Risk Analysis

Faisal I Khan
Faculty of Engineering & Applied Science
Memorial University
What may happen
What may happen
What may happen
What Risk Analysis Can Do?
Helps in
– Forecasting any unwanted situation
– Estimating damage potential of
such situation
– Decision making to control such
situation
– Evaluating effectiveness of control
measures
 Outline of presentation
Definitions of Risk and Hazard
Risk Assessment Process
Environmental Risk Assessment
Industrial Risk Assessment
Reliability Risk Assessment
Application of Industrial Risk Assessment
Application of Environmental Risk
Assessment
 Hazard
Hazard: It is a measure of harm/loss or
potentiality of an event to cause harm/loss
– Fire Hazard
– Explosion Hazard
– Toxic Hazard
– Corrosive Hazard
– Radioactive Hazards
 Risk
The probability of suffering a harm or loss. It is a
combination of hazard and Probability
– Risk = Probability of occurrence of hazard X
magnitude of hazard
Type of Risks
– Background risk
– Incremental risk
– Total risk
Measurement of Risk
– Individual Risk
– Societal Risk
 Individual Risk
Risk posed by an individual
– It is generally measured in time domain for a
particular type of hazard.
– Risk of Death due to fire in an industry = 1.0E-
1.0E-
05 /yr
 Societal Risk
Risk for a group of people
– It is measured in terms of number of people
poses particular risk for a given period of time.
– Risk of Death to 10 workers due to fire in an
industry = 1.0E-
1.0E-09 /yr/10 persons
 Acceptable Risk
Risk that’s acceptable to regulatory agency and
also to the public
Level of Risk of Death Per Year (voluntarily
acceptable by public)
– Smoking 30 cigarettes per day 1 in 200
– Man aged 35-
35-44 1 in 600
– Motor Vehicle Accident 1 in 10 000
– Accident at home 1 in 12 000
– Rail accident 1 in 420 000
 Acceptable Risk Criteria
UK Health and Safety Executive Criteria:
FAR (Fatality Accident Rate)
Number of fatality in life time working in an
industry
– FAR = (Number of fatalities)*108/(Total hours
worked by all employees during period
covered)
– Acceptable FAR value 1.0
 Acceptable Risk Criteria
US EPA
For carcinogens/or other events a lifetime
risk of 1 in million (1.0E-
(1.0E-06) is defined as
acceptable
For non-
non-carcinogens a hazard index less
than 1.0 is defined acceptable
 Acceptable Risk Criteria
Dutch Acceptable risk criteria

1.0E-05

Unacceptable region
Frequency of event

1.0E-06
Conditional

Acceptable
1.0E-08
1.0 10 100
Number of fatalities
 ALARP
As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP)
The lower the risk less proportionately, it is
necessary to spend to reduce it. This concept of
1.0E-01 diminishing proportion is shown by the triangle

Unacceptable region
1.0E-03
Tolerable only if risk reduction
Indiv idu a l r isk (IR )

Is impracticable or cost is
The ALARP
grossly disproportionate to
the improvement gained
1.0E-05
Broadly acceptable region

1.0E-07
Negligible risk

1.0E-09
 ALARP application
1.0E+01 Units
After remedial meaures

1.0E-01 Unacceptable region 1.2E-01 1.2E-01 Before remedial measures

1.4E-02
5.7E-03
In d iv id u a l R isk ( IR )

1.0E-03
3.7E-04
ALARP 4.2E-05
1.0E-05 1.2E-05 1.2E-05
2.3E-06
5.2E-07 5.5E-07 5.2E-07
1.0E-07 Negligible risk
Broadly acceptable region

1.0E-09
Sep a. 1

Sep a. 2

D r ie r
Co m p r. 1

Co m p r. 2

F la sh
Figure 11. Comparision of individual risk factors with ALARP criteria
 Risk Representation
Individual Risk Contour

1.0E-04

2.0E-05

5.0E-06
 Risk Representation
FN curves
Frequency of occurrence (F)

Number of fatalities (N)

 Risk Assessment

Definition and Classification

 Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment is a systematic procedure for
describing and quantifying the risk associated
with hazardous substance, process, action or
event.
It involves:
– Identification of hazard
– Quantification of hazard
– Quantification of probability of occurrence of hazard
– Estimation of risk
Classification of Risk Assessment
According to scope of work, risk
assessment may be classified as:
Environmental Risk Assessment
Industrial Risk Assessment
Reliability Risk Assessment
Financial Risk Assessment
Health Risk Assessment
 Environmental Risk
Assessment

