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Brazil Economic
Outlook
4Q18
October 2018
Key messages
The gradual strengthening of domestic demand and the normalization of food prices, among
other factors, will help to drive both inflation and interest rates upwards. Inflation should
converge to 4.9% in 2019, above the 4.25% target for the period, after closing 2018 at
4.5%. In an environment of greater pressures on prices, interest rates would be adjusted
upwards, from 6.5% to 10.0%, throughout 2019
The exchange rate is expected be around 3.8 in the remainder of the year and during 2019,
partly due to the reduction of political uncertainty after the October presidential elections
The next government will likely take measures to reduce fiscal vulnerability, although it will
hardly manage to approve an ambitious social security reform
Índice
01
Global environment:
Positive global inertia continues,
although risks are intensifying
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 5
Dec-18
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Jun-17
Jun-18
Jun-14
Jun-15
Jun-16
Monetary policy continues to normalize; the Fed and the ECB will take
divergent paths from 2019 onwards
0.75
End of QE in Dec-2018 Anchored expectations of
low rates for an extended 0.25
Repayment of TLTROs as before September 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
from June 2020
Forecast (eop) Interest rate (eop)
BBVA index of financial tensions for emerging Emerging markets are under greater
economies stress which translates into a currency
(Index) depreciation and an increase in their
risk premium
6 Argentina
There is differentiation: tensions have
5 been concentrated in particular in the
4 most vulnerable economies. We are
3 Turkey not looking at a systemic crisis in
emerging markets
2
1 The adoption of economic policy
Brazil
0 measures (monetary and fiscal) is
allowing for some stabilization
-1
-2
Dec-07
Dec-09
Dec-17
Dec-08
Dec-10
Dec-11
Dec-12
Dec-13
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Jun-14
Jun-16
Jun-08
Jun-09
Jun-10
Jun-11
Jun-12
Jun-13
Jun-15
Jun-17
Jun-18
Tapper US Current
tantrum China elections episode EM total 16.7%
5%
4% Outflows 2.1%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1% Inflows 14.6%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
Dec-15
Dec-13
Dec-14
Sep-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Jun-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Mar-13
Jun-13
Mar-14
Jun-14
Mar-15
Mar-17
Jun-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Mar-17 / Jun-19
Trade loses momentum after the strength exhibited in 2017, but will
continue to support global growth
5%
Increased volatility of trade flows as a
4% result of uncertainty in some countries..
3%
2% ...especially because of trade tensions,
the political situation and the
1%
depreciation of currencies in emerging
0% economies
1Q13
3Q13
1Q14
3Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
3Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
3Q18
U.S. and China have announced higher tariffs, but with an estimated
limited effect on global GDP
Effect on GDP growth of US tariff increases and the The impact on the growth of the
response by other countries measures adopted so far through the
(2018-20, pp) trade channel could be limited but the
indirect effects could be considerable
0.0 especially for China and emerging
-0.2 economies
-0.4
-0.6 The signing of the USMCA trade
-0.8 agreement reduces uncertainty with
Mexico and Canada, pending its
-1.0
approval
-1.2
World China US Europe
In Europe the increase in tariffs on
Approved, confidence / financial channel automobiles is currently frozen
Approved, trade channel although it will be renegotiated from
Tariffs 25% All Chinese imports November onwards
Approved increase of tariffs: US (25% on steel, 10% on aluminium, 25% on Chinese imports for the value of
US$50 billion and 10% on imports for the value of US$200 billion); China (25% on US imports for the value of
US$50 billion and 10% on imports for the value of US$60 billion)
Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 11
US
Eurozone
2018 2019
2.8 2.8 2018 2019 China
2.0 1.7
2018 2019
Sube
Se mantiene
3.7 3.6
Baja
Global risks: protectionism and the Fed’s exit strategy remain the most
relevant risks but political uncertainty is increasing in Europe
CHINA
Protectionism: on the upside (new tariffs and reprisals) with an impact
on domestic policies (financial stability, reforms)
High indebtedness: more contained in the short-term but higher in the
medium-term (private debt continues to rise)
US CHINA USA
The Fed’s exit strategy: high. Higher-than-expected rate hikes
EZ • Differential impact on emerging markets
Short-term probability
EURO ZONE
Political risk: on the rise, led by tensions in Italy and Brexit
Protectionism: more contained. Focus on the automotive sector
Severity
The ECB’s exit strategy: low
02 Brasil:
A slow recovery ahead
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 14
20%
The fragmentation of the Congress will
be a challenge for governance. The next
10%
president will have to build a coalition of
many parties to pass important
measures and reforms
0%
1st round (results) 2nd round (polls) Google Searches
J. Bolsonaro F. Haddad
(*) Results of the 1st round and polls: proportion of valid votes. In the 1st round the other
candidates together got 25% of the valid votes. The DATAFOLHA poll was conducted on
October 17 and 18. Google searches refer to searches related to the topic "government" made
between October 15 and 22.
Source:TSE, IDATAFOLHA, GoogleTrends, BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 15
Base scenario: the most likely is that a not very ambitious fiscal adjustment is implemented
Markets will leave little space for a less pragmatic economic policy. Thus, whoever is the next president, will be forced to
present a plan to stop the deterioration of public accounts and maintain macroeconomic stability. As the political
environment will remain polarized, and taking into account that Congress will be very fragmented, it will be difficult to
approve an ambitious reform of the pension system (which is key to guarantee the sustainability of the public debt). Most
likely, a decaffeinated reform will be implemented, as well as other measures to increase revenue and reduce public
spending. Building on these assumptions about the policies of the next government, we detail in the next slides our
macroeconomic scenario for Brazil in the coming years.
