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The views expressed in this paper are entirely the author’s own and
not those of the Lowy Institute.
US–VIETNAM RELATIONS UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Under the Obama administration, the US–Vietnam relationship
experienced a significant improvement, in particular in terms of security
cooperation. China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea
has helped the warming of bilateral ties. The Trans-Pacific Partnership
also offered a prospect of escaping China’s economic orbit. But just as
the hard-earned security rapprochement was starting to gain
momentum, newly elected US President Donald Trump announced the
US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Soon after the
rebalance to Asia was declared officially dead. Neither was good news
for Vietnam.
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US–VIETNAM RELATIONS UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP
One of President Trump’s first acts in office was to withdraw from the
Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement that was important
economically and politically to Vietnam. Hanoi also has doubts about
whether the new administration shares its security concerns about
Chinese activities in the South China Sea. President Trump’s visit to
Vietnam to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Summit in November 2017 has, therefore, assumed a great deal of
significance and will play a major role in setting the tone and terms for
the relationship in coming years.
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Vietnamese defence policy Vietnamese defence policy has traditionally been quite conservative,
with strong emphasis on self-reliance. The so called ‘three no’s’ — no to
has traditionally been quite foreign military bases; no to foreign military alliances; and no to using a
conservative, with strong third country to oppose another — have been the key elements of its
defence strategy. This policy was adopted in the aftermath of Vietnam’s
emphasis on self-reliance.
normalisation with China in 1991. It was intended to reassure Beijing that
Hanoi had no hostile intent towards it.
Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh
has described five ways in which the country has tried to protect and
assert its interests in the South China Sea. These include: holding
regular dialogues between Vietnamese and Chinese government
officials, communist party functionaries and military officers; supporting
the 2002 ASEAN Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South
China Sea, which it hopes it can eventually develop into a Code of
Conduct; internationalising the South China Sea dispute by raising
awareness about it in regional and international forums; accelerating
defence modernisation programs with an emphasis on improving the
military’s air and naval capabilities; and diversifying its foreign relations
by expanding partnerships with a broad range of countries.6
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The most important development in the South China Sea dispute since
the HYSY-981 incident was the ruling of the arbitral tribunal in The
Hague in July 2016 on the case brought by the Philippines against China
concerning China’s behaviour in the South China Sea. The court ruled
that China’s artificial islands had no legal status and the exclusive
economic zone of 12 nautical miles could not be applied to them.7 The
ruling was a moral victory for Manila, but as well as for all other
claimants in the South China Sea.
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Tighter collaboration with Japan has two benefits for Vietnam. It is a way
for Vietnam to gradually increase its level of comfort in drawing closer to
the United States and its network of allies in the region. It also provides
an alternative to becoming solely dependent on the United States. In
other words, closer relations with Japan helps Vietnam to balance China,
to reinforce its military capabilities, and strengthen its economy without
going through the ideological and historical trauma of rapidly
strengthening ties with the United States. If the momentum continues,
the relationship has the potential to become a trilateral US–Japan–
Vietnam relationship.13
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Whereas in the past Hanoi had viewed the relationship with the United
States with considerable caution and mistrust, a new tone was struck in
this period. Prominent Vietnamese intellectuals began openly advocating
a tighter association with the United States on the grounds that “national
interests were bigger than history and ideology”.21 In 2015 Vietnam’s
Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong paid a formal
visit to Washington and met with President Obama. It was the first time a
head of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam had a formal meeting
with the US president in the Oval Office of the White House. The
involvement of the Party General Secretary in diplomatic initiatives is
relatively rare. His visit signalled that the need for deepening relations
with the US had been socialised even within the more conservative circle
of the Party.
lethal weapons sales… “maintain peace, security and stability in the region, ensuring
maritime security and safety, including the rights of freedom of
[was] to “ensure that
navigation and overflight and other lawful uses of the seas, and
Vietnam has access to unimpeded lawful maritime commerce as described in the 1982
the equipment it needs to UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as well as
non-militarization and self-restraint in the conduct of activities.”22
defend itself”.
The reference to non-militarisation was particularly important to Vietnam
given this issue had traditionally been cautiously avoided in official
ASEAN statements. The fact that it was the same place where Obama
had held a summit meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured
ASEAN leaders that the United States was not going to sacrifice their
interests for the sake of the China relationship. 23
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many ways the logical end of the normalisation process between the two
countries, but also the start of a new chapter in geostrategic relations in
the Asia-Pacific.26 In theory it enables Vietnam to diversify the sources of
its military equipment. Any shift will likely be a gradual one, however, not
least given the language and training barriers to procuring equipment
from new sources. Nevertheless, Vietnam has a growing need for
surveillance equipment including maritime patrol and reconnaissance
aircraft as well as command and control equipment, which could be met
by US defence suppliers.
