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If the individual uncertainty components are independent, the total uncertainty can
be calculated using the relationship below:
𝑁
𝜎 2 = ∑𝑖=1 𝑐𝑖 2 𝜎 2
σ - combined uncertainty
ci - sensitivity
σi - individual uncertainty component
N - number of uncertainty components
Generally, uncertainty coming from the numerical model is the highest, this shows
that proper and accurate numerical modeling of the site is very important in terms
financial risk.
Uncertainty Classes
Vertical Plant
Site Historic Wind Future wind Spatial
Extrapolatio Performance Other
Measurement Resource Variability variation
n & Losses
Model
Uncertainty
UNCERTAINTY OF PHOTOVOLTAIC:
METHODOLOGY:
The uncertainties of the different steps in the modelling chain are classified in two
main groups: uncertainties by Matric, uncertainties in the PV Yield.
1. UNCERTAINTY METRICS:
The term “uncertainty” used in this report refers to the root mean square error
(RMSE) associated with the estimation of a quantity. The RMSE is composed of a
systematic part (MBE, Mean Bias Error) and a non-systematic part (σ, standard
deviation of the error) which represents the random contributions to the error around
the mean value. The definition of these accuracy measures are presented below in
equations (1) to (8), where is the actual quantity,
the estimated one, the average value and the variable n is the number of
samples. The RMSE, MBE and MAE are normalized over the average value “”
and presented as nrmse, nbme and nmae respectively.
Transposition model
Tilted radiation Eh
n plan of PV array
Performance ratio of
System PR
AC energy Eac
delivered
The starting point is the solar resource. It is most generally provided as solar
radiation on a horizontal surface, Eh, expressed in kWh/m2 /day. Photovoltaic
modules are usually not horizontal, but tilted towards the South in order to maximize
the amount of incident solar energy. The amount of solar radiation incident on the
array, Et, can be calculated from Eh using what is called a transposition model.
Finally, the photovoltaic array converts this solar radiation into DC energy, Edc, and
the inverter converts the DC energy into AC energy, Eac, which is sold to the grid.
The efficiencies of these two conversions can be considered separately, but they are
often lumped together in a single number called the Performance Ratio of the system,
PR, which is a non-dimensional number simply defined as: PR = (Eac·G* )/(Et·P* )
where P* is the array rated power under so-called 'standard test conditions' (STC),
expressed in kW, and G* is a reference irradiance equal to 1 kW/m2.
There are Three major aspects of site assessment uncertainty are presented here.
First, a method is presented for combining uncertainty that arises in assessing the
wind resource.
Second, uncertainty in wind turbine power output and energy production is
characterized.
Third, a method for estimating the overall AEP uncertainty when using a Weibull
distribution is presented.
While it is commonly assumed that the uncertainty in the wind resource should be
scaled by a factor between two and three to yield the uncertainty in the AEP,
Wind energy site assessment gauges the potential for a site to produce energy from
wind turbines. When wind energy development is under consideration, a site
assessment is undertaken. Specifically, wind energy site assessment is the process
of evaluating the wind resource at a potential wind turbine or wind farm location,
then estimating the energy production of the proposed project. The wind resource at
a site directly affects the amount of energy that a wind turbine can extract, and
therefore the success of the venture. The quality of the wind resource is primarily
quantified by the mean wind speed at the site, although the turbulence intensity,
probability distribution of the wind speed, and prevailing wind direction are also
important factors. Once the wind resource has been assessed at a site, the expected
annual energy production, AEP, of a selected wind turbine is calculated. This
calculation combines the expected wind resource with the wind turbine(s) power
curve and the expected energy losses in order to estimate how much energy the wind
turbine(s) will actually produce at the site. The AEP will ultimately help determine
the profitability of the undertaking.
The accuracy and precision of the wind resource assessment and AEP calculation
must also be determined when evaluating a potential site. Wind resource assessment
is an uncertain process, and a large number of factors ranging from wind speed
measurement errors to the inherent physical variations in the wind contribute to this
uncertainty. Overall, these various individual sources of error must all be accounted
for to provide an estimate of the total uncertainty of the wind resource. Furthermore,
power curves and energy loss terms are uncertain as well. When the wind resource,
the power curve, and the energy losses are combined to estimate the AEP, the
uncertainties from all the factors contribute to an overall AEP uncertainty. This
uncertainty is critical in estimating the risk associated with the potential venture.
This works aims to provide a method for site assessment uncertainty analysis
founded on a sound mathematical basis. The methods for combining uncertainty
sources in a given calculation rely heavily on the calculation itself. Thus, when
describing the determination of the wind resource uncertainty or the AEP
uncertainty, the actual method for determining the wind resource or the AEP must
be explained as well
AEP
(P75)
AEP Uncertainty
AEP
(P50) Determination
(P90)
AEP
(PXX)
However it is not easy to figure out the uncertainty of a project. Most of the
parameters are estimated, some of them are calculated.
There is no standard yet, but there is one coming, probably in 2018 (IEC 61400-15,
Assessment of Wind Resource, Energy Yield and Site Suitability Input Conditions
for Wind Power Plants)
Horns Rev offshore wind farm with turbines in each other's wake
Uncertainties:
• Wear and tear Surface roughness
• Production tolerances Geometry
Insect contamination Ice formation
Uncertainty Quantification performing multiple simulations:
Pre-processing Post-processing
Computer code
Conclusion
Uncertainty quantification in wind power prediction:
• Uncertainty in wind direction results in 40% reduction of wind farm power output
• Also uncertainty in individual turbines by wear-and-tear and production tolerances
• Increasingly uncertain power production affects electricity grid stability
• Uncertainty quantification is discretization of probability space