SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEBANGSAAN DATO’ JAAFAR

MATHEMATICS (M) COURSEWORK 950/4

YEAR 2018

TITLE: PROBABILITY OF DIFFERENT COLOURS AND NUMBERED PAPERS

BEING PICKED

NAME:

CLASS: SEMESTER 2 – MATH

I/C NUMBER:

TEACHER NAME:
INTRODUCTION
The subject of probability is a branch of mathematics dedicated to building models to
describe conditions of uncertainty and providing tools to make decisions or draw conclusions on
the basis of such models. In the broad sense, a probability is a measure of the degree to which an
occurrence is certain or uncertain. Probability is quantified as a number between 0 and 1, where
0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.

The experimental probability refers to the probability of an event is defined as the ratio
of the number of times the event occurs to the total number of trials performed when an
experiment was conducted. As a consequence of this definition, experimental probability is not a
fixed value but varies depending on the particular set of trials on which it is based.

The empirical probability is an estimated probability based upon previous evidence or

experimental results. Statistically, empirical probability can be explained as an estimator that
an event will occur, it based upon how often the event is obtained after collection of data or
performing an experiment and usually in the form of a large number of trials.

Hence, experimental probability and empirical probability are actually the same. Both
have the same mathematical formula.

The theoretical probability refers to the probability of an event is calculated by using

one’s knowledges about a situation, some logical reasoning, and/or known formula without
conducting any experiment. It attempts to predict what will happen based upon the total number
of outcomes possible.

As the number of trials keeps increasing, the experimental probability tends towards the
theoretical probability. To see this, the number trials should be sufficiently large in number.

Randomness is the lack of pattern or predictability in events. A random sequence of

events, symbols or steps has no order and does not follow an intelligible pattern or combination.
Individual random events are by definition unpredictable, but in many cases the frequency of
different outcomes over a large number of events (or "trials") is predictable.

In the coursework, whether the proportions of paper of the colour of interest is close to
the actual proportions need to be investigated. Experiment with different number of trials is
needed. Observation based on the results will be carried out and related to randomness. Whether
the proportion of times the colour of interest occur randomly need to be investigated and the
assumption about the nature of the possible outcomes need to be found. Investigation whether
the proportions of paper of the colour of interest with different number is close to the actual
proportions need to be done. Actual proportion of it will also be found.
METHODOLOGY
In this coursework, 50 pieces of green, blue and purple colour papers were prepared. It
means there were 50 pieces of green colour papers, 50 pieces of blue colour papers and 50 pieces
of purple colour paper with the same size. The 50 pieces colour papers of each colour have been
numbered 0 or 1.

All the colour papers were put in a covered box and jumbled up. This can help us to make
sure the randomness in picking up a paper out of 150 pieces papers.

A piece of paper was picked randomly and its colour was recorded down. Then, the paper
was replaced back into the box and all the papers were jumbled up again before the next paper
being picked. This process was repeated for 20, 30, 40 and 50 times. The results were recorded
and showed in table form. As the colour of interest is blue, the proportions of times the blue
colour papers appears can be calculated by using this formula:

𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑏𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑐𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑

Proportion of blue colour papers =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑘𝑒𝑑

We observed the tabulated results of the experiment above that we did before to find
that whether the same outcome happens a few times in a row. If there were same colour papers
that being picked repeatedly, then it means that the same outcome happened a few times in a
row. If the same outcome happens too many times in a row, the results of this experiment is not
so random.

Same experiment as above was repeated for 500, 1000, 5000 and 10000 trials by
simulation. The simulation is done by using the simulation model provided by a website named
“Shodor” ( http://www.shodor.org/interactivate/activities/Marbles/ ). The data and details of the
experiment was used in the simulation model to get the results.

For question 4, a piece of paper was picked and its number and colour were recorded.
This process was repeated for 50 times, the results were tabulated in a contingency table.

Colour
Green Blue Purple Total
Number
0

Total
 From this contingency table, we calculated the conditional proportions by using this
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
formula : P(𝐴|𝐵 ) = . A indicated the event concerned and B indicated the condition for
𝑃(𝐵)
the experiment.
RESULTS
The colour of interest was decided to be blue. A piece of green colour paper was randomly
picked and recorded. The green colour paper was returned into the box and the papers were
jumbled up again before another paper was picked. The experiment was repeated for 20, 30, 40
and 50 times. The results of the experiment were recorded and showed in the Table 1 as below.

Key: G = Green colour, B = Blue colour, P = Purple colour, n = number of trials.

Number of trials, n 20 times 30 times 40 times 50 times

1 G B B P
2 B G G G
3 P P B P
4 P P B B
5 G G G G
6 P P P P
7 G P P P
8 G B G G
9 P B B B
10 P G P G
11 G G P P
12 B B P G
13 G P G P
14 G P P B
15 P B B B
16 P G G G
17 G G P B
18 G P B B
19 B P G G
20 P G P P
21 B G B
22 P G P
23 G G P
24 G P B
25 P P G
26 G P P
27 G B P
28 P G B
29 G P G
30 B B P
31 P P
 32 P B
33 B P
34 G P
35 P G
36 G B
37 P G
38 B G
39 G B
40 G P
41 B
42 P
43 G
44 B
45 G
46 P
47 P
48 P
49 G
50 B
Table 1 : Results of the colour paper picked randomly

According to the results obtained through the experiment, the proportions of times the
colour of interest appears were found and showed in the table below.

20 30 40 50
Number of trials
Colour n p n p n p n p

Blue 3 3 7 7 10 10 15 15
= 0.15 = 0.23 = 0.25 = 0.30
20 30 40 50
Table 2 : Number of trials and the proportions of interest occur
1
The actual proportion of the blue colour paper picked which is or approximately 0.3333
3
is different from the proportions obtained above. However, we can see that the proportions
obtained from the experiment are getting closer to the actual proportion as the number of trials
increases.

