Editors’ Panel :

Nahid Hasan
Senior Officer, Bangladesh Krishi Bank
Zubaeerul Islam
Accounting Information System, Dhaka University
Sarah Alif Mahi
Management, Chittagong University
Md.Sohel Miajee
Management, Jagannath University
Shariful Islam
Marketing, Dhaka University
Ferdousi Tanni
Shahjalal University of Science & Technology
1
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 LIST OF CONTENTS :
Serial Page
Number
Topic Number
01 Remittance Downfall : The Reasons Behind 03
02 Road Accidents : Causes and Remedies 06
03 Marching Towards Becoming a Middle-income Country 09
04 Militancy problem in Bangladesh 11
05 India-Bangladesh Relationship : The Vibrant One 13
06 BREXIT and its impact on Global Economy (Especially 16
Bangladesh)
07 Teesta River Treaty : A crying need for Bangladesh 19
08 Progression of Jute sector in Bangladesh 21
09 Cyber Crime in Financial Sector 23
10 Good Governance in Banking Sector 26

2
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 1. Remittance Downfall : The Reasons Behind
Foreign remittance is one of the most contributing sectors that play a great role on the socio-
economic infrastructure of Bangladesh. The overseas employers and workers remittances
contribute significantly to the economic development of the country through reduction of
unemployment and augmenting foreign exchange reserves and income.

On an average there was a twenty per cent yearly increase in remittance from wage earners until
recent years. Such foreign remittance from Bangladeshi expatriates, of late, is falling ominously!

During the last July-February period

Fiscal Year Remittance
remittance from wage earners has
(In Billion, US$)
plummeted by almost 18 per cent from
1993-94 1.09 that of the corresponding period of the
1997-98 1.53 previous fiscal year. When remittance
2002-03 3.06 was about US$ 14.93 billion in 2015-
2007-08 7.91 2016, meaning US$ 1.25 billion every
2008-09 9.68 month, remittance in the month of
2009-10 10.98 February, 2017 was only US$ 936.2
2010-11 11.65 million, the lowest monthly incoming
2011-12 12.84 remittance in the last five years. It is an
2012-13 14.46 issue of great concern. The future would
2014-15 15.31 be bleaker if immediate and aggressive
2015-16 16.03 measures are not taken to stop the slide
Source: Bangladesh Bank and maintain its healthy growth.

Migrant workers sent $9.19 billion home to Bangladesh in July’16-March’17, down 8.41% from
the same time a year ago.

3
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 Remittance Inlow
(July'2016 - March'2017)

1183.61
1056.64 1077.44
1005.51 1010.99 1009.44
951.37 958.73 936.2

JULY' 16 AUGUST' 16 SEP' 16 OCT' 16 NOV' 16 DEC' 16 JAN' 17 FEB' 17 MARCH' 17

Amount (In Million, US$)

Source : Bangladesh Bank, World Bank

There are 05 factors that can potentially account for the decline in remittances:

1. The stock of Bangladeshi migrants abroad :

The standard refrain appears to be that the flow of remittance has declined because the
stock of Bangladeshi migrants abroad is not growing like it used to. This is because of two
reasons.
A. Bangladesh is failing to send more workers abroad to traditional markets and exploring
new markets.
B. The number of migrant workers returning to Bangladesh has also increased because
the government could not resolve problems related to the legal status of Bangladeshi
migrant labors in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait through diplomatic
channels.

2. Decline in earnings per migrant worker: There may have been a decline in their capacity
to remit because of decline in earnings per migrant worker or decline in the propensity to
save or decline in the propensity to remit out of their saving or a combination of all these

4
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 factors.

3. Decrease in the average propensity to save: With increased unemployment and/or lower
wages, the propensity to save may have decreased because of ratchet effects on
consumption. Conventionally, if income falls, then consumption should fall
proportionally, but this does not necessarily happen because once consumption habits
are acquired, it is hard to get rid of them.

4. Decline in the average propensity to remit money home out of those savings: The
propensity to remit may also have declined because of the appreciation of taka against
US dollar and increase in transaction costs due to incessant political turmoil.

5. Fall of global oil price: Due to fall in global oil price some may blame economic slumps in
the Arab oil-producing countries, from where the bulk of our remittances emanates, as
the reason for the downtrend of remittance inflow.

6. Increase in transaction by Hundi: Authorities should enforce laws against money

laundering and launch massive awareness campaigns through mass media against
unofficial remittance of money through "Hundi", which can lead to exploitation, fraud,
and security risks. But strict laws or sugar-coated words alone cannot motivate the
remitters and kill the centuries-old "Hundi" business. Real incentives must be offered to
the genuine remitters.

5
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 2. Road Accidents : Causes and Remedies

“Highways have become a night mare and a trap of death”

- Headlines from The Daily Star

Life is more valuable than Time; An accident, tears of a Lifetime – such quotations are quite
familiar to us and can often be found written on the body of vehicles running over the roads. But
the reality is different. Rushing crowds on the roads give us a feeling that we only realize the
value of time whenever we are on roads! The result is – a fatal accident causing loss of a lifetime.
On the opposite side of the coin, the perfunctory attitude of the drivers while driving also
instigating the issue more. Organizations working to ensure road safety are highlighting polemics
in time to time to refute the statements of concerned departments asserting that sufficient
measures have been taken to reduce the tolls.

Present scenario of road accident in Bangladesh:

According to a statistics, every year road accidents kill nearly 10,000 people in our country
causing 2% loss of our GDP. According to WHO, 50 people are killed in road accidents on average
daily. In 2017, early 58 days road accidents have caused the death 500 lives. (Source: The daily
star). According to Research Institute ARI of BUET, on average 12000 people are killed and 35000
injured in road accidents in a year.

