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Fortunately, Pakistan has a high renewable energy potential, which has been elaborated
in many studies on Pakistan. A recent report published by USAID attests to Pakistan’s
energy potential, stating that it can potentially produce 100,000 MW from solar energy
alone. Despite the potential, Pakistan remains “powerless” when it comes to adequately
powering lights for its homes, machinery for its factories, and stoves for its kitchens.
Data from many sources, including the Ministry of Water & Power and Pakistan
Economic Surveys, over the past five years show that Pakistan has been facing an
average shortfall of between 4,000-5,000 MW.
This acute energy crisis is a result of flawed energy policies pursued for decades, the
high cost of generation, and aging and inadequate transmission, among other causes. In
addition to transmission losses and distribution thefts, an entrenched bureaucratic
culture marked by poor organization, planning, and project implementation among
Pakistan’s power operating companies only compounds the problem.
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Power shortages are also rooted in Pakistan’s irrational and increasingly unaffordable
energy mix: 64 percent thermal, 30 hydropower, and 6 percent nuclear. A high reliance
on thermal power plants (which in turn are run by natural gas, oil, or coal) and
hydropower seldom assure a continuous flow of power. Heavy dependence on oil-based
energy makes power high-priced. The prevailing energy crisis is costly to the economy in
the form of huge subsidies and high circular debts. Politicians and policymakers in
Pakistan have made little real attempt to diversify the nation’s energy supplies and to
shift dependence form expensive and imported oil toward potentially cheaper and
cleaner resources available in the country (Pakistan’s dependence on oil imports is 24
percent, compared to India’s 18 percent and Bangladesh’s 21 percent). Pakistan’s
stubborn reliance on fossil fuels continued even after the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979.
The misguided energy mix also exacerbates the nation’s already serious environmental
problems, which manifests itself in poor air quality and unsafe drinking water. Pakistan
ranked a dismal 148th out of 175 countries, according to Yale and Columbia University’s
Environmental Performance Index.
Better late than never, Pakistan has started to acknowledge its renewable energy
potential as evidenced by the construction of Quaid-e-Azam Solar Park, with a
nameplate capacity of 1,000 MW. There is a need for more additional steps beyond the
Solar Park. In fact, all these steps should be part of a multipronged “energy
productivity” policy. By encouraging energy conservation (efficiency), on the one hand,
and facilitating a move toward clean renewables, on the other, the productivity policy
will not only enhance energy security but also improve the environment.
Energy efficiency (doing more tasks with less energy, as defined by Berkeley physicist
Richard Muller) is “cheaper than cheap.” It doesn’t cost much. A McKinsey & Company
report finds that savings made from energy conservation and efficiency would be
enough to pay for projects such as expanding wind from energy production and
installing solar panels.
In general, discussions about energy efficiency often fixate on its ability to lower energy
consumption, reduce expenditures, and curtail greenhouse gas emissions. It is worth
exploring if this mantra would work in developing Pakistan.
Like any emerging economy, Pakistan focuses on growth and poverty alleviation, and
the additional goods and services needed to produce these gains. More business
activities, infrastructure, housing, education, and health services require more energy
consumption. Paradoxically, the very idea of energy efficiency remains unappreciated,
in part, by a perception that it is a tool designed to reduce rather than expand
consumption and production. Since the focus in Pakistan remains on growth, which the
nation views as central to its future good, energy efficiency is dismissed as shorthand for
cutting down on growth.
In fact, presenting energy efficiency as “doing more with less,” as is the case in
developed countries, tends to get lost in translation in countries such as Pakistan. Thus,
a change in the energy efficiency paradigm is needed to better promote energy efficiency
in a way that links such efforts to improved living standards and increased prosperity. A
more inclusive alternative narrative such as energy productivity should be advocated —
that is, producing more goods and services with the same energy (equivalently, “doing
more with the same”). As opposed to the traditional energy efficiency paradigm focusing
solely on fewer inputs (“more with less”), energy productivity focuses on generating
more outputs with the same inputs.
