Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Acknowledgements
I would like to acknowledge the great support that I received preparing this dissertation.
First, to the Becas Chile programme of the Chilean government, for the funding of this
academic project. To have received this funding from a country which faces such urgent and
devastating needs, like ours, is a privilege and an honor. I will take with me the responsibility
Second, I wanted to acknowledge my family for their never-ending support and especially my
wife, Scarlett, who came with me to the other side of the world, to spend our first months as a
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Abstract
Chile has presented falling levels of support for its political representatives. At the same time,
there is growing evidence of deficits in the descriptive representation of various social groups.
In this research, electoral data and data from several surveys are used to study the way these
two aspects are connected. First, data gathered by the United Nations’ Program for
Development is used to characterise the perception of misrepresentation and analyse the levels
of this perception in different social groups of the Chilean population. Second, the descriptive
characteristics of all the candidates of the Chilean presidential elections, since the end of the
dictatorship in 1989, are coded and this information is combined with the historical electoral
results. Finally, five opinion polls implemented by the Chilean NGO, Centro de Estudios
Publicos, are analysed. For the 2013 and 2017 presidential elections, an analysis is made
characteristics and the voting preferences and opinions the respondents hold on the candidates.
analysis for these two elections and the 1993, 1999, and 2005 presidential elections, focusing
on the association between sharing descriptive characteristics and the opinion held on
candidates.
Regarding class representation, evidence is found which is consistent with the descriptive
classes tend to have a stronger perception of misrepresentation by authorities. At the same time,
under some forms of measuring class membership and model assumptions, class distance,
between respondents and presidential candidates, is associated with a more negative opinion
of candidates.
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The findings are not consistent with descriptive representation theory when observing other
characteristics such as gender and geographical origins, or when observing electoral behaviour.
Thus, the findings reinforce the importance of class representation when compared to more
frequently studied descriptive aspects such as gender. Additionally, they suggest that there are
potential benefits from policies aimed at correcting the paradox of class being associated with
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Contents list
Abstract ............................................................................................................................. 3
Contents list ....................................................................................................................... 5
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................... 6
2. Background and literature review .............................................................................. 9
2.1. Meaningful Descriptive Characteristics ....................................................................... 11
2.1.1. Class (Social-Economic) ............................................................................................................. 12
2.1.2. Age ............................................................................................................................................ 17
2.1.3. Gender ...................................................................................................................................... 18
2.1.4. Spatial differences (centre-periphery) ....................................................................................... 18
2.1.5. Ethnicity, race, and cultural origin ............................................................................................. 19
4. Results ..................................................................................................................... 29
4.1. Preliminary analysis ................................................................................................................... 29
4.2. Main analysis: Elites, elections and relationship between elites and non-elites ......................... 40
5. Discussion and conclusion ........................................................................................ 74
5.1. Academic discussion .................................................................................................................. 74
5.2. Policy discussion ........................................................................................................................ 76
5.3. Conclusions and challenges for further research ....................................................................... 76
References ....................................................................................................................... 78
Appendix: Electoral results in presidential elections (since 1989) ...................................... 81
Appendix: Coding categories ............................................................................................ 83
Appendix: Coding of presidential candidates.................................................................... 84
Appendix: Dictionary for variables ................................................................................... 90
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1. Introduction
In 2017, the United Nation`s Development Program (PNUD is its Spanish acronym),
released a book called "Unequals". In this book, the PNUD presented an historical account
of the multidimensional facets of inequality in Chile. There are two elements in this text,
which are crucial in explaining the motivation for the present research: First, the critical
exclusion of important social groups from the Chilean polity. Chilean politicians shared
among themselves several traits which differentiated them from the general population. As
that group. Thus, under such perspective, if politicians were significantly different from the
general population they were failing to represent their constituencies. Second, the PNUD
approach and findings implied the revitalisation of the category of class as essential in the
analysis of exclusion and political representation, alongside the more studied aspects of
Additionally, the analysis of political representation has become especially relevant in the
context of falling levels of support and trust that politicians and candidates are facing in
In the background of the above-mentioned aspects the present research seeks to bring forth
On the one hand, whether the deficits in descriptive representation explain the falling levels
of support for Chilean politicians and candidates is still to be proven. Specifically, in the
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presidential candidates associated with (less) favourable opinions towards those
politicians?
On the other hand, if the answer to the first question is affirmative, why are Chilean
representatives significantly different from the population? There seem to be at least two
this explanation is that Chileans do not vote for candidates that are more like them in
descriptive characteristics, simply because those candidates do not appear on the voting
ballot. A softer version of this explanation is that candidates with elite characteristics have
explanation, from the "demand side", suggests a slightly more complex causal mechanism.
Even if voters have a more positive view of candidates who are more similar to them, it is
possible that this does not translate into their voting behaviour. This apparent paradox may
be the result of the electorate deciding its votes based on other factors, such as substantive
The present research brings suggestive evidence to contribute to the solution of some
This document is structured in the following way: Chapter two, explains the main
conceptual background in the literature that surrounds the debate, including descriptive
representation theory and elite theory. From this literature review, “meaningful” descriptive
Chapter three will describe the origins of the data, including the way the meaningful
descriptive characteristics were operationalised employing the available data. This chapter
will also describe the regression forms, explanatory variables, outcome variables, control
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Chapter four will present the results of the described analysis in two subchapters:
preliminary analysis and main analysis. The preliminary analysis will set the ground for the
elements of the main analysis. Firstly, data obtained by a survey undertaken by the PNUD
Secondly, the presidential candidates for the seven Chilean presidential elections, since the
return of the democratic rule, were coded using the meaningful characteristics. This
analysis will allow to show the restrictions on the options which Chileans face and how
they relate to electoral results. The main analysis will consist of analysing, through the
survey data of Centro de Estudios Públicos (a Chilean NGO), the 2013 and 2017
Finally, chapter 5 will present academic and policy discussions emerging from the research
findings and will summarise the main conclusions and avenues for further research.
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2. Background and literature review
Following the end of Pinochet’s dictatorship, in 1989, there have been seven Chilean
presidential elections. A simple majority rule in two rounds defines the winner of these
elections: If none of the candidates obtains more than 50% in the first round, the candidates
with the two highest majorities pass to a second round of elections (PNUD, 2014). Until 2010,
the ruling coalition was the “Concertacion”, a centre-left coalition. In 2010, President Sebastian
Piñera was elected, backed by a centre-right coalition (PNUD, 2014). The next period (2014-
2018) saw the return of Michelle Bachelet (who was in office during the 2006-2010 period),
as the elected candidate of another centre-left coalition. Finally, in the recent 2017 elections,
Piñera was re-elected, returning into power, backed by a new centre-right coalition (a detailed
Chile has shown declining levels of electoral participation. In the period between 1990 and
2016, Chilean electoral participation has fallen more than 35 points, down to only 50.9%, one
of the sharpest falls in the world (PNUD, 2016). Together with this falling electoral
participation, there has been an important increment in the reported mistrust towards politics,
which grew from 33%, in 1993, to 44%, in 2016 (CERC-MORI, 2016). In line with this trend,
in 1993, when asked for their opinion on the presidential candidates of that period’s elections,
the candidates obtained an average of 31.4% positive mentions. For 2017 the same proportion
was only 25.6%. Even more noticeably, the best-evaluated candidate in 1993, achieved 74.5%
of positive opinions. In 2017, none of the candidates achieved more than 40% of positive
The falling levels of participation and support for presidential candidates have been
accompanied by the perception that politicians have relevant descriptive differences with the
general population (PNUD, 2017). This perception is coherent with deficits in the presence of
certain characteristics of officials in both the Chilean legislature and executive power (PNUD,
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2014; PNUD, 2017). Furthermore, the PNUD (2017) asserts that in Chile there are significant
differences in the real capacity of different groups to exercise their citizenship rights, which
violates the democratic principle of equality. This fact brings a distortion in the way society is
represented in the formal spaces of deliberations and decision making (such as the legislative
and executive) and the characteristics of those who participate in those spaces.
