TANZANIA ECONOMY ANALYSIS REPORT FROM 2013 TO 2018

FIELD OF INTEREST
1.GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

2.INTEREST RATES

3.HARD CURRECY (TSH USD)

4.INFLATION

5.EMPLOYMENT RATE

6.STOCK MARKET

7.MONEY SUPPLY

8. ROAD SAFETY INCIDENTS

9.INTERACTION BETWEEN WORKERS COMPENSATION FUND AND GDP

1.GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is measured as the value of goods and services produced in the country
during accounting period.

PERCENTAGE SHARES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. (At Current Price)

ECONOMIC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY KIND OF ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY ACTIVITY - PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATES. (At Constant Price)

Agriculture, 31.2 28.8 29.0 29.2 30.1 ECONOMIC 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
forestry and ACTIVITY
fishing
Agriculture, 3.2 3.4 2.3 2.1 3.6
forestry and
Industry and 22.7 23.2 24.3 24.9 26.4
fishing
Construction Industry and 9.5 10.3 11.3 10.3 12.1
Construction
Services 41.0 40.9 40.0 39.2 37.5
Services 7.1 7.2 6.9 7.6 6.6
All economic 93.7 91.9 92.2 92.3 93.1
activities All economic 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.9 7.7
activities
Taxes on 6.3 8.1 7.8 7.7 6.9
products Taxes on 14.2 7.7 9.6 7.8 0.5
products
GDP at market 100 100 100 100 100 GDP at 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1
prices market
prices

Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Figure 1:TANZANIA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FROM 2013 TO 2017

54 51.73
52
50 48.26
47.65
GDP (USD billion)

48
45.63
46 44.41
44
42
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
YEARS

 The trend shows an increase in GDP from 44.1 USD billion in 2013 to 51.73 USD billion in 2017. This is due
to improvement in economic activities
 GDP is growing at an increasing rate from 6.7% in 2013 to 7.7% in 2017
 The percentage share of Industry and construction sector is increasing from 22.7% to 26.4% meanwhile
that of services including wholesale and retail, transport and storage, real estate, information and
communication etc. is declining from 41%to 37.5%
 2. INTEREST RATES

The following are charts showing lending rates in Tanzania and other East African countries
Figure 2: LENDING RATES IN TANZANIA FROM 2013 TO 2017

17.97
17.84

17.78
18.5

17.69
17.46
18

17.01
17.5
16.59
Interest rate (%)

16.38

16.32
16.21
17

16.13
16.12

16.08
16.05

16.02
15.87
15.84
15.84

16.5

15.69
15.58
15.57
16
15.5
15
14.5
14
June

June

June

June

June

June
March

March

March

March

March
December
December

December

December

December
September

September

September

September

September
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
YEARS
Source: Bank of Tanzania

Figure 3:LENDING RATES IN EAST AFRICA FROM 2013 TO 2016

30

25

20

15

10

0
Values 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Burundi Kenya Rwanda

South Sudan Tanzania Uganda
Source:world Bank

 Lending rate is the amount that the bank charges on money that it lends.
 Lending rates in Tanzania was 15.84% in June 2013, it continued to rise and fall throughout. from
march 2017 up to June 2018 it has been rising at increasing rate due to increased risk of premium
and rise of non-performing loans.
 Uganda has the highest lending rates compared to other countries throughout the years. This is
because of the need to bring down inflation facing the country.
3.EXCHANGE RATES.

The following figure shows (TZS vs USD) exchange rate from 2013 to 2017
Figure 4: AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE (TZS vs USD) FROM 2013 TO 2017

2017 2,240

2016 2,181
YEARS

2015 2,160

2014 1,733

2013 1,587

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Exchange rates TZS vs USD

 This graph shows that there is an increase in Exchange rate in Tanzania.

 This implies that Tanzania currency is depreciating in relation to USD as we move from 2013 to
2017. variables such as national debt, political tension, central bank actions and economic
growth affect exchange rate movement in Tanzania. Depreciation could also be due to
strengthening of US economy which make the dollar stronger pushing down the value of
Tanzanian shilling.
4.INFLATION

The following are charts showing inflation rate in Tanzania and other East African countries
Figure 5

14
12
INFLATION (%)

10
8
6
4
2
0

Apr
Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Jun

Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct
Sep

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

YEARS

Inflation rate food non-food

Source; National bureau of Statistics

Figure 6:INFLATION RATE(%) IN EAST AFRICA FROM 2013 TO 2016

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2013 2014 2015 2016
-50

Rwanda RWA Burundi BDI Kenya KEN

Uganda UGA Tanzania TZA South Sudan SSD
Source; World Bank

 Inflation refers to an overall increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a weighted
average of prices for different goods. ... Annual inflation, refers to the percent change of the CPI
compared to the same month of the previous year.
 Inflation rate in Tanzania has been rising and falling throughout the years. From January 2017
food inflation fell due to decrease in price of food items. Non-food inflation has been decreasing
from 2013 to April 2015 then rose again at a slow speed from 2015 to 2018 due to increase in
price of non-food items
  South Sudan has the highest inflation reaching 380% in 2016. This was due to fiscal deficit associated with
war and security spending facing the country which increased the pace of printing more money.