Beyond the reframing of energy efficiency as a rhetorical concept, there is a need for
developing a sound and thoughtful energy productivity policy framework. Such a policy
framework would inculcate renewable energy as a significant aspect of energy
productivity policy. In the process, it would ameliorate energy security, address
environmental degradation, stimulate economic growth, and, last but not least, mitigate
public worries.
However, the energy productivity policy and its subsequent implementation cannot be
viewed in a vacuum. Cautious deliberations by concerned institutions must take place to
advance the tactical and strategic goals that are sought. In this regard, the government
of Pakistan must play a prominent role not only to ensure political stability and
institutional revamp but also to guarantee regional peace and security.
Aside from the distinct challenges of financing “sunk” and “fixed” costs amid the historic
debts and chronic losses, another significant constraint is the lack of appropriate
technology in the implementation of energy productivity policy. Pakistan needs to stay
abreast of high technology to harness its renewable energy resources and materialize its
energy efficiency goals. There are studies that talk about technological impoverishment
of Pakistan. Technological penury is one prime reason why Pakistan has not been able to
capitalize on its high abundance of renewable energy potential. The lack of technological
knowhow also helps to explain why non-hydro renewables currently account for less
than 4 percent (roughly 900 MW) of total installed electricity capacity against the
medium-term plan of having a minimum capacity of 9,700 MW by 2030. Given this, the
role of technology transfer in developing renewables and adopting energy conservation
is worth exploring.
To sum it up, I promote an alternative approach of energy productivity policy that not
only redefines energy efficiency, but also includes it along with an emphasis on
renewable sources to address energy crises in Pakistan. Concerned ministries would
have to be cognizant of the conditions in the energy productivity policy that would
ameliorate power blackouts. For successful implementation of the policy, the
government would have to ensure that regulatory agencies coordinate their efforts with
power companies to improve energy distribution, generation, and transmission.
Undoubtedly, the government would show its firm resolve in promoting energy
productivity reforms and eliminating constraints to effective energy productivity policy
implementation. Only then the nation will witness an “energized” homeland, healthy
environment, improved economy, and, ultimately a better quality of life for all citizens.
Muhammad Salar Khan is a Ph.D. Public Policy candidate and graduate research
assistant at Schar Scool of Policy & Government, George Mason University. He tweets
at @salarppolicy
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The power sector crisis is going to be a challenge for the new government to conquer. It
has plagued Pakistan for years despite promises of overcoming it by successive
governments. An act which should be commended is the ability of the last government
to overcome the energy deficit and show an increase in the amount of energy produced.
However, the problem was that they could not sustain that production and that is a
problem the new government will inherit. Work needs to be done to improve the
transmission lines which cannot carry the newly added currents into the system.
READ MORE: Asia Bibi’s lawyer says UN, EU made him leave Pakistan
The capacity payments at this point amount to Rs490 billion at the moment. Those
payments need to be streamlined because as they are increasing, so is the electricity
tariff for the consumers. This means that increased generation has increased the per
unit costs and the lack of payments to private power companies is increasing the
burden on the taxpayers. There is also a significant lag at the Ministry of Energy’s end.
The solar division has not facilitated the adoption of the wind and solar energy
alternates despite the lowering of price in the last three years. This resulted in a great
tariff for the consumers but the lack of prioritisation prevents us from taking advantage.
Same is the case with setting up small hydropower plants. At this point, Pakistan cannot
afford such lags and those appointed for these roles need to be as vigilant as possible.
If bodies such as the K-electric are underproducing than their actual capacity, they need
to be held accountable. At the same time, the role of the provincial bodies is very
important in the process but if there are reports of mismanagement, that needs to be
looked into. The new government will be under a lot of fire if the country sees another
five years without a necessity as basic as the electricity. This not only affects
businesses but also pushes the average Pakistani to cope up with extreme weathers,
even more so because of the lack of attention given to environmental concerns.
