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Rating : Buy
Cox & Kings (CNKLIM) | 190
Target
Target Period
:
:
| 220
12 months
Weak performance; debt concerns addressed
Potential Upside : 16%
Cox & Kings reported Q2FY19 numbers that were below our
estimates on all fronts. Revenues grew 16.2% to | 754 crore (vs. I-
What’s Changed?
direct estimate of | 774 crore). led by 36% YoY growth in the
Target Unchanged
EPS FY19E Changed from | 12.3 to | 10.4
Meininger segment and 31% YoY growth in the education segment
EPS FY20E Changed from | 17.0 to | 16.2 However, EBITDA came in at | 282.6 crore, down 16.6% YoY,
Rating Unchanged dragged by forex loss of | 17 crore in Q2FY19 vs. forex gain of | 49
crore in Q2FY18. Excluding the forex impact, the company reported
Quarterly Performance EBITDA growth of 2% YoY to | 296 crore on a like-to-like basis
Q2FY19 Q2FY18 YoY (%) Q1FY19 QoQ (%) During the quarter, the company entered into an agreement with
Revenue 753.6 648.4 16.2 790.1 -4.6 Midlothian Capital Partners to sell its education business for an all-
EBITDA 282.6 338.7 -16.6 281.6 0.3 cash enterprise value of | 4387 crore (i.e. £467 million)
EBITDA (%) 37.5 52.2 -1474 bps 35.6 185 bps Domestic business continues to perform well…
Adjusted PAT 81.1 112.2 -12.5 57.4 NA During FY18, the company’s leisure India revenues increased 12.4% YoY
Key Financials
mainly on the back of improving domestic spend and higher growth in
| crore FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
foreign tourist arrival. Further, consumer sentiments continued to remain
Net sales 2179.4 2379.6 2657.8 2941.1 healthy as witnessed in air passenger traffic growth and improved hotel
EBITDA 680.9 1015.2 845.7 1125.5 occupancy. In addition, with improved tourism measures by the
Net Profit -10.2 363.1 183.6 286.7 government, we expect domestic leisure business to continue to
EPS (|) -0.6 20.6 10.4 16.2 outperform in coming years. Hence, we expect leisure revenues to grow
at a CAGR of 11% in FY18-20E.
Valuation summary
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Led by Meininger, international revenues poised for growth…
PE (x) NA 9.2 18.3 11.7 Bed capacity addition (up 42.8% YoY in FY18) has led the company to
Target PE (x) NA 10.9 21.6 13.8 report 29.6% YoY increase in Meininger revenues in FY18. Further, in
EV to EBITDA (x) 7.4 5.5 6.7 5.1 coming years, the company plans to have a bed capacity of 15,000 at
Price to book (x) 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.9 Meininger by FY19 and 25,000 by the end of FY22 from a bed capacity of
RoNW (%) -0.4 11.0 5.3 7.7 10,400 (i.e. a CAGR of 24% in FY18-22). As a result, we expect Meininger
RoCE (%) 8.8 11.2 8.4 11.0
revenues to drive a substantial part of growth in the international
business. In the education business, the company plans to add 830 beds
Stock data
(560 beds added in FY18), which will also boost international revenues.
Particular Amount
Further, various divestments of subsidiaries in leisure international is
Mcap | 3354 crore
Debt (FY18) | 3907 crore
likely to positively impact the EBITDA margins.
Cash & Invest(FY18) | 1644 crore Sale of education division to help reduce debt significantly
EV | 5617 crore Cox and Kings’ Board has entered into an agreement to sell its education
52 week H/L | 306/199
business to Midlothian Capital Partners for all cash enterprise value of
Equity cap | 86.4 crore
| 4387 crore. The focus on asset light strategy and reduction in debt
Face value |5
burden remains the key main criteria behind this move as the education
Price performance (%) business is a capex heavy one. This division reported revenue & EBITDA
1M 3M 6M 12M of | 613 crore and | 242 crore, respectively, for FY18. Post this deal, the
Cox & Kings 12.3 1.3 4.7 -8.4 overall debt burden will come down from | 3907 crore to | 1507 crore.
