Hydrological Sciences Journal

ISSN: 0262-6667 (Print) 2150-3435 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/thsj20

Relationship between wadi drainage

characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid
northern Oman

Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

To cite this article: Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo (2010) Relationship between wadi
drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman, Hydrological Sciences
Journal, 55:3, 377-393, DOI: 10.1080/02626661003718318

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626661003718318

Published online: 23 Apr 2010.

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 Hydrological Sciences Journal – Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55(3) 2010 377

Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows

in arid northern Oman

Ghazi A. Al-Rawas1,2 & Caterina Valeo1

1
Civil Engineering, Schulich School of Engineering, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada
2
Current address: Civil and Architectural Engineering, College of Engineering, Sultan Quboos University, Muscat, Oman
ghazi@squ.edu.om; valeo@ucalgary.ca

Received 19 June 2009; accepted 19 October 2009; open for discussion until 1 October 2010

Citation Al-Rawas, G. A. & Valeo, C. (2010) Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak flood flows in arid northern
Oman. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(3), 377–393.
Downloaded by [120.188.7.6] at 14:54 01 November 2017

Abstract Relationships between watershed characteristics and mean wadi flood peaks in arid regions are investi-
gated. Mean flood peak discharge was derived for 12 watersheds ranging from 64 to 1730 km2 in Oman using 270
flood events from 10 years of record. Fourteen watershed characteristics were automatically extracted from a digital
elevation model, and multiple regression was used to investigate the effect of these characteristics on wadi mean
peak flow (QMPF) and 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year return period flood peaks. Drainage area (DA), wadi slope
(WS), watershed mean elevation (BE) and agricultural/farm area (FR) were found to be the key variables affecting
flood flows. As return period increased, the influence of BE on flood-peak estimation decreased. In addition,
urbanization is increasing alongside increasing agricultural areas, and the inclusion of FR in the relationship
improved the variance explanation by 11% over models using only traditional variables such as DA and BE.
Key words wadi; mean peak flows; watershed characteristics; GIS; multiple regression analysis; flood frequency analysis; arid
environments

Relations entre des caracteristiques des bassins versants et les debits de pointe d’oueds arides, oman
septentrional
Résumé L’étude porte sur les relations entre les caractéristiques des bassins versants et les débits de pointe moyens
des oueds en régions arides. Le débit de pointe moyen a été estimé pour 12 bassins versants de 64 à 1730 km2 à
Oman, à partir de 270 événements de crue extraits de 10 années d’observation. Quatorze caractéristiques de bassins
versants ont été extraites automatiquement d’un modèle numérique d’altitude et la régression multiple a été utilisée
pour étudier l’effet de ces caractéristiques sur le débit de pointe moyen de l’oued (QMPF) et sur les débits de pointe
des crues de périodes de retour 5, 10, 20, 50 et 100 ans. L’aire drainée (DA), la pente de l’oued (WS), l’altitude
moyenne du bassin versant (BE) et la superficie agricole (FR) sont les variables qui déterminent les débits des crues.
L’influence de BE sur le débit de pointe diminue quand la période de retour augmente. De plus, l’urbanisation
augmente avec la superficie agricole et la prise en compte de FR dans les relations améliore l’explication de la
variance de 11% par rapport aux modèles qui n’utilisent que les variables traditionnelles comme DA et BE.
Mots clefs oued; débit de pointe moyen; caractéristiques des bassins versants; SIG; analyse par régression multiple; analyse
fréquentielle des crues; environnements arides

