Water in a Changing World

Author(s): Robert B. Jackson, Stephen R. Carpenter, Clifford N. Dahm, Diane M.

McKnight, Robert J. Naiman, Sandra L. Postel and Steven W. Running
Source: Ecological Applications, Vol. 11, No. 4 (Aug., 2001), pp. 1027-1045
Published by: Wiley on behalf of the Ecological Society of America
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3061010
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Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp. 1027-1045
?) 2001 by the Ecological Society of America

Issues in Ecology

WATER IN A CHANGING WORLD

ROBERT B. JACKSON,',8 STEPHEN R. CARPENTER,2 CLIFFORD N. DAHM,3 DIANE M. MCKNIGHT,4

ROBERT J. NAIMAN,5 SANDRA L. POSTEL,6 AND STEVEN W. RUNNING7

'Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 USA
2Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 USA
3Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 USA
4Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309 USA
5School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 USA
6Center for Global Water Policy, 107 Larkspur Drive, Amherst, Massachusetts 01002 USA
7School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USA

Abstract. Renewable fresh water comprises a tiny fraction of the global water pool
but is the foundation for life in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The benefits to humans
of renewable fresh water include water for drinking, irrigation, and industrial uses, for
production of fish and waterfowl, and for such instream uses as recreation, transportation,
and waste disposal.
In the coming century, climate change and a growing imbalance among freshwater
supply, consumption, and population will alter the water cycle dramatically. Many regions
of the world are already limited by the amount and quality of available water. In the next
30 yr alone, accessible runoff is unlikely to increase more than 10%, but the earth's pop-
ulation is projected to rise by approximately one-third. Unless the efficiency of water use
rises, this imbalance will reduce freshwater ecosystem services, increase the number of
aquatic species facing extinction, and further fragment wetlands, rivers, deltas, and estuaries.
Based on the scientific evidence currently available, we conclude that: (1) over half of
accessible freshwater runoff globally is already appropriated for human use; (2) more than
1 x 109 people currently lack access to clean drinking water and almost 3 x 109 people
lack basic sanitation services; (3) because the human population will grow faster than
increases in the amount of accessible fresh water, per capita availability of fresh water will
decrease in the coming century; (4) climate change will cause a general intensification of
the earth's hydrological cycle in the next 100 yr, with generally increased precipitation,
evapotranspiration, and occurrence of storms, and significant changes in biogeochemical
processes influencing water quality; (5) at least 90% of total water discharge from U.S.
rivers is strongly affected by channel fragmentation from dams, reservoirs, interbasin di-
versions, and irrigation; and (6) globally, 20% of freshwater fish species are threatened or
extinct, and freshwater species make up 47% of all animals federally endangered in the
United States.
The growing demands on freshwater resources create an urgent need to link research
with improved water management. Better monitoring, assessment, and forecasting of water
resources will help to allocate water more efficiently among competing needs. Currently
in the United States, at least six federal departments and 20 agencies share responsibilities
for various aspects of the hydrologic cycle. Coordination by a single panel with members
drawn from each department, or by a central agency, would acknowledge the diverse
pressures on freshwater systems and could lead to the development of a well-coordinated
national plan.

Key words: aquatic environment; climate change; global hydrological cycle; renewable fresh-
water supply; water policy; water resources.

INTRODUCTION

The movement of water through the hydrological

Manuscript received 20 October 2000; accepted 11 November
2000.
Reprints of this 19-page report are available for $3.00
each. Prepayment is required. Order reprints from the Eco-
logical Society of America. Attention: Reprint Department,
1707 H Street, N.W., Suite 400, Washington, DC 20006.
8 Address for correspondence: Department of Biology,
Phytotron Building, Duke University, Durham, North Caro-
lina 27708 USA. E-mail: jackson@duke.edu
cycle comprises the largest flow of any material in the
biosphere (Chahine 1992). Driven by solar energy, the
hydrological cycle delivers an estimated 110000 km3
of water to the land annually in precipitation (Speidel
and Agnew 1982, L'Vovich et al. 1990, Schwarz et al.
1990). This renewable freshwater supply sustains ter-
restrial, freshwater, and estuarine ecosystems.

1027

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 108S ISSUES IN ECOOG Vl II, N;o.

ZL 6500 - 500
E 6000- 450
G 5500-
D5000-,n - 400 )
World Human Population 350 )
3 4000-
4000-S~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Water
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ USe
~ ~ ,~300 0n
~ -0
3500- zr , 0

O 3000E

U 1500 ' ' _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~100 .a)

-200 cz

-S Irrigated Area 150

2000 =150

E 0
I 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
FIG. 1. Global data for human population, water withdrawals, and irrigated land area from 1900 t
updated from Gleick [1998b]).

Renewable fresh water provides many benefits (Pos-
tel and Carpenter 1997). These include water for drink-
ing, industrial production, and irrigation, and the pro-
duction of fish, waterfowl, and shellfish. Freshwater
systems also provide many nonextractive or instream
benefits, including flood control, transportation, rec-
reation, waste processing, hydroelectric power, and
habitat for aquatic life. Some benefits, such as irrigation
and hydroelectric power, are achieved only by major
changes to flow regime and flow paths from dams and
water diversions (Rosenberg et al. 2000). These hy-
drological changes often have negative consequences
or trade-offs with other instream benefits, such as sup-
porting aquatic life and maintaining suitable water
quality for human use (Naiman et al. 1995; J. S. Baron,
N. L. Poff, P L. Angermeier, C. N. Dahm, P. H. Gleick,
N. G. Hairston, Jr., R. B. Jackson, C. A. Johnston, B.
G. Richter, and A. D. Steinman, unpublished manu-
script).
The ecological, social, and economic benefits that
freshwater systems provide, and the trade-offs between
consumptive and instream benefits, will change dra-
matically in the coming century (Chichilnisky and Heal
1998, Wilson and Carpenter 1999, Vorosmarty and Sa-
hagian 2000). In the past 100 yr, the amount of water
withdrawn globally by humans and the land area under
irrigation have risen exponentially (Fig. 1). A global
perspective on water withdrawals is important for en-
suring sustainable water use, but is insufficient for re-
gional and local stability. How fresh water is managed
in particular basins and individual watersheds is the
key to sustainable water management.
Despite the clear importance of water for human
health and welfare, basic water needs are not met for
many people in the world. Currently, 1.1 x 109 people
lack access to safe drinking water and 2.8 X 109 lack
basic sanitation services (World Health Organization
1996). These deficiencies cause -250 x 106 cases of
water-related diseases and 5-10 X 106 deaths each year
(Gleick 2000). Current unmet needs also limit our abil-
ity to adapt to future hydrologic changes. Many current
systems designed to provide water in relatively stable
climatic conditions may be ill prepared to adapt to fu-
ture changes in climate, consumption, and population.
The goal of this report is to describe key features of
human-induced changes to the global water cycle. The
effects of pollution on water availability and on puri-
fication costs have been addressed previously (Car-
penter et al. 1998). We focus instead on current and
potential changes in the cycling of water that are es-
pecially relevant for ecological processes. We begin by
briefly summarizing the global hydrological cycle: its
current state and historical context. We next examine
the extent to which human activities currently alter the
water cycle and may affect it in the future. These chang-
es include "direct" actions, such as dam construction,
and "indirect" ones, such as climatic change. We ex-
amine human appropriation of freshwater supply for
renewable and nonrenewable sources globally. The re-
port ends by discussing changes in water use that may
be especially important in the future. We highlight
some current progress and suggest priorities for re-
search, emphasizing examples for the United States.
THE GLOBAL WATER CYCLE
Surface water
There are > 1 x 109 km3 of water on earth (Chahine
1992, Schmitt 1995, Schlesinger 1997). Although most
of the planet is covered by water, the vast majority is
in forms unavailable to terrestrial and freshwater eco-
systems. Less than 3% is fresh enough to drink or to

