Bailey Wang

Professor Gupta
STA141
5/21/18
Homework 3

This heatmap shows that the majority for all dice will land on spot 10 (jail) the most. This
is due to the fact that there are many outside factors attributing to that jail. There are seven more
spots that affect the possibility of landing on jail. The Community chest and Chance locations
has a chance of moving the player to jail (1/16 for both). Not only that, but also the dice has a
chance of sending the player to jail by rolling the same number on the dice three times (also
known as doubles).

1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1,1) (2,1) (3,1) (4,1) (5,1) (6,1)
2 (1,2) (2,2) (3,2) (4,2) (5,2) (6,2)
3 (1,3) (2,3) (3,3) (4,3) (5,3) (6,3)
4 (1,4) (2,4) (3,4) (4,4) (5,4) (6,4)
5 (1,5) (2,5) (3,5) (4,5) (5,5) (6,5)
6 (1,6) (2,6) (3,6) (4,6) (5,6) (6,6)

From the table above, there is a 6/36 chance of rolling a double. However, rolling a
double three times would be roughly .46% of the time. However, it is still likely to go to jail by
rolling a double.
 For the 6-sided dice, the three most common spots to land on at the end of the turn will be
10, 26 and a tie between 22 and 38. As stated before, ending a turn in jail is the most common
due to having the most amount of ways to end there. Here is a side by side comparison of the
dices. It also shows that the most common spot will be jail as well.
The standard error is .002 which is inversely proportional to the large sample that is being
tested. The smaller the standard error, it will approach the real value. The variability is
consistent, since this test was ran 1000 times to determine the standard error. Thus, a larger
standard error would show a great amount of inconsistency.

​
 ​From the simulations, it appears that the purple locations seem to be most effective with
hotels when the player is purple. The purple location has the smallest spread. The purple
locations are able to receive revenue, despite losing money to other locations. The green
locations appear to be the least effective with hotels when the player is green. The green location
has the largest spread.

data1=read.csv("~/Desktop/RStudio/Data141a/color_combos.csv")
data2=read.csv("~/Desktop/RStudio/Data141a/properties.csv")
#Command,shift,c

simulate_monopoly=function(n,d){
location=numeric(n+1)
location[1]=0
#Create a vector for location
communitychest_location=c(2,17,33)
chance_location=c(7,22,36)

communitychest=sample(1:16)
communityindex=c(1:16)
#Create the community chest deck
chance=sample(1:16)
chanceindex=c(1:16)
#Create the chance deck
tax=c(4,38)
utilty=c(12,28)
jail=10

railroad=c(5,15,25,35)

roll1=sample(1:d, n, replace=TRUE)
roll2=sample(1:d, n, replace=TRUE)
#Create dice rolls
for(i in 1:n){
doublecount=0
if(roll1[i]==roll2[i]){
doublecount=doublecount+1
}
else if(roll1[i] != roll2[i]){
doublecount=0
}
if(doublecount == 3){
location[i+1]=10
doublecount=0
}
location[i+1]=(location[i]+roll1[i]+roll2[i]) %% 40

if(location[i]==30){
location[i]=10
next}
#if(location[i]==30) {print("move")}
}
#When the two dices equal each other in value, increase the double count
#When the double count reachs three, the player is sent to jail, and return double count to zero
#Otherwise, when the dices are not equal, the double count value is returned to zero

if(location[i+1] %in% communitychest_location){

if(communitychest[communityindex==1]) {location[i+1]= 0}
if(communitychest[communityindex==2]) {location[i+1]= 10}
communitychest=c(communitychest[-1],communitychest[1])
}
#When the community chest has the card index 1 drawn, the player is sent to go spot
#As well, when the card index 2 is drawn, the player is sent to jail
#Last equation updates the deck after a card is pulled, then it is sent to the bottom of the deck