Several studies have related watershed characteris-

INTRODUCTION
Watershed characteristics related to topography, hydrol-
ogy, land use and climate (Paybins, 2008) have long
been used to develop flood-peak flow equations. While
not a great deal is known of the mechanisms generating
wadi flood peaks, they are suspected to be influenced
by these same watershed characteristics and thus, devel-
oping equations relating wadi flood-peak flow to
known watershed characteristics is possible and also
useful in estimating flows in ungauged arid watersheds.
ISSN 0262-6667 print/ISSN 2150-3435 online
© 2010 IAHS Press
doi: 10.1080/02626661003718318
http://www.informaworld.com
tics to streamflow, but very few have been conducted in
arid regions. In addition, when it comes to which char-
acteristics should be considered, nothing is definitely
known (Mwakalila et al., 2002) for arid regions. The
main advantage of runoff prediction based on geomor-
phologic watershed characteristics is that it does not
require historic flood-peak records, and it has been
proven to be reasonably accurate, especially in some
small-size humid catchments (Rodriguez-Iturbe &
Valdes, 1979). An evaluation of the majority of indirect
 378 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo
regional methods for humid climates indicates that none
of the methods provide accurate prediction of maximum
flood-peak flow rates in arid catchments (Nouh, 1990).
Mason et al. (1999) concluded that, for estimating
the magnitude and frequency of flood-peak discharge in
Alabama, USA, drainage area is the only statistically
significant explanatory variable. Others, such as
Farquharson et al. (1992) in their study on regional
flood frequency analysis in arid and semi-arid areas,
implemented regression to estimate the mean peak
flood (MAF) for each catchment from both basin area
and mean annual rainfall (MAR). Their study covered
arid and semi-arid regions with 162 stations across
Africa, Asia, Australia and southwest USA. They sug-
gested that such areas worldwide could be treated as a
single homogeneous region excluding catchments
dominated by factors such as snowmelt. All arid basins
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used in their study exhibited a positive relationship
between MAF and drainage area with some variation
in the slope of the regression line. They found that the
MAR was not a significant predictor, and MAF could
be estimated from regression equations using the com-
bined flood frequency curve for all similar arid and
semi-arid regions. Arid and semi-arid regions produced
strongly similar flood frequency curves and were dif-
ferent from those found for the more humid climate of
the UK. They concluded that the similarity of these
regional curves suggests that the storm magnitude–
extent–frequency relationships are similar. Mimikou
& Gordios (1989), in their study on data from 11 gauged
stations of the five major rivers in northwestern and
western Greece, found that stream frequency, drainage
area and the intensity of the 1-day rainfall of a 5-year
return period were the variables that had the greatest
effect on the mean instantaneous flood. Pitlick (1994)
noted that the basin area and the mean annual precipita-
tion were the most important independent variables for
five basins in the western USA.
Nouh (2006) estimated the mean annual flood
flow using a relationship between floods and drainage
basin characteristics in the Arabian Gulf states. He did
not recommend the inclusion of a large number of
variables in the relationship. He showed that the size
and mean elevation of the drainage basin are sufficient
to explain the variance of the relationship. Kokkonen
et al. (2003) explained that catchments with higher
elevations and steeper slopes have a flashier response,
and smaller, quick flow times than those with lower
elevations and gentler slopes.
Enzel et al. (1993), in their study on drainage within
arid and semi-arid parts of the Colorado River basin in
Arizona and southern Utah, stated that after drainage
area, average basin elevation and mean annual precipita-
tion slightly improved the prediction of flood-peak mag-
nitudes (from regression equations) for Arizona.
Asquith & Slade (1999) found that watershed drainage
area, shape factor and stream slope are the most signifi-
cant characteristics influencing flood flow in natural
basins in Texas, USA. Nouh (1990) investigated the
effect of various catchment and rainstorm characteristics
on the performance of a geomorphologic rainfall–runoff
model in simulating observed flash flood hydrographs in
32 extremely arid catchments using real rainfall–runoff
data. Three main characteristics: size, followed by the
rate of infiltration and the slope of land, were found to be
the most effective catchment characteristics affecting the
accuracy of the model.
Pilgrim (1988) mentioned that there was no direct
relationship between rainfall on the watershed’s sur-
face and downstream runoff, except in headwater
areas. Driver & Troutman (1989) found that the most
significant explanatory variables used in estimating
storm runoff for 34 regions throughout the USA are
the total storm rainfall (R2 ¼ 0.35) and total contribut-
ing drainage area (R2 ¼ 0.95).
For flash flood studies, understanding the rela-
tionship between the watershed characteristics and
flood-peak discharge is also a key issue, specifically
in arid regions, where flash floods are characterized by
infrequent precipitation in the form of intense thunder-
storms, steep slope topography and a lack of dense
vegetation. Furthermore, arid regions are character-
ized by a high variability and diversity in watershed
characteristics. Some studies on semi-arid and arid
areas, including Patton & Baker (1976) and Costa
(1987), have suggested that small, steep and highly
dissected basins that receive very intense precipitation
are more likely to have flash floods. Examples of these
regions are central Texas, southern California and
north central Utah (Patton & Baker, 1976). Costa
(1987) also concluded that the discharges of very
rare floods were determined largely by precipitation
intensity rather than basin characteristics. Al-Rawas &
Valeo (2007) found that watershed characteristics
along with rainstorm are the most influencing factors
in urban flash flood studies for an arid environment
like Oman. Many other studies (Schmittner & Giresse,
1996; Weng, 2001; Laben, 2002; Wright, 2002; Davis,
2004; Jackson et al., 2005) used geographic informa-
tion systems (GIS) to extract watershed characteristics
and relate them to flood flows, or to predict/understand
the mechanisms leading to flash floods. Investigating
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman
the relationship between watershed characteristics and
flood-peak discharge in arid regions is still a critical
knowledge gap to better understanding of hydrologi-
cal processes in these regions. This improved under-
standing will lead to improved rainfall–runoff
modelling, management and planning strategies.
The main objective of this study is to analyse the
wadi flow data and examine the relationship and influ-
ence of watershed characteristics on wadi flow for dif-
ferent return periods in Oman. Previous studies have not
focused on land use as a watershed characteristic for arid
regions, but many arid regions such as Oman are experi-
encing rapid increases in urbanization and farming –
primarily occurring in the wadi flood plain. This study
investigates the relative role of these watershed charac-
teristics for predicting flash floods, in particular, the type
of urbanization and farming occurring in arid develop-
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ing countries. Real data from 12 catchments were used
to accomplish this study. Wadi flow data records were
collected by the Ministry of Regional Municipalities and
Water Resources (MRMWR), which is responsible for
all hydrological activities in Oman. In this study,
watershed climate characteristics such as rainfall are
not included due to a lack of available data. This study
focused on mean peak flow (QMPF) and 5- to 100-year
return period wadi flood-peak flows (Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50
Fig. 1 Study area. This map is not an authority on international borders.
379
and Q100). Numerous watershed characteristics includ-
ing land use are investigated to develop robust relation-
ships. These relationships potentially lead to a better
understanding of the mechanisms leading to flash flood-
ing in wadis, and estimating wadi flows in ungauged
arid catchments.
METHODOLOGY
Study area
Oman is located in the southeastern part of the Arabian
Peninsula, bounded to the northeast by the Gulf of
Oman, to the southeast by the Arabian Sea, to the
northwest by the United Arab Emirates, on the west
by Saudi Arabia and on the southwest by Yemen
(Fig. 1). Oman covers an area of approximately
309 500 km2 with the northern part of Oman being
mostly occupied by the Jabal Al-Hajar mountains that
range parallel to the coast and separate the fertile Al-
Batina plain from the interior region. Jabal Al-Hajar
altitudes reach more than 3000 m in Jabal Shams. In
the north, the Al-Batina coastal plains comprise the
agricultural and industrial regions. In the south, the
Dhofar mountain range extends up to 1800 m high and
separates the Salalah plain which has a unique
 380 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

monsoon climate. The northern mountain front, where
the study area is located, is drained northward by a
series of deeply incised wadis transforming coastward
into gravel terraces and, finally, the coastal plain,
which consists of alluvial deposits, scattered sabkhas,
strips of fertile soils and coastal sand dunes
(MRMEWR, 2005).
Twelve watersheds representing mountainous and
plain regions of northern Oman were selected as cali-
bration watersheds for estimating the mean peak flood
of Oman wadis in ungauged watersheds based on the
relationship between a watershed’s physical character-
istics and the mean peak flow (QMPF). These water-
sheds represent the major wadis in northern Oman that
experience flash floods regularly, including Wadi
Dayqah, Wadi Aday and Wadi Samail. Figure 1
shows the location of these watersheds and the gauges
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regression analysis; and finally (iv) this relationship is
validated by estimating the QMPF for different
watersheds.
Wadi flood-peak flow analysis
The selection of location and associated events of each
station was based on the availability of the flood-peak
record. Gauged records were used regardless of the
length of observation of a station. Twelve wadi flow
gauges were used in this study, and most of these
stations have 10-year records of flood (most station
records run from 1997 to 2007, except for Wadi
Dayqah). The total number of events used in this
study was 270. Table 1 shows the location and number
of available events for each station. Most of these
stations are located along wadis in the coastal plain

used in the study. Two criteria were implemented in
selecting these watersheds: the variability of the
watershed characteristics (e.g. the size and elevation),
and the availability of the gauge flow records. The area
of the watersheds ranged in size from 64 km2 (Wadi
Lansab) to 1730 km2 (Wadi Dayqah at Mazara village)
(Fig. 1 and Table 1).
The methodology of this study consists of four
stages: (i) wadi flood flow analysis is conducted in
which wadi flood-peak records of events were used to
derive QMPF; (ii) the physical watershed characteris-
tics were extracted from a digital elevation model
(DEM) with the use of a GIS, and satellite imagery
in some instances for verification; (iii) a relationship is
developed between QMPF and watershed characteris-
tics by performing a correlation analysis and multiple
region, as illustrated in Fig. 1. The mean peak flow
(QMPF) was expressed in this study as the arithmetic
mean value of peak wadi flows for the period of
record. This study takes into account the 2007 floods
that resulted from tropical cyclone Gonu. The QMPF is
defined as:
1X n
QMPF ¼ Qi (1)
n i¼1
where Qi denotes the flood-peak series (after baseflow
subtraction) with n values. Table 1 shows that the
standard deviation of the logarithms of QMPF is very
high. The standard deviation of QMPF can sometimes
be interpreted as a measure of flash flooding potential
(Beard, 1975; Patton & Baker, 1976; Enzel et al.,

Table 1 Statistics of wadis log flood-peak (QMPF) records.

Station ID Wadi name Period of records logQ Number of events Mann-Kendall trend at 0.05 level

Mean St. dev.