This assertion converges with both Pitkin´s (1972) theoretical perspective of descriptive
representation and the discussions on elite theory (e.g. Mosca, 1939; Pareto, 1935; Michels,
1962). On the one hand, in the descriptive representation perspective, the representative
represent is to be something similar to the represented group. On the other hand, the elite theory
perspectives may be summarised in Mosca's (1939) assertion that "In all societies…two classes
of people appear—a class that rules and a class that is ruled. The first class, always the less
numerous, performs all political functions, monopolizes power and enjoys the advantages that
power brings…" (p.50). While elite perspective means that the people ruling a country are
inherently different from the majority of the population, descriptive representation postulates
that these differences in the characteristics of the “ruling class” necessarily bring incomplete
representation. The combination of these two perspectives presents one of the main
complexities of the relationship between political elites and the non-elite members of the
Discussions on descriptive representation have produced three main lines of research: i) the
relation between the presence of descriptive characteristics in public officials and the tendency
to behave in favour of the interests of groups who share those characteristics (e.g. Bratton &
Ray, 2002; Chattopadhyay & Duflo, 2004; Clots-Figueras, 2011; Celis, 2012; Krook et al.,
2014; McEvoy, 2016); ii) the relationship between descriptive representation of candidates and
voting preferences of the population (e.g. Dolan, 2004; Sanbonmatsu, 2002; Matson & Fine,
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2006; Trent et al., 2010; Campbell & Cowley, 2014a; Carnes & Lupu, 2016), and iii) the
relationship between descriptive representation and trust and satisfaction with public officials
and elected representatives (e.g. Bobo and Gilliam, 1990; Howell and Fagan, 1988;
Mansbridge, 1999 Gay, 2002; Pantoja & Segura, 2003; Ulbig, 2007; Atkeson & Carillo, 2007).
This literature has confirmed the existence, in several contexts, of relevant links between the
descriptive characteristics of candidates and voting preferences and, central to this research, a
tendency for members of social groups to trust elected representatives with similar
characteristics. As Schmidt & Miles (2017) assert: “people from social groups are more trusting
of elected officials from their own social groups…" (p. 187). This tendency to trust similar
representatives may explain why the distorted representation of society, in which elites are
characteristics. Defining those specific traits, to analyse elites and the way non-elites perceive
them, is not trivial. Behind this definition, there is an underlying assumption that having power
in a sphere of society is related to having power in the political sphere. This assumption is the
"agglutinative hypothesis", which states that: "[f]orms of power and influence are
agglutinative: Those with some form tend to acquire other forms also" (Lasswell and Kaplan,
preferences, and trust and support is focused around a vast variety of characteristics including
gender, ethnicity, age, place of residence, education, prior occupation, and class. For this
literature review. One aspect is of particular interest to this study: social class.
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As the PNUD (2017) explains, social class is one of the aspects with the highest descriptive
representation deficiency in most democracies, yet it has not been as widely studied in this
context, as other categories have (e.g. gender and ethnicity) (p.380). The relative lack of
research in the relevance of social class, when analysing the impact of descriptive
representation, comes from a strong consensus in the academic debates originated in the late
seventies (Carnes and Lupu, 2015, p.4). The consensus can be summarised in Putnam (1976)
assertion that even though: "the assumption of a correlation between attitude and social origin
lies behind most studies of the social backgrounds of elites...most of the available evidence
tends to disconfirm this assumption" (in Carnes and Lupu, 2015, p.4). However, this assertion
has become increasingly challenged. As Carnes (2013) explains for the case of the USA: "a
person's class is one of the best predictors of a variety of behaviours…we may not like talking
about class, but it permeates just about everything we do…Including holding public office"
(p.4)
The following subchapters explain how these categories will be operationalised in the context
When asked about the main reasons for mistreatment in the Chilean society, the PNUD (2017)
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Figure 1: Perceived reasons for being mistreated1
Being a man 9
Educational level 23
Age 26
Work or Occupation 26
Other reason 27
Being a woman 41
Social Class 43
0 10 20 30 40 50
As canbe seen in the graph, social class stands out as the main reason for such mistreatment.
Additionally, the qualitative research undertaken by the PNUD (2017), suggests that class may
qualitative findings can be summarised with the following three conclusions (p. 387-388):
• People consider that the political leadership is isolated in its functions and that it does
• People believe that this group (the political leaders) have a different socioeconomic
1
The percentages were calculated for the 41% of respondents who declared having experienced mistreatments. Respondent
could choose more than one alternative.
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Class seems to be in the centre of Chilean social life and mediates several of the interaction in
it. Defining "class" and operationalising such a definition to categorise the Chilean population
is a complex issue, which may be undertaken in several different ways. This research will
mainly rely on a categorisation based on consumption patterns (and indirectly income levels).
However, a complex category like this one has many different dimensions which will be
relevant. Following the PNUD’s (2017) classification, two other elements will be considered:
education and occupation. As expected, all of these elements are strongly correlated and put
together provide a more exhaustive understanding of the multiple implications of class. The
following table summarises some of these relevant relations in the Chilean context:
Non-manual waged
labour in the
services sector and
small enterprise
owners
Middle Class Higher level 15 660.000 12,9
technicians, school
teachers low
ranking
professionals,
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micro-businesses
owners
Higher Middle Professionals, 17,2 1.400.000 10,6
Class and managers, and
Higher Class directives in large
public and private
firms
a. Consumption patterns
As the PNUD (2017, p.71) explains, a well-established nomenclature for social classes in Chile
comes from the marketing industry. Following the European Society for Opinion and
Marketing Research (ESOMAR), since the 1980s, the Chilean population has been classified
Mercado (AIM). This methodology divides the population according to five categories (ABC1,
C2, C3, D, and E). Each household is given a score, according to their ownership of certain
goods –which determines their consumption capacity— (such as refrigerator, car, and
dishwasher, among others) and the level of education of the head of the household. The lowest
10% is assigned to the E category, the following 35% is assigned to the D category, the
following 25% is assigned to the C3 category, and the following 20% is assigned to the C2
category. Finally, the highest category, ABC1, is given to the top 10% of the score (PNUD,
2017, p.71).
A positive aspect of using this classification is that, as the PNUD (2017, p.71) explains, the
classification has become so pervasive in Chilean society, that the category "ABC1" is even
b. Occupation
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Social class definition varies across the literature. However, most definitions are based on
occupational differences (Hout, 2008). Additionally, research has shown significant relevance
Cowley, 2014a).
Following research conducted by Seminarium (Capital, 2014), the PNUD (2017) found that
80% of leadership positions in major firms, operating in Chile, employ people who studied
Law. Following the PNUD classification, these three professions will be considered "elite"
characteristics. Together with these elite occupations, the PNUD (2017) describes "medicine"
as one of the best-remunerated professions, and, together with the mentioned three occupations,
includes it as a "prestige" occupations (p.34). For the purposes of the present research al four
c. Education
High school education and higher education are two particularly informative elements in
determining the socioeconomic origins of the Chilean population and their expected future
incomes (PNUD, 2017, pp. 381-382). As Valenzuela et al. (2014) state, the Chilean schooling
system is considered one of the most extreme cases of socioeconomic status (SES) segregation:
“while low-SES students tend to attend public schools, middle-SES students tend to attend
voucher private schools, and high-SES students tend to attend non-subsidized private schools”
(p. 221). Within this highly segmented context, the PNUD (2017, p.382), elaborated a list of
16 schools, according to the frequencies in which they have been mentioned in prior researches,
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as “elite schools”2 . As expected, the vast majority of them (14) are private non-subsidized
Similarly, having a higher education is also a very informative element in Chilean inequalities.
By 2011, only 28% of the students from the poorest decile accessed higher education. In
contrast, for the highest decile, this proportion was 91% (Espinoza & Gonzalez, 2015).
Accessing higher education and the specific higher institution that accessed are good predictors
of work trajectories and the occupational status of Chileans (PNUD, 2017). A first important
distinction is between universities and other technical higher education institutions (known as
Institutos Profesionales and Centros de Formación Técnica). For example, by 2009, the
average student in technical higher education institutions was at least one decile lower in its
Within university education, a subgroup of two institutions is especially linked with higher
class and elite status: Pontificia Universidad Catolica and Universidad de Chile. An example
of this is the fact that 70% of the professionals, in 80% of the leadership positions in major
firms operating in Chile, obtained their degrees in those two institutions (Capital, 2014 in
PNUD, 2017). Following the PNUD classification, these two institutions will be considered
“elite” institutions.
2.1.2. Age
There are important differences in the average age of politicians in office and the general
population. Between 1990 and 2016, the median age, for Chileans over 18, was 42 years
2
The list corresponds to most frequently named schools in Seminarium (2003), Capital (2014), Thumala
(2007), Madrid (2016) and Zimmerman (2015). The schools are: Alianza Francesa, Colegio Alemán de Santiago, Liceo Alemán
de Santiago, Cordillera, Craighouse, Saint George’s College, San Ignacio El Bosque, Tabancura, Verbo Divino, Instituto Luis
Campino, Sagrados Corazones de Manquehue, Santiago College, Scuola Italiana, The Grange School, San Benito, Newland, Instituto
Nacional and Liceo José Victorino Lastarria
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(PNUD, 2017). For that same period, the median for political authorities (both in the legislative
2.1.3. Gender
For the period between 1990 and 2016, the average participation of male individuals in the
population was 49%. For that same period, the average of male political authorities (both in
Chile has shown a particularly extreme version of the tendency to inequalities in the territorial
distribution of wealth (Veyl, 2015) For example, all the elite schools and universities
mentioned before are in the Metropolitan Region3, where the capital, Santiago, is located. As
Aroca and Atienza (2016) explain: “Chile stands as a classic instance of spatial inequality and
percentage of the population that lives in the Metropolitan Region, which surpasses 40% (see
Figure 2).
