228 CHAPTER 8

EXAMPLE 8.8
Mean Hours of Study for the Class Yesterday
T A B L E 8 . 3  Hours of Study
Yesterday for a Population of A class of N  200 students is asked, “To the nearest hour, how many hours did
College Students you study yesterday?” The instructor is interested only in the responses of the
students in his class, so the 200 students in the class constitute a population.
The probability distribution of the responses is shown in Table 8.3.
X  Hours Number of
of Study Students Probability What is the mean number of hours studied the previous day in this popula-
0 16 16/200  .08 
tion? The answer can be found using the formula E(X )  xi pi , and the calcu-
1 28 28/200  .14 lation is
2 50 50/200  .25
E(X )  (0  .08)  (1  .14)  (2  .25)  (3  .18)  (4  .13)
3 36 36/200  .18
4 26 26/200  .13  (5  .11)  (6  .07)  (7  .03)  (8  .01)
5 22 22/200  .11
 2.96 hours
6 14 14/200  .07
7 6 6/200  .03 This mean can also be calculated in the usual way that we average 200 individ-
8 2 2/200  .01
ual values, which is that we can total the 200 individual values and divide that
Total 200 1.00
total by N  200. ◆

Mean and Standard Deviation Suppose a population has N individuals and a measurement X is of inter-
for a Population est. Define:

ki  value of X for individual i.

x1, x2, x3, . . . as the distinct possible values for the measurement X.
p1, p2, p3, . . . as the proportions of the population with the values x1, x2,
x3, . . . .

Then, the population mean and standard deviation are

E(X )   
1
N k  x p
i i i

(ki  )2
Standard deviation of X     N
 (xi  )2pi

8.4 BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLES

We learned in Section 8.2 that a random variable is either a discrete random
variable or a continuous random variable. Within each of these two broad
types, certain classes of random variables are so common that they also
have a name. Formulas for the probability distribution functions of these
common classes of variables have been developed, and many computer soft-
ware programs and calculators are programmed to provide probabilities for
them.
In this section, we consider an important class of discrete random variables.
A variable in this class is called a binomial random variable. Certain conditions
must be met for a variable to fall into this class, but the basic idea is that a bi-
nomial random variable is a count of how many times an event occurs (or does
not occur) in a particular number of observations or trials that make up a ran-
dom circumstance.
 RANDOM VARIABLES 229

Binomial Experiments and Binomial Random Variables

The number of heads in three tosses of a fair coin, the number of girls in six in-
dependent births, and the number of men who are six feet tall or taller in a ran-
dom sample of ten adult men from a large population are all examples of bino-
mial random variables. A binomial random variable is the result of a binomial
experiment.

A binomial experiment is defined by the following conditions:

1. There are n “trials” where n is determined in advance and is not a

random value.
2. There are two possible outcomes on each trial, called “success” and
“failure” and denoted S and F.
3. The outcomes are independent from one trial to the next.
4. The probability of a “success” remains the same from one trial to
the next, and this probability is denoted by p. The probability of a
“failure” is 1  p for every trial.

A binomial random variable is defined as X  number of successes in the

n trials of a binomial experiment. Each row in Table 8.4 contains an example of
a binomial experiment and a binomial random variable. For each example, go
through the conditions for a binomial experiment and make sure you under-
stand why those conditions apply to that example.

The following four examples illustrate a few subtle features of binomial random
variables that could initially be confusing. Keep these points in mind when try-
ing to determine whether a random variable fits the binomial description:

◆ There may be more than two possible outcomes for each trial, but the ran-
dom variable counts how many times a particular subset of the possibili-
ties occurs. Anything in that subset is a “success” and anything not in
the subset is a “failure.” For example, a single die can display either 1, 2,

T A B L E 8 . 4  Examples of Binomial Experiments

and Binomial Random Variables

Random Circumstance Random Variable Success Failure n p

(1) Toss three fair coins X  number of Head Tail 3 1/2
heads
(2) Roll a die eight times X  number of 4s 4, 6 1, 2, 3, 5 8 2/6  1/3
and 6s
(3) Randomly sample X  number who Seen Have not 1000 Proportion of
1000 U.S. adults have seen a UFO UFO seen UFO all adults who
have seen a
UFO
(4) Roll two dice X  number of Sum is 7 Sum not 7 1 6/36  1/6
once times sum is 7
230 CHAPTER 8

3, 4, 5, or 6 dots, but a success can be defined by a particular set of them,

while a failure is anything else. Look at the second example in Table 8.4.
◆ Sample surveys can produce a binomial random variable when we count
how many individuals in the sample have a particular opinion or trait (see
the third example in Table 8.4). A “trial” is one sampled individual. A “suc-
cess” is that the individual has the opinion or trait. The probability of “suc-
cess” is the proportion in the population who have the opinion or trait. If a
random sample is taken without replacement from a large population, the
conditions of a binomial experiment are considered to be met, although
the probability of a “success” actually changes very slightly from one trial
to the next as each sampled individual is removed from eligibility.
◆ Sampling without replacement from a small population does not produce a
binomial random variable. Suppose a class consists of ten boys and ten
girls. Five children are randomly selected to be in a play. X  the number
of girls selected. Notice that X is not a binomial random variable because
the probability that a girl is selected each time depends on who is al-
ready in the sample and who is left, violating the condition that the prob-
ability of “success” must remain the same on each trial. X is an example
of a hypergeometric random variable, a class that will not be considered
in this book.
◆ Any individual random circumstance can be treated as a binomial experi-
ment with n  1 and p  probability of a particular outcome. In this case,
the random variable X is either 0 or 1, and the random variable may also
be called a Bernoulli random variable. The fourth example in Table 8.4
illustrates such a variable.

