative sales volumes of 5.43 lakhs in FY17
52 Week Low 376
Cumulative sales (including exports) of the company for the fiscal was at 542,561 nos., higher by 6% over
Shareholding Pattern (%) 511,705 vehicles, sold last year. Cumulative sales of commercial vehicles in the domestic market for the fiscal
was up by 1% at 385,373 nos. over last year. Passenger vehicles in the domestic market for the fiscal were at
Promoters 34.7
153,151, a growth of 22% compared to 125,946.
Institutions 57.2
Non 8.1 Aims Sales of 2.5 lakhs Passenger Vehicles in domestic market in FY18
Institutions
PCG Risk Tata Motors has set an aggressive passenger vehicle sales target for 2017-18. The company aims to sell 250,000
Rating*
Yellow units of cars and utility vehicles in the year FY18. Tata Motors is hoping the domestic operations will be able to
swing back to profitability by 2018-19. If the company is able to meet the targets, the sales would be the
* Refer Rating explanation
highest in four years. The company had sold 3,71,350 passenger vehicle units in 2012-13. In FY17, Tata Motors
Kushal Rughani had sold 1,72,504 units, up 15% from a year ago, against 1,49,420 units a year ago.
kushal.rughani@hdfcsec.com
1|Page
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
Domestic business recovery underway: TTMT is undertaking various initiatives to increase market share in the PV and CV
segments. To address the product gaps in its PV portfolio, it will launch Nexon UV by Sept-18. Reduction in the number of
suppliers and in time to market, improvement in service quality and expansion of touch points are the steps being undertaken
to increase market share in both segments by 5% over the next two years.
JLR: Rich product mix and lower forex losses to benefit: Management guided that margins would benefit from the positive
impact of new model launches and lower cost structure (higher mix of new models). Higher realised hedge losses along with
high advertising expenditure will add to the burden. Over the medium-term, management is guiding for 8-10% EBIT margin
(implying EBITDA margin of 14-16%) for the medium term.
Near-term outlook:
We expect Q2 JLR volumes to be strong, driven by the launch of the new Discovery and RR Velar.
Tata Motors’ (TTMT) 1QFY18 performance was a miss on account of lower JLR margins (7.9%), led by lower
volumes, higher costs associated with launches and rise in staff costs. Standalone margins also were below
estimates, owing to an inferior product mix and GST transition-related costs.
Management guided that hedging losses could reduce in subsequent quarters. Also, the model mix is likely to
turn favourable with the ramp-up of sales for Discovery and Velar, thereby improving margins. Post
commissioning of the Slovakia plant, capex intensity for JLR is likely to reduce from FY19. This, coupled with an
improvement in operating performance, would improve free cash flows in FY18E and FY19E.
With Tiago and Tigor’s favourable start and new launches scheduled over FY18E, we believe the worst is over
for the PV business. In May, 2017, we had recommended as BUY on stock at Rs 420 and add on dips to Rs 380
with target price of Rs 498. After the report, the stock had reached near to our target levels at around Rs 485.
Now, that after correction from the Rs 480 levels, Stock has reached to our lower band and we maintain faith
and reiterate BUY on the stock with TP of Rs 498. After weak results for the first quarter we cut FY18/FY19
estimates and introduce FY20 estimates. We maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP of Rs 498.
2|Page
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
In FY17, Tata Motors had posted 6% volume growth in domestic market led by strong 22% rise from passenger vehicles volumes while we
expect the growth momentum to accelerate and see ~9% cagr over FY17-20E which would in turn drive profitability in the domestic business
as well. We estimate 12% revenues cagr led by healthy business growth from Domestic market and strong growth momentum from JLR sales
over FY17-20E.
JLR has young product portfolios especially in luxury SUV market. We expect recent launches and new product pipeline from JLR to result in
robust sales growth. Post its current capex cycle, we expect operating leverage to kick-in from FY18. We expect 160bps expansion in operating
margin led by operational efficiency over the same period. We forecast 20% PAT cagr led by strong revenues and operating performance over
FY17-20E.
We recommend BUY on Tata Motors at CMP of Rs 374 and add on dips to Rs 337 with TP of Rs 498. The stock trades at ~8.5x/~7.2x FY19E/20E
EPS. Our SOTP-based valuation comes to Rs 498 (assigning 3.9x FY20E EV/EBITDA to; implied ~9.5x FY20E consol EPS). We are fairly
confident on strong domestic business turnaround and change in JLR growth fortune post SUV launches. Key risks to our assumptions would
be a) sharp slowdown in global and Chinese luxury car demand, b) lack of product acceptability in domestic PV business and c) To maintain
cost advantage in CV business post BS VI.