3
Chile is divided administratively into 15 regions.
18
Figure 2: Concentration of total population in the Metropolitan Region (1865-2009)
Source: Aroca & Atienza (2016, p.241) based on Chilean Census and CASEN (2009) and (2015)
This economic and demographic differences also have social and political expressions. Since
the XIX Century, the Chilean political system has shown an extreme concentration of power
in the “centre” (where the Metropolitan Region and Santiago are located) of the country (Ortiz
& Valenzuela, 2013). This concentration of power has been disputed by the other regions on
According to the 2012 census, the Mapuche population consists of 1.842.607 inhabitants and
11.1% of the total Chilean population (Castillo, 2016). There is evidence that this element is
an essential descriptive characteristic. On the one hand, it has been shown that voters with
Mapuche background tend to vote for Mapuche candidates (Maureira, S. T., & Jaramillo-Brun,
2014). On the other hand, the PNUD (2017) has shown the lack of individuals with “prestige
An example of the lack of descriptive representation of this groups is that until 2017 there was
no Mapuche MPs and in the period between 1992 and 2016, less than 4, 5% of the candidates
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to local elections were Mapuche (PNUD, 2017, p.380). Furthermore, central to this research,
there has not been any Mapuche presidential candidate since the return of democracy.
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3. Data and Methods
This chapter presents the data and methods. One central element of the method of analysis is
the coding in meaningful categories. The way these categories were operationalised depended
on the conceptual background, the Chilean context and the available information. A summary
For this part of the analysis, the data came from a survey undertaken by the PNUD (2017). This
face-to-face survey had a nation-wide sample population of Chileans, aged over 18, stratified
by region, gender, and socio-economic level. The sample size consisted of 2.613 individuals4.
education/university).
4. Gender (male/female).
6. Age.
4
All the analyses were done taking into account the design effect
5
For this analysis, the respondents were only categorised in terms of the education level (and not the typology of elite/non-
elite educational institutions). Additionally, “elite occupations” category for respondents was broader than that employed to
categorise the candidates, as it included high-level military officials and other high-level professions.
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Education and occupation were used as alternative measurements of class. For this, an index
was constructed in which, a respondent with less education than high school would obtain a
score of 0, one with only high school education would obtain a score of 1, one with higher
technical education a score of 2, and one with a university education, a score of 3. Additionally,
if the respondent had an elite occupation, one more unit was added to the respondent´s elite
index (therefore, the index levels went from 0 to 4). Similarly, the index constructed through
consumption patterns was translated into five levels from 0 to 4 (E, D, C3, C2, and ABC1).
The analysis consisted in observing the associations6 between the descriptive characteristics of
the respondents with the answer given to four questions on the representativeness of authorities.
The four measured questions asked about the representativeness of authorities in the following
matters:
iii) Whether the authorities would do something if there were a “serious problem in my
neighbourhood”.
iv) Whether the authorities are mainly interested in what business owners want.
The responses consisted of five levels from “definitely disagree” to “definitely agree”.
Additionally, the association of these characteristics with having voted in the presidential
elections (the 2013 election) was analysed (the answers were formulated in a simple yes/no
option).
The regression form for the analysis was ordinal logistic for the first four questions and logistic
(1) 𝑌1 = 𝛼 + 𝑧𝛾 + 𝑑𝜋 + 𝑡𝛿
6
The associations were studied while controlling for ideological tendencies (regarding left-right affiliation)
22
(2) 𝑌2 = 𝛼 + 𝑧𝛾 + 𝑐𝜎 + 𝑡𝛿
(3) 𝑌3 = 𝛼 + 𝑘µ + 𝑡𝛿
Where:
4. 𝑑 is the vector of values of the descriptive index of class (based on occupation and
education).
5. 𝑐 is the vector of values of the consumption index of class (based on consumption patterns).
Additionally, as a way of confirming the validity of the class indexes, the association between
the consumption pattern index and the other aspects of the respondents was analysed.
The 40 presidential candidates of the seven elections undertaken since the return of democracy
(for more information on each election see Table 25), were codified in “meaningful” categories.
7
There were no candidates from private subsidised schools
23
5. Geographical differences (Metropolitan Region/non-Metropolitan Region).
6. Gender (male/female).
8. Age.
This classification allowed for a supply-side analysis of all the Chilean candidates, which was
crossed with the electoral results of these candidates, from the official Chilean electoral office
(SERVEL).
For this codification, the data for the candidates came from public information available in
public statements required by Chilean transparency laws, the Chilean Congress’s Library,
newspapers and public information disclosed during the campaigns. The results of this coding
3.2. Main analysis: Elites, elections and relationship between elites and non-elites
For this part of the analysis, the data came from a survey undertaken by a Chilean NGO called,
Centro de Estudios Publicos. This survey, which has gathered opinion polls since the end of
the dictatorship, "…has acquired an uncontested national legitimacy" (Navia, 2003) in the
Chilean political debates. The survey´s sample size has fluctuated at around 1500 elements,
and its sample population is nation-wide Chileans, over the age of 18. It is stratified by gender,
socio-economic level, regions and smaller administrative units (provinces and communes). The
The respondents of the CEP surveys for the 2017 and 2013 elections were codified following
8
All the analyses were done taking into account the design effect
24
Once the data set was modified to include the coded descriptive characteristics, the following
1. In the case of age, a new variable resulting from the difference (in absolute terms)
2. In the case of discrete variables, a new dummy variable which has the value of one
when the characteristics match between the respondent and the candidate.
To test the validity of the class index, through consumption patterns, the correlations between
this measure and all other characteristics were analysed, in the same way as with the PNUD
data, for the 2013 and 2017 elections. As expected, both education and occupation are
significantly associated with this index. However, for 2017, ethnicity is associated with the
index, even when controlling for education and occupation. The same happens with age and
being from the Metropolitan Region for the 2013 elections. It is not possible to distinguish
whether this is an actual association between class and those attributes, which goes beyond
education and occupation, or if it is a problem with the validity of the index. The full regression
The class index, through education and occupation, for respondents was constructed in the
same way as for the respondents of the PNUD (2017) survey. For the candidates, the class
index was constructed by adding the value of the dummies of education (one dummy that
equals one if the candidate studied in private school, another dummy that equals one if the
candidate studied in an elite school, another dummy that equals one if the candidate studied in
an elite university and, finally, another dummy that equals one if the candidate has an elite
occupation). This meant that, as the class index for respondents, the candidates were
9
Since all of the candidates finished high school and only candidates with less than 1% of votes did not finish university, the
level of education was not used as a matching characteristic but was only used to measure class in the respective class index
for the respondents. Similarly, as all of the candidates were non-Mapuche, a matching dummy was not created, and the
ethnicity of the respondents was only used as a control variable.
25
categorised into five groups, from 0 to 4. The distribution of the candidates in this index can
The regressions for the analyses are ordinal logistic regressions for the evaluation of politicians
and multinomial logistic for the voting preferences. When analysing the voting preferences,
candidates with less than 5% of the votes were omitted (the analysis was done initially with all
candidates, with no difference in results). For opinion regressions, all candidates were included
(all respondents were asked to evaluate all candidates). The following are the models’
specifications:
(1) 𝑌3 = 𝛼 + 𝑥𝛽 + 𝑞𝜀
(2) 𝑌4 = 𝛼 + 𝑝𝛾 + 𝑑𝜋 + 𝑞𝜀
(3) 𝑌5 = 𝛼 + 𝑝𝛾 + 𝑐𝜎 + 𝑞𝜀
(4) 𝑌6 = 𝛼 + 𝑥𝛽 + 𝑤𝛾 + 𝑞𝜀 + 𝑤𝛾
(5) 𝑌7 = 𝛼 + 𝑝𝛾 + 𝑑𝜋 + 𝑞𝜀 + 𝑤𝛾
(6) 𝑌8 = 𝛼 + 𝑝𝛾 + 𝑐𝜎 + 𝑞𝜀 + 𝑤𝛾
Where:
3. 𝑥 is the matrix of all variables for matching characteristics (and age difference).
affiliation matching).
5. 𝑐 is the difference between the class indexes of respondents and candidates when
6. d is the difference between the class indexes of respondents and candidates when
26
7. p is the matrix of all variables for matching characteristics which are not class related
education (when this was not incorporated in the respective index), ideology (in terms of right-
left). 10, and ethnic background. Additionally, for the opinion outcomes, a fixed effect variable
for each candidate was incorporated11, as well as controlling for the stated voting preference.