8.5
The word binomial is from the Latin bi  “two,” and nomen  “name.” Ex-
plain why the word binomial is appropriate for a binomial random variable.

turn on your mind

Finding Probabilities for Binomial Random Variables

For a binomial random variable, the probabilities for the possible values of X
are given by the formula

n!
P(X  k)  pk(1  p)nk   for k  0, 1, 2, . . . , n
k!(n  k)!
The formula for P(X  k) is made up of two parts.

1. The first part, n!/k!(n  k)!, gives the number of simple events in the
sample space (consisting of all possible listings of successes and fail-
ures in n trials) that have exactly k successes. The notation n! is read
“n-factorial,” and it is the product of the integers from 1 to n. For in-
stance, 3!  1  2  3  6. By convention, 0!  1.
2. The second part, pk(1  p)nk, gives the probability for each of the sim-
ple events for which X  k.
 RANDOM VARIABLES 231

Remember that a probability distribution function for a discrete random variable

is a table or rule that assigns probabilities to the possible values of the random
variable X. It is synonymous to say that a random variable X is a binomial ran-
dom variable and to say that X has a binomial distribution. In both cases, the
probability distribution function for X is the formula just given for P(X  k).

EXAMPLE 8.9
Probability of Two Wins in Three Plays
Suppose that the probability that you win a game is .2 for each play and
plays of the game are independent of one another. Let X  number of wins in
three plays. What is P(X  2), the probability that you win exactly twice in
three plays? For this problem, X is a binomial random variable with n  3
.512
.5 and success probability p  .2. Also, 1  p  .8 and k  2 in the formula for
P(X  k).
.4 .384
◆ There are
Probability

.3
3! 6
 3
.2 2!(3  2)! 2(1)
.096
.1 simple events that produce X  2. The three sequences with two wins
.008 are WWL, WLW, and LWW.
.0
0 1 2 3 ◆ For each of these simple events, the probability is pk(1  p)nk 
x = Number of wins (.2)2(.8)1  .032.
FIGURE 8.1 Probability distribution ◆ So the probability of exactly two wins is P(X  2)  3(.032)  .096.
function for binomial random variable
with n  3 and p  2 The complete probability distribution function (pdf) for X  number of wins in
three plays is graphed in Figure 8.1. See if you can verify that P(X  1)  .384.

Using Excel to Find “By hand” calculations of probabilities for binomial variables are te-
Binomial Probabilities tech
note
dious. Fortunately, binomial probabilities are available in many
computer software programs and calculators. To find binomial
probabilities using Excel,

◆ P(X  k), is calculated with the command BINOMDIST(k,n,p,false).

The “false” indicates that we want the probability for exactly k
successes.
◆ P(X  k) is calculated with the command BINOMDIST(k,n,p,true).
The “true” indicates that the desired probability is “cumulative” and
that we want the probability of k or fewer successes. ◆

EXAMPLE 8.10
Excel Calculations for Number of Girls in Ten Births
Let X  number of girls in ten births, and assume that p  .488 is the probabil-
ity that any birth is a girl. As noted in Chapter 7, this value of p is based on
birth records in the United States. We can use Excel to find that the probabil-
ity of exactly seven girls in ten births is  BINOMDIST(7,10,.488,false)  .106.
The probability of seven or fewer girls is  BINOMDIST(7,10,.488,true) 
.953. ◆
232 CHAPTER 8

Minitab Tip Calculating Binomial Probabilities

tech
note ◆ Use CalcProbability DistributionsBinomial
◆ In the dialog box, select either “Probability” or “Cumulative Prob-
ability” depending on whether you want P(X  k) or P(X  k).
Specify the number of trials and the probability of success.
◆ Click on “Input constant” and fill in the corresponding box with
the value of k.

Note: To find probabilities for several values of k at once, first store the
values in a column of the worksheet, and then specify that column as
“Input Column.” ◆

EXAMPLE 8.11
Guessing Your Way to a Passing Score
You’ve been busy lately, so busy you’re surprised to learn when you arrive at
today’s statistics class that a 15-question True-False quiz is on the agenda. The
quiz is about readings that haven’t been discussed during class and you haven’t
done the readings, so you’re forced to guess at every question. You’ll pass the
quiz if you get ten or more correct answers, so you wonder about P(X  10),
where X  number of correct answers. X is a binomial random variable with
n  15 trials and p  .5 is the success probability for any question. To find the
probability of ten or more correct answers, note that you’ll either get ten or more
questions right, or you’ll get nine or fewer right. So, the answer for P(X  10) can
be found by determining the cumulative probability P(X  9), and then subtract-
ing that value from 1. Here’s Minitab output with the value of P(X  9):

Cumulative Distribution Function

Binomial with n  15 and p  0.500000
x P(X  x)
9.0 0.8491

The probability of a passing score is 1  .8491  .1509. You’ve got a chance to

pass, although the probability you don’t pass is .8491! ◆

Expected Value (Mean) and Standard Deviation

for a Binomial Random Variable
To find the mean value of a binomial random variable, we don’t have to use the
formula from Section 8.3 for expected value. There is a much simpler formula
that applies to all binomial random variables, and this formula is easy to under-
stand. If you flip a fair coin 100 times, for instance, how many heads would you
expect to result, on average? The answer is 100  1/2  50 heads, which is the
number of flips times the probability of heads for any single flip. Or, if you
guess the answer for every question on a multiple-choice test with 25 ques-
tions, each with 5 choices, you could expect to get about 25  1/5  5 right an-