All Papers Pattaya, Thailand PDF

SILVER PRICE PREDICTION USING NONLINEAR
AUTOREGRESSION NEURAL NETWORK FOR THAILAND SILVER

JEWELRY INDUSTRY
1
CHANIDA PHITTAYANON, 2VICHAI RUNGREUNGANUN
1,2
Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok,
1518 Pracharat 1 Rd, Bangsue, Bangkok 10800, Thailand
E-mail: ajchanidap@hotmail.com
Abstract - This paper presents silver price prediction models for Thailand silver jewelry industry. The models are based on
nonlinear autoregression neural network (NAR). The models use historical silver and gold prices as the only time-series
data. Therefore, these models are suitable to be used by the manufacturers in Thailand silver jewelry industry because it only
relies on the silver and gold historical prices. Specifically, we compare the accuracy of the NAR models with only silver
data, and the model with gold and silver time-series data. The results show that the model with gold and silver time-series
- -
data give much better accuracy, e.g. MSE of 5.4015 × 10 5 and 4.0139 × 10 5 for silver data only and gold-and-silver data,
respectively. Using both silver and gold price data is over 25.6% improvement over using only silver price. This is because
the gold and silver prices are highly correlated. Consider both of them together as the time-series data provide more
complete information to the NAR models.
I. INTRODUCTION gained a lot of attention. Recently, machine learning

models can give better prediction result than time
Jewelry industry is a large part of Thailand economic series approaches. Another big advantage for using
according to Thammaruaksa[1]. Supacharasai et machine learning model is that after the initial
al.[2] reported that precious metal price takes a large development, the SMEs users need minimal training
part in the jewelry cost structure, which is and take small time using the model to forecast
approximately 30% of the production cost. A study of material prices.
Thai gems and jewelry industry by Somboonwiwat et
al. [3] found that the jewelry manufactures suffer A number of studies of precious metal prices have
from fluctuation of raw material prices. This price been done using various statistical models. For
fluctuation imposes more impact to the jewelry example, Bandyopadhyay et al. [7] studied gold price
industry during 2006 and 2014, when the gold and using ARIMA model. Keerativibool et al. [8] studied
silver prices were changed rapidly, e.g. [4], [5]. It is gold ornament selling price using Holt’s exponential
indicated by Sutthichan et al. [6] in their study of smoothing method. And, Shafiee et al. [9] has
factors influencing competitiveness of jewelry summarized global gold market and gold price
industry that price forecasting ability is the third forecasting.
highest impact factor. Similarly, a number of studies has been done on
In order to the small and medium jewelry forecasting silver prices. For example, Mitra et al.
manufacturers (SMEs) to manage risk of fluctuations [10] used ARIMA model to predict silver price from
in precious metal prices, they rely on naive or August 2007 to January 2011 with ARIMA(0,1,1)
statistical price forecast models. Some examples of and ARIMA(1,1,1) models could provide R-squared
naive forecasting are assuming last year’s or last value of 0.996 and mean absolute percentage error
month’s demand value will occur again this month, or (MAPE) of 1.848%. Jongadsayakul et al. [11], [12]
assuming a fix percentage increase in the demand studied silver prices in future exchange market using
value. These naive forecasting assumptions are easy GARH technique.
and widely used by jewelry SMEs. And, some While these statistical techniques have been widely
examples of statistical price forecasting are fitting studied and used in industrial, new modern
curve through historical demand quantities with techniques such as time-series forecasting with
seasonality, trend data and moving average. These machine learning that is based on supervised learning
statistical forecasting are more difficult and time method have limited used in jewelry manufacturers,
consuming for jewelry SMEs. e.g. [13].
On the other hand, the investors in future and
exchange market generally use traditional time-series In this work, we use supervised machine learning
forecasting models that can be customized and fine- techniques to develop a price forecasting models for
tuned, such models are too complicated and too much Silver metal. Specifically, we use nonlinear
time consuming to be used by small and medium autoregression model (NAR) [14]. We develop two
businesses. Machine learning forecasting model has NAR models. The first model considers only silver
Proceedings of ISER 139th International Conference, Pattaya, Thailand, 06th - 07th July, 2018
1
Silver Price Prediction using Nonlinear Autoregression Neural Network for Thailand Silver Jewelry Industry
price, while the second model considers both gold neural network time series tool can be used to predict
and silver prices. series of y(t) given d past values. The neural network
is setup as follow. The y(t) are the daily gold and
II. METHODOLOGY silver prices, the delay periods vary as d =
7,14,30,60, and the number of hidden neurons vary
The nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NAR) as 5, 10, and 20 layers. An example of NAR structure
is a recurrent dynamic network with feedback of d = 30 and h = 10 hidden layers is shown in
connections from several layers of the network [15]. Figure7. The NAR network training was done using
The definition of the NAR model is: Levenberg-Marquardt method [16], [17] by randomly
y(t) = f( y(t − 1), y(t − 2), … , y(t − n_y) ), (1) dividing the data into 70%, 15%, and 15% for
where the next-step value of the dependent variable training, validation, and testing, respectively.
y(t) is only regressed on the previous values of the As an example of the training performance of the
dependent variable y(t − i) , where i = 1,2, … , n . NAR models with only silver data with d = 30and
We can implement NAR model using feed-forward h = 10, the training took 12th iterations with the best
neural network with tanh() activation function in the mean square error of 301.8 at iteration 13th. The
hidden layer and linear activation function in the results of the NAR network training are shown in
output layer. The diagram of the resulting NAR Table 1 and Figure3, Figure4, Figure5, and Figure 6.
network is shown in Figure1.
Figure3: Structure of the NAR models using only silver price

data.
Figure1: Diagram of a feed-forward neural network

implementing NAR model.
III. NAR MODEL FOR SILVER PRICE

PREDICTION
In this part, we perform machine learning with time-

series data of the gold and silver prices. We obtained
the FOREX daily gold and silver prices from [4] and
[5], respectively. The data is collected daily from
January 1st, 2000 to October 31th, 2017. Therefore,
there are 6,512 data points as shown in Figure2. Figure4: Error Histogram of the NAR models using only
Since, the gold and silver prices are highly correlated, silver price data.
but they are orders of magnitudes different between
them (proximately 62.38 times, by average).
Therefore, we normalized both price data to their
maximum values.
Figure5: Autocorrelation of the Error of the NAR models

using only silver price data.
Figure2: Normalized values of gold and silver prices.
We develop and compare two models to predict the

silver metal price. The first model only uses the
historical silver price data, and the second model uses
both of gold and silver price data together.
Table 1. ANN training result of only silver prices with d = 30
Both machine learning models use here are based on
and h = 10.
nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) [14]. This artificial
2
Figure 6: Response of output of silver price shows very good

Figure9: Autocorrelation of the Error of the NAR models
match between actual and predicted values using only silver
using both gold and silver price data.
prices data. The upper plot shows the output and targets of the
silver prices. The lower plot shows the error between the target
and the output values . Noted that the silver price data is
normalized to its maximum value .
Another example of the training performance of the

NAR models with both gold and silver data with the
same configuration of d = 30and h = 10 as shown in
Figure7. The training took 16th iterations with the best
mean square error of 3.586 × 10 at iteration 10th.
The results of the NAR network training is shown in Table 2. ANN training result of the gold and silver prices with
Table 2, Figure8, Figure9, and Figure10. Using this d = 30 and h = 10.
NAR network, one can easily predict single or multi
step-ahead prediction of gold and silver prices.
Figure7: Structure of the NAR silver price model using both

gold and silver price data.
Figure10: Response of output of silver price shows very good

match between actual and predicted values using both gold and
silver price data. The upper plot shows the output and targets
of the silver prices. The lower plot shows the error between the
target and the output values . Noted that the silver price data is
normalized to its maximum value .
Figure8: Error Histogram of the NAR models using both gold
and silver price data.
IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
The MSE performance of the NAR models with d = 7, 14, 30, and 60 and h = 5, 10, and 20 with only silver
price as the time-series data are shown in Table 3.
Hidden Layer, h
5 10 20
3
7 4.1670×10-5 4.1778×10-5 4.1830×10-5

Delay periods, d
14 4.3820×10-5 4.3596×10-5 4.2664×10-5
30 4.2314×10-5 4.1956×10-5 4.2306×10-5
60 4.2487×10-5 4.3075×10-5 3.9949×10-5

Table 3The MSE of a step- ahead prediction using the NAR models with only silver price
Similarly, the MSE performance of NAR models with both gold and silver prices as the time-series data are
shown in Table 4. The MSE performance of the NAR model with both gold and silver price as the time-series
data can give better performance that the model with only silver price data. However, this improvement is
mainly due to the variation in the sampling among the training, validating and testing data set.
Hidden Layer, h
5 10 20
7 4.3589×10-5 4.2591×10-5 4.2247×10-5

Delay periods, d
14 4.0843×10-5 4.0384×10-5 4.1720×10-5
30 4.1839×10-5 4.2745×10-5 3.9951×10-5
60 4.1761×10-5 4.1164×10-5 4.2370×10-5

Table 4The MSE of a step- ahead prediction using the NAR models with both gold and silver price
CONCLUSION [3] T. Somboonwiwat, “Model logistics and supply chain

management in gemstone,” 2008.
[4] USAGOLD, “Gold Prices,” Daily Gold Prices - FOREX
In the time-series machine learning analysis of the Price History, 2017. [Online]. Available:
silver price can give a very good performance of http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/goldhistory.php.
MSE in the order of 10-5 with R2 value of 0.999. This [5] USAGOLD, “Silver Prices,” Daily Silver Prices - FOREX
high performance does not require large model in Price History, 2017. [Online]. Available:
http://www.usagold.com/reference/prices/silverhistory.php.
order to achieve this level of accuracy. This is [6] S. Sutthichan and M. Suteeraroj, “Factors Affected of
demonstrated in the Table 3 and Table 4 that Competitive Advantage of Gems and Jewelry Export
increasing the delay periods and number of hidden Industries in Thailand,” Nakhon Phanom University Journal,
vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 39–45, Aug. 2012.
layer would not result in better performance in the
[7] G. Bandyopadhyay, “Gold Price Forecasting Using ARIMA
step-ahead prediction. Model,” Journal of Advanced Management Science, pp. 117–
Therefore, only a simple small NAR model can be 121, 2016.
used to predict silver price. This small model is [8] W. Keerativibool, “Forecasting Model of Monthly Gold
Ornament Selling Prices,” NU. International Journal of
suitable for the manufacturer in the Thailand silver Science, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 65–81, Jun. 2013.
jewelry industry to use in their supply chain [9] S. Shafiee and E. Topal, “An overview of global gold market
management. The result of this work can help jewelry and gold price forecasting,” Resources Policy, vol. 35, no. 3,
manufacture to estimate and predict the future price pp. 178–189, Sep. 2010.
of their raw material. This could help lower their cost [10] Mitra and A. K. Jalan, “Prediction of Silver Price in Volatile
Market (USD) - based on Auto Regression Integrated
of inventory. Moving Average,” in Proceeding of the 2014 International
Conference on Computing, Communication & Manufacturing,
REFERENCES MCKVIE College India, 2014, pp. 119–130.
[11] W. Jongadsayakul, “Determinants of Silver Futures Price
Volatility: Evidence from the Thailand Futures Exchange,”
[1] S. Thammaruaksa, W. Saneha, and S. Apirajkamol, “Thai
The International Journal of Business and Finance Research,
Gems and Jewelry Industries Census Project,” University of
vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 81–87, 2015.
the Thai Chamber of Commerce Journal, vol. 30, no. 1, 2010.
[12] W. Jongadsayakul, “Determinants of the Silver Futures Price
[2] S. Supacharasai, “Chapter 4 Gems and Jewelry Industries,”
Volatility: The Case of Thailand Futures Exchange,” in
in Industrial Competitiveness Enhancement Project under
Global Conference on Business & Finance Proceedings, Hilo,
International Industrial cooperative Framework, Thai APEC
United States, 2015, vol. 10, pp. 149–155.
Study Centre, Thammasat University, 2003, p. 87.
[13] C. Bourne, “Forecasting with Machine Learning Techniques,”
Cardinal Path - Web Analytics and Data Driven Marketing,
4
07-Dec-2016. [Online]. Available: Nonlinear Theory and Applications (NOLTA), 2005, pp.
http://www.cardinalpath.com/forecasting-with-machine- 606–609.
learning-techniques/. [16] K. Levenberg, “A method for the solution of certain non-
[14] S. A. Billings, Nonlinear System Identification: NARMAX linear problems in least squares,” Quarterly Journal of
Methods in the Time, Frequency, and Spatio-Temporal Applied Mathmatics, vol. II, no. 2, pp. 164–168, 1944.
Domains, 1 edition. Chichester, West Sussex, United [17] D. Marquardt, “An Algorithm for Least-Squares Estimation
Kingdom: Wiley, 2013. of Nonlinear Parameters,” Journal of the Society for
[15] M. Espinoza, J. A. Suykens, and B. De Moor, “Short term Industrial and Applied Mathematics, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 431–
chaotic time series prediction using symmetric LS-SVM 441, Jun. 1963.
regression,” in Proc. of the 2005 International Symposium on
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5
FLEXIBLE TRANSPARENT ELECTRODEFABRICATION BY USING
COPPER NANOWIRES
1
N H TRAN, 2D V THINH, 3X L TRINH, 4H M HOANG, 5H C KIM
1,2,3,4,5
High Safety Vehicle Core Technology Research Center, Department of Mechanical and Automotive Engineering, Inje
University, Gimhae-si, South Korea
E-mail: 5mechkhc@inje.ac.kr
Abstract - Low-cost, fast and scalable fabrication and patterning methods for copper nanowires (CuNWs) - based flexible
transparent electrodes are needed to make CuNWs popularly in various application such as flexible optoelectronic devices,
wearable devices, and electronic skins. In this thesis, coating and patterning for CuNWs FTEs by a combination of dip
cleaning and pressure-assist lithography was studied. Without dip cleaning steps that makes bonding between nanowires and
original glass substrate weaker, the lithography patterning could not be achieved. CuNWs in pattern line are strongly adhered
to the substrate as those nanowires are embedded in substrate's surface, result in a simple and fast one-step transferring and
patterning. Because cleaning process play an importance, irreplaceable role in this process, a numerous of experiments were
carried out to investigate all parameters completely. Finally, the process was applied in making a flexible transparent
touchscreen. On the other hand, this will not the only application of this fabrication and patterning process thank to its
feature of damage free to the final flexible substrate.
I. INTRODUCTION nitrogen/hydrogen-filled oven to reduce copper oxide

to copper and clean remain ink. Likewise, the
During recent years, because of applications in conventional photolithography patterning process
optoelectronic devices such asorganic solar cell, involves a number of steps and expensive chemical
touch screen, electronic skin, the demand of (photoresist) [2,3]. Another well-known patterning
transparent electrode film has been increased rapidly. technique for Cu NWs electrodes is laser ablation but
A high quality transparent flexible electrode (TFE) it require high setup cost and time-consuming for
requires a coating layer that is highly conductive, large area scanning. Therefore, a simple, cost-
nearly transparent anddurable. ITO, silver nanowires effective fabrication and patterning technique forCu
are two well-known materials to fabricate high NWshas been a challenge for many researchers. In
performance electrodes. However, ITO-based this paper, a complete process from synthesis
electrodes are expensive, brittle and not eco-friendly. material, storage, fabrication and pattern a flexible
Similarly, silver is also high-priced and scarce. transparent copper nanowire was introduced.
Therefore, copper nanowires (Cu NWs), which not
only havehigh conductivity as silver nanowires but II. EXPERIMENTAL METHOD
also can be synthesized at low cost, have attracted
many researchers as an alternative material to ITO In a typical experiment, our fabrication of patterned
and silver nanowires. flexible Cu NWs electrodes includes 4 steps, as
The current fabrication techniques, as well as shown in Fig.1. First, Cu NWs were synthesized via a
patterning processes for Cu NWelectrodesis not suit modified ethylenediamine-based method. Next, Cu
to be used in large scale. For example, among the NWs was dissolved in a polyvinylpyrrolidone-based
most common coating methods of Cu NWs, vacuum solution to make coating ink. Then Meyer rod was
filtration only applies for small-scale while spin applied to spread the copper nanowire ink solution
coating wastes a huge amount of material. Especially, onto glass substrate. After cleaning the coated
the most effective fabrication technique that using substrate by using low costchemicals, the nanowires
Meyer rod and nitrocellulose ink is expensive, layer was clamped and was transferred to a
complicate, and toxic[1]. Above all, these fabrication polyethylene terephthalate (PET) substrate and
methods require post-treatment process, which place patterned simultaneously.
the electrodes in a high temperature,
Figure 1: A typical cleaning cycle for as-coated Cu NWs films
6
Flexible Transparent Electro-Defabrication by using Copper Nanowires
2.1 Material and equipment A rubber sheet was put on top of PET layer.Finally, a
Copper (II) sulfate pentahydrate and sodium pressure at 70 – 90 GPa was applied.
hydroxide beads were purchased from Daejung
Chemical & Metal (South Korea). Ethylenediamine III. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
(EDA, E1521), 35 wt. % hydrazine (N2H4) in water,
isopropyl alcohol (IPA, W292912), N-diethyl Before and after post-treatment process
hydroxylamine (DEHA, 471593) and Due to the appearance of PVP in coating ink, Cu
polyvinylpyrrolidone (PVP, MW = 30 000 and NWswas able to spread out uniformly over the
360000) were procured from Sigma-Aldrich (USA). substrate without aggregation, as shown in Fig 2a.
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) with 50 µm However, PVP covers nanowires and prevent them
thickness was obtained from KAIST (Daejeon, South from connecting to each otherError! Reference
Korea). Meyer rods of sizes #12, 16, 20 and 24 were source not found.. In addition, during the washing
supplied by RD Specialties©. A commercial copper nanowires process, a part of them was
aluminum foil rollhas the thickness of 16 µm. And a oxidized. Hence, the PVP and copper oxide must be
heating hydraulic machinewas purchased from removed to make the as-coated film conductive.
DaejinHydraulic Machinery Co.,Ltd. In previous reported studies, acetic acid dipping was
one of the most common technique to remove film
2.2 Transparent electrode preparation former and copper oxide. However, when we tried to
Copper nanowires were synthesized via EDA-assisted plunge the as-coated film into acetic acid to remove
method of Duong et al.[4]A 2.5 wt.% PVP-based PVP and copper oxide, the Cu NWs layer deformed
solution in IPA was prepared. After being washed and floated away partly, as indicated in Fig. 2b.
repeatedly, the Cu NWs was mixed with an amount Among the solvents for PVP, ethanol is very
of PVP-basedsolution (from 0.4 to 0.7 mL). Next, the inexpensive, safe and have a relatively low boiling
mixture was vortexed to create a homogenous ink and temperature, 78°C. When the preheated coated
was coated on a glass substrate by using Meyer rod. filmwas put into ethanol, PVP slowly dissolved and
The substrate was left in normal atmosphere to be swept away. Thanks to the low viscosity and low
dried naturally. boiling temperature of ethanol, Cu NWs network was
The cleaning process of coatedsubstrate includes 2 prevented from being wiped away and deformed.
main steps. Firstly, the copper nanowires layer was After that, acetic acid, which is also low cost and eco-
placed on a hotplate which heated at 150°C for 5 friendly, was applied to remove both the residue of
minutes and then was dipped in ethanol for 2 seconds. PVP and copper oxide.
This step was repeated 3-9 times and then the slide As Fig. 2c shows, after cleaning process, the glass
was allowed to cool to room temperature. Secondly, slide coated with Cu NWs was conductive and more
Cu NWs network was dipped in acetic acid for 2 transparent. To understand effect of cleaning step
seconds and was left at room temperature for self- with ethanol on Cu NWs electrode’s conductivity, the
drying. This second step was also repeated five times. number of cleaning cycle from 6 to 15 was
investigated. It’s clear from Figure 3 that the when
2.3 Transfer & Patterning the Cu NWs layer was wash with more time, the
The as-cleaned Cu NWs electrode was placed on sheet resistance of electrode reduce significantly.
acleaned glass slide. On the other hand, hydraulic However, after 15 times of cycle, the cleaning
press machine was preheated to 80 - 120 °C. A solutions started to wash the Cu NWs away so that
patterned mask, which wasmade of an aluminum foil surface resistance increased. Therefore, the number of
and was patternedby laser cutting, was placed cleaning with ethanol was fixed at 12 times as the
between the Cu NWs network and the PET substrate. most effective one.
Figure 2: Cu NWs network on the glass slide a) after coating by a Meyer rod, b) after dipping in acetic acid, and c) after being
c) treated with ethanol and acetic acid, respectively.
7
Figure 3: The relation between the number of cleaning cycle with ethanol and sheet resistance of Cu NWs electrode
A combination of transferring and patterning embedded in it due to high pressure. After removing
Cu NWs was cleaned from coating ink and oxide and the pressure, PET layer returns to its original shape
loosely lay on top of the glass surface. Any touch can and pull out the contacted Cu NWs area with it.
easily sweep the Cu NWs from the substrate. On the To determine the accuracy of our combination
other hand, PET film, which is a flexible transparent technique, 10 lines that have a width of 500 µm were
substrate is soft and have a relatively low heat- patterned on an aluminum foil by using laser cutting.
deflection temperature under high pressure, Fig. 5 shows a typical image of Cu NWs channel
62°C.Thanks to these behaviours, by carefully which is fabricated by that mask. The average width
placing a PET film on top of the Cu NWs coated of Cu NWs line is 394±11 µm. Because there is
glass substrate and apply heat and high pressure, Cu always a gap near the edge of patterned area in mask
NWs on the glass substrate can betransferred and layer, the width of Cu NWs line is smaller than the
embedded in PET surface. We discovered that if we one of patterned area in the mask. The difference
put a patterned mask between the Cu NWs network between Cu NWs line width and pattern width
and PET film, the Cu NWs can be transferred and depends on the thickness and hardness of mask layer,
patterned at the same time. Fig.4 shows the principle as well as the applied pressure. In our case, the gap is
of our combination technique. When a pressure is about 50±5.5µm.However, this problem could be
applied, the rubber layer is compressed. Because of easily countered by adding an offset about 50-60 µm
the vacant holes in the patterned mask, rubber layer from each side of the original circuit so that the final
presses the PET to touch the Cu NWs network. The circuit width will match to the design one.
Cu NWs area that contacts PET layer will be
Figure 4: Principle of our combination technique for Cu NWs electrode
Figure 5: Cu NWs line after being transferred to PET
8
CONCLUSION Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry

of Education (2017R1D1A1B03029074) and the
In this work, a full fabrication process of patterned MSIT (Ministry of Science and ICT), Korea, under
flexible transparent Cu NWs-based electrodeswas the Global IT Talent support program (IITP-2017-01-
demonstrated. Our method not only require low cost 01797) supervised by the IITP (Institute for
equipment, but also is easy to follow and be applied Information and Communication Technology
in industry. In details, a new way of removing film Promotion
former and copper oxide in the coated Cu NWs film
was introduce. This technique uses ethanol, acetic REFERENCES
acid and a hot plate, which are very common and
cheap, in the meantime it also reduced post-treatment [1] Ye S, Rathmell A R, Stewart I E, Ha Y-C, Wilson A R, Chen
Z and Wiley B J 2014 A Rapid Synthesis of High Aspect
time remarkably. Above all, by applied a mask and a
Ratio Copper Nanowires for High-Performance Transparent
rubber layer, the transferring and patterning step can Conducting Films Chem. Commun.50 2562–4.
be merged into one. Our discovery reduces [2] Takahashi T, Takei K, Ho J C, Chueh Y L, Fan Z and Javey
significantly both fabrication time and energy. A 2009 Monolayer resist for patterned contact printing of
aligned nanowire arrays J. Am. Chem. Soc.131 2102–3.
Moreover, the result showed that our combination
[3] Ahn Y, Lee H, Lee D and Lee Y 2014 Highly conductive and
technique has high accuracy and it can be applied in flexible silver nanowire-based microelectrodes on
fabricate flexible transparent circuit. biocompatible hydrogel ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces6
18401–7.
[4] Duong T H, Tran N H and Kim H C 2017 Low cost
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
fabrication of flexible transparent electrodes using copper
nanowires Thin Solid Films622 17–22.
This research was supported by Basic Science
Research Program through the National Research
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9
INVESTIGATION OF THE REACTIONS OF SOME IMPORTANT
WEEDS TO TEMPERATURE AND CO2 INCREASES
1
NIHAT TURSUN, 2İLHAN ÜREMİŞ, 3OLCAY BOZDOĞAN, 4M. NEDIM DOĞAN
1,3
University of Inonu, Agricultural Faculty, Plant Protection Department, Malatya/TURKEY
2
University of MKU, Agricultural Faculty, Plant Protection Department, Hatay/TURKEY
4
University of ADU, Agricultural Faculty, Plant Protection Department, Aydın/TURKEY
E-mail: ntursun@hotmail.com
Abstract - The world has been in constant change since its formation. These changes, which naturally started out in the
beginning, were thought to make human life more convenient. As a result of human activities, some changes that have begun
to affect the planet have begun to adversely affect us. The rapid increase in the human population brought with it industrial
activities, which resulted in devastating changes in the earth's ecosystem. One of the most important changes in the world is
the global warming caused by the greenhouse effect, which is a result of the increase of carbon dioxide (CO2). Parallel to the
increase in CO2 every day, the temperature increase keeps its place on the agenda. Global climate change is now a global
issue. Climate change is the most devastating effect on biological diversity. Studies was carried out in a fully automated
four-roomed greenhouse at Agricultural Faculty of Inonu University, in order to determine the reactions of some weeds
(Amaranthus retroflexus L., Portulaca oleracea L., Physalis angulata L. and Sorghum halepense (L.) Pers.) to different CO2
concentrations and different temperatures. Experiments were conducted in a randomized parcel replicated 4 at different
temperatures (26 0C / 16 0C, 29 0C / 19 0C, 32 0C / 22 0C, 35 0C / 25 0C) and different concentrations of CO2 (400 ppm, 600
ppm, 800 ppm, 1000 ppm). As a result of the studies, while the lowest values for plant height, wet weight, dry weight, root
length, root wet weight and root dry weights of weeds were taken from 400 ppm CO2 and 26 0C / 16 0C, the highest values
were obtained from 1000 ppm CO2 and 35 0C / 25 0C from the temperature. As a result, CO2 increase leads to atmospheric
temperature increase and temperature increase leads to decrease in crop yields. In parallel with the increase in CO2, it is
expected that the increase in environmental temperature will negatively affect the plants and agriculture even if there are
some positive developments in the plants.
Keywords - Some Weeds, Temperature, Carbone Dioxide, Plant Development
10
THE EFFECTS OF FLAMING AND MECHANICAL CONTROL
METHODS, WHICH ARE ALTERNATIVE TO HERBICIDES, ON
WEED CONTROL AT SUNFLOWER
1
FURKAN UYAR, 2NIHAT TURSUN
1,2
Univerity of Inonu, Agricultural Faculty, Plant Protection Department, Malatya, Turkey
E-mail: ntursun@hotmail.com
Abstract - The use of propane flaming in combination with cultivation could be a potential alternative control method in
combating weeds of sunflower. In this study, it was aimed to determine the effect of flaming and mechanical control on
weeds in sunflower production. Field experiments were conducted at the experimental field of Agriculture Faculty of Inonu
University, Malatya/Turkey to determine the level of weed control and the response of sunflower seed yield and its
components to flaming and cultivation using a weed flamer in 2017. The treatments included weed-free control, weedy
season-long and different combinations of broadcast flaming and mechanical cultivation (inter-row). The flaming application
was applied once in the 2-4 leaf (V2-V4) period of the sunflower. Propane doses were 60 kg ha−1 for broadcast flaming
treatments. The mechanical application is carried out once in the period of 2-4 leaves (V2-V4) and 4-6 leaves (V4-V6It was
also applied twice in the period of 2-4 leaves (V2-V4) and 10-12 leaves (V10-V12), twice in the period of 4-6 leaves (V4-
V6) and 10-12 leaves (V10-V12). At the end of the experiment, besides the effects of sunflower applications on weeds, the
capitulum diameter, plant height, thousand-kernel weight and yield values of the sunflower were determined. The highest
sunflower yield was obtained from weed-free control (3916.8 kg/ha), followed by twice cultivation application (V2-V4 ve
V10-V12) (3862.8 kg/ha). The highest capitulum diameter was obtained from the twice cultivation application plot. The
lowest yield and yield components were observed in the weedy control. It may be suggested that the application of
cultivation in the weed control of the sunflower can increase the yield, thus may be used especially in organic agriculture.
Keywords - Flaming, Cultivation, Sunflower, Weed Control
11
EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE
APPLICATIONS ON THE AROMATIC COMPOUNDS OF STEVIA
REBAUDIANA BERTONI AND MELISA OFFICINALIS L. LEAVES
1
AYŞE OZLEM TURSUN, 2HACER GURKAN, 3ISA TELCI
1
University of Inonu, Battalgazi Vocational School, Malatya/Turkey
2
University of Inonu, Engineering Faculty, Food Engineering Department, Malatya/Turkey
3
University of SDU, Agricultural Faculty, Department of Field Crops, Isparta/Turkey
Abstract - Depending on the greenhouse gases coming from the industrialization and settlement areas, the environment is
rapidly polluted in large quantities and the problems on the global scale are increasing. Particularly, CO2, which is an
important share, in the greenhouse gases and in the global warming, and the increasing temperature due to this, also reveals
some positive and negative features in plants. Medicinal and aromatic plants, Melissa officinalis L. and Stevia rebaudiana
Bertoni have an important role in human health. Studies was carried out in a fully automated greenhouse in order to
determine the response of aromatic compounds of M. officinalis and S. rebaudiana leaves to different CO2 concentrations
and different temperatures. Experiments were conducted at different temperatures (26 0C/16 0C, 29 0C/19 0C, 32 0C/22 0C,
35 0C/25 0C) and concentrations of CO2 (400 ppm, 600 ppm, 800 ppm, 1000 ppm). As the temperature and CO2
concentration increase, while all other aromatic compounds (ketons, aldehydes, esters, alcohols, terpenes, miscellaneous
compounds) except for hydrocarbons are increasing in M. officinalis; ketones, alcohols and miscellaneous compounds
quantities shown decrease in S. rebaudiana. Another compounds in S. rebaudiana shown an alteration. As a result of studies,
we can conclude that climate change may increase the aromatic compounds of some plants positively, while others may have
a negative effect.
Keywords - Stevia rebaudiana, Melisa officinalis, Aromatic Compounds, CO2, Temperature
12
COURSE INTEGRATION FOR AUTHENTIC PROBLEM BASED
LEARNING: A CASE OF BAHRAIN POLYTECHNIC MARKETING
MAJOR
1
PHILIPPE VANDE WIELE, 2DARREN MORRIS
1,2
Bachelor Business Marketing, Bahrain Polytechnic, Kingdom of Bahrain
E-mail: 1philippe.vandewiele@polytechnic.bh, 2darren.morris@polytechnic.bh
Abstract - With the development of employability as a primary mandate, Bahrain Polytechnic has adopted a Teaching and
Learning philosophy of Problem Based Learning. In adherence to the institutional espoused brand values of excellence,
innovation and learning the faculty of the Bachelor of Business Marketing continues to regionally pioneer creative
pedagogical practices in the pursuit of the program’s fit for purpose. This paper reports on the practice of integrating various
subdisciplines of marketing in an authentic problem based learning environment, the experiences of the participating faculty
and its intended effect on the learners. A descriptive case study is developed based on institutional course documentation that
builds the program and impressions by the faculty members with regards to design and delivery of the course. This paper
outlines the intentions of the chosen approach towards the development of work ready graduates whereby the faculty reports
various positive experiences of the approach as well as obstacles concerning course design, delivery and the learner
experience. Future research aims to compare the intentions of the approach with learners’ perception.
Keywords - Problem Based Learning, Course Integration, Authentic Learning, and Employability.
I. INTRODUCTION working and living [9] to name a few. Over the last
two decades, HE has globally witnessed significant
The 21stCentury has ushered in a variety of new upsets of the status quo with respect to its address of
economic and societal realities in the context of the what seems a persistent mismatch of HE graduates’
knowledge economy and the knowledge society. The competence and industry requirements, hence
emergence of the notion of knowledge as pertinent in challenging – among other things - the standard
the 21st Century has solidified the shift away from the knowledge transmission Teaching and Learning
resource based organizations towards a focus on (T&L) approaches.
knowledge production and leveraging for competitive
advantage. From a societal point of view, the main After sketching a theoretical framework of T&L
challenge lies in access to knowledge and how this attributes that are reported in the HE literature to
affects the future prosperity at communal, state and favorably address work-readiness in the next section,
regional level. In this newly emerged world of this paper presents a case study on the inception of an
knowledge, higher education (HE) faces numerous innovative T&L approach at a relatively young HE
challenges among which questions from external project of educational reform in the Kingdom of
stakeholders around fitness for purpose and Bahrain towards employability development by
accountability [1,2,3] since Higher Education reporting on the evolution, success and challenges of
Institutions (HEIs) are expected to contribute to the approach. The case study is built based on
societal and economic development [4]. This is qualitative interviews with all four faculty members
nested in the larger debate around the ‘raison d’etre’ teaching on the program and the program manager
of HE that opposes on the one hand HE for the who will in the remainder of the write up be referred
schooling of the mind and on the other hand the to as F and PM respectively where appropriate.
narrow focus of HE on the development of the
workforce relevant for organizational demands of II. FRAMING THEORIES
today. The term employability has emerged as one of
the primary outcomes that HEIs should address with Various T&L dimensions have been reported to be
regards to its learners in order for them to conducive to preparing HE learners for the world of
successfully navigate the new economic and societal work. Such T&L approaches are argued to be learner
realities of the 21st Century. Even though according centered [10], proximal and authentic [11],
to the current literature the construct of employability collaborative, activity based and reflective [12]. In
remains elusive in terms of a definition [5], it other words, learning environments should place the
certainly concerns the capacity of individuals to be learners central to the learning process as close as
compatible with what is sought after in the world of possible to a real-world context where various
work of today and tomorrow spanning various hard participants work together to apply knowledge and
and soft competencies [6], personal dispositions with learning with a critical disposition around their own
respect to life-long learning and career management and others’ participation. The learner centeredness,
[7], intellectual virtue [8] and ways of thinking, whereby the responsibility of learning is placed on
13
Course Integration for Authentic Problem Based Learning: A Case of Bahrain Polytechnic Marketing Major
the learner through teachers’ facilitation, strokes very further designed by anchoring the learning around a
well with the new career realities such as the protean series of authentic projects that form the context of a
and boundaryless career [13] whereby the onus fully student-centered learning environment which
lies with the individual. With respect to the action gradually increases in proximity to the actual world
based and reflective T&L dimensions, the literature of work. “ The conception of this approach comes out
around professionalization echoes similar notions of working our way backwards from our experience
such as the need for an ability to continuously learn, with the final semester industry project, where we
evaluate and make sense of practice [14]. The treat our learners as associate consultants so that they
collaborative aspect is pervasive in demands by experience something more meaningful than a
industry for individuals that can effectively function traditional internship.”(F) The final semester industry
in teams and develop productive relationships with project forms the capstone course of the degree
various stakeholders in a professional context. whereby learners in teams of two are assigned an ill-
Finally, authentic learning settings in high proximity structured brief of a marketing problem from a real-
to the world of work reflects learning on the job to life client (i.e. a collaborating industry partner). The
nurture professional expertise as well as experience, teams are assigned to the clients in the way a
both often used as proxies for competence in consulting firm would manage accounts including
recruitment contexts. On the intersection of authentic clear objectives and deliverables at the end of a - in
and collaborative learning Galán-Muros et al [15] this case 17 week - project. Learners are introduced to
report on the value of industry-HEI working the client as associate consultants and are expected to
relationships in both the educational and the research conduct themselves in a professional manner in the
domain. full sense of the profession. This spans dress code,
professional engagement as a representative of the
III. THE CASE OF BAHRAIN POLYTECHNIC Firm, accounting for working hours with resulting
BACHELOR OF BUSINESS MARKETING outputs, being subjected to trainee evaluation sessions
by the Firm, peer to peer exchanges and finally a
Bahrain Polytechnic (BP), the HE flagship project of fully-fledged solution pitch to the client. Institutional
educational reforms in the Kingdom of Bahrain, was research has indicated not only the general T&L
established in 2008 to address the development of the approach of the institution to have high potential to
required human capital to drive the wider Bahrain be conducive to employability [17], but found the
2030 Vision. Among various diplomas and approach on the industry project to be significantly
undergraduate programs, BP offers an undergraduate transformational and highly effective in addressing
business program that consist of two years of core learners’ employability and professional identity [18].
business studies with an additional two years of These findings generated impetus for further strategic
specialization courses in various majors which design of the program towards fully integrating the
includes Marketing. Over the last 6 years the faculty ‘Firm’ into the entire learner journey. “The
of the Marketing Major has incrementally developed exceptionally impactful solutions of some of the
a rather unique approach to addressing BP’s mission projects, strong endorsements of industry partners
of producing “professional and enterprising graduates and in various cases immediate job offers at the end
with the 21st Century skills necessary for the needs of of numerous collaborative projects made it apparent
the community locally, regionally, and that we were injecting highly valuable knowledge and
internationally” [16]. In pursuit of its aspiration to skill sets into the local industry, just like expert
become the number one source of marketing talent in consultants would do, so we reviewed our modus
the Arabian Gulf, the marketing faculty has chosen to operando throughout the full program” (PM).
draw value from its experience in and with the
marketing industry by making it part of the fabric of 3.1. Shifting program design and T&L
the learning experience through consistent Assuming the perspective that knowledge is an innate
authenticity and gradually increasing proximity. The capacity to act in context beyond the mere acquisition
program has an overarching authentic learning nature of information [19], the marketing faculty formally
by the fact that the major presents itself as a rejected the use of traditional evaluation through tests
marketing consulting firm that runs a training and instead fully incorporated the approach of
program. Every student who enrolls in the major is authentic project based learning through its entire
referred to as a trainee marketer throughout the first program as the methods for learning and evaluation
three semesters to advance to the status of associate of learning in an applied HE context. “Our experience
consultant in the final semester. “Looking at the with our capstone projects made us realize that there
fundamentals of our T&L philosophy of Problem and are plenty of real world marketing problems to be
Project Based Learning as being instrumental towards learned from right at our doorstep … the network and
work readiness, the perspective of a training program reputation built over the years through-out industry
run by the Firm makes perfect sense … we foster a projects has positively influenced our ability to
sense of professional identity in the learners as they source collaborations with industry” (PM). Every
move through the program.” (F) The program is course in the program is an authentic learning
14
experience and in the majority of cases is integrated marketing management shifting tact from operational
with other courses in the program. Table 1 outlines aspects to more strategic, big picture notions of the
the typical program progression of the Marketing marketing function. In the final semester the associate
Major specific courses at BP mapped against consultants take on virtually fully independently a
integration and authenticity. consulting project on a marketing project that
concerns multiple marketing subdomains in full
Course Authenticity proximity to their client.
Course Title In essence, the learners enter the program as trainee
Integration aspect
Marketing marketers and exit the program as Associate
Research Real client - Marketing Consultants with a portfolio of self-crafted
Sem 1
Integrated develop marketing solutions for real clients in various

IMC
Project promotional industries, a set of recognized professional marketing
Digital
campaign credentials and a strategy to communicate their
Marketing
Social marketer identity in a professional context.
Personal
Media
Stand Alone career
Choice of
Marketin 3.2. Major benefits of course integration

building Integrating multiple courses into one project triggers
g
Services team collaboration and knowledge transfer among the
Marketin faculty from a marketing and T&L perspective
g Real client - resulting in personal and professional learning at
individual and team level. It facilitates meaningful
Sem 2
Advance develop pop-

d Digital up service references across course content and clear focus on
Choice of
Marketin Integrated experience fundamental concepts that tie the subdomains

g Project with brand or together to push for higher order thinking. Course
Brand digital integration results in increased conversations around
Manage marketing the learners’ progress through shared feedback. “A
ment support. single project helps us in observing and discussing
Project the development of the learners within a shared
Management context which is far more insightful than for a single
course … you get to see more potential in the learners
Marketing Real client -
Management … you see strengths and weaknesses of the learners
Sem 3
Integrated strategic over a broader spectrum of marketing.” (F)