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 A Igust 200 A TER INS A CHANGG WORLD 1029

FIG. 2. The renewable freshwater cycle in units of thousands of km3 and thousands of km-3/yr, respectively, for pools
(white numbers) and fluxes (black numbers). Total precipitation over land is -~ 1 10000 km3/yr. Approximately two-thirds of
this precipitation is water recycled from plants and the soil (evapotranspiration is 70 000 km3/yr), whereas one-third is water
evaporated from the oceans that is transported over land (40 000 km3/yr). Total evaporation from the oceans is -~-10 times
larger than the flux pictured here (-425 000 km3/yr). Groundwater holds -15 000 000 km-3 of fresh water, much of which is
not in active exchange with the earth's surface.

irrigate crops, and of that total, more than two-thirds
is locked in glaciers and ice caps. Freshwater lakes and
rivers hold 100000 km3 globally, less than 0.01% of
all water on earth (Schwarz et al. 1990).
Atmospheric water exerts an important influence on
climate and on the hydrological cycle (Shiklomanov
1989). Only 15000 km3 of water is typically held in
the atmosphere at any time, but this tiny fraction is
vital for the biosphere (Fig. 2). Water vapor contributes
approximately two-thirds of the total warming that
greenhouse gases supply. Without these gases, the
mean surface temperature of the earth would be well
below freezing and liquid water would be absent over
much of the planet (Ramanathan 1988, Mitchell 1989).
Equally important for life, atmospheric water turns
over every 10 d or so, and is the source of the earth's
precipitation.
Renewable fresh water comprises a subset of the
solar-driven pools and fluxes in the earth's hydrological
cycle (Fig. 2). Solar energy typically evaporates
-425 000 km3 of ocean water each year. Most of this
water returns directly to the oceans, but - 10% falls on
land. If this were the only source of rainfall, average
terrestrial precipitation for the earth would be only 25
cm/yr, a value typical for deserts or semiarid regions.
Instead, a second, larger source of water is recycled
from plants and the soil, a direct feedback between the
land surface and regional climate (Pielke et al. 1998).
Important elemental cycles in these ecosystems, such
as C and N, are strongly coupled to this freshwater
flux, creating additional feedbacks between vegetation
and climate. This recycled water contributes two-thirds
of the average 70 cm/yr of precipitation that falls over
land (Chahine 1992). Taken together, these two fluxes
constitute the 1 10 000 km3/yr of renewable freshwater
supply for terrestrial, freshwater, and estuarine eco-
systems (Fig. 2).
Because precipitation is greater than evaporation on
land, 40000 km3 of water returns to the oceans, pri-
marily via rivers and underground aquifers (L'Vovich
1973, Schwarz et al. 1990). The availability of this
fresh water in transit to the oceans is determined by
the form of the precipitation (rain or snow), its timing
relative to patterns of seasonal temperature and sun-
light, and the geomorphology of a region. For example,
in many mountain regions, most precipitation falls as
snow during winter, and spring snowmelt causes peak
flows that propagate into major river systems. Such

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 1030 +:)S; S LD89090JUiS;trSS0U000 I ES IN ECOLOGY
N; I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ E l Appications
Ml~~~~~Vo
river systems have often been modified to capture and
store the pulse of spring floodwater. The retention and
redistribution of this water on the landscape typically
increases concentrations of ions, nutrients, and con-
taminants through greater contact with soils and min-
erals and through evaporative water losses. In some
tropical regions, episodic flooding is associated with
monsoons; not as much of this floodwater is retained
in dams. In other regions, excess precipitation recharg-
es ground water or is stored in wetlands. Widespread
losses of wetlands and riparian areas reduce the atten-
uation of high flows and enhances the transport of wa-
terborne excess nutrients and contaminants to coastal
environments (Peterjohn and Correll 1984). More than
half of all wetlands in the United States have already
been drained, dredged, filled, or planted (Vileisis
1997).
Important gradients in water availability exist glob-
ally. Two-thirds of all precipitation falls between 300
N and 30? S latitude because of greater solar radiation
and evaporation there. Daily evaporation from the
oceans ranges from 0.4 cm at the equator to <0.1 cm
at the poles (Mitchell 1989, Chahine 1992). Runoff in
tropical regions is also typically larger. Roughly half
of the precipitation in rain forests becomes runoff
(Shuttleworth 1988), but the value for deserts is much
smaller because of high evaporative demand and low
rainfall (Schlesinger et al. 1987). The Amazon, for ex-
ample, carries 15% of all water returning to the oceans
globally. In contrast, the Colorado River drainage is
one-tenth the size of the Amazon, but its historic annual
runoff is 300 times smaller (Loaiciga et al. 1996). Sim-
ilar variation occurs at continental scales. Average run-
off in Australia is only 4 cm/yr, eight times less than
in North America and orders of magnitude less than in
tropical South America (Tamrazyan 1989). The result
of these and many other factors is that freshwater avail-
ability varies dramatically worldwide.
Ground water
At least one-fourth of the world's population draws
its water from underground aquifers (Ford and Wil-
liams 1989, White et al. 1995). Estimates of the global
hydrologic cycle generally treat rates of ground water
inflow and outflow as in balance (Hornberger et al.
1998), although this resource is being depleted globally
(Shiklomanov 1997). Approximately 99% of all liquid
fresh water is in underground aquifers (Fig. 2). This
ground water typically turns over more slowly than
most other water pools, often in hundreds to tens of
thousands of years, although the range in turnover rates
is large (United States Environmental Protection Agen-
cy and Government of Canada 1995, Schlesinger
1997). Even more dramatically, most ground water is
not in active exchange with the earth's surface, sur-
viving instead as a relic of wetter climatic conditions
and melting Pleistocene ice sheets of the past. Such
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1,N.
"fossil water" accumulated over tens of thousands of
years and, once used, cannot readily be replenished.
The distinction between renewable and nonrenew-
able ground water is critical for water management and
policy. Renewable aquifers depend on current precip-
itation for refilling and are vulnerable to changes in the
quantity and quality of recharge water (White et al.
1995). For example, ground water pumping of the Ed-
wards Aquifer, which supplies much of central Texas,
USA, with drinking water, has increased fourfold since
the 1930s and at times now exceeds annual recharge
rates (Brown et al. 1992, United States Geological Sur-
vey 1998). Increased water use makes aquifers more
susceptible to changes in weather, such as drought, and
to contamination. Depletion of ground water can also
cause surface subsidence and compaction, permanently
reducing aquifer storage (Sun et al. 1999). The Central
Valley of California has lost -25 km3 of storage in this
way (Bertoldi 1992), a capacity equal to >40% of the
combined storage capacity of all human-made reser-
voirs in the state.
Where extraction of ground water exceeds recharge
rates, the resulting lower water tables decrease summer
low-flow rates in rivers and streams, reduce perennial
stream habitat, increase summer stream temperatures,
and impair water quality (Jones and Mulholland 2000).
Trout and salmon species select areas of ground water
upwelling in streams to moderate extreme temperatures
and to keep their eggs from freezing (Benson 1953).
Dynamic exchange of surface and ground water alters
the biogeochemistry of streams (e.g., affecting dis-
solved oxygen and nutrient concentrations) and reduces
concentrations of dissolved contaminants such as pes-
ticides and volatile organic compounds (Kim et al.
1995, Holmes 2000). Because of such links, human
development of either ground water or surface water
alone often affects the quantity and quality of the other
(Brunke and Gonser 1997, Slutsky and Yen 1997, Win-
ter et al. 1998). Renewable ground water and surface
water have commonly been viewed separately, both
scientifically and legally. This view is changing as stud-
ies in streams, rivers, reservoirs, wetlands, and estu-
aries show the importance of interactions between re-
newable surface and ground waters for water supply,
water quality, and aquatic habitats (Dahm et al. 1998,
Winter et al. 1998).
In contrast to renewable ground water, more than
three-fourths of underground water is nonrenewable
(defined as ground water with a renewal period of cen-
turies or more; Shiklomanov 1997), as shown in Fig.
3. The High Plains, or Ogallala, Aquifer, arguably the
largest aquifer in the world, underlies 0.5 x 106 km2
of the central United States (Kromm and White 1990).
Turbine pumps and relatively inexpensive energy since
the 1940s have led to -200 000 wells being drilled into
the aquifer, making it the primary water source for one-
fifth of irrigated U.S. farmland (Schwarz et al. 1990,
Augustr 2i# 0E0001 WATER0003000 IN0 A00 CHNGN WORLD20 103100;gaVtSd :Sfi000 S d X 00 0000;;:2::;f f0:000 :;0000000E00r uA 0 5t:0:400