FA395799AD Lansab 1997–2007 1.34 0.61 20 No trend

FA777631AD Hayfadh 1997–2007 1.10 0.75 15 Downward trend
FA160968AD Al ’Uqq 1997–2007 1.74 0.34 19 No trend
FA585595AD Manzariyah 1997–2007 1.62 0.48 27 No trend
EL574613AD Awabi 1997–2006 1.41 0.46 36 Upward trend
FB505467AD Aday 1996–2007 1.81 0.87 18 No trend
GA057335AD Arabiyin 1997–2007 2.11 0.67 20 No trend
FA596055AD Mayh 1996–2007 1.62 0.59 35 No trend
EL895407AD Afi 1997–2007 1.55 0.55 34 No trend
FA877343AD Miglas 1997–2007 1.70 0.90 13 No trend
FB104840AD Al Khawd 1998–2007 1.60 0.87 19 Upward trend
FA950420AD Dayqah 2004–2007 2.35 0.78 14 Upward trend
Total 270
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman
1993), with higher standard deviations indicating a
larger potential for flash floods.
The analysis of these flood events shows that the
hydrograph behaviour of the cyclone event that took
place on 6 June 2007 for all stations was different from
the other recorded events. It shows a smooth rising
limb, whereas the other events have very steep rising
hydrographs. However, the peak discharge was very
high and reached more than 2000 m3/s at many sta-
tions across the study area.
In most cases, baseflow is present but is season-
ally dependent. Excluding the “Gonu” events in June
2007, the data show that baseflow occurs in the
months of March and April. Other studies (McIntyre
et al., 2007; Kwarteng et al., 2008) mentioned that the
largest rainfall events in this study region were in
January, February and March. In most of the cases,
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baseflow is very small compared to peak flows (less
than 5%) in all wadis, except Wadi Dayqah where the
baseflow persists for almost the entire year. Usually, in
most cases, baseflow has a minor influence and con-
tributes little to the total storm runoff (ASCE, 1996).
Therefore, inaccuracies in baseflow separation may
not be very important (Viessman & Lewis, 2002). In
this work, a straight line method of baseflow separa-
tion was used. To ensure quality control in baseflow
separation, a comparison to a nearby watershed was
made in order to check the consistency of flow in event
periods. For inter-event periods, the separation of
peaks was conducted when there was no rainfall for
more than three hours.
Trend analysis: Mann-Kendall test
Trend analysis of hydrological time series is important
for global climate change effects and water resources
management and planning. A common non-para-
metric trend detection used in hydrological time series
data is the Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945; Kendall,
1975). Many studies (e.g. Onoz & Bayazit, 2003; Déry
& Wood, 2005; Hamed, 2008; Kwarteng et al., 2008)
have used the Mann-Kendall test for trend detection in
hydrological time series data, specifically peak
streamflow records.
Extraction of watershed characteristics
An accurate, 40-m DEM was used to extract 14
watershed characteristics representing the geomor-
phologic properties of the 12 watersheds under inves-
tigation. All watershed boundaries were generated
381
using the ARC Hydro extension in ArcMap 9.1. In
order to verify the accuracy of the generated
watershed boundaries, they were checked with
respect to the same watershed boundaries generated
from topographic maps by the MRMWR in Oman.
Additionally, high-resolution IKONOS satellite ima-
gery for the same areas was employed to double
check the boundaries and wadi channel paths. In
some cases, drainage areas were edited (e.g. the Afi
and Al Khawd watersheds) and some other gauge
stations (e.g. Awabi) were slightly re-located. Also,
DEM reconditioning using GIS ArcMap was imple-
mented; this system adjusts the surface elevation of
the DEM to be consistent with vector coverage of
drainage streams provided by the MRMWR. The
DEM reconditioning produced a large difference in
the extracted watershed characteristics.
Seven watershed characteristics were generated
directly by the GIS, and the rest were calculated from
these seven. All the variables were transformed later
by taking the common logarithms for the regression
analysis.
Drainage area (DA; km2) is assumed to be the
same area of bounded watershed that contributes to
surface runoff. DA was delineated from the DEM by
computing the flow direction. Nouh (1990) found that
the accuracy of runoff prediction decreases as the size
of the catchment increases. Basin length (BL; km) is
defined using the Arc Hydro Basin Length function in
its Watershed Processing routine. A “cost” at each grid
cell is determined using the square of the inverse of the
Euclidian distance to each boundary cell. The line
along which basin length is measured is positioned
where the cost is a minimum delineated by using the
geometry to travel through the approximated centroid
of the basin. Wadi length (WL; km) is computed as the
longest flow path (including flow in the main channel)
in the watershed. Mean basin elevation (BE; m) is
measured in metres above sea level and is the mean
watershed altitude. Basin slope (BS; %) is the mean
basin slope and is measured by calculating the
maximum rate of change between each cell and its
eight neighbours. It provides an indication of the
steepness of the drainage area. Costa (1987) found
that basins producing flash floods were not
particularly steep, nor were they characterized by a
very high drainage density. Nouh (1990) claims that,
as the slope decreases, catchment soils become more
permeable and thus the effect of infiltration becomes
 382 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

more significant. Basin perimeter (BP; km) is the DA

BW ¼ (6)
distance measured around a basin boundary. WL

The basin shape factor (SF; dimensionless) Slope ratio (SR; no units) is computed by
(Patra, 2001) is expressed as the ratio of the square dividing the wadi slope by the basin slope:
of the valley length to the watershed area. Because of
the high variability of arid watershed characteristics, WS
every basin is expected to have a unique shape. In this SR ¼ (7)
BS
study, SF was computed by dividing the squared wadi
length by basin area: Slope proportion (SP; dimensionless) is
computed by dividing the wadi length by the wadi
WL2 slope:
SF ¼ (2)
DA
WL
The SF is expected to be <1 if the watershed is long SP ¼ (8)
and narrow and SF ¼ 1 if the watershed is square WS0:5
(Patra, 2001). Some studies, including Newson The percentage of urbanized area (U) and the per-
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(1994), stated that studies done in many regions of
the world have shown that basin shape is less reliable
as a flood indicator than basin size and slope. Nouh
(1990) noted that the effect of catchment shape on the
accuracy of runoff prediction is insignificant.
centage of greenness or farm area (FR) were deter-
mined manually by using the watershed boundaries
and high-resolution satellite imagery (IKONOS and
ASTER). The statistical descriptions of these charac-
teristics are shown in Table 2.

