Moving Average of Black Plasti

Year Quarter Black Plastic Demand (in 000 lb) Forecasted Value

1 I 2250 -
II 1737 -
III 2412 -
IV 7269 -
2 I 3514 3417
II 2143 3733
III 3459 3834.5
IV 7056 4096.25
3 I 4120 4043
II 2766 4194.5
III 2556 4350.25
IV 8253 4124.5
4 I 5491 4423.75
II 4382 4766.5
III 4315 5170.5
IV 12035 5610.25
5 I 5648 6555.75
II 3696 6595
III 4843 6423.5
IV 13097 6555.5

Exponential Smoothing Method fo

Year Quarter Black Plastic Demand Level

5052.1
1 I 2250 4771.89
II 1737 4468.401
III 2412 4262.7609
IV 7269 4563.38481
2 I 3514 4458.446329
II 2143 4226.9016961
III 3459 4150.11152649
IV 7056 4440.700373841
3 I 4120 4408.6303364569
II 2766 4244.3673028112
 III 2556 4075.5305725301
IV 8253 4493.2775152771
4 I 5491 4593.0497637494
II 4382 4571.9447873744
III 4315 4546.250308637
IV 12035 5295.1252777733
5 I 5648 5330.412749996
II 3696 5166.9714749964
III 4843 5134.5743274967
IV 13097 5930.8168947471

We will be Using Moving Average method for Black Plastic demand as the MAD value is less as compared to Expone
MAD as per Moving average method 2069.453125
MAD as per Exponential smoothing method 2249.7785098061
 erage of Black Plastic demand
Mean Absolute Deviation
Error Absolute Bias Tracking Signal
(MAD)
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
-97 97 97 -97 -1
1590 1590 843.5 1493 1.7700059277
375.5 375.5 687.5 1868.5 2.7178181818
-2959.75 2959.75 1255.5625 -1091.25 -0.869132361
-77 77 1019.85 -1168.25 -1.1455115948
1428.5 1428.5 1087.9583333333 260.25 0.2392095286
1794.25 1794.25 1188.8571428572 2054.5 1.7281302571
-4128.5 4128.5 1556.3125 -2074 -1.3326372435
-1067.25 1067.25 1501.9722222222 -3141.25 -2.0914168408
384.5 384.5 1390.225 -2756.75 -1.9829523998
855.5 855.5 1341.6136363636 -1901.25 -1.4171367587
-6424.75 6424.75 1765.2083333333 -8326 -4.7167237106
907.75 907.75 1699.25 -7418.25 -4.3656024717
2899 2899 1784.9464285714 -4519.25 -2.5318687035
1580.5 1580.5 1771.3166666667 -2938.75 -1.6590765815
-6541.5 6541.5 2069.453125 -9480.25 -4.5810411869

moothing Method for Black Plastic Demand

Mean Absolute
Forecasted Demand Error Absolute Deviation Bias
(MAD)

5052.1 2802.1 2802.1 2802.1 2802.1

4771.89 3034.89 3034.89 2918.495 5836.99
4468.401 2056.401 2056.401 2631.13033333 7893.391
4262.7609 -3006.2391 3006.2391 2724.907525 4887.1519
4563.38481 1049.38481 1049.38481 2389.802982 5936.53671
4458.446329 2315.446329 2315.446329 2377.4102065 8251.983039
4226.9016961 767.9016961 767.9016961 2147.4804193 9019.8847351
4150.11152649 -2905.888474 2905.88847351 2242.28142608 6113.99626159
4440.700373841 320.7003738 320.700373841 2028.77242027 6434.696635431
4408.6303364569 1642.630336 1642.6303364569 1990.15821189 8077.3269718879
 4244.3673028112 1688.367303 1688.3673028112 1962.7226747 9765.6942746991
4075.5305725301 -4177.469427 4177.4694274699 2147.2849041 5588.2248472292
4493.2775152771 -997.7224847 997.7224847229 2058.85702569 4590.5023625063
4593.0497637494 211.0497637 211.0497637494 1926.87079269 4801.5521262557
4571.9447873744 256.9447874 256.9447873744 1815.54239234 5058.4969136301
4546.250308637 -7488.749691 7488.749691363 2170.11784852 -2430.252777733
5295.1252777733 -352.8747222 352.8747222267 2063.22119404 -2783.12749996
5330.412749996 1634.41275 1634.412749996 2039.3985027 -1148.714749964
5166.9714749964 323.971475 323.9714749964 1949.11286966 -824.7432749673
5134.5743274967 -7962.425673 7962.4256725033 2249.77850981 -8787.168947471

MAD value is less as compared to Exponential smoothing method.