Another important control variable was an ideological distance variable. The candidates were
classified in terms of a right-left scale (following their public definitions, those of their coalition
or party, or according to the perceived political position of the candidates, as presented in one
of the survey’s questions). A “substantive distance” variable was thus created, to control for
this association. This means that the association measured in the explanatory variable can be
understood as the “marginal descriptive association”. This association can then be seen as
either reinforcing the substantive tendency or pushing to defect the political ideology.
The outcome variables were the voting preferences and evaluation given to the candidates.
The opinion consisted in evaluating a list of politicians, including the presidential candidates,
3.2.1. Meta-analysis
A final analysis consisted of implementing a meta-analysis including the data of the CEP
surveys for the elections of 1993, 1999, and 2005. The meta-analysis was conducted on the
10
In the Chilean case, this is a better measure than party affiliation, as less than 30% of the respondents have any affiliation
to any party, compared to almost 50% that has an ideological affiliation in the right-left scale.
11
A fix effect per respondent was also incorporated as an alternative model. The outcomes of this model are
omitted from the presentation. However, details of any significant change when incorporating these variables
are given in footnotes.
27
association between class difference, measured through the consumption pattern index, and
the opinion on the candidates. For this analysis, both “fixed effect” and “random effect”
28
4. Results
This chapter presents the results of the analyses. For clarity purposes, intercepts and control
variables are omitted in the tables presented in the analysis12. The full regressions are shown
in the tables at the end of every subchapter. The variables are defined in the variable
A first analysis is to corroborate that both the approach based on education and occupation and
the approach based on consumption patterns are measuring the same underlying characteristic:
Class_Index_C
University 1.334 1.266
(5.60)** (5.09)**
Higher_Tec 1.674 1.685
(7.34)** (6.99)**
School 2.154 2.110
(12.08)** (11.48)**
Occupation 1.679 1.717
(8.55)** (8.72)**
Age -0.003
(0.67)
Man 0.069
(0.51)
MR 0.115
(0.81)
Non_Native 0.395
12
In parentesis, under the point estimates, are the respective statistics` values
29
(1.70)
N 2,583 2,504
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
The regression shows that education levels and occupation are significantly correlated with
consumption pattern index. Additionally, when controlling for education and occupation, none
of the other descriptive characteristics is significantly associated with the consumption index.
This relationship suggests that both indexes for class measure the same underlying concept,
and that other descriptive characteristics do not explain this concept. Given this confirmation,
the associations with the descriptive characteristic of class were measured in the two ways.
When running the regression between the survey questions and the descriptive characteristics
of the respondents (details of regressions are at the end of this subchapter) the following results
are found:
• Being from the Metropolitan Region significantly increases the odds of having a better
• Being of a higher class (measured in both ways) is associated with a higher belief that
neighbourhood (a similar finding appears with age, but it is not robust to different
measurements of class).
• None of the descriptive characteristics is significantly associated with the belief that
However, the most relevant finding for this research question is summarised in the following
table:
30
Table 3: perception of misrepresentation
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
Class is found to be significant at the 1% level for the question of whether political leaders care
about "people like us" (as well as age). This finding is robust to both ways of measuring class.
This is consistent with the predictions that descriptive representation theory would suggest,
given that people of lower socioeconomic level are underrepresented in the polity. However,
even though other groups are strongly underrepresented, the same significant association is not
Summarizing, from this preliminary analysis two main conclusions are derived:
• The class indexes in both definitions are related to each other and not to other
31
• Perceptions of misrepresentation are associated with class and age (people of lower
32
Full Regressions
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
33
Table 5: Full Perceived Representation 1
People Voters
Like Us
Non_Native 0.226 0.112 0.180 Non_Native -0.647 -0.654 -0.612
(0.47) (0.23) (0.37) (1.60) (1.56) (1.44)
MR -0.109 -0.004 -0.014 MR 0.589 0.704 0.695
(0.52) (0.02) (0.07) (2.89)** (3.45)** (3.42)**
Man -0.041 -0.002 0.027 Man -0.130 -0.101 -0.073
(0.22) (0.01) (0.14) (0.63) (0.48) (0.36)
Age 0.019 0.019 0.022 Age 0.001 0.000 0.004
(2.91)** (3.02)** (3.24)** (0.21) (0.05) (0.49)
Class_Index_C 0.247 Class_Index_C 0.183
(2.67)** (1.62)
2.Ideology 0.737 0.518 0.515 2.Ideology -0.435 -0.525 -0.529
(2.03)* (1.52) (1.47) (1.41) (1.69) (1.67)
3.Ideology 0.756 0.724 0.664 3.Ideology -0.376 -0.403 -0.519
(2.96)** (2.81)** (2.56)* (1.26) (1.35) (1.72)
4.Ideology 0.375 0.340 0.369 4.Ideology 0.044 -0.033 -0.033
(1.12) (1.05) (1.12) (0.12) (0.09) (0.09)
5.Ideology 0.268 0.297 0.273 5.Ideology -0.173 -0.202 -0.258
(1.02) (1.08) (1.01) (0.59) (0.66) (0.86)
cut1 _cons 1.299 0.773 1.089 cut1 _cons -1.697 -2.188 -1.799
(1.81) (1.30) (1.70) (2.20)* (3.46)** (2.58)*
cut2 _cons 3.241 2.738 3.063 cut2 _cons -0.160 -0.659 -0.240
(4.44)** (4.55)** (4.74)** (0.22) (1.12) (0.36)
cut3 _cons 4.212 3.674 4.003 cut3 _cons 0.513 -0.031 0.398
(5.86)** (6.10)** (6.23)** (0.71) (0.05) (0.60)
Class_Index_De 0.227 Class_Index_De 0.080
(2.91)** (0.80)
University 0.085 University 0.223
(0.25) (0.73)
Higher_Tec 0.006 Higher_Tec -0.386
(0.02) (1.43)
School 0.582 School 0.639
(2.23)* (1.89)
Occupation 0.321 Occupation -0.043
34
(1.28) (0.18)
cut4 _cons 6.269 5.712 6.044 cut4 _cons 1.962 1.420 1.857
(7.63)** (8.15)** (8.18)** (2.65)** (2.43)* (2.75)**
N 895 890 890 N 885 880 880
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
35
c
(0.56) (1.45)
School 0.377 School 0.796
(1.41) (2.94)**
Occupation 0.292 Occupatio 0.141
n
(1.30) (0.57)
cut4 _cons 4.934 4.898 5.118 cut4 _cons 4.929 4.222 4.473
(6.36)** (7.58)** (7.15)** (6.29)** (6.16)** (6.37)**
N 893 887 887 N 879 873 873
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
36
4.1.2. Descriptive statistics on elections and the supply side coding
The following graph summarises the distribution of the studied characteristics across all
120,0% 60
100,0% 53 50
100,0%
80,0% 40
82,5% 80,0%
77,5% 77,5%
60,0% 67,5% 70,0% 30
53,8% 52,5%
40,0% 47,5% 20
20,0% 10
0,0% 0
During the period between 1990 and 2016, the presence of these characteristics in the general
Chilean population was the following: 49% were males, 7,7% were educated in private (non-
subsidized) schools, and 17,7% were university educated (PNUD, 2017). Additionally,
according to the 2012 national census, approximately 89% of the population was non-
Mapuche, and by 2015, around 40% of the Chilean population resided in the Metropolitan
Region (Aroca & Atienza, 2016). Finally, although definitions vary, according to the PNUD
(2017), approximately 10% of the population has higher middle class/ high-class occupations
and the Chilean median age (for people over 18) in the 1990-2016 period was 42. In other
words, the overrepresentation of all elite characteristics in the statistics presented in the
37
One first conclusion is that, regarding the puzzle between supply side and demand side factors,
there have not been any candidates who have not finished high-school nor has there been any
candidates with a Mapuche background. Similarly, candidates without a university degree are
scarce (less than 8% of the candidates). Two characteristics which are particularly striking are
having studied in an elite school and an elite university. While these represent a minuscule
proportion of the population, almost 50% of the candidates went to one of these schools, and
This overall image of the characteristics of candidates is somewhat misleading. When the focus
is placed on the candidates with the two highest levels of voting (who pass to the second round),
elite characteristics generally become more prevalent, as can be seen in the following graph:
120,0% 100,0%
100,0% 100,0% 100,0%
100,0%
92,5% 92,9%
100,0% 85,7%
82,5% 85,7%
80,0% 77,5%
71,4%
80,0% 64,3% 70,0%
62,5%
57,1%
60,0% 47,5%
40,0%
20,0%
0,0%
Apart from private schooling and belonging to the Metropolitan Region, all other elite
characteristics are equal or more frequent in the highest voted candidates13. These two highest
majorities, in all of the seven elections, have belonged to the two major political coalitions (the
13
The median age of the top 2 candidates is 60.5 years (omitted form graph for presentation)
38
Even more noticeably, the following graphs present the frequency of the elite characteristics
for candidates who obtained less than 5% (13 candidates) of the votes and those who obtained
120,0%
100,0%
100,0% 95,8% 100,0%
100,0%
100,0% 84,6% 87,5%
76,9% 79,2%
75,0%
80,0% 70,8% 69,2%
62,5% 61,5%
53,8% 54,2% 53,8%
60,0%
40,0% 23,1%
20,0%
0,0%
Practically all of the elite characteristics are less frequent in the candidates with less than 5%
Summarizing, from this preliminary analysis two main conclusions are derived:
except for education level and ethnicity, some alternative candidates possess non-elite
characteristics.