Marketing Project marketing Integration of courses shows learners the
Planning project multidimensional nature of the marketing field as part
Real client - of a bigger organizational picture. It puts the various
Multidisciplin
Sem 4
Industry multidisciplin subdomains of marketing in a functional context to

ary marketing
Project ary marketing solution development. Learners experience the
project
project faculty as a team throughout meetings with the client,
instruction of assessments and feedback towards
Table.1. Marketing Major Specific Courses building their marketing solution. “…it allows to
provide 360 feedback just like multiple managers
At the start of the program the trainees tackle a fully- would in a company which makes the feedback far
fledged integrated real life project across three more balanced and holistic.” (F) The final output
subdisciplines of marketing (i.e. Integrated Marketing shows depth and meaningfulness for the client and
Communication, Digital Marketing and Marketing prepares the learners for multidisciplinary learning
Research). The second semester offers the trainees and working environments. “Clients are often only
two choices of two options (Social Media Marketing seeing a selected marketing perspective on their
or Services Marketing and Advanced Digital problem … our learners are consistently expected to
Marketing or Brand Management) complemented use a process of problem unpacking, research and
with a compulsory Project Management course. multi-disciplinary solution development to arrive at a
Social media marketing does not integrate across client focused solution.” (F)
other disciplines as it addresses the use of social
media to develop the learners professional profile. 3.3. Major benefits of integrating real life clients
Content used for this is however typically partly Collaboration with industry guides program content
sourced from their experience in the other two and creates authentic learning experiences. The study
courses, which are integrated with a real-life client of Vande Wiele and Morris [20] highlighted the
around the development of a pop-up service influence of interfacing with industry with regards to
experience in a real life commercial environment. the current focus of the major on digital marketing as
The third semester integrates a real-life client with the a meaningful and fit for purpose HE offering.
marketing subdomains of marketing planning and Integrating a real-life client gives clear focus to the
15
course through direct application of marketing something that is much more open, ambiguous and
concepts allows foroutlining and tracking learning complicated so the organic route our has developed in
holistically and to give attention to the inclusion of was a logical and effective one.” (F) Course design
soft skills to the learning environment. “The projects and delivery challenges are found in alignment and
are real, so (in our teaching practice) we must include timing of content and assessments. “It requires a fair
consideration for how to deal with the client as well amount of coordination and collaboration to make
as with the marketing problem.” (F) Close industry sure courses and assessments are synced … we
engagement enhances the institutional reputation in integrate assessments were possible to avoid over-
industry as a provider of meaningfully applied assessment of students but it requires deep
education resulting in multiple benefits which in this discussions to make sure the assessments are aligned
case typically include positive word of mouth, with the learning outcomes of all courses” (F). There
graduate employment opportunities, industry is potential of learner fatigue of working on one
endorsements. Interfacing and collaborating with overarching project. “Even though in principle the
industry further helps faculty to keep abreast with project has various marketing angles that it can be
industry practice across various sectors and company approached from, it takes substantial effort from the
sizes and build professional networks for future teaching team to keep the learners motivated
opportunities. throughout the course … especially the early trainees
only see the ‘beauty’ of the multidimensional nature
Authentic Project Based Learning environments of a problem near the end of the project when they
enforces application of theory and experiential present to the client.” (F) The organization of learner
learning but equally allows for learner developmental teams across various classes and continuous
practice of employability skills against the backdrop monitoring of students’ learning and performance
of constraints and opportunities inherent to real life across various subdomains can be an obstacle to
situations. “Learners are pushed out of their comfort integrate multiple courses. “Running integrated
zone to explore and sharpen their abilities in real projects among several classes requires learners to be
world settings bolstering stronger confidence in their flexible in relation to team formation … team
abilities and greater self-awareness.” (F) This further formation across class sections requires careful
offers various forms of work experience building consideration from the faculty to make sure the
their professional profile in a future recruitment learning experience in class is as identical as possible
context. “Using a suite of real life projects gives us … it forces learners to plan and organize their time
the affirmation that our learners at the end of the outside the class room which is a good thing, but
program have 18 months of marketing experience requires careful monitoring and follow up from our
across various industries to be mentioned on their side.” (F)
CV. Through this approach we addresses one of the
grievances of employers and frustrations of fresh 3.5. Major Challenges to client integration
graduates in the region with regards to non- The success of the learning environment heavily
experienced local graduates.” (F) Proximity with depends on the course-client fit towards a meaningful
clients further exposes learners to requirements of the project for learning. “Some projects turn out more
workplace, facilitates understanding of professional successful than others based on the clients we deal
behaviors and helps setting expectations around with … over time we have become very effective at
career direction. The pursuit of client satisfaction selecting clients and securing successful learning
triggers performance well beyond academic experiences for our learners, this has equally been a
evaluation making the faculty engagement with learning curve for us as well.” (F) The client-fit stems
learners more client oriented than academic. “As the from various aspects spanning the general philosophy
learners progress through the program, we see them of engagement in the project (e.g. developmental
change from students towards young professionals in mindset and openness to types of solutions),
their thinking and behaviors … we as the Firm commitment to the project (i.e. constructive feedback,
facilitate learning by example.” (F) availability, collaboration, consistency) and the
client’s current marketing activities. “We make it
3.4. Major Challenges to course integration very clear to clients in advance what their role in this
A first challenge to course integration is the project is. Projects earlier in the program do not
inevitable initial resistance by faculty members to require the same level of intensity of engagement
abandon teaching their course in a stand-alone compared to the final industry project. Our primary
manner. “Having all our faculty gone through the concern is that learners develop through the
experience of the industry project as senior experience in terms of their marketing acumen.”
consultants (read: industry project supervisors) made (F)Working for a client requires faculty acumen of
it much easier to get buy-in around the opportunity the relevant macro contextual factors, course
and benefit of integrating courses earlier in the materials to be adjusted to the client’s industry
program … I can imagine not everyone would be (limiting exposure to multiple business models and
immediately open to revamping their courses into contexts) and raising learners’ awareness and interest
16
in the respective industry. “Focusing on a real client REFERENCES

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world of work.
17
A DOUBLE-BLIND RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL TO
EVALUATE THE EFFICACY AND SATISFACTION OF 0.2% VITIS
VINIFERA SEED EXTRACT CREAM FOR THE TREATMENT OF
MELASMA IN THAI VOLUNTEERS
1
MAY PYU THAW, 2TANOMKIT PAWCSUNTOM
1,2
Department of Dermatology, Mae FahLuang University (School of Anti-aging and Regenerative Medicine), 36/87-88, PS
Tower, 25th Floor, Asoke Road, Sukhumvit 21, KlongToeyNua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110, Thailand
Email: 1maypyuthaw@gmail.com, 2tanomkit@yahoo.com
Abstract - Melasma is a common skin problem mostly occurs in females and can leave a significant psychological and
emotional impact on the women’s life since it mainly affects the face. Its management is difficult because of incomplete
understanding of its pathogenesis, chronicity and recurrence rates. Recent study showed that Vitis vinifera(Grape) seeds have
anti-tyrosinase activity and inhibit melanin synthesis. The objective of this study was to assess the efficacy and satisfactory
evaluation of 0.2% Vitis vinifera seed extract cream for the treatment of melasma in a double-blind, randomized, controlled
and split face clinical trial. 20 female volunteers, Fitzpatrick skin type III-VI with fulfilled criteria were enrolled. Grape seed
extract cream and standard cream base were applied comparatively by using block randomization in split face design (right
and left sides), 2 times per day for total 12 weeks. Mild soaps and sunscreens were also provided to the volunteers.
Reduction of melanin index was evaluated by Mexameter® MX18 along with photography by VISIA® at baseline, 4th week,
8th week and 12th week respectively. MASI score, satisfactory score and side effects such as pruritus, erythema, allergic
contact dermatitis, post inflammatory hyperpigmentation and hypopigmentation were also recorded. After 12 weeks of
treatment, there was a significant melanin index reduction in grape seed extract cream group from 257.41±53.58 (baseline)
to 233.53±45.44 (12th week). Also MASI score of grape seed cream side reduction from 12.58±3.16 (baseline) to 9.29±2.7
(12th week) can be seen obviously. Grape seed extract cream reduced the melasma without side effects and the patients were
very satisfied with the cream result. Therefore, Vitis viniferaseed extract cream is safe and effective in treating the melasma.
Keywords - Melasma, Melanin Reduction, Vitis vinifera, Grape Seed
I. INTRODUCTION Latin/Hispanic, North African, African-American,

Asian, Indian, Middle Eastern, or Mediterranean
Nowadays, facial appearance plays a large role in descendant, are more prone to suffer from melasma
self-perception and interaction with others. It can be [4, 6].
the source of psychosocial distress for most of the Although melasma is a common disease, the
patients. Of all the severe facial blemishes, melasma management for this disease is quite difficult because
leaves a significant impact on woman’s quality of of the incomplete understanding of its pathogenesis,
life[1].The word “melasma” is derived from the chronicity and recurrence rates. It is also challenging
Greek “melas”, which means black color[2]. It is also due to the fear of post-inflammatory
known as “chloasma”, another Greek term which hyperpigmentation (PIH) after inflammation inducing
denotes the green color or “mask of pregnancy” therapies [7].Melasma treatments are aimed to slow
because of its high prevalence in pregnant women. down the proliferation of melanocytes, to inhibit the
The disease is triggered in about 40-50% of the formation of melanosomes and to promote their
female patients during pregnancy and 8% to 34% of degradation. Topical treatments, including photo
those taking Combined hormonal oral contraceptive protection, are typically the first-line therapies for
(COC)[3]. melasma. So, it is imperative for individuals to wear a
Melasma is an acquired diffuse hypermelanosis broad-spectrum (UVA+UVB) sunscreen daily, try to
characterized by localized, symmetrical, irregular, avoid the sun if possible and wear protective
light-to-dark brown maculae occurring in sun- eyewear, hats, caps and clothing [8].
exposed areas of the skin, especially the cheeks, As for the topical treatment, hydroquinone (HQ)
upper lips, the chin, and the forehead[4]. It can be remains the gold standard and used globally. This
seen commonly in females (female to male ratio, 9:1) compound works by inhibiting tyrosinase, which
and those with darker complexion – Fitzpatrick’s skin prevents the conversion of DOPA to melanin [9].
types IV-VI [2, 4, 5].The exact etiology of melasma Even though it is very effective and dosed at different
is unknown although some common triggering factors strengths, irritant dermatitis and exogenous
are described such as sun-exposure, pregnancy, ochronosis can occur due to prolonged usage
hormonal factors, cosmetic use, and genetic [10].Chemical peels are often chosen as second-line
predisposition, all of which significantly increase the treatment. For those patients who are refractory to
tyrosinase activity [4]. People from the world area other treatments, laser and light therapies become
with high intensity of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), rising alternatives but these treatments can also
18
A Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Satisfaction of 0.2% Vitis Vinifera Seed Extract Cream for the
Treatment of Melasma in Thai Volunteers
worsen the disease condition [5].In general, lasers criteria of age 30-65 years (Fitzpatrick skin type III-
could be expected to produce more durable effects, VI) with melasma, were enrolled. Subjects who took
by virtue of their longer-term changes on skin any other bleaching agent, hydroquinone and/or
structure and function compared with topicals. Since, tretinoin within 6 months and those using hormones
melasma can be seen a lot in pregnant women, lasers, or any medicines which can interfere the
topical or chemical peels could be harmful or maybe melanogenesis were excluded. Volunteers having
associated with teratogenicity. For that reason, herbal metabolic diseases, photosensitivity, open wound and
therapy becomes an alternative topical treatment malignant or premalignant lesions in the treatment
modality for melasma patients associated with or area were also excluded. Pregnant and breastfeeding
without pregnancy. women, subjects who cannot avoid heavy sunlight
When compare with synthetic cosmetic products and allergy to chemical compounds of grape seed
those exhibit toxicity and require high manufacturing extract cream, standard cream base, sunscreen and
costs, herbal products are mild, biodegradable and mild soap were excluded too. 0.5g of grape seed
have biological and therapeutic activities with low cream was applied in one side of the face with
cost and widespread availability [11][12]. Various melasma and 0.5g of standard cream in another side
botanical extracts such as grape seed extract, with melasma, twice a day. Sunscreen was applied 30
pycnogenol, aloesin, green tea extracts, coffee berry, minutes before UV exposure. Improvement of
soy, and licorice extract have been tried as a melasma was evaluated by Mexameter® MX 18 on
treatment of melasma [13]. the cream applied areas along with photography by
Grapevine (Vitis) is one of the most commonly VISIA® analysis at baseline, 4th, 8th , and 12th weeks.
consumed fruits in the world.It grows in clusters of Satisfactory score and adverse effects were observed
15 to 300, and can be crimson, black, dark blue, and recorded throughout the study. The researchers
yellow, green, orange, and pink.It is a native to used paired t-test to compare the results. We did the
the Mediterranean region, central Europe, significant level of p value <0.05. This protocol has
southwestern Asia, Morocco and Portugal north to been approved by the Mae FahLuang University
southern Germany and east to northern Iran[14].Vitis Research Ethics Committee on Human Research.
vinifera has been traditionally used as a wound healer
and anti-inflammatory agent dating back to European III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
folk healers. It contains a variety of active
compounds such as organic acids, oils and 3.1 Results
polyphenols. Since it has numerous beneficial A total of 20 female volunteers, ranging from age 30-
properties including depigmentation, anti-dandruff, 65 years (mean 44.96±11.22 years) with Fitzpatrick
anti-fungal, anti-microbial, antioxidant, and UV skin type III-V (n=6,10,4) completed the study.
absorber ingredient, grapes are used in a wide variety Volunteers applied Vitis vinifera (Grape) seed extract
of cosmetics and personal care products [14, 15]. cream and standard cream base contra-laterally.
The previous studies already concluded that the grape Mexameter readings for mean melanin index of grape
seed extract has significant anti-oxidant, anti- seed cream group showed a significant drop
inflammatory and tyrosinase inhibition activities. from257.41±53.58 (baseline) to248.96±49.63,
Therefore, we planned to study that tyrosinase 243.49±47.35, 233.53±45.44(4th week), (8th week)
activity of grape seed will actually be useful in and (12th week) respectively. As for the standard
inhibition of melanin production. Hence, the main cream base side, only slight changes were seen from
purpose is to study the efficacy and satisfactory baseline250.99±45.21 until the end of the study;
evaluation of topical 0.2% Vitis vinifera (grape) seed (246.71±45.51, 250.06±44.68, 247.88±44.99)
extract cream on the Thai people as a treatment of respectively at 4th, 8th and 12th weekwith paired t-test.
melasma. But, when evaluation were done by using repeated
measure ANOVA, only Vitis vinifera seed cream side
II. DETAILS EXPERIMENTAL showed statistically significant result (p-value =
<0.0001) whereas the results from cream base side
2.1 Materials and Procedures showed no significant improvement (p-value =
This was a comparative, double-blind, randomized, 0.3707).The researcher did the following at
controlled and split face clinical trial. Twenty healthy significance level of p-value <0.05.These can be seen
female volunteers, who matched with all the inclusion in Table 1 and figure 1.
Mean Melanin Index Vitis vinifera cream Standard cream base p value* (paired t)
Baseline 257.41 +/- 53.58 250.99 +/- 45.21
4th week 248.96 +/- 49.63 246.71 +/- 45.51 0.434
th
8 week 243.49 +/- 47.35 250.06 +/- 44.68 0.073
19
12th week 233.53 +/- 45.44 247.88 +/- 44.99 <0.0001****
p value*(repeated
<0.0001**** 0.3707
ANOVA)
Table 1 Mean melanin index between Vitis vinifera cream and Standard cream base on each week using paired t-test and repeated
measure ANOVA test
Figure 1: Linear graph showed the comparison of mean melanin index score in each visit between sides applied Vitis vinifera seed
cream and standard cream base using paired t-test
For the MASI score calculation, all patients had taken a photograph in each follow up visit in order for 3
dermatologists to assess the improvement. Mean MASI scores before the treatment with Vitis vinifera seed
extract cream and standard cream base are 12.58±3.16 and 12.43±3.06 respectively at baseline. The scoring of
Vitis vinifera cream treated side progressively dropped to 10.62±2.79 at 8th week and to 9.29±2.7 at 12th week
while, in contrary cream base side increased to 13.47±2.74 at 8th week and to 12.82±2.95 after the 12 weeks
treatment. When using paired t-test, both of their p-value (<0.0001 at 8th week and <0.0001 at 12th week) were
statistically significant. And with repeated measure ANOVA, both creams also showed statistically significant
results (p-value <0.0001) from baseline to 12th week of research (Table 2 and figure 2). The researcher did the
following at significance level of p-value <0.05.
Mean MASI score Vitis vinifera cream Standard cream base p value* (paired t)
Baseline 12.58 +/- 3.16 12.43 +/- 3.06
4th week 11.75 +/- 3.12 12.61 +/- 3.04 0.434
th
8 week 10.62 +/- 2.79 13.47 +/- 2.74 <0.0001****
th
12 week 9.29 +/- 2.7 12.82 +/- 2.95 <0.0001****
p value* (repeated
<0.0001**** <0.0001****
ANOVA)
Table 2. Mean MASI score between Vitis vinifera cream and Standard cream base on each week using paired t-test and repeated
measure ANOVA test
Figure 2. Linear graph showed the comparison of mean MASI score in each visit between sides applied Vitis vinifera seed cream and
standard cream base using paired t-test
20
Dermatologist Evaluation
Improvement Week 4 Week 8 Week 12
V.vinifera Base V.vinifera Base V.vinifera Base
100% = Excellent _ _ _ _ _ _
75% = Good _ _ 2 _ 5 1
50% = Moderate 4 2 9 4 11 6
25% = Fair 12 8 9 11 4 12
0 = No changes 4 10 _ 5 _ 1
1 = Worse _ _ _ _ _ _
Table 3. Statistically analysis of dermatologist evaluation score compared between Vitis vinifera extract cream and standard cream
base on 4th, 8th and 12th week
Figure 3 Column chart reveals the dermatologists’ evaluation scoring of Vitis vinifera seed cream and standard cream base on 12th
week
Using global satisfaction score ranges from -1 to +4; -1 = worse, 0 = no change, +1 = fair improvement (1-
25%), +2 = moderate improvement (26-50%), +3 = good improvement (51-75%), +4 = excellent improvement
(76-100%), three dermatologists rated 5 subjects as good improvement, 11 as moderately improvement and 4 as
fair improvement in grape seed extract cream group. Amazingly, the evaluation results of 3 dermatologists also
showed statistically significant starting from 4th week (p value=0.0421) till the end of the study (p
value=0.0018). The results are shown below in Table 3 and Figure 3.
For patients’ satisfaction score, grape seed cream has gotten higher score than cream base after the 12weeks
study. Most of the volunteers rated the grape seed cream as very satisfied due to clearly visible improvement
(Table 4 and Figure 4).
(n=20) Vitis vinifera Standard Cream Base
4= extremely satisfied 3 _
3= very satisfied 9 _
2= moderately satisfied 7 9
1= less satisfied 1 9
0= no changes _ 2
1= worse _ _
Table 4 Statistical analysis of patient satisfaction scores on 12th week on both sides of Vitis viniferaseed cream and standard cream
base
21
Figure 4 Column chart reveals the patients’ satisfactory scoring of V.vinifera seed cream and cream base on 12th week
3.2 Discussion optimization of treatment parameters with

This study demonstrated that Vitis vinifera seed improvement of patients’ outcomes. 0.2% V.vinifera
extract cream was able to reduce melanin production cream had significant better outcomes in all aspects
significantly. According to this study, all were female compared with cream base from 8th week onwards.
Thai volunteers with Fitzpatrick skin type III, IV and Patients were also satisfied with the result of grape
V and average age was 44.96±11.22 years. This study seed extract cream. Although the highest
result showed grape seed cream had significant concentration of grape seed extract was used in this
melanin reduction effect compared to standard cream research, no serious side effects were found during
base at all-time points; 4th, 8th and 12th weeks. The the study period. Therefore, grape seed extract cream
decreasing of mean melanin index of grape seed is effective and safe to use in treating melasma.
cream side may result from the anti-tyrosinase However, the duration that 0.2% Vitis vinifera cream
property and also anti-oxidative property. Without reaching its maximum whitening effect and
whitening properties, the reduction of mean melanin prolonged usage complications should be find out
index in standard cream base side may arise from more by carrying out longer study.
other factors such as moisturizing or broad spectrum
sunscreen effect. Based on study of Chaudhuri in ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
2002, the using of broad spectrum sunscreen can
protect skin from UV radiation and improve melasma It is my pleasure to sincerely thank my research
[16].Paired differences between grape seed cream and supervisor, Dr. TanomkitPawcsuntomfor his kindness
standard cream base in the same period were used to in encouraging and advising me to carry out this
calculate the statistically significant reduction of research successfully. Moreover, I would like to take
mean melanin index in both sides. From 4th week of this opportunity to acknowledge the services of total
application, every area was considered to be team of publisher and everyone who collaborated in
significant statistically. From this calculation, it can producing this work.
be considered that grape seed extract cream can
reduce the mean melanin index better than standard REFERENCES
cream base without side effects. Dermatologists and
volunteers were also satisfied with the effect of grape [1] Adalatkhah, H., et al., Melasma and its association with
seed cream applied in melasma area. different types of nevi in women: a case-control study. BMC
Dermatol, 2008. 8: p. 3.
[2] Bandyopadhyay, D., Topical treatment of melasma. Indian J
CONCLUSIONS Dermatol, 2009. 54(4): p. 303-9.
[3] Handel, A.C., L.D. Miot, and H.A. Miot, Melasma: a clinical
and epidemiological review. An Bras Dermatol, 2014. 89(5):
In summary, according to this study result, 0.2% of p. 771-82.
Grape seed extract cream was able to reduce melanin [4] Demirkan, S., O. Gunduz, and C.D. Sayan, Retrospective
production in Thai volunteers. Twelve weeks of Analysis of Endemic Melasma Patients. Dermatol Reports,
clinical data and studies have allowed for 2017. 9(1): p. 7027.
22
[5] Shankar, K., et al., Evidence-based treatment for melasma: [11] Cadiz-Gurrea, M.L., et al., Cocoa and Grape Seed
expert opinion and a review. Dermatol Ther (Heidelb), 2014. Byproducts as a Source of Antioxidant and Anti-
4(2): p. 165-86. Inflammatory Proanthocyanidins. Int J Mol Sci, 2017. 18(2).
[6] Gupta, A.K., et al., The treatment of melasma: a review of [12] Chanchal, D. and S. Swarnlata, Novel approaches in herbal
clinical trials. J Am Acad Dermatol, 2006. 55(6): p. 1048-65. cosmetics. J Cosmet Dermatol, 2008. 7(2): p. 89-95.
[7] Katiyar, S., et al., Botanical study of skin lightening agents. [13] Sarkar, R., et al., Melasma update. Indian Dermatol Online J,
International Journal of Pharmacognosy, 2014. 1(4): p. 243- 2014. 5(4): p. 426-35.
249. [14] Bouquet, A., et al., Grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), in
[8] Cestari, T., et al., Melasma in Latin America: options for Agrobacterium Protocols Volume 2, K. Wang, Editor. 2007,
therapy and treatment algorithm. J Eur Acad Dermatol Humana Press: Totowa, NJ. p. 273-285.
Venereol, 2009. 23(7): p. 760-72. [15] Fiume, M.M., et al., Safety assessment of Vitis vinifera
[9] Ogbechie-Godec, O.A. and N. Elbuluk, Melasma: an Up-to- (grape)-derived ingredients as used in cosmetics. Int J
Date Comprehensive Review. Dermatol Ther (Heidelb), Toxicol, 2014. 33(3 Suppl): p. 48S-83S.
2017. [16] Leenutaphong, V., A. Nettakul, and P. Rattanasuwon, Topical
[10] Mishra, S.N., et al., Diagnostic utility of dermatoscopy in isotretinoin for melasma in Thai patients: a vehicle-controlled
hydroquinone-induced exogenous ochronosis. Int J Dermatol, clinical trial. J Med Assoc Thai, 1999. 82(9): p. 868-75.
2013. 52(4): p. 413-7.

