Proceedings of the Ninth International Symposium on River Sedimentation

October 18 – 21, 2004, Yichang, China

HIGHLIGHTS ON HIGH FLOOD EFFECTS ON RIVER NILE

Nahla SADEK, Karima ATTIA, and Ahmed FAHMY
Nile Research Institute, National Water Research Center, E-mail: Nahla_Sadek@hotmail.com
Karima_Attia@hotmail.com and afahmy_nri@hotmail.com

Abstract: The flood is a natural phenomenon defined as relatively high flow or stage in a river markedly
higher than the usual. It occurs often quite frequently in almost all rivers in the world as a result of a variety
of causes. Aswan High Dam (AHD) represents a safeguard for Egypt against high and low floods for more
than thirty years. However, Egypt has experienced many high floods during the past few years; examples of
them were the floods of 1988, 1998 and 2000. In these floods, the Ministry of Water Resources and
Irrigation (MWRI) had to release more discharge downstream the dam to manage the flood and to verify the
dam operation restrictions in terms of (water level upstream the dam in the first of Aug. =175.00 m). These
releases caused many troubles for human properties and habitations especially in the area of encroachment.
In addition, many other side effects on the river behavior, such as aggradations, degradation, bank erosion
and many areas were been subjected to inundation. These releases also, indicate some adverse effects on
free surface drains. The main purpose of this paper is to introduce the main feature of 1998 flood as an
example of high floods. Water surface profiles in critical reaches especially the most downstream reaches
are investigated. The reach located between Assiut and Delta Barrages is selected for this investigation. 1-D
Mathematical model (HEC-RAS) is applied to test the effect of increasing the release downstream AHD by
applying different scenarios. For each scenario, the water level is predicted, its effect on bank erosion, land
inundations, and free drains are analyzed and evaluated. Finally, the study introduces some lessons learned
from this flood as well as some recommendations for new flood strategy to manage and limit flood hazards.
In addition, some protection and mitigation methods to reduce the potential of floods are also produced.

Keywords: River Nile, Flood management, Human intervention, Flood mitigation, Land inundation, Free
surface drain, Mathematical model

1 INTRODUCTION

River Nile is mainly consists of a single channel with a total length of 953.5 km from
downstream AHD to Delta barrage. This channel is divided into four reaches segregated by
four historical barrages. Floods are occurred as a result of flow exceeding the capacity of the
river main channel. In this case the river valleys and mostly floodplains are overtopping and
most probably endanger populations. From the very earliest times, man has sought to reduce
the damaging outcome of floods. Construction of AHD in 1968 has reserved and controlled
the river Nile water to protect Egypt not only from floods but also from drought. The AHD
has already saved Egypt from four cycles of dangerous floods in 1964, 1975, 1988, and 1998.
This give the safety feeling for many people to start to occupy more lands towards the River
and river encroachments have reached its highest degree in the past few years. Therefore, the
process of managing the water release downstream the dam to guarantee deferent
requirements and dam operation rules by releasing more water downstream the dam has
caused many troubles to river encroachments in the floodplain areas. This research highlights
some features of 1998 flood and the effect of passing more water in the most downstream
reach between Assuit and Delta Barrages. Fig. 1 shows the location of the study reach of total
length reached to 408.75 km. This reach experiences many river encroachments in the
floodplains, bank erosion and many areas exposed to inundation during the past high floods.
Adverse effects on some drains on the same reach discharge to Nile are also presented. The
flood hazards are assessed during field reconnaissance conduced by (Nile Research Institute
(NRI) during the time of more releases of 1998 flood.

524
 REACH 4

REACH 3

REACH 2

REACH 1

Fig.1 Location of Study Reach

2 OBJECTIVES

The main objectives of the present study can be summarized as follows:

(1) Ascertain the location and level of any existing activities along the reach especially in
the encroachment area.
(2) Determine the free drains and classify them according to their locations within the
reach.
(3) Using 1-D Model (HEC-RAS) to predict the water surface profiles for the different
discharges may be released.
(4) Evaluate and analyze the effect of the predicted water level on bank erosion,
encroachment activities and free drains.
(5) Acquaint the main feature of 1998 flood and introduce some lessons learned from this
flood in such away to propose a new strategy to manage and to confine flood hazards.
(6) Suggest different alternatives for protection and mitigation methods to minimize the
potential of floods.