Tracking Signal

1
2
3
1.7935111027
2.4841113492
3.4709967243
4.2002174521
2.7266855045
3.1717192974
4.0586356017
 4.975585395
2.602460827
2.2296363007
2.4918910725
2.7862180112
-1.1198713376
-1.3489234736
-0.5632615442
-0.4231377709
-3.9057929077
 Moving Average of Clear Plastic
Year Quarter Clear Plastic Demand Forecasted Value

1 I 3200 -
II 7658 -
III 4420 -
IV 2384 -
2 I 3654 4415.5
II 8680 4529
III 5695 4784.5
IV 1953 5103.25
3 I 4742 4995.5
II 13673 5267.5
III 6640 6515.75
IV 2737 6752
4 I 3486 6948
II 13186 6634
III 5448 6512.25
IV 3485 6214.25
5 I 7728 6401.25
II 16591 7461.75
III 8236 8313
IV 3316 9010

Exponential Smoothing Method for

Year Quarter Clear Plastic Demand Level

6345.6
1 I 3200 6031.04
II 7658 6193.736
III 4420 6016.3624
IV 2384 5653.12616
2 I 3654 5453.213544
II 8680 5775.8921896
III 5695 5767.80297064
IV 1953 5386.322673576
3 I 4742 5321.8904062184
 II 13673 6157.0013655966
III 6640 6205.3012290369
IV 2737 5858.4711061332
4 I 3486 5621.2239955199
II 13186 6377.7015959679
III 5448 6284.7314363711
IV 3485 6004.758292734
5 I 7728 6177.0824634606
II 16591 7218.4742171146
III 8236 7320.2267954031
IV 3316 6919.8041158628

We will be Using Exponential smoothing method for Black Plastic demand as the MAD value is less as compared to
MAD as per Moving average method 3237.875
MAD as per Exponential smoothing method 3153.6295136042
verage of Clear Plastic demand
Mean Absolute Deviation
Error Absolute Bias Tracking Signal
(MAD)
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
- - - - -
761.5 761.5 761.5 761.5 1
-4151 4151 2456.25 -3389.5 -1.3799491094
-910.5 910.5 1941 -4300 -2.2153529109
3150.25 3150.25 2243.3125 -1149.75 -0.5125233332
253.5 253.5 1845.35 -896.25 -0.4856802233
-8405.5 8405.5 2938.7083333333 -9301.75 -3.1652511733
-124.25 124.25 2536.6428571429 -9426 -3.7159350097
4015 4015 2721.4375 -5411 -1.98828744
3462 3462 2803.7222222222 -1949 -0.695147324
-6552 6552 3178.55 -8501 -2.6744899404
1064.25 1064.25 2986.3409090909 -7436.75 -2.4902548726
2729.25 2729.25 2964.9166666667 -4707.5 -1.5877343377
-1326.75 1326.75 2838.9038461539 -6034.25 -2.1255563158
-9129.25 9129.25 3288.2142857143 -15163.5 -4.6114695341
77 77 3074.1333333333 -15086.5 -4.9075620229
5694 5694 3237.875 -9392.5 -2.9008222986

moothing Method for Clear Plastic Demand

Mean
Absolute
Forecasted Demand Error Absolute Bias
Deviation
(MAD)

6345.6 3145.6 3145.6 3145.6 3145.6

6031.04 -1626.96 1626.96 2386.28 1518.64
6193.736 1773.736 1773.736 2182.09867 3292.376
6016.3624 3632.3624 3632.3624 2544.6646 6924.7384
5653.12616 1999.12616 1999.12616 2435.55691 8923.86456
5453.213544 -3226.786456 3226.786456 2567.4285 5697.078104
5775.8921896 80.8921896 80.8921896 2212.20903 5777.9702936
5767.80297064 3814.80297064 3814.80297064 2412.53327 9592.77326424
5386.322673576 644.322673576 644.322673576 2216.06543 10237.095937816
 5321.8904062184 -8351.1095938 8351.1095937816 2829.56984 1885.9863440344
6157.0013655966 -482.9986344 482.9986344034 2616.24519 1402.987709631
6205.3012290369 3468.30122904 3468.3012290369 2687.24986 4871.2889386679
5858.4711061332 2372.47110613 2372.4711061332 2663.03611 7243.7600448011
5621.2239955199 -7564.7760045 7564.7760044801 3013.16039 -321.015959679
6377.7015959679 929.701595968 929.7015959679 2874.26313 608.6856362889
6284.7314363711 2799.73143637 2799.7314363711 2869.6049 3408.41707266
6004.758292734 -1723.2417073 1723.241707266 2802.17177 1685.175365394
6177.0824634606 -10413.917537 10413.9175365394 3225.04654 -8728.7421711454
7218.4742171146 -1017.5257829 1017.5257828855 3108.86124 -9746.2679540309
7320.2267954031 4004.2267954 4004.2267954031 3153.62951 -5742.0411586278

nd as the MAD value is less as compared to Moving Average method.