The Ogallala Aquifer

FIG. 3. Locations of nonrenewable groundwater resources (lighter gray) and the main locations of groundwater mining
(darker gray), based on Shiklomanov (1997). The inset shows the location of the High Plains (Ogallala) Aquifer.

Sahagian et al. 1994). Irrigated cropland area in the
region peaked around 1980 at 5.6 x 106 ha and at
pumping rates of 22 km3/yr of water (-6 x 1012 gallons
a year), but has since declined somewhat through
groundwater depletion and socioeconomic factors. The
average thickness of the Ogallala declined by >5%
across one-fifth of its area in the 1980s alone (L'Vovich
et al. 1990).
susceptible to groundwater depletion. For example, ex-
ploitation of the Northern Sahara Basin Aquifer in the
1990s was almost twice the rate of replenishment;
many springs associated with this aquifer have dried
up almost completely (Shiklomanov 1997).
For nonrenewable water sources, it is difficult to dis-
cuss sustainable or appropriate rates of extraction. Like
deposits of coal and oil, almost any extraction is non-

The links between surface water and ground water
are especially important in regions with low rainfall
(Box 1 and Table 1). Arid and semiarid regions cover
one-third of the earth's lands and hold one-fifth of glob-
al population. Ground water is the primary source of
water for drinking and irrigation, and these regions
have many of the world's largest aquifers (Sahagian et
al. 1994). Limited recharge makes such aquifers highly
sustainable. Important societal questions include at
what rate groundwater pumping should be allowed, for
what purpose, and who, if anyone, will safeguard the
needs of future generations. For the Ogallala Aquifer,
the water may be gone in as little as a century.
HUMAN APPROPRIATION OF FRESHWATER SUPPLY
Growth in global population and water consumption
will place additional pressure on freshwater resources

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 1032 ISSUES Th~~~~~ ECOLOGY Vol. 11, No.4~~~~A
Ecological ApplEcations

Projected Future Changes In AET

% change from 1961-1990 baseline to 2061-2090 scenario climate

-20 0 20 40 GO 80 10

Projected Future Changes In PRCP

%change from 196141990 baseline to 2061 -2090 scenario climate

-20 0 20 40 go 80 100O
FIG. 4. A projection of future changes in actual evapotranspiration (AET) and precipitation (PRCP) generated by the
BIOME-BGC ecosystem model using a future climate scenario to the year 2100, derived from a General Circulation Model
(GCM). In this scenario, atmospheric CO2 increased --0.5% per year, and the terrestrial model responded with structural
ecosystem changes in leaf area index as a function of changes in CO2. climate, water, and nitrogen availability. In general,
these projections suggest higher precipitation and increased leaf area index in the arid West, leading to higher AET. Reduced
precipitation and the resulting effects of drought on vegetation are the primary causes of lower evapotranspiration in the
Southeast. For additional information, see Box 2. Results from VEMAP II are courtesy of P. Thornton, Numerical Terradynamic
Simulation Group, University of Montana.

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August0 i0002000000:Q00002001 WATERil;l0l IN; A CHANGING WORLD 1033i000Q;400003 t : ;;0ti X 0 r;9;0 0lX:0|0 :0l;0 00l l0+3

-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ J

FiG. 5. Contrasting riparian vegetation in the Middle Rio Grande reach south of Albuquerque, New Mexico: an exotic
saltcedar-dominated site on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (top), and a native cottonwood-dominated site near Los
Lunas (bottom). Water management, especially dam construction and river channeling, has greatly altered this floodplain
ecosystem. The last major floods with significant cottonwood establishment were in 1942. Invasions by exotic phreatophytes
such as saltcedar, pictured here, and Russian olive have dramatically altered riparian forest composition. Without changes
in water management, exotic species will probably dominate riparian zones in the Middle Rio Grande basin within the next
half century. For additional information, see Box 1.