NEPRA has alluded that the energy policy and plan now curtails the independence to
take any concrete action because any action of the body is appealable in court and they
have to put up with bureaucratic red tape to actually be able to implement a policy.
These are grave challenges and ones that must be addressed to put the country on the
path of surplus energy production.
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OUTLINE:
1. Introduction
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector
2.1 Energy Supply
2.2 Energy Consumption
3. Sources of Energy in Pakistan
3.1 Non-renewable resources (Fossil fuels)
a).Petroleum products
b). Natural Gas
c). Coal
3.2 Renewable Resources
a). Hydro power
o Current Hydropower stations
o Potential Hydropower stations
3.3 Alternative Energy Sources
a). Wind
b). Solar
c). Agricultural biomass /biodiesel
d). Tidal
3.4 Nuclear
Energy is considered to be life line of any economy and most vital instrument of
socioeconomic development of a country. Energy is pivotal in running machinery in factories
and industrial units, for lighting our cities and powering our vehicles etc.
There has been an enormous increase in the demand of energy as a result of industrial
development and population growth, in comparison to enhancement in energy production.
Supply of energy is, therefore, far less than the actual demand, resultantly crisis has
emerged. An energy crisis can be defined as any great bottleneck (or price rise) in the
supply of energy resources to an economy.
2. Pakistan’s Energy Sector:
During 2009-10, Energy supply and per capita availability of energy witnessed a decline of
0.64 % and 3.09 % respectively in comparison to previous year.
Pakistan needs around 15,000 to 20000 MW electricity per day, however, currently it is able
to produce about 11,500 MW per day hence there is a shortfall of about 4000 to 9000 MW
per day. This shortage is badly hampering the economic growth of the country.
Pakistan’s energy consumption is met by mix of gas, oil, electricity, coal and LPG sources
with different level of shares. Share of gas consumption stood at 43.7 %, followed by oil
29.0 percent, electricity 15.3 percent, coal 10.4 percent and LPG 1.5 percent.
Non renewable resources are primarily fossil fuels emanating from remains/decomposition
of animals and plants deposited deep into the earth crust and converted into oil and gas.
These resources cannot be replenished. There are three main types of fossil fuels: coal,
petroleum, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
a). Petroleum products:
In 2009-10, consumption of petroleum products was 29% of total share of energy. Majority
of crude oil is imported from gulf countries to meet the demand. Power, industry and
transport sectors consume higher quantity of petroleum followed by agriculture and house
holds. Petroleum is also used in generation of electricity, which counts 64 percent of total
electricity generation (34 coming from hydro generation). Balance recoverable reserves of
crude oil in country have been estimated at 303.63 million barrels and we are extracting
approximately 24 million crude oil annually, meaning if we do not explore new wells, we will
exhaust our current crude oil reserves in 12-13 years.
b). Natural Gas:
Importance of natural gas is increasing rapidly. Average production of natural gas is
4,048.76 million cubic feet per day as against 3,986.53 million during corresponding last
year, showing an increase of 1.56 percent. Natural gas is used in general industry to
prepare consumer items, to produce cement, for manufacturing fertilizers and to generate
electricity. In form of CNG, it is used in transport sector. Share of natural gas in energy
consumption is 43.7 percent. Due to price differential between CNG and Petrol, vehicles are
using converted to CNG and approximately 2.0 million vehicles are using CNG and currently
Pakistan is the largest CNG user country in the world. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)
contributes around 0.7 percent to total energy supply in country and is being imported to
stop deforestation in hilly areas.
c). Coal:
Pakistan has coal reserves estimated at over 185 billion tonnes, including 175 billion tonnes
identified at Thar coalfields. Coal is primarily being used in brick kiln and cement industries
and approximately 67 percent coal is imported because indigenous coal is not considered of
good quality.
