PRESENTED BY

Shakir Ullah
2016-MS-GE-10

SUPERVISOR BY
Dr. Muhammad Farooq Ahmed

University of Engineering & Technology

Lahore
 Postgraduate Research Thesis

Landslide Hazard Mapping of Balakot,

Kaghan and Naran Areas, Pakistan
 Contents
❖ Introduction
❖ Study Area
❖ Problem Statement
❖ Objectives of the Research
❖ Methodology
❖ Result and Discussion
❖ Validation
❖ Conclusion
 Introduction

❖ Globally, the landslide in mountainous region is

considered as a major destructive geo-hazard and
produce immense social and economic losses (Kafeer
et al.1984)
❖ Approximately 9% of the globe natural disasters
considered as landslides (Gekceoglu et al. 2005).
❖ Frequently Pakistan has been exposed to multiple
geo-hazards containing landslide (Ahmed et al.
2016).
 Study Area
❖ Tectonically the area is more susceptible to
landslide hazard due to, complex geology, high
seismicity, steep topography, heavy rainfall.

❖ The topographic characteristics of the area is

mostly containing high relief, mountainous, and
undulated terrain.

❖ Due to the steep slopes the shallow landslide are

the general phenomena in study area (Basharat et
al. 2016).
Fig.1 Study Map of the research area containing main
tributaries.
 Geology of the study area
Geological
Sr.No Major Rock Description Rating
formation
Chlorite-epidote-quartz, schist with minor quartzose
1 JK (Jurassic Rocks) sandstone,marble,calcareous phyllite and 7
slate,gabbro,diorite,hornblende
Shallow store: unconsolidated stores of gravel, clay,
2 Q (Holocene) moraines, sand and gravel. 3

Generally, granite and leucocratic siliceous gneiss

Eg (Cambrian
3 reaching from exceptionally foliated augen gneiss 2
igneous Rocks)
Lava streams of augite-andesite configuration and
agglomerate slate with slight limestone, porphyries
4 Rcp (Panjel unit) and quartzite 9

Pet (Pre-Cambrian
Medium to coarse grained metaquartzites, micaceous
5 Metamorphic and 8
metaspammites and minor garnet mica schist.
Sedimentary Rocks)
 Problem Statement
❖ Landsliding is a serious concern in the northern
areas of Pakistan. In these areas landslides mostly
occur owing to snow melting, high seismicity,
glacier movement and seasonal rainfall every year
during the summer time (Mustafa et al. 2015).
 Problem Statement
❖ The study area is situated in mightiest Himalaya
Mountain Range where catastrophic landslides
occur on frequent basis. Therefore it is utmost
important to assemble landslide inventory and
susceptibility maps of these areas because of its
significance as transportation for China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) project and
hydrologic importance to the region for flood
control, irrigation, and hydroelectric power
generation.
 Research Objectives
❖ The proposed research work aims to assemble
landslide inventory and susceptibility maps of
Balakot, Kaghan and Naran areas on regional scale
by using GIS and Remote Sensing Tools
❖The resultant landslide hazard maps of Balakot,
Naran and Kaghan areas will be serve as guide map
for more detailed analysis of specific project sites,
 Data and Methadology

Landslide Inventory Mapping of Study Area

❖ ASTER GDEMV2

❖ hydrology module in ArcGIS10.5 to prapare

Hillshade map

❖ The major topographic recognition keys includes

❖ Divergent contours, Crenulated contours, Isolated

topographic benches etc
Fig 2. topographic recognition keys (Ahmed et al., 2015)
Fig 3. Topography recognition keys.
Fig 4. Topography recognition keys.
Fig 5. Mapped landslides of the study area.
Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Study
Area
❖ Landslide conditioning factors such as slope,
slope angle, Elevation, aspect, and curvature
raster maps were extracted from the ASTER
DEM in ArcGIS software.
❖ The normalized difference vegetation index
(NDVI) map was obtained from Landsat 8
satellite image.
❖ The other map layers including Lithology,
Structure,Drinage, seismic hazard map were
digitized from the existing maps in order to use
then in the susceptibility mapping (Figure 6, 7)
Fig 6. Various map layer utilized for landslide hazard mapping in the
study area
Fig 7. Various map layer utilized for landslide hazard mapping in the
study area
Weighted Overlay Technique:
❖ Weighted overlay technique is an easy bi-variant
statistical approach in which multiple qualitative
map layers superimposed like as slope, aspect,
geologic, hydrological, etc. (Bachri and Shresta,
2010)
❖ Ranking Scale 1-9
Fuzzy Logic Method:
❖ The fuzzy logic methods based on the perception
of partial truth. In a fuzzy set theory, membership
is articulating on a continuous scale from 1
(demonstrating the highest susceptibility or full
membership of set) to 0 (demonstrating no
susceptibility or non-membership).
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
 Result and Discussion

❖ By utilizing the weighted overlay method on

raster information layers.
❖ The obtained map was renamed into four
hazard zones for example, low hazard zone,
moderate hazard zone, high hazard zone and
very high hazard zone
 Weighted Overlay Method

Table-1 Different combination of map layer (in rates) utilized for the
weighted overlay list landslide hazard mapping.