Drainage density (DD; km/km2) is computed by

dividing the total sum of all stream lengths (SL; km) in
the basin by the drainage area: Correlation and regression analysis
P Flood-peak flow (Q) is expressed as a function of the
SL
DD ¼ (3) independent variables mentioned above. For a good
DA estimation of Q, the relationship should ideally contain

Wadi slope (WS; m/km) was calculated by

determining the elevations at the gauge station Table 2 Watershed characteristics for 12 selected wadi
(Egauge) and at 85% of the distance along WL gauging stations in Oman.
(E0.85WL), and then dividing the difference in
Watershed characteristic St. Range
elevation between these two points by the length of Mean dev.
that wadi channel connecting the two points: Min Max
3
Wadi flow, Q (m /s) 240.06 264.17 60.50 1061.76
E0:85WL  Egauge Drainage area, DA (km2)
WS ¼ (4) 532.77 549.62 46.00 1730.00
0:85WL Basin length, BL (km) 34.44 16.68 9.69 69.29
Wadi length, WL (km) 46.03 24.13 15.50 93.50
The elongation ratio (ER; no units), originally Shape factor, SF (1) 5.03 0.91 3.06 6.42
Basin elevation, BE (m) 757.66 319.70 311.43 1502.22
proposed by Schumm (1956), is the ratio of the dia- Basin slope, BS (%) 29.91 8.60 17.28 49.32
meter of a circle with the same area to the maximum Drainage density, DD 2.25 0.43 1.45 3.15
length of the valley: (km/km2)
Basin perimeter, BP (km) 164.88 97.29 46.24 366.16
 0:5  0:5 Wadi slope, WS (m/km) 14.56 10.24 4.50 36.22
4DA 1 Elongation ratio, ER (-) 0.51 0.05 0.45 0.65
ER ¼ ¼ 1:13 (5) Basin width, BW (km) 9.25 4.77 2.97 18.50
pWL2 SF Slope ratio, SR (-) 0.48 0.29 0.16 1.21
Slope proportion, SP (-) 14.97 10.20 3.09 35.35
Basin width (BW; km) is computed by dividing Urbanized area, U (%) 0.48 0.38 0.08 1.45
the drainage area by the wadi length: Farms, FR (%) 0.26 0.19 0.05 0.66
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman
independent variables and be statistically significant
and physically sensible. To derive the relationship
between Q and independent variables, inspection and
correlation analysis, through to stepwise regression
and finishing with multiple regression steps are
implemented.
In statistical analyses of water resources applica-
tions, unique basin characteristics are assumed to be
independent variables, but in fact, there are some sig-
nificant relations or multi-colinearity among these
variables, which may be problematic. Thus, correla-
tion analysis within variables of watershed character-
istics and with wadi flood-peak flow Q was examined.
Furthermore, graphical scatter plots were evaluated to
identify possible interdependencies. A Pearson corre-
lation coefficient analysis was used to compare the
basin characteristics data. Correlations were consid-
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ered high where the absolute value of Pearson’s r was
greater than or equal to 0.80.
Backward stepwise multiple linear regression
analysis was performed on watershed characteristics
with mean peak flow (QMPF), where the weakest pre-
dictor (highest sig.-p value) variable was removed in
each step and the regression re-calculated until only
useful predictor variables remain in the model.
Statistical significance was evaluated for each model
and in the independent variable. In this study’s multi-
ple regression analysis, the research hypotheses is that
for arid regions the watershed characteristics that
influence flood-peak flow are different to those in
non-arid regions.
The regression equation takes the following form:
QMPF ¼ b0  Ab1
1  A2  A3  ::: Ai
b2 b3 bi
(9)
where QMPF is the estimated mean peak flow (m3/s);
A1 to Ai are the explanatory variables; b1 to bi are the
regression coefficients; and b0 is a constant. This form
was chosen to be consistent with other regression
studies found in the literature.
Two methods for independent variable selection
were implemented in this study. The first method (A)
uses only the delineated and computed watershed’s
physical characteristics based on the DEM. The vari-
ables used in Method A are: DA, SF, BE, DD and WS.
In Method B, the effects of urbanization were investi-
gated by adding the variables of the percentage of
urbanized area (U) and the percentage of greenness/
farm area (FR) of each watershed. Previous studies on
wadi hydrology show that there is a lack of informa-
tion on urbanization and land-use impacts on runoff;
383
the importance of this research gap has been pointed
out by Cordery et al. (1983), Pilgrim et al. (1988) and
Singh (2009).
A comparison of both the regression coefficient of
determination (R2) and the p value observed between
the methods A and B helped in selecting a model that
most accurately predicts the flood peak for 16 new
watersheds in the validation process.
Flood-peak frequency estimation from watershed
characteristics
In recent years Oman has experienced floods almost
every year in the form of flash floods. There are many
reasons for the accelerating frequency of flooding
experienced in Oman, specifically in the last 10 years.
Fast urban growth may be one of the key contributors to
this problem. The relationships between watershed
characteristics and various flood-peak return periods,
Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100, were analysed in the same
manner as the relationship between the watershed char-
acteristics and QMPF. Flood-peak return periods were
obtained from Ministry (MRMWR) tables. These return
periods were derived by multiplying the estimates of
QMAF by a “flood growth factor”. These flood growth
factors were developed by the MRMWR for Oman by
using a Cunnane plotting position on a partial duration
series and then fitting a straight line to the higher return
period flows (greater than 2 years). Farquharson et al.
(1992) indexed floods in Saudi Arabia by the 5-year
flood return period. In that study, watershed character-
istics were also related to flood-peak frequency values
derived from flood-peak frequency curves available for
the same selected calibration watersheds.
Model validation
One of the main benefits of deriving a relationship for
QMPF in terms of watershed characteristics is to esti-
mate QMPF in ungauged watersheds; thus, model vali-
dation is essential. For this purpose, QMPF values are
estimated (predicted QMPF) using the derived models
and compared with the original values (observed
QMPF). Additionally, QMPF values for 16 other water-
sheds are used to validate the relationships (these were
not used to develop the derived relationships). Several
accuracy tests are used to assess the ability of the
relationship to predict QMPF. These include average
percent error (%E), the Nash–Sutcliffe model effi-
ciency coefficient (E), root mean square error
(RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (R2).
 384 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
All 12 watersheds in this study exhibit high variability
in flood-peak discharges, as shown in Table 1; for half
of the stations the standard deviation is more than 35%
of the mean. Wadi Dayqah (station ID: FA950420AD)
scored the highest QMPF. The Mann-Kendall test
showed that most of the wadis showed no significant
trend, except Wadi Hayfadh (FA777631AD),
Wadi Awabi (EL574613AD), Wadi Al Khawd
(FB104840AD) and Wadi Dayqah (FA950420AD),
as shown in Table 1. Wadi Hayfadh was a borderline
case, where the flood-peak discharge showed a sig-
nificantly declining trend over time (p ¼ 0.046). Wadi
Al Khawd and Wadi Dayqah showed a significantly
increasing trend in flood-peak discharges with
p values of 0.009 and 0.011, respectively. The latter
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two stations are located in urban areas, specifically Al
Khawd watershed where at least two residential areas
are bounded by this watershed. Kotwicki et al. (2007)
also found a similar upward trend in Wadi Dayqah.
Fast urban growth in this region is one of the most
likely reasons behind the increase in flood-peak dis-
charge. Kwarteng et al. (2008), in their analysis of
27 years of Oman rainfall data, stated that no signifi-
cant trend was found in rainfall for the same region in
Oman. Hamed (2008) investigated a group of 57 total
annual river flow time series worldwide. His results
indicated that highly significant increasing trends
seem to be more common than negative ones.
Table 2 shows the watershed characteristics for
the calibration watersheds used in this study; the high
variability in all of the watershed properties is a com-
mon feature in arid region watersheds. The SF values
in all the watersheds used in this study are > 1 which
means they do not have an elongated shape. Singh
(1997) stated that the influence of storm movement
was more pronounced on elongated watersheds than
on bulbous-shaped ones. Because the shape of water-
sheds in this region is more circular than elongated, the
time to peak, Tp, in this region is expected to be shorter
with a steeper rise in the flow hydrograph when the
storm is moving downstream. Therefore, this region
tends to have a greater potential for flash floods.
Using Pearson’s (linear) correlations, highly cor-
related watershed characteristics were determined
when the absolute value of the correlation coefficient,
r, exceeded 0.80. First, DA is found to be significantly
positively correlated with BL, WL, BP, BW and SP. In
this case, only DA can be used as an independent
variable representing this group of watershed
characteristics in multiple regression analysis.
Second, SF is significantly negatively correlated with
ER (r ¼ -0.98); third, BE is also significantly posi-
tively correlated with BS; and finally, WS is signifi-
cantly positively correlated with SR. Drainage density
(DD) does not exhibit any significant correlation with
any of the basin characteristics. Both U and FR are
positively but insignificantly correlated (r ¼ 0.34);
they are not significantly correlated to any of the
other variables. Given this, only seven of the main
variables were selected as independent variables to
avoid information redundancy or multi-colinearity
problems in the multiple regression analysis: DA, SF,
BE, DD, WS, U and FR.
Figure 2 shows a scatter plot between QMPF and
these variables (except U). Not surprisingly, the wadi
mean peak flow (QMPF) is highly positively correlated
with drainage density DA (Fig. 2(a)). This means that
larger watersheds are expected to have a higher mean
peak flow. A comparative study on wadi flow done for
similar arid regions in the Arabian Gulf States by
Nouh (2006), found a similar result. He found that
the effect of drainage basin size on predicting mean
peak flows is positively related and larger than that of
drainage basin altitude.
Method A
Table 3 shows the results for Method A that includes
variables DA, SF, BE, DD and WS. This table shows
that adjusted R2 decreases with a decrease in the num-
ber of watershed characteristics, and including more
watershed characteristics improves the predictive
power of the regression equation in terms of R2.
Table 3 also assesses the overall significance of our
model and when p < 0.05 the model is considered
significant. In this table, Model 1, which included all
five variables, accounted for 73% of the variance
(adjusted R2 ¼ 50%). The removal of SF (Model 2),
which was the least significant variable (data not pro-
vided) from Model 1, resulted in a decrease of 1% in
R2 (or 1% decrease in the variance being explained),
but adjusted R2 increased by 7%. Removing DD from
Model 2 accounted for 72% of the variance (adjusted
R2 ¼ 0.61) in Model 3. In Model 3, adjusted R2
increased by 5%. In addition, this Model 3 became
more significant with a p value of 0.014 (<0.05).
Removing further variables such as BE in Model 4
results in an adjusted R2 decreasing by 7%.
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman 385