Guddu plant is largest plant thermal operated plant with a capacity of 1,650 MW, while two
largest Independent Power Plants (IPPs) in Pakistan are Kot Addu (1,600 MW) and Hubb
River (1,300 MW).
Renewable energy resources are those, which are naturally replenished and comes from
resources such as water, sunlight, wind, rain, tides, and geothermal heat.
a). Hydro power:
Hydro power is generated by using electricity generators to extract energy from moving
water. Pakistan is having rich resource of energy in hydal power, however, only 34 % of
total electricity generation is coming from hydro power. Currently we are having 6555 MW
against the potential of 41000 to 45000 MW.
Current Hydropower stations:
Tarbella Dam : 3,478 MW
Ghazi Brotha: 1450 MW
Mangla 1,000 MW
Warsak 240 MW
Chashma 184 MW
Potential Hydropower stations:
Tidal power can be extracted from Moon-gravity-powered tides by locating a water turbine
in a tidal current. The turbine can turn an electrical generator, or a gas compressor, that
can then store energy until needed. Coastal tides are a source of clean, free, renewable,
and sustainable energy.
Plans are underway in Pakistan to harness tidal energy, however, no implementation has
been made so far.
3.4 Nuclear:
Nuclear power stations use nuclear fission reaction to generate energy by the reaction of
uranium inside a nuclear reactor. Pakistan has a small nuclear power program, with 425 MW
capacity, but there are plans to increase this capacity substantially.
Since Pakistan is outside the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is excluded from trade in
nuclear plant or materials, which hinders its development of civil nuclear energy. Remaining
issues in development of nuclear energy are enricment of uranium from U235 to U238,
controlling chain reaction and dumping of solid waste.
Pakistan Nuclear Power Reactors
Reactor Type MW Construction started Commercial operation
Karachi PHWR 125 1966 1972
Chashma 1 PWR 300 1993 2000
Chashma 2 PWR 300 2005 expected 2011
Total 425 MW
* Pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) - Canadian based reactors
** Pressurized water reactor (PWR) – Chinese based reactors
4. Causes of Energy Crisis : Pakistan’s energy crisis traces its roots to following distinct
causes :
Pakistan has had wider potentials to tap energy, however, due to lack of any
integrated/proactive planning, very less number of power producing plant were installed to
meet futuristic demands. Resultantly, over the years, the gap between energy demand and
supply drastically grew and now against demand of 20000 MW, we are having around 11500
MW.
Energy mix in Pakistan is quite imbalance in comparison to other countries, with greater
reliance on non-renewable resources of gas (43.7 %) and oil (29 % - majority of which is
imported). Prices of petroleum products/crude oil fluctuate and in current Afro-Arab political
crisis, the oil prices are likely to increase manifold affecting oil prices in Pakistan.
o Thar Coal:
Pakistan is having one of the largest coal fields in Thar, having reserves of more than 175
billion tones, which exceeds equivalent oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, Iran etc.
In addition to power generation, this coal can be used for chemical and fertilizer
production.
Moreover, employment provided to workforce can be instrumental in increasing GDP and
economic prosperity to many families.
o Hydal power generation :
Pakistan has potential of hydro resources to generate 41000 to 45000 MW, however, only
6555 MW is currently being generated by this important renewable resource.
Four large hydro power dams namely Kalabagh 3600 MW, Bhasha 4500 MW, Bunji 5400
MW and Dasu 3800 MW can be constructed to generate hydro electricity.
Similarly, many small to medium hydro plants can be installed on rivers and canals etc.
