Professional Documents
Culture Documents
INSIDE
2017
• Conservative Party
Leadership polling for
The Ontario election that concluded March, just six weeks before the
on June 7, 2018 was different for election campaign.
a number of reasons. The addition Entering the election, Doug Ford
of 17 seats from 107 to 124 was had a commanding lead and looked “Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne with partner Jane Rounthwaite”
by Jason Hargrove is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
the result of redistribution that unbeatable. We had polled the
accounted for population growth PCs at over 50% but we were also
and matched the new federal riding finding evidence that this majority looked like there was an opening for
boundaries in Ontario. was grounded in pure negativity the NDP but our pre-election polling
The Progressive Conservatives towards Kathleen Wynne and the still had them behind the Liberals.
began 2018 with Patrick Brown as Liberals and not anything positive The Liberal platform appeared to
their leader and all polls showing towards the PCs, so much so we take all the oxygen on the left end of
that he would stroll to victory. Then have yet to see any provincial the political spectrum while Andrea
in late January, he resigned amid premier poll so low in terms of Horwath and the NDP was non-
allegations of sexual misconduct favourability ratings. We were also existent. Then a few days before
and launches the PCs into months detecting that Ontario voters were the campaign, things changed,
of turmoil ending with the election still looking for a progressive option voters started taking notice of the
of Doug Ford as their leader in and that they wanted change. That NDP plan and progressives started
Based on our
most recent
numbers, we
would expect to
see a significant
Liberal majority
government re-
elected in 2019.
Based on our most recent
numbers, we would expect to
see a significant Liberal majority
government re-elected in 2019.
A few factors could impact these
numbers and the forecast even
ahead of the 2019 campaign.
7%
in Beauce, the PPC could make gains in in New Brunswick,
the Atlantic region where they sit at 7% and in parts of
in New Brunswick, and in parts of Quebec (6%), Saskatchewan (6%) and
Alberta (7%).
The rise of PPC and the fall of the NDP all point to a very narrow path for Quebec (6%)
the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer in 2019. With 11 months until the Saskatchewan (6%)
election however, and likely one of the most vicious campaigns Canadians Alberta (7%)
have ever experienced expected, all this can change.
the Quebec many of the suburbs located in the 450 area code.
But those leads extended to the centre of Quebec,
Election the Montérégie, Quebec City, and even the Saguenay.
It quickly became apparent that except for a few
pockets of support for Quebec Solidaire in Quebec City,
Sherbrooke, and Rouyn, and for the Parti Quebecois out
in the Gaspé and the far north, the CAQ were going to
sweep to victory.
In addition to our Daily Tracker, we also polled 69 of
the 125 ridings across the Province, many of them on
multiple occasions. This allowed us to zero in on the
Steven Pinkus individual races to see how the closer contests were
doing. This additional polling gave us a much more
accurate idea of how the new legislature was going to
This year Mainstreet brought its Daily Tracker to the look like.
Quebec election campaign for the first time. We did so in The very new and unique concept of the Daily Tracker
conjunction with Group Capital Media; which consists of gave us great notoriety and recognition across Quebec.
six major daily newspapers across the province. One of the stated goals of Group Capital Medias as we
For the first time in Quebec media history, a provincial began our collaboration together was that they wanted
election was tracked on a daily basis beginning several this collective effort to become the “Go To Place” for
days before the actual writs dropped right through until the best and most detailed information during that
election day. Each night Mainstreet surveyed at least campaign. By all accounts we succeeded.
800 randomly selected Quebecers from across the As we approached election day, Mainstreet predicted
province to see how they felt that the CAQ would win a
about the election. We then majority government with
released our numbers daily As we approached election 72 seats in the National
with a three-day rolling total day, Mainstreet predicted that Assembly. The final result
of at least 2,400 people the CAQ would win a majority was 74 CAQ seats.
sampled. Thanks to our We were also being
RDD frames, we were able
government with 72 seats in the constantly cautioned about
to reach a great many more National Assembly. The final the traditional Liberal Ballot
cellular numbers which result was 74 CAQ seats. Box Bump or Prime a l’Urne
also gave us much more as they say in French.
representative sample among younger demographics. Conventional wisdom said that the CAQ lacked the
This allowed us to predict the rise of Quebec Solidaire organizational muscle to get their vote out. As we
long before any other polling company, and to follow their showed, all of those external influences turned out to
growth beyond Montreal into Quebec City, Sherbrooke, be wrong.
and even to Rouyn-Noranda. In the end, we saw two races develop. The CAQ was
From the beginning, despite the closeness in overall poised to unseat the Liberal Party as the Government of
popular support, we could see that the CAQ vote was far Quebec and they succeeded. Quebec Solidaire however
more efficient than that of the Liberals. As we looked at was looking to overtake the Parti Quebecois as the
our daily results from the various regions across Quebec, dominant sovereigntist political force in Quebec, and
we could clearly see that the Liberals had huge leads on they succeeded. So what we saw was a fundamental
the Island of Montreal, especially in the west end. The shift in the electoral paradigm of Quebec politics.
size of those leads however meant that there were a lot It was exciting to observe this shift from such a unique
of unnecessary votes for the Liberals in those regions and close perspective.
