CAPE

ENVIROMENTAL SCIENCE
UNIT 1
MODULE 2
CLASS NOTES

CONTENT 4:
The effects of humans’ population will depend on the carrying capacity of the Earth – the
Maximum number of people that the world can sustain for a long period of time.

Demographic transition – a change in the population

Most of the population growth in recent years has taken place in developing countries.

For example: before the Industrial Revolution, the population of Great Britain was relatively low
and stable with high mortality and high birth rates. The Industrial Revolution brought improved
agriculture practices, better nutrition and better medical knowledge so that birth rates became high
and death rates low (similarly to the present situations in developing countries. This allowed the
population to growth very rapidly).As the economy improved, having a large family became less
important, so the birth rate fell. Finally the population size stabilized at all ages. This change in
human population from having a high birth rates and high death rates to having low birth rates and
low death rates is called DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION.

Demorgraphy is derived from the greek words ‘demos’ (people) and ‘graphos’ (to write or
measure). It encompasses vital statistics about people, such as births, deaths and where people live
as well as total population size.
POPULATION TRENDS IN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING
NATIONS

A country is deemed to be developing or developed mainly on the basis of economics, per capita
income, industrialization, literacy rate, living standards etc.

A developed country has a highly developed economy and advanced technological infrastructure
relative to other less developed nations.

Generalized characteristics of developed countries:

 Post-industrial economies

 High level of industrial development

 High level of affluent citizens

 Low levels of unemployment

 Higher education rates

 Technological advantages

 Better roads

 Stable governments

 Good health care

 Human and natural resources are fully utilized

 High level of per capita income

 High Human Development Index (HDI)

 Increased life expectancy
 Low birth rates
 Low death rates
 Good housing conditions
 Safe water supplies
 Abundant food supplies
 Easy to access advanced medical services

Generalized characteristics of developing countries:

 In the process of industrialization

 Low level of affluent citizens

 Higher levels of unemployment
 Lower education rates
 Often contain undeveloped rural villages
 Unstable governments
 High level of birth rates
 High level of death rates
 High infant mortality rate
 Dirty, unreliable water supplies
 Poor housing conditions
 Poor nutrition
 Diets that are short in calories and/or protein
 Poor access to medical services
 Endemic disease in some countries
 Low to medium standard of living
 Limited technological capacity
 Unequal distribution of income
 Factors of production are not fully utilized

NOTE: Only about 20% of the population lives in the more Developed or Riches countries in
the world. 4 out of 5 humans live in the poorer countries or the Less Developed countries in the
world. Demographers estimated that if current growth rate of 1.4% approx. per year persist, the
population is expected to double in 50 years. 90% of the population growth expected to occur in
the next century will take place in the developing world or third world. Most of this growth is
expected to occur in Less Developed Countries such as Asia, Africa and Latin America.
CONTENT 5 Interpret demographic tables, graphs and charts.
Let us recap some of our demographic terms:-
AGE AND SEX STRUCTURES - Age and sex structures refers to the number of individuals in the
population at each age level as well as their sex. If many individuals in the
population are below the age of 15 years, there will be the potential for the
population to grow rapidly unless death rates rise SHARPLY.

FERTILITY RATES - Fertility rate refers to the number of children born to a woman in a
population during her entire reproductive life time (usually considered to
be between 15 to 45 years).

TOTAL TERTILITY RATE: - Total fertility rate refers to the AVERAGE number of children born to each
woman during her reproductive life time.

FACTORS THAT INFLUENCES TOTAL FERTILITY RATES AND

POPULTION GROWTH RATE.
MORTALITY OR DEATH RATE

CRUDE DEATH RATE – is the number of deaths is the number of deaths per 1000 of the
population per year.

NATALITY OR BIRTH RATE

CRUDE BIRTH RATE –is the number of LIVE births in a year per 1000 persons.

(Crude in this sense means that it is not adjusted for population characteristics such as the number
of women in their reproductive years. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just
replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved).

