Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629

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Automation in Construction
j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / a u t c o n

Estimate at Completion for construction projects using Evolutionary Support Vector

Machine Inference Model
Min-Yuan Cheng a, Hsien-Sheng Peng b,⁎, Yu-Wei Wu a, Te-Lin Chen a
a
Department of Construction Engineering, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan
b
Ecological and Hazard Mitigation Engineering Research Center, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taiwan

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Construction projects are influenced by a range of factors that impact upon final project cost. Estimate at
Accepted 24 February 2010 Completion (EAC) is an important approach used to estimate final project cost, which takes into
consideration probable project performance and risks. EAC helps project managers identify potential but
Keywords: still unknown problems and adopt response strategies. This study constructed an evolutionary EAC model to
Estimate at Completion generate project cost estimates that proved significantly more reliable than estimates achievable using
Fast Messy Genetic Algorithms
currently prevailing formulae. The developed learning model fused two artificial intelligence approaches,
Support Vector Machine
namely the fast messy genetic algorithm (fmGA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), to create an
Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM). The ESIM was then applied to estimate final
project costs for historical cases. Finally, using the EAC estimate, project cost influence indices, and project
cost diagrams, the discrepancy between estimate and practical values was examined to determine potential
problems in order to help project managers better control project costs. The learning results were validated
in real applications that showed good performance for training models. Providing project managers reliable
EAC trend estimates is helpful for their effective control of project costs and taking appropriate peremptory
measures to handle potential problems.
© 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction The Estimate at Completion (EAC) is a quick and automatic formula

Engineering projects face myriad uncertainties attributable to
chosen construction method as well as environmental and process
factors [1,2]. Construction firms typically focus only on budget
planning during the initial project stage, which ignores engineering
cost changes, information updates and cost management during
construction and, in turn, prevents effective project cost control and
the identification of potential problems. Cost overruns are frequently
not discovered until later project stages, at which time it is typically too
late to take effective remedial measures.
Effective project management requires that plans be constantly
revised in accordance with actual project conditions. However, factors
that influence project cost are numerous, and it is difficult to consider
individually each factor of influence at each stage. Moreover, data on
construction cost are manifold and variability is great. In order to
update cost information item by item in a timely manner, management
must adopt an efficient approach to the issue and invest significant
time.
⁎ Corresponding author. #43, Sec. 4, Keelung Rd., Taipei, 106, Taiwan. Tel.: +886 2
27301212; fax: +886 2 27301074.
E-mail address: hspeng@mail.ntust.edu.tw (H.-S. Peng).
used by managers to assess the cost of work to complete schedule
activities [1]. Many researches have already been done in this area and
the methodologies that the existing previous works used were various.
Barraza et al. [3] used the concept of stochastic S curves (SS curves) to
determine forecasted project estimates as an alternative to using
deterministic S curves and traditional forecasting methods. A simulation
approach is used for generating the stochastic S curves, and it is based on
the defined variability in duration and cost of the individual activities
within the process. Lee [4] introduced a software, Stochastic Project
Scheduling Simulation (SPSS), developed to measure the probability to
complete a project in a certain time specified by the user. The SPSS finds
the longest path in a network and runs the network a number of times
specified by the user and calculates the stochastic probability to
complete the project in the specified time. Lee and Arditi [5] described
a stochastic simulation-based scheduling system (S3) that integrates
the deterministic critical path method (CPM), the probabilistic program
evaluation and review technique (PERT), and the stochastic discrete
event simulation (DES) approaches into a single system. The system is
based on an earlier version of the system called Stochastic Project
Scheduling Simulation and makes use of all the capabilities of this
system. Kim and Reinschmidt [6] introduced a new probabilistic
forecasting method for schedule performance control and risk manage-
ment of on-going projects. The Bayesian betaS-curve method (BBM) is

0926-5805/$ – see front matter © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.autcon.2010.02.008
620 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629

Fig. 1. ESIM framework.