23
A SPLIT-FACE, RANDOMIZED, DOUBLE-BLIND CLINICAL TRIAL
ON EYEBROW LIFTING EFFICIENCY BY DIFFERENT DILUTIONS
OF ABOBOTULINUM TOXIN INJECTION
1
SAI NYAN LIN WIN, 2RASSAPOOM SUMAETHEIWIT
1,2
Department of Dermatology, Mae FahLuang University (School of Anti-aging and Regenerative Medicine), 36/87-88, PS
Tower, 25th Floor, Asoke Road, Sukhumvit 21, KlongToeyNua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110, Thailand
E-mail: 1sainyanlinwin@gmail.com, 2rassapoom@hotmail.com
Abstract - Eyebrow is one of the important part of the facial appearance and eyebrow sagging is one of the aging sign.
Because of the nature aging, the eyebrow become drop and most of those people desire to lift the eyebrow to become more
youthful facial aesthetic. Among various methods of eyebrow lifting, Botulinum toxin injection for eyebrow lifting become
popular because of its non -invasive method. However, there is the risk of ptosis when we inject to the orbicularis oculi
muscle for eyebrow lifting so that intradermal injection around lateral part of orbicularis oculi muscle can theoretically solve
this problem. Recent study show Intradermal Abobotulinum toxin injection was used for lifting of the eyebrow but we did
not know exactlywhat is the most effective and safe dilution of Abobutilinum toxin. The objective of this study was to
evaluate the therapeutic efficacy and duration of action of same unit of two different dilutions of Abobotulinum toxin
injection in eyebrow lifting, a split face, randomized, double-blind clinical trial. Twenty male and female volunteers were
enrolled according to inclusion and exclusion criteria.Different dilution of 0.42ml/30U(standard dilution) and 0.84
ml/30U(two fold dilution)of Abobotulinum toxin (Dysport®), which chose randomly were injected intradermal, six points
separated at temporal area along the hair line. Increasing of the eyebrow high is measured by6" inch 150 mm Carbon Fiber
Composite Vernier Digital Electronic Caliper Ruler; wrinkles, roughness, scaliness score were measured by Visiometer
SV600; side effects and satisfaction score were noted by asking questionnaire. All volunteer did injection on day 0, followed
up for day 14,30,60 and day 90. There were increased in percentage of brow high change from the base line 100.00±0.00, at
distance between tail of the brow and lateral cantus: to 104.32 ±7.02 (day 90) in the standard dilution side and104.70 ±5.47
(day 90) in the two fold dilution side; at vertical distance between lower border of brow and lateral cantus: to 106.13 ±8.13
(day 90) in standard dilution side and 107.59±7.71 (day 90) in two fold dilution side; at distance between lower border of
medial brow and pupil: to 107.11±6.83 (day 90) in standard dilution side and 108.686±10.16 (day90) in two fold dilution
side.Conclusion: there were no significant differences in the compering of the percentage of brow high change in standard
dilution side and two fold dilution side. There was no significant difference in the reduction of wrinkle between two different
dilutions until day 14, but significantly different at day 30 and day 60 follow up. Therefore, two different dilutions of same
Abobotulinum toxin units have the same therapeutic efficacies in eyebrow lifting by intradermal injection method although
duration of wrinkle treatment can be last longer with two fold dilution.
Keywords - Eyebrow Lifting, Abobotulinum Toxin, Different Dilution
I. INTRODUCTION effect. Relaxation of eyebrow depressors (obicualris

oculi muscle and corrugator muscle) by injection of
When people getting older, the forehead can droop Botulinum toxin can make the eyebrow lift. However,
and gives the appearance of a permanent scowl or the one most concerned complication of BoNT
constantly looking tired or sad. There are various injection in eyebrow lift procedure is ptosis if the
kind of eyebrow lifting procedures (called a toxin can diffuse to levatorpalpebraesuperioris
“forehead lift”) that can instantly correct sagging of muscle.
the brow area, resulting in a total rejuvenation of the
upper face. Even though surgery can give beautiful Botulinum toxin is used target to brow depressors
and effective eyebrow lifting, most of the doctors and produces a small degree of brow elevation. Female
people come to prefer non-surgical technique for candidate are more prefer for their eyebrow concern,
eyebrow lifting. Most of the people prefer minor especially someone without heavy horizontal brows
procedure rather than surgical method to make the (Huilgol, Carruthers, and Carruthers 1999).There
beautiful eyebrow. So, botulinum toxin injection were significant temporal eyebrow elevation occurs
become popular among the various kind of aesthetic as the result of paralysis of brow depressors by using
procedure for eyebrow lifting. Botulinum toxin A injection(Ahn, Catten, and Maas
2000). Botulinum toxin is a safe and effective
When Botulinum toxin is injected into corrugator and treatment not only for temporary eye browlifting but
orbicularis oculi muscle and causes relax these also for aesthetically elevations of nasal, central and
muscles. By injecting Botox into the corrugator and temporal brow producing pleasing desirable shape
orbicularis oculi muscles become weak and it cannot and height(Huang, Rogachefsky, and Foster 2000).
be powerful to pull down the eyebrow. In the other As Botulinum toxin injection is minor non-surgical
hand, the frontalis muscle will provide opposite procecure ice pack and application of topical
action to pull the eyebrows up, giving the brow lifting lidocaine anesthesia are used to reduce pain (Wu
24
A Split-Face, Randomized, Double-Blind Clinical Trial on Eyebrow Lifting Efficiency by Different Dilutions of Abobotulinum Toxin Injection
2015). Intradermal microbotox injection technique for

eyebrow lifting will provide theoretically avoid ptosis
and to get more natural appearance.“Microbotox” is
the small doses of toxin which delivered in each
micro droplet into the dermis, it can decrease sweat
and sebaceous gland activity to improve skin texture
.When we inject to the dermis above the orbicularis
oculi muscle , it can paralyze just only the superficial
muscle of the orbicularis oculi muscle giving more
natural looking appearance (Wu 2015). As for Fig (1) Sites of injection of intradermal Abobotulinum toxin
microbotox injection, different dilutions have
different effected area. The higher volume of dilution, Standardized photographs at normal response were
the area of effected may be increased. With the same taken prior to thetreatment (baseline) and at each
number of units, injection using higher volume results follow-up visit for 90 days (at days 0, 14, 30, 60, 90)
in greater diffusion and a larger affected area(Hsu, using VISIA® Complexion Analysis System. Brow
Dover, and Arndt 2004).Botulinum toxin injection high efficacy was measured by using mm scales of
can modify the microcirculation (via smooth muscle digital slide calipers (6" inch 150 mm Carbon Fiber
relaxation) and lymphatic circulation. Previous study Composite Vernier Digital Electronic Caliper Ruler)
proved that after the intradermal injection of BTX, at 3 different sites;TTCD= distance between tail of
there was increasing in density of procollagen type I the brow and lateral cantus, TBCD= vertical distance
in the superficial dermis (Ahn, Catten, and Maas between lower border of brow and lateral cantus,
2000). CBOD= distance between lower border of medial
brow and pupil as shown in fig (2).
Therefore, researcher interest on how much the
volume of dilution can modulate different therapeutic
effects of intradermal Botulinum toxin for eyebrow
lifting. This study was to investigate the two dilutions
of same Abobotulinum toxin units have different
therapeutic efficacies in eyebrow lifting by
intradermal injection method.
II. DETAILS EXPERIMENTAL Fig (2) Sites of measurement of brow height
2.1. Materials and Procedures Wrinkle at Crow’s feet were measure by

This study was a spilt -face, randomized, double VISIOMETER® prior to the
blind, clinical study for eyebrow lifting done at Mae treatment (baseline) and at each follow-up visit for 90
FahLuang University hospital, Bangkok.Twenty Thai days. These photographs and measurement by
volunteers both male and female of age between 25- VISIOMETER® (SV600) were evaluated by three
55, who desire to lift their eyebrows were enrolled. physicians blinded to treatment group and timing of
Volunteer who have pregnancy, lactation, asthma, the photographs.
allergy to Botulinum toxin, allergy to anesthesia, Satisfactory score and adverse effects were observed
who have history of botulinum toxin and filler and recorded throughout the study. The researchers
injection and other cosmetic procedure around used paired t-test to compare these results by
temporal area within one year, neuromuscular GraphPad Prism 7 software. We set the significant
disorder such as myasthenia gravis, Eaton–Lambert level of p value be<0.05. This protocol has been
syndrome, and people who taking any medications approved by the Mae FahLuang University Research
that could interfere with neuromuscular transmission Ethics Committee on Human Research.
(aminoglycoside antibiotics, cyclosporine, muscle
relaxants, magnesium sulfate, lincosamide) were III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
excluded in this study. Volunteers were assigned and
different dilution of intradermal Abobotulinum toxin 3.1 Results
(Dysport®) with 30U/0.24ml(Standard dilution) and A total of 20 female volunteers, ranging from age 25-
30U/8.42ml(Two fold dilution) were injected six 55 years (mean 38.35±10.42 years) were completed
points along the hairline at different temporal area the study. All volunteer were injected 0.42cc/30U
with same intervals. Different sides of temporal area (standard dilution) and 0.84cc/30U (two fold dilution)
and different syringe of dilutions were chosen of intradermal Abobotulinum toxin at different side
randomly. of temporal area respectively.Mean brow
highchanges(mm) were measured and calculated
change in brow high by normalization of baseline
result.
25
3.1.1Changes in the brow high at TTCD 104.70±5.47 (day 90) respectively.These can be seen
At TTCD, brow high in 0.42ml/30U(standard in table (1) which both groups showed p value
dilution) side were significantly increased from 100 <0.0001 after the 30 days study and <0.05 until 90
±0.00 (baseline) to 104.93±4.34 (day 14), 107.98 days of study.
±7.20 (day 30), 106.42 ±7.32 (day 60) and 104.32 However, there is no significant difference in the
±7.02 (day 90) respectively. At the same increasing of the brow high change between
measurement of TTCD in 0.84ml/30U (tow fold 0.42ml/30U ( standard dilution) and 0.84ml/30U (two
dilution) side were also significantly increased from fold dilution) after normalize the mean brow high
100±0.00 (baseline) to 105.41±6.31 (day 14), change that are show in the figure (3).
108.58±6.99 (day 30), 107.85±5.85 (day 60) and
Mean brow high % (TTCD) P value

Day 0 (Base line) 100 ±0.00
Day 14 104.93 ±4.34 <0.0001
Standard dilution Day 30 107.98 ±7.20 0.0001
Day 60 106.42 ±7.32 0.0012
Day 90 104.32 ±7.02 0.0148
Day 0 (Base line) 100.00 ±0.00
Day 14 105.41 ±6.31 0.0014
Two fold dilution Day 30 108.58 ±6.99 <0.0001
Day 60 107.85 ±5.85 <0.0001
Day 90 104.70 ±5.47 0.0014
Table (1) Percentage of mean brow high change at TTCD
109.64±8.39 (Day 30), 107.39 ±5.87 (Day 0) and

106.13 (Day 90) respectively. There were also
significantly increased in brow high change in two
**** ****
fold dilution form 100.00±0.00 (base line) to 106.53
** ** ±7.55 (Day 14), 112.74±10.53 (Day 30), 111.23
***
**** **
* ±9.88 (Day 60) and 107.59 ±7.71( Day 90)
respectively. All the data are set P value < 0.05 that
are shown in table (2).
In TBCD, there were significantly increased in brow
Fig (3) Percentage of brow high change between standard high from baseline to day 14 in both standard dilution
dilution and two fold dilution at TTCD and two fold dilution sides. Beyond day 14, brow
high were more higher in the two fold dilution side
3.1.2 Changes in brow high at TBCD compare with the standard dilution and the efficacy
At TBCD, percentage of mean of brow high was was highest at day 30 and then gradually decline until
significantly increased in both standard and two fold day 90. The brow high at the side of standard dilution
dilution. There were significantly increased in brow were also increased up to day 30 but the efficacy is
high change in standard dilution side from 100.00 not much that of two fold dilution.
±0.00 (baseline) to 106.47 ±6.20 (Day 14),
Mean brow high % (TBCD) P value

Day 0 (Base line) 100.00 ±0.00
Day 14 106.47 ±6.20 0.0002
Standard dilution Day 30 109.64 ±8.39 <0.0001
Day 60 107.39 ±5.87 <0.0001
Day 90 106.13 ±8.13 0.0039
Day 0 (Base line) 100.00 ±0.00
Day 14 106.53 ±7.55 0.0013
Two fold dilution Day 30 112.74 ±10.53 <0.0001
Day 60 111.23 ±9.88 <0.0001
Day 90 107.59 ±7.71 0.0004
Table (2) Percentage of brow high change in TBCD
26
±12.06(Day 60) and 107.101 ±6.83 (Day 90)

respectively.In contrary, there were also significantly
increased in the brow high from 100.00 ±0.00
**** **** (baseline) to 110.086 ±8.95 (Day 14), 113.692 ±8.15
** ***
(Day 30), 111.453 ±9.72(Day 60) and 108.686
****
*** **** ** ±10.16 (Day 90) respectively. All of these data are
shown in Table (3).In the comparison of the changes
of the brow high between standard dilution side and
two fold dilution side, there were no significantly
difference in brow high change between two dilution
Fig (4) Percentage of brow high change between standard
dilution and two fold dilution at TBCD
at CBOD. However, according to the data analysis,
the duration of action of Abobotulinium toxin with
3.1.3 Changes in brow high at CBOD two fold dilution seem to be last longer than that of
At CBOD, there were significantly increased in brow standard dilution after 90 day of the study.
high from 100.00 ±0.00 (baseline) to 110.78 ±11.68
(Day 14), 114.998 ±15.39 (Day 30), 111.14
Mean brow high % (CBOD) P value

Day 0 (Base line) 100.00 ±0.00
Day 14 110.7860412 ±11.68 0.0007
Standard dilution Day 30 114.9987875 ±15.39 0.0004
Day 60 111.1494408 ±12.06 0.0007
Day 90 107.1005546 ±6.83 0.0002
Day 0 (Base line) 100.00 ±0.00
Day 14 110.0869064 ±8.95 <0.0001
Two-fold dilution Day 30 113.6923443 ±8.15 <0.0001
Day 60 111.4534438 ±9.72 <0.0001
Day 90 108.6866056 ±10.16 0.0014
Table (3) Percentage of mean brow high change in CBOD
****
**** ****
**
*** ****
*** *** **** *** *
***
****
**** ****
Fig (5) Percentage of brow high change between standard

dilution and two fold dilution at CBOD
Fig (6) Percentage of wrinkle score between Standard dilution
and Two fold dilution
3.1.4 Wrinkle score measuring by Visiometer
SV600
Wrinkle score are measured by Visiometer around 3.1.5 Roughness score measuring by Visiometer
temporal area. On the standard dilution side, wrinkle SV600
score significantly reduce down beyond 80% until Roughness score are measured by Visiometer
day 14 follow up visit and then slightly increased. SV600.Nearly 90% reduction of the roughness found
However, wrinkle score significantly reduce until day in both standard and two fold dilution sides on day 14
30 on this side. On the two fold dilution side, wrinkle and this efficacy was sustained until day 30 and then
score significantly reduce nearly 70% and this slightly increased. Roughnessre-appear after day 90
efficacy is sustained up to day 30 and then slightly of the treatment. However, there is no significantly
increased. Wrinkle score on this side are still reduced difference in the reduction of roughness between
significantly until day 90.There is no significant standard dilution and two fold dilution side.
difference in the reduction of wrinkle between two
different dilution until day 14, but significantly
different at day 30 and day 60 follow up as shown in
fig (6).
27
3.1.8 Side effect evaluation

Side effects were evaluated by asking questionnaire
including brusing at injection site, infection,
headache, ptosis, diplopia, facial asymmetry and
*** others. In this study, there were no side effects.
****
**** 3.2 Discussion

**** **** **** In this study, intradermal Abobotulinum toxin
injection can lifting of the eyebrow and reduction of
the wrinkles, scaliness, roughness around the lateral
Fig (7) Percentage of roughness between standard dilution and side of the eyes There was study focus on eyebrow
two fold dilution lifting by botulinum toxin A causing paralysis of the
eyebrow depressors. They found that Significant
3.1.6Scaliness score measuring by Visiometer temporal eyebrow elevation occurs as the result of
SV600 paralysis of brow depressors by using botulinum
Scaliness score were measured at the same side of toxin A injection. So, this procedure may be
wrinkle measurement one centimeter beside the considered an alternative to surgical brow
lateral cantus by Visiometer SV600. In both standard elevation(Ahn, Catten, and Maas 2000). Intradermal
dilution and two fold dilution sides, more than 50% botox injection is use to deliver the toxin into the
significantly reduction of the scaliness in 14 days dermis layer so that it can paralyze just only the
after injection of Abobotulinum toxin and this superficial muscle of the orbicularis oculi muscle
efficacy were sustained up to day 60. There was no giving more natural looking appearance reduce the
significant difference in the reduction of scaliness side effect of ptosis(Wu 2015) . One of the paper
between these two dilutions. state that different dilution have different effected
area. The higher volume of dilution, the area of
effected may be increased.So, paradoxically, the
larger-volume, lower-concentration of toxin give
greater paralysis. With the same number of units,
injection using higher volume results in greater
diffusion and a larger affected area(Hsu, Dover, and
**** Arndt 2004). In this study, we use the same dose
**** ****
**** **** **** (30U) different dilution of Abototulinum toxin A
DysportR 0.42ml and 0.84ml were injected
intradermal around temporal area. There were
Fig (8) Percentages of scaliness score between standard dilution significant elevation of the eyebrow in all three
and two fold dilution
different sides-1. Lateral cantus and tail of the
eyebrow, 2. Lateral cantus and lower border of the
3.1.7Brow high treatment satisfaction score eyebrow, 3. Lower border of the eyebrow and pupil.
Brow Height Treatment Satisfaction score are noted We found that the elevation of the eye brow at
on every visit by asking Questionnaire, in which distance between lateral cantus and tail of the
subjects rated their satisfaction with treatment effects eyebrow and vertical distance between lower border
by rating 7 separate items (ranging from 1 = very of the eyebrow and lateral cantus are more higher in
dissatisfied to 7 = very satisfied). Most of the two fold dilution sides. As we inject Botulinum toxin
volunteers were satisfied for the treatment for intradermal at the temporal area, the toxin will mostly
Abotulinum toxin injection to raise their brow. diffuse superficially to the lateral part of orbicularis
However, some volunteer are somewhat satisfied in occuli muscle and can paralyze mostly to the lateral
two fold dilution side at the day of injection. part orbicularis oculi muscle. As toxin diffuse to only
to the superficial part the orbicularis oculi muscle, it
can difficult to diffuse to the
levatorpalpebraesuperioris muscle so that intradermal
injection of Botulinum toxin injection at the temporal
area can prevent ptosis when we inject it for eyebrow
lifting. We also found that wrinkles, roughness and
scaliness scores were decreased more significantly in
the two fold dilution side that we can prove the
diffusion of Botulinum toxin would greater and have
14
30
60
90
0
ay
larger affected area when the toxin diluted larger-

ay
ay
ay
ay
D
Fig (9) Eyebrow lifting satisfaction score between standard

volume and lower concentration. According to this
dilution and two fold dilution study, treatment of the wrinkles (crowfeet) beside the
eye will be better by injection with two fold dilution
28
Botulinum toxin and the effects seems to be last lifting should be find out more by carrying out longer
longer more than 3 months. According to the duration of study.
eyebrow lifting satisfaction score, volunteer are Disclosure: Researcher got support Abobotulinum
somewhat unsatisfied the two fold dilution (0.84ml) toxin 2 vials from Dysport® distributor company,
that can a little bit painful because of the amount of Bangkok, Thailand.
solution is more than standard dilution (0.42ml).
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
CONCLUSION
It is my pleasure sincerely thank to my research
In summary, according to the results of this study, supervisor, Dr. Rassapoom Sumaetheiwit and
intradermal Abobotulinum toxin injection at the Professor Dr. Thamthiwat Nararatwanchai, for their
temporal area will be effective for eyebrow lifting by kindness in encouraging and advising me to carry out
both standard and two fold dilution and the eyebrow this research successfully. Moreover, I would like to
lifting efficacy will last longer more than 3 months. take this opportunity to acknowledge the services of
Wrinkles, scaliness and roughness would total team of publisher and everyone who
significantly better in bothstandard dilution and two collaborated in producing this work.
fold dilution sides up to 2 month and than they seem
to be reappear after 2 months. However, action of REFERENCE
intradermal Abobotulinum toxin action on wrinkle
will last longer in two fold dilution side. Volunteers [1] Ahn, M. S., M. Catten, and C. S. Maas. 2000. 'Temporal
were satisfied the effective of eyebrow lifting by brow lift using botulinum toxin A', Plast Reconstr Surg, 105:
1129-35; discussion 36-9.
injection of botulinum toxin injection. although [2] Hsu, T. S., J. S. Dover, and K. A. Arndt. 2004. 'Effect of
higher dilution of Abobotulinum toxin was used in volume and concentration on the diffusion of botulinum
this study, no serious side effects were found during exotoxin A', Arch Dermatol, 140: 1351-4.
[3] Huang, W., A. S. Rogachefsky, and J. A. Foster. 2000.
the study period. Therefore, two fold dilution of
'Browlift with botulinum toxin', Dermatol Surg, 26: 55-60.
Abobotulinum toxin is effective and safe to use in [4] Huilgol, S. C., A. Carruthers, and J. D. Carruthers. 1999.
eyebrow lifting and treatment of crowfeet wrinkles. 'Raising eyebrows with botulinum toxin', Dermatol Surg, 25:
However, how will last the duration of action of 373-5; discussion 76.
[5] Wu, W. T. 2015. 'Microbotox of the Lower Face and Neck:
intradermal Abobotulinum toxin action for eyebrow Evolution of a Personal Technique and Its Clinical Effects',
Plast Reconstr Surg, 136: 92S-100S.