Year Number of Accidents Death Injury

2009 3381 2958 2686
2010 2827 2646 1803
2011 2667 2546 1641
2012 2636 2538 2134
2013 2029 1957 1396
2014 2027 2067 1535
2015 2394 2376 1958
2016(Up to July) 1489 1422 1289

Source: Bangladesh Police; BRTA: http://www.brta.gov.bd/newsite/en/statistics-of-accident-casualties/

Above is a statistic of thousands of families going through a continuous nightmare! Yes, statistics
shows us the myriad of tolls but the stories of the families of suffered remains untold. Hardly
anyone might have forgotten the death of 44 school boys in a bus accident in July, 2011 in

6
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Chittagong. The death of 44 new hopes of Bangladesh. Only a month after that accident, 2 jewels
of Bangladesh, filmmaker Tareq Masud and journalist Mishuk Munier, died in another road
accident. Both of the accidents caused because of the recklessness of the drivers. This shouldn’t
be claimed as accident, rather a murder. On February, 2017, the court delivered a historic verdict
of life imprisonment of the driver accused for the accident of Tareq Masud and Misuk Munier.

The Causes of road accidents:

“Most of the road accidents happens due to overtaking collision with each other by losing control,
even if while crossing the road” – Film Actor, Elias Kanchan, The Daily Jugantor, 23 October’ 2015.

The causes of road accidents are manifolds.

Among them the most noticeable are the stated below:
I. Reckless driving
II. Over-speeding
III. Unskilled and less skilled drivers
IV. Rundown and unfit vehicles
V. Unauthorized road side bazar and establishments
VI. Absence of speed limit monitoring authority
VII. Driving license less drivers
VIII. Driving after taking drugs
IX. Carelessness of Pedestrians
More specifically,

 Most of the drivers of public transports belong to less-educated plebian group. Moreover,
they are recalcitrant to the rules and regulations. They are reluctant to properly know and
follow driving rules. Most often, drivers engage in races with each other on busy roads.
All these things lead to accident. Simultaneously, a large number of public transports in
cities like Dhaka and Chittagong are running without proper fitness clearance. These
vehicles are nothing better than death traps. But due to scarcity of alternative options,
city people are left it no other choice but travelling on those unfit vehicles.
 Secondly, we, the mass people are extremely reluctant to use foot-over bridges to cross
roads or use Zebra-crossings. Again, there is not sufficient over bridges or crossings in
every road. As a result, people cross over the roads and often meet with unfortunate
accidents.
 Lastly, our roads are not properly designed to stay apart from residential areas, especially
schools, colleges and other educational institutions. This is causing unfortunate accidents
taking lives or causing injuries to children. Again, the roads aren’t properly maintained.
This situation becomes worse in rainy season. Due to lack of drainage system, roads go
under water. Moreover, the roads are not built properly to endure longer time. The result
is broken roads with pits here and there.

7
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Impact of road accidents:
It is actually tough to measure the loss off road accidents. In most of the times, the damage have
no limits to describe. The losses are mainly two categories:
1. Economic loss
2. Social and family loss
According to a report revealed by BUET, road accidents cause a damage of over Tk. 7000 crore.
Moreover, many families lose their only earning member in many cases.

Remedial Measures:
News of deaths on accident in newspapers have become a common phenomenon with our
morning tea. May be that is the reason for our reluctance to the remedial measures for this
burning issue. Whenever any serious accident occurs we see some activists are protesting here
and there for attention of the concerned department and remedies. But such sporadic protests
won’t bring any solution. We need to plan something viable. The concerned departments and
officials should do brainstorming to design an escape from this problem. Roads need to be well
designed and maintenance work should be undertaken on regular intervals, not just before the
visits of VIPs.

The major remedial measures are:

 The rogue drivers should be brought to books. License should be given to only those who
own sound traffic knowledge and can prove their driving skills. We have no proper law
regarding road accidents. The existing fines are so infinitesimal that the drivers don’t even
care about that. It should be reformed and the penalty should be such that actually makes
everyone cautious.
 There is a system of penalty by law for crossing over the roads without following rules.
But this law is not in action. This should be made stringent. Besides, sufficient number of
foot-over bridges and zebra-crossings should be there.
 Traffic police are the protector of traffic rules on roads. They are actually the guardian of
the public safety on roads. This department should perform their duties more diligently.

We will not get any result by depending on serendipity. Nothing changes automatically. People
of every walks of life should come forward to uproot this problem. Only our consciousness can
do a lot to resolve this issue. We must keep in mind that it is our duty to ensure the safety of our
lives before it’s too late.

8
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 3. Marching Towards Becoming a Middle-income Country

Bangladesh’s Economic growth is considered as a success story throughout the globe. The
Economist, the weekly magazine format newspaper, stated Bangladesh to become a model of
what can be done. The journey started from being a Low-income level country since the
emergence of the new nation dated back to approximately four decades. Bangladesh successfully
achieved the Lower middle income country status in 2015.

World Bank classifies the countries into four income levels based on Per capita GNI calculated
using the World Bank Atlas Method. The levels are-
1. Low income country having GNI of $1025 or lower,
2. Lower middle-income country having GNI between $1026 and $4035,
3. Upper middle-income country with GNI between $4036 and $12475 and
4. High income country having GNI per capita of $12476 and more.