5.UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

The following charts show unemployment rate in Tanzania and other East African countries.
Figure 7:UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN TANZANIA FROM 2013 TO 2017

3.5

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source; World Bank

Figure 8: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)IN EAST AFRICA FROM 2013 TO 2017

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Burundi BDI Kenya KEN South Sudan SSD

Tanzania TZA Uganda UGA Rwanda RWA
Source; World Bank

 Unemployment rate is the percentage of unemployed people in the total labor force.
 South Sudan and Kenya has the highest unemployment rate in East Africa comparing to other
countries. This is due to reasons such as; Education system, lack of experience and right attitude
to work, inadequate skills etc.
  In Tanzania unemployment rate was higher in 2013 comparing to other years. This was because
by education system, lack of skills in business training, inadequate credit facilities, emphasis on
formal sector alone etc.

6.STOCK MARKETS.

The following chart shows the movement

Figure 9:STOCK MARKET MOVEMENT FROM JUNE 2013 TO JUNE 2018

6000

5000

4000
POINTS

3000

2000

1000

0
MAR
MAR

MAR

MAR

MAR
DEC

DEC

DEC

DEC

DEC
JUN

JUN

JUN

JUN

JUN

JUN
SEPT

SEPT

SEPT

SEPT

SEPT

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

YEARS

DSEI TSI

Source: Dar es salaam stock exchange.

 Tanzania All Share Index DSEI is a market capitalization weighted index with base reference of
1000.The index includes all stocks listed on the Dar es salaam stock exchange.
 Tanzania Share Index(TSI) its measures the performance of locally listed companies only.
 Tanzania Stock Index shows an upward trend due to growth in Domestic market capitalization.
The growth was attributed to the appreciation most of the domestic share prices.
 Dar e salaam stock exchange index has an upward trend from June 2013 to June 2018. Growth
in DSE All Share Index is mainly attributed to appreciation of domestic companies share prices.
7.MONEY SUPPLY.

Figure 10:Money Supply from June 2013 to March 2018

20
18
16
Money suppl(%)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
dec
Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar
jun

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec

Jun

Dec
sep

sep

sep

sep

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 sep 2018

YEARS

MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH (%)

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-20

Burundi Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda South Sudan

  Money supply in South Sudan has increased much from 2013 which was -1.60% to 142.7% 2016.
This was caused by military spending since the civil war started in December 2013 forcing the
government to borrow billions of pounds from the Central Bank.
 In Tanzania, money supply has been increasing from 2013 to 2015 then drastic fall in money
supply in 2016 which was caused by contraction of net foreign asset of the banking system

ROAD SAFETY INCIDENTS

Accidents caused by vehicles often leads to death, injury, loss and damage to properties.

The major causes of road accidents are

 Human factor: this includes dangerous driving, careless driving, over speeding, careless
overtaking, careless passengers, unattended livestock etc.
 Defective motor vehicles; Motor Vehicle Defects, Poor motor vehicle lighting
 Environmental factor; This includes fire, road barriers, poor infrastructure, railway crossing etc.

The following are statistics showing Road traffic accidents in Tanzania from 2014 to 2016.
Figure 11: Number of Road Traffic Accidents, Deaths and Injured Persons, Tanzania, 2014 TO 2016.

INCIDENT 2014 2015 2016 TOTAL

Accidents 15420 8777 10297 25717
Fatal accidents 3106 2909 2840 5946
deaths 3857 3574 3381 7238
injured persons 15320 9993 9549 24869
Source: National Bureau Statistics

Total number of accidents were including death of 7238 people and 24869 injured people from January
2014 to December 2016.

Road accidents need close supervision and monitoring in order to minimize deaths, injuries and damage
to property because the death or injury of an individual is a loss to the family and to the nation as a
whole.

Deaths and injuries which may result to permanent disability or temporary disability affect
medium- and long-term growth prospects by removing prime age adults from the work force,
and reducing productivity of the nation.
So as to boost economy, worker’s safety and health should be maintained and improved so as
to ensure continuous productivity.
Workers Compensation Fund as a social security schemes ensures workers obtain benefits
such as medical aid, payment for permanent disablement, payment for temporary disablement,
rehabilitation services, payment for constant attendant care grant, funeral grants and
compensation to dependents of a deceased employee. Also the fund performs the function of
promotion of prevention of occupational accidents, disease and deaths together with provision
of public education and awareness programs. This is done so as to minimize the number of
traffic incidents, maintain and improve health of employees, living standard of employees and
boost the economy at large.

INTERACTION BETWEEN WORKERS COMPENSATION FUND AND GDP (2015-2018)

Basing on the above analysis, the trend indicates the rapidly increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in
the year 2015 to 2018 from 45.63% to 51.73%. Hence therefore, Occupational and safety is related with
economic activities undertaken in the country. As the economic activities grow and
expand, occupational injuries and diseases are more likely to increase among workers in different
sectors of economy such as agriculture, mining, transport, and manufacture.

This may result in high occupational health and safety services demand, which might be difficult to meet
by developing countries which its priority is to expand economically without taking consideration of
worker’s health and safety, thus the more the economic activities, the more the occupational incidents
that will require worker’s compensation.

Most Tanzanians are not covered by the occupational health and safety law and do not access
occupational health services. On the other hand, currently its only 15,559 which is 53.87% of employers
that have been registered within the fund, the remaining 13,326 which is 46.13% of employers are not
covered (unregistered). Capacities should be improved through training and research to enable
enforcement of employers in ensuring healthy and safety and covering their employees for
compensation against unforeseen occupational incident. Conclusively, Workers compensation and
Occupational health and safety goes hand in hand with the economy growth.