3 FEATURES OF 1998’S FLOOD AND FLOODPLAIN ENCROACHMENT DATA

Although 1998 flood (117 milliard at Aswan) was not the highest one but it was a
remarkable flood as the live storage was approximately full upstream AHD (the water level
upstream the dam was about 175m just before starting time of the flood season). Accordingly,
more attentions has been give by the MWRI's staff as a sort of flood management, to avoid
and to limit flood hazards on Egyptian economy, property and the major hydraulic structures.
The MRWI managed this flood by passing some extra discharge more than water demand into
the river downstream AHD in order to attain the maximum water level upstream the dam 182
m (for dam safety consideration). Also, when the water level upstream the dam arrived to 178
m (this level can be changed according to the flood capacity) the excess water is diverted to a
free Toshka spillway then to Toshka depressions according to the capacity of the spillway.
The excess water which passed downstream the dam caused many trouble on land occupation

525
especially in the floodplain area. This area is considered as the area located between two lines
from each side of the river, the first line is the border of the active or main channel specified
for carrying maximum discharges and the second line is the terrace line, which define the top
bank elevation. The area between channel and terrace line is assigned for temporal activities
and permanent activities specified beyond the border of the terrace lines (Attia and Sadek,
2001). Consequently, any permanent activity located between channel and terrace lines are
considered as an encroachment. The floodplain encroachment information was observed by
NRI hydrographic survey team within the duration 22/9/1998 to 30/9/1998 (Attia, 1999).
During this period the recorded discharge downstream Assiut Barrage was amount to 181
mm-3·day-1 which not passed along the reach since thirty years ago see Fig. (2). The number
of encroachment activities recorded by field observation on both bank sides (right and left
banks) through the reach was about 67 and 42 respectively. These activities represent
permanent structures such as houses, pump stations including irrigation, water and electricity.

4 THE 1-D MODEL

HEC-RAS model which is 1-D simulation model is applied to achieve the study objectives.
The model was developed by U.S. Army Crops of engineering, USA in 1998. It is designed
for calculating water surface profiles for steady gradually varied flow. The steady flow system
can handle a full network of channels, a dendrite system, or a single river reach. The basic
computational procedure is based on the solution of one-dimensional energy equation. The effects of
various obstructions such as bridges, weirs, and structures in the floodplain can be considered in the
computations. The steady flow system is designed for application in floodplain management and flood
insurance studies to evaluate flood way encroachments. The required information for running the
program can be grouped under two main parts, geometric and hydrologic data. The geometric data is
composed of 43 cross-sections with different spacing in between. These cross sections were surveyed by
NRI in 1997. While the used hydrologic information is the flow discharges and water level at all
gauging stations along the study reach. The model simulates the longitudinal water level for the different
applied discharges exceeding the maximum released discharge. The simulation is applied to define the
areas that could be exposed to inundation.

Fig. 2 Maximum and Minimum Discharges Downstream Assiut Barrage Since Dam Construction
5 MODEL CALIBRATION AND VERFICATION

Model calibration is the most important step in any physical or mathematical simulation
process to avoid obtaining unrealistic model simulation results. In this study, the model

526
calibration was performed by trial and error to simulate the actual conditions and water levels
for maximum discharge (181 mm3·day-1) with the measured water levels in 1998. The
estimated water levels, which were carried out by the model, were compared with actual
measured water level at all gauging stations along the reach. The Manning's roughness was
adjusted to obtain fair calibration. This roughness ranges between 0.015-0.029 which are
considered relatively wide range. Fig. 3 describes calibration results and this graph shows
good agreement between the computed and measured water profiles. The verification results
were made for maximum discharges 173 mm3·day-1 at 1995 see Fig. 4. The good model
performance can be observed in verification result. Consequently, the model can be used
safely in the prediction runs for different discharge and water level.
48
46
44
42
40
38
Water Level (m)

36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
540 560 580 600 620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960
Distance from Aswan Dam (km.)

W.L.estimate d W.L. me asure d

Fig.3 Model Calibration Results

48
46
44
42
40
38
Water Level (m) (msl)

36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
540 560 580 600 620 640 660 680 700 720 740 760 780 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960
Distance from Aswan Dam (km.)

W.L.e stimate d W.L. me asure d

Fig.4 Model Verification Results

6 FLOODPLAIN ENCROACHMENT ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

The model used to estimate and predict the longitudinal water surface elevation
corresponding to different high discharges, which are proposed in this analysis. These
simulated discharges are (181,190,200,210,300 and 350 mm3·day-1. The effect of different
discharges on the water surface profile and the human intervention through the reach are
evaluated. Fig.s 5 and 6 represent the predicted water levels corresponding to applied
discharges. The two figures also indicated the locations of different structures and activities,
subjected to inundation in the right and left banks. Also, the terrace line is shown in the same
figures. Also, Table 1 illustrates the number of structures inundated for each simulated
discharge along both sides of the river. From the figures and the table it can be concluded that
the number of overtopping structures for the discharge of 210 mm3·day-1 as an example are 40
and 12 structures in the east and west side respectively. While, in case of emergency release,
which is defined as the discharge of 350 mm3·day-1, it is found that all encroachment

527
structures will be exposed to inundation. Photos 1 to 3 show some inundated structure
observed in the field trip of 1998.