• Historically, voters have tended to vote for candidates who possess elite characteristics.
This tendency is observed even though other candidates, who may have been more
similar to them, did appear on the ballot, supported by parties or coalitions which were
not the traditional ones (who were not from the two main coalitions).
14
Median age for candidates with more than 5% is 53.2 and 54.2 for candidates with less than 5% (omitted form graph for
presentation)
39
4.2. Main analysis: Elites, elections and relationship between elites and non-elites
The following results, both for voting preferences and opinion, should be taken with precaution
before extrapolating to other presidential elections. On the one hand, in the 2017 elections, the
two main centre-right and right-wing candidates (Sebastian Piñera and Jose Antonio Kast),
who concentrated approximately 40% of the votes, both ranked on the top of the class elite
index. On the other hand, the two main centre-left and left candidates (Alejandro Guillier and
Beatriz Sanchez), who concentrated approximately another 40% of the votes, ranked on the
lowest and low levels of the index. This means voters faced unusually large class differences
between ideological lines. Furthermore, the difference in the class index between the two
leading candidates (Sebsatian Piñera and Alejandro Guillier) is the maximum possible, with 4
points. This is the highest difference for the seven elections, and it is mainly due to an unusually
low score of the centre-left candidate (for more details, see Table 28 in the appendix).
Electoral Preferences
When analysing the relevance of matching characteristics (without employing indexes) several
First, for each characteristic, a Wald test is applied to the null hypothesis that the characteristic
every candidate). This null hypothesis is rejected at the 5% threshold for every characteristic,
Second, when focusing on the two main candidates, the main centre-left candidate, Alejandro
Guillier, who is from out of the Metropolitan Region, has better odds of getting a vote from
someone from Santiago (compared to the main centre-right candidate, Sebastian Pinera). That
occupation --Alejandro Guillier has a non-elite occupation-- and age, the relationship follows
40
what descriptive representation theory would predict: people with non-elite occupations and
smaller age difference have higher odds of voting for him (compared with voting Sebastian
Pinera). Gender is non-significant. For the third most voted candidate, Beatriz Sanchez, all of
the matching characteristics are significant, but the geographical matching (she is from out of
the Metropolitan Region), gender matching (she is female) and age, have the opposite effect
than that suggested by descriptive theory (comparing with odds of voting for Sebastian Pinera).
With occupation, however, the relationship is as theory would predict (she has a non-elite
occupation). More in general, while the other descriptive characteristics have mixed or contrary
results to what descriptive theory would suggest, occupation seems to have the expected
To further research whether class descriptive characteristics, such as occupation, are relevant
for this association the two previously explained indexes were employed (one based on
education and occupation and one based on consumption patterns). The results of the regression
between voting preferences and the differences in class indexes of the respondents and the
The results are robust in showing that class difference, measured in both indexes, have a
negative relationship with the odds of voting for a candidate (as well as in age distance). In
conclusion, for the 2017 presidential elections, it seems that the voters were divided across
class lines and that they tended to vote for candidates with similar class characteristics and
ages. However, their relationship with the other descriptive characteristics is non-significant or
Opinion
The following table shows the estimates for the association between all matching descriptive
characteristics and opinion on the candidates (Model (2) controls for voting preference)
41
Table 7: Opinion. Matching Characteristics. 2017
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
Occupation stands out as the only consistently significant descriptive matching variable. This
relationship becomes significant at the 1% level when controlling for voting preference.
A similar exercise as the one done for voting preference is done for the opinion of the
respondents on the candidates. That is, the regression is implemented with class distance
measured with the two class indexes. The result is presented in the following table.
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
42
The result shows that the class of the respondents is significant in both measurements.
However, class distance is only significant when evaluating class in terms of consumption
patterns15.
This relationship remains when controlling for voting preferences, as can be seen, in the
following table.
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
15
When a fix effect per respondent is included, class distance measured by education and occupation becomes significant as
well.
43
Full Regressions
Class_Index_C
School 1.449 1.514
(9.80)** (9.38)**
Higher_Tec 0.896 0.905
(3.40)** (3.45)**
University 0.803 0.783
(2.67)** (2.54)*
Occupation 3.255 3.217
(9.86)** (9.59)**
/ cut1 -3.558 -2.353
(15.58)** (6.78)**
cut2 0.374 1.612
(3.67)** (5.05)**
cut3 3.276 4.621
(21.04)** (13.26)**
cut4 6.017 7.344
(21.70)** (17.31)**
Man 0.223
(1.76)
MR 0.054
(0.41)
Non_Native 0.863
(3.89)**
Age 0.007
(1.74)
N 1,332 1,301
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
44
Table 11: Full. Electoral preferences. 2017
45
Mat_Metropolitan 0.117 _cons 1.223 1.910
(0.29) (0.94) (2.04)*
Mat_Gender -0.055 Alejandro_Guillier Non_Native 0.340 0.151
(0.15) (1.47) (0.74)
Mat_Occupation 3.698 Mat_Metropolitan 0.436 1.007
(9.15)** (3.62)** (9.27)**
Education_Years -0.048 Mat_Gender 0.010 -0.223
(1.01) (0.09) (2.24)*
D_Age -0.067 D_Age -0.058 -0.053
(4.17)** (9.85)** (9.25)**
Ideology 1.545 D_Class_Index_De -0.830
(8.75)** (15.56)**
Age -0.023 Class_Index_De -0.275
(1.85) (5.57)**
_cons -4.978 D_Ideology -0.195 -0.326
(3.18)** (1.88) (2.90)**
Jose_Antonio_Kast Non_Native 13.698 Ideology 1.625 1.453
(22.79)** (24.84)** (24.63)**
Mat_Metropolitan 0.318 Age -0.013 -0.006
(0.48) (2.85)** (1.31)
Mat_Gender 0.776 _cons -1.996 -3.449
(1.21) (3.52)** (7.01)**
Mat_Occupation -0.055 Jose_Antonio_Kast Non_Native 13.759 14.903
(0.06) (69.33)** (90.09)**
Education_Years 0.003 Mat_Metropolitan 0.288 0.151
(0.03) (1.33) (0.70)
D_Age -0.196 Mat_Gender 0.799 0.696
(5.11)** (3.52)** (3.22)**
Ideology 0.117 D_Age -0.178 -0.166
(0.45) (13.41)** (11.80)**
Age -0.168 D_Class_Index_De -0.218
(3.91)** (2.74)**
_cons -5.950 Class_Index_De -0.040
(2.00)* (0.73)
Beatriz_Sanchez Non_Native -0.343 D_Ideology 0.210 0.265
(0.49) (1.58) (1.84)
Mat_Metropolitan -0.168 Ideology 0.171 0.170
(0.36) (1.51) (1.48)
Mat_Gender -0.664 Age -0.155 -0.143
(1.52) (9.76)** (9.30)**
Mat_Occupation 2.847 _cons -6.730 -9.146
(5.28)** (5.71)** (7.64)**
Education_Years -0.012 Beatriz_Sanchez Non_Native -0.704 -0.944
46
(0.21) (2.67)** (4.24)**
D_Age -0.217 Mat_Metropolitan -0.342 0.268
(5.94)** (2.14)* (1.85)
Ideology 1.324 Mat_Gender -0.894 -0.795
(5.71)** (5.43)** (5.56)**
Age -0.154 D_Age -0.227 -0.208
(4.59)** (15.53)** (15.53)**
_cons 5.093 D_Class_Index_De -1.417
(1.91) (17.48)**
N 484 Class_Index_De -0.032
(0.46)
D_Ideology 0.766 0.629
(6.54)** (5.94)**
Ideology 1.720 1.447
(19.69)** (19.95)**
Age -0.151 -0.141
(12.54)** (11.86)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.945
(11.12)**
Class_Index_C -0.385
(2.96)**
D_Class_Index_C -2.885
(11.74)**
Class_Index_C -1.146
(9.23)**
D_Class_Index_C 0.232
(3.93)**
Class_Index_C -0.463
(7.97)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.350
(3.86)**
Class_Index_C 0.200
(2.35)*
D_Class_Index_C -0.752
(8.22)**
Class_Index_C -0.012
(0.15)
_cons 7.026 5.810
(8.68)** (7.80)**
N 3,864 4,064
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
47