Currently amongst the SAARC countries, India, Pakistan, Bhutan and Sri-Lanka are also hailing
from the group of total 52 lower-middle income countries and Maldives is the only South Asian
and SAARC member country belonging to the upper-middle income group.

Becoming a lower-middle income country is certainly something to cheer about. Simultaneously

it fuels us with the firm belief that we will soon excel to the higher status. Although Bangladesh
has primarily enlisted itself into the middle-income group but to be efficiently categorized as a
middle-income group it need to consistently maintain the status for a period of six years. For
Bangladesh, the target is set to 2021, the 50th anniversary of the independence of the nation.

For maintaining a consistency Bangladesh needs something more than a “usual Business” to be
precise. Although the measure is based on GNI only, but to preserve the threshold the current
GDP growth rate needs to be accelerated to 7.5 to 8 percent while sustaining remittance growth
at 8 plus percent. To keep up the pace, emphasis should be given on three factors: increased
investment, faster human-capital accumulation and enhanced productivity growth.

Infrastructure, business environment, land and skills work as constraint to investment.

Infrastructure has a multiplier effect on productivity. Better infrastructure ensures productivity
which in turn makes exports competitive and attracts FDI, thus leading to further acceleration in
productivity. Expanded provision of infrastructure has to come with easing difficulties in doing
Business, increasing access to land and meeting shortage of skills.

9
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Despite daunting challenges Bangladesh has shown remarkable progress in mass Education
which is a contributing factor to turn population into human capital. To energize the national
income and productivity, skilled workforce is a must.

For a consistent economic performance growth in productivity works as a prerequisite. The

enhanced productivity will supply the required flow of resources to the whole economy which in
turn will ease the way to generate higher national income.

Moreover, only striving to get enlisted as a middle-income country will be of no use if we cannot
actually eradicate the dispersion of income. Income inequality is still high underpinned by
discriminatory access to economic opportunities. Higher inclusivity ensures economic
independence.

Becoming a middle-income country in 2021 is a major manifesto of the government of

Bangladesh. Achieving the target requires an all-out effort. Again, the whole success will depend
on the efficient management and use of resources. Esteem of achieving this prestigious status
should work as a motivating factor to the expedition towards the goal of becoming a middle-
income country on the golden jubilee of our independence.

Four factors to work on:

 Increased investment
 Faster human-capital accumulation
 Enhanced productivity growth
 Income inequality should be checked

10
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 4. Militancy problem in Bangladesh
The security environment of Bangladesh is and was always peaceful in comparison to many other
countries of this region. In respect to militant activities the country was in very low profile threat.
If we consider population density and diversity of the population the incidents are very normal
and negligible. Recently the nature of threats and vulnerabilities posed by militancy in
Bangladesh has become a daunting problem to national security.

Militant refers to a group radicalized people involved in combat and aggression, especially in
support of a cause. The growing radicalization and militancy in Bangladesh not just threatens the
country’s current secular-democratic dispensation and development endeavors, but also it has
serious implications for the region’s peace and security. Although the origin and financing source
of the militant outfits active within the territory is pretty much ambiguous, their existence cannot
be denied anymore.

In last few years terrorist activities in this country have got new dimension. Initially those were
in very primitive type, but gradually things are becoming nebulous and difficult to neutralize.
Incident of 17th August 2005 was an alarm to us to get serious about the issue and it made us to
realize that we should strive to stop this vicious cycle. Law enforcing agencies and intelligence
units are doing their best to cope up with the growing threats. But still the daunt is haunting the
nation.

Juveniles brandishing arms and wearing headscarf like Palestinian guerillas have become the
reason of our apprehension. Sometimes in the name of IS, sometimes as Neo-JMB or any other
fancy names, these attackers are sporadically slaughtering, killing, bombing civilians and law
enforcing agency members, most often in the name of religion, creating terror and threatening
the national security. Few months back we have witnessed the Gulshan café attack on 1 st July
2016 where 22 were killed including foreigners, in one of the most restricted diplomatic
residential zone in Dhaka. The incident deviated our image in global community and western
countries pointed their fingers towards us to be on terrorist threat. Only five days later, on 6 th of
July an attack was intercepted by the security forces on Eid-congregational prayer on Sholakiya,
the largest Eid prayer of the country.

Till date Bangladesh has gained remarkable success in tracing down and neutralizing militants.
Few recent success are worth to mention- the tracing down of 9 militants on Kallyanpur, Dhaka
on 26th July 2016, neutralizing militant trainer and retired army official Zahidul Islam on 2 nd
September 2016 in Mirpur, encountering top leader of Neo-JMB Tanvir Quader on 10th
September 2016 in Azimpur, Dhaka, neutralizing of 9 militants on Gazipur on 8th October in a

11
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
joint operation of Police and RAB, success of Operation Ripple 24 on 24 th December, 2016 to
settle down militants, Operation Assault 16 on 16th March 2017 in a covert in Sitakund,
Chittagong, the dramatic success of Operation Twilight in Sylhet, Operation Hit-back in on 30th
March 2017 and Operation Maximus on 31st March 2017 both in Moulovibazar, Operation Strike
Out in Comilla on 29th March to 1st April 2017.

Despite the success stories we have reasons to worry. The number of recent operations and
traced down militants indicate the rise of the chaos. If we analyze the pattern, we will notice that
the militants are mostly aged between 18 to 30 years. A noticeable number belongs to affluent
family background and good educational background. This actually points out that we need to
concentrate more on our social pattern to protect the new generation from getting derailed.
Interpretation of religious terminologies deceivingly is the key weapon of radicalization. Proper
religious education to vanish the misconceptions can be a fruitful attempt.