Nifty 0.1 -8.3 -3.0 1.6 Again, with the transfer of | 250 crore debt to its de-merged entity (i.e.
forex division), the debt burden will come down to | 1257 crore, which is
1.6x of adjusted FY20E EBITDA against 3.4x earlier.
Concern over debt being addressed; maintain BUY
We expect the company’s domestic leisure revenues to grow at 11%
CAGR in FY18-20E mainly led by improving domestic spend and higher
Research Analyst
growth in foreign tourist arrivals. The company plans to increase bed
Rashesh Shah capacity at Meininger at 28% CAGR in FY18-22E will also drive the
rashes.shah@icicisecurities.com
revenue growth of its international segment. With concerns over high
Romil Mehta debt now being addressed, we turn positive on the company with a BUY
romil.mehta@icicisecurities.com rating on the stock. Valuing at 6.5x FY20E adjusted EBITDA, we maintain
our target price of | 220 per share.
Change in estimates
FY19E FY20E
(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments
Revenue 2,735.3 2,657.8 -2.8 3,027.0 2,941.1 -2.8 We expect Meininger and leisure India to drive revenues over FY18-20E
EBITDA 854.6 845.7 -1.0 1,150.8 1,125.5 -2.2
Adjusting for forex gain, EBITDA margin was at 36.9% in FY18. We expect margins
EBITDA Margin (%) 31.2 31.8 58 bps 38.0 38.3 25 bps to improve to 38% over coming years
PAT 187.4 183.6 -2.1 296.8 286.7 -3.4
EPS (|) 10.6 10.4 -2.1 16.8 16.2 -3.4
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research,
3,000
2,500
2,000 1,462
1,313
1,129
| crore
1,125.5
1,200.0 1,011.9 1,015.2 50.0
1,000.0 890.2 845.7
784.5
800.0 680.9 40.0
| crore
600.0
400.0 30.0
200.0
- 20.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
EBITDA - LS EBITDA (%) - RS
Exhibit 3: Q2FY19 revenues up 16.2% YoY Exhibit 4: Expect revenue CAGR of 11.2% during FY18-20E
2,941
3,500.0 140.0
790.1
2,658
1000.0 20.0
753.6
2,570
705.6
2,380
2,379
120.0
2,308
648.4
3,000.0
2,179
590.0
800.0 10.0
532.3
100.0
493.3
1,808
2,500.0
460.9
419.3
600.0 - 80.0
2,000.0
60.0
400.0 (10.0) 1,500.0
40.0
838
200.0 (20.0) 1,000.0
497
20.0
399
0.0 (30.0) 500.0 -
- (20.0)
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
FY19E
FY20E
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
Revenues ( | crore) - LS Growth (%) - RS
Revenues (| crore) - LS Growth (%) - RS
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Q3FY16
Q4FY16
Q1FY17
Q2FY17
Q3FY17
Q4FY17
Q1FY18
Q2FY18
Q3FY18
Q4FY18
Q1FY19
Q2FY19
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 7: Valuation
Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE
(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
FY17 2179.4 -8.4 -0.6 NA 0.0 7.4 -0.4 8.8
FY18 2379.6 9.2 20.6 NA 9.2 5.5 11.0 11.2
FY19E 2657.8 11.7 10.4 -49.4 18.3 6.7 5.3 8.4
FY20E 2941.1 10.7 16.2 56.2 11.7 5.1 7.7 11.0
(%)
200 40.0
30.0
100 20.0
10.0
0 0.0
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Dec-15
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Jan-17
Feb-17
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Apr-17
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Aug-16
Aug-17
Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY
Recent Activity
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Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
research@icicidirect.com
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