Table 12: Full. Opinion. 2017
48
(1.19) (2.86)** (5.25)** (3.84)**
cut4 1.896 1.377 cut3 -0.434 -0.378
(6.71)** (4.80)** (1.27) (0.88)
D_Class_Index_C -0.171 cut4 1.790 1.916
(3.89)** (5.23)** (4.47)**
Class_Index_C -0.154 3Can_Vote 0.158
(3.78)** (0.50)
N 3,349 3,516 4.Can_Vote 0.439
(1.67)
5.Can_Vote 0.109
(0.36)
7.Can_Vote 0.009
(0.03)
8.Can_Vote 0.472
(1.62)
N 3,357 2,849
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
49
Table 13: Full. Opinion given vote. 2017
50
Ideology -0.216 -0.216
(5.20)** (5.35)**
/ cut1 -3.262 -4.040
(8.53)** (10.33)**
cut2 -1.492 -2.231
(3.93)** (5.76)**
cut3 -0.210 -0.928
(0.56) (2.41)*
cut4 2.085 1.318
(5.47)** (3.43)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.186
(3.84)**
Class_Index_C -0.201
(4.41)**
N 2,841 2,989
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
51
4.2.2. 2013 Elections
In these elections, the leading centre-left candidate, Michelle Bachelet, and the main centre-
right candidate, Evelyn Matthei, who together account for over 70% of the votes, present
smaller descriptive differences, compared to 2017 elections. They are both females, from the
Metropolitan Region, and have an elite occupation. The only difference they present is in
their elite index score, since the main centre-left candidate did not assist to a private, elite
school, as the main centre-right candidate did. This means that the difference in the elite
Electoral Preferences
The second most voted candidate, the main centre-right candidate, shows a significant
association with the geographic characteristic (she is from the Metropolitan Region) and for
occupation (she has an elite occupation) and non-significant for gender. The point estimation
for the first two is positive and negative for gender. However, since the base candidate, the
main centre-left candidate, has the same category of region (there are both from the
metropolitan region), occupation (they both have elite occupation) and gender (they are both
females), the results are not relevant for the question on the significance of descriptive
representation: a positive association for one candidate means a negative association for the
other. Therefore, not much can be concluded from this relation. Given that these two candidates
account for 70% of the votes, these elections were not defined by the associations captured in
As for the third most voted candidate, Marco Enriquez Ominami, occupation shows a
significant association, with the expected sign (the candidate had a non-elite occupation) and
so does age. Finally, the fourth most voted candidate, Franco Parisi, shares the elite descriptive
characteristics with the two leading candidates (he is from the Metropolitan Region and has an
elite occupation), except for gender (he is male). Therefore, similarly to the case of voting
52
behaviour between the two first majorities, descriptive representation cannot account for the
voting behaviour of his electorate, in the case of geographic origin and occupation. As for
gender, this last attribute is significant for this candidate and has the sign that descriptive
When employing the two class indexes, the following results are found:
Evelyn_Matthei
D_Class_Index_De -0.298
(1.92)
Class_Index_De 0.155
(1.50)
D_Class_Index_C 0.083
(0.50)
Class_Index_C 0.485
(4.47)**
MarcoEnriquez_Ominami
D_Class_Index_De -0.281
(1.70)
Class_Index_De 0.248
(1.76)
D_Class_Index_C -0.395
(2.33)*
Class_Index_C 0.396
(2.83)**
FrancoParisi
D_Class_Index_De -0.708
(4.02)**
Class_Index_De -0.232
(1.46)
D_Class_Index_C -0.890
(4.41)**
Class_Index_C -0.051
(0.31)
N 4,599 4,770
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
The distance in indexes is not significant for the second main candidate (Evelyn Matthei) and
significant when measured with consumption for the third most voted candidate (Marco
53
Enriquez Ominami). For the fourth most voted candidate, class difference seems to hold
Overall, the results give mixed if not contradictory evidence in terms of the relevance of
descriptive representation.
Opinion
When replicating the exercise implemented for the 2017 elections, analysing the relationship
between matching characteristics and opinion on the candidates, the following results are
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
When evaluating the association with class distance, the following are the results.
16
When a fixed effect variable per respondent is included, age distance becomes significant and negative (as expected by
descriptive representation theory).
54
Table 16: Opinion. Class indexes. 2013
Once again, none of the associations is statistically significant17. This result does not change
17
When a fixed effect variable per respondent is included, age distance becomes significant and negative (as expected by
descriptive representation theory).
55
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
Class (and other descriptive characteristics) distance does not seem to be a significant
variable in its association with the respondents´ opinions, for the 2013 elections.
56
Full Regressions
Class_Index_C
School 1.464 1.739
(8.15)** (8.73)**
Higher_Tec 0.971 0.912
(4.07)** (3.86)**
University 2.149 2.104
(5.09)** (4.95)**
Occupation 1.143 0.935
(3.40)** (2.78)**
/ cut1 -3.934 -2.809
(13.64)** (6.23)**
cut2 0.591 1.765
(5.32)** (4.59)**
cut3 3.934 5.107
(18.94)** (11.92)**
cut4 5.587 6.799
(16.90)** (12.88)**
Man -0.089
(0.53)
MR 0.353
(2.02)*
Non_Native 0.368
(1.25)
Age 0.013
(2.62)**
N 1,384 1,353
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
57
Table 19: Full. Electoral preferences. 2013
58
D_Age -0.048 Mat_Gender 0.676 0.620
(9.49)** (3.52)** (3.40)**
Non_Native -0.595 D_Age -0.039 -0.026
(2.65)** (7.73)** (5.60)**
D_Ideology 0.370 D_Class_Index_De -0.708
(3.06)** (4.02)**
_cons -2.771 D_Ideology -0.345 -0.433
(9.75)** (2.12)* (2.91)**
N 4,590 Class_Index_De -0.232
(1.46)
Ideology -0.879 -0.854
(6.18)** (6.63)**
D_Class_Index_C 0.083
(0.50)
Class_Index_C 0.485
(4.47)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.395
(2.33)*
Class_Index_C 0.396
(2.83)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.890
(4.41)**
Class_Index_C -0.051
(0.31)
_cons 4.510 4.081
(5.44)** (6.10)**
N 4,599 4,770
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
59
Table 20: Full. Opinion. 2013
60
cut3 _cons -0.566 -0.552 cut3 _cons -0.748 -0.660
(1.46) (1.37) (2.20)* (1.74)
D_Class_Index_C 0.009 2Can_Vote -0.109
(0.09) (0.61)
Class_Index_C 0.032 3.Can_Vote 0.380
(0.36) (1.55)
cut4 _cons 1.509 1.545 4.Can_Vote -0.164
(3.75)** (3.73)** (0.73)
N 3,169 3,295 6.Can_Vote 0.044
(0.15)
7.Can_Vote -1.096
(1.04)
8.Can_Vote 0.833
(1.64)
9.Can_Vote 0.204
(0.13)
cut4 _cons 1.324 1.374
(3.69)** (3.44)**
N 3,166 2,927
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
61
Table 21: Full. Opinion given vote. 2013
62
(1.55) (1.59)
D_Age -0.005 -0.003
(1.05) (0.73)
D_Class_Index_De 0.032
(0.55)
D_Ideology -0.694 -0.672
(11.77)** (11.20)**
Class_Index_C 0.005 -0.005
(0.06) (0.05)
Ideology -0.274 -0.256
(5.01)** (4.69)**
cut1 _cons -3.907 -3.889
(9.81)** (8.78)**
cut2 _cons -2.288 -2.213
(5.82)** (5.04)**
cut3 _cons -0.479 -0.446
(1.22) (1.02)
D_Class_Index_C 0.017
(0.16)
cut4 _cons 1.557 1.624
(3.78)** (3.58)**
N 2,930 3,036
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
63
4.2.3. Meta-analysis for class and opinion (1993-2017)
Given the different results on the relevance of class obtained in the 2013 elections and the 2017
elections, a meta-analysis is conducted, with focus on the association between class measured
by consumption patterns and opinion. The reason for omitting the analysis for class in terms of
education and occupation is that occupation of the respondents is only measured in the 2013
and 2017 elections. Additionally, the way education is measured (the possible responses) has
suffered several changes over the last two decades. The class index, through consumption
patterns, has been consistently measured and following the same standardised methodology.
The individual results for the 1993, 1999, and 2005 elections included in this analysis (for
which there was available data) are shown in the following table18.