Terrorism and militancy is a global problem. But the approach to the solution is local and precise.
We need to concentrate on the issue to ensure our inland security. Otherwise our independence
may get threatened in near future.

12
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 5. India-Bangladesh Relationship : The Vibrant One
Bangladesh and India are South-Asian neighbors. Despite some border disputes, generally the
relation between these two countries have been friendly since the Liberation war. The historic
land boundary agreement was signed on 6th June, 2015, which opened a new era in the relations.
Bangladesh and India are common members of SAARC, BIMSTEC, IORA, and the Commonwealth.
Bangladesh has a high commission in Delhi and Kolkata. India has also a high commission in Dhaka
with consulate in Chittagong. Historically and culturally the two nations have been considerably
close to each other.

Recent developments:
 In sept 2011, the two countries signed a major accord on border demarcation to end the
4decade old disputes over boundaries. This came to be known as “Tin Bigha corridor”
 In Oct 2011, armies of two countries participated in a 14days long joint military exercise
to increase synergy between two forces
 In 2012, Bangladesh allowed India’s oil and natural gas corporation to ferry heavy
machinery, turbines and cargo through Ashugonj for ‘’Palatana power plant’’ in southern
Tripura.
 From oct 2013, India started exporting 500mw of electricity a day to BD, over period of
35years. This contract eased the national electricity shortage.
 The two country’s prime minister also unveiled the plaque of 1320 MW coal fired Rampal
power plant, a joint venture between the two countries.
 In 2014, Indian external affairs minister Sushama Swaraj visited BD and concluded various
agreements to boost ties. The agreements include:
 Easing visa regime to provide 5year multiple entry visa
 Proposal of a special economic zone in BD
 Agreement to send back a fugitive murder accused from India Provide an additional
100MW power from Tripura
 Increase the frequency of Maitree Express and start buses between Dhaka-Guwahati and
Shilong.

Financial Cooperation:
 India has recently given several loans to BD. Grant of 750$ for developing BD
infrastructure in 2011 is noteworthy among them
 In 2014, India extended $1 billion soft loan for infrastructural development
 $1billion given to Padma Bridge plant
 Given grant of $10million for several small development
 MOU signed to aim at promoting cooperation between health and medical services.

13
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Movements of Prime ministers’ latest visit to India (April 7-10’2017)
Narendra Modi offered $5 billion in two separate lines of credit to Sheikh Hasina, including $500
million for defense procurement meant to wean Dhaka off Chinese military purchases.
Twenty-two agreements were signed in the area of defense, nuclear energy, cyber security and
media, though the two leaders witnessed the signing of only four pacts – on the judicial sector, a
$4.5 billion development assistance line of credit, on outer space and on passenger and cruise
services. In addition, India has offered a new $500 million line of credit specifically for defense
purchases.

Here is the full list of MoUs signed between India and Bangladesh on BD PM’s Latest visit:
 MoU on Defense Cooperation Framework.
 MoU between India’s Defense Services Staff College and Dhaka’s Defense Services
Command and Staff College for Enhancing Cooperation in the Field of Strategic and
operational studies.
 MoU between Dhaka’s National Defense College and India’s National Defense College for
enhancing cooperation in the field of national security, development and strategic
studies.
 MoU signed on cooperation in the peaceful uses of outer space.
 Agreement in peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
 Arrangement for the exchange of technical information and co-operation in the
Regulation of Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection.
 Inter-Agency agreement on cooperation regarding Nuclear Power Plant Projects in
Bangladesh.
 MoU in the field of Information Technology and Electronics.
 MoU on cooperation in the area of Cyber Security.
 MoU on establishing Border Haats across India and Bangladesh border.
 MoU on Bilateral Judicial Sector Cooperation.
 MoU on Training and Capacity Building Program for Bangladeshi Judicial Officers in India.
 MoU concerning cooperation on aids to navigation.
 MoU on Mutual Scientific Cooperation in the field of Earth Sciences for Research and
Development.
 MoU and Standard of Procedures (SoPs) on passenger and cruise services on the coastal
and protocol route.
 MoU on the development of Fairway from Sirajganj to Daikhowa and Ashuganj to Zakiganj
on Indo-Bangladesh Protocol Route.
 MoU on cooperation in the Field of Mass Media.
 Agreement on Audio-visual Co-production.
 MoU between India and Bangladesh for extending Defense Line of Control of USD 500
million.
 Agreement for the regulation of Motor Vehicle Passenger Traffic along the Khulna-Kolkata
route.
 MoU for Extending the 3rd Line of Credit (LoC) by India to Bangladesh.
 Financing Agreement for the Construction of 36 Community Clinics in Bangladesh.

14
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
However, some problems lie in Bangladesh-India Relations as well, they are pointed as below:

 Illegal Migration :
Illegal migration appears in the eastern and north-eastern parts of the country from
neighboringBangladesh, threat to India’s internal security, from Bangladesh is impac
tedon communal, political, social and economic tensions and conflicts in several areas
of the northeast of India. The most affected states are West Bengal, Assam, Megalaya,
Nagaland, Bihar, and Tripura, although migrants “have spread to far off states like
Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Delhi.” Although the exact figure is
not known, it is estimated that there are about 15-20 million Bangladeshis staying
illegally in India)
 Insurgency :
(National Liberation of Tripura (NLFT), Liberation Front of Assam(ULFA) and National
Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFM) are major insurgent groups in Northeast
India)
 Border Disputes (BSF, forcible border land occupation)
 Water Disputes (Teesta water)
 Over dependence of Bangladesh on India (Export, Satellite channels, power energy
etc.)