based on Bayesian inference and the beta distribution. The BBM data envelope analysis (DEA) approach to evaluate project perfor-
provides confidence bounds on predictions, which can be used to mances in a multi-project environment, which evaluates projects using
determine the range of potential outcomes and the probability of earned value management system (EVMS) and multidimensional
success. control system (MPCS) methods. Vanhoucke and Vandevoorde [11]
Earned Value Management (EVM) is one of the theoretical methods extensively reviewed and evaluated earned value (EV)-based methods
for determining EAC that was originally developed for cost management to forecast the total project duration, and investigated the potential of a
and later adopted to forecast project duration. Kim et al. [7] indicated recently developed method, the earned schedule method, which
that EVM is gaining wider acceptance due to increasing recognition of its improves the connection between EV metrics and the project duration
ability both to diminish EVM problems and improve utilities. A broader forecasts. Lipke et al. [12] provided a method to improve the capability of
approach was developed that considers the four-factor groups (i.e. EVM project managers to make informed decisions by providing a reliable
users, EVM methodology, project environment, implementation pro- method to forecast final cost and duration. Their method and its
cess) together to improve significantly the acceptance and performance evaluation made use of a well established project management method,
of EVM in different types of organizations and projects. Cioffi [8] a recent technique developed to analyze schedule performance, and
presented a new formula and corresponding notation for earned value statistical mathematics to develop EVM, earned schedule (ES) and
analysis that makes earned value calculations more transparent and statistical prediction and testing methods. Plaza and Turetken [13]
flexible. Vandevoorde and Vanhoucke [9] compare the classic earned
value performance indicators SV and SPI with the newly developed
Table 1
earned schedule performance indicators SV(t) and SPI(t), and then Influencing factors of construction cost.
present a generic schedule forecasting formula applicable in different
project situations and compare the three methods from literature to Classification Influencing Index Definition
factor
forecast total project duration. Finally, the use of each method was
illustrated on a simple one activity example project and on real-life Time now Construction Construction Duration to date/revised
duration progress contract duration
project data. Vitner et al. [10] investigated the possibility of using the
percentage
Actual cost ACP Actual cost/budget at
completion
Planned cost EVP Earned value/budget at
completion
Construction Cost CPI Earned value/actual cost
management management
Time SPI Earned value/planned value
management
Subcontractor Subcontractor Subcontractor billed amount/
management billed index actual cost
Contract Contract Owner billed Owner billed amount/earned
scope payment index value
Change order Change order Revised contract amount/
index budget at completion
External Construction CCI Construction material price
environment price fluctuation index of that month/
construction material price
index of initial stage
No. of rainy Climate effect (Revised project duration —
day index no. of rainy day)/revised
project duration
Fig. 2. EAC prediction model.
 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629 621

Table 2
Historical cases.

Project name Total area Underground Ground Buildings Start date Finish Duration Contract amount ESIM prediction Note
(m2) floors floors date (days) (NTD) periods

A 12,622 2 9 1 2003/12/1 2005/8/22 630 289,992,000 29

B 4919 3 11 1 2003/12/13 2005/11/10 698 149,300,000 24
C 19,205 5 8 1 2000/5/20 2002/5/19 729 332,800,000 20
D 5358 3 9 1 2000/11/15 2002/11/14 729 199,600,000 25
E 27,468 2 11 3 1999/12/16 2001/12/3 718 1,142,148,388 26
F 31,797 2 9 4 2001/7/4 2003/3/31 635 530,000,000 20
G 7707 2 14 1 2001/11/24 2003/10/20 695 153,500,000 22
H 10,087 3 14 1 2002/6/18 2004/7/6 749 216,000,000 27
I 3479 1 10 1 2003/6/2 2004/9/30 486 85,714,286 18
J 6352 4 11 1 2004/3/5 2006/2/18 715 202,241,810 31
K 4774 2 11 1 2004/2/21 2006/2/20 730 145,377,589 27
L 7289 2 8 1 2005/6/15 2006/9/15 457 190,844,707 20 Testing case
M 3094 2 7 1 2005/10/1 2007/2/28 515 102,500,000 17 Testing case
Total 306
Subtotal (training cases) 269
Subtotal (testing cases) 37

proposed an extended version of EVM (EVM/LC) that addresses the
effect of learning on the performance of project teams. A spreadsheet-
based decision support tool that automates calculations and analyses
was presented in EVM/LC. Leu and Lin [14] attempts to refine and
improve the performance of traditional EVM by the introduction of
statistical control chart techniques. Individual control charts are used as
tools to monitor project performance data in order to detect adverse
changes in a timely manner.
At least eight common methods have already been put forward that
use EVM to predict the EAC for construction projects [15,16]. Each has
been applied to different special projects and achieved differing EAC error
rates. When applied to different special projects, the predictions achieved
by the single method are extremely accurate for some and present
obvious errors for others. This has created confusion in the industry as to
which kind of prediction method should be chosen for particular project
types. Another issue with EVM is that it must be applied to each distinct
construction project process, with revisions conducted manually. Such
makes EVM both complicated and time consuming. Consequently,
computerization of the engineering management process is critical if
EVM is to be applied effectively to control construction costs. However,
most construction firms in Taiwan use computer systems powerful
enough only to analyze initial stage budgets. Systems are not equipped to
react to changes at each construction stage or use the EVM method to
predict construction project EAC.

Table 3
Input variables.

Training set name Construction progress ACP EVP CPI SPI Subcontractor Owner billed Change order CCI Climate effect
and no percentage billed index index index index

