Beijing, 8 December 2017

© OECD/IEA 2017
 A world in transition, and moved by China

 Four large-scale upheavals in global energy set the scene for the new Outlook:
 The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas
 Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries
 China’s new drive to “make the skies blue again” is recasting its role in energy
 The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation
 China’s drive for “blue skies” has domestic and global implications:
 New era of development & economic shift towards light industries & services change
structure of energy use
 Energy demand growth slowing; predominance of coal under challenge
 Leadership for China in a range of clean energy technologies, increasing role in gas markets
 Environmental considerations to the fore, notably air quality
© OECD/IEA 2017
 A world in motion..

Change in world energy demand by fuel

Coal (Mtce) Oil (mb/d) Gas (bcm) Low-carbon (Mtoe)

2 500 30 2 000 2 000

2 000 24 1 600 1 600

1 500 18 1 200 1 200

1 000 12 800 800

500 6 400 400

1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40

Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand:

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 .. as China moves global energy markets, again

Change in world energy demand by fuel

Coal (Mtce) Oil (mb/d) Gas (bcm) Low-carbon (Mtoe)

2 500 30 2 000 2 000

2 000 24 1 600 1 600

1 500 18 1 200 1 200

1 000 12 800 800

500 6 400 400

0
1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40 1990-2016 2016-40
- 500
1990-2016 2016-40 China Other countries

Low-carbon sources & natural gas meet 85% of the increase in global demand:
China’s switch to a new economic model & a cleaner energy mix drives global trends
© OECD/IEA 2017
 The future is electrifying

Electricity generation by selected region Sources of global

electricity demand growth

China
United States
India Other

European Union Industrial

motors
Electric vehicles
Southeast Asia
Large
Middle East appliances
Connected Cooling
Africa & small
appliances
2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000
TWh
2016 Growth to 2040

India adds the equivalent of today’s European Union to its electricity generation by 2040,
while China adds the equivalent of today’s United States
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 Solar PV forges ahead in the China’s power mix

China average annual net capacity additions by type

Coal
Gas
2010-2016
Nuclear
Renewables Solar PV Wind Other

Coal
Gas
2017-2040
Nuclear
Renewables Solar PV Wind Other
10 20 30 40 50 60 GW

China turns away from coal while confirming its position as the global leader in clean energy,
leading the way on solar PV, wind power, hydropower and nuclear
© OECD/IEA 2017
 China becomes the world’s largest oil importer

China oil demand growth by sector China passenger car stock

4 500
mb/d

Conventional

Million
Cars
400 Electric
3
Trucks 300
2
200
1 Petrochemicals
100

Other
2016 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2016 2040

China becomes the world’s largest oil importer by around 2020; air quality policies could
lead to a plateau or peak in oil demand, but oil security remains a challenge
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 LNG ushers in a new global gas order

Global gas trade

1 230 bcm in 2040

706 bcm in 2016

59% shipped by LNG

39% shipped by LNG

© OECD/IEA 2017
 LNG ushers in a new global gas order

Global gas trade

Gas exporters
1 230 bcm in 2040

706 bcm in 2016

US Africa
& Canada

Middle
East Africa
59% shipped by LNG
Australia
Russia 39% shipped byUS
LNG& Russia Middle
& Caspian Australia Canada Other & Caspian East Other

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 LNG ushers in a new global gas order

Global gas trade

Gas importers
exporters
1 230 bcm in 2040

706 bcm in 2016 China

China
Europe US Africa
Japan
& Canada
Europe & Korea

Middle Japan
East Africa & Korea
59% shipped by LNG
Other Asia
Australia
Russia 39% shipped byUS
LNG& Russia Middle
Other Other Other
& Caspian Australia Canada Other Asia & Caspian East Other

Asia’s growing gas import requirements are largely met by LNG,

with exports from the US accelerating a shift towards a more flexible, liquid global market
© OECD/IEA 2017
 China leads the push for clean energy technologies

China’s share of global investment, 2017-2040

Electric vehicles

Wind

Solar PV

Nuclear

Energy efficiency

10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

China is the leading global investor in power generation and end-use sectors; its emphasis
on clean energy investment is a driver of the global clean energy transition
© OECD/IEA 2017
 Conclusions
 Structural shifts in the economy and the clean energy transition change quantity &
quality of energy demand growth; China moves global energy markets – once again

 China is set first to become the world‘s largest oil importer, and then the largest oil
consumer; future oil security hinges on supply- and demand-side policies

 Natural gas helps to replace coal in the energy mix and soon makes China the world’s
largest gas importer, with strong implications for global LNG markets

 China remains the world’s largest investor in clean energy; its success in delivering on a
clean energy transition is critical for its own as well as global environmental goals

 As China joined the IEA family in 2015 and partnership grows, the WEO-2017 China
Outlook sheds light on China’s energy challenges & opportunities in a global context
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 iea.org/weo

© OECD/IEA 2017