CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON HEALTH, AGRICULTURE AND BIODIVERSITY

Overview

 Climate Change, Greenhouse Effect, and Global Warming Defined

 Greenhouse gases

 Evidence of global warming

 Impact(s) of climate change

 Impact on health

CLIMATE CHANGE

 refers to any distinct change in measures of climate lasting for a long period of time, including
major changes in temperature, rainfall, snow, or wind patterns lasting for decades or longer.

Climate change may result from

• natural factors, such as changes in the Sun’s energy or slow changes in the Earth’s orbit around
the Sun;

• natural processes within the climate system (e.g., changes in ocean circulation);

• human activities that change the atmosphere’s make-up (e.g, burning fossil fuels) and the land
surface (e.g., cutting down forests, planting trees, building developments in cities and suburbs,
etc.).

GLOBAL WARMING

• is an average increase in temperatures near the Earth’s surface and in the lowest layer of the
atmosphere.

• Increases in temperatures in our Earth’s atmosphere can contribute to changes in global climate
patterns.

• Global warming can be considered part of climate change along with changes in precipitation,
sea level, etc.

GREENHOUSE EFFECT
 • The greenhouse effect is a natural process that sees the Earth's atmosphere insulate the Earth.

• Incoming solar radiation (short-wave radiation) is absorbed at the Earth's surface. The Earth's
climatic system then redistributes this energy around the globe, through atmospheric and
oceanic circulation patterns. Energy is then radiated back from the Earth's surface into the
atmosphere as long-wave radiation

• Over time there is an approximate balance in this incoming (short-wave) and outgoing (long-
wave) radiation. Changes to this balance, such as changes in the amount of radiation received
or lost by the system, or changes to the distribution cycles within the system, can affect climate.

GREENHOUSE GASES

• water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2), occur naturally. human activities are adding large
amounts of: carbon dioxide, methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs),
per fluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6).

• Since 1750, atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased by over 36
percent, 148 percent and 18 percent, respectively.

GLOBAL WARMTH… SO WHAT?

• The heating of the Earth's surface and atmosphere affects these climate variables to produce
extreme weather and climate events.

• Climate change is already being observed in a range of climate variables , such as: temperature,
rainfall, atmospheric moisture, snow cover, land and sea ice, sea level, wind patterns and ocean
circulation patterns.

Major global killers are affected by climate

Each year:

• Weather– related disasters kill over 60,000

• Under nutrition kills 3.5 million

• Diarrhea kills 2.2 million

• Malaria kills 900,000

(WHO, 2003, 2008)

Global warming increases the likelihood it will be hot or very hot and decreases, but does not
eliminate, the likelihood it will be cold or very cold. Source: IPCC, 2007

AGRICULTURE & FORESTRY

• The supply and cost of food may change as farmers and the food industry adapt to new climate
patterns. A small amount of warming coupled with increasing CO2 may benefit certain crops,
plants and forests, although the impacts of vegetation depend also on the availability of water
and nutrients. For warming of more than a few degrees, the effects are expected to become
increasingly negative, especially for vegetation near the warm end of its suitable range.

WATER RESOURCES

• In a warming climate, extreme events like floods and droughts are likely to become more
frequent.

• More frequent floods and droughts will affect water quality and availability.

• Increases in drought in some areas may increase the frequency of water shortages and lead to
more restrictions on water usage.

• An overall increase in precipitation may increase water availability in some regions, but also
create greater flood potential.
ENERGY

• Warmer temperatures may result in higher energy bills for air conditioning in summer, and
lower bills for heating in winter. Energy usage is also connected to water needs. Energy is
needed for irrigation, which will most likely increase due to climate change. Also, energy is
generated by hydropower in some regions, which will also be impacted by changing
precipitation patterns.

COASTS

• If you live along the coast, your home may be impacted by sea level rise and an increase in
storm intensity. Rising seas may contribute to enhanced coastal erosion, coastal flooding, loss of
coastal wetlands, and increased risk of property loss from storm surges.

WILDLIFE

• Warmer temperatures and precipitation changes will likely affect the habitats and migratory
patterns of many types of wildlife.

• The range and distribution of many species will change, and some species that cannot move or
adapt may face extinction.

WHO: Five major health impacts of climate change

• Malnutrition

• Deaths and injuries caused by storms and floods. (Flooding can also be followed by outbreaks of
diseases, such as cholera)

• Water scarcity / contamination (droughts and sudden floods) – increased burden of diarrheal
disease.

• Heat waves – direct increases in morbidity and mortality; indirect effects via increases in
ground-level ozone, contributing to asthma attacks.