Project-A-1 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Project-A-2 7.9% 1.8% 3.6% 2.01 0.69 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.03 0.99
Project-A-3 11.7% 3.4% 7.7% 2.24 0.89 1.67 0.75 1.00 1.09 0.98
Project-A-4 15.8% 4.9% 10.1% 2.05 0.99 1.33 0.65 1.00 1.12 0.97
Project-A-5 19.9% 9.0% 11.4% 1.27 0.99 0.73 0.57 1.00 1.11 0.96
Project-A-6 23.8% 12.1% 12.4% 1.02 1.00 1.07 1.05 1.00 1.10 0.95
Project-A-7 27.9% 13.8% 13.7% 1.00 0.99 1.06 1.06 1.00 1.10 0.95
Project-A-8 31.8% 14.5% 15.2% 1.04 1.00 1.14 1.09 1.00 1.12 0.94
Project-A-9 35.9% 18.2% 16.7% 0.92 1.02 0.91 0.99 1.00 1.13 0.92
Project-A-10 40.0% 22.8% 16.7% 0.73 1.02 0.68 0.93 1.00 1.13 0.91
Project-A-11 44.0% 26.9% 23.0% 0.86 0.93 0.64 0.75 1.00 1.14 0.90
Project-A-12 48.0% 32.0% 30.3% 0.95 1.02 0.71 0.75 1.00 1.13 0.90
Project-A-13 52.0% 37.4% 32.9% 0.88 0.94 0.69 0.78 1.00 1.12 0.90
Project-A-14 56.1% 40.3% 39.1% 0.97 0.95 0.74 0.77 1.00 1.12 0.89
Project-A-15 59.9% 42.1% 43.0% 1.02 0.95 0.81 0.79 1.00 1.12 0.88
Project-A-16 67.9% 47.4% 57.0% 1.20 0.94 0.84 0.70 1.00 1.13 0.87
Project-A-17 71.8% 53.1% 66.8% 1.26 0.95 0.86 0.68 1.00 1.12 0.86
Project-A-18 75.9% 62.9% 76.1% 1.21 0.96 0.87 0.72 1.00 1.11 0.84
Project-A-19 79.9% 71.2% 85.8% 1.20 0.97 0.88 0.73 1.00 1.11 0.83
Project-A-20 84.0% 83.5% 97.3% 1.16 0.99 0.97 0.83 1.00 1.11 0.82
Project-A-21 88.0% 92.0% 98.2% 1.07 0.99 0.88 0.82 1.00 1.12 0.81
Project-A-22 92.0% 94.1% 98.5% 1.05 0.99 0.95 0.91 1.00 1.12 0.80
Project-A-23 96.1% 97.1% 100.2% 1.03 0.99 0.92 0.89 1.01 1.12 0.80
Project-A-24 100.0% 98.9% 100.2% 1.01 0.99 0.91 0.89 1.01 1.12 0.79
Project-A-25 104.1% 100.2% 101.4% 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.12 0.79
Project-A-26 107.9% 100.4% 101.4% 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.13 0.79
Project-A-27 111.8% 100.6% 101.4% 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.14 0.78
Project-A-28 115.9% 104.1% 101.4% 0.97 1.00 0.97 1.00 1.01 1.16 0.76
Project-A-29 119.9% 108.7% 101.4% 0.93 1.00 0.93 1.00 1.01 1.20 0.75
Project-B-1 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Project-B-2 6.9% 2.5% 0.0% 1.00 1.00 1.16 1.00 1.00 1.03 0.99
Project-B-3
Project-M-15
Project-M-16 105.8% 84.4% 99.9% 1.18 1.00 1.08 0.92 1.00 1.13 0.76
Project-M-17 111.8% 92.5% 95.9% 1.04 1.00 1.04 1.00 0.96 1.13 0.75
622 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629
Fig. 3. Predicted output and actual output of training data.
In light of the above, the development of a fast and effective system
that considers the uncertainty and myriad problems involved in cost
control over the course of a project course while predicting
construction project EAC is an important issue to be resolved. This
research aims to resolve questions encountered in project cost
management by collecting relevant papers in the literature and
historical cases in order to identify the set of factors that influence
significantly on project cost. A project cost flow trend was then set up
using historical case data. The relationship between monthly costs
and project EAC was mapped based on past knowledge and
experience. An Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference
Model (ESIM) was established using historical case experience to
predict and control EAC variation tendency of the project during
construction. Finally, indices of project cost and project cost diagrams
were employed to identify the reason for the difference between
actual and ESIM-predicted values so that potential problems can be
found and effective control and management actions be implemented
at proper points in time.
2. Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM)
2.1. Support Vector Machine (SVM)
Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a computer training technique
popularized in recent years. It is based on a statistics learning theory
described by Vapnik [17]. Traditional training techniques usually focus
on minimizing empirical risk; i.e., minimizing the classification error of
training data. However, SVM aims to minimize the structural risk in
finding a probable upper bound of the classification error of training
data [18]. This new computer training technique effectively minimizes
the upper bound of theoretical error.
Data classification and regression, two critical components of
computer science, are being used in increasingly broad and general
applications. Traditional classification methods include neural networks
(NNs), decision trees and nearest neighbour method, among others.
SVM is a new method that has already proved its value through good
results in many applications. SVM has relatively firmer theoretical
foundations than NNs. Support Vector Classification (SVC) is founded on
the principle of minimizing training theoretical structure risk. An
important advantage of SVC is its ability to handle linear inseparable
Table 4
Validation of training cases.
Project name A B C D E F
Number of periods 29 24 20 25 26
Average error of EACP 8.7% 5.6% 4.1% 5.6% 6.2%
Qualified (b10%) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Fig. 4. Predicted output and actual output of estimate to completion for case L.
problems. SVC utilizes existing data to do training and then selects
several support vectors by analyzing the training data to represent the
whole data. Some extreme values were eliminated in advance. Finally,
selected support vectors were packed into a model and SVC was used to
carry out classification on testing data. The concept of Support Vector
Regression (SVR) is similar to that of SVC. It maps regression problems
from low dimensional to high dimensional vector spaces to identify the
support vector in which the appropriate linear regression equation
could be obtained.
2.2. Fast Messy Genetic Algorithms (fmGA)
The Simple Genetic Algorithm (sGA), an efficient and accurate
algorithm, was first developed by Holland in 1975. Goldberg et al.
subsequently developed the Messy Genetic Algorithm (mGA) in 1989
in order to improve sGA shortcomings. Several experiments [17,19]
have since shown the mGA much better at solving permutation
problems than sGA. In 1993, Goldberg established the Fast Messy
Genetic Algorithm (fmGA) to reduce the high memory consumption
of operation processes [20].
The mGA resolved the problem that sGA does not consider logical
limitations amongst gene bunches during the optimization process.
There are four main differences in solving mechanisms between fmGA
and sGA [21,22]. The first is that chromosomes of variable length could
be adopted in fmGA. Secondly, simple cut and splice are used to replace
the sGA operator mechanism. Thirdly, the optimization process includes
a primordial and juxtapositional stage. Lastly, competitive templates are
adopted to retain the most outstanding gene building blocks in each
generation [23].
2.3. ESIM framework
The Evolutionary Support Vector Machine Inference Model (ESIM)
fuses SVM and fmGA [20,24,25]. In this model, SVM is used to sum up
the complicated relationship between input parameters and output
parameters, while fmGA searches for the best parameters (C and γ)
needed by SVM needs in order to improve SVM prediction accuracy.
The framework of SVM is shown in Fig. 1.
Steps are explained as follows:
Default C, γ: The value of C and γ may be set up differently to
reflect case and problem characteristics. C and γ can be selected as 1
and 1/M respectively, where M stands for parameter number.
G H I J K Total
20 22 27 18 31 27 269
7.6% 3.6% 14.0% 5.0% 4.2% 3.7%
Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes 91%
 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629 623