15
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 6. BREXIT and its impact on Global Economy (Especially Bangladesh)

BREXIT is the acronym used in place of “British Exit” to refer Britain exiting from European Union,
the largest economic bloc of the world. A referendum was held on 23 rd June, 2016 to decide
whether the UK should remain in European Union or not. Leave won by 51.9% to 48.1%. With
more than 30million people voting, the referendum turn put was 71.8%. Although the UK hasn’t
yet left EU, but the process is on-going and will possibly be finished by 29th March, 2019.

Brexit is predicted to have outrageous implications all over the world especially for the
developing countries like Bangladesh. David Cameron, the abdicated Prime Minister of UK, along
with many senior figures who wanted to stay in EU, predicted an immediate economic crisis after
the referendum result along with big rise in unemployment and the need for an emergency
budget to bring in the large cuts in spending. The pound did slump the day after the referendum
- and remains around 15% lower against the dollar and 10% down against the euro - but the
predictions of immediate doom have not proved accurate with the UK economy estimated to
have grown 1.8% in 2016, second only to Germany's 1.9% among the world's G7 leading
industrialized nations. Inflation has risen - to 2.3% in February - its highest rate for three and a
half years, but unemployment has continued to fall, to stand at an 11-year low of 4.8%. Annual
house price increases have fallen from 9.4% in June but were still at an inflation-busting 7.4% in
December, according to official figures. So, it’s obvious to claim that till now Brexit had no severe
impact on UK’s economy and the same is true to the economy of Bangladesh. But the actual
impact will be after March, 2019 when UK will finally be out of the league.

If the current low trend of Pound prevails in future, this may result in a threat to the economy of
Bangladesh. UK is the third largest export destination of Bangladesh. Due to the devaluation
pound, imported goods for UK will be more expensive and the consequence will be a decline in
demand. As a result, export oriented sectors of Bangladesh may face a severe drop in aggregate
demand. But, the devalued pound can also be beneficial for us. Due to the devaluation, imports
from UK will come to Bangladesh as a cheaper option. This can give us a competitive advantage
during replenishing raw materials and other essentials.

Our economy’s a significant portion is remittance based. A depressed currency will result in a
decline in remittance sent from expatriates living in UK. Again, till the negotiation process, the
immigration status will be the same as now and before. But, after the final separation, what is
going to happen in this issue is still uncertain. So, the future is dependent on the UK’s reformed
immigrant policy.

16
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Declining value of Pound may cause inflation in UK’s economy. The Bank of England, the central
bank of UK, is liable to delineate the inflation rate at around 2% in a year. To tackle the situation,
it may raise the interest rate on loan to make Pound more attractive. Unfortunately, this initiative
will also increase the cost of borrowings. As a borrower, this may become a reason of our
headache.

Due to the declining Pound value, business and investors may mobilize their investments out of
UK economy. This may result in a recession in UK economy which in turn will have a fatal impact
on the related economies like Bangladesh. IMF (International Monetary Fund) expects that
international trade and investment will shrink in response to the political uncertainty of an exit,
especially one that may throw Britain into a sharp recession.

A large number of Bangladeshi students apply for higher studies in institutions in UK. UK will
surely tighten their immigrant policy. The British Home Office has reportedly estimated that one
in five foreign students overstays their visa and continues to live in Britain long after their course
has finished. As a matter of fact, it’s pretty obvious that the admission policy is going to be
tougher.

According to Capital Economics, a London-based research firm, Brexit would cause at the most a
GDP drop of 0.2 per cent across Asia. This is a matter of concern for us. To keep our economy
vibrant, the government should scheme a plan to face the upcoming contingencies resulted in by
Brexit. In fact, consequences of Brexit will generally depend on UK's reactions. Bangladesh needs
to proceed carefully. Brexit clearly indicates that UK is less interested in any economic bloc.
Rather, it is giving more emphasis on bilateral relationship. For this, the government ought to
start lobbying and need to renegotiate with UK to retain the duty-free access which is being
enjoyed under the provision of EU since 1976. Accordingly, the government should also try
through the diplomatic channel so that the trading facility now being enjoyed in the UK through
EU to keep pace with the global competitors is maintained. The well-known domino effect states
that things are interdependent. Great Britain has always been a proven friend to us for long. So,
its depressed economy can affect us too and in order to stimulate its economy, the UK may look
for low-cost countries like ours to invest in.

17
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
TPP impact:
The Economic and Geopolitical Impact of the Transpacific Trade Agreement Introduction
Winners, losers and many still unanswered questions - the heated public debate goes on - but
there can be no denying that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) has now moved a big step closer
to becoming a reality. An agreement has been reached that will likely be ratified and thus usher
in what would be the largest regional trade pact in history. The TPP would include 12 countries
that together have an annual GDP of almost $28 trillion, accounting for about 40% of the world's
GDP and one-third of its trade. (Source: The New York Times, 2015)

The most significant economic and geopolitical consequences of this potential deal are as follows:
 It represents one of the last opportunities for the United States (and to a lesser extent
Japan) to set the standards for a large percentage of the world’s commerce unimpeded
by rising powers such as China.
 Notwithstanding certain political rhetoric, given Canada’s small internal market, it has
little choice but to approve this agreement in order to ensure it is on a level playing field
with other countries for access to critical global export markets.
 The challenges facing Canada’s auto and manufacturing sectors predate the TPP
negotiations, and will likely intensify going forward.
 Low labor costs and openness to foreign direct investment (FDI) place Vietnam and
Malaysia among the countries best positioned to benefit economically from the TPP.
 Announcing the deal is just the first step. Each country needs to ratify the agreement
before it comes into force. But it is crucial to note that the fate of the October 8, 2015
Angelo Katsoras, Senior Associate - (514) 879-6458 Pierre Fournier, Geopolitical Analyst -
(514) 879-2423 TPP rests largely with the U.S. Congress. If the deal is passed in the United
States, the approval phase will be a foregone conclusion in most other countries. If it fails
to pass the Congress, then it most likely will fall apart.