10000 10000

1000

QMAF, m3/s
1000

QMAF, m3/s
100 100

10 10
10 100 1000 10000 10 100 1000 10000
(a) DA, km2 (b) BE, m

10000 10000

1000
QMAF, m3/s

1000

QMAF, m3/s
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100 100

10 10
1 10 0 2 4
(c) SF, km/km (d) DD, m/m

10000 10000
QMAF, m3/s
QMAF, m3/s

1000 1000

100 100

10 10
1 10 100 0.00 0.50 1.00
WS, m/km FR, %
(e) (f)

Fig. 2 Scatter plot between QMPF and (a) DA, (b) BE, (c) SF, (d) DD, (e) WS and (f) FR.

Because of the multi-colinearity in watershed
characteristics mentioned earlier, several choices
were made as to which variable to include or exclude
when correlated with another. Recall the correlation
between SF and ER. Since the definition of shape
factor in this study gives an indication of a watershed’s
elongation (when SF < 1), the authors preferred to
select SF (r ¼ 0.14) in the regression analysis rather
than ER (r ¼ -0.18). The DA, WS and BE contain
much of the information presented by SF and DD.
These results show that removing DD improves the
adjusted R2, thus, implying that DD is not a significant
variable in QMPF prediction. Drainage density (DD) is
always higher on impermeable rocks and clays and
less in permeable rocks and sands. Due to the lack of
information on the type and distribution of rocks and
soil in this region, this may justify the removal of DD
as an insignificant variable, although the regression
results show an expected positive relationship between
DD and flood-peak discharge.
Therefore, QMPF can well be estimated from
Model 3 in Table 3 where adjusted R2 has the highest
value and the model p value is significant (<0.05). The
multiple regression equation is:
QMPF ¼ 56:77DA0:863 WS0:670 BE0:851 (10)
This indicates that QMPF is affected by these watershed
characteristics and that some watershed characteristics
are more useful than others in QMPF prediction.
 386 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

Table 3 Selection of regression models for Method A.

Q Model R2 Adj. R2
Adj. R2 Sig. Variables used

QMPF 1 0.73 0.50 0.095 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE

2 0.72 0.57 0.07 0.039 DA, WS, DD, BE
3 0.72 0.61 0.05 0.014 DA, WS, BE
4 0.63 0.54 -0.07 0.012 DA, WS
Q5 1 0.76 0.56 0.069 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE
2 0.76 0.62 0.06 0.026 DA, WS, DD, BE
3 0.75 0.66 0.04 0.008 DA, WS, BE
4 0.74 0.68 0.02 0.002 DA, WS
5 0.70 0.67 -0.02 0.001 DA
Q10 1 0.70 0.45 0.121 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE
2 0.70 0.53 0.08 0.052 DA, WS, DD, BE
3 0.69 0.58 0.05 0.019 DA, WS, BE
4 0.67 0.60 0.02 0.007 DA, WS
5 0.64 0.61 0.01 0.002 DA
Q20 1 0.67 0.39 0.155 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE
2 0.67 0.48 0.08 0.071 DA, SF, WS, BE
3 0.66 0.53 0.05 0.029 DA, WS, BE
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4 0.63 0.55 0.02 0.011 DA, WS

5 0.61 0.57 0.02 0.003 DA
Q50 1 0.65 0.35 0.184 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE
2 0.64 0.44 0.09 0.087 DA, SF, WS, BE
3 0.63 0.49 0.05 0.038 DA, WS, BE
4 0.60 0.52 0.02 0.016 DA, WS
5 0.58 0.54 0.03 0.004 DA
Q100 1 0.64 0.33 0.198 DA, SF, WS, DD, BE
2 0.63 0.42 0.09 0.096 DA, SF, WS, BE
3 0.62 0.47 0.05 0.044 DA, WS, BE
4 0.59 0.50 0.02 0.018 DA, WS
5 0.57 0.53 0.03 0.005 DA

