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Regresi Linear
Proyeksi Penduduk
Tahun X Y X² Y² XY Tahun x Y = a + bx
2003 1 246466 1 60745489156 246466 2003 1 244483
2004 2 250606 4 62803367236 501212 2004 2 251948
2005 3 258550 9 66848102500 775650 2005 3 259413
2006 4 264694 16 70062913636 1058776 2006 4 266878
2007 5 276747 25 76588902009 1383735 2007 5 274343
∑ 15 1297063 55 337048774537 3965839 2008 6 281808
2009 7 289273
Y= Y = a + bx 2010 8 296738
2011 9 304203
(∑Y) (∑X²) - (∑X) (∑XY) (1297063 x 30) - (10 x 2668776) 2012 10 311668
a= = = 237017.60 2013 11 319133
n ∑X² - (∑X)² (5 x 30) - (10)² 2014 12 326598
2015 13 334063
n∑XY - (∑X) (∑Y) (5 x 2778776) - (10 x 1297063) 2016 14 341528
b= = = 7465.00 2017 15 348993
n ∑X² - (∑X)² (5 x 30) - (10)² 2018 16 356458
2019 17 363923
Y= 244482.60 + (7465 x X) 2020 18 371388
2021 19 378853
2022 20 386318
Nilai Korelasi ( r ) 2023 21 393783
n ∑XY - ∑X ∑Y
r=
√ n ∑X² - (∑X)² √ n ∑Y² - (∑Y)²
r= 0.985064
27.06812004 10
log a = - (0.01244) = 5.3763027
5 5
Y= abx
Y= 2378499 x 1.029059x
Nilai Korelasi ( r )
Y= log Y
n ∑XlogY - ∑X ∑logY
r=
√ n ∑X² - (∑X)² √ n ∑logY² - (∑logY)²
r= 0.622022
-0.629787
r= -0.98767
Perbandingan Metoda Proyeksi Regresi Linera dan Non Linear
450000
400000
350000
300000
Jumlah Penduduk (jiwa)
250000 Regresi
Linear
Regresi Non
200000 Linear
Data
150000
100000
50000
0
200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 201 202 202 202
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
Tahun Proyeksi