Highlights:

 Brexit= British Exit,

 Referendum on 23re June, 2016. The process started 29th March 2017 and will end on
29th March 2019.
 After Brexit referendum, Pound remains around 15% lower against the dollar and 10%
down against the euro
 UK is the third largest Export destination of Bangladeshi exports.
 The Bank of England is bound to keep annual inflation rate around 2%
 Brexit may result in 0.2% fall in GDP of Asian countries

18
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 7. Teesta River Treaty : A crying need for Bangladesh
India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers between them. Despite setting up a Joint River
Commission for water management as early as 1972, tensions between the countries on how to
share resources recently came to a head in a dispute over the Teesta River. At stake are the lives
of countless people from West Bengal and Bangladesh who depend upon the river for survival.

To date, only one comprehensive river pact has been signed by India and Bangladesh – a 1996
bilateral treaty that established a 30-year water-sharing arrangement between the two
countries. This was set to change in September 2011 when India’s Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan
Singh, was due to sign a pact with his Bangladeshi counterpart regarding access and use of the
Teesta River.

The Teesta – which has its source in Sikkim – flows through the northern part of West Bengal in
India before entering Bangladesh, where after coursing through about 45km of irrigable land,
merges with the Brahmaputra River (or Jamuna when it enters Bangladesh). In 1983, an ad-hoc
water sharing agreement was reached between India and Bangladesh, whereby both countries
were allocated 39% and 36% of the water flow respectively. The new bilateral treaty expands
upon this agreement by proposing an equal allocation of the Teesta River.

However, the deal fell through when the then newly elected Chief Minister of West Bengal, Ms.
Mamata Banerjee, refused to approve the treaty, fearing that the loss of higher volume of water
to the lower riparian would cause problems in the northern region of state, especially during
drier months.

Given that water is a state issue in India, and that Banerjee’s political party, the All India
Trinamool Congress, is a key coalition partner of the ruling central government, the deal could
not go through without her approval. While a large section of the Bangladeshi populace as well
as the Indian media vilified her rigid stance, her opposition to the terms of the treaty was not
without its share of support.

In May 2012, during a visit to India, the Bangladesh Foreign Minister, Ms. Dipu Moni, warned
that bilateral relations would be complicated if India fails to deliver on the Teesta water-sharing
agreement.

Despite this pressure tactic, the treaty remains a slow burner as India continues its efforts
of domestic political consensus building. However, the Indian Minister for External Affairs, S.M.
Krishna tried to diffuse tensions and assured Bangladesh that India remains committed to an
early solution on the issue of sharing Teesta waters.

19
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
How Teesta impacts on Bangladesh:

1. The Teesta originates in the Indian state of Sikkim and its total length is 414 km, out of
which 121 km run in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, the river mainly affects the five northern
districts of Rangpur Division: Gaibandha, Kurigram, Lalmonirhat, Nilphamari and Rangpur.

2. A report of The Asia Foundation in 2013, its flood plain covers about 14% of the total
cropped area of Bangladesh and provides direct livelihood opportunities to approximately
7.3% of its population.so, It was the most demanded agreement for prime minister sheik
Hasina to save our northern part of Bangladesh where in the summer season people
suffer from water for irrigation, for drinking water.

3. However, the two countries share 54 rivers and Teesta is the fourth largest river of sharing
water between two countries. Northern part of Bangladesh is fully depends on Teesta
river including human life, livelihood, irrigation, fisheries and household.

Despite the inexplicable importance of Teesta agreement, Prime Minister Sheik Hasina
and Narendra Modi did not reach the final stage because

I. In 2015, during Modi’s visit to Dhaka to exchange the ratified papers of the Land
Boundary Agreement between India and Bangladesh, Banerjee joined him. But she
maintained a silence over the issue of sharing Teesta waters.

II. Secondly Article 253 of the Indian constitution gives power to the Union government
to enter into any transboundary river water-related treaty with a riparian state, the
Centre cannot do it arbitrarily without taking into consideration the social, political
and economic impact of such a treaty in the catchment area.

III. One of the reasons for Banerjee not accepting the new deal on the Teesta is confusion
over the agreed percentage of water to be shared between India and Bangladesh The
deal says that Bangladesh will receive 48%of the waters .She has said that releasing
so much water to Bangladesh would affect irrigation systems in five districts of the
North Bengal – Coochbehar, Jalpaiguri, South and North Dinajpur, and Darjeeling –
which constitute some of the poorest blocks in her state.