Equation (10) describes a new relationship between
QMPF and watershed characteristics for this arid region
that differs from equations found for humid regions
(e.g. Kokkonen et al., 2003). For example, BE in
equation (10) is the least powerful explanatory vari-
able in the regression, and negatively related to QMPF.
This implies that lower elevation catchments have
larger peak flow, whereas, for example, Kokkonen
et al. (2003) in their study in North Carolina found
that elevation was the most powerful explanatory vari-
able in the regressions and higher elevated catchments
have quicker responses and greater yields than catch-
ments at lower elevations. Furthermore, equation (10)
also differs from previous studies for arid and semi-
arid regions (e.g. Patton & Baker, 1976; Costa, 1987;
Nouh, 2006). For example, Nouh (2006) found that
only two variables, the drainage area and elevation,
were sufficient to estimate the mean peak flood flow,
and both were positively related to the mean peak
flood flow. Equation (10) has WS in addition to DA
and BE and shows a negative relationship between
QMPF and BE.
In a similar manner, the relationships between
flood-peak frequency discharge and watershed char-
acteristics were determined. For Q5 in Table 3,
Model 4 with only two variables of DA and WS
was selected as the best model to represent Q5
estimation.
It was noticed from Table 3 that there is a trend in
QMPF, Q5, Q10 and Q20, Q50, Q100, where in the first
three flood-peak flows, the absence of only shape
factor (SF) produces a significant model of p  0.05
(Model 2). In the cases of Q20, Q50, Q100, the absence
of both drainage density (DD) and shape factor (SF)
produces a significant model of p < 0.05 (Model 3).
Furthermore, for QMPF, Q5 and Q10, SF was excluded
first and then DD, whereas in the case of the second
group (Q20, Q50 and Q100), DD was excluded first and
then SF. Another observation was that adjusted R2 in
Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100 continues to increase until one
reaches Model 5. For consistency, the authors decided
to choose Model 4 as representative of Method A in
Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100. Method A regression
equations that describe the relationship between
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman 387

watershed characteristics and different return periods Q20, Q50 and Q100. This implies that including only FR
flood-peak flows are: may give better results in terms of the effect of urba-
nization. Model 2 equations (16)–(21) were selected to
Q5 ¼ 2:55DA0:720 WS0:268 (11) estimate flood-peak discharges that include the urba-
nization effect (through the increase in greenness/farm
Q10 ¼ 5:28DA0:692 WS0:221 (12) area):

Q20 ¼ 8:04DA0:680 WS0:202 (13) QMPF ¼ 2:28DA0:974 WS0:778 BE0:608 FR0:457

(16)
Q50 ¼ 11:67DA0:673 WS0:189 (14)
Q5 ¼ 0:45DA0:847 WS0:445 FR0:349 (17)
Q100 ¼ 14:42DA 0:669
WS
0:183
(15)
Q10 ¼ 0:57DA0:857 WS0:450 FR0:451 (18)

Q20 ¼ 0:68DA0:863 WS0:456 FR0:500 (19)

Method B: Effect of urbanization
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In this method, the effect of urbanization was investi-
gated by adding percentage of urbanized area (U) and
the percentage of agricultural/farm area (FR) for each
watershed. In Oman, most of the farms are developed
alongside the urban areas (with the owners) and both
are located along the wadis and water sources. This is
particularly true for the villages that are scattered in the
mountainous areas. Table 4 shows that in all flood-
peak return periods, adding FR causes an increase in
adjusted R2 and the significance level of the model.
For example, adjusted R2 has increased from 61% in
Model 1 to 74% by adding FR. Including U decreases
R2 to 72%. In addition, Model 2 became more signifi-
cant. The same observation was noticed for Q5, Q10,
Q50 ¼ 0:81DA0:870 WS0:463 FR0:539 (20)
Q100 ¼ 0:92DA0:873 WS0:466 FR0:558 (21)
Table 5 shows the regression results for Method B,
Model 2 and the unstandardized B coefficients (partial
regression coefficients) which give a measure of the
contribution of each variable to the model. A large
value indicates that a unit change in this independent
variable has a large effect on the dependent variable
(the wadi flood-peak discharge QMPF, Q5, Q10, Q20,
Q50 and Q100). The t and sig. (p) values give a
rough indication of the impact of each independent

Table 4 Effect of urbanization, U, and FR.

Q Model R2 Adj. R2
Adj. R2 Sig. Variables used

QMPF 1 0.72 0.61 0.014 DA, WS, BE

2 0.83 0.74 0.12 0.008 DA, WS, BE, FR
3 0.85 0.72 -0.01 0.019 DA, WS, BE, FR, U
Q5 1 0.74 0.68 0.002 DA, WS
2 0.81 0.74 0.06 0.003 DA, WS, FR
3 0.81 0.71 -0.03 0.011 DA, WS, FR, U
Q10 1 0.67 0.60 0.007 DA, WS
2 0.79 0.71 0.11 0.005 DA, WS, FR
3 0.79 0.67 -0.04 0.016 DA, WS, FR, U
Q20 1 0.63 0.55 0.011 DA, WS
2 0.77 0.69 0.13 0.006 DA, WS, FR
3 0.78 0.65 -0.04 0.020 DA, WS, FR, U
Q50 1 0.60 0.52 0.016 DA, WS
2 0.76 0.67 0.15 0.008 DA, WS, FR
3 0.76 0.63 -0.04 0.024 DA, WS, FR, U
Q100 1 0.59 0.50 0.018 DA, WS
2 0.75 0.66 0.16 0.008 DA, WS, FR
3 0.76 0.62 -0.04 0.026 DA, WS, FR, U
 388 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

Table 5 Coefficients of Method B.

Model Unstandardized coefficients Standardized coefficients t Sig.

B Std. error Beta

QMPF (Constant) 0.824 2.506 .329 0.752

ln(DA) 0.974 0.174 1.249 5.594 0.001
ln(WS) 0.778 0.301 0.665 2.582 0.036
ln(BE) -0.608 0.444 -0.332 -1.370 0.213
ln(FR) -0.457 0.211 -0.412 -2.163 0.067
Q5 (Constant) -0.789 1.455 -0.542 0.602
ln(DA) 0.847 0.150 1.098 5.637 0.000
ln(WS) 0.445 0.222 0.384 2.008 0.080
ln(FR) -0.349 0.201 -0.318 -1.742 0.120
Q10 (Constant) -0.562 1.567 -0.359 0.729
ln(DA) 0.857 0.162 1.092 5.291 0.001
ln(WS) 0.450 0.239 0.383 1.887 0.096
ln(FR) -0.451 0.216 -0.404 -2.086 0.070
Q20 (Constant) -0.388 1.651 -0.235 0.820
ln(DA) 0.863 0.171 1.083 5.060 0.001
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ln(WS) 0.456 0.252 0.381 1.814 0.107

ln(FR) -0.500 0.228 -0.441 -2.198 0.059
Q50 (Constant) -0.205 1.726 -0.119 0.909
ln(DA) 0.870 0.178 1.073 4.876 0.001
ln(WS) 0.463 0.263 0.381 1.760 0.116
ln(FR) -0.539 0.238 -0.467 -2.264 0.053
Q100 (Constant) -0.085 1.763 -0.048 0.963
ln(DA) 0.873 0.182 1.068 4.793 0.001
ln(WS) 0.466 0.268 0.381 1.737 0.121
ln(FR) -0.558 0.243 -0.480 -2.295 0.051