Table 1 Evaluation of Submerged Structures for the Different Simulated

Discharges along the Reach
Discharge Number of Submerged Structure
mm3·day-1 East Side West Side
Housing activity Pumping activity Housing activity Pumping activity
Structures Structures Structures Structures
181 8 3 11 1
190 13 6 11 1
200 16 9 11 1
210 18 22 11 1
250 21 36 20 15
300 24 38 21 20
350 27 39 21 21

Fig. 5 Water Levels for Different Simulated Discharges and Corresponding Submerged Structures
in the East Bank

Fig. 6 Water Levels for Different Simulated Discharges and Corresponding Submerged Structures in the West

528
 Photos Show Different Structures Exposed to Inundation in 1998’s flood

7 FREE DRAINS ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

The effects of different simulated discharges on free drains which flow, to the River Nile
and located within the studied reach are evaluated. The drains along the reach were
determined and classified according to their locations (NRI, 2002). The number of drains on
both right and left sides of the river is amount to 8 and 13 drains respectively. Fig. 7 shows
the water surface profile for the different simulated discharges and it also indicates the
maximum water level at the entrance of the drain. Therefore, the safe and unsafe drains can be
determined as the unsafe drains are defined as the ones have backward water at its entrance. It
can be concluded that for simulated discharges of 181, 190, 200 and 210 mm3·day-1, there are
only two drains subjected to backward water inflow. For higher simulated discharges (250,
300 and 350· mm3·day-1), the number of affected drains is increased to reach eleven, nineteen
and twenty one drains respectively along the reach. For these critical drains, some mitigation
works should be implemented in front of each drain before applying these simulated
discharges.

529
 Fig.7 Water Surface Profile for Simulated Discharges and Drain Levels along the Reach

8 FUTURE PROPOSED STRATEGY FOR FLOOD MITIGATION

The current study is proposed some mitigation measure through flood proposed strategy to
limit flood hazards. This strategy segregated to three parts 1- before flood 2-during flood 3-
after flood: the proposed strategy for each part can be summarized as follows:

8.1 Before Flood

• Improvement of flood notification and forecasting system and the system should be
harmonized by riparian countries
• Flood warning information and forecasts should be forwarded and circulated in real
time.
• Develop and design recent flood plain maps to identify flood prone areas.
• Enforcement and legalization should be applied to encroachment.
• Evaluate left and right banks which suffering from erosion in such away as to suggest
the possible flood protection.
• Defining the terrace line border through creation of land use plans, which include
changes to lessen the impact of future disasters and they develop organizational plans
to implement the land use strategies.
• Preparing specification and coding systems for building and activities close to flood
prone and integrated management to utilize the flood water.
• Preparing book information for public to understand their duties during floods.

8.2 During Flood

• Flood information should be available to the public through the media.
• National and local contingency plans to respond to flood hazard.
• Required measurements and field observations should be conducted during floods.
• Media should play a role in the flood event to provide flood information and avoid
sensationalist reporting.

8.3 After Flood

• Evaluating the strategy to update
• Starting required protection works and maintenance

530
• Seeking required budget
• Updating flood database
• verifying the previous forecasting to improve parameters
• Designated flood plains should be saved from any encroachment and development via
human intervention.

9 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This study was carried out to highlight the feature of 1998’s flood and to analyze and
evaluate the effect of passing some simulated discharges along the most downstream reach
located between Assiut and Delta Barrages. The water surface profiles corresponding to each
simulated discharge are predicted using one dimensional model. The levels of some activities
located in the encroachment area are surveyed during the period of passing the discharge of
181 mm3·day-1 in 1998. The activity levels are compared to the predicted water surface
profiles to asses the inundation behind the terrace line (the bank top elevation). The effect of
the simulated discharges on the free drains entrance is also evaluated. The study concluded
that there are some inundations in the encroachment area at the same time of passing 181
mm3·day-1 and more inundation should be occurred if any of the simulated discharge will be
released. It is appeared that the main problem of passing more water downstream the AHD as
a sort of flood management procedure will cause troubles to population occupied more land
towards the river channel. Therefore, some mitigation measures should be applied to decrease
flood hazard and flood strategy should be prepared to minimize flood potential.

REFERENCES

NRI, 2002. Study the effects of the Nile high floods on drains in the Nile River and its branches, Nile Research
Institute
Karima A., Nahla S., 2001, Management lines and land uses for the Nile River between Assuit and Delta
Barrages Water Technology Alexandria

531