From the information above, we can know that In order to obtain the actual proportion,
the experiment with replacements should be repeated for a few more times. By repeating the
experiment, random error can be minimized and the data obtained will be more accurate and
reliable.
 From the results that showed in Table 1 above, it can be noticed that the same outcome
happened a few times in a row. If this observation happens extensively, it means the data is not
so random. If this observation does not happen extensively, it means the data is random.

The proportion of times the blue colour paper is said to be occurring randomly. This is
because the same outcome (blue) does not happen too many times in a row.

The assumption about the nature of the possible outcomes in this experiment is each
coloured papers (green, blue and purple) has the equal chance to be chosen. This means the data
obtained is random.

The experiment above was repeated for simulation and the Table 3 below showed the
results of simulation for 500, 1000, 5000 and 10000 trials.

Number of trials 500 1000 5000 10000

Colour n p n p n p n p

158 319 1617 3328

Blue 158 500 319 1000 1617 5000 3328 10000
= 0.316 = 0.319 = 0.3234 = 0.3328
169 326 1621 3297
Green 169 500 326 1000 1621 5000 3297 10000
= 0.338 = 0.326 = 0.3242 = 0.3297
173 355 1762 3397
Purple 173 500 355 1000 1762 5000 3375 10000
= 0.346 = 0.355 = 0.3524 = 0.3397
Table 3 : Number of trials and the proportions of interest occur for simulation

Based on the data above, we can deduce that the greater the number of trials, the closer
1
the proportion of times the colour papers to the actual proportion, which is 3
or approximately
0.3333.
 A piece of paper was randomly picked from the box, the colour and number of it were
recorded down. This process was repeated for 50 times and the data obtained was tabulated in a
contingency table.

Colour
Blue Green Purple Total
Number
0 10 9 7 26

1 8 7 9 24

Total 18 16 16 50

Table 4 : Result of picking the numbered colour papers

Based on the contingency table above, the conditional proportion of the colour of the
interest, blue given that the number on the paper is 0 or 1 can be calculated. We let B represents
blue colour papers, 0 and 1 represents the number 0 and number 1 marked on the colour papers
(𝐴∩𝐵)
respectively. The formula, P(𝐴|𝐵 ) = was used in the calculation of conditional
𝑃(𝐵)
proportion of the colour of interest, blue.

The conditional proportion of blue colour papers when the number on the colour papers is 0.
(𝐵∩0)
P(𝐵|0) =
𝑃(0)
10
( )
50
= 26
( )
50

5
=
13
= 0.3846

The conditional proportion of blue colour papers when the number on the colour papers is 1.
(𝐵∩1)
P(𝐵|1) =
𝑃(1)
8
( )
50
= 24
( )
50
1
=
3
= 0.3333
 The actual proportion of the colour papers with number 0 and 1 was recorded in the
Table 5 below.

Colour
Blue Green Purple Total
Number
0 11 9 7 27

1 9 8 6 23

Total 20 17 13 50

Table 5 : Actual proportion of the colour papers with number 0 and 1

The actual proportion of blue colour papers when the number on the colour papers is 0.
(𝐵∩0)
P(𝐵|0) =
𝑃(0)
11
( )
50
= 27
( )
50

11
=
27
= 0.4074
The actual proportion of blue colour papers when the number on the colour papers is 1.
(𝐵∩1)
P(𝐵|1) =
𝑃(1)
9
( )
50
= 23
( )
50

9
=
23
= 0.3913

The proportion of P(𝐵|0) is close to the actual proportion but the proportion of P(𝐵|1)
is not close to the actual proportion. Hence, the experiment need to be repeated for a few more
times in order to obtain the actual proportion. This is because by repeating the experiment, the
occurrence of random error can be minimized. Then, the proportions obtained will be very close
to the actual proportions.
CONCLUSION
1
The colour of interest chosen is blue, its actual proportion is 3
or approximately 0.3333.
From the results, the proportion of blue colour papers we get is 0.15 when the experiment was
repeated for 20 times. In order to obtain the actual proportion, we repeated the experiment for
a few more times to minimize the random error.

There were some outcomes that happened a few times in a row. This is accepted as the
colour papers were picked randomly. However, if the same outcome happens in a row too often,
there can be an error due to randomness. For example, if the papers replaced into the covered
box is not jumbled up, there is a high probability for the same colour paper to be picked again.

A simulation model was used in this experiment to do assumptions for large number of
trials. The proportions of blue colour papers was obtained by using simulation model when the
number of trials is large. In general, the greater the number of trials, the closer the proportion of
blue colour papers to the actual proportion.

The proportion of P(𝐵|0) is close to the actual proportion but the proportion of P(𝐵|1)
is not close to the actual proportion. Hence, the experiment should be repeated for a few more
times in order to obtain the actual proportion as the occurrence of random error can be minimized.

In short, the theory of probability is very important to everybody because we need it to

make predictions effectively.
REFERENCES
Probability https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
http://awarnach.mathstat.dal.ca/~joeb/biol3046/PDFs/T4_Probability.pdf

Experimental Probability https://www.encyclopedia.com/education/news-wires-white-

papers-and-books/probability-experimental

Empirical Probability https://math.tutorvista.com/statistics/empirical-probability.html

https://magoosh.com/statistics/what-is-empirical-probability/

Theoretical Probability http://www.statisticshowto.com/theoretical-probability/

https://explorable.com/experimental-probability

Randomness https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness