Doctorate in Economics Sciences with High Honours

The Saturday, may 17, 2008, Mr. Kamal EL-OUALY presented and
obtained a Doctorate in Economics Sciences with High Honours from the
Faculty of Economics Sciences of Fez under the title: “The inflation
targeting in emerging countries : Its implementation
opportunities in Morocco”. Chairman : Dr. Esserrhini FARISSI

Kamal.eloualy@yahoo.fr

Le samedi 17 mai 2008, M. Kamal EL-OUALY a soutenu publiquement à la Faculté

des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales de Fès une Thèse de Doctorat en
Sciences Economiques sous le titre : « Le ciblage d’inflation dans les pays émergents :
Opportunités de son application au Maroc ». Le Jury a décerné au Doctorant chercheur
une mention : Très Honorable. Directeur de thèse : Professeur Esserrhini FARISSI

Abstract :

In a context marked by a recasting of the monetary theory and the appearance of new
strategies of monetary policy based on the inflation targeting, this thesis treats that
monetary policy regime implemented in emerging countries. It’s centred on an analysis
as well theoretical as empirical of the regime of inflation targeting. The first part consists
of a theoretical overflight of the literature on the inflation targeting which concern the
conceptual aspects and an analysis showing the supremacy of the inflation targeting rules
on any discretionary policy. The analysis insists on the role of the transparency and the
credibility as a criterion of performance, which might justify any country wishing to adopt
a regime of inflation targeting. These two guiding principles to which tends a regime of
inflation targeting cannot be realized without the respect of some prerequisites such as
the institutional and technical conditions. The analysis of mechanisms of implementing
inflation targeting regime made possible thereafter to evaluate and to study the
experiments of some emerging countries. This reasoning enabled us to draw up the first
reports concerning the practice of inflation targeting regime by these countries. The
lessons extracted from this part will be used as a basis for the second part treating the
case of Morocco. In the second part, the study was focused on the question of inflation in
Morocco in particular about the concept of calculation and measurement of the cost of
living index, about its effects and the choice made by Bank Al Maghrib to calculate the
core inflation. The analysis is then leaning on a diagnosis of the monetary policy control
and exchange policy in Morocco. By basing on an econometric technical in particular the
cointegration test, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Granger causality
test, this study aims at checking the practical scope of the monetary targeting as
alternative anchoring of monetary policy in Morocco. Lastly, this study clarifies if Morocco
respects the principal prerequisites for implementing inflation targeting as monetary
policy framework and approaches the principal challenges to take up before to choose
adopting such regime definitively.

Keys words : Monetary policy ; Target ; Inflation ; CPI ;Taylor Rule; Cointegration ;
VECM ; Anchoring Causality ; expectation,

Kamal.eloualy@yahoo.fr