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 1030;4r-S0 V ISSUES ; WOX)1 >Jications0fd:0000t0000 i0000Xr ff

Box 1. A Case Study: the Middle Rio Grande

Increasing water demands create potential conflicts between human needs and those of native ecosystems
(Christensen et al. 1996). Perhaps nowhere are human impacts on river and riparian ecosystems greater
than in arid and semiarid regions of the world. The Middle Rio Grande Basin of central New Mexico is
a rapidly growing area with more than half of the state's population. The desire to balance water needs
there has led to a careful water budget for the basin (Table 1), highlighting annual variability, measurement
uncertainty, and conflicting water demands for the region (Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly 1999).
The goal of the water budget is to help design a sustainable water policy.
Water management has greatly altered this floodplain ecosystem (Fig. 5). Dam construction and river
channeling now prevent spring floods. Riparian zones, limited by a system of levees, were once a mosaic
of cottonwood (Populus spp.), willow (Salix spp.), wet meadows, marshes, and ponds. The last major
floods with significant cottonwood establishment were in 1942, and the cottonwoods are declining in most
areas (Molles et al. 1998). Half of the wetlands in the drainage were lost in just 50 yr (Crawford et al.
1993). Invasion by exotic phreatophytes such as saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima) and Russian olive
(Elaeagnus angustifolia) dramatically altered riparian forest composition. Without changes in water man-
agement, exotic species will probably dominate the riparian zones within half a century.
The water budget of the Middle Rio Grande reflects recent changes in hydrology, riparian ecology, and
groundwater pumping (Table 1). Estimating all major water depletions in the basin is critical for managing
its water. Major depletions include urban uses, irrigation, plant transpiration, open-water evaporation, and
aquifer recharge (Table 1). The largest loss is open-water evaporation, comprising one-third of the total.
This loss is large compared to values before management: direct evaporation from Elephant Butte Reservoir
alone ranges from 50 to 280 x 106 m3/yr, depending on reservoir size and climate. The second largest
depletion is riparian plant transpiration (135-340 X 106 m3/yr). There is considerable uncertainty in this
estimate from the unknown effects of fluctuating river discharge on transpiration and differences for native
and non-native riparian species. Irrigated agriculture in the Middle Rio Grande accounts for an estimated
20% of annual average depletions, with cropping patterns, weather, and water availability contributing to
annual variability. Urban consumption and net aquifer recharge are similar and account for 20-25% of
the remaining depletion in the Middle Rio Grande. Average annual depletions are partially offset by water
from the San Juan-Chama Project, tributary inflows within the basin, and municipal wastewater discharge.
Nonetheless, water depletions are already fully appropriated for an average water year. Municipal use of
San Juan-Chama water, sustained drought, and continued growth will increase pressure on surface water
resources. No new water is likely to be available in the near future, so water conservation must play a
dominant role.
A careful water budget is essential in designing sustainable water policy. For the Middle Rio Grande,
accurate long-term measurements of surface flows, evapotranspiration, net aquifer recharge, and ground-
water levels are necessary. Reservoir operations, exotic species control, land use planning, and agricultural
and urban water conservation all play an important role in a sustainable water future for the region. Other
arid and semiarid regions of the world have similar needs for fundamental data and careful water planning,
where balancing diverse water demands will be a formidable and important challenge.

in the coming century (Robarts and Wetzel 2000, V6-
rosmarty et al. 2000). The solar-powered hydrological
cycle annually makes available several times more
fresh water than is needed to sustain the world's current
population of 6 X 109 people (Table 2). However, the
distribution of this water is not well matched geograph-
ically or temporally to human needs (Postel et al. 1996).
The large river flows of the Amazon and Zaire-Congo
basins and the northern tier of undeveloped rivers
(largely in tundra and taiga) in North America and
Eurasia are largely inaccessible for human uses and
will likely remain so for the foreseeable future. To-
gether, these remote rivers account for nearly one-fifth
of the total global runoff (L'Vovich et al. 1990).
Approximately half of the global renewable supply
runs rapidly toward the sea in floods (Table 2). In man-
aged river systems of North America and many other
regions, spring floodwaters from snowmelt are stored
in reservoirs for later use. In tropical regions, a sub-
stantial share of annual runoff occurs during monsoon
flooding. In Asia, for example, 80% of runoff occurs
between May and October (Shiklomanov 1993). This
floodwater provides a variety of ecological services, in
addition to supporting wetlands, but is not a practical