Table 5
(a) Testing results of case L. (b) Testing results of case M.

Training set name Predicted Actual EACP EACP e (error of

and no output output (predicted) (actual) EACP)

(a)
Project L-1 0.76985 0.72710 89.76% 84.18% 6.63%
Project L-2 0.75566 0.72230 88.53% 84.18% 5.17%
Project L-3 0.69682 0.70360 83.28% 84.18% 1.06%
Project L-4 0.66103 0.63210 87.95% 84.18% 4.48%
Project L-5 0.62353 0.59440 87.98% 84.18% 4.52%
Project L-6 0.57243 0.54420 87.86% 84.18% 4.38%
Project L-7 0.52164 0.50640 86.17% 84.18% 2.37%
Project L-8 0.47307 0.44560 87.75% 84.18% 4.25%
Project L-9 0.43308 0.40210 88.22% 84.18% 4.80%
Project L-10 0.40248 0.37220 88.12% 84.18% 4.68%
Project L-11 0.42472 0.33140 96.34% 84.18% 14.45%
Fig. 5. ESIM-predicted and actual EAC values of case L.
Project L-12 0.39262 0.29480 96.93% 84.18% 15.16%
Project L-13 0.37184 0.25570 99.32% 84.18% 18.00%
Project L-14 0.33271 0.22340 98.42% 84.18% 16.92%
Search for fmGA parameters: In this step, fmGA searches for relatively
Project L-15 0.30792 0.17890 101.00% 84.18% 19.98%
Project L-16 0.13018 0.15060 81.52% 84.18% 3.16%
appropriate C and γ to serve as parameters for the next generation.
Project L-17 0.11847 0.12780 82.96% 84.18% 1.44% Optimized parameters: According to the above-mentioned opti-
Project L-18 0.12773 0.10770 86.79% 84.18% 3.11% mization calculations, the best gene set will be retained. The optimum
Project L-19 0.09538 0.08770 85.18% 84.18% 1.19% inference model is obtained after gene set decoding as the C and γ
Project L-20 0.05293 0.08330 80.21% 84.18% 4.71%
value for SVM type.
Average error 7.02%

(b) 3. Constructing EAC prediction model using ESIM (EAC–ESIM)

