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HOME Survey

Housing Opportunities and


Market Experience
December 2018

National Association of REALTORS® Research Group


Introduction
The Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) report was created
to monitor consumer sentiment about the housing market. This report covers
core topics that will be tracked on a monthly basis such as views on if now is a
good time to buy or sell a home, the perception of home price changes, perceived
ability to qualify for a mortgage, and the outlook on the U.S. economy.

Additionally, current topical trends are covered in the HOME survey. In Q4 2018,
respondents were asked about family or friend moving into their home, the length
of time the individual moved into home, and if the respondents considered moving
or moved because of the change in household.
On a monthly basis renters and homeowners are asked about their personal
financial outlook which is indexed on a scale of 0 to 100. Data will be reported
not only on ownership status, but by age, income, and type of geographic location.

Additional topics are examined in depth on


http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/ including whether housing as a good
financial investment, whether homeownership is part of the American Dream, and
if renters want to become homeowners.

This HOME survey is released on a quarterly basis.

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Good Time to Buy a
Home
 In the fourth quarter of 2018, 63 percent of people believe that now is a good
time to buy a home, which is consistent with the previous quarter and is the
lowest percent recorded since the collection started in 2015. Thirty-four percent
believe that strongly, and 29 percent believe that moderately.
 Only 37 percent of people believe that now is not a good time to buy a home.
 Across all groups surveyed, the majority feel that now is a good time to buy a
home. Not surprisingly with rapid home price acceleration, those who are
currently renting or living with someone else, as well as half of those who are 34
years of age or younger, believe now is not a good time to buy a home.

Good Time to Buy a Home, Strongly or Moderately


80%
75% 74%
71% 70% 71% 72% 72%
70%
68% 68%
63% 63%
60% 31% 23%
32% 28% 25% 28% 31% 29%
30% 29%
24%
29%

40%

44% 45% 47%


20% 42% 43% 43% 41% 43%
38% 39% 39%
34%

%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018
Strongly Moderately

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Good Time to Buy a
Home
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
A Good 50% 57% 66% 70% 72%
Time
Not a Good 50% 43% 34% 30% 28%
Time

Household $50,000 to More than


Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
A Good Time 58% 65% 64%

Not a Good Time 43% 35% 36%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


A Good Time 65% 66% 70% 46%

Not a Good Time 35% 34% 30% 54%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban


A Good Time 74% 62% 54%

Not a Good Time 26% 38% 46%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone


A Good Time 72% 48% 45%

Not a Good Time 28% 52% 55%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Good Time to Sell a
Home
 Seventy-three percent of people believe that now is a good time to sell a home,
which is the lowest recorded since Q4 of last year. Small declines in the fourth
quarter were also reported in 2016 and 2017.
 Twenty-seven percent believe that now is not a good time to sell a home.
 Those who earn $100,000 or more (79 percent) or live in the Midwest (80
percent) are most likely to think that now is a good time to sell a home.

Now is Good Time To Sell, Strongly or Moderately


100%

80% 77%
75% 74% 75% 73%
69% 71% 71%
63%
61% 62% 27%
60% 30% 29%
56% 29% 28% 32% 32%
30%
26% 27%
40% 29%
28%

50%
42% 45% 43% 42% 46%
20% 37% 39% 41%
32% 35%
28%

%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018

Strongly Moderately
2018 NAR HOME Survey
Good Time to Sell a
Home
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
A Good 71% 72% 72% 76% 75%
Time
Not a Good 29% 28% 28% 24% 25%
Time

Household $50,000 to More than


Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
A Good Time 63% 78% 79%

Not a Good Time 37% 22% 21%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


A Good Time 64% 80% 71% 78%

Not a Good Time 36% 21% 29% 22%

Location:
Rural Suburban Urban
A Good Time 78% 74% 68%

Not a Good Time 22% 26% 32%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone


A Good Time 78% 68% 58%

Not a Good Time 22% 32% 42%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Home Prices in the
Past 12 Months
 Sixty-three percent of people believe that prices have gone up within their
communities in the last 12 months, which is a decrease from Q3 2018 at 70
percent. Thirty percent believe prices have stayed the same and seven percent
believe prices have gone down.
 Those who are in the West, those with incomes over $100,000, and those 45 to
54 years of age are most likely to report that prices have increased in their
communities.