variable – a big absolute t value and small p value
suggest that an independent variable is having a large
impact on the dependent variable. For example, the
DA in all the models has the biggest significant impact
on flood-peak discharge prediction. In the case of
standardized coefficients, the intercept of the regres-
sion equation becomes zero and the change in the
dependent variable (e.g. QMPF) is expressed in stan-
dard deviation units produced by one standard devia-
tion in the independent variable concerned.
Standardized regression coefficients (beta weights)
in a multiple regression equation are measured on the
same scale with a mean of zero and a standard deviation
of one. They are useful for determining which of the
independent variables has a greater effect on the depen-
dent variable in multiple regression analysis, specifi-
cally when the variables are measured in different units.
Beta weights give the number of standard deviation
changes on the flood-peak discharge that will be pro-
duced by a change of one standard deviation on the
watershed characteristics concerned. For QMPF in
Table 5, DA has the greatest contribution, where a
change of one standard deviation in DA produces a
change of 1.249 standard deviations in QMPF (the next
largest is 0.665). Table 5 also shows that BE has the
least impact on QMPF. In the case of Q10, Q20, Q50 and
Q100, WS has the least impact. However, WS has more
of an impact on Q5 than FR.
In this study where both the dependent variable
(e.g. QMPF) and independent variables (e.g. DA, WS
and FR) are log-transformed, observing coefficients
between 0 and 1 is typical in log-log regression. In this
case, the coefficient of the predictor variable is inter-
preted as the percentage change in the dependent vari-
able, while the predictor variable increases by 1%
(Gelman & Hill, 2007). For the QMPF model, a 1%
increase in DA would yield a 0.974% increase in
QMPF. Similarly, 1% increase in WS would yield a
0.778% increase, etc. The QMPF model also shows a
negative relationship with BE. As Fig. 1 shows, the
gauge stations are located at the lower elevations,
which are in turn located at the alluvial mouth
(example: Al Khawd station) where more surface run-
off is collected from all of the mountainous area within
the same watershed. All models show a negative rela-
tionship between FR and QMPF in this region where
having very little farming area results in less infiltra-
tion water use by vegetation and, thus, more surface
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman
runoff. The regression results show that larger DA and
WS and lower BE and FR tend to produce higher
QMPF. Similarly, watersheds with higher elevations
(particularly in the mountainous areas) with smaller
DA, tend to have lower QMPF.
Similarly, the larger DA and the smaller FR, the
higher is QMPF. A good example of this type of
watershed is Wadi Dayqah (the biggest watershed,
with DA ¼ 1730 km2, the least FR ¼ 0.19% and the
highest QMPF ¼ 1062 m3/s). Most of the literature
notes that the most important factors in predicting
flood-peak discharges are DA and WS. However,
Table 5 shows that FR plays an important part (after
DA and even before WS) in predicting flood-peak
discharge, especially for higher return periods (Q10,
Q20, Q50 and Q100), and this variable should not be
ignored in flood studies in this region.
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A similar trend in Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100
flood peaks was found where the impact of DA and
WS on flood-peak frequency decreases for higher
flood-peak return periods, and the impact of FR on
flood-peak frequency increases for higher flood-peak
return periods. To compare which predictor has more
effect on flood-peak estimation, the standardized beta
coefficients in Fig. 3 show that DA has the largest
impact on flood-peak estimation, followed by FR
and WS respectively. A trend could be observed in
that the effect of urbanization increases with increas-
ing return period.
Validation and comparison with MRMWR
method
The derived regression equations of both Method A
(Model 3 for QMPF and Model 4 for Q5 to Q100) and
Method B (Model 2) were used to estimate flood-peak
discharges for 16 watersheds that were not used in the
calibration procedure. These new watersheds are
Drainage area, DA
1.100 .385
.384
1.095
.384
Beta weights
Beta weights
1.090 .383
1.085 .383
1.080 .382
.382
1.075
.381
1.070 .381
1.065 .380
1 10 100
Return Period (yrs)
Fig. 3 Effect of DA, WS and FR on QT.
389
located in the same region (northern Oman) and vary
in size from 39 to 2125 km2 and in altitude from 270 to
1764 m (a wider range than the calibration water-
sheds). Details of these validation watersheds and
their derived characteristics and both observed and
predicted QMPF values are shown in Table 6. No
dam-affected watersheds were included in the valida-
tion set. The accuracy assessment statistics for the
validation are shown in Table 7.
An updated method (equation (22)) developed by
the MRMWR in 2007 is currently distributed by the
Ministry to all engineering consultants to be used to
estimate design floods for watersheds of more than
10 km2.
QMPF ¼ 1:91DA0:76 WS0:20 NM0:15 (22)
where NM is the ratio of non-mountain (flat, alluvial)
watershed to the total watershed area. From the above
relationship, we can also see that area and slope have a
positive relationship with QMPF and NM is negatively
related to QMPF. Similar to the other findings of this
study, BE and NM are both negatively related to QMPF.
A lower NM ratio is usually associated with basin
altitude BE and both tend to produce higher QMPF.
For the purposes of a comparison, all models
(Method A, Method B and MRMWR) were tested on
the validation set to estimate flood-peak discharges, as
shown in Table 7. For QMPF, methods A and B produce
the same percentage error of 45%, and RMSE of 116,
where MRMWR produces 79% error and RMSE of
228. Method B has the highest R2 ¼ 63%, compared to
52% and 48% for Methods A and MRMWR,
respectively.
Method B, which takes into account urbanization
effects, was the best model in terms of R2 in all cases.
For Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100, values of both %E and
RMSE indices were less in Method A, although the
Wadi slope, WS Agricultural/Farms, FR
.500
.480
.460
Beta weights
.440
.420
.400
.380
.360
.340
.320
.300
1 10 100 1 10 100
Return Period (yrs) Return Period (yrs)
 390 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo

Table 6 Validation watersheds characteristics. encouraging. Figure 5 shows that the scatter of both
Range
calibration and validation watersheds is clustered
Watershed characteristic Mean St. dev.
along a relatively straight line.
Min Max

DA 547.03 583.96 39.29 2124.80 Comparison with different climate, Salalah

SF 5.82 1.89 2.92 10.91
WS 21.73 22.10 4.28 94.83 One of the problems facing rainfall–runoff modelling
DD 2.37 0.92 1.04 4.93
BE 995.53 378.65 269.93 1764.03 in arid regions stated by Pilgrim et al. (1988) was that
U 0.19 0.16 0.02 0.65 the climatological differences may require modifica-
FR 0.41 0.21 0.08 0.75 tion of the models and techniques appropriate to dif-
Observed QMPF 242.94 149.71 58.00 703.00
Predicted QMPF 172.06 108.64 44.43 474.33
ferent regions. To investigate this, the model equation
was tested on a climatologically-different region,
Salalah, in the southern part of Oman, that is more
than 1000 km away from the study area.
Table 7 Accuracy assessment.
Salalah has a unique and moderate climate through-
%E E RMSE R2 out the year, and is different from the rest of the Arabian
Peninsula. In the summer season, the temperature ranges
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QMPF Method A 44.59 0.39 116.45 0.52