Project M-1 0.74012 0.72410 94.58% 84.18% 2.26%
Project M-2 0.65222 0.65710 91.85% 84.18% 0.69%
During the construction phase of the project, planning objectives and
Project M-3 0.61894 0.62030 92.32% 84.18% 0.18%
Project M-4 0.57882 0.59120 90.88% 84.18% 1.74%
achieved percentage are affected by actual work conditions, design
Project M-5 0.56265 0.61940 85.09% 84.18% 8.00% changes and external environmental conditions. Adjustments that result
Project M-6 0.51792 0.51410 92.99% 84.18% 0.55% to reflect such can generate differences between planned and actual
Project M-7 0.49309 0.48480 93.58% 84.18% 1.18% completion costs.
Project M-8 0.45539 0.44820 93.42% 84.18% 1.01%
The EAC prediction is generally based on the construction budget
Project M-9 0.41551 0.41580 92.45% 84.18% 0.04%
Project M-10 0.39051 0.39570 91.81% 84.18% 0.73% developed based on initial project conditions (i.e., the construction
Project M-11 0.29915 0.31270 90.71% 84.18% 1.92% scope specified in the contract and environmental factors). EAC
Project M-12 0.26694 0.24910 94.82% 84.18% 2.53% factors of influence deduced from reference material are represented
Project M-13 0.23630 0.22980 93.34% 84.18% 0.92%
as input and prospective project cost is the output. The cost database
Project M-14 0.18320 0.20250 89.97% 84.18% 2.72%
Project M-15 0.17857 0.19580 90.24% 84.18% 2.43%
of project cases was established accordingly. Database records were
Project M-16 0.15536 0.14510 93.83% 84.18% 1.46% used to plan values and actual values for each month and calculate the
Project M-17 0.08462 0.08330 82.66% 84.18% 0.18% difference between the two. The mapping relationship between input
Average error 1.68% and output was found via case learning and ESIM training. Finally, the
prospective cost of a new project was predicted by inputting the
monthly cost of a project into the developed system in accordance
Training data set: Before executing the prediction model, patterns with training and testing results. The process is described in Fig. 2.
of influence must first be found and as training data into the system as EACP is defined as Eq. (1) in this research.
prediction input parameters.
SVM training model: In this step, the user collects relevant EACP = ACP + ETCP ð1Þ
historical cases for research. Case influence patterns serve as input
where
parameters and the case decision serves as output parameters. Such
input and output values became the training data set, and are input
EACP (estimate at completion percentage) predicting EAC in ad-
into the model as initial training data. SVM regards selected C and γ
vance/total cost of original budget
values as default patterns for the first training process.
ACP (actual cost percentage) actual cost at some specific moment/
Average accuracy: This step regards the reciprocal of the objective
total cost of original budget
function as the fitness function. A larger value correlates to a superior
model framework.
Termination criteria: The procedure operates continuously until
certain conditions are satisfied, e.g., confirmation of appropriate fitness
Table 7
or absence of conspicuous fitness after making calculations in several
General EAC prediction methods of EVM.
generations to demonstrate that convergence has already been reached.
Item Equation Note

EAC1 = AC + BAC − EV
EAC2 = BAC / CPI
Table 6 EAC3 = BAC / SPI
Validation of training cases qualification of testing cases. EAC4 = AC + (BAC − EV) / CPI
EAC5 = AC + (BAC − EV) / SPI
Project Number of ESIM Average error of Qualified
EAC6 = AC + (BAC − EV) / SCI SCI = CPI * SPI
name periods RMS EACP (b10%)
EAC7 = AC + (BAC − EV) / (W1 * CPI + W2 * SPI) W1 = 0.8
L 20 0.0594 7.02% Yes W2 = 0.2
M 17 0.0173 1.68% Yes EAC8 Execution budget amount Approved budget
624 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629

Table 8
Error of EVM and ESIM prediction results.

Project name EAC1 EAC2 EAC3 EAC4 EAC5 EAC6 EAC7 EAC8 ESIM prediction Note

A 10.0% 17.1% 6.9% 16.8% 9.7% 15.9% 15.7% 5.2% 8.7%

B 7.0% 9.1% 10.6% 9.1% 7.3% 9.4% 8.4% 7.6% 5.6%
C 27.0% 3.2% 15.9% 3.2% 7.3% 3.2% 3.3% 15.9% 4.1%
D 9.1% 6.5% 23.9% 7.1% 9.1% 7.1% 5.9% 24.8% 5.6%
E 9.7% 35.0% 5.6% 13.7% 9.7% 13.7% 13.0% 4.3% 6.2%
F 5.0% 14.0% 12.9% 12.3% 11.6% 14.4% 11.4% 1.7% 7.6%
G 3.5% 14.1% 17.5% 13.7% 14.8% 40.0% 13.3% 6.1% 3.6%
H 13.6% 8.9% 35.4% 7.5% 13.7% 7.5% 7.3% 32.4% 14.0%
I 8.7% 23.1% 19.4% 23.1% 7.6% 21.7% 20.7% 14.2% 5.0%
J 3.2% 11.4% 7.2% 9.2% 5.4% 9.9% 8.5% 2.1% 4.2%
K 3.3% 6.7% 8.6% 7.4% 3.9% 7.0% 6.1% 6.8% 3.7%
Average 9.1% 13.6% 14.9% 11.2% 9.1% 13.6% 10.3% 11.0% 6.2%
Qualified percentage 81.8% 45.5% 36.4% 54.5% 72.7% 54.5% 54.5% 63.6% 90.9%
L 7.6% 21.0% 23.5% 19.4% 12.1% 19.3% 18.7% 18.0% 7.0% Testing case
M 4.6% 16.2% 12.2% 16.0% 13.1% 21.7% 15.5% 9.3% 1.7% Testing case
Average 6.1% 18.6% 17.9% 17.7% 12.6% 20.5% 17.1% 13.7% 4.4%
Qualified percentage 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 50% 100%