29
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOP
MANAGEMENT SUPPORT AND PROJECT SUCCESS
KHIMJI VAGHJIANI
School of Information Technologies, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2008, Australia
Abstract - This research paper investigates the interaction between top management support and project success. Top
management support has generally been considered an important critical factor for the success of Information System
projects and is an area that has high impact on project success. However, previous studies have shown that senior
management in the IT sector are not aware of this and as a result, pay more attention to conventional technical and project
management critical success factors that have a low impact on project success than previously thought. It provides evidence
that top management support is the most important critical success factor for IT projects and is not just one of the factors.
The findings are proven via investigating project management literature and the critical success factors on Information
Systems project success.
Index Terms - Benefits Realization, Critical Success Factors, IT Enabled Business Projects, Management Information
Systems (MIS), Top Management Support
I. INTRODUCTION about the required top management support processes

and hence, the managerial guidance framework is not
The importance of top management support has been very well developed [11]. The general management
discussed and recognised since a long time in the IS and the business concepts are not new, but the
literature [10] [11] [12] [13]. Despite this, IT application of these concepts in the information
professionals and researchers have both focused their systems area is still under development as IS area is
attention on critical success factors that could be more constantly evolving [6].
directly managed [14] and controlled and have paid
little to no attention to top management support as Top Management has been urged to improve the ways
being an equally or more important critical success they manage their current IS development efforts. The
factor [15] [16] [17]. management concepts being recommended include
viewing information systems as a business within a
Ever since the advent of management information business, managing the project resources via a
systems, top management support has been committee, developing strategic plans for IS project
considered necessary to fully exploit the benefits of development, adopting the contingency approach to
information technology systems but has barely been management and analyzing the organization’s project
effectively practiced and infact, has been religiously portfolio [7] [10] [13]. The problem lies with the fact
ignored. In 1968, Rockwell [1] argued that “a good that current Top Management Support practices are
MIS must begin at the top with the chief executive failing to have a significant impact on the behaviour
offer”. One year later, [2] Freeman (1969) suggested of the top management (boards and top managers),
to top managers that they “take an active personal thereby giving the top management the freedom to
interest: learning what advantages the computer can provide or withhold their support.
offer their organization, recruiting
Clearly, it is time for top management to get off the
talented specialist for the technical staff, encouraging side-lines. There is a need to link information systems
communication and interaction between technical and to business strategy to ensure that the business
’line’ personnel, and putting the new system to use in strategy is developed whilst keeping in mind the new
their own daily activities" . In 1972, Adams [3] information technology environment [14] [17]. The
claimed that "the successful implementation of an top management must become more informed,
MIS depends on the active and informed participation energized, involved and engaged with the information
of executive management". systems projects than before. Developing an active
framework for top management support and
Management support, rather than hardware, software engagement is highly desirable and needed in
or technical expertise, has been recognised as the organizations of any size [1].
missing ingredient in the recipe for successful IS
projects [4]. It has also been observed that the top This paper investigates the issue of Top Management
management is not well informed about how they Support from the perspectives of the most relevant
should provide support to an IS project. Despite the stakeholders (boards and top managers). The paper
fervent calls for top management support and addresses the fundamental issue about the importance
instinctive evidence in IS literature, little is known of top management support and how it influences
30
An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Top Management Support and Project Success
project success. To manage the scope, the paper has There is no strong correlation between project
studied Top Management Support in context of management success and project success [34] [35].
Information Systems (IS) projects only [8] [9]. While project management success is an operational
concern and is of little interest to top managers, it can
II. METHODOLOGY attract critical attention if a project is highly over-time
and over-budget that it nullifies the business benefits
A methodological review of past literature is a highly [36] [37]. On the other hand, project success is about
critical step for academic research. The literature being able to identify and realise the correct business
review approach was used as the preferred method for benefits. This has a direct correlation with effective
conducting research as this approach is deemed most corporate governance from a top management level
appropriate for understanding the current IT project perspective [38] [39] [40] [41]. Additionally, the core
management practices, how to evaluate IT project objective of corporate governance is to achieve an
success, the different success criteria as well as the above average performance [40] [41]. It is also
influence of project management support for essential to focus on change and benefits
delivering a successful project. A range of academic management. It usually takes a long time for business
publications, journals, & case studies were analysed, benefits to be realised from an Information System
synthesized, and evaluated to investigate the investment, thereby, a majority of the benefits of an
interaction between top management support and Information System investment are realised after a
project success. project team has been dissolved [42] [43] [44]. This
further indicates that project success is the key
III. LITERATURE REVIEW responsibility of top business managers rather than the
project manager.
Over the years, a range of methodologies have been
developed and practised to address technical issues Literature also provides evidence that if top
and project failure factors [5] [18]. The adoption of management can sustain their vision and mission
these strategies and methodologies has increased about what has to be achieved, then they would be
rapidly over many decades but their extensive use has able to realise more business benefits in future [45].
not led to a reduction in Information System project However, these insights are rarely put to practice in
failure rates, it has rather been inconsistent [19] [20]. real life. Research has shown that since decades the
It has been found that common approaches to be of top concern for Information System directors has been
little use and of limited practical utility in coping with to meet project deadlines and additionally, top
Information Systems project problems while others managers have largely not paid any attention on the
have complained that they are not useful enough realisation of benefits [8] [46-52]. Research bodies
against the objective measures of performance such as have tried identifying factors that are required for
business profitability [21] [22] [23] [24]. project management success, known as the critical
success factors. Conventionally, top management
Since long, it has been advocated that Information support has been recongnised as one of the many
System projects tend to fail more often due to critical success factors, despite this its importance has
organizational issues rather than technical issues. been underestimated in the past [14] [53] [54].
However, majority of Information Systems Research also suggests that continued high failure rate
researchers and practioners believe it is the indicates that the very essence of the top management
technological or engineering concept which is the support problem has not been captured and realised.
problem and end up wasting millions of dollars each In the past, the Standish Group [55] had listed 10
year by making the same mistakes [25] [26] [27]. critical success factors for project success, which have
Defining project success is extremely critical and a been widely cited and have been constant with
notable barrier to project progress is the lack of well- academic research work. A research carried out by
defined definitions of project success or failure [28] Young and Jordan [44], summarised those 10 critical
[29]. It is essential to recongise and understand the success factors into 5 main themes weighted
difference between project success and project according to the importance suggested by the Standish
management success. Project success is about weightings, they are as follows:
realisation of business benefits while project 1. “Project Methodologies (35) - which includes
management success is achieved if the project is clear statement of requirements, proper planning
delievered on-time and on-budget [30] [31]. Few and setting smaller project milestones.
clearly recongise this fundamental difference while 2. User (25) - which includes user involvement and
for others the story is quite different. This has resulted ownership.
in many Information System projects being 3. Top Management Support (16)
considered a failure since business benefits could not 4. High Level Planning (13) - which includes setting
be realised (even when the projects were on-time and realistic expectations, having a clear vision and
on-budget) [32] [33]. clear objectives.
31
5. Project Staff (11) - which should ideally be IV. SUMMARY OF LITERATURE

competent, focussed and hardworking. “ [44]
The literature suggests that one of the main reasons
It is very essential to different between the project why top management support is usually ignored is due
success and project management success factors to to the fact that top managers don’t know the best (and
avoid Information Systems project failure in future the most useful) way to recognise good advice [44].
[44]. A research condusted by Young and Jordan Another interesting key insight from the project
summarised literature on the top management support management literature is that the top priority for top
advice by scope and success criterias for the top managers must be to focus on realisation of benefits.
managers [44]. It is interesting to note that most of the This also aligns with demands of corporate
research papers and articles offer advice about Top governance. However, the literature research done on
Management Support are targeting IS in general and top management support doesn’t focus on the
IS projects and none of them focus on IS functions realisation of the business benefits. Some research
because that being a specialist area than being a top papers also indicated that the benefits and the role of
management concern [44]. On the other hand, many top management support has not been put in spotlight
articles adopted criteria for success that might not be because it would potentially result in technical experts
of direct interest to the top managers, criterias like - losing their power [71] [72].
user satisfaction, project management success and
technical quality. Few papers provide examples of The ramifications of this are very significant as board
casual models of how Information Systems delivers and top managers are dependent on the advice they
value to an organisation [56-62]. receive [44] [73]. In one research study, a senior
board member made the evaluation that with
Garrity [10] recommended that “top managers must technically skilled elite people, the only three things
devote time to the IS project in proportion to its cost one can be sure of are - nothing would ever get
and potential to impact, the plans must be reviewed finished on time, the cost would always be vastly
constantly by top managers and they must follow up more than predicted, the business benefits would
on results. The top management problems involved never be realised and the project would never do what
with integrating computer systems must be facilitated it was promised to do [44] and [74]. This viewpoint is
with the management process of the business. [10]” very severe and is notable because it indicates that it
failed to distinguish between project management
Few researchers have encouraged top management to success and project success and declares that future
“actively identify and focus investment on the most advice must be reliable.
strategic areas for the organisation “[11] [44] [63-65].
On the other hand, few researchers have emphasised Insincere support has been given to the need for Top
on the need to ensure that delivering of anticipated Management Support in the past, despite this there are
benefits is the responsibility of the operational still many instances of successes. It would be
managers [76] [77]. Sharma and Yetton [62], unsuitable to suggest major changes in the current
highlighted upon the need for “management meta- practice unless a stronger evidence supports that the
structuration” [44]. It was found that [44] with an current practices pertaining to Top Management
increase in task interdependence in a project, the Support are wrong in its emphasis. Therefore, it is
instituitional context barriers increased and they can very critical to evaluate whether challenging the status
be overcome by - “new support structures, new quo is justifiable or not [44].
performance control systems, new coordination
mechanisms and lastly, change in performance goals. V. CASE STUDIES ANALYSIS
[44] [62]” Beat [68], in her research, said that “top
managers as project champions are sometimes the A research conducted by Young and Jordan [44],
most important precursor to successful explored and evaluated the importance of Top
implementation because of their ability in bring about Management Support against other commonly used
organisational change”. Morton [69] later identified Critical Success Factors. The research defined top
the project champion skills to be - “encouraging management support as - ‘devoting time to the
public opinion, reconciling stakeholder conflicts, and Information System program in proportion to its cost
winning the hearts and minds of the project team” and potential, reviewing plans, following up on results
[44]. and facilitating the management problems involved
with integrating ICT with the management process of
Over the years, little has been done to gather these business.’ The study attempted by them assumed the
insights in a proper systematic way and even today, above activities to be undertaken by a senior
research articles are being written and getting management official i.e project sponsor, the CEO and
accepted about “ top management support for change also the other senior managers. The study used
as a lesson learnt [44] [70].“ Critical Success Factors as a lens to understand the
intricate organisational phenomena encircling
32
Information System projects. Five projects were

analysed wherein five key critical success factors This is also an interesting finding as it discredits the
were proposed to evaluate these organisations [44]: weightings suggested by Standish previously [55].
1. Project Methodology The literature review and case study analysis also
2. User Involvement suggests that project staff is not the most important
3. Top Management Support factor needed for project success. The quality of
4. High Level Planning project staff recruited is related to the quality of top
5. Project Staff management support provided. The case studies
research carried out by Young and Jordan [44] also
While one project was successful, another project supports that - user involvement, high-level project
failed and three projects were less successful than planning and project methodologies are not the most
intended. The summary being presented in Appendix - important critical success factors needed for project
Table 1 [44]. success. These factors are not perilous when looked at
from a top management perspective [44]. Top
The research suggested that Top Management Support managers play an important role in resolving user
is the most important Critical Success Factor because priorities issues and other conflicts.
few projects stopped making progress when the top
management didn’t provide adequate support or when It is also important to note that organizations don’t
the project sponsor resigned [44]. invest in Information System projects to just be on
time, on budget and satisfy users, but they invest in
This further supports the hypothesis of this research these projects to realize the core business benefits
paper that Top Management Support is indeed the [44]. Realization of business benefits is the
most important critical success factor. The responsibility of senior management and project
quintessence of top management support is related to sponsor or champions who are supported by the CEO
successful decision-making process to manage risks and the top management team [44]. Project managers
and also to effectively authorize the changes in are not solely responsible for realizing business
business processes. The top managers must work in a benefits because they usually leave once the project
collaborative manner with the project sponsors to has been delivered and are not present when the
effectively authorize business process changes, make business benefits are realized.
decisions and also mitigate project risks. The CEO
must also willingly engage when the project sponsor This has remarkable consequences for boards, senior
is not able to resolve issues or lacks the authority to management and project management practitioners.
make influential business decisions [44]. Board and top management must accept that they
have the highest influence on the success or failure of
CONCLUSION a project. It further implies that expert technical
advice has less impact on project success as
This paper provides evidence from past research previously believed because support is needed from a
studies carried out, that Top Management Support is business perspective rather than from a technical
the most important critical success factors needed for viewpoint. Lastly, it is important for project managers
project success. This provides further support to a must allow the projects to focus on project success
previous suggestion that says Top Management rather than project management success even though
Support is a ‘meta-factor’ that encloses other critical they themselves are not responsible for realization of
success factors [44]. business benefits and outcomes.
APPENDIX
Table 1 below represents the summary of case histories by critical success factors as analyzed by Young and
Jordan [44] in their research:
CSF Failure Partial Success Success

TechServ TechMedia ABS Agency SkyHigh
Strong sponsor,
CEO not
No sponsor, no Sponsor V. strong Strong sponsor,
involved
3. Top CEO resigned, CEO sponsor, CEO strong CEO
enough, some
Management involvement no passive, top not interested, involvement,
top managers
Support top manager managers no top manager top managers
involved but
interest passive interest involved
one very
passive
2. User No user Users very Some user Little user Users very
33
Involvement involvement, involved, some involvement, involvement, involved, high

low ownership ownership some low ownership ownership,
ownership unreasonable
demands
Tried to follow Detailed
Informal consultant consideration of
Followed
1. Project methodology, methodology organisation to
consultant No information
Methodology ‘‘jam it in and but agency customise
methodology
fix it later” lacked vendor
resources methodology
Realistic Realistic Realistic Realistic
Realistic
4. High-Level expectations, expectations, expectations, expectations,
expectations,
Planning detailed vision evolving vision detailed vision clear vision and
clear strategy
and objectives and objectives and objectives objectives
Junior staff
Best staff
Competent staff, (described as V. competent
picked for
5. Project Staff motivated to Competent staff 2nd eleven), staff, highly
project, highly
succeed highly motivated
motivated
motivated
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35
IOT PERSPECTIVES IN THE INDIAN AGRICULTURE SECTOR
KHIMJI VAGHJIANI
Sydney University, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia
Abstract - This paper explores the prospect of introducing a smart farming product solution i.e. FarmSight to solve India’s
existing low crop yield problems. India’s crop failure and low farm yield is an apparent problem with statistics from Food
and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations highlighting that the share of the agricultural sector in India’s economy
is progressively declining at a rapid rate and is currently less than 15%. Various factors come into play - climate change
issues like droughts and heavy rainfall are few of the main reasons for a high crop failure rate and low crop yield across
farms in India. As a result, there is a need to improve the agricultural practices in India to improve the efficiency across the
farmlands for a sustainable and diversified agricultural sector. In order to alleviate India’s low crop productivity problem,
harnessing the power of Internet of Things and Big Data Analytics, with a core focus on studying and collecting data about
the various elements of the crops and farms across the Indian landscape to deliver better farming practices is the key.
Benefits of this technological solution can be applied and implemented across the entire Indian landscape. Benefits include
but are not limited to improving the crop yield of the farms across India, accurate assessment of fertilizers needed, improved
water quality, improved soil quality, and overall improved crop health. FarmSight i.e. the product solution itself will perform
real time analysis of the farming field, crop quality, soil, and water quality and relaying that information to the farmer.
Thereby providing quick, real time updates to the farmers so that they are aware of the farm and crop conditions across their
farming landscape at all times.
Index Terms - Agronomical Data, Big Data Analytics, Internet of Things, Precision Agriculture, Smart Farming
I. INTRODUCTION Bengal [17] [18]. The top crops produced are: wheat,
rice, maize, and pulses. Out of the total agricultural
India was one of the founding members of the Food workforce, 31% are female farmers, while 69% are
and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations male farmers [11] [19] [18]. The total allocation for
(FAO) in the agricultural sector has rapidly increased to 24%
1945 and has since then come a long way from (year on year) and is estimated at USD 28.1 billion
initially being a low-income food-deficient country [20] [21]. Out of all total geographical land, 43% of it
[1] [2] [3] to now becoming a global agricultural is used for agricultural activities [14], and agricultural
powerhouse according to the World Bank [4] [5] [6]. sector is also responsible for providing jobs to more
Today, India is known for being highly self sufficient than 60% of the Indian population [11] [22].
in wheat and rice, while also exporting a variety of
food products [7]. According to the United Nations
[1] [8], India is also known to stock up to 60 million
tonnes of food grain buffers. Agriculture is highly
pivotal to the Indian economy [6] [9]. Currently, India
is one of the top two farm producing countries in the
world [10]. The agricultural industry itself is
responsible for providing 52 percent (approximately)
of the total jobs in India and its contribution to the
GDP is about 18.1 percent at present [11]. While
looking at the statistics, it is known that more than Figure 1. Indian Agricultural Industry (Source: Ministry of
70% of the rural households in India depend on Agriculture, Government of India)
agriculture as their source of living [12] [13] as it is
responsible for providing jobs to more than 60% of II. METHODOLOGY
the Indian population [14]. Indian agriculture has seen
incredible growth over the past few decades, wherein A methodological review of past literature is a highly
the production of food grain has increased from a critical step for academic research. The literature
mere 51 million tonnes in the year 1950-51 to a review approach was used as the preferred method for
massive 250 million tonnes during 2011-12, which is conducting research as this approach is deemed most
the highest ever since the independence [5] [15] [16]. appropriate for understanding the current agricultural
The agriculture industry is spread out across 43 needs of Indian economy, the underlying causes of the
percent of India’s total geographical area. Figure 1. problems, the current government and technological
below gives an industry snapshot of the Indian initiatives to meet the farming needs, and hence
agricultural industry [8], wherein the top crop propose innovative yet novel solutions to suit the
producing states are - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Indian market. A range of academic publications,
Gujarat, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and West journals, & news articles were analysed, synthesized,
and evaluated to propose an innovative approach to
36
IoT Perspectives in the Indian Agriculture Sector
solve India’s existing agricultural problems via especially droughts, which have led to crop failures
embracing IoT. and farmers committing suicides at a large scale in the
past in India [7]. This is also highlighted in Figure 3
III. LITERATURE REVIEW below.
A. Challenges in the Indian Agricultural