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 AugusCft ;2rrRS;0 45X>d;0x 0rQ20000 +0 00002t 2001 WAE iN AS CHANGING0 WORL 1SStV 0 3500+t
TABLE 1. (A) Sources and (B) average annual water deple-
tion from 1972 to 1997 for the Middle Rio Grande reach
(the 64 000-km2 drainage between Otowi gage north of
Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA, and Elephant Butte Dam).
Fresh water
Parameter (106 m3l/yr)
A) Water source
Average Otowi flow 1360
San Juan-Chama diversion 70
B) Water use
Open-water evaporation 270
Riparian plant transpiration 220
Irrigated agriculture 165
Urban consumption (groundwater) 85
Net aquifer recharge 85
Notes: Flow records at the Otowi gage, the inflow point
for the Middle Rio Grande reach, are more than a century
old. Water supplemented from the San Juan-Chama diversion
project began in 1972 and increased Otowi flow by 70 x 106
m3/yr (average flow without this water was - 1400 x 106 m3/
yr). Major municipal water systems in the basin currently
pump ground water at a rate of 85 x 106 m3/yr. Maximum
allowable depletion for the reach is 500 x 106 m3/yr when
adjusted annual flow exceeds 1900 x 106 m3/yr, decreasing
progressively to 58 x 106 m3/yr in severe drought years (in-
flows of 120 x 106 m3/yr at Otowi gage).
supply for irrigation, industry, and household uses that
need water to be delivered in controlled quantities at
specific times. As a result, accessible runoff has two
components: (1) renewable groundwater and base river
flow, and (2) floodwater that is captured and stored in
reservoirs.
L'Vovich et al. (1990) estimate that base river flows
and renewable groundwater account for -11 100 km3/
yr, or 27%, of global runoff. As long as the rate of
extraction does not exceed replenishment, these waters
can serve as a sustainable supply. Unfortunately, in
many places, including many important agricultural re-
gions, ground water is chronically overpumped. Based
on data for China, India, North Africa, Saudi Arabia,
and the United States, Postel (1999) estimates that
groundwater depletion in key basins totals ?160 km3/
yr. Groundwater depletion is particularly serious in In-
dia (National Environmental Engineering Research In-
stitute 1997), and some water experts have warned that
as much as one-fourth of India's grain harvest could
be jeopardized by overpumping (Seckler et al. 1998).
Simply because global groundwater extractions remain
well below the global recharge rate does not mean that
groundwater use is sustainable. What matters is how
water is used and managed in particular basins, and
there are many regions of the world where current de-
mand outstrips supply (Shiklomanov 1997).
Turning floodwater into an accessible supply gen-
erally requires dams and reservoirs to capture, store,
and control the water. Worldwide, there are -40 000
large dams > 15 m high, and 20 times as many smaller
dams (Oud and Muir 1997). Collectively, reservoirs
worldwide are able to hold an estimated 6600 km3/yr
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(Postel 1999). Considerably less water than this amount
is delivered to farms, industries, and cities, however,
because dams and reservoirs are also used to generate
electricity, control floods, and enhance river naviga-
tion. After adjusting base flow for geographic inacces-
sibility and adjusting reservoir capacity for functions
other than water supply, accessible runoff is -12 500
km3/yr, 31% of total annual runoff (Postel et al. 1996).
People use fresh water for many purposes. There are
three broad categories of extractive uses that withdraw
water from its natural channel or basin: irrigation for
crop production, industrial and commercial activities,
and residential activities. In many cases, water can be
used more than once after it is withdrawn. Water used
to wash dishes, for example, is not physically con-
sumed and may be used again (although it sometimes
requires further treatment). In contrast, about half of
the water diverted for irrigation of crops is consumed
through evapotranspiration and is unavailable for fur-
ther use.
Consumptive water uses can have extreme effects on
local and regional ecosystems. In the Aral Sea basin,
for example, large river diversions for irrigation have
caused the lake to shrink >75% in volume and 15 m
in depth over the past four decades (Kindler 1998). The
Aral Sea shoreline has retreated 120 km in places, and
a commercial fishery of 40 800 Mg (45 000 tons) a year
and 60000 jobs have disappeared. Water quality has
TABLE 2. Global runoff, withdrawals, and human appro-
priation of freshwater supply.
Parameter Fresh water (km3/yr)
Total global runoff 40 700
Remote flow, total 7800
Amazon basin 5400
Zaire-Congo basin 660
Remote northern rivers 1740
Uncaptured floodwater 20 400
Accessible runoff 12 500
Total human appropriation 6780
Global water withdrawals, total 4430
Agriculture 2880
Industry 975
Municipalities 300
Reservoir losses 275
Instream uses 2350
Notes: Remote flow refers to river runoff that is geograph-
ically inaccessible for human use, estimated to include 95%
of runoff in the Amazon basin, 95% of remote northern North
American and Eurasian river flows, and 50% of the Zaire-
Congo basin runoff. Runoff estimates also include renewable
groundwater. An estimated 18% (2285 km3/yr) of accessible
runoff is consumed, compared to an estimated appropriation
(including withdrawals and instream uses) of 6780 km3/yr
(54%). Water that is withdrawn but not consumed is not al-
ways returned to the same river or lake from which it was
taken, nor does it always provide the same natural ecosystem
functions. Data shown are from Postel et al. (1996), based
on additional data in Czaya (1981), L'Vovich et al. (1990),
and Shiklomanov (1997).
 1l036e;0Sff;00fitE0zd0|00fE tr|0gX 0!0fE!0i 00' I0S X SUESE INf ECOLOGY20;; Ecologivalf Applications0
also declined. Salinity tripled from 1960 to 1990, and
the water that remains is now saltier than the oceans
(Stone 1999).
For water management, the difference between use
and consumption is important. Postel et al. (1996) es-
timate that global water withdrawals (including evap-
orative losses from reservoirs) total -4430 km3/yr, of
which 52% is consumed. Water use also modifies water
quality through increased concentration of major ions,
nutrients, or contaminants, which, as in the example of
the Aral Sea, can limit the suitability of water for future
use.
In addition to water extracted from natural systems,
human enterprise depends greatly upon water that re-
mains in its natural channels. These so-called "in-
stream" uses include pollution dilution, recreation,
maintenance of navigation paths, the health of estuaries
as nurseries, sustenance of fisheries, and protection of
biodiversity (Postel and Carpenter 1997, Carpenter et
al. 1998). Because instream uses of water vary geo-
graphically and seasonally, it is difficult to estimate
their global total. Using pollution dilution as a rough
global proxy, however, Postel et al. (1996) estimate
instream uses to be 2350 km3/yr, a conservative esti-
mate that does not incorporate all such uses.
Combining this figure with estimated global with-
drawals places total human appropriation of freshwater
runoff at 6780 km3/yr, or 54% of estimated accessible
runoff (Postel et al. 1996). Although global water de-
mands continue to rise with increasing population and
consumption, accessible runoff can increase principally
through the construction of new dams or desalination.
Today, desalination accounts for <0.2% of global water
use (Gleick 2000), and is likely to remain a minor part
of global supply for the foreseeable future because of
its high energy requirements. Dams continue to bring
more water under human control, but the pace of con-
struction has slowed. In developed countries, many of
the best sites have already been used. Rising economic,
environmental, and social costs, such as habitat de-
struction, loss of biodiversity, and displacement of hu-
man communities, make further dam construction in-
creasingly difficult. About 260 new large dams now
come on line each year, compared with -- 1000/yr be-
tween the 1950s and 1970s (McCully 1996). Moreover,
at least 180 dams in the United States were removed
in the last decade based on evaluations of safety, en-
vironmental impact, and obsolescence (Born et al.
1998). The destruction of the Edwards Dam on Maine's
Kennebec River in 1999 marked the first time that fed-
eral regulators ruled that the environmental benefits of
removing a dam outweighed the benefits of operating
it.
As a result of these and other trends, accessible run-
off is unlikely to increase by more than 5-10% over
the next 30 yr (Postel et al. 1996). During the same
period, the earth's population is projected to grow by
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-35% (United Nations 1998). The demands on fresh-
water systems will continue to grow in the coming
century.
THE WATER CYCLE AND CLIMATE CHANGE
A scientific consensus now exists that the buildup of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is warming the
earth (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[IPCC] 1996). The last decade of the 20th century was
the warmest on record, and paleo-records indicate that
the warming of the past 50 yr has no counterpart in
the past 1000 yr (Crowley 2000). As the earth warms
in the coming century, a general intensification of the
hydrological cycle is expected to occur (Miller and
Russell 1992, Knox 1993, Tsonis 1996). Precipitation,
evapotranspiration, and runoff are all expected to in-
crease globally, and hydrologic extremes such as floods
and droughts will probably be more common and more
intense (IPCC 1996, Loaiciga et al. 1996). Some de-
creases in snow and ice cover have already been ob-
served. Changes in biogeochemical process controlling
water quality, especially C and N cycling, are likely to
be coupled to these hydrological changes (Murdoch et
al. 2000).
Regional and local changes will likely be more var-
iable and more difficult to predict. Many regions, es-
pecially temperate ones, will experience increased
summer drying from greater evaporation and, in some
cases, lower summer precipitation (Fig. 4; see also
Neilson and Marks 1994). For example, almost all gen-
eral circulation models predict that southern Europe
will receive less summer rainfall (IPCC 1996). In con-
trast, tropical regions may experience relatively small
warming-induced changes in the hydrologic cycle
(IPCC 1996). Uncertainties for predictions at regional
scales are illustrated by large differences in future sce-
narios for soil moisture in the central United States,
from as much as 75% drier to 30% wetter in summer,
predicted by models using different assumptions and
representations of hydrological processes (Hornberger
et al. 2001).
Future changes in the water cycle that will be es-
pecially important for the availability of fresh water
include the amount and timing of precipitation and run-
off, rates of evapotranspiration, and rising sea level.
Evaporative demand increases exponentially with tem-
perature, so evaporation from the oceans and global
mean precipitation should both increase as the earth
warms. All general circulation models examined in the
most recent IPCC (1996) assessment predict an in-
crease in globally averaged precipitation. Recent data
indicate that mean precipitation already may have in-
creased slightly in nontropical regions (Gates 1993).
Precipitation rose as much as 10-15% over the past 50
yr in the United States and Canada (Bradley et al. 1987,
Lettenmaier et al. 1994) and streamflow also increased
significantly during this period, especially in the east-
 Au~~~~~~~~~~~gusg;(;4f0tH 2001 WTER IN A0 CHNGN WORL 1:d: 037
ern half of the United States (Lins and Michaels 1994).
Increases in precipitation were smaller, but significant,