Home Prices in the Last 12 Months In Local


Community
100%
7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 7%
11% 11% 9% 10%

28% 25%
80% 30% 30% 31% 30%
33% 33%
36% 34% 35%
39%
60%

40%
64% 68% 70%
63% 63% 63%
55% 60% 60%
50% 53% 56%
20%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018
Gone Up Stayed the Same Gone Down

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Home Prices in the
Past 12 Months
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Gone Up 59% 61% 68% 66% 63%

Gone 10% 6% 6% 7% 6%
Down
Stayed the 31% 33% 27% 28% 31%
Same

Household $50,000 to More than


Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Gone Up 52% 66% 72%

Gone Down 8% 8% 5%

Stayed the Same 40% 26% 23%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


Gone Up 59% 60% 58% 76%

Gone Down 7% 7% 7% 7%

Stayed the Same 34% 33% 35% 18%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban


Gone Up 56% 67% 63%

Gone Down 7% 6% 8%

Stayed the Same 37% 27% 29%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone


Gone Up 67% 56% 50%

Gone Down 6% 9% 6%

Stayed the Same 27% 35% 44%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Home Prices in the
Next Six Months
 Forty-one percent of respondents believe that prices will stay the same in their
communities in the next six months, which is consistent with the previous quarter.
Forty-eight percent believe prices will increase in the next six months and 11
percent believe prices will go down in the next six months.
 Those who live in the West, earn $100,000 or more, and rent are most likely to
believe prices will go up in their communities.

Home Prices in the Next 6 Months In Local Community


100%
9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6%
11%

80%
41% 42% 40% 41%
42% 41% 43%
47% 48% 47% 47% 41%
60%

40%

52% 53% 51% 53% 55% 53%


51% 48%
20% 44% 45% 44% 44%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018
Will Go Up Stay the Same Will Go Down

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Home Prices in the
Next Six Months
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Will Go Up 48% 45% 50% 50% 50%

Will Go 16% 11% 7% 10% 8%


Down
Stay the 36% 45% 43% 41% 42%
Same

Household $50,000 to More than


Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Will Go Up 49% 46% 50%

Will Go Down 11% 10% 11%

Stay the Same 41% 44% 39%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


Will Go Up 48% 38% 53% 49%

Will Go Down 10% 12% 7% 17%

Stay the Same 42% 49% 40% 34%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban


Will Go Up 46% 47% 53%

Will Go Down 10% 11% 12%

Stay the Same 44% 43% 35%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone


Will Go Up 47% 51% 53%

Will Go Down 10% 13% 13%

Stay the Same 44% 36% 35%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Qualify for a Mortgage
 Among those who do not currently own a home, 29 percent believe it would be
very difficult and 30 percent believe it would be somewhat difficult to qualify for a
mortgage given their current financial situation.
 Seventy-one percent of those who earn under $50,000 believe it would be at least
somewhat difficult to qualify for a mortgage, compared to 30 percent of those
earning over $100,000.

With Household’s Current Financial Situation, Non-


Owners’ Perceived Difficulty Qualifying for a Mortgage

100%
14% 16% 15% 16% 17% 20% 20% 20%
21% 19% 21% 21%

80%
23% 20%
25% 23% 23% 19% 21% 17%
22% 21%
23% 25%
60%

36% 30%
33% 30% 31% 30% 31% 28%
31% 30%
40% 29% 28%

20%
30% 30% 30% 31% 31% 32% 34%
29% 27% 26% 28% 29%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018
Very Difficult Somewhat Difficult Not Very Difficult Not At All Difficult
2018 NAR HOME Survey
Qualify for a Mortgage
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Very Difficult 21% 23% 38% 48% 44%

Somewhat Difficult 32% 28% 32% 31% 19%

Not Very Difficult 28% 18% 10% 7% 13%

Not At All Difficult 18% 30% 20% 15% 24%

Household $50,000 to More than


Income: Under $50,000 $100,000 $100,000
Very Difficult 37% 22% 15%

Somewhat Difficult 34% 32% 15%

Not Very Difficult 16% 23% 33%

Not At All Difficult 14% 24% 37%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


Very Difficult 23% 29% 35% 24%

Somewhat Difficult 29% 27% 27% 38%

Not Very Difficult 25% 27% 17% 19%

Not At All Difficult 24% 17% 22% 20%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban


Very Difficult 37% 26% 27%

Somewhat Difficult 36% 31% 27%

Not Very Difficult 4% 23% 25%

Not At All Difficult 23% 20% 21%

Tenure: Rent Live with someone


Very Difficult 27% 33%

Somewhat Difficult 30% 32%

Not Very Difficult 21% 19%

Not At All Difficult 22% 17%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Outlook on
U.S. Economy
 Fifty-nine percent of people believe the U.S. economy is improving, an increase
from 52 percent in Q4 2017.
 Optimism is highest among those who earn $50,000 or more.
 Fifty-six percent of those over the age of 65 believe the economy is improving, the
lowest of all age groups.
 Fifty-three percent of those in urban areas believe the economy is improving,
compared to 71 percent in rural areas.