• Vector-borne disease – malaria and dengue.

Health impact of climate change

 • Air pollution - a reduction in the cold, calm winter weather associated with winter air pollution
episodes together with reduced emissions of key pollutants including particles, oxides of
nitrogen and sulphurdioxide could lead to a reduction (up to 50%) in the adverse health effects
of winter air pollution.

• A small overall increase in the number of summer ozone episodes coupled with a longer-term
increase in background levels of ozone could cause a rise in the number of premature deaths.

AIR POLLUTION

• Pollution determined by emissions & weather

• Ozone levels dépendent on pollution control

• Air quality decline:

 severity of asthma

• Increases in ozone:

• extra deaths

• hospital admissions

Infectious diseases – foodborne and waterborne diseases

Foodborne diseases

• Likely increase in cases of food poisoning

• incidence dependent on future food hygiene behavior

• evidence confirms the effect of temperature on salmonellosis

• role of temperature in Campylobacter transmission remains uncertain

Waterborne diseases

• Likely increase in cases of Cryptosporidiosis

• Impact of increased temperature on water quality & disinfection

Extremes of temperature - heat-related deaths

 • could increase to around 2,800 cases per year.

• This is likely to be offset by milder winters leading to a fall in cold-related winter deaths of up to
20,000 cases per year.

• Exposure to ultra violet radiation

Likely increases in:

• Sunburn

• Skin cancer

• Possibly cataracts

• Flooding – increased frequency of severe coastal and river floods

• Analysis of more recent river flooding shows that mental health problems are the most
important health impact among flood victims due to experience of personal and economic loss
and stress.

River, Coastal Flooding & Flash Floods

• Few direct deaths

• Food and water safety concerns

• Effects on health and social service delivery

• Full effect in terms of mortality and morbidity not known

 Accidents – drowning, electrical

 Contamination of drinking water

 Rise in waterborne infections

 Exposure to toxic pollutants

 Psychological consequences

 Disruption, injuries & deaths

 Late effects include stress & mental health problems

UV exposure

• Levels of UV radiation reaching the earth’s surface may increase due to sunnier summers

• A decline in cloud cover and ozone depletion (which reduces the capacity of the ozone layer to
absorb UV).

• Predicted an extra 5,000 cases of skin cancer and 2,000 of cataract per year by 2050.

Vector-borne diseases

• Various diseases transmitted by mosquitoes or ticks are climate-sensitive and can increase or
be introduced due to climate change.

• Malaria might be re-established in non-endemic areas.

• Potential emergence of other vector-borne diseases, such as West Nile Fever.

• Outbreaks of malaria likely to be rare

• Possible increase in flies

• Tick borne likely to be more common, but relate to land use/leisure activities rather than
climate change

 Lyme disease – no observed correlation between temperature and incidence

 Tick-borne encephalitis – low chances of occurrence

*(diarrheal disease), midges, fleas, stinging insects

Need to be alert to possibility of emerging infections

• Food poisoning - higher temperatures in summer could cause an estimated 10,000 extra cases
of salmonella infection per year.

• Storms – any increase in the frequency of severe winter storms could lead to an increase in
personal injuries from flying debris and falling trees.
Water-borne disease

• climate change might increase levels of cryptosporidium and campylobacter in water

• Secure sanitation systems should safeguard supplies of drinking water, but possible
contamination of storm water outflows could carry disease into basements and nearby rivers,
affecting the health of residents and river users.

What diseases are the most climate sensitive?

• heat stress

• effects of storms

• air pollution effects

• asthma

• vector-borne diseases

• water-borne diseases

• food-borne diseases

• sexually-transmitted diseases

Health impact of extreme events

Lead to:

• Social disruption

• Homelessness

• Injuries, deaths, disability

• Impacts on food and water supply

• Extreme weather-related events (natural disasters)

Potential Health Benefits

Due to both direct & indirect effects:

• Increased physical activity due to extended warm weather. But, outcomes could be worse due
to extreme heat

• Reduced obesity and road traffic injuries through active transport

 • Possibly healthy eating through adoption of sustainable farming & food policy and diets
containing less animal products

• Reduced respiratory illness by improvements in air quality

• Increased home energy efficiency reducing temperature-related illness

The Challenge of Climate Change:

Adaptation and Mitigation

Mitigation Measures

1. Reduction of activities.

2. New alternatives: technologies, behaviors, sources of energy.

3. Sequestration (capture): forests, soil, ocean, and underground

The need for adaptation

Mitigation will not work. So it is necessary to organize in order to take advantage of the new
opportunities (longer growing season) and avoid some of the negative impacts (extreme weather
variability, drought).