if(location[i+1] %in% chance_location){

if(chance[chanceindex==1]) {location[i+1]= 0}
if(chance[chanceindex==2]) {location[i+1]= 10}
if(chance[chanceindex==3]) {location[i+1]= 2}
if(chance[chanceindex==4]) {location[i+1]= 24}
if(chance[chanceindex==5]) {location[i+1]= 39}
if(chance[chanceindex==6]) {location[i+1]= 5}
if(chance[chanceindex==7])
{if(location[i+1] < 5 && location[i+1] > 35) {location[i+1] = 5}
else if(location[i+1] < 15 && location[i+1] > 5) {location[i+1] = 15}
else if(location[i+1] < 25 && location[i+1] > 15) {location[i+1] = 25}
else if(location[i+1] < 35 && location[i+1] > 25) {location[i+1] = 35}
}
if(chance[chanceindex==8])
{if(location[i+1] < 5 && location[i+1] > 35) {location[i+1] = 5}
else if(location[i+1] < 15 && location[i+1] > 5) {location[i+1] = 15}
else if(location[i+1] < 25 && location[i+1] > 15) {location[i+1] = 25}
 if(chance[chanceindex==8])
{if(location[i+1] < 5 && location[i+1] > 35) {location[i+1] = 5}
else if(location[i+1] < 15 && location[i+1] > 5) {location[i+1] = 15}
else if(location[i+1] < 25 && location[i+1] > 15) {location[i+1] = 25}
else if(location[i+1] < 35 && location[i+1] > 25) {location[i+1] = 35}
}
if(chance[chanceindex==9])
{
#print("test1")
if(location[i+1] < 12 | location[i+1] > 28)
{
location[i+1] = 12
#print("test2")
}
else
location[i+1] = 28
}
if(chance[chanceindex==10]) {location[i+1]=location[i+1] - 3}
chance=c(chance[-1],chance[1])
}
#Similar to the Commmunity chest deck
#To account for the railroad, the location is checked within the range and then moved after
#Similar to railroad is done on the ulity

#return(factor(location, 0:39))
location
}
#http://stat.ethz.ch/R-manual/R-patched/library/base/html/Paren.html
#https://stackoverflow.com/questions/12614953/how-to-create-a-numeric-vector-of-zero-length-in-r

estimate_monopoly=function(n,d){
tablesim=as.data.frame(table(simulate_monopoly(n,d)) )
tablesim$Freq=tablesim$Freq/n
tablesim
}
#The estimate monopoly calls the simular monopoly function
#The data is chanced into a data.frame and calling the freq from the data frame and dividing from the whole number

tablesim2=as.data.frame(table(simulate_monopoly(10000,2)))
names(tablesim2)=c("location","Freq")
tablesim2$Freq3=estimate_monopoly(10000,3)$Freq
tablesim2$Freq4=estimate_monopoly(10000,4)$Freq
tablesim2$Freq5=estimate_monopoly(10000,5)$Freq
tablesim2$Freq6=estimate_monopoly(10000,6)$Freq
#Use estimate monopoly and change the d(number of dice sides)

plot(tablesim2$Freq3,type="n",xlab="location",ylab="Freq",xaxt="n", main="Location vs Freq")

lines(tablesim2$Freq3, col="red")
lines(tablesim2$Freq4, col="green")
lines(tablesim2$Freq5, col="orange")
lines(tablesim2$Freq6, col="purple")
legend("topright", c("3-sided dice","4-sided dice","5-sided dice","6-sided dice"), col=c("red","green","orange","purple"))
axis(side = 1,at=tablesim2$location, labels=tablesim2$location, cex.axis=.4)

#Plot the line plot, however, the plot is hard to distringuish.

matrix=t(cbind(tablesim2$Freq3,tablesim2$Freq4,tablesim2$Freq5,tablesim2$Freq6))
library(fields)
image(matrix, axes=FALSE, main="Distribution for Locations")
mtext(text=c(paste("",0:39)), side=2, outer=FALSE, line=0.3, at=seq(0,1,0.025641), las=1, cex=0.8)
mtext(text=c(paste(3:6,"sided")), side=1, line=0.3, at=seq(0,1,0.3), las=1, cex=0.8)
par(new=T)
image.plot(matrix, legend.only=FALSE, axes=FALSE, main="Distribution for Locations")

#Plot heatmap to better represent the data

#Colobrated with Linlin Liu

#https://stackoverflow.com/questions/12895783/r-language-mtext-not-working-with-image-
#plot-array

#https://stackoverflow.com/questions/4785657/r-how-to-draw-an-empty-plot
#https://stackoverflow.com/questions/11775692/how-to-specify-the-actual
#-x-axis-values-to-plot-as-x-axis-ticks-in-r

jailsd = replicate(1000,estimate_monopoly(10000,6)[11,2])
sd(jailsd)

#Create multiple estimate monopoly with replicate then find the standard deviation of them all

simulate_monopoly2=function(n,d,data,rent){
location=numeric(n+1)
location[1]=0
#Create vector
money=numeric(n+1)
money[1] = 0
#Create vector
communitychest_location=c(2,17,33)
chance_location=c(7,22,36)
#Create locations for community chest and chance
communitycard=c(0,10,rep(NA,14))
#Create vector
communitychest_location=c(2,17,33)
chance_location=c(7,22,36)
#Create locations for community chest and chance
communitycard=c(0,10,rep(NA,14))
communitychest=sample(communitycard)
#Create the Community Chest deck and shuffle
chancecard=c(0,10,11,24,39,5,-1,-1,-2,-3,rep(NA,6))
chance=sample(chancecard)
#Create the Chance deck and shuffle
tax=c(4,38)
utilty=c(12,28)
jail=10

railroad=c(5,15,25,35)

roll1=sample(1:d, n, replace=TRUE)
roll2=sample(1:d, n, replace=TRUE)
#Create dices
for(i in 1:n){
doublecount=0
if(roll1[i]==roll2[i]){
doublecount=doublecount+1
}
else if(roll1[i] != roll2[i]){
doublecount=0
}
if(doublecount == 3){
location[i+1]=10
doublecount=0
}

location[i+1]=(location[i]+roll1[i]+roll2[i]) %% 40

if(location[i+1]==30){
location[i+1]=10
}
#if(location[i]==30) {print("move")}

#When the two dices equal each other in value, increase the double count
#When the double count reachs three, the player is sent to jail, and return double count to zero
#Otherwise, when the dices are not equal, the double count value is returned to zero

if(location[i+1] %in% communitychest_location){

communitycard=communitychest[1]
if(!is.na(communitycard)){
location[i+1]=communitycard
}
communitychest=c(communitychest[-1],communitychest[1])
}
#When the deck is drawing cards, the location will move as long as the card is not "NA"
#When the card is pulled, the location will move to that index, when "10" is pulled from the deck, the location will be 10

if(location[i+1] %in% chance_location){

chancecard=chance[1]
chance=c(chance[-1],chance[1])
if(!is.na(chancecard) ){
if(chancecard == 0 | chancecard == 5 | chancecard == 10 |
chancecard == 11 | chancecard == 24 | chancecard == 39){
location[i+1]=chancecard
#print('ClearV')
}
if(chancecard == -1){
rr=function(location){
railroad=seq(5,45,10)
location2=min(railroad[railroad>location%%40])%%40
return(location2)
}
location[i+1]=rr(location[i+1])
#print('Clearb')
}
if(chancecard == -2){
uu=function(location){
ulity=c(12,28,52)
location3=min(ulity[ulity>location%%40])%%40
return(location3)
}
location[i+1]=uu(location[i+1])
#print('Clearz')
}
if(chancecard == -3){
location[i+1]=location[i+1]-3
#print('Clears')
}
}
}
#Similar to the Community Chest, when the card is drawn, the location will move to that index
#When "-1" is pulled, the location will move to the minimum location after taking a modulo
#Similar is done with ulity
#When "-3" is drawn the equation just moves the player back 3 spots.