Method B 44.94 0.40 115.83 0.63 between 24 and 30 C; at the same time of year, the
MRMWR model 79.48 -1.31 227.68 0.48 temperature can exceed 45 and 50 C in the coastal
Q5 Method A 36.45 0.59 191.05 0.62 and interior regions of northern Oman, respectively.
Method B 35.95 0.61 186.40 0.72 Furthermore, the Dhofar Mountains that bound the
MRMWR model 72.07 -0.76 396.66 0.62
Salalah Plain have lower rainfall intensities than in the
Q10 Method A 34.71 0.54 341.73 0.58
Method B 34.51 0.53 348.25 0.66 rest of the Oman region (Kwarteng et al., 2008). Three
MRMWR model 68.19 -0.22 560.47 0.59 watersheds from Salalah ranging in size from 102 to
Q20 Method A 36.01 0.51 507.26 0.54 213 km2 were tested using the Method B model (equa-
Method B 37.32 0.46 528.89 0.61 tion (16)). The results show that two watersheds were
MRMWR model 72.88 -0.14 772.95 0.56
underestimated with a percentage error of 73% and
Q50 Method A 38.75 0.48 729.52 0.52
Method B 41.15 0.43 767.44 0.57 25%, and one overestimated with 9% percentage error
MRMWR model 73.99 -0.01 1017.46 0.54 (Table 8). Figure 5 shows that at least one of the Salalah
Q100 Method A 40.08 0.47 901.58 0.51 points has a high error (%E ¼ -73%) and falls away
Method B 43.20 0.40 953.48 0.55 from the 1:1 line. This implies that the model is not
MRMWR model 74.63 0.05 1203.17 0.53 suitable for the Salalah region due to its different cli-
mate. Another reason is that the type of greenness/farms
difference is minor. Both methods A and B produced in Salalah is totally different to that in the study area. For
better results than the MRMWR model. Based on this example, the monsoon rain and the moderate weather
table, Method B’s Model 2 was selected as the best throughout the year help maintain natural vegetation in
model to estimate flood-peak discharge of all return the Salalah mountains, specifically in the Khareef sea-
periods used in this study. son (July–September) where all the mountains are cov-
Figure 4 compares the QMPF predictions using the ered by natural grass. Furthermore, unlike in the north of
models of methods A, B and MRMWR. The Method Oman, the urbanized areas in Salalah are concentrated
A model produced four overestimations and 12 under- on the coastal plain and not near or along the wadis in
estimations of QMPF; that of Method B produced three the mountainous areas. Given this, a new model speci-
overestimations and 13 underestimations; and the fically for this region would be more appropriate.
MRMWR model produced 12 overestimations and The observed flow data are for 1997–2007
four underestimations. Comparison between the (10 years) and some go back to 1996. This is a very
observed and predicted values of QMPF for all calibra- short period of record to use in estimating floods with
tion and validation stations is shown in Fig. 5. Despite return periods of 10 years or more. Thus, caution
the lack of some data that may impact on QMPF esti- should be exercised when using the selected model
mation (e.g. climate characteristics, rainfall, soil, geo- equations for high return periods. However, the results
logical characteristics), and the data limitation in the show that the selected model performs better than the
calibration procedure in this study, the results are MRMWR model for all return periods.
 Relationship between wadi drainage characteristics and peak-flood flows in arid northern Oman 391

10000
Validation stations

QMAF, m3/s 1000

100

10
DM578762AD

EA350697AD

EA479986AD

EL381641AD

EA638772AD

DB576043AD

EA144301AD

DB496929AD

EA546034AD

DC237976AD

EM304474AD

DB388507AD

EA330729AD

DB554869AD

FA968370AD

EV394690AD
Station ID
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MRMWR Model A Observed Model B

Fig. 4 Comparison of the three models.

10000 CONCLUSIONS
Mean peak flood-peak discharge was derived for
12 watersheds (size between 64 and 1730 km2) in
1000
Oman using 270 flood-peak flow events occurring
over 10 years of record. Fourteen watershed character-
Predicted QMAF, m3/s

istics were extracted and computed using a DEM and a

100
GIS. Several basin characteristics are highly corre-
lated, suggesting some limitations for use in multiple
regression analyses.
10
The conventional parameters of drainage area
(DA), shape factor (SF), wadi slope (WS), watershed
mean elevation (BE), and drainage density (DD) were
1
1 10 100 1000 10000 initially found to be the best predictors of wadi flood-
Observed QMAF, m3/s
peak discharge. However, an even better improvement
Calibration Validation Salalah Model line
in flood-peak discharge estimation was discovered
when the degree of urbanization was incorporated
Fig. 5 Scatterplot of relationships of QMPF. into the equation. The percentage of agricultural/farm
area (FR) was found to be an important factor in flood-
peak discharge prediction, especially for higher return
Table 8 Accuracy assessment for Salalah.
period floods. Including the FR improved R2 by 11%
over the traditional procedure of using only the
Station ID Location QMPF (m3/s) %E watershed size, slope and mean elevation. Moreover,
Observed Predicted including FR in the model on the validation water-
sheds provided a better prediction of flood-peak
BD095279 Salalah, Oman 53 14 -73 discharge.
AD997284 Salalah, Oman 49 37 -25
AD980966 Salalah, Oman 12 13 9 This study shows that urbanization and increase
of land use may not necessarily lead to an increase in
 392 Ghazi A. Al-Rawas & Caterina Valeo
flood-peak discharge, but may decrease the flood-peak
discharge due to the increase of greenness and farms
associated with urban expansion which causes greater
flow resistance and greater water use by vegetation.
Other studies have suggested that climate change
could be another contributor to the accelerated fre-
quency of flooding (Kotwicki, 2007; Bates et al.,
2008), and this requires further investigation. Larger
watersheds with higher wadi slope, lower altitude and
less agricultural/farm lands tend to have higher QMPF.
The relationship derived for this arid region was
not appropriate for flood-peak flow estimation in the
more humid climate of Salalah in the south of Oman.
This implies that, due to the diversity of characteristics
in the arid region, a model derived in one region (e.g.
northern Oman), will not necessarily be applicable in
another region (e.g. southern Oman), and the deriva-
Downloaded by [120.188.7.6] at 14:54 01 November 2017
tion of flood-peak discharge equations should be
regionally based, instead of using the same equation
for the whole country. The model derived in this study
shows better estimation of mean peak flow (QMPF)
compared to the model currently used in Oman.
However, underestimations were found in some water-
sheds using the model selected in this study.
Watershed mean elevation was not an important
factor for higher flood return period of Q5, Q10, Q20,
Q50 and Q100. Only DA, WS and FR were the key
variables in estimating Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100.
Larger watersheds with higher slopes and less agricul-
tural/farm lands tend to produce higher flood-peak
flow in all investigated return periods. The authors
found a similar trend in the effect of DA, WS and FR
in estimating Q5, Q10, Q20, Q50 and Q100. Among the
explanatory variables, DA has the most significant
positive impact on flood-peak frequency estimation,
followed by FR, which has a negative impact on flood-
peak discharge.
Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank
the reviewers and Prof. V. Kotwicki for their insightful
comments. We gratefully acknowledge Sultan Qaboos
University in Oman and the University of Calgary for
funding this work. The authors would also like to
thank the Ministry of Regional Municipalities &
Water Resources (MRMWR) in Oman.
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