20
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 8. Progression of Jute sector in Bangladesh
Jute is a vital sector from economical, agricultural, industrial, and commercial point of view in
Bangladesh. Once upon a time jute was called the ‘Golden Fiber’ of Bangladesh. But due to
continuous loss every year, the present and future prosperity and growth of this industry is in a
vulnerable condition. There are different causes behind this situation. This sector has a good
potential to earn a lot of foreign currencies for Bangladesh. Because at present, people are very
cautious about environment and jute is an environment friendly product. For this a good number
of researches are needed in this area. From this research, the policy maker will get some idea
about how to improve this sector. The aim of this paper is to highlight the present scenario of
jute industry in Bangladesh and give some recommendations to improve this sector.
Bangladeshi jute known as ‘golden fiber’ because of the quality of jute it produced. For centuries,
Bangladeshi Jute dominate the world market for its higher quality fibers. JUTE was the single
most important export item of Bangladesh till the end of 1980s. Still jute is one of the largest
export oriented industries in Bangladesh and its contribution to the national economy is
significant. According to the Bangladesh Jute Mills Corporation, major destinations of
Bangladesh’s jute goods export are Middle East, African Countries, European countries, South
East Asia, Australia and USA Jute - A crop which is cultivated mainly in the Bengal Delta, most of
which is occupied by Bangladesh. Jute fibers are extracted from plants through various stages
such as retting, stripping, washing and drying. The color of jute varies from light tan to brown and
it can be easily bleached or dyed.

Bangladesh produces the finest quality natural jute fiber. As such Bangladeshi jute product
manufacturer or exporter has an extra advantage in manufacturing top grade jute products by
using best quality natural fibers. As the demand for natural fiber blends increases, the demand
for jute and other natural fibers that can be blended with cotton is expected to increase. Jute’s
profile in the textile industry has expanded beyond traditional applications and is being used in
various higher value textiles for furnishings as well as in composites particularly as a wood fiber.
Although currently diversified jute products account for a small percentage of total consumption
this segment could expand rapidly with further investment in resources and expertise.
The major manufactured products from jute are: Yarn and twine, jute sacking, hessian, carpet
backing cloth and as well as for other textile blends. Growing international interest for diversified
and lifestyle jute products have prompted Bangladeshi jute manufacturers and exporters to
develop value-added jute products like jute gunny bag or sack bags, jute yarn and twine,
handicrafts, shopping bags, beach bags, sports and travel bags, wine bags and other jute textiles.
. Bangladeshi jute are traditionally being used in both packaging of food grade materials and
industrial packaging. It is also used for various kind of shopping bags, promotional bags and geo-
textiles.

Jute is one of the most valuable natural resources of Bangladesh and is truly ruled the world
market. Bangladeshi Jute bags are available in neutral and earthy colors like olive green and
different shades of white. These quality jute bags made their way into almost every nature lovers
home.

21
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
During the month under review local market for soft district areas, especially for low quality of
fibers, remained stable, but the market for Hard District and North Bengal areas showed an
upward trend. The leading jute yarn and twine spinning mills, Bangladesh public sector jute mills
(BJMC) as well as private composite jute mills were in the market as buyers. Besides, regular
demand continued from Pakistan and from India for high quality jute. Buyers from both countries
were actively in the market and buying according to their requirements. There was demand too
from the other raw jute importing countries like China, Nepal, Vietnam, Russia, UK and others,
but total volume of business was rather modest. Due to increase in demand for high quality jute,
both from local buyers as well as foreign buyers, the local fiber prices for these fibers increased
too. Export prices have also increased in sympathy by about USD 1500 per ton. On the other
hand, export prices for low quality jute, such as SMR, BTE BS and jute cuttings BWCB and BTCB
tended to become softer.

Raw jute exports during the period of July 2016 up to September 2016 were 214.240 bales against
266.793 bales during the same period under review in 2015. So as to reduce the use of
environmentally harmful plastic bags and to increase the use of environment friendly fibers as
well as to protect the interest of the farmers, Government is going to make it soon mandatory to
packaging in jute bags of nine more agricultural products, such as Chili, Turmeric, Onion, Ginger,
Garlic, Pulse, Coriander, Potato and rice bran. Earlier Bangladesh Government had made the use
of jute bags for packaging of six commodities - Paddy, Rice, Wheat, Maize, Fertilizer and Sugar -
compulsory.

It was reported that extending the number of agricultural products for compulsory packaging in
jute bags would result in additional requirements to the tune of 500 million jute bags. It has
already earlier been stated that due to enforcement of mandatory packaging law the demand for
raw jute has increased in domestic level. According to the data from the Export Promotion Bureau
(EPB) and Bangladesh Jute Spinners Association (BJSA) jute yarn and twine spinning mills process
two thirds of raw jute production mainly for export sales. Jute yarn and twine account for 65
percent of the sectors annual exports receipts of over $850 million.

Jute industry is beset with certain very serious problems, it is depend on heavy subsidies from
the Government, there is growing feeling in the mind of the people that this industry which fed
with locally produced indigenous raw materials should be able to stand on its own legs by
effective and efficient husbanding of human and material resources. The failures of JSAC program
tell us that privatization cannot be solution of situation. What we need to re-establish our jute
industry is sincere effort from the side of employee as well as from the side of Government. This
is, of course, beyond doubt that the first problem to be tackled is to formulate and affective and
well-balanced jute policy. Because if we want to exercise controls over the industry of bring out
operational efficiency we must have a workable jute policy. Above all sincerity, honesty, and
integrity of the employee are the best panacea of the lot of management ills.

22
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 9. Cyber Crime in Financial Sector
Cyber and technology related crime is gradually increasing in Bangladesh. The advancement of
e-banking technology has made banking transactions very convenient. But the misuse of
information technology has brought undesirable consequences in the form of diverse
cybercrimes. Cyber-crime, which includes credit card fraud, spamming, e-money laundering,
ATM fraud, Phishing, Identity theft, Denial of Service in the banking sector.