5. Consequences of Energy Crisis :
i). Economic Factors: Energy is pivotal for running all other resources and crisis of energy
directly influences all other sectors of the economy. The economic progress is hampered by
decline in agricultural productivity as well as by halting in operations of industries. One
important factor of lower GDP and inflation of commodity prices in recent years is attributed
to shortfalls in energy supply.
iii). Industrial Sector: Nearly all Industrial units are run with the energy and breakage in
energy supply is having dire consequences on industrial growth. As a result of decline in
energy supply, industrial units are not only being opened, but also the existing industrial
units are gradually closing.
iv). Unemployment: By closure of industrial units and less agricultural productivity, new
employment opportunities ceased to exist and already employed manpower is shredded by
the employers to increase their profit ratios. Thus energy crisis contributes towards
unemployment.
v). Social Issues: This factor is primarily related to the domestic usage of energy (cooking,
heating and water provision). Load shedding cause unrest and frustration amongst the
people and results in agitation against the government.
6. Conclusion:
Energy Crisis has, moreorless, plagued all sectors of Pakistan’s machinery ranging from
economy to industry, agriculture to social life, inflation to poverty and it is hampering
national progress in a drastic manner. Nonetheless, menace of energy crisis can be
overwhelmed by government through making effective policies and its proactive
implementation. Simultaneously, it is the responsibility of us, the people of Pakistan, to
utilize the available energy astutely and wisely to play our due role for progress of the
country.
8. References :
Economic Survey of Pakistan 2009-10
Fact File : Energy Crisis in Pakistan June 2008 – Islamabad Policy Research Institute
(IPRI)
Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis by Muhammad Arshad Khan,
Senor Research Economist & Usman Ahmed, Staff Economist, Pakistan Institute of
Development Economics, Islamabad
CSS Forum - CSS Examination Preparation & Civil Service of Pakistan
Wikipedia
energy crisis: what can we do?
How to survive the energy crisis in Pakistan » Overseas Pakistani Friends
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The above quote embodies a raw truth that drives economies and societies in this post-industrial
era. An era where nothing functions without electricity. Fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas plus
renewables like solar, wind, biogases, and hydel energy form part of our national energy mix that
fuels our power generation. Along with nuclear power plants, the above feature as the main
power generating sources for the country. Cheap electric power is the veritable engine of
economic growth of any country, and it is dependent on the right mix of power generation
sources with primary reliance on indigenous resources. Expensive electricity jacks up the input
costs of most of our industrial products, rendering our exports uncompetitive in the international
market; a fact poignantly obvious by our plummeting exports and dwindling industrial imprint.
Countries like Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka have overtaken us in export volume and
industrial productivity. The above has been made possible due to bad planning, a cloyingly high
tax regime, and lack of exploitation of indigenous resources for power generation.
The lemming like suicidal tendency of an overpopulated and water scarce country in the throes
of economic insolvency is inscrutable indeed, when one views the ever increasing poverty and
declining human development indicators. A water abundant country at independence having over
5000 cubic meters per capita of water is now a water stressed country with less than 1000 cubic
meters per capita. Pakistan, which depends on gas for 50 percent of its power generation has not
been able to significantly add to its depleting natural gas resources; whose current reserve
replacement ratio is less than 26 percent. The country’s gas supply-demand has reached two
billion cubic feet per day, with no significant additions to the national natural gas infrastructure
despite the issuance of 96 gas exploration licenses and 90 finds over the last three years. The
reduction in the gas volumes by five percent per annum shall reduce our gas availability to three
billion cubic feet per day by the year 2022. Unfortunately this gas is being filled by costly
imported LNG, which as a consequence of rising oil prices, is going to prove exorbitantly costly
in the future. To bridge the power gap, the only sensible initiative by the present government, in
addition to hydel dams in collaboration with the Chinese companies, has been the initiation of
coal fired power projects based on indigenous Thar coal.