Landscape
Agriculture is highly dependent on natural elements in
India even today. If there is any variation in these
natural elements, then it has a negative impact on the
crop yield [27] [28]. Crop yield is known as the
amount of crop (which could be grains, vegetables or
fruits) that is produced per unit of fertile land [19].
The crop yield of the farms in India is one of the
lowest globally [29] [30]. According to a survey Figure 3. Key Priority Areas - Indian Agricultural (Source:
conducted by the Economic Times, India’s average Ministry of Agriculture)
yield in 2013 was 3075 kg/ha, which is lower than the
global average of 3257 kg/ha [31] [18]. This is also C. Smart Agriculture - A Government of India
highlighted in Figure 2 below [32] [24] [35]. There Initiative
are many underlying factors that are responsible for India is progressing towards becoming a digital
the low productivity. According to a report by the economy [21] [16] [37]. The Internet of things (IoT)
Economic Times [19], it is known that water is used is set to transform the digital landscape in India and
inefficiently for agricultural activities, which thereby the Government of India is extremely supportive of
affects the productivity. India is known to use 2 to 4 this cause [38]. The Ministry of Communication and
times more water for producing one unit of a major Information Technology released a policy on IoT in
food crop than countries like Brazil or China [32]. 2015 [17]. The draft policy gives further details about
the impact of digital transformation and IoT on the
Indian economy. IoT has the potential to automate
solutions faced by numerous industries, agriculture
being one of those key industries. The policy has been
made with the goal to make the Indian IoT industry
worth USD 15 billion by 2020 [14] and also increase
the number of connected device from 200 million
currently to 2.7 billion by the year 2020 [34] [11]
[18]. The policy initiatives by Indian Government are
Figure 2. Key Challenges in Indian Agricultural Industry highlighted in Figure 4 below [19] [42].
(Source: World Bank)
Most of the land used to growing pulses is not

irrigated and also the subsidies on power for the
agricultural sector sabotage the efficient use of water
as it incentivizes wastefulness and has expedited the
decline of water tables in India [14] [17] [7] [33].
Apart from availability of water, the soil quality,
efficient use of fertilizers as well as crop destruction
by pests are few of the key problems that the Indian
farmers are currently facing [34]. This is where Figure 4. - Farming Policy Initiatives by Government of India
(Source: Ministry of Agriculture)
techniques like smart farming, powered by Internet of
Things (IoT) can play a pivotal role in removing or
In the draft policy report enlists various elements
reducing the impact of these factors in India [35] [36]
about the digital transformation and the impact of IoT
[8].
on the Indian economy [1] [19]. The government of
India has also strongly emphasized on the vision of
B. Key Priority Areas
digitalization of the Indian farming landscape in
India must emphasize on sustaining the agricultural
section 5.1.6 [24]. The key focus areas identified for
environment while also focusing on the future
smart farming in the policy are:
agricultural productivity [5]. While over pumping of
water results in falling groundwater levels, on the
i) Precision Farming: It involves monitoring the
contrary, water logging has led to a build up of salts in
soil and analyzing the moisture levels, vibrations,
soils used for irrigation [22]. Climate change is
density as well as pests in order to detect patterns
another thing that needs to be taken into account,
for different agricultural conditions [24].
37
ii) Data Insights for Farmers: To give data connected and the information collection can be
analytical insights for conditions like looped in and exchanged via sensors [9]. This
requirements for storage conditions and pest information can then be made available to the farmers
control [24]. via means of a mobile application [4].
iii) IoT Enabled Farming Tools: This could help in The connected systems allow the farmers to have an
smart pest control and other insecticides [24]. integrated and multidimensional view of the farming
activities, which thereby enables a deeper
D. Global Smart Farming Industry understanding of the whole farming ecosystem. There
United Nation has predicted that the world population are many ways via which IoT can make agricultural
is expected to rise from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion farming more profitable and crop production healthier
in 2050. This also means that the food production than before. It includes deciding which crop to best
must be raised to feed the ever-increasing population grow on a specific piece of land or on a specific type
[35]. The agriculture industry is known to be of soil type [27], using IoT enabled unmanned aerial
responsible for the human needs (around food, energy vehicles (UAV) to smarter crop irrigation options
and shelter). Currently, the global agricultural using humidity sensors, water valves and monitoring
industry is comprised of less than 5 percent of the systems [29] to getting accurate weather forecasts in
combined GDPs of the world [36]. The bureau of real time and pre planning different agricultural
labor statistics predicts that the human employment in activities [28] to many other techniques.
the agricultural industry is projected to fall by 3
percent by the year 2022 [2]. In such a situation, Smart farming ecosystem comprises of the following
agricultural modernization is something that the [20]:
farming industry must look into in order to not only i) Technology Providers: This comprises of
sustain crop productivity but also increase the crop different provides encompassing - wireless
yield [39]. The key countries in the global precision connectivity to sensors, machine to machine
farming industry are highlighted below in Figure 5. solutions, data analytical systems, decision
[12] [47] [45]. support systems, smartphone applications as well
as geo-mapping applications [20].
ii) Agricultural Equipment Providers: This
includes tractors, robots, farm buildings, seeds,
feeds as well as being a proficient expert in crop
management as well as animal husbandry [20].
iii) Customers: The customers are foremost the
farmers, as well as farming associations and
cooperatives [20].
iv) Influencers: They are the market leaders who
influence the market, are responsible for setting
Figure 5. - Global Precision Farming Industry Snapshot prices into which the farmers as well as the
(Source: World Economic Forum) growers sell and market their products [20] [39].
Embracing IoT has uncovered new ways, which has The variety of stakeholders involved in the
enabled farmers to tap into the full potential of crop agricultural landscape is really broad and includes big
yield and productivity while also diminishing the businesses, financial companies, engineering
challenges that have led to crop failures or have companies, chemical enterprises, food retailers as well
hampered crop growth in the past [5]. In order to as various industry associations [20] [4]. Figure 6
understand how IoT can change the way farming is below shows various technologies involved in smart
done, it is important to understand what IoT is. farming landscape [20]:
Internet of Things is a technology expands the
boundaries and limits of the Internet connectivity
beyond digital devices to the realms of physical
objects [19]. IoT is responsible for enabling
communication between physical objects, digital
devices as well as other systems. The data that is
collected as a part of the process can be shared
between either - person-to-person, machines to
person, or machine to machine [32]. This data is
actually stored and managed using the cloud [1]. With Figure 6. - Key Technologies in Smart Farming (Source -
the implementation of IoT in the agricultural Beesham Research)
landscape, devices like remote valves, pest control
mechanisms, weather forecasts, storage of food, E. Benefits of Precision Farming
Precision farming or agriculture has been used in
monitoring system and transportation data can all be
many parts of the world and has been known to allow
38
farmers to increase their crop yields whilst using low ii) Managing fertilizer and pesticides needs for
amount of inputs like - water, seeds and fertilizers the farm via the application effectively.
[40] [42]. It maps out fields and deploys sensors iii) Checking and managing water levels and soil
across agricultural landscape to understand the crops health across the farm, and automating the
at a very micro level, the insights are further used to irrigation process.
safeguard resources and lessen the impact on the iv) Tracking harvesting records, and checking
surrounding environment [42] [40]. This model has warehouse and bin inventories for the same.
the potential to disrupt the Indian agriculture
ecosystem and also help farmers improve the
productivity and yield of the crops.
Precision farming uses a range of technologies, as
also shown in Figure 6 above. It makes use of
technologies like GPS services, servers and big data
to optimise crop yields. Data and ICT driven
decisions provide granular details about the farming
and cropping techniques [32] [6]. For machine to
machine systems, IT systems are used to collect,
collate, analyse the data about - soil quality, crop Figure 7. FarmSight Architecture
behaviour, machine status, storage tank systems and
remote sites. Farming professionals then use these F. Benefits Delivered
data insights to drive more efficient farming decisions This comprehensive product solution for FarmSight
and thereby improving the crop yield. Other benefits delivers a range of benefits, which not only
and advantages that precision farming can bring to the differentiates this product from the existing
agricultural landscape are - smart packaging of agricultural competitors in the IoT space, but also
fertilizers and seeds etc. provides the product a competitive edge in the market
since it is the first one of its kind. This product will
DISCUSSION impact multiple stakeholders involved with the project
in positive ways. The benefits delivered by the
Keeping precision farming techniques in mind while product can be grouped into - benefits to the farmers,
also analysing the challenges faced in the Indian benefits to agricultural stakeholders, and benefits to
agricultural landscape [1] [23], the proposed product the Indian agricultural sector and economy; which are
is FarmSight, and will comprise of a network of enlisted below:
different sensors across an agricultural farmland [5].
The sensors will have multiple uses, which includes - i. Benefits to the Farmers:
providing weather updates, monitoring the crop  Efficient water irrigation system and more
health, checking the level of water in the soil along control over water flow
with the level of nutrients and analysing the soil  Accurate assessment of fertilizers needed
health [22]. The pool of data collected is then sent to  Improved water quality managed
the servers, where it will be analysed and data driven  Improved soil quality, soil humidity
insights will be represented via forms of graphs, maps  Efficient and accurate pest control and
any other pictorial representation which is easy to monitoring
understand for farmers. Farmers can use the portal to  Better insights about weather forecasts and
access these data insights confidentially. Data can also better planning
be further analysed to do predictive analytics and  Improved evaluation of crop health
suggest more precise and efficient farming  Improved crop productivity
techniques.
 Accurate assessment of the level of nutrients
The proposed product FarmSight also has a mobile
in soil and crops
application, which is available to the farmers as also
 Efficient monitoring and controlling of food
seen in the conceptual design in Figure 7 below. The
storage and safety in warehouses
farmers can view the collected agronomical data
insights as well as predictive data insights via the
ii. Benefits to the Agricultural Stakeholders:
application. The farmers will also be notified via the
The different agricultural stakeholders involved with
mobile application for crop health alerts, pest control,
this project would include the following Indian
and warehouse inventory management alerts as also
government department and agencies:
shown below. Key mobile application functionalities
include:  Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers
Welfare, Indian Government
i) Viewing crop health details (nutrient levels,  Agricultural Technology Management
pH levels etc.) via crop scouting Agency
functionality.  Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana,
39
India Nations Population Division has also projected that

 Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana India’s population growth rate will be averaged at 0.5
 Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana percent a year between 2030 and 2050.
 Farming Associations and Cooperatives
The benefits to these stakeholders are:
 Reduced crop failure rate
 Increase in crop productivity
 Improved quality of farming practices in
India
iii. Benefits to the Indian Agricultural Sector and

Economy:
 Improved quality of farming practices in Figure 8. Target Market Traction Snapshot (Source - Census
India & Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India)
India
 Improved crop productivity India has emerged as one of the fastest growing
 Improved rate of India’s agricultural sector economies in the world in the past few decades [4].
in the Indian economy The GDP has increased at a rate of 6.6%, as reported
by International Monetary Fund (IMF) [4]. With the
The raw data can be utilized by the stakeholders to increase of income levels and diversification of diet
track, estimate, and/or predict the following patterns, food consumption levels in India are rising
information, which in turn is beneficial to their per person for dairy products, fruits and vegetables
respective organizations: [23].
i) Predictive insights about crop health
ii) Predictive insights about development of In conclusion, there is a huge potential for the growth
pathogens or fungus on plants of smart farming initiative in the Indian agricultural
iii) Predictive irrigation insights landscape. The increasing food demands as well as
iv) Analyse crop growth trends and patterns need to improve falling crop productivity can both be
v) Analyse and aggregate the data about tackled with the precision farming initiative.
different farming practices across Indian
landscape H. Demand of Indian Agricultural Products
According to the World Population Statistics [2],
G. Business Environment - Target Market & India’s population is expected to reach 1.39 billion by
Traction the year 2021 [4] [2]. Population is one of the key
FarmSight is targeted at mid to high-income farmers demand drivers of growth of agriculture industry in
in India, which constitute about 0.1% of the total India. The graph below by the World Population
agricultural farming workforce, and the estimated Statistics [39] [20] [4], shows the growth in the Indian
market size is 1.2 million farmers [27] [16] [20] [50] population over years along with the future
[25]. FarmSight will also be targeting farming projections as well.
associations, cooperatives and foundations across
India [30]. I. Growth Drivers in the Indian Agricultural
According to a report by Yale University Climate Landscape
Connections and United Nations, it is projected that India is a strong player in the global agricultural
the world must produce 60% more food to meet the industry and there are three key drivers that are
demands of the ever-growing population along with driving growth in this sector [2], which are: Demand
the shifting and more diverse patterns of consumption. Side Drivers, Supply Side Drivers and Policy Support
The Australian Trade and Investment Commission has Drivers [2]. The demand side drivers include a rapid
predicted that the demand for Indian agrifood will increase in income and population growth as also
increase by 136 percent by 2050. The strong discussed before. It also includes an increase in the
economic growth in India is expected to continue over number of exports across India and also favourable
the coming few decades [1] [4] [2]. agricultural demo-graphs across the country [2] [4]. A
Figure 8 below shows the estimated traction in the lot of emphasis has been given on the policy support
target market in India [17] [18] [19] [51]. Currently and government initiatives that support farmers and
there are 482 million farmers in India [12] [13], and smart farming initiatives. These schemes are also
this industry is growing at 0.2% each year [38] [15], aimed at increasing the minimum support price and
and the growth in the Indian agricultural workforce is grow the institutional credit for farmers [4].
estimated to be ~600 million farmers by 2020 [51]. Lastly, on the supply side drivers, initiatives like
There are many drivers of food demand and mechanization, technology driven farming, hybrid and
consumption in India, and this has increased rapidly genetically modified seeds and green revolution in
over the past few decades as reported by the India has spurred growth across the Indian
Australian Department of Agriculture. The United
40
agricultural landscape [2]. expansion during the initial product deployment roll
out phase [50] [53].
J. FarmSight - Target Customers
FarmSight will be targeting mid to high income To conclude, it is evident from above that agricultural
farmers across the Indian agricultural landscape, activities is the highest source of income for farmers
which can derive maximum benefits for this product across the Indian landscape, and hence providing a
solution, and will be able to implement and use it well precision farming product to mid and high income
[15] [49]. Mid to high-income farmers in India farmers is a must to improve the crop yield and
constitute about 0.1% of the total agricultural farming productivity of farmlands [50]. The low income
workforce, and the estimated market size is 1.2 farmers can be targeted at a later stage, to reach out
million farmers [51] [48]. This is also shown in Figure and provide this technology product solution to cater
9 below. FarmSight will also be targeting farming to their farming needs as well [53].
associations, cooperatives and foundations across
India [21] [51] [19]. K. Existing Players in Global Precision Farming
Landscape
Several competitor products exist in the market. There
are three direct competitors for FarmSight in the agri-
tech precision farming landscape, which is discussed
below in details.
a) FarMobile: It is a US based farm data

company, which helps farmers take ownership of their
data immediately. Their product offerings are not only
Figure 9. FarmSight Target Market (Source - Census India) used to store and share but also to sell valuable
agronomic and machine data to interested third
To get deeper insights into the agricultural income parties. The whole essence to realise that data is the
across different households in India, Table 1 below most important element that a technology enabled
shows the income sources for different farming farm produces in today’s disruptive world [40] [31].
households across India [35] [24], and agricultural
activity [2] [3] is the biggest source of income for The product offering, namely PUC, is used to
farming households wherein 91% of the households collection data, which can digitally transform the way
have been reporting having income coming from farming is done. The data is then used to boost
agriculture as the source [24]. operational efficiency along with going deeper to get
new insights from an agronomical perspective [41]
[20]. The data and insights are available to farmers via
the FarMobile Application, which organises the
insights as dashboards and reports for analytical
purposes and use [20].
b) OnFarm: It is a software-as-a-service (SaaS)

company with a range of farm hardware technologies
- which are used to collect data from farmland sensors
and devices, the data collected is then analysed to
Table 1. - Income Sources for Farming Households in India perform data driven decisions, do farm wide
(Source - Ministry of Agriculture, India) scheduling, and give alerts to farmers [5].
Other sources of income include non-farm business
c) Farm(X): This organisation focuses on
related activities, which share 24.4% of the total
precision irrigation management. The FarmX sensors
income share, and also is the second largest source of
are used to measure water stress by measuring the
income for farmers after agricultural activities [4]
plant, soil, and environmental variables. Then the data
[52]. It has been observed that agriculture is a major
collected is used to do predictive analytics to deliver
source of income for the lower 20% of the households
real time irrigation insights, which can be effectively
in India [52] [28] [2], which accounts for almost half
used to not only save water across farmlands but also
of the total income of these farming households [8]
increase the crop yield and productivity [3].
[53].
L. FarmSight - Competitive Edge
Additionally, it is known that the following states are
The main competitors to the proposed product
the top crop producing states in India [43] [29], and
solution i.e. FarmSight have been discussed in details
the product roll out would target the following 6 states
above. The competitors have strong product features
- Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Karnataka, Gujarat, and
and provide a range of high quality services for data
Rajasthan. These six main states would the focus of
41
collection, insights, and management. However, the farmers in the Indian agricultural landscape. Thereby
competitors don’t provide many additional features to improving the crop productivity as well as positively
measure the crop health, nutrient levels, insights about impacting the Indian agricultural brand on a global
pest and pathogen control management, agri-bots for front.
farm-work, survey drone management, and also
warehouse management capabilities. ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Apart from the farming sensors (as also provided by We would also like to show our gratitude to the Dr.
our competitors), the proposed product i.e. FarmSight Bernhard Scholz, Associate Professor, University of
will also provide warehouse sensors, which keeps a Sydney for sharing his pearls of wisdom with us
track record of the stock inside the warehouse for - during the course of this research.
crop, pesticides, and fertilizers. Farmers are notified
via the mobile application if a certain product or crop REFERENCES
is getting depleted along with suggestive measures i.e.
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
43
ADVANTAGE OF MAKE-TO-STOCK STRATEGY BASED ON LINEAR
MIXED-EFFECT MODEL
1
YU-PIN LIAO, 2SHIN-KUAN CHIU
1
Chairman’s Office, Winstar Display Corp., Taichung, Taiwan
2
Ph.D. Program of Business, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan ,
3
Department of International Trade, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan
E-mail: 1panjc@winstar.com.tw, 2skchiu@fcu.edu.tw
Abstract- In the past few decades, demand forecasting becomes relatively difficult because of the rapid changes of world
economic environment. In this research, the make-to-stock (MTS) production strategy is applied as an illustration to explain
that forecasting plays an essential role in business management. We also suggest that linear mixed-effect (LME) model
could be used as a tool for prediction and against environment complexity. Data analysis is based on a real data of order
quantity demand from an international display company operating in the industry field, and the company needs accurate
demand forecasting before adopting MTS strategy. The forecasting result from LME model is compared to the common used
approaches, times series model, exponential smoothing and linear model. The LME model has the smallest average
prediction errors. Furthermore, multiple items in the data are regarded as a random effect in the LME model, so that the
demands of items can be predicted simultaneously by using one LME model. However, the other approaches need to split
the data into different item categories, and predict the item demand by establishing model for each item. This feature also
demonstrates the practicability of the LME model in real business operation.
Index Terms- Forecasting, linear mixed-effect model, make-to-stock, order demand, production strategy
I. INTRODUCTION production strategy to a high-mix low-volume