FACTORS AFFECTING BIRTH RATES:-

 Age structure
 Infant mortality
 Child labour
 Social services
  Culture and Religion
 Economy (value of children) – benefit of having children – to use as child labour and for
retirement insurance, to win awards for having the most children
 Age of Marriage (first birth)
 Urbanisation
 Status and Education level of women
 Family planning methods
 Government policies (China restricts birth, Canada promotes birth)

FACTORS AFFECTING DEATH RATES:-

 Nutrition/Food – quality and quantity, diet and life style

 Sanitation – disease control methods
 Potable water access
 Medical care systems
 Natural disasters
 Genocide
 War
 Age structure
 Diseases

POPULATION PYRAMIDS

These changes in birth rates mean that the population structures may be very different in different
countries. The statistical study of the size and structure of population (e.g. the age and sex
distribution in the population) and the changes within them is called DEMOGRAPHY.

Demography trends can be shown in special diagrams called population pyramids or population
profiles.
CONTENT 6 CALCULATE CHANGES IN DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS

The following are equations used to calculate changes in demographic characteristics:

1. To calculate BIRTH RATE = # of Live Births
----------------------- X 1000
Total Population

2. To calculate DEATH RATE = # of Deaths

-------------------------- X 1000
Total Population

3. To calculate FERTILITY RATE = Number of Births

-------------------------- X 1000
Number of women age 15-45

4. To calculate
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE = # of births to women in a particular age

----------------------------------------------- X 1000
 # of women in that particular age

5. To calculate
MIGRATION RATE = # of Immigrants - # of Emigrants
---------------------------------------- X 1000
Total Population
6. To calculate
POPULATION GROWTH RATE = (birth – death) +/- net migration
---------------------------------------- X 100
Total Population
Now - Population growth rate is given as the net increase in a country’s
population during a period of time and expressed as a percentage of the
population at the start of the period.

7. % Annual increase in population = Present population – Initial population

(Annual growth rate) --------------------------- X 100
Initial Population

NOTE:
Population Growth Rate = Total population – Initial population
------------------------------
Total population
 8. To calculate POPULATION SIZE = Initial population + Change in population size.

9. To calculate POPULATION = BIRTH + DEATH

10. To calculate POPULATION CHANGE = BIRTH + IMMIGRATION – DEATH + EMIGRATION

11. To calculate DOUBLING TIME = 70

------------- ------------------
Annual growth rate (r)

12. To calculate NATURAL INCREASE = BIRTH RATE - DEATH RATE

13. CHANGE IN POPULATION SIZE = average annual growth rate X time period X initial population
size

EXAMPLE 1

Table 1 below, presents population data for country A for three years, 1995, 1996 and 1997. At the beginning of
1995, the population numbered 2,500,000. The data in table 1 represents changes in the population at the end of
each of the three years.

Population Parameters Year

1995 1996 1997
Number of births 60,200 59,720 59,220
Number of deaths 10,000 8,500 7,000
 Number immigrated 300 400 300
Number emigrated 500 620 500
Population at end of year 2,653,020

1. Calculate the population size at the end of 1995

Working

Population change = (birth + immigration) – (death + emigration)

= (60,200 + 300) – (10,000 + 500)

= (60,500 – 10,500)

= 50,000

Therefore,

Population at the start of 1995 = 2,500,000

Thus,

Population at the end of 1995 = 2,500,000 + 50,000 = 2,550,000.

Population size at the end of 1995 = 2,550,000

2. Calculate the birth rate of the population at the start of the 3 year period.

Working
Birth rate = # of life births 60,200

---------------------------- = ------------ = 0.024

Total population 2,500,000

3. Calculate the rate of natural increase of the population for 1995

Working

Rate of natural increase = birth rate – death rate

= 0.024 – 0.004

= 0.02

4. Calculate total population increase of Country A for the three years.

Working
Total population increase = total population in 1997 – total population in 1995
= 2,653,202 – 103,020
= 103,020

EXAMPLE 2

The population of Guyana was 759,000 and 795,000 in 1980 and 1990 respectively.
Calculate
i. The average annual percentage growth rate of the population during the period 1980 to
1990.
Working
Average annual increase per year = 795,000 – 759,000 36,000
---------------------------------- = ----------- = 3,600
1990 -1980 10

Therefore avg. annual growth rate = present population – initial population

---------------------------------------------- x 100
Initial population
3,600
= ---------------------- x 100 = 0.474 %
759,000

ii. The doubling time of the population of Guyana

Working
Doubling time = 70 70
----------------------------- = ----------------- = 148 years
Avg. annual growth rate 0.474

iii. The expected size of the population of Guyana in 2002

Working

Time period = 2002 – 1980 = 22 years

Change in pop. Size = avg. annual growth rate x time period x initial pop.

