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# Nama : OKTALINA KARIMAH

NIM : 17051214009
Sistem Informasi 2017 A

Tugas 3
Probabilitas dan Statistika

1. Oishi and Shigehiro (2010) report that people who move from home to home frequently
as children tend to have lower than average levels of well-being as adults. To further
examine this relationship, a psychologist obtains a sample of n = 12 young adults who
each experienced 5 or more different homes before they were 16 years old. These
participants were given a standardized well-being questionnaire for which the general
population has an average score of µ= 40. The well-being scores for this sample are as
follows: 38, 37, 41, 35, 42, 40, 33, 33, 36, 38, 32, 39.
a. On the basis of this sample, is well-being for frequent movers significantly different
from wellbeing in the general population? Use a two-tailed test with a α = 0.05.
b. Compute the estimated Cohen’s d to measure the size of the difference.
c. Write a sentence showing how the outcome of the hypothesis= test and the measure of
effect size would appear in a research report.

2. A local college requires an English composition course for all freshmen. This year they
are evaluating a new online version of the course. A random sample of n = 16 freshmen
is selected and the students are placed in the online course. At the end of the semester, all
freshmen take the same English composition exam. The average score for the sample is M
= 76. For the general population of freshmen who took the traditional lecture class, the
exam scores form a normal distribution with a mean of µ= 80.
a. If the final exam scores for the population have a standard deviation of σ = 12, does
the sample provide enough evidence to conclude that the new online course is
significantly different from the traditional class? Assume a two-tailed test with α =
0.05.
b. If the population standard deviation is σ = 6, is the sample sufficient to demonstrate a
significant difference? Again, assume a two-tailed test with α = 0.05.
c. Comparing your answers for parts a and b, explain how the magnitude of the standard
deviation influences the outcome of a hypothesis test.

1. The given sample are 38, 37, 41, 35, 42, 40, 33, 33, 36, 38, 32, 39
∑(𝑥) 38+37+41+35+42+40+33+33+36+38+32+39 444
Sample mean, 𝑀 = = = = 37
𝑛 12 12
∑(𝑥−𝑀)2 (1+0+16+4+25+9+16+16+1+1+25+4) 118
Sample variance, 𝑠 2 = = = = 10.7273
𝑛−1 11 11

## Sample std dev, 𝑠 = √𝑠 2 = √10.7273 = 3.2753

̅ = 37
𝑀
a. Hypothesis test 𝑠 = 3.2753
H0: µ = 40 𝑛 = 12
H1: µ ≠ 40 𝛼 = 0.05
Two-tailed test 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 = 11
M−μ 37−40
Test statistic, 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 = s⁄ = 3.2753⁄ = −3.1729
√n √12

## Using excel with formula = TDIST(3.1729,11,2), the p-value = 0.008872661

Critical value, tc = ± 2.200985  ± 2.201
Reject and this is significant

𝑀−𝜇 37−40 −3
b. = 3.2753 = 3.2753 = −0.91594663084297621591915244405093
𝑠

c. Since |𝑡𝑜 | > 𝑡𝑐 or equivalently since p-value < α, we reject the H0. Hence at α = 0.05,
we have sufficient evidence to conclude that µ is different from 40.

0.025

0.025

2.201
-2.201
2. n = 16, M = 76, µ = 80

a. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 80, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝜎 = 12
𝑀−𝜇 76 − 80 −4 −4
𝑀 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑧 = = = = = −1.33
𝜎 ⁄ √𝑛 12⁄√16 12⁄4 3
Because z = -1.33 > -1.96 this isn’t sufficient to reject the H0. You can’t conclude that
the course does have a significant effect .

b. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 80, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝜎 = 6
𝑀−𝜇 76 − 80 −4 −4
𝑀 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑧 = = = = = −2.67
𝜎⁄√𝑛 6⁄√16 6⁄4 1.5
Because z = -2.67 < -1.96 this is sufficient to reject the H0. You can conclude that the
course does have a significant effect .

c. There’s a 4 point difference between the sample and the hypothesis. In part
a standard error 3 point and the 4 point difference isn’t significant.
However, In part a standard error is only 1.5 point and the 4 point
difference is now significantly more than is expected by chance. In
general, a larger standard deviation produces a larger standard error, which
reduces the likelihood of rejecting the H0.