Outlook on the U.S. Economy


100%

80% 38% 40% 42% 40% 41%


46% 46% 47% 48%
52% 51%
52%

60%

40%
62% 60% 58% 60% 59%
54% 54% 53% 52%
48% 49%
20% 48%

0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018
Improving Not Improving

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Outlook on
U.S. Economy
Age: 34 or under 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 or over
Improving 59% 58% 60% 60% 56%
Not Improving 41% 42% 40% 40% 44%

Household
Income: Under $50,000 $50,000 to $100,000 More than $100,000
Improving 54% 61% 61%

Not Improving 46% 39% 39%

Region: Northeast Midwest South West


Improving 57% 59% 59% 59%

Not Improving 43% 42% 41% 41%

Location: Rural Suburban Urban


Improving 71% 56% 53%

Not Improving 29% 44% 48%

Tenure: Own Rent Live with someone


Improving 62% 54% 56%

Not Improving 38% 46% 44%

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Personal Financial
Outlook Index
Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal
financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their
personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all
respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

Personal Financial Outlook by Tenure


75

70

65
61.4
60 60.8
58.5
55

50
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Mar-15

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-18
Jul-15
Sep-15

Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16

Mar-17

Nov-17
Jul-17
Sep-17

Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18
All U.S. Households Own Rent

Personal Financial Outlook by Age of Household Head

80

70
66.9
63.7
60.8
60
60.8

53.4
50

40
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Mar-15

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-18
Jul-15
Sep-15

Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16

Mar-17

Nov-17
Jul-17
Sep-17

Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18

All U.S. Households 18-24 25-44 45-64 65+

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Personal Financial
Outlook Index
Index ranges between 0 and 100: 0 = all respondents believe their personal
financial situation will be worse in 6 months; 50 = all respondents believe their
personal financial situation will be about the same in 6 months; 100 = all
respondents believe their personal situation will be better in 6 months.

Personal Financial Outlook by Income


75

70

65 64.4
60.8
60 60.8
58.4
55
52.8

50

45
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Mar-15

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-17

Nov-18
Jul-15
Sep-15

Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16

Mar-17

Jul-17
Sep-17

Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18
All U.S. Households Under 30K 30K-50K 50-75K 75K+

Personal Financial Outlook by Area


75

70

65
62.2
60.8
60 60.7
59.1
55

50

45
Jan-16

Jan-17

Jan-18
May-15

May-16

May-17

May-18
Mar-15

Nov-15

Nov-16

Nov-18
Jul-15
Sep-15

Mar-16

Jul-16
Sep-16

Mar-17

Nov-17
Jul-17
Sep-17

Mar-18

Jul-18
Sep-18

All U.S. Households Urban Suburban Rural

2018 NAR HOME Survey


Methodology
The survey was conducted by an established survey research firm, TechnoMetrica
Market Intelligence. Each month, October through December, a sample of U.S.
households was surveyed via random-digit dial, including cell phones and land
lines. Using a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system,
TechnoMetrica conducts interviews from their call center in Ramsey, NJ.

Regional quotas are used, based on four census regions and nine census divisions.

Each month approximately 900 qualified households responded to the survey.


The data compiled for this report and is based on 2,710 completed telephone
interviews. For monthly results, the margin of error for the survey is +/-3.3
percentage points at the 95% confidence level.

©2018 National Association of REALTORS®


All Rights Reserved.
May not be reprinted in whole or in part without permission of the
National Association of REALTORS®.
For reprint information, contact data@realtors.org.

2018 NAR HOME Survey


The National Association of REALTORS® is America’s largest trade association, representing
1.3 million members, including NAR’s institutes, societies and councils, involved in all aspects of
the real estate industry. NAR membership includes brokers, salespeople, property managers,
appraisers, counselors and others engaged in both residential and commercial real estate.

The term REALTOR® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies a


real estate professional who is a member of the National Association of REALTORS®
and subscribes to its strict Code of Ethics.

Working for America’s property owners, the National Association provides a facility for
professional development, research and exchange of information among its members
and to the public and government for the purpose of preserving the free enterprise
system and the right to own real property.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®


RESEARCH GROUP
The Mission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Group is to
produce timely, data-driven market analysis and authoritative business intelligence to serve
members, and inform consumers, policymakers and the media in a professional and accessible
manner.

To find out about other products from NAR’s Research Group, visit
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics.

NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®


Research Group
500 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
202-383-1000
data@realtors.org

2018 NAR HOME Survey