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Impact of Climate Change on Drinking Water Resources

Water is a medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystem. This
literature review tries to explore the climate change effects on drinking water resources
across India and the potential for sustainable development of surface and groundwater
resources within the constraints imposed by the possible climate change and hydrologic
regimes and based on the literature study suggests some adoptive measures and future
research needs in India. The literature review carried out in this study identifies few papers,
articles and reports that focus specifically on the impacts of CC on drinking water bodies
within the country. Such articles and reports conclude that CC will have many direct and
indirect impacts on both water quantity and quality. These impacts will differ depending
on the type of water resources (groundwater, bank filtrates and surface water) and the
region.

Water and Climate Change

Water is vital to all forms of life on earth, from the simplest of living organisms to the most
complex of human systems. Climate is a very decisive factor in water resource availability
of a region. (Pathak et al., 2014). The hydrological cycle is intimately linked with
atmospheric temperature and radiation balance. The greenhouse effect is the natural
mechanism to maintain the temperature and radiation of the atmosphere. Human
activities in particular, the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation have resulted in
increase of concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and thus have altered
the balance of the natural greenhouse mechanism. With increasing concentration of
GHGs in the atmosphere, this effect is amplified, thereby increasing the earth’s
temperature (Raneesh, 2014). Scientific evidences indicates that due to increased
concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere temperature is increasing and the
climate of the earth is changing (Melese, 2016).

Climate change is recognized as one of the most serious challenges facing the world
today. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) defines
climate change as, “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to
human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods” (Melese,
2016). Warming of the climate system in recent decades is evident from increase in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
global sea level. A warmer climate may lead to intensification of the hydrological cycle,
resulting in higher rates of evaporation and increase of liquid precipitation. These
processes, in association with a shifting pattern of precipitation, may affect the spatial
and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture, groundwater reserves etc. and may
increase the frequency of droughts and floods. (Pathak et al., 2014).

Likely impacts of projected climate change on water resources, consequent to global

warming due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, has
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emerged as a matter of grave concern to decision makers all over the globe. The IPCC
Third Assessment Report (IPCC, 2001) estimates a global increase of mean annual
temperature of 0.8°C to 2.6°C by 2050 and 1.4°C to 5.8°C by 2100. The study also reports
results that indicate an increase in annual precipitation induced by climate change in
high and mid-latitudes and most equatorial regions, as well as a general decrease in the
subtropics. Results also show that flood magnitude and frequency is likely to increase,
due to the concentration of precipitation in winter in most areas of the globe.
Simultaneously, the decrease of low flows in many regions associated with higher
temperatures constitutes a serious threat to the quality of water resources (Cunha, 2015).

Several hydrological variables and characteristics of the water resources systems may be
affected by global climate change. A brief reference to these variables and
characteristics is made below. a) Temperature: Impacts of global climate change on
temperature are perhaps the most obvious ones and are particularly important because
temperature is a driver of many other hydrological variables.

b) Precipitation: Together with temperature, precipitation is the second hydrological

variable considered in the global climate models to express the impact of global climate
changes.

c) Evapotranspiration: An increase of temperature normally leads to an increase of

potential evapotranspiration, although actual evapotranspiration is conditioned by the
amount of water available in the soil and plants. Transpiration of water by plants is
affected by a number of variables, including concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

d) Soil Moisture: Temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration directly affect soil

moisture. But the strongest influence is normally due to precipitation. Soil moisture
changes influence strongly crop growth and water needs for irrigation.

e) Runoff: Runoff is clearly affected by the above mentioned hydrological variables and,
in particular, by precipitation. However future runoff is also conditioned by several other
climatic factors and human influences, such as stream flow diversions and regulation or
interaction between surface and groundwater, which makes difficult to predict future
runoff.

f) Groundwater: Changes in the magnitude and seasonal distribution of precipitation will

cause changes in the patterns of seasonal aquifer recharge with consequences for the
groundwater stocks and flows and for the quality of groundwater. The interaction
between surface water and groundwater is also expected to be modified.

g) Floods and Droughts: In parallel with the impact of climate change on the average
values of hydrological variables, the impact on extreme phenomena, such as floods and
droughts, is also relevant. Several studies indicate a tendency for an intensification of
climate variability in situations of climate change and offer, for some regions, apparently
paradoxical scenarios of increase in both floods and droughts.

h) Aquatic Ecosystems: Climate change may affect aquatic ecosystems in many

different ways as the health of ecosystems depends of many climate-sensitive factors,
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including temperature, water quantity and quality, and timing of water availability. These
impacts may be particularly serious in lakes and reservoirs, where important changes in
the dynamics of these water bodies may lead to alterations of nutrient exchanges or to
invasions of exotic species.

i) Water Quality: Climate change may affect the quality of water bodies as a
consequence of changes in runoff, changes in the pattern of transport of agricultural,
industrial or domestic pollutants or modification of the assimilation capacity of pollution
by the water bodies related to changes in water temperature.

j) Water Demand: The changes in temperature associated to global climate change will
not only have an impact on water availability but, also, on water demand. This impact
will tend to be particularly relevant in the case of water use for agriculture, as a result
from changes of evapotranspiration and soil moisture, but may also be significant in the
cases of industrial and domestic uses.

k) Sea Level Rise: The temperature increase associated to global climate change will
cause a rise of the sea level as a consequence of thermal expansion of the ocean waters
and melting of glaciers and polar ice. This will have negative impacts on water resources,
causing saline intrusion in coastal aquifers and affecting coastal and estuarine
ecosystems (Cunha, 2015).

Impact of climate change on water resources of India

India with 2.4% of the world’s total area has 16% of the world’s population; but has only
4% of the total available fresh water. Its geographical area of 328.726 Mha is covered by
a large number of small and big rivers. Over 70% of India’s population of more than one
billion is rural and agriculture oriented, for whom these rivers are the source of their
livelihood and prosperity. There are 12 major river basins in India with individual
catchment area of more than 10 Mha and a cumulative catchment area of 252.8 Mha
(Table 1). Average annual potential in rivers is about 1571 billion m3 (BCM), i.e. 85% of the
total natural run-off. (Pathak et al., 2014).

The studies of basin-wise impacts of climate change on water resources availability

indicate that climate change is likely to affect the hydrological cycle, which will result in:
(i) more rainfall in lesser time; (ii) decrease in number of rainy days; (iii) overall increase in
precipitation; (iv) increased glacial-melt-runoff initially and then afterwards decrease; (v)
increase in runoff but less ground water recharge; (vi) increase in flood events particularly
of flash floods; (vii) increase in drought like situations; (viii) increase in landslide events in
hilly areas, and some other related issues etc. (Pathak et al., 2014).

Another source of water is groundwater resources which have static and dynamic
components. The static fresh groundwater reserves of the country have been estimated
as 10812 BCM. The dynamic component which is replenished annually has been assessed
as 432 BCM (Pathak et al., 2014). Groundwater has been the mainstay for meeting the
domestic water needs of more than 80% of rural and 50% of urban population, besides
fulfilling the irrigation needs of around 50% of irrigated agriculture. The impact of rainfall
variation on the region’s groundwater resources is less understood, even though
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groundwater forms about half of the region’s water supply (Mall et al., 2006). It is equally
important to consider the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater systems.
As part of the hydrologic cycle, it can be anticipated that groundwater systems would
be affected by changes in recharge, which encompasses changes in precipitation and
evapo-transpiration, potentially by changes in the nature of the interactions between
groundwater and surface water systems.

Water resources will come under increasing pressure in Indian subcontinent due to the
changing climate. The climate affects the demand for water as well as the supply and
quality. Particularly, in arid and semi-arid regions of India any shortfall in water supply
multiplied with climate change will enhance competition for water use for a wide range
of economic, social and environmental applications. In the future scenarios, larger
population will lead to heightened demand for irrigation and perhaps industrialization at
the expense of drinking water. Disputes over water resources may well be a significant
social consequence in an environment degraded by pollution and stressed by climate
change. After 2025 AD climate change could also make conditions worse if rainfall
amounts decrease in the major food producing regions and evaporation rates increase.
Urgent and decisive action must begin now if impending water crisis of national
proportions later in the 21st century are to be avoided during the next 30 years” (Mall et
al., 2006).

OBSERVED CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS DURING THE PAST YEARS
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