for the former Soviet Union (-10% per 100 yr; Grois-
man et al. 1991) and Scotland (Smith 1995). In contrast,
tropical and arid regions show no evidence for in-
creased precipitation (IPCC 1996), perhaps even drying
slightly in recent decades (Allan and Haylock 1993,
Nicholson 1994).
Slight increases in average global precipitation will
not uniformly increase freshwater availability. Greater
evaporative demand on plant and soil water may more
than offset increases in precipitation, even if increased
atmospheric CO2 reduces stomatal conductance and
water use of plants (Running and Nemani 1991, Field
et al. 1995, Miles et al. 2000). Also, because water has
a relatively high heat capacity and ocean turnover buff-
ers changes in temperature, the land surface should
warm more quickly than the ocean surface. This im-
portant transient effect increases the likelihood of
drought in continental regions (Rind et al. 1990), and
may intensify pressure gradients and wind patterns in
coastal regions, enhancing upwelling of coastal waters
(Bakun 1990). In general, although some temperate and
polar regions will probably receive more precipitation,
other regions will receive less, and many more regions
will be effectively drier from increased evaporative de-
mand during the growing season (Mulholland et al.
1997).
Feedbacks from deforestation and other forms of
vegetation change such as afforestation and shrub en-
croachment will also affect climate and the hydrolog-
ical cycle in the coming century (Shukla and Mintz
1982, Dickinson 1991, Jackson et al. 2000). At regional
scales, deforestation reduces precipitation through in-
creased albedo and decreased water recycling. This
positive feedback of increased drying with deforesta-
tion may be especially important in tropical forests and
savannas (where rates of population growth and land-
use change are high), making it harder for trees to
become reestablished (Lean and Warrilow 1989, Hoff-
mann and Jackson 2000). Broadscale regional increases
in irrigation have the opposite potential feedback, in-
ducing cooler and wetter regional climates (Chase et
al. 1999). Agriculture uses 81% of all water consumed
in the United States, and much of this water is being
applied in drier regions where evaporative demand is
high, especially the central Great Plains and the West
(Baron et al. 1998, Solley et al. 1998). At local scales,
changes in vegetation and land cover also affect runoff
and water yields in individual watersheds (Bosch and
Hewlett 1982, Hibbert 1983).
The intensification of the hydrologic cycle under a
changing climate will also influence the rates of bio-
geochemical cycles coupled to hydrology (Schindler et
al. 1996, Webster et al. 1996). Terrestrial productivity
and plant species distributions may shift because of
factors such as changing soil moisture and nutrient
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availability and increased salinity. Microbial processes
in soils, which control accumulation of soil organic
matter and remineralization of nutrients, are influenced
by the duration of snow cover, freeze/thaw cycles, and
soil moisture (Lipson et al. 1999). In consequence, bio-
geochemical processes controlling C and N cycling and
salinity can influence the feedbacks between vegetation
change and changes in hydrology (Running and Ne-
mani 1991).
Changes in water quantity and quality also influence
habitat for aquatic biota (Naiman and Turner 2000). In
aquatic ecosystems, productivity of phytoplankton and
periphyton and nutrient cycling are influenced by the
duration of ice and snow cover and by changes in sea-
sonal flow regimes. Changes in C and N fluxes from
rivers to coastal areas can influence fisheries by de-
pleting oxygen in coastal waters, and may promote haz-
ardous algal blooms that threaten human health (Turner
and Rabalais 1994, National Research Council 2000a).
The uncertainties in the predicted changes in hydrology
for many regions translate to even greater uncertainties
in how regional-scale biogeochemical cycles that are
influenced by hydrology may change.
The water cycle will also be influenced in the coming
century by rising sea level. Sea level increased -18
cm in the past century and is predicted to rise 30-50
cm in the next 100 years (IPCC 1996). Such an increase
would push shores inland 30 m, on average, with crit-
ical changes for coastal systems (Gornitz 1995, Klein
and Nicholls 1999). Increased sea level will increase
saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal aquifers
(Sherif and Singh 1999), alter the distribution and hy-
drology of coastal wetlands (Michener et al. 1997, Mul-
rennan and Woodroffe 1998), and displace agriculture
in coastal regions and deltas (Chen and Zong 1999).
Many coastal aquifers that are already being depleted
face an additional threat from saltwater contamination
(U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1989, Gleick
1998a). Miami, Florida and Orange County, California
have spent millions of dollars in recent decades in-
jecting treated surface water to repel saltwater intrusion
into their aquifers (Office of Technology Assessment,
U.S. Congress 1993).
ISSUES FOR THE FUTURE
Emerging problems and implications for research
Human impacts on the quality and quantity of fresh
water threaten economic prosperity, social stability,
and the resilience of ecosystem services and natural
capital (Naiman et al. 1998, Wolf 1998, Meyer et al.
1999, Wilson and Carpenter 1999). As society and eco-
systems become increasingly dependent on static or
shrinking water supplies, there is increasing risk of
severe failures in social or ecological systems, includ-
ing complete transformation of ecosystems and the pos-
sibility of armed conflicts (Postel 2000). Rising de-
mand for fresh water can sever ecological connections
 1038 ISSUES Ri
in aquatic systems, fragmenting rivers from flood-
plains, deltas, and coastal marine environments (Dy-
nesius and Nilsson 1994, Harwell 1998). It also can
change the quantity, quality, and timing of the fresh-
water supply on which terrestrial, aquatic, and estuarine
ecosystems depend (Covich 1993, Postel 2000).
Fresh water is already a limiting resource in many
parts of the world. In the next century, it will become
even more limiting because of increased population,
urbanization, and climate change (Pringle and Barber
2000). This limitation will arise from increased demand
for water and also from pollution in freshwater eco-
systems. Pollution decreases the supply of usable water
and increases the cost of purifying it. Some pollutants,
such as mercury or chlorinated organic compounds,
contaminate aquatic resources and affect food supplies.
More than 8 X 109 kg N and 2 X 109 kg P are discharged
each year into surface waters in the United States (Car-
penter et al. 1998). Such pollution and human demand
for water affect biodiversity, ecosystem functioning,
and the natural services upon which society depends
(Naiman and Turner 2000).
Growing demands for fresh water also dramatically
affect species conservation (Coyle 1993, Moyle and
Yoshiyama 1994). Globally, at least one-fifth of fresh-
water fish species are currently threatened or extinct
(Moyle and Leidy 1992, World Conservation Moni-
toring Centre 1992), and aquatic species currently make
up almost half of all animals listed as federally endan-
gered in the United States (Wilcove et al. 1993, Dobson
et al. 1997). The United States also has almost twice
as many threatened freshwater fish species as any other
country and has lost more molluscs to extinction
(World Conservation Monitoring Centre 1992, Flather
et al. 1998). Molluscs in the Appalachian Mountains
and freshwater fish in the Appalachians and in the Son-
oran basin and range are especially vulnerable (Flather
et al. 1998). There are also many vulnerable endemics
in karst systems and aquifers, including blind catfish,
crayfish, and salamanders (Bowles and Arsuffi 1993).
Such examples notwithstanding, aquatic species in oth-
er systems around the world are equally imperiled
(Dudgeon 2000, Pringle et al. 2000).
These rapidly unfolding water trends have a number
of implications for research priorities. One is the con-
tinuing need for a panel of scientists and policy analysts
to clearly define realistic goals and priorities for re-
search on water issues. Although a number of recent
efforts have taken important steps toward such prior-
ities, each is incomplete or not yet implemented. Our
brief report can only suggest a few priorities that seem
critical to us, acknowledging the need for broader input
linked to action.
There is an unprecedented need for cross-cutting re-
search to solve existing water problems (Lubchenco
1998, National Resource Council 1999). The examples
presented there have emphasized that water supply and
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ECOL0OY AW
II, No 4
quality are intimately connected, yet traditional sci-
entific boundaries between climatology, hydrology,
limnology, ecology, and the social sciences divide our
understanding and treatment of water systems (Naiman
et al. 1995, Sala et al. 2000). Such integration has been
called for often, but has not typically been implemented
by funding agencies, management agencies, or research
institutions (although the joint NSF and EPA Water and
Watershed program is a notable exception). Now is an
opportune time to increase incentives for this important
synthesis (National Research Council 2000b).
Forecasting the consequences of policy scenarios for
water supply and quality has several elements, includ-
ing prediction of hydrologic flows, concentrations of
sediments, nutrients, and pollutants, and changes in
biotic resources (Box 2). Watersheds are a natural spa-
tial unit for such predictions (Firth 1998), but some
problems such as coastal eutrophication require inte-
gration at regional scales (National Research Council
2000a). The forecasts should be quantitative, should
provide assessments of uncertainty such as forecast
probability distributions, and should be based on clear-
ly stated premises. Although the literature contains
many quantitative tools for forecasting freshwater re-
sources, freshwater forecasting is not a well-organized
field with a comprehensive set of standardized tools
and approaches. Quantitative tools for forecasting
changes in biogeochemical processes in terrestrial and
freshwater ecosystems are also lacking, especially at
large watershed and regional scales.
In many cases, uncertainty will be the most important
feature of freshwater forecasts. By evaluating uncer-
tainties, forecasters can help decision makers to antic-
ipate the range of possible outcomes and to design
flexible responses. Careful analyses of uncertainty can
also help to identify promising research areas that may
improve future decisions. Adaptive management is the
process of designing management interventions to de-
crease the variance of future forecasts and recommend
alternative management options (Walters 1986). Ex-
periments using adaptive management are designed to
be safe (decreasing the risk of environmental damages
or irreversible change) and informative (with clear ex-
perimental design and careful scientific assessment of
effects). Freshwater systems are increasingly the focus
of adaptive management efforts (Johnson 1999, Walters
and Korman 1999, and associated articles).
Current progress and management options
Growing demands on freshwater resources present
an opportunity to link ongoing research with improved
water management (Dellapenna 1999). Water policy
successes of recent decades demonstrate this link clear-
ly. Freshwater eutrophication and pollution have de-
creased in many waterways. In the Hudson River, for
example, concentrations of copper, cadmium, nickel,
and zinc have been halved since the mid-1970s (San-
 August 001fiXLe WAE NACAGIGWRD13