Contaminant Risk Assessment

Environmental Risk Assessment

Risk Exposure Consequence

source Process process

Release Assessment (Hazard Identification)

Exposure Assessment
Consequence Assessment (Toxicity
Assessment)
Risk Estimation (Risk Characterization)
Environmental Risk Assessment
Hazard identification
– Identification of all possible sources of hazards such chemicals,
events, etc.
– Estimate their strength at various mediums
– Rank them according to their severity
– Set up priority for the most vulnerable ones

Parameters used for screening and ranking

– Concentration
– Frequency of detection
– Mobility
– Persistence in the environment
– Treat ability
Environmental Risk Assessment
Exposure Assessment
Activities involve in exposure assessment
(Benzene
Benzene))
– Release mechanism (volatilization)
(volatilization)
– Transport mechanism (air
(air convection)
convection)
– (volatilization))
Transfer mechanism (volatilization
– Transformation mechanism (chemical
(chemical reaction)
reaction)
– Exposure point (air)
(air)
– Receptors (population
(population))
– Exposure Rout (inhalation
(inhalation))
Environmental Risk Assessment
Exposure Point Concentration: Receptor dose

I = (C*CR*EF*ED)/(BW*AT)

Where, I: intake (mg/kg), C: concentration at exposure

point (mg/L in water and mg/cu m in air), CR
CR:: contact
rate (L/day), ED:
ED: exposure duration (yr), BW
BW:: body
weight (kg), AT: AT: Averaging time (days), EF EF::
Frequency of exposure (days/year)
 Exposure pathways

Source Exposure
Transport Mechanism Receptors
Media
Soil dermal
Affected contact and
surface soil ingestion
Wind erosion

Atmospheric On-site
dispersion Inhalation of receptor
vapors and/or
Affected Volatilization particulates
subsurface
soils Accumulation
in enclosed
space Groundwater Off-site
Leaching ingestion receptor

Affected Groundwater
Groundwater transport
Surface water,
swimming, fish
consumption, etc
Environmental Risk Assessment
Consequence assessment/Toxicity
assessment
Adverse effect on environment, human or
other living system
Response

Dose
Environmental Risk Assessment
Risk Estimation
Carcinogenic risk
– Risk = CDI*Slope factor
Non--carcinogenic risk
Non
– HI = CDI/RfD
– HI: Hazard index (dimensionless)
– CDI: Chronic daily intake (mg/kg-
(mg/kg-day)
– RfD: Reference dose (mg/Kg-
(mg/Kg-day)
Industrial Risk Assessment

Safety Risk Assessment

 Industrial Risk Assessment
Steps involve:
– Hazard Identification
– Hazard Assessment
– Consequence Analysis
– Risk Characterization
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Hazard Identification
– DOW Indiex
– Mond Index
– SWeHI index
– AHI index
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Hazard Assessment
– Qualitative hazard assessment
HAZOP technique
OptHAZOP technique
– Probabilistic hazard assessment
Fault tree analysis
 Industrial Risk Assessment
HAZOP
– HAZOP is a simple structured methodology
for hazard identification and assessment,
PI&D's, PFD, material flow diagrams, and
operating manuals are examined to identify
causes and consequences for all possible
deviations from normal operation that could
arise
 Industrial Risk Assessment
T a k e o n e u n it
o r s tu d y n o d e
at a m om ent

HAZOP K e e p th is u n it fo r
c o n v e n tio n a l
C o m p a re th e s tu d y
n o d e w ith th e u n it o f
In fo rm a tio n B a s e
IN F O R M A T IO N
BASE
H A Z O P s tu d y

No
Is u n it
m a tc h in g

Yes
A n a ly s e th e c a u s e s a n d
A p p ly g u id e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f th e
w o rd s
d e v ia tio n d r a w n fr o m
th e IN F O R M A T IO N
BASE

A d d or rem ove ca uses an d

c o n s e q u e n c e s d u e to s p e c ia l
b e n a v io u r o f u n it

No A re a ll Yes A r e a ll s tu d y N o
d e v ia tio n s nodes over ?
over ?
Yes

P repare
H A Z O P r e p o rt

S to p
 Industrial Risk Assessment

HAZOP Report
Project details

Study node
Guide Parameter Causes Consequences Recommendation Rank
word
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Consequence analysis
– Fire modeling
– Explosion modeling
– Impact modeling
– Toxic release and dispersion modeling
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Risk Estimation and Characterization
– Individual Risk
– Societal Risk
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Latest Methodologies
WHO methodology
– Identification of Hazards
Checklist
Matrix diagram of interaction
– Assessment of Hazards
Accident sequence analysis
Failure effect analysis
– Accident Consequence Analysis
 Industrial Risk Assessment
Quantitative Risk Analysis
– Hazard identification
– Frequency estimation
– Consequence Analysis
– Measure of Risk
Probabilistic safety analysis
– Shown in next slide
 Hazard identification

Identification of plant operating stage

Initiating event selection

Function system relation

Screening of initiating even

Accident sequence modeling

Event sequence modeling

System modeling

Human performance analysis
Data acquisition and parameter estimation

Initiating events

Component failure data

Human error probability
Accident sequence quantification

Determination of accident sequence

Boolean reduction

Hazardous Substance Release Category Assessment

Outflow model

Evaporation model

Weather conditions

Relation of plant damage state & release category

Consequence assessment

Dispersion models

Assessment of doses

Dose response models
Integration of results
 ORA procedure
M o d u le r iz a tio n o f c o m p le te
p la n t in to m a n a g e a b le u n it s

H a z a r d id e n t if ic a t io n
* H IR A te c h n iq u e

a id to d e v e lo p a id to d e v e lo p
a c c id e n t s c e n a r io a c c id e n t s c e n a r io Q u a lit a t iv e h a z a r d a s s e s s m e n t
* o p tH A Z O P p r o c e d u r e
* T O P H A Z O P to o l

Q u a n tita tiv e h a z a r d a s s e s s m e n t/
C o n s e q u e n c e a s s e s s m e n t
* M O S E C fo r F ir e a n d e x p lo s io n s
* H A Z D IG fo r to x ic r e le a s e a n d d is p e r s io n
* D O M IF F E C T fo r c a s c a d in g e ffe c ts

P r o b a b ilis t ic h a z a r d a s s e s s m e n t
* P R O F A T to o l

R is k e s t im a t io n

S to p
 Description and
definition of system

Safety Analysis

Probabilistic Safety
Hazard Identification
incorporate suggested risk

Analysis
System Modification to

Quantitative Risk

management
Accident Modeling

assessment
control measures

Risk
Frequency estimations

Risk Quantification

Risk Documentation &

Follow up plan
ORA
Reliability Risk Assessment

Risk Based Maintenance

 Reliability Risk Assessment
Risk Based Maintenance Planning
– Risk estimation
Hazard identification
Quantitative Hazard Assessment
Probabilistic Hazard Assessment
Risk Quantification
– Risk evaluation
Setting up risk acceptance criteria
Risk comparison
– Maintenance planning
 What may go
What would be Start
wrong?
the impacts?
How it may go
Hazard identification
wrong?
Quantitative hazard Probabilistic hazard
How likely its
assessment assessment occurrence?
Accident scenario
development Fault tree for the Fault tree What maintenance
envisaged scenario development
schedule would
reduce its
Consequences
likelihood of
Fault tree analysis
analysis occurrence?

Apply maintenance
Risk estimation measures and re-
evaluate risk

No Suggest maintenance
Whether risk is
in acceptance? measures to control
risk

Yes

End
 Divide system in
manageable units

Consider one unit at a

time Risk Based Maintenance

Risk estimation
•Hazard identification/failure scenario
development
•Hazard quantification Risk Evaluation
•Probability analysis
•Risk estimation •Setting up acceptance risk criteria
•Comparison of assessed risk with
acceptance criteria

Maintenance planning
•Development of maintenance plan to
bring down the unacceptable risk to
acceptable level
•Maintenance scheduling
Risk Estimation Start

Consider one unit

Development of accident or
failure scenario
Probabilistic hazard assessment
Quantitative hazard assessment

Estimation of likely damage area Fault tree

development

Consequences Fault tree analysis

assessment

Risk estimation

No
Are all units
over?
Yes

Move to next
module
 Risk factors of one unit

Risk Evaluation
Comparison of estimated
risk against acceptance Setting up acceptance risk
criteria criteria

Risk factors of another

unit

Yes Is risk
acceptable?

Risk factors of another No

unit

Add this unit for the

maintenance planning

No Are all units

over?

Yes

Move to next
module
 Risk factors of one unit

Maintenance
planning Setup target risk for this
unit

Conduct reverse fault tree

analysis to calculate
maintenance duration
Risk factors of another
unit

Are all units

No over?
Yes
Setup new target risk
Re do the fault tree analysis
and risk computation of all the
units considering maintenance

No

Is revised risk
acceptable?
Yes

Develop maintenance plan