18
Native American status was not available for the 1993 and 1999 elections. The opinion data for three candidates with less
than 1% of intention to vote were not collected in the 1999 elections
64
The results show that, for two out of the three elections, class distance was significantly
associated with a more negative perception of the candidates19. Combining this with the
previous analysis means class distance was significant in three out of the five analysed
elections. When controlling for voting preference, the results remain similar, as can be seen in
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
Meta-analyses are usually used where several different estimations, obtained in the context of
different studies, are pooled together to give an overall estimation. In this research, meta-
analysis is used to pool together data collected at different moments, allowing for eventual
heterogeneity of the measured associations over time. Following, Hunter and Schmidt (2000),
a first element to define when conducting a meta-analysis is the level of heterogeneity between
the several estimations. Even though in this case the estimations are obtained from samples of
the same population, in terms of being representative of the Chilean electorate, it is possible
that the measured relationship has changed over time and between the different surveys. If this
19
When including a fix effect per respondent, the significance of the associations is the same (non-significant
for 1993 and significant for 1999 and 2005, at the 5% threshold)
65
were the case, a simple pooling together of the data would not be an adequate reflection of this
association and the way it has variated. The meta-analysis will allow to not only measure an
“average” association, but also how much the association has varied between surveys.
To conduct this analysis, first, the meta-analysis is implemented assuming "fixed effect"
The following graph presents the results (in odds ratio) assuming “fixed effect” (association):
66
Figure 6: Class-Opinion Metanalysis. Fixed
67
Figure 7: Class-Opinion Metanalysis. Vote Controlled. Fixed
68
The heterogeneity test (chi-squared) cannot be rejected at the 5% threshold (p=0,19). It is,
therefore, suggestive evidence that it is possible to pool these estimations assuming a "fixed
effect" (association in this case). Under this assumption, the aggregate association is significant
and negative: one additional point in class distance diminishes between 13% (controlling for
voting preference) and 14% (not controlling for vote) the odds of being in a higher category of
public opinion20. This would imply that the association has been present over the measuring
In any case, as the following graphs show, under the assumption of “random effects” or
20
When including a fix effect per respondent, the associations are also significant at the 5% level, for both random and fix
effect models.
69
Figure 8: Class-Opinion Metanalysis. Random
70
Figure 9: Class-Opinion Metanalysis. Vote Controlled. Random
71
Full Regressions
Opinion Opinion –
– Class Class
(1993) (1999) (2005) (1993) (1999) (2005)
Distance Distance
(Given vote)
2Candidate -1.024 -1.372 2Candidate -1.002 -1.370
(8.43)** (12.81)** (8.52)** (12.47)**
3.Candidate 2.042 -0.083 3.Candidate 2.191 -0.071
(12.17)** (0.69) (14.04)** (0.55)
4.Candidate -0.178 -0.622 4.Candidate -0.141 -0.640
(1.44) (5.80)** (1.17) (5.80)**
5.Candidate 0.477 1.570 5.Candidate 0.480 1.592
(2.99)** (16.29)** (3.26)** (15.84)**
6.Candidate -0.219 1.734 6.Candidate -0.220 1.717
(1.35) (18.46)** (1.45) (16.99)**
Mat_Metropolitan -0.148 -0.057 -0.009 2Can_Vote -0.175 -0.005
(1.83) (0.73) (0.13) (0.63) (0.04)
Mat_Gender -0.064 -0.107 0.130 3.Can_Vote -0.271 -0.356
(0.98) (1.65) (2.02)* (1.69) (4.48)**
D_Age 0.037 0.006 0.005 4.Can_Vote -0.220 -1.006 -0.590
(1.23) (2.02)* (1.44) (0.70) (1.91) (3.02)**
D_Class_Index_C -0.035 -0.132 -0.237 5.Can_Vote -0.082 -0.363
(0.53) (2.44)* (4.13)** (0.44) (1.18)
D_Ideology -0.533 0.134 -0.644 6.Can_Vote 0.124 -0.608
(15.72)** (4.04)** (20.45)** (0.54) (1.96)
Ideology -0.133 0.088 Mat_Metropolitan -0.237 -0.053 0.006
(4.62)** (3.58)** (2.65)** (0.62) (0.09)
Class_Index_C 0.009 -0.154 -0.133 Mat_Gender -0.088 -0.141 0.134
(0.15) (3.03)** (2.83)** (1.40) (2.04)* (2.01)*
/ cut1 -3.911 -1.441 -4.843 D_Age 0.029 0.006 0.005
(17.80)** (7.04)** (17.49)** (1.00) (1.80) (1.45)
cut2 -1.892 0.319 -3.248 D_Class_Index_C -0.029 -0.148 -0.246
(9.29)** (1.58) (11.93)** (0.49) (2.55)* (4.01)**
cut3 -0.290 1.417 -1.920 D_Ideology -0.545 0.122 -0.673
(1.45) (6.97)** (7.15)** (16.06)** (3.50)** (20.75)**
cut4 1.648 3.576 0.566 Ideology -0.112 0.034
(7.82)** (16.88)** (2.11)* (3.52)** (1.12)
mb_p15_ 3.Candidate -0.333 Class_Index_C -0.018 -0.160 -0.172
72
(3.00)** (0.36) (2.84)** (3.36)**
Non_Native -0.017 / cut1 -4.100 -2.065 -5.143
(0.10) (15.23)** (5.34)** (16.66)**
N 7,081 3,334 3,504 cut2 -2.105 -0.345 -3.517
(8.02)** (0.90) (11.60)**
cut3 -0.523 0.689 -2.226
(2.01)* (1.79) (7.46)**
cut4 1.427 2.790 0.247
(5.34)** (7.17)** (0.84)
mb_p15_ 3Candidate -0.326
(2.79)**
3Can_Vote -0.381
(1.01)
Non_Native 0.001
(0.01)
N 6,534 2,965 3,296
* p<0.05; ** p<0.01
73
5. Discussion and conclusion
This chapter presents discussions that branch out from the results of the research and the main
inferable conclusions. The discussions are divided into "academic discussions" and "policy
discussions". As expectable, the two are connected, but such a distinction is implemented for
clarity purposes.
Regarding the academic debates, one of the most relevant findings is the evidence that class
matters in terms of descriptive representation. This may seem like a fairly modest assertion,
however, given the academic landscape of the last decades, this is not a trivial finding. In this
research, class seems more relevant in descriptive representation than other much more studied
One of the expressions of the recent reincorporation of class in the debates over descriptive
representation has been the surge of survey experiments to test the relevance of this attribute
in the relationship between candidates and the general population, by making the respondents
choose between two hypothetical candidates variating in their class characteristics (e.g.
Hainmuller et al., 2014; Carnes & Lupu, 2016; Campbel & Cowley, 2014a, Campbel &
Cowley, 2014b).
Within this emerging literature, the present research brings forth three relevant elements.
First, as was already mentioned, most of the research has been undertaken in well-established
democracies21. Relatively “new democracies”, like the Chilean one, present different
challenges and relationships. One of them is, undoubtedly, the implementation of the
21
An exception is Carnes and Lupu (2016), who incorporates this discussion to the context of Argentina
74
Second, this research has shown that the associations found in electoral relationships need not
be equal to those that organise public support. In other words, there is a necessity to study these
two aspects separately: an attribute that may not mobilise votes may mobilise public opinion.
Examples such as Campbel & Cowley, (2014a), in which along with electoral preferences,
broader issues of perception of candidates are studied seem to show this is an important aspect.
Finally, this research shows the importance of complementing survey experiments and other
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) studies with observational studies such as this one.
There is a relative consensus that in "low information" decisions, voters decide by resorting to
(Hamilton 1981). In this sense, one of the more challenging aspects of interpreting the results
of several survey experiments is that it is not clear that the sort of information that the
respondents are exposed to in the experiments (low information races) is relatable to the sort
of information to which electors are exposed22. This is especially relevant as candidates react
are presented with different sources of information from which it may be difficult to discern
the truth. Furthermore, this difficulty variates across attributes. While an attribute such as
characteristics), class is harder to recognise. It is harder to presume that in real life elections a
relatively uninterested voter would know the prior occupation or income of a candidate. The
fact that this research has shown that, despite this difficulty, class is associated with differences
22
Typically in these survey expermients, the respondents would be faced with short descriptions of hypothetical candidates
differing in the studied characteristic.
75
5.2. Policy discussion
The research presents suggestive evidence that, regarding policy, if an objective is to improve
public opinion on politicians, having more candidates that represent class diversity may help.
This is of particular interest given the recent context of Chile, which implemented gender
quotas in the latest parliamentary elections. The fact that gender and ethnicity (the latest
parliamentary elections also saw the election of the first Mapuche MP since the return of
democracy) has dominated the debates may explain why these two have been the first to be
tackled. Additionally, the fact that implementing gender quotas is a relatively simple measure
which cannot be easily replicated for class may have also contributed to it.