Seismic
Run Elevation Slope Curvature Aspect Rain Faults Drainage NDVI Geology
Hazard

1 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10

2 05 25 05 05 10 10 10 10 05 15

3 05 20 05 10 05 10 15 10 05 15

4 05 20 05 05 10 05 20 10 05 15

5 05 15 05 05 05 10 25 10 05 15

6 05 20 05 10 10 05 15 05 05 20

7 05 15 05 10 10 10 20 10 05 10

8 10 15 05 05 15 10 15 10 05 10

9 10 10 05 05 05 15 10 25 05 10

10 05 15 05 05 20 10 15 10 05 10
Table-4 disparity in distribution of the landslide hazard zones (in rates)
liable weighted combination of various guide layer

Combination Low Hazard Moderate Hazard High Hazard Very High Hazard

Run 1 2.4 36.3 55.8 5.3

Run 2 11.5 38.2 43.7 6.5

Run 3 12.5 42.3 39.3 5.7

Run 4 11.4 35.3 40 13.3

Run 5 20.9 42.9 29.2 6.8

Run 6 7.6 35.3 44.7 12.2

Run 7 15.4 41.8 35.5 7.0

Run 8 8.8 39.3 46.6 5.7

Run 9 13.7 36.8 41.9 7.6

Run 10 14.6 40.0 43.3 2.0

Fig.6 Landslide hazard map got from similarly weighted combination of
map layers (Run 1)
Fig.7 Diverse weighted overlay record landslide hazard map by applying
the guide layer ranking referred to in Table 3 (Run 3)
 Fuzzy Logic Method

Table-4 disparity in distribution of the landslide hazard zones (in rates)

liable fuzzy logic combination of various map layer

Moderate Very High

Run Gamma values Low Hazard High Hazard
Hazard Hazard

1 0.9 4.0 22.0 61.0 13.0

2 .85 10.0 25.0 56.0 9.0

3 .8 9.0 24.0 63.0 2.1

Fig 8. Landslide hazard map assembled by utilizing
the fuzzy logic approach utilizing gamma value
0.9.(Run1)table 4
 AHP Method

Table -5 pair-wise comparison matrix, weight rating and factor weights of

the thematic data layers

Attribute Aspect Slope Curvature Elevation NDVI Fault Seismic Drainage Lithology Precipitation Weight

Aspect 1 0.2 1 1 2 5 3 3 4 3 7.1

Slope 3 1 1 2 1 .333 2 .333 .2 .333 6.2

Curvature 1 .2 1 2 1 2 .23 .333 .333 .12 4.19

Elevation .333 .12 1 1 2 .14 .25 .25 .333 .333 6.67

NDVI 2 .333 .333 .333 1 .25 .12 .5 .35 .333 5.3

Fault 3 4 5 4 7 1 2 3 3 5 13.4

Seismic 3 5 6 5 6 1 1 3 3 4 14.0

Drainage 4 5 6 5 7 4 .333 .25 .333 1 14.7

Lithology 3 2 3 4 5 .333 .333 3 1 3 13.97

Precipitatio
3 2 4 5 3 .24 .333 2 .333 1 15.174
n
Figure 10. Landslide hazard map derived from AHP method (Run 1)
 Validation

Fig. 12 Landslide hazard map generated by utilizing weighted overlay

approach combined with mapped slide (Red color).
 Validation

Fig.11 Landslide hazard map created utilizing fuzzy logic technique united
with landslide inventory map. The red color shows the mapped landslide.
 Validation

Fig.12. Landslide hazard map created utilizing AHP technique united with
mapped landslide inventory map. The red color shows the mapped
 Conclusion

❖ Landslide hazard map is the one that represents the

susceptible zone to landslide in the mountainous
regions.
❖ The landslide hazard map of the present study shows
that around 61% area falls into the high to very high
susceptible zones because of the dominancy of
faults, lithology, slope steepness and intense winter
snowfall.
❖ The result of the susceptibility mapping was verified
using the landslide inventory map, and the
verification result showed approximately 70%
accuracy, the validated result showed good
agreement between landslide occurrence and
produced susceptibility map of the area
❖ The landslide hazard map of the study area presents
an important information about the current and
future risk associated with landslides for engineers,
planners, and public to minimize the damage issues
caused by landslides. .
❖ By using this landslide hazard map corrective
measurement can be carried out for moderate to
high susceptible zone by engineering approaches.