ETCP (estimate to completion percentage) estimate to completion at
some specific moment/total cost of original budget, also the
output value of ESIM
The processes of developing the model include “Identify Significant
Factors of Influence”, “Historical Data Collection”, “Model Training” and
“Model Testing”. The details of each process are illustrated accordingly.
3.1. Identify Significant Factors of Influence
This research identified factors that significantly affect the EAC of
construction projects using several relevant publications (listed in
Table 1). Input parameters of the model were obtained after time-
dependent cost factors and performance management concepts were
also considered.

Fig. 6. Processes of applying EAC–ESIM for cost management.

 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629 625

Fig. 7. Cost exception management based on prediction results.

Due to the variety of construction project categories and resultant input values in accordance with definition equations (see Table 3).
differences in data inputs, this research focused only on construction The 13 historical cases were divided into training and testing groups.
projects done in reinforced concrete in order to control for potential The 11 cases in the training group comprised 269 periods and the 2
variance in results attributable to construction type. Ten significant cases in the testing group comprised 37 periods.
influence factors for EAC were calculated as input values based on Output parameters were normalized by linear scaling. The normali-
monthly construction cost data. Prospective cost was designated as zation method was revised to keep estimated cost in the range of 0 to 1, so
the output value. that maximum and minimum of output parameters were enlarged by
10%. The detail processes are shown in Eqs. (2)–(4).
3.2. Historical Data Collection
Xa −XL
Xn = ð2Þ
The 13 historical cases included in this research were all reinforced XU −XL
concrete projects executed between 2000 and 2007 by one engineer-  
ing company located in Taipei City. Projects were located chiefly in XU = Xmax + Xrange × 10% ð3Þ
northern Taiwan, with selection criteria considering data distribution
 
and completeness. Building height ranged from 9 to 17 stories XL = Xmin − Xrange × 10% ð4Þ
(inclusive of stories belowground). The value of contracts ranged from
NT$80 million to NT$1.1 billion. Overall floor area of cases studied
where
ranged from 3094 m2 to 31,797 m2. Construction durations ranged
from 457 to 749 days. Relevant data from historical cases used are
Xn output parameter after normalization, the range is between
arranged in Table 2.
0 and 1
Monthly cost records for every case were collected and the ten
Xa output parameter before normalization
identified factors of significant influence on EAC were calculated as
XU upper bound of the output parameter
XL lower bound of the output parameter
Xmax maximum of the output parameter
Table 9
Cost influencing indices. Xmin minimum of the output parameter
Xrange difference between maximum and minimum
Index name Definition Criterion

Cost performance Earned value/actual cost ≧ 1.05

index
Schedule Earned value/ ≧1
performance index planned value
Subcontractor Billed amount/ ≧ 1, ≦1.1 Table 10
billed index actual cost Monthly cost information.
Owner billed Billed amount/ ≧ 0.9
Item Definition
index earned value
Change order Revised contract ≦ 1.1, Estimate at completion percentage Predicted EAC of ESIM/original budget
index amount/budget at completion ≧ 0.9 (EACP) amount
Construction Construction material price index of that Progress b 30%, Actual cost percentage (ACP) Actual paid of cost/original budget amount
cost index month/construction material price index ≦ 1.02 Earned value percentage (EVP) Budget cost at completion/original budget
of initial stage Progress b 60%, amount
≦ 1.03 Planned value percentage (PVP) Budget cost of planning/original budget
Climate effect (Revised project duration ≧ 1 − 0.2 × amount
index — no. of rainy day)/revised progress Contract billed percentage (CBP) Proprietor pricing amount/original
project duration percentage contracted amount
626 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629

Table 11
Comparison of cost variance.

Definition Illustration

Budget Revised budget % (RBP) — estimate at completion % (EACP) N0, cash balance of budget
b0, not enough in budget, exception management
Schedule Earned value % (EVP) — planned value % (PVP) N0, exceed in progress
b0, delay in progress, overtime planning
Cost Earned value % (EVP) — actual cost % (ACP) N0, cash balance of contract, not pricing by subcontractor
b0, overspend of contract, missed list, not transacting budget increase
Contract billed Contract billed % (CBP) — actual cost % (ACP) N0, cash balance of amount, large quantities of payment, subcontractor not valuating
b0, contract increased or constructed without valuation, contract decreased and not
revised, over amount