This research has shown that class is associated to public opinion while giving mixed or
contradictory evidence on its relevance for voting preferences. Thus, fruitful public policies
could be devised to address this apparent inconsistency. Government policies that promote
class diversity in representation may be relevant to improve the perception of the public on
politicians. However, the way in which such policy would be enacted is less clear. Since the
implementation of quotas, in this case, does not seem possible, other measures such as political
The present research has brought forth evidence that the members of lower classes (and
elite. Additionally, this research has shown the over-representation of elite characteristics in
the Chilean presidential candidates and has also presented evidence that class distance is
associated with a more negative public perception of those candidates. However, somewhat
76
(such as class) and voting preferences do not seem to be positively associated, as would be
Class distance was not found to be significant when measured with an alternative measurement
of class (through education and occupation). Due to the available data, it was not possible to
confirm the mentioned associations through a meta-analysis. As more data becomes available,
A relevant shortcoming of this research, which will hopefully be overcome by future research,
is associated to the particular type of election studied: presidential election. This is uninominal
and national, and therefore does not allow for as many variations and detail analysis as
subnational elections which, also, may show higher variations in the characteristics of
candidates. (For example, there are mayors and parliamentary members who do belong to the
Mapuche people). Further development for this research would be to replicate it in the
subnational level, such as local governments and the legislative. This could provide more
Hopefully the findings of this research will help promote such research at the sub-national level
77
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Appendix: Electoral results in presidential elections (since 1989)
Table 25: Electoral results in presidential elections since the return of democracy
81
2013 6.585.808 Franco Aldo Parisi Fernandez 666.015 10,11%
82
Appendix: Coding categories
Table 26: Coding map for descriptive characteristics
law”) recognizes last names (of either the father or mother) as evidence of affiliation to an indigenous group, such as
Mapuche. A list of frequent Mapuche last names is available in Painemal (2011). In respondents, belonging to an ethnic
group is one of the self-reported elements of the identification module.
83
Appendix: Coding of presidential candidates
Table 27: Candidates Coding
Electi Candida Fin Tech Unive Priva Elite Elite Elite Age Male Metr Non- Information source29
on tes (first ish nical rsity te Scho Unive Occu opolit Mpa
year round) ed Highe (non- ol rsity patio an uche
Hi r subsi n Regio
gh Educ dized n
Sc ation schoo
ho l)
ol
29
All information from internet retrieved on 20 June 2018
30
Seminarist. The Episcopal Seminar of Santiago has an agreement with the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, through which seminarist may obtain a university degree in theology.
However, for the analysis, the candidate was considered to hold a vocational (technical) degree.
84
Eduard 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 51 1 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Eduardo_Frei
o Frei _Ruiz-Tagle
Ruiz-
Tagle
Cristián 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 43 1 1 1 http://www.anim.cl/la-anim-estrena-directiva-y-renueva-su-gestion/
Reitze http://impresa.lasegunda.com/2017/07/28/A/U0372HUQ/OM3732D3
Campos https://web.archive.org/web/20131017104517/http://blog.felipebarriga.cl/do
31 wnloads/servel_junaeb/inscritos/INSCRI13V.txt
http://www.caras.cl/tag/cristian-
reitze/http://diario.elmercurio.cl/detalle/index.asp?id={eef3c6ee-b758-42df-
8281-9363ba123712}
Arturo 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 70 1 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Arturo_Aless
Alessan andri_Besa
dri Besa
José 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 45 1 1 1 http://www.josepinera.org/josepinera/jp_jp.htm
Piñera http://ciperchile.cl/2010/11/11/verbo-divino-los-secretos-y-el-poder-del-
Echeñiq colegio-favorito-de-la-elite/ https://www.sebastianpinera.cl/biografia/ (implicit
ue birth in Santiago)
1999 Arturo 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 60 1 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Erwin_Arturo
Frei _Frei_Bol%C3%Advar
Bolívar
Sara 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 47 0 1 1 http://diario.elmercurio.cl/detalle/index.asp?id={cef0abbc-0c94-40d4-8eb5-
María e33fa61ab886}
Larraín
Ruiz-
Tagle
Gladys 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 59 0 0 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Gladys_del_C
Marín armen_Mar%C3%ADn_Millie
Millie
Tomas 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 43 1 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Tom%C3%A1
Hirsch s_Ren%C3%A9_Hirsch_Goldschmidt
Goldsch
midt
Ricardo 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 61 1 1 1 https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ricardo-Lagos
Lagos
Escobar
31
Finished university studies after being a candidate. For the analysis only the technical degree was considered
85
Joaquin 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 46 1 1 1 http://www.joaquinlavin.cl/#Resumen_y_datos_biograficos
Lavin
Infante
2005 Sebasti 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 56 1 1 1 https://www.sebastianpinera.cl/biografia/
án
Piñera
Echeñiq
ue
Michell 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 54 0 1 1 https://www.britannica.com/biography/Michelle-Bachelet
e http://www.uchile.cl/portal/presentacion/historia/grandes-figuras/presidentes-
Bachele de-chile-ex-alumnos-de-la-u/22624/michelle-bachelet-jeria
t Jeria
Tomas 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 49 1 1 1 Previously given
Hirsch
Goldsch
midt
Joaquín 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 52 1 1 1 Previously given
Lavin
Infante
86
2013 Franco 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 46 1 1 1 https://web.archive.org/web/20120508205841/http://parisielpoderdelagente.c
Aldo l/site/bienvenidos/ (spent a few years in Instituto Nacional, but finished in
Parisi military school)
Fernand
ez
Marcel 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 56 1 1 1 http://www.lasegunda.com/Noticias/Nacional/2013/09/880126/las-razones-
Claude del-candidato-marcel-claude-desciendo-de-un-zapatero-frances-anarquista
Reyes https://www.publimetro.cl/cl/candidatos/2013/05/03/marcel-claude.html
Ricardo 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 63 1 0 1 http://ricardoisraelpresidente2014.blogspot.com/p/programa-de-
Israel gobierno.html
Zipper http://www.lasegunda.com/Noticias/Impreso/2013/09/879010/las-mil-y-una-
historias-de-ricardo-israel-el-centro-perdido-que-quiere-representar-el-
candidato
Marco 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 40 1 1 1 Previously given
Enrique
z-
Omina
mi
Gumuci
o
Roxana 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 46 0 1 1 https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bachelet-es-
del mentira_b_4175429.html?guccounter=1
Carmen https://web.archive.org/web/20130529230356/http://roxanamiranda.cl/roxan
Mirand a-miranda/
a
Menese
s
Michell 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 62 0 1 1 Previously given
e
Bachele
t Jeria
Evelyn 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 60 0 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Evelyn_Matt
Matthei hei_Fornet
Fornet
Alfredo 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 66 1 1 1 http://www2.latercera.com/noticia/alfredo-sfeir-el-economista-y-lider-
Sfeir espiritual-que-aspira-a-llegar-a-la-moneda/ Servicio de Registro Civil e
Younis Identificación, Circunscripción: Recoleta, Nro. inscripción: 1.898, Año: 1947
(infromation on place and date of birth)
Tomás 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 50 1 1 1 https://www.bcn.cl/historiapolitica/resenas_parlamentarias/wiki/Tom%C3%A1
Jocelyn- s_Jocelyn_Holt_Letelier
87
Holt
Letelier
88
Table 28: Class Index for Candidates
Marco
Francisco Javier Sara María
Eugenio Pizarro Michelle Enríquez- Marcel Claude Jose Antonio
Errázuriz 4 2 Larraín Ruiz- 2 2 3 2 4
Poblete Bachelet Jeria Ominami Reyes Kast Rist
Talavera Tagle
Gumucio
Sebastián
Patricio Aylwin Eduardo Frei Gladys Marín Tomas Hirsch Ricardo Israel Sebastián Piñera
2 4 0 3 Piñera 4 2 4
Azócar Ruiz-Tagle Millie Goldschmidt Zipper Echenique
Echenique
Marco
Cristián Reitze Tomas Hirsch Joaquín Lavin Eduardo Frei Enriquez- Alejandro
3 3 3 4 3 0
Campos Goldschmidt Infante Ruiz-Tagle Ominami Guillier Alvarez
Gumucio
Roxana del
Arturo Ricardo Lagos Carmen Beatriz Sanchez
4 3 0 1
Alessandri Besa Escobar Miranda Munoz
Meneses
Marco Enríquez-
José Piñera Joaquin Lavin Michelle
4 3 2 Ominami 3
Echeñique Infante Bachelet Jeria
Gumucio
Evelyn Matthei Eduardo Artes
4 0
Fornet Brichetti
Tomás Jocelyn-
4
Holt Letelier
89
Appendix: Dictionary for variables
Table 29: Variables dictionary
90