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- Multivariate Analysis IBS
- ESTIMATION OF REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS USING GEOMETRIC MEAN OF SQUARED ERROR FOR SINGLE INDEX LINEAR REGRESSION MOD
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10000

9000

8000

7000

6000

Price

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Weight

This scatter chart indicates there may be a negative linear relationship between weight and price.

Lighter bicycles are generally expected to be more expensive, and this scatter chart is consistent with

what would be expected.

b. The following Excel output provides the estimated regression equation that could be used to estimate

the price (y) given the bicycle weight (x).

c. First we check the conditions necessary for valid inference in regression. The Excel plot of the

residuals and weight follows.

Weight Residual Plot

2000

1000

Residuals

0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

-1000

-2000

Weight

Because we are working with only 10 observations, assessing the conditions necessary for inference

to be valid in regression is extremely difficult. However, this scatter chart does not provide strong

evidence of a violation of the conditions, so we will proceed with our inference.

The p-value associated with the estimated regression parameter b1 is 2.14888E-05. Because this p-

value is less than the 0.05 level of significance, we reject the hypothesis that 1 = 0. We conclude

that there is a relationship between the weight and price of the bicycles, and our best estimate is that

an increase in weight of one pound corresponds to a price decrease of $1439.01. The price of a

racing bicycle is expected to increase as the weight of the bicycle decreases, so this result is

consistent with what is expected.

The estimated regression parameter b0 suggests that when the weight of a bicycle is zero pounds, the

price is $28,818.00. This result is obviously not realistic, but this parameter estimate and the test of

the hypothesis that 0 = 0 are meaningless because the y-intercept has been estimated through

extrapolation (there is no bicycle in the sample data with a weight near zero pounds).

d. The coefficient of determination r2 is 0.8637, so the regression model estimated in part (b) explains

approximately 86% of the variation in the prices of the bicycles in the sample.

a. The scatter chart with hours spent studying as the independent variable follows.

120

100

Total Points Earned

80

60

40

20

0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Hours Spent Studying

This scatter chart indicates there may be a positive linear relationship between hours spent studying

and total points earned. Students who spend more time studying generally earn more points, and this

scatter chart is consistent with what is expected.

b. The following Excel output provides the estimated regression equation showing how total points

earned (y) is related to hours spent studying (x).

c. First we check the conditions necessary for valid inference in regression. The Excel plot of the

residuals and hours spent studying follows.

Hours Spent Studying Residual Plot

20

10

Residuals

0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

-10

-20

Hours Spent Studying

The residuals at each value of hours spent studying appear to have a mean of 0, have similar

variances, and be concentrated around 0. The conditions necessary for inference to be valid in

regression appear to be satisfied, and so we will proceed with our inference.

The p-value associated with the estimated regression parameter b1 is 1.09619E-60. Because this p-

value is less than the 0.01 level of significance, we reject the hypothesis that 1 = 0. We conclude

that there is a relationship between hours spent studying and total points earned, and our best

estimate is that a one hour increase in hours spent studying corresponds to an increase of 0.8014 in

total points earned. This result is consistent with what would be expected.

The estimated regression parameter b0 suggests that when a student spends zero hours studying, the

total points earned by the student is 8.6742. This parameter estimate and the test of the hypothesis

that 0 = 0 are meaningless because the y-intercept has been estimated through extrapolation (there is

no observation in the sample data with hours of studying near zero).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Forecast

(b) 7.0 7.7 9.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.0 9.0

(c) 6.4 7.8 11.0 9.6 10.9 12.2 10.5 10.6 8.4

The actual demand can also vary between 40, 50, 60 and 70 with the probabilities as shown in the table -

e.g. P(demand = 40) is 0.1.

The table then shows the profit or loss - for example, if he chooses to make 70 but demand is only 50, then

he will make a loss of 34

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