The country’s gas supply-demand has reached 2 billion cubic feet per day, with no significant
additions to the national natural gas infrastructure despite the issuance of 96 gas exploration
licenses and 90 finds over the last three years
An indication of costly power generation is given by a study conducted by the American Council
for the Renewable Energy (ACORE) according to which the costs of LNG, coal, nuclear, wind,
natural gas, and hydropower are 12-14, 5-6, 9.5, 6, 6, and 2 cents per KwH respectively. Despite
being blessed with a proven hydel potential of 41,722 megawatts, Pakistan has exploited only
6,595 megawatts so far. In case of wind power, Pakistan has been blessed with a wind corridor
with a 50,000 megawatt potential, out of which less than 2.5percent has been exploited so far. As
per the latest reports, the percentage share of the thermal power generation has gone up to 67
percent in the national energy mix. The RLNG lobby obviously managed to convince the policy
makers to elbow out solar and wind energy to the margins, albeit temporarily as the country
cannot go against the international energy trends where solar, wind, and hydropower are gaining
ground due to environmental and economic reasons. Our anachronistic policy making, which still
encourages costly LNG power generation in addition to keeping alive unproductive and costly
public sector ‘Generation Companies’, (GENCOs) makes no sense.
The real reason we are not building big dams and promoting wind and solar energy do not reside
in the realm of economic logic but political expediencies. It is time we overcame political
bulwarks in the way of large hydel projects like Kalabagh Dam. Such pointless games are
imperilling our food and energy security. The country will definitely face a water and energy
shortage in the future unless we build both small and big dams for irrigation as well as power
generation. It is time those who understood hydrology, economy, and environment took the lead
role in policy formulation to mitigate the risk of the impending water and energy crisis. A fallacy
that has been peddled by vested interests also needs to be exposed. This fallacy pertains to the
need and relevance of big dams. Visionless particularists with narrow political interests and
limited technical knowledge speak day in and day out about the irrelevance of big dams due to
large potential for small dams all over the country. Little do these visionless bigots understand
that small dams could never replace big dams, whose power generation and irrigation potential
could never be rivalled by any number of small dams.
The country badly needs dams and an efficient irrigation infrastructure capable of limiting
seepage losses, in view of impending water shortages in the near future. If India can make 43000
dams, in this very neighbourhood, what stops us from emulating them? Unfortunately it seems
we only want to match our Eastern neighbour when it comes to missiles and other weapons.
Pakistan needs to initiate the required planning measures urgently. There is an emergent need to
define a national energy vision for the next 5 to ten years. A ‘National Energy Mix’ needs to be
planned in the light of economic and environmental imperatives relying on cleaner, cheaper and
indigenously available resources. The share of costly thermal power should be minimized in the
new national energy mix, with a lion’s share going to hydropower, solar, wind, and indigenous
coal based power sources. A national power resources and infrastructure development authority
should be created, recentralising WAPDA’s powers, unhindered by pressure from the World
Bank and IMF.
The reconstituted WAPDA invested with the powers to develop electricity evacuation grid and
big dams should take the lead role in this national endeavour. WAPDA’s project development
and electricity grid development capability as the lead role player should act as a strategic
enabler for the public-private partnerships in the power sector, in addition to purely private
investments. The privatisation of DISCOs should be put on hold for the next ten years and
WAPDA empowered again to oversee their operation.
The strategic and operational synergies thus created between all elements of the national power
matrix i.e. power generation, evacuation, distribution, and maintenance should enable execution
of new and existing projects with celerity. It is time we reconstituted our national energy mix,
developed new projects relying on renewables, provided favourable conditions to private
investors, and minimized the imprint of costly imported fuels as energy sources.
Pakistan’s energy woes cannot be resolved through half-hearted and piecemeal solutions
pandering to the wishes of lobbies with axes to grind and nests to feather. Our energy woes can
only be addressed through a holistic policy architecture under a fully empowered authority
capable of implementing policy vision in near and distant time horizons. The elusive political
consensus on the big dams would need to be achieved, regardless of the political noise it
generates. Some things cannot wait to be happened; our energy jinx would have to be broken
even at the cost of national consensus in the interest of national survival.
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HISTORY OF ENERGY CRISIS FROM 1947 TO 2010