if(location[i+1] %in% property){

#print('Check')
#Rent_current = data$Rent[match(location[i+1],data$Index)]
index = which(location[i+1] == property)
money[i+1]= money[i]-rent[index]
#money[i+1] = money[i]- Rent_current
# cat("data index",location[i+1],"\n")
# cat("Rent_current",Rent_current,"\n")
}
#When the location is on the specific color location, the money is loss depending on the rent
 # cat("data index",location[i+1],"\n")
# cat("Rent_current",Rent_current,"\n")
}
#When the location is on the specific color location, the money is loss depending on the rent

#Colobrated with Huong Vu

if(location[i+1] == 4){
money[i+1] = money[i]
}
if(location[i+1] == 38){
money[i+1] = money[i]-100
}
if(location[i+1] + roll1[i]+roll2[i] > 39){
money[i+1] =money[i]+200
}
}
#When the player lands on ulity, player will lose either 200 or 100 depending on the spot
#When the player passes "GO", they will gain 200, but will not gain money if they pass using a card or is sent to jail

#return(factor(location, 0:39))
return(cbind(location,money))
}

temporarymoney=function(data,co){
#data = data2; co = 'Pink'
df=subset(data ,data$Color==co)
dff=simulate_monopoly2(100,6, df)
money2=sum(dff[[2]])
return(money2)
}

property = which(data2$Color == "Purple")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Purple")]
colorpurple=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Light Blue")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Light Blue")]
colorlblue=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Pink")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Pink")]
colorpink=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Orange")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Orange")]
colororange=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Red")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Red")]
colorred=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Yellow")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Yellow")]
coloryellow=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Green")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Green")]
colorgreen=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

property = which(data2$Color == "Blue")

rent = data2$Rent[which(data2$Color == "Blue")]
colorblue=replicate(1000,sum(simulate_monopoly2(100,6,property,rent)[,2]))

colorsd1=cbind(colorpurple,colorlblue,colorpink,colororange,colorred,coloryellow,colorgreen,colorblue)
boxplot(colorsd1, xaxt="n",lab = "Money", xlab= "color",
col = c("purple"," sky blue","pink","orange","red","yellow","green","blue"),
main = "Boxplot of Money Distribution")

#Call the color's index and the rent

#When using with the simulate monopoly 2 function, it will return only the specific color's rent
#Then plot the boxplot

#Colobrated with Linlin Liu

#http://r.789695.n4.nabble.com/splitting-matrices-td4654535.html

head(sort(c(colorsd1[,1],colorsd1[,2],colorsd1[,3],colorsd1[,4],colorsd1[,5],colorsd1[,6],colorsd1[,7],colorsd1[,8])))
tail(sort(c(colorsd1[,1],colorsd1[,2],colorsd1[,3],colorsd1[,4],colorsd1[,5],colorsd1[,6],colorsd1[,7],colorsd1[,8])))

lines(density(colorsd1[,1]),col="purple")
lines(density(colorsd1[,2]),col="sky blue")
lines(density(colorsd1[,3]), col ="pink")
lines(density(colorsd1[,4]), col="orange")
lines(density(colorsd1[,5]), col="red")
lines(density(colorsd1[,6]), col="yellow")
​
lines(density(colorsd1 ​
[,7]), col="green")
lines(density(colorsd1[,8]), ​
lines(density(colorsd1 ​
[,7]), col="green")
lines(density(colorsd1[,8]), ​
col="blue")

plot(density(colorsd1[,1]),col="purple",xlab="Money",ylab="Freq", xlim=c(-24775,8100),
main="Density plot of Money Distribution")

#Plot density plot