Positive alternative scenario: A more aggressive reform of the pension system would create the
conditions for greater economic growth
An ambitious pension system reform, i.e. one that ensures the solvency of public debt in the medium and long term, would
generate a significant appreciation of the exchange rate and allow the country to grow above 3% in the coming years,
mainly if other policies and reforms that stimulate the increase of productivity are adopted .
Negative alternative scenario: Not addressing the fiscal problem could generate a new crisis
The lack of concrete measures to curb the fiscal deterioration would have a negative impact on confidence. Also, the
exchange rate would depreciate, increasing the pressure on domestic prices and on interest rates. In such an environment,
a crisis like 2015-16 could not be ruled out.
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 16
1,5
96
1,0
94 0,5
0,0
92
-0,5
90 -1,0
Mar-15
Mar-14
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Dec-14
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Jun-17
Jun-14
Sep-14
Jun-15
Sep-15
Jun-16
Sep-16
Sep-17
Jun-18
-1,5
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Source: IBGE, BBVA Research Source: BBVA Research
GDP growth moderated in the last three quarters (when Financial tensions have increased once again over
average growth was of 0.1% QoQ) after a stronger the last few months . However, in the last few weeks,
expansion in the first three quarters of 2017 (when the tone has been (excessively) positive because of
average growth was of 0.7% QoQ). GDP is currently 6% markets’ increased optimism regarding the political
below the pre-crisis level scenario after the elections
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 17
We revised down our growth forecast: the recovery of the activity will
be even more gradual than expected
2.4 % 2.4 %
(before) (now)
1.6 %
(before) 1.2 %
(now)
1.0 %
The recent moderation of economic activity and We maintain the forecast of 2.4% for 2019, with a
the increase of volatility in financial markets, downward bias. From 2020 onwards GDP growth
amidst increasing political uncertainty, have led would be around 2.0%. A stronger expansion
us to a further downward revision of GDP growth would require the approval of economic reforms,
in 2018 which now seem unlikely
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 18
5,0
2,5
0,0
-2,5
GDP Investment Private consumption Public consumption Exports Imports
We have revised downwards our forecasts for In the coming quarters, GDP growth should
investment, but we still think that it will lead the accelerate somewhat. Specifically, we expect a
process of gradual recovery of the economy in the GDP expansion of around 0.6% QoQ during the
coming quarters. The main driver would be the likely second half of 2018 and also during the next
rebound of confidence after the elections year
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 19
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-14
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
0
Observed (with observed food inflation) 2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Simulated (with food inflation equal to its 2009-16 average) Current forecasts Previous forecasts (Jul/18)
(*) For the simulation of inflation from January 2017 on, observed food
inflation is replaced by the average food inflation in 2009-16 (8.75%).
(*) (f) = Forecasts.
Source: BBVA Research
Source: BBVA Research
Inflation had been at very low levels until recently, ... something that will continue to happen as we
basically due to short-term factors (weak demand, move forward. We foresee, thus, an increase of the
positive effects of weather conditions on food upward pressures on domestic prices in 2019, so
supply, low energy prices...) In recent months these that inflation must be above the 4.25% target for the
factors have stopped contributing so benignly ... period
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 20
16 16
14 14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
0 2
Apr-14
Jul-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
0
2016 2017 2018 (f) 2019 (f)
Nominal interest rates Real interest rates Current forecasts Previous forecasts (Jul/18)
We expect a first rise in SELIC interest rate at the The next government will have the power to change
first monetary policy meeting of 2019 (in the members of the board of the Central Bank of Brazil,
February). Additional adjustments will make the since the institution is not legally independent. Despite
SELIC interest rate to converge to 10% over the the risks, in principle no negative surprises are
next year expected
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 21
Fiscal adjustment measures and greater GDP growth would allow the
primary deficit to fall, but interest payments would remain high
2015
2016
2018 (f)
2019 (f)
2020 (f)
2021 (f)
2022 (f)
2015
2016
2017
2018 (f)
2019 (f)
2020 (f)
2021 (f)
2022 (f)
4,5 3,90
3,80
4,0 3,70
3,60
3,5
3,50
3,40
3,0
3,30
2,5 3,20
3,10
2,0 3,00
Apr-14
Jul-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Apr-16
Jul-16
Apr-17
Jul-17
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-14
Oct-15
Oct-16
Oct-17
Oct-18
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
In the last few weeks, the exchange rate Volatility may return, mainly after the elections, when
appreciated significantly, from around 4.15 to about the economic policy for the next four years will
3.7, largely due to an (excessively?) positive begins to be unveiled. We expect the Brazilian real
perception of the scenario after the elections by (BRL) to float around 3.8 over the forthcoming
the markets quarters
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 24
All in all, Brazil will hardly be able to recover in the coming years the lost
growth
GDP growth: 2003 – 2017 average Even if the expected recovery of activity
(%) materializes, Brazil’s growth will remain
7,0
relatively modest, around 2%
Paraguay
Uruguay
Peru
Brazil
Chile
Developed
Emerging
Mexico
Colombia
productivity
03Brasil:
Forecast table
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 26
Brazil forecasts
(p) Forecast.
Source: BBVA Research
BBVA Research – Brazil Economic Outlook 4Q18 / 27
BBVA-Research
Jorge Sicilia Serrano
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Digital Economy Digital Regulation and Trends United States Argentina
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Global Macroeconomic Scenarios Regulation Mexico Colombia
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Global Financial Markets Financial Systems Turkey, China and Big Data Economic Outlook
Sonsoles Castillo Olga Cerqueira Álvaro Ortiz Hugo Perea
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Long-Term Global Modelling and Analysis Turkey Venezuela
Julián Cubero Álvaro Ortiz Julio Pineda
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