business operation model. Because inaccurate demand
Demand forecasting is crucial for supply chain forecast is a concern for high-mix low-volume
management. Production planning, inventory enterprises, the MTO production strategy is typically
management, and manufacturing scheduling are adopted. However, this production pattern increases
typically formulated according to short- and long-term financial risks and requires a long delivery time,
expected demand [1]. To reduce the occurrence of making centralized production difficult, which
delivery delays caused by the “crowding out” effect of subjects production lines to frequent changes,
manufacturing processes, contemporary enterprises resulting in high operating costs and low product
have gradually changed their production patterns from quality. Complex operations are the primary cause of
make-to-order (MTO) to make-to-stock (MTS), and human error and low job satisfaction. Therefore, if the
increasingly fewer enterprises are using the MTO inefficiency of the high-mix low-volume business
production strategy [ 2 , 3 ]. The MTO production operation model cannot be solved, then, despite a high
involves commencing product production only after business revenue, business operation costs would
the customer places the order. The MTS production increase rapidly, product quality would reduce, and
pattern entails a stocking-up production, in which a employee job satisfaction and customer satisfaction
company manufactures products and stores them in would decrease, which result in that business
inventory before customer orders are received. development would stagnate. Therefore, the
Subsequently, the company sells its stock as customer forecasting method proposed in this study can provide
places orders. If a company receives orders requesting a crucial basis for transitioning from using the MTO
a high mix of products but in low volumes, it must be to the MTS production, and may offer a viable
capable of forecasting their order demand accurately solution for improving the business operation
before attempting an MTS production strategy. performance of high-mix low-volume enterprises. The
Accordingly, the advantages of the MTS production application and improvement of the proposed
strategy—including quick delivery, arranging a long- forecasting method can assist researchers with
term manufacturing schedule, reducing the stock understanding the characteristics of business
levels, and stabilizing product prices—can be operations and construct related business operation
realized. Worldwide, variation in customer demand models. Forecasting ability depends on crucial
has forced many manufacturers to adopt a high-mix information and reliable forecasting methods. In
low-volume production model. However, this type of recent years, demand forecasting has become
enterprise is not as efficient as a low-mix high-volume increasingly complex, primarily because the global
enterprise. Therefore, determining how high-mix low- economic environment has gradually changed. The
volume enterprises can enhance their business underlying reasons for this change can be explained in
operation performance urgently requires a solution. terms of the following four dimensions: volatility,
Hence, accurately forecasting order demand is a uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity (VUCA) [ 4 ,
fundamental to successfully applying the MTS 5 , 6 ], all of which have been shown to influence
44
Advantage of Make-to-Stock Strategy Based on Linear Mixed-Effect Model
demand forecasting [7]. Volatility means that new main production patterns: the MTO (based on
products are rapidly developed, product lifecycles are customer orders), and the MTS (based on production
shortened, customer preferences change suddenly, and capacity) [8]. From the perspective of customers, one
organizations are frequently restructured; competitive advantage of the MTS production is short
consequently, historical data diminishes in value. delivery time and quick response [9]. Therefore,
Uncertainty refers to unknown factors that cause identifying the types of products that are specifically
sudden shifts in demand, and these factors are suitable for the MTS production pattern or both MTS
generally regarded as outliers or interferences. and MTO patterns is a favored research topic in
Complexity means that the interaction of these management science [8].
influential factors cannot be modelled easily, and Regarding the influences of the MTO and MTS
ambiguity refers to fuzzy events and situations that production strategies on business operations, Hendry
cannot be quantifiably defined, leading to the loss of and Kingsman [10] showed that the MTS and MTO
key influential factors. In summary, according to the production strategies are mostly used for
influence of economics on demand forecasting, manufacturing standard and customized products,
developing a reliable forecasting method requires respectively. Regarding the attributes of orders, order
analyzing whether historical data can contribute to demand for MTS products is generally predictable,
demand forecasting, and whether the effects of whereas that for MTO products is irregular and
influential factors can be identified. To meet the unpredictable. Concerning production planning, MTS
requirements of modern forecasting methodologies, production lines operate according to forecast results,
this study proposed using linear mixed-effect models and the production line schedule can be adjusted
to perform forecasting. Linear mixed-effect models easily. However, the schedule of MTO production
have been extensively developed and widely applied lines is determined based on recent order demand, and
in various fields. However, no study has used this long-term manufacturing schedules are difficult to
model to forecasting in business operation. Linear determine. In terms of product delivery, enterprises
mixed-effect models are characterized by the that adopt the MTS production strategy can ensure
inclusion of temporal factors and explanatory rapid product delivery, thus maintaining high
variables and the analysis of their significance. customer satisfaction. The MTO production pattern
Accordingly, crucial influential factors can be requires long delivery times, and enterprises adopting
identified to forecast demand. These characteristics this strategy must communicate with customers to
fulfill the requirements of modern forecasting achieve consensus regarding product delivery time.
methodologies and can be used as the basis for Concerning product price, compared with prices of
companies to improve their operation efficiency and products produced adopting the MTO strategy, the
to develop competitive advantages. The following prices of MTS-produced products are relatively more
sections explore the influences of the MTO and MTS stable. Soman, van Donk, and Gaalman [8] indicated
production strategies on business operation as well as that the MTO production pattern is effective for
the role of forecasting in the MTS strategy, provides a handling orders requesting high-mix customized
review of the literature on forecasting methodologies, products; the production planning for the MTO
and summarizes the strengths and weaknesses of strategy must prioritize meeting order demands, while
commonly used forecasting methods. In addition, the production effectiveness is determined according to
proposed linear mixed-effect model as well as a crucial elements in the orders (e.g., the expected
method for model parameter estimation are delivery volume and number of delayed delivery
introduced. Subsequently, the order demand of a days). The goal of a company that manufactures MTO
manufacturer in central Taiwan is forecasted using products is to shorten product delivery times;
product type as a crucial explanatory variable. production efficiency emphasizes the importance of
Specifically, the linear mixed-effect model is applied capability planning, orders that are lost due to
to forecast the order demand for 20 individual product problems with manufacturing processes, and on-time
types. A 1-year forecast of monthly demand is product delivery. By contrast, the MTS production
reported, and three types of forecast errors are used to pattern is effective for handling uniform product
assess the forecasting ability of the model. The results specifications and less customized products, where
show that the forecasting ability of the linear mixed- production planning is determined based on product
effect model in an empirical analysis is superior to demand forecasting and production effectiveness is
those of a linear forecasting model, exponential production-oriented. Therefore, the goal of a company
smoothing method, and time-series forecasting manufacturing MTS products is to enhance product
method. availability, and its production efficiency emphasizes
the importance of inventory policy, finished goods
II. LITERATURE REVIEW inventory, one-off or batch production, and accurate
demand forecast. Rajagopalan [11] indicated that
A. Influences of the MTO and MTS on Business inventory costs are slightly higher for the MTS
Operations strategy than for the MTO strategy, particularly for
Modern production strategies primarily involve two one-off and batch production.
45
In summary, the MTS strategy relies heavily on the nineteenth century, and past studies related to such
accuracy of product demand forecasting. Because of model were then systematically compiled by Box and
accurate forecasting, the advantages of the MTS Jenkins [ 20 ] into a book. A time-series
production strategy, including short delivery time, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)
manageable long-term manufacturing schedule, and model integrates an autoregressive process and
stable product prices, can be realized. In addition, moving average process after obtaining a finite
accurate forecasting can optimize inventory levels; difference from time-series data. The ARIMA model
therefore, companies applying the MTS strategy can is used to estimate the correlations parameter between
effectively control inventory costs. Some researchers the time points of observed values, and the estimated
have explored the inventory policies and material parameter
control mechanisms in MTO production [12]. The
forecasting method proposed in this study provides a Table 1. CHARACTERISTICS OF F ORECASTING M
relatively accurate basis for forecasting random ETHODS . (○: YES ; △: YES FOLLOWING
MODIFICATION BY OTHER STUDIES
customer orders (demand) for MTS production.
B. Forecasting Methodology
Two main types of forecasting methodology exist: (1)
statistical methods; and (2) data mining and machine
learning [13]. Both types of forecasting methodology
are aimed at identifying the relationship between
influential factors (independent variables) and
research variables (dependent variables), and
identifying the effects of the influential factors on
research variables [7]. These two methodologies
involve distinct approaches to interpreting analysis
models. The statistical methodology is based on the
data derived from a specific mathematical model as values can then be used for forecasting. Subsequently,
well as unobservable errors. The machine-learning Box and Tiao [21] added other time-series influential
methodology avoids fitting data to a specific model factor to the ARIMA model. Pankratz [22] called this
and develops algorithms that are suitable for various model the dynamic regression model.
types of data. These two methodologies differ in their Linear regression models are a type of linear model
strengths and characteristics [13]. The statistical that are most frequently mentioned in statistical
methodology uses the probability distribution of analyses. Linear models assume that research
errors to infer the significance of the influential variables and influential factors are linearly related,
factors in a model. The reliability of inferences and thus can be used to explore the effect of
correlates positively with the mathematical model. influential factors on research variables. Furthermore,
The machine learning methodology uses the size of linear models assume that observation values are
forecast errors as a basis for selecting the optimal mutually independent; thus, this model is applicable
forecasting model. for analyzing data containing mutually independent
Several typical forecasting methods are introduced as observation values. If linear models are used to
follows, the characteristics of which are shown in analyze time-correlated data, i.e., the observation
Table 1. The exponential smoothing method was values being correlated over time, then unbiased but
proposed by Holt [14] and the statistical theoretical invalid model coefficient estimators can be obtained.
foundation for this method was established by Muth Consequently, the standard errors of the model
[15]. This method involves using a demand coefficient estimators would be incorrect, and
observation and predictive value in the current period problems regarding statistical testing within the
to determine the predictive value for the subsequent models arise, such as whether the model coefficients
period by using weighted mean. To date, the are significantly greater than 0, whether the models
exponential smoothing method has been widely exhibit explanatory power, and whether the predictive
applied to forecast demand under the bullwhip effect intervals are reliable in forecast analysis [23, 24].
[16] and to plan inventory control strategies [17]. Linear mixed-effect models can be considered as an
Moreover, the methodology for exponential extension of linear models. The linear mixed-effect
smoothing has been developed in recent years into models add random effects to linear models with fixed
one that incorporates the effect of influential factors effects. Hence, a model that has both fixed and
on the accuracy of demand forecasts [7, 18, 19]. random effects is called a linear mixed-effect model.
Wang [19] used a model selection method where Linear mixed-effect models are typically used to
crucial influential factors were included in the describe the relationship between research variables
selected model, and nonsignificant factors were and categorical factors with correlated observation
removed to avoid over-fitting the model. values. A characteristic of the mixed-effect models is
Time-series model was first developed in the that observation values at the same categorical level
46
have identical random effect values for dependent model in terms of the covariance matrix of the
variables; observation values at different levels have observation values. The single-level model involves
distinct values of random effect. This characteristic only one level, whereas the multilevel model involves
explains the correlation between observation values at at least two levels. The covariance matrix of the
an identical level. Therefore, linear mixed-effect multilevel model is more complex than that of the
models differ considerably from linear models. The single-level model. In practice, whether using a
mixed-effect model can be applied to data where single-level or multilevel model is more appropriate
observation values are correlated (e.g., longitudinal depends on the data structure of the observation
data, repeated measures data, and multilevel data). values. Although the covariance matrices of the two
However, linear models can be applied only to data models differ, the observation values of the various
where the observation values are mutually groups at a fixed level are independent of each other,
independent. In industrial operations, the pattern of and the within-group observation values are
data observations is often time-correlated. For intercorrelated. In the multilevel model, a group at
example, when forecasting monthly product demand one hierarchy level becomes the next level of the
or monthly inventory levels, the observation values hierarchy.
are correlated over time. Under such circumstances, The single-level linear mixed-effect model
the linear mixed-effect model is more accurate than developed by Laird and Ware [36] is expressed as
linear models for identifying statistically significant follows:
factors.
In the past 2 years, the linear mixed-effect model has
been broadly applied in various fields, such as the
timber industry [25], medicine [26, 27], and ecology where b i is a matrix that is independent of εi (index
[28], to identify crucial influential factors. In addition, i denotes the ith group at a single level), yi contains
numerous studies have established models for
ni observation values for the ith group, M denotes the
forecasting [29, 30]. However, in industrial
engineering and management science [24, 31, 32, 33], number of groups, β denotes a p -dimensional vector
no study has used the linear mixed-effect model to
make predictions by using time-correlated data or to for the fixed effect, b i denotes a q -dimensional
identify key influential factors. Therefore, in this vector for the random effect, Xi denotes an ni  p
study, a linear mixed-effect model was applied to
business operations to analyze the importance of covariance matrix for the fixed effect, Zi is an ni  q
influential factors, and to forecast product demand; in covariance matrix for the random effect, and εi
addition, the performance of the linear mixed-effect
model was compared with that of other methods, denotes an ni -dimensional within-group random error
which are the research contributions of this study. term. The variable εi obeys a multivariate normal
distribution with an expected value of 0 and a
III. LINEAR MIXED-EFFECT MODEL
covariance matrix of Λ i , and b i obeys a
According to parameter attributes, two types of effect multivariate normal distribution with an expected
exist in a linear mixed-effect model: fixed and random value of 0 and a covariance matrix of Ψ . The model
effects [34, 35]. In a linear model, the parameters are ε
assumes that εi and j are mutually independent
all fixed values and therefore its corresponding
covariates are referred to as fixed-effect parameters. (
i  j ); in addition, εi and b i are mutually
The fixed effect describes the true value of the independent. Therefore, considering Models (1) and
coefficient for an entire population, or the true value (2), the covariance matrix of the within-group
of the coefficient for a factor that can be repeatedly
observation values yi is expressed as follows:
tested under identical conditions. If a factor in a
model exhibits a random effect, then the factor is (1)
sampled from an entire population. The random effect Vi
where the nondiagonal elements of are not
is a coefficient of the factor; moreover, the coefficient required to be 0. Therefore, according to (3), Models
is a random variable and not a fixed value. The (1) and (2) allow the existence of the correlation
following section introduces the linear mixed-effect between observation values within a group. This is a
model developed by Laird and Ware [36] and the major difference that the two models have with the
estimation of model parameters, and describes how linear model.
the research variables are forecasted.
B. Estimation of the Model Parameters
A. Linear Mixed-Effect Model This section introduces estimation methods that adopt
In contrast to a multilevel model, a single-level linear the linear mixed-effect model: the maximum
mixed-effect model [36] was employed in this study. likelihood (ML) and restricted ML (REML)
The multilevel model differs from the single-level estimation methods. Regarding the ML method, the
47
estimates of ML estimators are those that reach the

maximum value of ML functions. By comparison, the
REML method is aimed at identifying the estimators ^
that exhibit unbiased characteristics. Therefore, Accordingly, lθ θ^ ( β ,θ) is the maximum value. Next,
estimators obtained using the REML method are ^
unbiased, whereas those derived using the ML method fix β in l (β,θ) as β , denoted by lβ β^ (β,θ) , to obtain
could feature either biased or unbiased property.
Therefore, most researchers prefer the REML method a θ that maximizes the value of lβ β^ (β,θ) , where
[34, 35]. We introduce the estimation procedures for
both of these estimation methods, although only the
REML method was used in this study.
First, the model β coefficient and covariance matrix
of observation values Vi are estimated as follows. In
Models (1) and (2), the expected values of bi and εi where V1 ,..., VM are functions of θ . Typically,
are assumed to be 0; thus, the expected value of yi is lβ β^ (β,θ) is not a linear function for θ .
Xiβ (i.e., E (yi )  Xi β ). Because the covariance
Consequently, no analytical solution for θ exists, and
matrix of yi is Vi (i.e., Var (y i )  Vi ) and because bi an algorithm must therefore be used to obtain a
and εi obey an independent multivariate normal numerical solution for θ . Commonly used algorithms
distribution, the marginal distribution of yi is a include the expectation-maximization (EM)
multivariate normal distribution expressed as follows: algorithm, Newton’s method, and Fisher’s scoring
y i N ( Xi β, Vi ) algorithm. Previous studies have described these
algorithms in detail [36, 37, 38], including a
The ML function is expressed as follows: comparison of their strengths and weaknesses [35].
 ni An algorithm can be used to obtain a numerical
M 2 1 ^
L(β,θ)= (2 ) det  Vi  2 solution for θ (i.e., θ ), the result of which can be
i 1 ^
 1  converted to V i . Subsequently, the calculation is

 exp   ( y i  Xi β)T Vi1 ( y i  Xi β)  performed iteratively by using Equations (4) and (5)
 2  ^ ^
where θ denotes the set of V1 ,..., VM . To facilitate until the values of β and θ converge.
differentiation, the natural logarithm of the ML REML estimation method The REML method is
function is used instead of the ML function to another approach for estimating θ . The REML
evaluate the ML and REML estimators, and define estimate of θ is obtained by applying an iterative
l(β,θ)  ln L(β,θ) . method to a restricted natural-logarithm ML function.
ML estimation method The ML estimates of β and θ
are the values that maximize l (β,θ) and thus are also
the values that maximize L(β,θ). Calculating the
maximum value of l (β,θ) is challenging. Typically,
^
let θ  θ , and evaluate the value of β such that it

lθ θ^ (β,θ) ^ Regarding the difference between the restricted
maximizes . Subsequently, let β  β , and natural-logarithm ML function (6) and Equation (5),
calculate the value of θ such that it maximizes the Equation (6) accounts for the loss in degrees of
lβ  β^ (β,θ) freedom. Therefore, the estimator of θ obtained using
value of . This process is iterated until the the REML is an unbiased estimator. The REML
^ ^ method involves applying Equation (4) to obtain the
change in β and θ is within a tolerance error (i.e., estimator of β . For the REML, Equations (4) and (6)
^ ^
^ ^
the β and θ values converge). are iteratively used until the values of β and θ
^
Specifically, we first let θ be θ (equivalent to converge. Equation (4) is used in both the ML and
^ REML estimation methods to estimate β . However,
letting Vi be Vi , i  1,..., M ). Under these the functions employed to estimate θ (i.e., the ML and
^
REML methods use Functions (4) and (6) to estimate
conditions, yi obeys N ( X i β, V i ) . An analytical
θ , respectively) differ between these methods, and
solution for β can be obtained by using the ^
generalized least squares method. they thus yield different values for θ . In addition,
48
^ ^ niche markets. In recent years, the manufacturer’s
because V i is a function of θ , different values are profits have decreased despite an increasing revenue
^ ^
obtained for V i ; consequently, different β values are and market share. Therefore, the manufacturer aimed
at changing its production strategy by adopting the
obtained through using these two methods.
MTS production strategy for some product types in
Estimating random effect parameters Given bi , the order to increase its batch production capacity, reduce
following equation can be derived from (1): its production costs, and improve its production
efficiency. In addition, the manufacturer believed that
y |b d N ( X i β  Z i b i , Λ i ) adopting the MTS production strategy would enhance
i i
where " d " represents "distribution equals" and Λi is Table 2. NUMBER OF ORDERS AND PRODUCT DEMAND
given by (2). Therefore, the generalized least squares

method can be applied to estimate bi , which is equal
to (  ZTi Λ i1Zi ) 1  ZTi Λ i1 ( y i  X i β ) . In the
i i
equation, Λi (a function of θ ) and β are true values.

Therefore, by substituting the ML or REML estimates
^ ^
(i.e., β or Λ i ), we can obtain the estimator of bi as
follows:
^ ^ 1 ^ 1 ^ customer satisfaction by ensuring the rapid delivery of

b i  (  Z Ti Λ i Z i )  1  Z Ti Λ i ( y i  X i β ) . customer orders, thereby providing a competitive
i i
advantage. Thus, being able to accurately forecast
product demand was crucial. Following evaluation, to
C. Forecasting Research Variables test the implementation of the MTS production
After the explanatory variables Xinew and Zinew have strategy, this study selected the top 20 standard
^ finished products that were most frequently ordered
been obtained, the estimates of β and bi (i.e., β and
between 2011 and 2013 by customers of the sample
^
bi ) described in the previous section can be used to manufacturer. As shown in Figure 1, these 20
standard products accounted for 20% of the
forecast the research variable yi . The predictive value
manufacturer turnover for standard products in 2013,
is as follows: with 86 orders placed in the same year. After
implementing the MTS production strategy, the
manufacturer planned to run production of each
product type once per month per year. Accordingly,
IV. A CASE STUDY the production frequency, cost of handling orders, and
frequency of changing production lines was reduced.
This study adopted a single-level linear mixed-effect Thus, its long-term production capacity plans can be
model to forecast product demand. In the case study, implemented to maximize the benefits of producing a
the sample was a leading professional industrial high volume of products with fewer runs.
LCD/OLED display manufacturer. This manufacturer
produces products that are critical components of A. Data Structure
various devices used in daily life and are applied in The data structure comprised 20 types of standard
various industries. Moreover, the company has an finished products. The monthly product demand data
international customer base. Table 2 shows the were collected from January 2007 to December 2013
number of orders, total product demand, average for each product type (see S1 Table). The historical
product demand per order, and quantity of finished data before 2012 were used to estimate model
goods from 2009 to 2013. Before 2013, the parameters, and the model was used to forecast the
manufacturer produced more than 5,000 product product demand for 2013 (January–December). Not
types, and the average quantity of products required in all 20 products were manufactured from 2007. The
an order was approximately 400. Thus, the historical data used to estimate model parameters
manufacturer is considered to be a suitable example of comprised 1295 observation values (64 observation
a business that produces a diverse combination of values on average for each product type). The product
high-mix products. lifecycle varied by year, and the product demand
A characteristic of high-mix low-volume varied by month. Therefore, year and month were
manufacturers is that they typically commence crucial predictors. For each type of product, the
production only after receiving a customer order. This monthly product demands in each month were related.
production pattern is typical of the MTO production In this study, the explanatory variables (year and
pattern, which is mainly adopted to serve customers in month) were added to the linear mixed-effect model
49
to analyze the monthly product demand data. where yi is a vector that denotes the monthly product
Regarding product sales, the product demand varied demand (the vector length is equal to the data quantity
by product type. Accordingly, product type was for product i); β0, β1, β2, and β3 denote the intercept,
regarded as a crucial categorical variable because of year, year-squared, and month for the fixed-effect
its influence in forecasting the product demand. In term; and bi 0 and bi1 denote the intercept and year-
this study, according to the characteristics of the
mixed-effect model, we used product type as a squared for the random-effect term. In Model (8), year
random-effect term and included the demand for each was considered as a continuous variable with 2007
product type in a universal model to used as the baseline. Month was a categorical
variable; therefore, the month term in Model (8) was a
dummy variable. The dummy variable for month had
11 indicator variables with a value of 0 or 1, and the
total product demand in January was used as the
baseline. Expressing Equation (1) as Model (8), the
fixed-effect explanatory variable Xi is a matrix
comprising a column of 1’s vector for the intercept,
year, year-squared, and month covariates. Thus, the
expression β =[ 0 1  2 βT3 ]T is a 14 × 1 vector,
where β3 is the coefficient of the dummy variable for
the month covariate and has 11 elements. To account
for the various product types, we chose the intercept
and year-squared covariate as the random-effect
explanatory variable, where the intercept was used to
account for the average difference of demands
between product types, and the year-squared covariate
Figure 1. Maximum total number of orders (2011– was used to consider the difference between product
2013). The plot shows that the accumulated demands decreased or increased over time. The
percentage of the maximum total number of orders explanatory variable Zi in the random-effect
from 2011 to 2013 is less than the turnover of
explanatory variable comprised the intercept and year-
standard products in 2013. The first 20 products
squared covariate, of which the coefficients are a 2 ×
accounted for approximately 20% of the turnover for
of standard products. The numbers in green denote the 1 vector expressed as b i =[bi 0 bi1 ]T . In Model (8), the
number of orders for standard products in 2013 year-squared covariate in the random-effect
corresponding to the horizontal axis. forecast the explanatory variable was also a part of the fixed-effect
demand for type separately. Subsequently, we explanatory variable, and was used to account for the
compared other commonly used forecasting methods. fact that the expectation of bi was probably unequal
Unlike the mixed-effect model, other methods did not to 0; thus, the assumption that bi in (2) was equal to 0
have a universal model to account for 20 unique
product types. Therefore, for the other forecasting was reasonable. The year-squared covariate was
included to prevent the annual growth trend from
methods, the data are required to be divided into
multiple data sets according to product type, and the being linear, which enabled the model to more
partitioned data are then applied to the forecasting accurately reflect the current situation. The year-
methods depending on the product type for analysis squared covariate is crucial to practical operations.
and forecasting. This approach substantially reduces The year and year-squared covariates added into the
the sample size, reducing the accuracy of the forecast. fixed-effect explanatory variable facilitated
establishing a grand model for the 20 product types.
The year and year-squared covariates for the fixed
B. Model Development
effect indicated the average growth trend for the 20
Product demand differed by product type, and thus we
assumed the demand for each type of product to be product types, whereas the random effect reflected the
mutually independent. In Model (1), which is the specific annual growth trends for each product type.
single-level model, random effect was set to be To forecast the monthly product demand for 2013,
2013 was used as the value for the year and year-
product type, thus yielding various random-effect
squared covariates. Both covariates and the target
coefficient for each product type. The model is
expressed as follows: month were input into the explanatory variable to
^ ^
form Xinew and Zinew . Subsequently, β and bi in (7)
^
were used to obtain the forecasted value yi .
50
C. Other Forecasting Methods according to each product type, and each data set was
Comparing forecasting methods is crucial in divided into 12 subsets (one for each month). For each
methodological studies [39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43]. The product type, no more than six observations from each
model proposed in this study was compared with month in the historical data were used. The pre-2012
commonly used statistical forecasting methods, monthly product demand data were used to forecast
beginning with the following linear model: the product demand for the corresponding months in
1
2013. The weighed coefficient was   ,
2( N  1)
where N is the number of observations for a month
(N ≤ 6).
Table 3. Linear Mixed-Effect Model Versus the Linear Model.
Finally, the model proposed in this study was
compared with a seasonal time-series model;
specifically, the autoregressive moving average model
(ARMA(2,2)12), which was considered to be a suitable

model because the data were not nonstationary time-
series data. The mathematical model for ARMA
( p, q )s is expressed as follows:
p q
(1   i B s  i ) Y t  (1   i B s  i ) t
i 1 i 1
where i is the ith order autoregressive process

coefficient, B is a backward shift operator,  i is the
ith order moving-average process coefficient, t is a
normally distributed confounding term, and s is a
“ - ”: p < .1; “ * ”: p < .05; “ ** ”: p < .01; “ *** ”: p < .001. seasonal parameter. Longitudinal data were collected
for each of the 20 product types. A time-series model
where  0 , 1 ,  2 , and  3 are regression coefficients was established for each of the 20 product types. In
and  3 denotes the coefficient of the dummy variable this case, the month was regarded as a crucial
for the month covariate, and  j is the error term. influential factor for forecasting and thus the seasonal
parameter s was set to 12, which indicates the
Model (9) (i.e., the linear model) includes only the existence of correlations in the data for every 12
fixed-effect term in Model (8) (i.e., the mixed-effect month. The samples were categorized by product
model); therefore, Model (9) was compared with type, yielding an average of 64 samples for each type
Model (8) to examine the differences when the of product. The parameters p and q were determined
random-effect term is present or absent in the model. based on the characteristics of an autocorrelation
A total of 1295 observations of monthly product function, a partial autocorrelation function, and an
demand ( Yj , j  1,...,1295 ) were used to estimate the extended autocorrelation function (p = 2 and q = 2).
coefficients in Model (9) and the significance of the Finally, the ARMA(2,2) 12 model was used to forecast
coefficients with P values. In the Results section, the product demand for each product type.
Models (8) and (9) are compared regarding forecast
accuracy and the P values. Table 4. Error Indicators for the Four Forecasting Methods.
Next, the model proposed in this study was compared
with the exponential smoothing method, in which the
product demand observation values Yt ’s and its
predictive values Ft ’s were used to obtain the
predictive values for the subsequent period by
calculating a weighted mean. The forecast formula is
as follows:
F t  1   Y t  (1   ) F t
where  is the weighted coefficient. To accurately

forecast the monthly product demand in this case, we
adjusted the exponential smoothing method to account D. Results
for two influential factors (i.e., month and product In this study, mean of absolute error (MAE), mean of
type). The data were divided into 20 data sets absolute percent error (MAPE), and root-mean-square
51
error (RMSE) were used as error indicators. The types, rendering its forecasting effectiveness inferior
definitions for these error indicators are provided as to that of Model (8). Regarding the exponential
follows: smoothing method, we considered product type and
n
M A E  n  1
 | F  Y | t t
month as crucial influential factors, which were used
t  1
n
as the basis for dividing the data into 240 data sets.
 1 F  Y
M A P E  1 0 0 n  | t
Yt
t
| For each product type, the pre-2012 monthly data
t  1
n
0 .5 were used to forecast the monthly product demand for
  1 2 
R M S E   n


t  1
( F t  Y t ) 

