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Energy policy of China–

affected by Trump or by
Chen Jinning?
Philipp Baumeister, David Diago, Carlos Gutierrez, Johannes Hinrichs, Alvaro Quiles

INTRODUCTION
China is facing different challenges in the near future. While the ecological damage is proceeding and the megacities are drowning in smog, the economy is facing a huge uncertainty because of the change of
USA´s trading policy. But how do these issues influence the development of energy policies in China? To show the impacts, two scenarios were generated in the following. The „Trump Scenario“ is underlying an
economical driving force, while in the „Chen Jinning Scenario“ the change is driven by the ecological problems .
“TRUMP SCENARIO” “CHEN JINING SCENARIO”
Electricity Production China 2014 After 2016 elections Donald Trump is the new president Last year one million deaths has been registered due to
of the USA. USA has decided to break the TPP (Trans- air pollution, that makes 1 death every 31 seconds! The
Pacific Partnership) encouraging the rest of the Environmental protection minister of China, Chen Jining,
occidental countries to follow this trend. is pressing the government to increase environmental
Because of trades going down, Chinese´s economy is policies. At the same time, protests start to take place,
facing a slowdown starting 2017. Chinas industry reacts concerning the bad ecological conditions.
by making cheaper the production. This comes with The economy of China is more and more coming to a
returning to the traditional energy production strategy, sustainable growth. The international investment
using fossils such as coal and nuclear energy. strategy that China has been practicing over years is
Consequently, investments in renewable energies are paying off, what leads to Chinas industry having
highly decreasing. knowhow on a comparative basis.
The rise of Chinas GHG emissions keeps up the This, together with the increasing pressure of the
pressure of the United Nations trying to make China society, makes Chinas government implement a
aware of the importance of focusing on renewable development plan, which includes a GHG certificate
energies again. Through international furtherance, trading system for the whole country. Also included in
measurements aiming the upgrading of renewable this plan is a quantity-based approach to foster
Energies are implemented. This promotion leads to renewable energies: a fixed quota of the electricity sold
Renewable Energies in Chinese´s economy is recovering rapidly. In terms of by operators has to be generated from renewable
energy systems, the renewable energies start to be an energy sources, determined through “Green
Electricity Production China
important part of the electricity production. Certificates”. This quantity-based strategy makes the
2014
expansion of renewable energies projectable and leads
to the target of 85% “green” electricity in 2050.

METHODS
Ideas generating Data integration Consistency check
Internet Research, Brainstorming, Scenario Matrix Computer aided calculations, Plotting of timelines/ charts Internet Research, Comparison with other Scenarios

RESULTS

TRUMP JINING
SCENARIO: SCENARIO:

2025 2050 2025 2050

CONCLUSION
In the Trump scenario is worth bearing in mind how China has recovered its economy after the slow down at the year 2017 .Whereas in Jinning’s scenario the economy has runned better during all the years of
study, also they have invested much more in renewable energies than in Trump’s scenario.
Furthermore, in both scenarios it is important to mention that Co2 emissions are decreasing at the year 2050.
To sum up, it is necessary to highlight the importance of these following years in terms of the transformation in generating the electricity, nowadays china has a 73% of coal in electricity production, however at
the time of 2050 in both scenarios the government has reduced drastically this percentage in favor of the renewable energies. This is undoubtedly the tendency that China will follow during the following years.

LITERATURE
[1] «IEA – Report» International Energy Agency, www.iea.org, 15.07.2016 [3] «Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2016», Enerdata, www.yearbook.enerdata.net,
[2] «Die rot-grüne Supermacht», Klaus Hecking, ZEIT ONLINE, www.zeit.de, 08.12.2016 15.01.2017
[4] statista, www.statista.com, 15.01.2017

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