Tracking Signal

1
0.6364047807
1.5088117005
2.7212774524
3.6639934448
2.2189821832
2.6118554878
3.9762242351
4.6194917395
 0.6665275811
0.5362600247
1.8127413506
2.7201133402
-0.1065379596
0.2117710202
1.1877652805
0.6013818928
-2.7065476627
-3.1349961338
-1.820772267
 Forecating demand for Black Plastic
t Year Quarter Black Plastic Demand (in 1000lb) Deseasonalised Demand Dt
1 1 i 2250 2819.59
2 ii 1737 3046.44
3 iii 2412 3575 3273.29
4 iv 7269 3783.75 3500.14
5 2 i 3514 3965.375 3726.99
6 ii 2143 4069.625 3953.84
7 iii 3459 4118.75 4180.69
8 iv 7056 4272.375 4407.54
9 3 i 4120 4237.375 4634.39
10 ii 2766 4274.125 4861.24
11 iii 2556 4595.125 5088.09
12 iv 8253 4968.5 5314.94
13 4 i 5491 5390.375 5541.79
14 ii 4382 6083 5768.64
15 iii 4315 6575.375 5995.49
16 iv 12035 6509.25 6222.34
17 5 i 5648 6489.5 6449.19
18 ii 3696 6688.25 6676.04
19 iii 4843 6902.89
20 iv 13097 7129.74
21 6 i 7356.59
22 ii 7583.44
23 iii
24 iv
25 7 i
26 ii
27 iii
28 iv
29 8 i
30 ii
31 iii
32 iv

Seasonal Factors p=4

1 0.90 SUMMARY OUTPUT
2 0.60
3 0.70 Regression Statistics
4 1.80 Multiple R 0.95541
R Square 0.91281
Adjusted R Square 0.90659
Standard Error 345.509
Observations 16
ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 14
Total 15

Coefficients
Intercept 2592.75
X Variable 1 226.856

Deseasonalised Demand = 2592.74 + 226.85*t

astic
St Forecast
0.80 2535.63
0.57 1824.46
0.74 2283.38
2.08 6301.35
0.94 3351.65
0.54 2367.89
0.83 2916.36
1.60 7934.96
0.89 4167.66
0.57 2911.31
0.50 3549.35
1.55 9568.56
0.99 4983.68
0.76 3454.74
0.72 4182.33
1.93 11202.17
0.88 5799.69
0.55 3998.17
0.70 4815.31
1.84 12835.77
6615.71
4541.59
5448.30
14469.38
7431.72
5085.02
6081.28
16102.99
8247.74
5628.45
6714.26
17736.59
 SS MS
17497621.06176 17497621
1671269.934329 119376
19168890.99609

Standard Error t Stat

214.8734219756 12.0664
18.7378528402 12.10682

= 2592.74 + 226.85*t
 Forecating demand for Clear Plastic
t Year Quarter Clear Plastic Demand (in 1000lb) Deseasonalized demand Dt
1 1 i 3200 3875.92
2 ii 7658 4139.86
3 iii 4420 4472.25 4403.8
4 iv 2384 4656.75 4667.74
5 2 i 3654 4943.875 4931.68
6 ii 8680 5049.375 5195.62
7 iii 5695 5131.5 5459.56
8 iv 1953 5891.625 5723.5
9 3 i 4742 6633.875 5987.44
10 ii 13673 6850 6251.38
11 iii 6640 6791 6515.32
12 iv 2737 6573.125 6779.26
13 4 i 3486 6363.25 7043.2
14 ii 13186 6307.75 7307.14
15 iii 5448 6931.5 7571.08
16 iv 3485 7887.375 7835.02
17 5 i 7728 8661.5 8098.96
18 ii 16591 8988.875 8362.9
19 iii 8236 8626.84
20 iv 3316 8890.78
21 6 i
22 ii
23 iii
24 iv
25 7 i
26 ii
27 iii
28 iv
29 8 i
30 ii
31 iii
32 iv

Seasonal Factor p=4

1 0.76
2 1.90 SUMMARY OUTPUT
3 0.95
4 0.41 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.93105
R Square 0.86685
Adjusted R Square 0.85734
Standard Error 509.773
Observations 16

ANOVA
df
Regression 1
Residual 14
Total 15

Coefficients
Intercept 3611.98
X Variable 1 263.94

Demand Function = 3611.978

lastic
St Forecast
0.83 2951.64
1.85 7862.48
1.00 4174.99
0.51 1935.68
0.74 3755.64
1.67 9867.60
1.04 5175.90
0.34 2373.49
0.79 4559.64
2.19 11872.71
1.02 6176.80
0.40 2811.31
0.49 5363.63
1.80 13877.83
0.72 7177.71
0.44 3249.13
0.95 6167.63
1.98 15882.94
0.95 8178.61
0.37 3686.94
6971.63
17888.06
9179.52
4124.76
7775.62
19893.17
10180.43
4562.58
8579.62
21898.29
11181.33
5000.39
 SS MS F Significance F
23685916.21352 23685916.21 91.14578 1.65E-07
3638159.043313 259868.5031
27324075.25684

Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
317.0299121016 11.39318002 1.82E-08 2932.017 4291.9403954 2932 4291.94
27.6463221197 9.547029663 1.65E-07 204.6448 323.23572101 204.64 323.2357

Demand Function = 3611.97886+263.94*t