2013. In this manner, the exponential smoothing
where n denotes the number of months to be method was applied 12 times for each of the 20
forecasted (n = 12 in this case), Yt represents the true product types. In addition, less than six observations
product demand for month t of 2013, and Ft is the from the historical data were used in the exponential
forecasted product demand for month t. The fixed- smoothing method (for a given month, there were at
effect term in the linear model was compared with most 6 sets of data from 2007 to 2012); consequently,
that in the linear mixed-effect model. As shown in the risk of inferential error was high because only a
Table 3, the absolute values of the coefficients for the few observations were involved in the prediction.
explanatory variables in the linear mixed-effect model Regarding the seasonal time-series model
containing the random-effect term are greater (i.e., ARMA(2,2)12, we considered product type as a crucial
further from 0) than all of those in the linear model influential factor and divided the data into 20 data sets
except for April. In addition, the standard errors and P according to product type. For each product type, 64
values for all of the explanatory variables in the linear observations were used on average. The ARMA(2,2)12
mixed-effect model are smaller than those in the model was used to forecast the product demand for
linear model. Regarding the linear fixed-effect model, each product type by considering the correlation
compared with January in a given year, the product between the data for every 12 month. For both the
demand was significantly greater in May and exponential smoothing method and the ARMA(2,2)12
November (P value < 0.1), in July (P value < 0.05), model, the data were divided into subsets according to
and in March, April, and September (P value < 0.01). the product type and then used to estimate the
Compared with the linear fixed-effect model, the monthly effect of each product type. Accordingly,
linear model yielded less significant results. The although such procedure could consider the various
linear model is suitable for data containing mutually monthly effects for various product types and the
independent observation values. In this case, the interaction between product type and month, it
observation values for product demand were reduces the number of data observations involved in
correlated over time, thereby violating the assumption the prediction. In the linear mixed-effect model, 1295
of the linear model. Therefore, the standard errors and data observations were used to estimate the random
P values for the linear model (Table 3) are not valid effect for each product type. The number of data
estimates, whereas those for the linear mixed-effect observations used in the linear mixed-effect model
model are more reliable. Table 4 shows the error was considerably more than that used in the
indicators for the four forecasting methods. Because exponential smoothing and time-series models, which
this case involved three error indicators for each of could explain
the 20 product types, Table 4 presents the mean and
Table 5. Comparison of the Four Models.
standard deviation of the three error indicators. As
shown in Table 4, the means and standard deviations
of MAE, MAPE, and RMSE for the linear mixed-
effect model are lower than those for the linear,
ARMA, and exponential smoothing models,
indicating that, in this case, the linear mixed-effect
model is superior to the other three models. Regarding
the model comparison (Table 5), the predictive values
obtained through using the linear model to process the
correlated data are unbiased [23]. However, the linear
mixed-effect model (8) contains the random-effect
term, whereas the linear model (9) does not.
Therefore, in Model (8), the intercept and year-
squared terms differ according to the product type,
※1 This effect is nonsignificant
and thus the corresponding intercept values and
coefficients differ based on the product type. In why the linear mixed-effect model produced lower
Model (9), the covariate of product type is not forecast errors. In addition, in Model (8), the random
included in the explanatory variables, which generates effect of the interaction term for month and year-
identical predictive values for various product types in squared term was considered and the likelihood ratio
the same years and months. Thus, this model cannot test was employed to examine whether this term is
predict the product demand for the individual product significant to this model. The results showed that only
52
the random effects of the intercept and year-squared ^ ^
terms were significant, and the random effect of the Ft  max(Y t , 0) , where Y t denotes a predictive value
month term did not significantly enhances its derived from any method, and Ft denotes an actual
explanatory power for the data. Therefore, the random predictive value obtained from any prediction
^ ^
effect of the interaction term was not included in method). In other words, if Y t  0 , then Ft  Y t ; if
Model (8). ^
Y t  0 , then Ft  0 . Some link functions in
V. DISCUSSION generalized linear mixed-effect model can deal with
the case where dependent variable is restricted to
In summary, when applying the linear mixed-effect ^
model, all of the historical data were used in one Y t  0 [44]. However, the prediction intervals for the
model to predict the monthly product demand for each random-effects in linear mixed-effect model are well
product type, and to avoid problems resulting from developed [45, 46, 47, 48, 49]. It is useful to apply the
dividing the data into smaller data sets. In this case prediction intervals in business operations for
study, using the linear mixed-effect model enables knowing whether the random-effect exists.
manufacturers who adopt the MTS production
strategy to predict the amount of inventory they Implementing an MTS production strategy can
should stock. Furthermore, the model is more enhance the competitive advantages of a
effective in forecasting product demand than is the manufacturer, enabling the manufacturer to rapidly
time-series, exponential smoothing, and linear satisfy product demand, thereby reducing internal and
models. external transaction costs for handling orders.
Employing this strategy also enables high batch
Similar to the linear model, the linear mixed-effect centralized production and thus can reduce production
model is typically used to examine the relationship costs and assist manufacturers in negotiating with
between explanatory and research variables. Unlike material suppliers about the cost of materials. Because
the linear model, which assumes the observation this approach enables short delivery times, customer
values to be mutually independent, the linear mixed- satisfaction can be improved, thus attracting potential
effect model is suitable for examining correlated data. customers who need products immediately.
Because the data pertaining to business operations are Consequently, market share can be increased. MTS
generally correlated over time, the linear model is production also enhances the usage rate of production
limited in applicability. By contrast, the linear mixed- equipment. Companies that adopt an MTS strategy
effect model was initially developed to handle require an accurate forecasting method to realize these
correlated data. Other methods such as the time-series advantages. This study proposed an accurate
and exponential smoothing methods formulate the forecasting method for determining the stock levels a
correlation between observation values as parameters, company should determine for adopting the MTS
and then estimate the parameters by data and forecast production strategy, a topic that has seldom been
the observations by the estimates. When the time- discussed in studies on MTS production.
series and exponential smoothing models were first
developed, these methods were not aimed at analyzing Using an MTS production strategy involves the
the relationship between explanatory and dependent potential risk of increasing inventory costs. Therefore,
variables. Wang [19] proposed an exponential future studies should adequately apply the strengths of
smoothing method that included explanatory variables the linear mixed-effect model (e.g., accurately
and can be used to explore the association of research forecasting demand for multiple product types in one
variable. Because this method is a relatively new go) when forecasting. Future studies should consider
development, most of statistical software packages investigating whether the forecasting intervals of the
have not yet incorporated related functions, and thus linear mixed-effect model can be coupled with
this method has not been widely used. By contrast, the various inventory strategies to assist manufacturers
linear mixed-effect model was developed more than with adopting the MTS production strategy in order to
30 years ago, and related functions have been develop an optimal business operation model in terms
included in various statistical software packages. of optimal inventory time points and minimal
inventory costs. In addition, to remain competitive,
Using linear mixed-effect, time-series, and linear companies should enhance their organizational
models to forecast product demand can yield negative capability for elevating the threshold that enables
predictive values. This phenomenon occurs when the competitors to develop similar operating models.
linear mixed-effect model is used because εi in (2) is Future studies are also recommended to explore the
assumed to be normally distributed and the link benefits that the MTS production strategy involving a
function is an identity function. Negative values are linear mixed-effect model brings to the various
usually obtained from historical data where product departments of an enterprise and the effects of such
demand is zero or very low. To prevent this, strategy on customer satisfaction and loyalty.
predictive value was truncated at 0 (i.e.,
53
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
55
ANALYSIS OF FLUID FLOW AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN
FLAT PLATE SOLAR COLLECTOR USING CFD
MUHAMMAD SHAKAIB
Department of Mechanical Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan
Email: 1mshakaib@neduet.edu.pk, 2mshakaib@live.com
Abstract - CFD simulations are performed to study flow and temperature patterns in flat plate solar water heater. Different
configurations with varying number and diameter of tubes are considered at various Reynolds numbers. The study shows
significant influence of these parameters on the performance of the flat plate heater. Some suitable configurations for better
distribution of flow and high heat transfer coefficients are identified.
Keywords - CFD, Solar water collector, Heat Transfer coefficient
I. INTRODUCTION found.The computational and experimental work of

Gertzos et al. [4] studied performance of a flat-plate
Solar collectors are widely used in residential integrated collector storage solar water heater
buildings and in commercial applications. The (ICSSWH). Facao [5] suggested that flow
advantages when compared to other types of heater maldistribution increases with high flow rates due to
are that these devices do not need fuel or electricity to increased inertial effects. To improve flow
operate. They operate from sun radiation energy distribution the research work indicated that outlet
without any emissions of harmful gases. Among the header manifold should have a higher diameter
various types, flat type collector is more popular due compared to the inlet header diameter. Absorber
to simple design, low cost and less maintenance. plates of different shapes were considered by Angel
In this device the incident solar radiation on a flat and Manuel [6]. The circular geometry resulted in
transparent surface is transmitted and is trapped by an higher thermo-siphonic flow rates. Fan et al. [7]
absorber plate. The trapped energy is used for heating numerically and experimentally showed that flow
fluids such as water. The main components of this maldistribution increases by increasing tilt angle of
type of collector are absorber plate, transparent cover, solar collector and inlet temperature. This can result
tubes for water flow, supper structure and insulating in boiling in the upper part of the collector panel.
sheets. Chiou [8] found that if the fluid flow distribution is
not uniform, the thermal performance of the solar
Although flat plate collectors are commonly utilized collector may deteriorate.
for heating applications, the limitation is high heat The previous studies show that fluid flow profiles in
loss factor. In order to improve the efficiency of the the solar collector affects the heat transfer rate. In this
device, the radiative and convective losses should be paper we study the effect of number of riser tubes and
minimized. In addition number of tubes and spacing diameter of the riser tube on the flow distribution in
should be sufficient and flow distribution should be the solar collector.
optimal so that maximum amount of energy is
absorbed by circulating water. Due to importance of II. MODELING PROCEDURE
fluid flow behaviour on performance of the solar
heating collector several studies have been conducted The geometry for analysis of solar water heater
by researchers. consists of a header tube and multiple risers tubes.
Gunjo et al. [1] studied the influence of inlet fluid and The number of tubes and diameter of riser tube was
surrounding temperature and solar irradiation on varied to study their effect. The number of tubes
outlet temperature and thermal efficiency. It was considered was 3, 5 or 7. The diameter of header pipe
observed that the thermal efficiency of the solar was 1 inch whereas the diameter of riser tube was 0.5
collector increases with ambient temperature, solar or 0.75 inch. The fluid was water with viscosity
insolation, and mass flow rate of water. However the varying with temperature. The absorber plate was 5
efficiency decreases as inlet water temperature mm and of copper. The simulations were performed
increases. Gunjo et al. [2] in another paper modeled with different values of Reynolds number. The
bent riser tubes. Maximum efficiency of 71% was Reynolds number was based on diameter of header
obtained with 60°C outlet temperature for the pipe. Constant heat flux of 1000 W/m2 was assumed
investigated solar collector. Selmi et al. [3] analyzed on surface of the absorber plate.
flat plate solar energy collector using computational The differential equations of continuity, 3D
fluid dynamics (CFD) software. The outlet momentum and energy equations along with
temperature of water was compared with boundary conditions were solved using finite volume
experimental results and satisfactory agreement was method of a commercial code ANSYS FLUENT.
56
Analysis of Fluid Flow and Temperature Profiles in Flat Plate Solar Collector Using CFD
Fig. 1. Computational grid for solar water heater
Table I: Grid independence results (b)

Fig. 3. Temperature contours (a) 3 tubes (b) 7 tubes, Re = 275.
No. of Cells Pressure drop (Pa)
320000 1.926 Table II Mass flow rate from different tubes.
-4
No. of Diameter Mass Flow Rate (× 10 , kg/s) at different outlet
Re
480000 1.946 tubes (m) pipes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
800000 1.944 3 0.0125 17.21 16.68 16.41 x x x x
5 0.0125 10.82 10.29 9.93 9.73 9.65 x x
275
5 0.019 13.14 10.94 9.53 8.62 8.19 x x
7 0.0125 8.11 7.64 7.3 7.05 6.87 6.75 6.67
3 0.0125 24.96 24.33 24.14 x x x x
5 0.0125 15.64 14.93 14.51 14.29 14.24 x x
400
5 0.019 18.59 15.69 13.95 12.91 12.48 x x
7 0.0125 11.71 11.05 10.61 10.31 10.1 9.95 9.87
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The computational grid / mesh for a particular case if

shown in Fig. 1. The mesh contained about 500,000
cells of triangular or hexahedral type. This number of
(a) cells was found to provide grid independent results.
The pressure drop values for the geometry containing
7 tubes and Re = 400 at different number of cells is
given in Table 1. It can be noticed that the pressure
drop values are almost same when cells are increased
from 480,000 to 800,000. The difference is less than
1 %. The results are also compared with a previous
study. The contours of velocity and temperature in
our work were found to be similar to ones obtained in
the paper of Gunjo et al. [1].
Table III Heat transfer coefficient for various cases.

Diameter of Reynolds Heat Transfer
No. of tubes
(b) tubes (m) number Coefficient
3 0.0125 8.20
Fig. 2. Velocity profiles (a) 3 tubes (b) 7 tubes, Re = 275.
5 0.0125 11.31
275
5 0.019 11.18
7 0.0125 14.18
3 0.0125 9.09
5 0.0125 12.35
400
5 0.019 12.30
7 0.0125 15.38
The velocity profile at Re = 275 is shown for two

geometries (one with 3 tubes and other with 7 tubes)
in Fig. 3. Since amount of mass flow at the inlet is
(a) same in two cases, the velocity rise is more when the
57
Analysis of Fluid Flow and Temperature Profiles in Flat Plate Solar Collector Using CFD
number of tubes is less. It can be seen that velocity in rise is relatively decreased due to less residence time.
header pipe continuously decreases due to turning of The paper also proposes that number of tubes should
fluid in the various riser tubes. This is more obvious be high for better performance of the device.
when the number of tubes is high. At the point when
flow turns, a separation / low velocity region is ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
created which is relatively significant in case of 3
tubes geometry. The size of separated zone increases The support provided by NED University, Karachi
with increase in Reynolds number. The temperature and Higher Education Commission of Pakistan is
distribution in the solar collector device is depicted in greatly acknowledged.
Fig. 3. The water gradually gets heated due to
imposed heat flux in all the riser pipes. When the REFERENCES
number of tubes is less, the local temperature rise is
more since the total heat flux is divided among less [1] D.G. Gunjo, P. Mahanta, P.S. Robi, CFD and experimental
investigation of flat plate solar water heating system under
number of tubes. The mass flow rates in the different
steady state condition, Renew. Energy 106 (2017) 24-36.
tubes are various tubes are given in Table 2. The [2] D.G. Gunjo, P. Mahanta, P.S. Robi, Exergy and energy
Table shows that maximum mass flow rate is in outlet analysis of a novel type solar collector under steady state
1 which is closed to inlet. The difference in mass condition: Experimental and CFD analysis Renewable
Energy 114 (2017) 655-669.
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phenomena, inside a flat-plate integrated collector storage
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29. 487-502, 1982
diameter of riser tube is high. When Reynolds
number / inlet velocity is increased the temperature

58

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SILVER PRICE PREDICTION USING NONLINEAR

AUTOREGRESSION NEURAL NETWORK FOR THAILAND SILVER

I. INTRODUCTION gained a lot of attention. Recently, machine learning

Figure3: Structure of the NAR models using only silver price

Figure1: Diagram of a feed-forward neural network

III. NAR MODEL FOR SILVER PRICE

In this part, we perform machine learning with time-

Figure5: Autocorrelation of the Error of the NAR models

Figure2: Normalized values of gold and silver prices.

We develop and compare two models to predict the

Figure 6: Response of output of silver price shows very good

Another example of the training performance of the

Figure7: Structure of the NAR silver price model using both

Figure10: Response of output of silver price shows very good

IV. RESULT AND DISCUSSION

7 4.1670×10-5 4.1778×10-5 4.1830×10-5

14 4.3820×10-5 4.3596×10-5 4.2664×10-5

30 4.2314×10-5 4.1956×10-5 4.2306×10-5

60 4.2487×10-5 4.3075×10-5 3.9949×10-5

7 4.3589×10-5 4.2591×10-5 4.2247×10-5

14 4.0843×10-5 4.0384×10-5 4.1720×10-5

30 4.1839×10-5 4.2745×10-5 3.9951×10-5

60 4.1761×10-5 4.1164×10-5 4.2370×10-5

CONCLUSION [3] T. Somboonwiwat, “Model logistics and supply chain

I. INTRODUCTION nitrogen/hydrogen-filled oven to reduce copper oxide

Figure 1: A typical cleaning cycle for as-coated Cu NWs films

Figure 4: Principle of our combination technique for Cu NWs electrode

Figure 5: Cu NWs line after being transferred to PET

CONCLUSION Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry

Keywords - Some Weeds, Temperature, Carbone Dioxide, Plant Development

Keywords - Flaming, Cultivation, Sunflower, Weed Control

Keywords - Stevia rebaudiana, Melisa officinalis, Aromatic Compounds, CO2, Temperature

Integrated develop marketing solutions for real clients in various

Marketin 3.2. Major benefits of course integration

Advance develop pop-

Marketin Integrated experience fundamental concepts that tie the subdomains

Integrated strategic over a broader spectrum of marketing.” (F)

Industry multidisciplin subdomains of marketing in a functional context to

in the respective industry. “Focusing on a real client REFERENCES

Keywords - Melasma, Melanin Reduction, Vitis vinifera, Grape Seed

I. INTRODUCTION Latin/Hispanic, North African, African-American,

(n=20) Vitis vinifera Standard Cream Base

3.2 Discussion optimization of treatment parameters with

Keywords - Eyebrow Lifting, Abobotulinum Toxin, Different Dilution

I. INTRODUCTION effect. Relaxation of eyebrow depressors (obicualris

2015). Intradermal microbotox injection technique for

II. DETAILS EXPERIMENTAL Fig (2) Sites of measurement of brow height

2.1. Materials and Procedures Wrinkle at Crow’s feet were measure by

Mean brow high % (TTCD) P value

109.64±8.39 (Day 30), 107.39 ±5.87 (Day 0) and

Mean brow high % (TBCD) P value

Table (2) Percentage of brow high change in TBCD

±12.06(Day 60) and 107.101 ±6.83 (Day 90)

Mean brow high % (CBOD) P value

Fig (5) Percentage of brow high change between standard

3.1.8 Side effect evaluation

**** 3.2 Discussion

larger affected area when the toxin diluted larger-

Fig (9) Eyebrow lifting satisfaction score between standard

School of Information Technologies, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2008, Australia

I. INTRODUCTION about the required top management support processes

5. Project Staff (11) - which should ideally be IV. SUMMARY OF LITERATURE

Information System projects. Five projects were