= 0.47% x 22 x 759,000

= 78,480

Therefore population size = initial population + change in population size

= 759,000 + 78,480

= 837,480

EXERCISE ACTIVITY 1

Given a population of 250,000 in the year 2000 and a population of 255,000 in the year 2001,
calculate,

i. The population growth rate as a percentage annual increase

ii. The time in years that it would take for the population to double
iii. The size of the population in 2035 assuming that the population growth rate is constant.
CONTENT 7

ASSESS THE FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION GROWTH RATE

Now class, how will a population grow?

 If a population has a large % of women of child bearing age, the population will tend to
increase.
 If many individuals in the population are below the age of 15 years, there will be the potential
for the population to grow rapidly unless death rates rise sharply.
 If the fertility rate of the population is greater than the replacement rate of 2, the population
will have the potential to grow.
 When the rate at which people move into a population is greater than the rate at which they
move out, the population will tend to grow.

THE Factors that constraint the efforts for a population to grow:

ii. CULTURAL NORMS - this refers to the values and norms of a society. A couple
is expected to have the numbers of children that are determined by the traditions
of their society. In many cultures, high fertility rates are traditional and encourage
high population growth rates.

iii. RELIGIOUS BELIEFS - in many countries, one’s religion support large families
and strongly opposes abortions and some forms of birth control methods.
iv. LEVEL and COST OF EDUCATION – improved educational opportunities has
enabled more individuals to be aware of and use family planning services, to have
better jobs, earn more to provide basic necessities, to be more aware of health and
nutrition issues. In developing countries, educational opportunities especially for
women have had a significant impact on their fertility rates. Education increases
the probability that women will know how to improve the health of their families
and control their fertility, decreasing infant and child mortality. It also increases
women option with regards to career and ways of achieving status other than by
having babies. More educated women tend to marry later and have fewer children.
Education changes a women’s lifetime aspiration opening the doors to other ways
of achieving status besides having babies.
Greater educational opportunities decrease fertility rates and population growth
rates.

IV. SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC STATUS OF WOMEN – women do not have

economic rights or social status. Laws, customs and lack of education limit them to
low skilled and low paying jobs. Marriage is the only way for them to achieve
social influence and economic status. So when women have access to education
and paying jobs live in societies in which their individual rights are not suppressed
they tend to have fewer and healthier children. By promoting the rights of women
and the opportunity to become educated and to earn an income, the government
can help to slow population growth.

V. ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE – better medical knowledge and improved

healthcare especially in developed countries has enabled more women to survive
child bearing and childbirth, more infants to survive (lower infant mortality rate),
more adults to survive (increase in ageing population) an more individuals to
survive diseases.

v. Marriage age - fertility rate is affected by the average age at which women
marry.

- This age is determined by customs of society in which women live.

- The lower the marry age, the more children the woman is likely to bear in
her life time.
 - The lower the marriage age, the higher the rate of growth of the
population.

vi. Family planning services – provide information on reproductive physiology and

contraceptive devices

- Allow those who wish to control the number of children’s births.

- Allow women to control her fertility and is linked to lower fertility rates.

(If fertility rate of the population is greater than the replacement rate of 2 the population will have
a potential to grow).

V. AVAILABILTY OF PENSION SCHEMES –

VI. Level of AFFLUENCE -

VII. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT – produces affluent societies decreasing

population growth rate.
CONTENT 8

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF POPULATION CONTROL METHODS AND

MEASURES
Population Control Measures

Population control measures can be direct or indirect.

i. Direct Population Control Measures –

FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMMES - these provide education and clinical services

that help couples to choose how many
children to have and when to have them.
- people access to contraceptive methods at an
affordable price promotes and encourages the
use of contraceptives and hence controls
population growth rate.

ECONOMIC REWARDS AND PENALTIES/GOVERNMENT POLICIES – offering

rewards in the form of payments, extra foods,
larger pensions, better housing, free medical
care to couples who pledge to have a certain
number of children or to be sterilized or to
agree to use better contraceptives. Existing tax
structure in some countries includes
allowances based on family size may affect
fertility because; people may choose to have
more children or fewer children to benefit
from these government incentives.
Government policies can also determine the
availability of family planning services, health
care, pension schemes which all affect family
size. Also government policies can make
access to education easier for all thus delaying
 child bearing and the start of families. This
impacts fertility rates and can lead to decreases
in population growth.
ii. Indirect Population Control Measures –

NATURAL DISASTER -