Box 2. Forecasting Water Resources

Forecasting future hydrology is important for guaranteeing human water supplies, scheduling irrigation
and hydroelectric power generation, moderating flooding, and coordinating recreational activity. Hydro-
logic forecasts predict future changes in hydrology using weather forecasts and current hydrologic con-
ditions. Forecasting hydrologic dynamics is becoming more tractable as regular monitoring data are im-
mediately available via internet connections. Current forecasts are generally 3-5 d in advance, but future
improvements in data distribution and hydrometeorological modeling will allow 1-6 mo forecasts in the
near future.
As an example of the array of data sets required for quality forecasting, Doppler radar is now used to
map precipitation cells every 30 min, and most stream gauge data are reported daily by satellite telemetry
and are posted on a USGS website. A national subset of daily surface weather observations from the
National Weather Service can also be received daily, but must be spatially interpolated and gridded for
hydrologic calculations (Thornton et al. 1997). Weekly satellite data of regional snow cover are available
on a NOAA website. Snowpack models can then provide measures of snowmelt and mountain runoff that
include topographic variability in the estimates (Hartman et al. 1999). Regional hydroecological models
incorporate digital topography and soils data to accurately represent hydrologic routing and watershed
latency (the lag between rainfall and runoff). Some of these hydrologic models also represent ecosystem
processes well, including vegetation coverage, leaf area index (LAI), and the controls of canopy evapo-
transpiration (Wigmosta et al. 1994). Satellite remote sensing of canopy LAI provides a critical link to
spatially continuous analysis of a watershed (Band 1993). Weekly updates of surface variables like LAI
and snow cover are now possible globally with the latest generation of earth-observing satellites (Running
et al. 1994).
New hydrometeorology models can ingest the daily data stream of variables discussed here and can
compute the dynamics of hydrologic discharge expected downstream in the following days (Baron et al.
1998). As the quality of new 1-6 mo climate forecasts improves, longer hydrologic forecasts should be
possible. When larger regions with human impacts are considered, such human activities as irrigation
withdrawals and reservoir regulation require that hydroecological models be coupled with engineering
hydrology models and socioeconomic data.
A different type of forecasting involves analyzing long-term hydrologic responses to future scenarios
of land use or climate change (Fig. 4; see also Vorosmarty et al. 2000). For example, hydrologists can
predict the increase in runoff and flood potential that might occur if portions of a watershed are clearcut
(Waring and Running 1998), or the consequences of a change in grazing regime for stream sedimentation.
The hydrologic consequences of changes in landscape urbanization or agricultural use can also be predicted
using a set of population and crop scenarios. Longer term forecasts of hydrological variables and freshwater
availability are also limited by uncertainties in climate projections. For predicting changes in freshwater
availability over decades and centuries, the best that can be done today is to make projections based on
scenarios of climate change provided by general circulation models (Fig. 4).
Advanced hydroecological models can also calculate critical aspects of water quality, such as stream
temperatures, dissolved oxygen concentrations, nutrient loading, and aquatic productivity. Eutrophication
of lakes and reservoirs is often predictable from data on land use and fluxes of water and nutrients (Smith
1998). For example, Lathrop et al. (1998) forecast probability distributions of cyanobacterial blooms in
a lake under various scenarios for management of nonpoint pollution. Other chemical properties that affect
water use, such as pH and microcontaminant concentrations, are forecast by various mechanistic and
statistical models (Stow et al. 1995, Sullivan 1997). Models of freshwater chemical fluxes have an important
role in predicting the responses of ocean biogeochemistry to anthropogenic perturbations (Doney 1999).
Hydrological models also play an increasingly important role in predicting biotic interactions in freshwater
systems, including forecasts of fish stocks and the potential for invasion of freshwater habitats (Hilborn
and Walters 1992, Kolar and Lodge 2000, Rose 2000).