Toronto Election—
Did Ford win? “Doug Ford Getting Grilled After a Debate” by Alex Guibord is licensed
under CC BY–SA 2.0
Any politico will have read George Orwell’s seminal shot at the mayor’s chair in this election before the job of
Nineteen Eighty-Four at least once in their lives. The leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario
dystopian story features three super-states; Oceania, became available. The rest, as they say, is history.
Eurasia, and Eastasia in perpetual war with each other. At In the third corner, we have the progressive councillors
the beginning of the novel, Oceania is at war with Eurasia, in Toronto with no real leader (although some are
but in the middle of the novel, the antagonist suddenly touting councillors Josh Matlow and Gord Perks as
becomes Eastasia, which Oceania officials stating options), but determined to thwart the agendas of both
Toronto politics is looking like the same thing. In one Tory and Ford.
corner, we have John Tory, the recently re-elected mayor We get the sense that the next four years in Toronto will
of Toronto, and his allies on council working to build upon be one of the sides saying the very Orwellian phrase;
Tory’s vision and achievements of his first term. “We’re at war with the Premier. We’ve always been at
In the second corner, we have Premier Doug Ford, the war with the Premier” and say the same when the battle
Progressive Conservative government, and his allies shifts to a different antagonist.
on council. The Premeir and the Mayor have had their There will be some progressive who will quibble
differences in the past. Tory defeated Ford in the 2014 with this distinction and argue that Tory and Ford
mayoral election, and that Ford was launching another are ultimately conservatives and belong on the same
“It’s always great to see my friend Jason Kenney!” by Andrew Scheer is licensed under CC BY–SA 2.0
suffer, less likely to say that private companies should
have to pay to pollute the environment, and less likely
to believe that we owe it to future generations to solve
climate change even if it means paying more taxes.
Against that backdrop, it is not surprising to see the
anti-carbon tax rhetoric of Kenney playing well in
Alberta, even though it might the only jurisdiction
where it is playing well. Moreover, our polling has also
shown that optimism about the Canadian economy and
one’s personal finances is lowest in Alberta.
Whether one likes it or not, Alberta is very much a
resource-dependent economy, and given that the
price of oil is dropping tremendously, Albertans are
becoming more worried about the economy. That
usually leads to an electorate that would want change.
The price of oil - and the economic at similar levels of support as they surrounding the UCP’s policies,
pessimism that comes with it - were in 2015. whether Albertans feel good
is something that Notley can’t As it stands, Notley is behind about embracing change, or if this
control but will work against her in thanks to events fully outside of support is based in sheer negativity
this election. her control. It is clear that she and about the NDP or economic
We have also observed that the the NDP are the main progressive pessimism - similar to what we
UCP’s support is roughly the option in Alberta, but peeling of found in Ontario before its election.
same as what the PCs and the support from the other progressive We will be looking at these issues
Wildrose got in the 2015 election. parties will not be enough - she has in our Alberta Daily Tracker,
It is to Kenney’s credit that the to take support from the UCP. which will contain a rolling
UCP support has not bled any We will be doing deeper dives sample of 1000 Albertans,
support to any other parties, but into Alberta in order to try to starting on the day that the
again, we see Notley falling behind understand the nature of the UCP writ drops in Alberta. Please
due to something that she is not support - specifically whether watch our social media
responsible, even if the NDP were there is actually consensus accounts for more information.
matter at all
of our followers know, I have a proud record of
wrote a root and branch calling elections correctly,
review in the aftermath of
that election which made times and we but we feel just as
strongly that the opinions
significant changes to our
methodology. I made a
endeavour to of Canadians outside of
elections matter just as
particular note that our
former methodology was
understand those much as they do during
the writ. As mentioned
structurally unable to reach
Canadians between the
opinions. earlier, we did investigate
what Canadians thought
ages of 18 to 34, and I was particularly happy to see about climate change. We also polled on which religious
that now more respondents from the 18-34 age cohort symbols Quebecers thought should be banned from the
take our surveys. In my report, I said that IVR had a public sphere. And we will spend the months in the lead
limited shelf life, but today I can say that we likely have up to the Alberta election probing the nature of UCP
extended the life of IVR surveys for some years yet. support. These are just some of the things that you can
If I can channel Bob Ross for a moment, another “happy expect from us in 2019.
accident” that I discovered from our work this year is