According to Douglas and Loader, Cyber-crime can be defined as computer facilitated activities
accompanied through global electric networks either illegally or illicitly by definite entities. In the
banking sector, Illegal money transfer and removal from one to another account are identified
as banking fraud according to Wall. ATM frauds, E-money Laundering and Credit Card Frauds are
the most witnessed cybercrimes in the banking sector. In general, all the frauds are executed
with the goal of accessing user's bank account, stealing funds and transferring it to some other
bank account. In some cases the cyber criminals uses the banking identifications i.e. passwords,
e-PIN, certificates, etc. to access client's accounts; whereas in other cases they may want to steal
and transfer money the funds into another accounts illegally.

Cyber-crime scenario in banking sector of Bangladesh:

In the last few years, the baking sector was the victim of several security breaches:
• On January 06, 2013, Islami Bank Bangladesh site was hacked by Human Mind Cracker.
• In 2015, bank accounts of a private bank were hacked and money was withdrawn from them.
• On December 2, 2015, Hackers breached the network security of Sonali Bank and took control
of its website for a couple of hours. The programmer distinguished himself as a 'Muslim Hacker.
• In February, 2016, skimming attacks in six ATM booths of three commercial banks.
• And the largest e-money laundering in the history of banking occurred in February 2016,
when hackers stole $101 million from the Bangladesh bank's account with the Federal Reserve
Bank of New York.

23
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
Ensuring Cyber Security Governance:
This incidents persuaded the Bangladesh Bank recommending to all Banks and financial
institutions to ensure cyber-security governance i.e.
• Taking measures for ascertaining existing technical gap assessment and vulnerability through
a comprehensive cyber security risk study.
• Treating cyber security as a collective responsibility by all financial institutions.
• Installing Anti-skimming devices to the ATM booths.
• Use of EMV (Euro pay, MasterCard & Visa) Standard card to avoid skimming
Such measures were recommended by the Bangladesh Bank because such cyber-attacks were
seen as being capable of causing financial loss and creating a reputational risk. They should also
emphasize on:
• Provide IT related training for skill development.
• Monitoring over the IT related issues.
• Testing hazard incident.
• Mandatory adoption of IT related precaution to avoid such incidents.
• Creating customer awareness.

24
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
The present conceptual framework has provided a brief overview of ongoing efforts to prevent
and control technology and computer related crime, highlighting general trends and
development within and outside the banking sector of Bangladesh. The banking industry is
constantly experiencing cyber-crimes like ATM fraud, E-money laundering, Credit card fraud,
Phishing etc. Since there was no noteworthy incidents of cyber-crime took place in the banking
sector of Bangladesh before 2016, there was no urge for such protective measures against those
crimes.

But now it is high time for the banks to concentrate on cyber risk management and mitigation.
So, new technologies and services must be adopted to cope with the situation as well as
competition and security governance must be complied with. Technological and legal
advancement in the area of banking sector is necessary to overcome the cyber-threats in banking
industry. Bangladesh Bank should take necessary steps discussed above to create awareness
among the banks and their clients as well as making the application of the laws more rigorous to
check crime. As the regulatory authority of the banking sector, Bangladesh Bank should also
ensure mandatory compliance of cyber risk management and cyber security governance for the
operating banks. There is also a need to bring changes in the Information Technology (ICT) Act to
make it more effective to combat cyber-crime.

25
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
 10. Good Governance in Banking Sector
-Mr. Md. Shohel Miajee

Banking sector is the nucleus of any financial system of any economy. Banking must be robust,
resilient and sound for efficient intermediation of the financial resources. Banking sector is
considered as one of the most significant players in strengthening the soundness of any economy.
There are at present 64 banks and 4 crore people are under bank account. Good governance in
banking sector is pre-requisite as it is necessary to exercise power in the management of the
country’s most important economic resources for development.

Lack of good governance in the Bangladeshi banking Sector:

Banking sector is a tool for development. But, it is a sheer regret that our banking industry is far
away from practicing good governance. Nevertheless, in recent times, this sector is plagued with
some enormous problems. This has overall, impacted the soundness of the the banking system
in the country and resulted in huge loss at large.

Non-performing loan: A Burden and a curse.

This sort pf loan is taken by entrepreneurs or borrowers which are not performing in
maintenance of breaching the repayment schedule. Here is the list of these burden over the
years:

Year Non-Performing Loans Gross NPL Ratio

(Billions)
June’ 15 525.20 9.70%
Sep’ 15 547.10 9.90%
Dec’ 15 513.70 8.79%
Mar’ 15 594.1 9.92%
June’ 15 633.65 10.06%
Source: Bangladesh bank

26
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN
The primary reasons of this lack of governance are:
1. Bad debt
2. Inefficient management
3. Corruption
4. Lack of accountability
5. Rapid changes in the policy
6. Weak IT infrastructure
7. Beau acratic complicacies especially in state owned banks.
8. Lack of transparency

Corrective measures in Bangladeshi perspective:

Upon considering the significance of the banking sector, no-late immediate steps must be
adopted to ensure good governance and bring back the soundness of the economy. Following
remedial measures can be taken in this regard:
a. To provide incentives to the NPL.
b. Creating atmosphere of accountability
c. Practicing transparency in decision making.
d. Proper monitoring of the disbursed loans
e. Firm supervision from Bangladesh Bank
f. Ensuring integrity in policy making

Banks keep the wheels of the economy making and provide mechanism for overall economic
development. In order to increase efficiency, governance is the must requisite. Therefore,
concerned authority should take this concern seriously and ensure good governance in banking
sector.

27
FOCUS WRITING VAULT BY MD. ARIFUR RAHMAN