3.3. Model Training 3.4.1. Testing of training error

Training of the ESIM training module began after parameter selection.
A total of 100 generations were searched for a period of 1.0167 min. The
fault-tolerant parameter C was 20. The kernel function parameter γ
equalled 0.1. The Root Mean Square (RMS) which describes the quality of
how well the model fits the data of the model obtained from the optimum
chromosome equalled 0.0559.
3.4. Model Testing
The ESIM performance assessment module was employed after
completion of training. ESIM decoded the optimum chromosome as the
EAC prediction model to facilitate Model Testing revelation of prediction
error and learning accuracy. Model Testing included testing of training
error and case verification.
Model regulation was learned by training historical case data. The
model was established utilizing ESIM to search for training cases that
possessed consistency between inference output and actual output. After
training, model accuracy was tested by comparing differences between
output results and actual values. Estimating criteria used in this research
are shown in Eq. (5). The model was qualified when the error fulfilled
selected requirements.
ESIM
jEAC Pi −AEAC P j
ei = × 100%
AEAC P
where
ei error percentage of ith period predicted by ESIM
EACESIM
Pi estimate at completion percentage of ith period predicted by
ESIM
AEACP actual estimate at completion percentage of the case
The 269 periods collected from 11 cases were input into the
database. An estimated value of prospective cost percentage for each
case could be obtained via the ESIM performance assessment module.
The estimated value is termed ‘Predicted output’. The actual value of
the prospective cost percentage for each case is termed ‘Actual
output’. Fig. 3 shows the relationship between Predicted output and
Actual output produced by ESIM training. EACP (see Eq. (2)) could be
obtained after de-normalizing the Predicted output and the training
error percentage could be calculated by making a comparison with the
corresponding percentage of actual cost at completion.
During the constructing process, managers are most concerned
with the development trend and the influence of such on project
decision making. To determine model accuracy after training and
achieve the practical needs of managers, this research selected a 10%
average error as the qualification ceiling. The qualified rate was 91%
for the 11 training cases in this research, as shown in Table 4.
3.4.2. Verification of testing cases
A total of 269 periods collected from 11 cases were input into the
database. An estimated value of prospective cost percentage for each case
could be obtained using the ESIM performance assessment module. As
above, the estimated value is termed ‘Predicted output’, while the actual
value of prospective cost percentage for each case is termed ‘Actual
output’. Fig. 4 shows the relationship between Predicted output and
ð5Þ
Actual output produced by ESIM training. After de-normalizing the
Predicted output, EACP (see Eq. (2)) could be obtained and the percentage
of the training error could be calculated through a comparison with the
percentage of actual cost at completion.
The main purpose of verification is to examine whether the model
trained by ESIM can be employed to infer or predict cases beyond
training cases. Data for two testing cases (Case L and M) were input

Fig. 8. Time series of the cost influencing indices for case L.

 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629 627

Fig. 9. Cost management diagram of case L.

into the ESIM performance assessment module, with results shown in
Table 5. Comparing the predicted values of EAC with actual values,
average errors were 7.02% and 1.68%, respectively. Both results were
considered ‘qualified’ under the definition set above (Table 6).
Figs. 4 and 5 were drawn in order to perform further analysis for
case L, which returned a comparatively large error. From the 11th
period to 15th period, the error values between 14.45% and 19.98%
were noticeably large. A possible reason could be due to a rapid
revision of project budget during this period. Such would make data
unstable and cause larger error values.
The revisions and updates of the project budget are not rare in
practice for construction projects with or without change order. In
this study, the historical cases for Model Training implicitly included
the uncertainty of change order for replan. This is the reason of the
study to use AI to solve the uncertainty. To identify the impacts of
change order on EAC, a real case with significant change order, i.e.
Project L, was selected for Model Testing. The results showed that the
predicting error would increase in a period of time after change order
(but the error was still tolerable). Overall, it would converge to the
actual result in the end.
qualified percentage for each prediction methods. Results of compar-
ison are shown in Table 8 and discussed below:
1. No single EVM method predicts EAC at a consistently high level of
accuracy. Prediction results varied with differences in project
details. For the cases studied in this research, EAC1 and EAC5
attained better average error and qualified rates.
2. ESIM predictions showed a larger difference of accuracy during the
initial 30% of project work schedule. This may be attributable to
data instability in the initial stages and the influence of design
changes. However, the prediction result attained by ESIM is more
precise than by EVMs.
3. The predictive error of ESIM is comparatively steady. Qualified
rates of training and testing cases were 91% and 100%, respectively.
Both rates were larger than those of EVMs. Such proves the
feasibility of EAC predictions using ESIM.
5. Applications of EAC–ESIM to construction management
5.1. Applying EAC–ESIM for cost management

4. Comparison of EAC–ESIM prediction with 8 EVM methods
To demonstrate that the method of EAC prediction model
proposed in this research is feasible and reliable, EAC values used
were calculated using eight other EVM methods [16]. The values are
compared with the predictions generated by the ESIM (Table 7) to
assess comparative accuracy. This research selected 10% of error to be
the qualified criterion, and calculated the average error and the
After the EAC prediction model using ESIM was established, the
feasibility of the model needed to be proven using actual projects. A
prediction could be made once data had been collected and formatted to
model requirements.
As the prediction model must address real project aspects, the
procedure used to apply the EAC prediction model was designed as shown
in Fig. 6, in accordance with various situations of every construction
stages.
5.2. Cost exception management based on prediction results

