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NIM : 17051214009

Sistem Informasi 2017 A

Tugas 3

Probabilitas dan Statistika

1. Oishi and Shigehiro (2010) report that people who move from home to home frequently

as children tend to have lower than average levels of well-being as adults. To further

examine this relationship, a psychologist obtains a sample of n = 12 young adults who

each experienced 5 or more different homes before they were 16 years old. These

participants were given a standardized well-being questionnaire for which the general

population has an average score of µ= 40. The well-being scores for this sample are as

follows: 38, 37, 41, 35, 42, 40, 33, 33, 36, 38, 32, 39.

a. On the basis of this sample, is well-being for frequent movers significantly different

from wellbeing in the general population? Use a two-tailed test with a α = 0.05.

b. Compute the estimated Cohen’s d to measure the size of the difference.

c. Write a sentence showing how the outcome of the hypothesis= test and the measure of

effect size would appear in a research report.

2. A local college requires an English composition course for all freshmen. This year they

are evaluating a new online version of the course. A random sample of n = 16 freshmen

is selected and the students are placed in the online course. At the end of the semester, all

freshmen take the same English composition exam. The average score for the sample is M

= 76. For the general population of freshmen who took the traditional lecture class, the

exam scores form a normal distribution with a mean of µ= 80.

a. If the final exam scores for the population have a standard deviation of σ = 12, does

the sample provide enough evidence to conclude that the new online course is

significantly different from the traditional class? Assume a two-tailed test with α =

0.05.

b. If the population standard deviation is σ = 6, is the sample sufficient to demonstrate a

significant difference? Again, assume a two-tailed test with α = 0.05.

c. Comparing your answers for parts a and b, explain how the magnitude of the standard

deviation influences the outcome of a hypothesis test.

ANSWER

1. The given sample are 38, 37, 41, 35, 42, 40, 33, 33, 36, 38, 32, 39

∑(𝑥) 38+37+41+35+42+40+33+33+36+38+32+39 444

Sample mean, 𝑀 = = = = 37

𝑛 12 12

∑(𝑥−𝑀)2 (1+0+16+4+25+9+16+16+1+1+25+4) 118

Sample variance, 𝑠 2 = = = = 10.7273

𝑛−1 11 11

̅ = 37

𝑀

a. Hypothesis test 𝑠 = 3.2753

H0: µ = 40 𝑛 = 12

H1: µ ≠ 40 𝛼 = 0.05

Two-tailed test 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 = 11

M−μ 37−40

Test statistic, 𝑡𝑜𝑏𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒𝑑 = s⁄ = 3.2753⁄ = −3.1729

√n √12

Critical value, tc = ± 2.200985 ± 2.201

Reject and this is significant

𝑀−𝜇 37−40 −3

b. = 3.2753 = 3.2753 = −0.91594663084297621591915244405093

𝑠

c. Since |𝑡𝑜 | > 𝑡𝑐 or equivalently since p-value < α, we reject the H0. Hence at α = 0.05,

we have sufficient evidence to conclude that µ is different from 40.

0.025

0.025

2.201

-2.201

2. n = 16, M = 76, µ = 80

a. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 80, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝜎 = 12

𝑀−𝜇 76 − 80 −4 −4

𝑀 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑧 = = = = = −1.33

𝜎 ⁄ √𝑛 12⁄√16 12⁄4 3

Because z = -1.33 > -1.96 this isn’t sufficient to reject the H0. You can’t conclude that

the course does have a significant effect .

b. 𝐻0 : 𝜇 = 80, 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝜎 = 6

𝑀−𝜇 76 − 80 −4 −4

𝑀 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑧 = = = = = −2.67

𝜎⁄√𝑛 6⁄√16 6⁄4 1.5

Because z = -2.67 < -1.96 this is sufficient to reject the H0. You can conclude that the

course does have a significant effect .

c. There’s a 4 point difference between the sample and the hypothesis. In part

a standard error 3 point and the 4 point difference isn’t significant.

However, In part a standard error is only 1.5 point and the 4 point

difference is now significantly more than is expected by chance. In

general, a larger standard deviation produces a larger standard error, which

reduces the likelihood of rejecting the H0.

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