Financial Summary
(Rs bn) 1QFY18 1QFY17 YoY (%) 4QFY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 585 659 (11.2) 772 (24.2) 2,730 2,697 3,021 3,413 3,857
EBITDA 58 85 (31.9) 118 (51.0) 383 335 361 447 516
APAT 32 18 80.8 43 (26.2) 150 102 92 152 179
Diluted EPS (Rs) 9.4 5.2 80.8 12.8 (26.2) 44.3 30.2 27.1 44.8 52.8
P/E (x) 8.6 12.5 14.0 8.4 7.1
EV / EBITDA (x)* 4.3 6.0 5.5 3.8 3.0
RoE (%) 22.0 12.2 10.1 14.9 15.2
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Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
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Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
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Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
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Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
SOTP Valuation
8|Page
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
TTMT’s MHCV Market Share Declined TTMT’s PV Market Share Improved Sequentially
Volumes (in '000) M/S - RHS Volumes (in '000) M/S - RHS
60 55.0% 50 6.0%
45 5.8%
50 40 5.6%
50.0%
40 35 5.4%
30 5.2%
30 45.0% 25 5.0%
20 4.8%
20 15 4.6%
40.0%
10 10 4.4%
5 4.2%
0 35.0% 0 4.0%
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Research Source: SIAM, HDFC sec Research
9|Page
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
(Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E (Rs bn) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
Net Revenues 2,730 2,697 3,021 3,413 3,857 SOURCES OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 3.9 (1.2) 12.0 13.0 13.0 Share Capital - Equity 7 7 7 7 7
Material Expenses 1,634 1,659 1,855 2,065 2,403 Reserves 801 866 946 1,086 1,254
Employee Expenses 289 283 317 358 366 Total Shareholders’ Funds 808 873 953 1,093 1,261
Product Development Expenses 35 34 35 31 31 Minority Interest 9 10 11 13 15
Other Operating Expenses 390 386 453 512 540 Long-term Debt 705 735 712 682 692
EBITDA 383 335 361 447 516 Short-term Debt - - - - -
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.0 12.4 12.0 13.1 13.4 Total Debt 705 735 712 682 692
EBITDA Growth (%) (3.1) (12.6) 7.8 23.8 15.5 Net Deferred Taxes 4 8 12 16 22
Depreciation 167 179 206 202 222 Long-term Provisions & Others 205 220 219 227 233
EBIT 216 156 155 245 294 TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 1,731 1,845 1,906 2,030 2,222
Other Income (Including EO Items) 9 8 8 9 8 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Interest 49 42 45 45 43 Net Block 1,006 1,201 1,309 1,393 1,463
PBT 176 121 118 209 259 CWIP 285 284 288 292 297
Tax (Incl Deferred) 30 33 39 69 77 Goodwill 48 48 48 48 48
Minority Interest (1) (1) (1) (2) (3) Investments 13 13 13 13 13
Profit in respect of investments in Associate Companies 6 15 14 14 (0) LT Loans & Advances 331 365 350 406 431
RPAT 141 75 66 128 185 Total Non-current Assets 1,684 1,910 2,008 2,153 2,252
EO (Loss) / Profit (Net Of Tax) (35) (28) - - - Inventories 334 381 369 394 430
APAT 150 102 92 152 179 Debtors 130 150 145 184 201
APAT Growth (%) 3.9 (31.9) (10.4) 65.8 17.8 Cash & Equivalents 518 363 237 253 362
Adjusted EPS (Rs) 44.3 30.2 27.1 44.8 52.8 Total Current Assets 982 894 751 832 993
EPS Growth (%) (1.5) (31.9) (10.4) 65.8 17.8 Creditors 935 960 853 955 1,023
Other Current Liabilities & Provns
Total Current Liabilities 935 960 853 955 1,023
Net Current Assets 47 (66) (102) (123) (30)
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 1,731 1,845 1,906 2,030 2,222
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
10 | P a g e
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
11 | P a g e
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
Rating Chart
R HIGH
E
T
U MEDIUM
R
N LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK
Ratings Explanation:
12 | P a g e
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
Price Chart
Reco History
550 Date CMP Reco Target
06-May-17 420 BUY 498
450 14-Aug-17 374 BUY 498
350
250
150
50
Sep-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Jun-17
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
May-17
Jan-17
Mar-17
Aug-16
Aug-17
Rating Definition:
13 | P a g e
Tata Motors PICK OF THE WEEK
Aug 14, 2017
Disclosure:
I, Kushal Rughani, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL
has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s)
or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or
more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not
have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – NO
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon
information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy,
completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such
jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed
or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition,
investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail
and/or its attachments.
HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in
any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including
but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals
in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-
managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor
Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage
service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496
5066
Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com Phone: (022) 3045 3600
HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE-INB/F/E 231109431, BSE-INB/F 011109437, AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549, PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 04102015, IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: HDF 2806925/HDF14 |Page
C000222657,
SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475, CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193
Mutual Funds Investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer and scheme related documents carefully before investing.