An effective prediction model establishes a response system able to

Table 12 identify factors that significantly influence the EAC at different project
Cost influencing indices analysis of case L.
stages. The predicted trend acquired from the ESIM can then be compared
Index name Value Illustration with project cost influencing indices and project cost diagrams. Finally,
Cost performance index 1.17 ≧1.05, well cost management, revised propositions for deviations may be addressed and tracked
but the ratio is slightly high. continuously in order to effectively control costs.
Schedule performance index 0.96 ≦1, slightly delay in progress, The EAC prediction provides a key reference to construction
and the trend is increasing.
managers by analyzing the cost information over the course of the
Subcontractor billed index 1.05 ≧1, ≦ 1.1, normal.
Owner billed index 0.90 ≧0.9, normal. project. Furthermore, the managers may assess, term by term, the
Change order index 1.03 ≦1.1, normal. factors of influence over cost and consider the various potential
Construction cost index 1.09 ≧1.03, slightly high, but the main reasons that might result in cost overruns when an EAC prediction
decoration engineering items are contracted. exceeds the approved budget, allowing managers to identify potential
Climate effect index 0.83 ≦0.86, normal.
problems and control costs.
628 M.-Y. Cheng et al. / Automation in Construction 19 (2010) 619–629

Table 13
Cost diagrams analysis of case L.

Item RBP EACP ACP EVP PVP CBP

Value 104% 97% 57% 66% 69% 60%

Analysis Difference Illustration

RBP N EACP +7% Possible to decrease budget.

EVP b PVP − 3% Delay in progress, and the trend is increasing.
EVP N ACP +9% Cash balance of contract or not pricing by subcontractor.
CBP N ACP +3% Cash balance of amount, but the ratio reducing, indicates
that the proprietor adds items without pricing.

Reasons 1. Addendum of structural engineering revised in the eleventh month with an evaluated delay of three months.
2. Current contract cash balance: 5%, but not transacts the cash balance decrease while the budget increases in the
eleventh month.
3. Items not yet priced by the subcontractor: approximately 2%.
4. Fits with estimation results.

Training and convergence testing demonstrated model fitness for
use. This research uses the Variance at Completion percentage (VACP,
defined as Eq. (6)) as the criterion for exception management. The
application procedure of EAC management is illustrated with Fig. 7.
VACP = RBP  EACP
where
RBP Revised Budget Percentage
5.2.1. Project cost influencing indices analysis
Indices can monitor and identify project deviations effectively and
rapidly. However, factors that influence project cost are complicated
and the definition and criteria of indices are indeterminate in research
done in relevant fields (see a list of literature reviewed in Table 9).
5.2.2. Project cost diagrams analysis
Indices that influence project cost can be provided to managers to
help their control of prospective costs and investigate pre-emptively
potential cost management problems. Nevertheless, overall construc-
tion cost trends cannot be determined by analyzing project cost
indices alone as cost problems may display abnormalities in some
situations. Thus, project cost diagram analysis is used as a supple-
mentary method in this research.
This research used original contract documents to define the scope
of comparative data. Project cost diagrams were drawn on a monthly
basis based on EAC prediction results and data items shown in
Table 10. Project schedule tendencies and costs may be obtained by
comparing and analyzing variations in cost information (Table 11).
Therefore, appropriate prewarnings may be heeded and operations
enforced in accordance with project characteristics. Furthermore,
comprehensive inspection and strategy direction may be provided.
5.2.3. Application of an actual example case
Example Case L: Time series for cost influencing indices and cost
ð6Þ management are shown in Figs. 8 and 9, respectively. Moreover, this
research selects the time point at which project progress reaches
71.16% (Project-L-12) to analyze indices of project cost (see Table 12)
and project cost diagrams (Table 13 and Fig. 10). Prediction results
were verified by comparing analysis results with the project
completion report, leading us to conclude that results are feasible
when applied to the effective management and control of project
costs.
6. Conclusion
This research proposed an EAC prediction method using ESIM that
employs fmGA and SVM. Results obtained in this paper are
summarized as follows:
1. Research established an EAC predication method utilizing ESIM
that identifies significant factors of influence on project cost and
performs predictions by collecting and arranging experience-based
rules from historical cases. ESIM results represent a significant
improvement over results obtainable using traditional EAC
prediction methods.
2. The EAC prediction model established in this research is consid-
erably accurate. The only inputs that need to be entered into the
model are the key factors influencing costs during the current
month following training and testing. A significant disadvantage
for traditional construction projects, i.e., cost tendencies cannot be
predicted in real time, has been effectively remedied.
3. ESIM prediction results were compared with eight common EVM
prediction methods. Values obtained by the EVM methods were
relatively unstable due to the wide variance in data among
projects. Conversely, the model developed in this research
generated comparatively steady prediction values. Such verified
the feasibility of using ESIM to predict construction project EACs.
4. Prediction results were analyzed further using project cost
influencing indices and project cost diagrams. This helped identify
the causes underlying EAC differences and trends. Results help
managers to control project costs in real time.

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