udo-Wilhelmy and Gill 1999). Three decades ago, sci- pecially P (Smith 1998). This discovery led to widely
entists and managers decisively showed that the pri- implemented policies reducing inorganic pollutants in
mary cause of freshwater eutrophication was not over- North America and Europe, including bans on phos-
supply of carbon, but rather of inorganic nutrients, es- phate detergents and better sewage treatment. Rapid

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 Box 3. Some Priorities for Balancing Current and Future Demands on Freshwater Supply

1. Promotion of an "environmental water reserve" to ensure that ecosystems receive the quantity, quality,
and timing of flows needed to support their ecological functions and their services to society.t
2. Legal recognition of surface and renewable ground waters as a single coupled resource.
3. Improved monitoring, assessment, and forecasting of water quantity and quality for allocating water
resources among competition needs.t
4. Protection of critical habitats such as groundwater recharge zones and watersheds.
5. A more realistic valuation of water and freshwater ecosystem services.
6. Stronger economic incentives for efficient water use in all sectors of the economy.
7. Continued improvement in eliminating point and nonpoint sources of pollution.
8. A well coordinated national plan for managing the diverse and growing pressures on freshwater systems
and for establishing goals and research priorities for cross-cutting water issues.?

t To our knowledge, South Africa is the only country currently attempting to implement such a policy nationally
(e.g., South Africa's National Water Act of 1998).
: In the last 30 yr, more than one-fifth of gages in the United States recording flow on small, free-flowing streams
have been eliminated (United States Geological Survey 1999).
? Currently, at least six federal departments and 20 agencies in the United States share responsibilities for various
aspects of the water cycle and for water management.

improvement in places like Lake Erie showed that the
policies worked (Laws 1993). To build on these suc-
cesses, nonpoint sources of pollution should be reduced
in the future (Carpenter et al. 1998). Aggressive man-
agement of N inputs will also sometimes be needed,
as N is the critical nutrient in some aquatic ecosystems
(Guildford and Hecky 2000, National Research Council
2000a).
Habitat restoration and preservation are the focus of
many efforts to improve water management (Redfield
2000). Beginning in 1962, the 166 km long Kissimmee
River, which once meandered south to Florida's Lake
Okeechobee, was converted to a 90-km, 9 m deep canal
for flood control (Dahm et al. 1995, Koebel 1995).
Effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services were
immediate. Wintering waterfowl declined by 90%. Eu-
trophication increased in Lake Okeechobee as the wet-
lands that once filtered nutrients from the river dis-
appeared (Toth et al. 1998). Today, after decades of
research and numerous pilot studies, restoration of 70
km of the river channel, 11 000 ha of wetlands, and
100 km2 of floodplain has begun at a projected cost of
half a billion U.S. dollars.
In 1996, New York City invested more than one bil-
lion dollars to buy land and restore habitat in the Cat-
skill Mountains (Chichilnisky and Heal 1998). The
city's water supply was becoming increasingly polluted
with sewage, fertilizers, and pesticides. A new filtration
plant would have cost eight billion dollars to build and
three hundred million dollars per year to run. In con-
trast, preserving habitat in the watershed and letting
the ecosystem do the work was just as effective as a
new filtration plant. Habitat preservation and restora-
tion cost one-fifth the price of a new filtration plant,
without hundreds of millions of dollars in annual main-
tenance.
An impressive policy initiative is the recent cap in
water extractions from the Murray-Darling Basin in
Australia, a region where the diverse pressures of high
water demand, limited water availability, rising pop-
ulation, and land-cover change all intersect. The Mur-
ray-Darling Basin holds 2 X 106 people and portions
of four states, and contributes almost half of Australia's
agricultural output. Two-thirds of its 700 000 km2 of
woodlands have been converted to crop and pasture-
lands (Walker et al. 1993, Jackson et al. 2000). In recent
years, salinization from irrigation and changes in the
water table have reduced agricultural output by 20%
(Anonymous 1990, Greenwood 1992). In response to
increasing evidence that the basin's rivers were de-
clining in ecological health, the Ministerial Council
recently instituted a cap on water diversions to levels
of 1993/1994 development (Blackmore 1999). Basin
states also recently agreed to allocate one-fourth of
their natural river flows to maintaining the ecological
health of the system (Postel 2000).
Human health has also benefited from improved wa-
ter availability for drinking and for sanitation. In 1994,
700 x 106 fewer people were without safe drinking
water than in 1980, even though global population in-
creased by > 109 (Gleick 2000). The percentage of peo-
ple in developing countries with access to safe drinking
water rose from <50% to >75% during the same pe-
riod. In the United States, the annual incidence of wa-
terborne disease from 1970 to 1990 was less than half
that from 1920 to 1940, fewer than four cases per
100000 people.
In the next half century, global population is pro-

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All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Augt 2001 WATh1 IN A CHANOIN(fWORU) 1041
jected to rise at least three times faster than accessible
freshwater runoff (Postel et al. 1996, United Nations
1998). As a consequence, improving the efficiency of
water use will be important for balancing supply and
demand for fresh water and for protecting aquatic eco-
systems (Box 3). Technologies such as drip irrigation
have great untapped potential to reduce water con-
sumption in agriculture. Greater efficiency could be
encouraged through economic incentives and a more
realistic valuation of water and freshwater ecosystem
services. More complete monitoring of the components
of hydrological and biogeochemical cycles, including
measuring water quantity and quality at the same spa-
tial and temporal scales, would also provide better data
for allocating water resources efficiently among com-
peting needs (Rodda et al. 1993). This emphasis is
especially important, because in the last three decades,
more than one-fifth of flow gages on small, free-flowing
streams in the United States have been eliminated
(United States Geological Survey 1999). Additional
priorities include securing sufficient quantity, quality,
and timing of flows to natural systems, critical habitat
preservation in groundwater recharge zones and wa-
tersheds, and continued improvement in pollution pre-
vention (both point and nonpoint sources).
Achieving sustainable water use in the future will
also depend on continued changes in the culture of
water management (National Research Council 1999,
J. S. Baron et al., unpublished manuscript). At least
six federal departments and 20 agencies in the United
States share responsibilities for various aspects of the
water cycle. Coordinating their diverse activities
through a panel with representatives from each de-
partment or through one central agency would en-
courage the development of a well-conceived national
plan for water research and management. The estab-
lishment of a panel of scientists and policy analysts
could also help to define future research priorities and
goals for cross-cutting water issues (Box 3). A good
first step in this process is a plan for a new science
initiative on the global water cycle as part of the U.S.
Global Change Research Program (Hornberger et al.
2001).
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We wish to thank J. Baron, L. Pitelka, D. Tilman, and seven
anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and discussions
on the manuscript. R. B. Jackson gratefully acknowledges
support from the National Science Foundation, the Andrew
W. Mellon Foundation, the Inter American Institute for Global
Change Research, and the Department of Energy. This paper
is a contribution to the Global Change and Terrestrial Eco-
systems (GCTE) and Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological
Cycle (BAHC) Core Projects of the International Geosphere
Biosphere Programme (IGBP).
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