In fact, after nine months in office, and amid growing tension in the
region, there is little sign that Trump is formulating a comprehensive
strategy for Asia. The North Korean nuclear crisis has absorbed most of
Washington’s attention when it comes to Asia. Moreover, Trump’s initial
talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping has led some in Southeast Asia
to fear that a softer US line on the South China Sea could be traded for
Beijing’s cooperation on North Korea.28
The United States has a large trade deficit with Vietnam, which totalled
US$32 billion in 2016.29 During the presidential campaign Vietnam was
listed by Trump as one of a number of countries flooding the US
economy with cheap goods. The United States has also been critical of
Vietnam’s lack of protection for intellectual property rights, placing it on
its watch list in 2016. During his visit in May, the Vietnamese prime
minister tried to alleviate these and other concerns. Phuc signed a
US$15–17 billion agreement on the exchange of technological goods
and services, which President Trump described as a win-win outcome:
“They [Vietnam] just made a very large order in the United States — and
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we appreciate that — for many billions of dollars, which means jobs for
the United States and great, great equipment for Vietnam.”30
The joint statement from the meeting reaffirmed the United States’
commitment to the existing comprehensive partnership between the two
states, as well as the principles established in the joint statement issued
at the US–ASEAN Sunnylands summit. The Vietnamese were reassured
by a US pledge to continue defence ties but also to expand cooperation
into the intelligence field.31 Nevertheless, in contrast to the Vietnam–US
leaders’ exchanges in 2016 when Obama visited Hanoi, the meeting
seemed transactional in nature, in line with the new president’s foreign
policy approach. Leaders in Hanoi are actively trying to respond to the
shift, hoping not only to boost bilateral relations, but also to draw
Trump’s attention to geoeconomic and geostrategic challenges in the
region. As a follow-up, the Vietnamese Defence Minister Ngo Xuan Lich
visited Washington in August. US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis
confirmed that the naval cooperation between the two countries would
continue to expand:
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While neither the United States nor Vietnam are likely to seek a formal
alliance along the lines of US arrangements with Thailand, the
Philippines, or Australia, a more flexible strategic partnership — similar
to the one with Singapore — is a feasible model. It would require further
commitments from both sides. The United States would be expected to
play a bigger role in strengthening the capacity of Vietnam’s defence
…neither the United force — including supplying hardware and defence technology. Vietnam
would be expected to reciprocate. One possibility would be for it to
States nor Vietnam are
provide the US Navy with access to the Cam Ranh Bay naval base.
likely to seek a formal Cam Ranh Bay is considered the finest deep-water shelter in Southeast
alliance… Asia. It served as a naval and air base for US forces during the Vietnam
War. So far, the United States, like other countries, including China,
have had access to the commercial port at Cam Ranh Bay. Only Russia
has had privileged access to the naval base. US warship visits are also
limited to one per year. Previously, Hanoi has rejected Washington’s
proposal to host rotations of US troops and warships at the naval base,
partly because of historical sensitivities.
CONCLUSION
While President Trump’s attitude to Vietnam is still unclear, senior
officials in his administration have been actively working to ensure that
the Obama administration’s efforts to strengthen the relationship will
continue. President Trump will be the first US president to visit Vietnam
within his first year in office. Nevertheless, there are some difficult issues
to be negotiated, chief among them the economic relationship.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
A part of this paper benefited from discussion at the Australia–
Singapore–US policy trialogue on Southeast Asia hosted by the
Australian National University, the S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies and Stanford University.
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NOTES
1John Kerry, “Remarks to Ho Chi Minh City Business Community and Fulbright
Economic Teaching Program Participants”, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam,
14 December 2013, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2013/12/
218721.htm.
2 William Jordan, Lewis Stern and Walter Lohman, “US–Vietnam Defense
Relations: Investing in Strategic Alignment”, Backgrounder No 2707, 18 July
2012, http://www.heritage.org/asia/report/us-vietnam-defense-relations-investing-
strategic-alignment.
3 China is Vietnam’s biggest trading partner; however, it suffers huge trade
deficits. Vietnam is dependent on China for supply of parts for most of its key
exports.
4 Carlyle Thayer, “The Tyranny of Geography: Vietnamese Strategies to
Constrain China in the South China Sea”, Contemporary Southeast Asia 33,
Issue 3 (2011), 348–369.
5Brantly Womack, China and Vietnam: The Politics of Asymmetry (Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 2006), 9.
6 Pham Binh Minh, “Thoughts on Shaping New Foreign Policy [Một số suy nghĩ
về định hình chính sách đối ngoại mới]”, in Setting Direction for Strategic
Diplomacy of Vietnam Toward 2020 [Định Hướng Chiến Lược Đối Ngoại Việt
Nam đến 2020], Binh Minh Pham ed (Hanoi: National Political Publisher Nhà
Xuất Bản Quốc Gia, 2010).
7
Full text of the Arbitral Tribunal Award: https://pca-cpa.org/wp-
content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Award.pdf.
8Gregory Poling, “South China Sea: Vietnam Takes Up Fight against China”,
CNN, 15 August 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/14/opinions/vietnam-
south-china-sea-gregory-poling/index.html.
9Catherine Wong and Kristin Huang, “Top Chinese General Cuts Short Vietnam
Trip amid South China Sea Tensions”, South China Morning Post, 22 June 2017,
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2099560/pla-
general-skipped-south-china-sea-meeting-during.
10 “Vietnam Ceases to Exploit Oil and Gas under Pressure from China”, Radio
Free Asia, 24 July 2017, http://www.rfa.org/vietnamese/news/vietnamnews/
vietnam-halts-drilling-after-china-threats-07242017084010.html.
11 Bill Hayton, “The Week Donald Trump Lost the South China Sea”, Foreign
Policy, 31 July 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/31/the-week-donald-trump-
lost-the-south-china-sea/.
12 Huong Le Thu, “Vietnam’s Evolving Role in ASEAN: From Adjusting to
Advocating”, Brookings, 24 July 2016, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/
vietnams-evolving-role-in-asean-from-adjusting-to-advocating/.
13 Prashanth Parameswaran, “Japan Warships Could Visit Vietnam Naval Base
Near South China Sea in 2016”, The Diplomat, 10 November 2015,
http://thediplomat.com/2015/11/japan-warships-could-visit-vietnam-naval-base-
near-south-china-sea-in-2016/.
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Huong Le Thu
Huong Le Thu
lethu.huong@anu.edu.au
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Sydney NSW 2000 Australia Fax: +61 2 8238 9005 twitter: @lowyinstitute