POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 9TH NOVEMBER 2018, 6 AM AST

UltraPoll - Prince Edward

Island
Voter Intention Numbers
9th November 2018
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results
of a survey conducted between October 30th
and November 1st among a sample of 639
adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Prince
Edward Island. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart
IVR). Respondents were interviews on both
landlines and cellular phones.
The sampling frame was derived from both
a national telephone directory compiled
by Mainstreet Research from various
commercially available sources and random
digit dialing. The part of the survey that
dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the following regions;
Charlottetown and the rest of PEI. In the case
of random digit dials, respondents were asked
the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet
Research and was not sponsored by a third
party.
The margin of error for the first survey is +/-
3.87% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
With 20 years of political experience in all
three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on
international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes,
Mainstreet Research has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted
a majority NDP government in Alberta, and
was the only polling firm to correctly predict
a Liberal majority government in the 2015
federal election. Mainstreet also accurately
predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral
elections in November 2017, and the Alabama
special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is
a member of the World Association for Public
Opinion Research and meets international and
Canadian publication standards.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
PEI LIBERALS LEAD IN A THREE WAY BATTLE FOR THE TOP

9 November 2018 (Ottawa, ON) – The governing Liberals maintain their lead in voter
preference in Prince Edward Island, with the Green Party moving into second.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten
provincial polls. The poll surveyed 639 Prince Edward Islanders between October 30th and
November 1st. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.87% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The McLauchlan Liberals are still ahead and have gained support since we last polled in
July,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The three parties are
still close together even though the gap between first and third has widened.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan have 33.4%
support (+1.4% since July), while the Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker have 29.7% (+0.5%).
The Progressive Conservatives, who are now looking for a new leader, slip to third with
28.3% (-0.9%). The NDP with Joe Byrne at the helm have 6.7% (+1.3%).

The Greens and the Liberals are in a statistical tie among female voters, while the PCs lead
the Liberals by nearly four points among men.

Among the age groups, the Liberals have a substantial lead among 18-34s, while the PCs
have nearly a twenty point lead over the Liberals among those aged between 35 to 49.
Among the 50-64 age cohort, the Greens lead by three points, while the Liberals lead the
Greens by almost three points among respondents older than 65.

In terms of regional breakouts, the Liberals lead the Greens by 5.6% in Charlottetown, while
the Liberals have a three point lead over the Greens in the rest of PEI.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
 All Voters
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you
vote for?

Undecided 13.4%

Another Party 1.7% Liberals 29%

NDP 5.7%

All Voters

Greens 26.3%

Decided and Leaning

Progressive Conservatives 24%

Another Party 1.8%

NDP 6.7%
Liberals Progressive Conservatives Greens NDP

Another Party Undecided

Liberals 33.4%

Greens 29.7%

Decided and Leaning

Progressive Conservatives 28.3%

 If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 29% 28.5% 29.5% 44.4% 12.1% 28.5% 30.7% 29.7% 28.8%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 24% 29.2% 19% 18% 32.8% 22.7% 22.9% 19.9% 25.3%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 26.3% 21.9% 30.5% 19.6% 22.9% 30.9% 30.9% 28.1% 25.7%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 5.7% 5.2% 6.1% 10.7% 4.9% 4.6% 2.5% 7.5% 5.1%
Another Party 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% - 3.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.3% 1.5%
Undecided 13.4% 13.4% 13.4% 7.3% 23.6% 11.8% 11.4% 12.5% 13.7%
Unweighted Frequency 639 291 348 37 53 158 391 191 448
Weighted Frequency 639 313 326 156 151 189 143 161 478

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 31.1% 30.6% 31.6% 46.4% 14.7% 30% 33.3% 34.3% 30.1%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 26.2% 33.4% 19.3% 18% 40% 23.8% 23.8% 23.1% 27.2%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 27.4% 23.5% 31.2% 19.6% 25.2% 32.8% 31.2% 28.6% 27.1%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 6.2% 5.2% 7.2% 10.7% 7.3% 4.6% 2.5% 7.5% 5.8%
Another Party 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% - 3.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.3% 1.5%
Undecided 7.3% 5.4% 9.2% 5.4% 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 4.2% 8.4%
Unweighted Frequency 639 291 348 37 53 158 391 191 448
Weighted Frequency 639 313 326 156 151 189 143 161 476

(decided and leaning voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Charlottetown Rest of PEI
Liberals led by Wade MacLauchlan 33.4% 32% 34.7% 49.1% 16% 32.3% 36.1% 35.6% 32.7%
Progressive Conservatives led by James Aylward 28.3% 35.7% 21.3% 18.8% 44.1% 25.7% 25.7% 24.2% 29.7%
Greens led by Peter Bevan-Baker 29.7% 25% 34.3% 21% 27.7% 35.5% 33.8% 30% 29.6%
NDP led by Joe Byrne 6.7% 5.4% 8% 11.2% 8.2% 5% 2.7% 7.8% 6.4%
Another Party 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% - 4% 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 1.6%
Unweighted Frequency 593 279 314 35 49 147 362 181 412
Weighted Frequency 593 313 326 156 151 189 143 161 478
 QUESTIONNAIRE
If a provincial election were held What is your gender?
today, which party would you vote Male
for? Female
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party led
by Wade MacLauchlan What is your age group?
Progressive Conservative Party of 18 to 34 years of age
Prince Edward Island led by James 35 to 49 years of age
Aylward 50 to 64 years of age
Green Party of Prince Edward Island 65 years of age or older
led by Peter Bevan-Baker
New Democratic Party of Prince
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne
Undecided

And which party are you leaning

towards? (only asked of respondents
who were undecided in previous
question)
Prince Edward Island Liberal Party led
by Wade MacLauchlan
Progressive Conservative Party of
Prince Edward Island led by James
Aylward
Green Party of Prince Edward Island
led by Peter Bevan-Baker
New Democratic Party of Prince
Edward Island led by Joe Byrne
Undecided
 METHODOLOGY STATEMENT
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between October 30th,
2018 and November 1st, 2018, among a sample of 639 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Prince Edward Island. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording.
Respondents were interviews on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended
to represent the voting population of Prince Edward Island.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any
third-party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of two regions
in Prince Edward Island: Charlottetown and the rest of Prince Edward Island. In the case of
random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region of the
province they resided in. In both cases, respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 3.87% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 5.87%, Females: +/-
5.53%, 18-34 age group: +/- 16.11%, 35-49 age group: +/- 13.46%, 50-64 age group: +/- 8.08%,
65+ age group: +/- 5.15%, Charlottetown: +/- 7.09%, Rest of Prince Edward Island: +/- 4.63%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.