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• US stocks fell: S&P 500 retreated 0.5% as Table: Daily Market Movement (Mar 3, 2015)
Feb auto sales fell short of expectations Equity Market Indices Close Change % Commodity Futures
attributed to poor winter weather and U.S. Energy & Metals Close %
technology stocks also pulled back after a S&P 500 Index 2,107.78 -9.6 -0.5% WTI Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 50.52 +1.9%
Dow Jones Industrial Average 18,203.37 -85.3 -0.5% Brent Crude (USD/bbl) 61.02 +2.5%
strong run recently. NASDAQ Composite Index 4,979.90 -28.2 -0.6% Natural Gas (USD/MMBtu) 2.71 +0.5%
• Europe stocks fell: Stoxx 600 fell 0.9% as Europe COMEX Gold (USD/oz) 1,204.4 -0.3%
DAX fell 1.1% despite Germany’s Jan retail Stoxx Europe 600 Index 387.68 -3.6 -0.9% LME Copper (USD/MT) 5,905.5 0.0%
DAX Index 11,280.36 -130.0 -1.1% Bond Yields & CNY
sales came in higher than maker’s Japan U.S. Treasuries - Yields Close Change
expectation, gaining 5.3% year-on-year. TOPIX Index 1,526.83 +1.9 +0.1% 3-Month - Yield (%) 0.01 0.00
Nikkei 225 Stock Average 18,815.16 -11.7 -0.1% 5-Year - Yield (%) 1.61 +0.03
• China stocks fell: Hang Seng China
China / Hong Kong 10-Year - Yield (%) 2.12 +0.04
Enterprise and CSI 300 fell 2.2% and 2.6% Hang Seng Index 24,702.78 -184.7 -0.7% 30-Year - Yield (%) 2.71 +0.03
respectively as Chinese banks fell 1.5%– Hang Seng China Enterprises 11,945.25 -268.5 -2.2% USD/CNY Close %
3%, following China’s rate cut last Shanghai SE Composite 3,263.05 -73.2 -2.2% China Renminbi Spot 6.27 +0.0%
Data Source: Bloomberg L.P.
weekend. Meanwhile, Macau casino stocks
rebound on better than expected gross
gaming revenue in Feb.
Hot News: The RBA kept rate unchanged but AUD upside
may be limited
Chart: AUD/USD – Daily chart Citi analysts’ view:
• The only material difference between the Mar and
Feb statements was the removal of “the fall in energy
prices can be expected to offer significant support to
consumer spending”.
• The recent pick-up in petrol prices may have promoted
0.7915-0.7971 this removal. Whatever the cause, its removal would be
(channel top ,55MA)
an argument for cutting sooner rather than later.
• On balance we lean towards a 25bp cut at the May
0.7626 (Feb low)
Board meeting when the Bank will have its updated
economic forecasts, which we suspect may show a
Source: Citi, as of Mar 3, 2015 further slight downgrade to the growth outlook.
• For AUD, should the dollar continues higher broadly,
AUD/USD rebounded yesterday
• There was no change in the cash rate at yesterday’s the move should be particularly short-lived. The fact
RBA Board meeting, following the 25bp cut last that the RBA hinted further cuts could come may also
month. serve to limit upside.
• The market had priced 15bps of a cut prior to the • On technical analysis(chart), AUDUSD still remains
decision being announced and the market had in a bearish channel. Resistance levels are at 0.7915-
expected a quick follow-up after the Feb easing. 23 (channel top) and 0.7971 (55MA).
• AUD/USD rebounded sharply by 0.7% to close at • A breach of the trend low at 0.7626 would leave the
0.7817 yesterday, outperforming other major way for a move to the channel base to be tested at
currencies. 0.7393.
© 2015 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited 1
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
• AUD rebounded: There was no change in the cash rate at yesterday’s RBA Board meeting.
• NZD rose: The GlobalDairyTrade price index rose 1.1% at today’s auction.
• GBP pared loss: U.K. Construction PMI rose from 59.1 to 60.1 in Fec, topped market expectations.
• CAD advanced: Canada GDP rose from 2.0% to 2.8% (YoY) in Dec 2014, topped market estimates.
Daily FX Focus
GBP/AUD Outlook:
• Despite AUD’s recovery yesterday, the
policy stance of the RBA remains dovish
as it said further easing of policy may be
appropriate over the period ahead.
• Given the weak jobs data, capex
expectation for FY16 and soft income data,
we expect the RBA may cut the rate by
25bps in May Board meeting, when the
Source: Bloomberg L.P., data as of Mar 4, 2015 bank may downgrade the growth outlook.
This may be AUD-negative.
Technical Analysis: • The GBP may outperform as the strong
• 1) The pair is still inside the uptrend channel; 2) RSI: edge lower manufacturing and construction PMIs (54.1
from overbought region & 60.1, both better than expected) show
• We expect GBP/AUD may trade inside 1.9365-2.0029 first before the economy remains solid.
testing higher to 2.0029.
NOTE: The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.75 exchange rate for reference, and 1,000 yen per unit for JPY/HKD.
© 2015 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc. Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
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Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Monday
03/02/2015 17:00 EC !! Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb 51.0 51.1 51.1
03/02/2015 17:30 UK !! Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Feb 54.1 53.4 53.1
03/02/2015 18:00 EC ! Unemployment Rate Jan 11.20% 11.40% 11.30%
03/02/2015 18:00 EC !!! CPI Estimate YoY Feb -0.30% -0.40% -0.60%
03/02/2015 21:30 CA ! Current Account Balance 4Q -$13.9B -$12.5B -$9.6B
03/02/2015 21:30 US !! Personal Income Jan 0.30% 0.40% 0.30%
03/02/2015 21:30 US !! Personal Spending Jan -0.20% -0.10% -0.30%
03/02/2015 23:00 US !! ISM Manufacturing Feb 52.9 53.0 53.5
Tuesday
03/03/2015 11:30 AU !!! RBA Cash Rate Target Mar 2.25% 2.00% 2.25%
03/03/2015 21:30 CA !! GDP YoY Dec 2.80% 2.50% 2.00%
Wednesday
03/04/2015 08:30 AU !! GDP YoY 4Q -- 2.60% 2.70%
03/04/2015 17:30 UK !! Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Feb -- 57.4 57.2
03/04/2015 21:15 US !! ADP Employment Change Feb -- 218K 213K
03/04/2015 23:00 CA !! Bank of Canada Rate Decision Mar -- 0.63% 0.75%
03/04/2015 23:00 US ! ISM Non-Manf. Composite Feb -- 56.5 56.7
Thursday
U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige
03/05/2015 03:00 US !! Mar
Book
03/05/2015 20:00 UK ! Bank of England Bank Rate Mar -- 0.50% 0.50%
03/05/2015 20:45 EC !! ECB Main Refinancing Rate Mar -- 0.05% 0.05%
03/05/2015 21:30 US !! Initial Jobless Claims Feb -- -- 313K
03/05/2015 23:00 CA !! Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA Feb -- -- 45.4
Friday
03/06/2015 18:00 EC !! GDP SA YoY 4Q -- 0.90% 0.90%
03/06/2015 21:30 US !!! Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Feb -- 240K 257K
03/06/2015 21:30 US !!! Unemployment Rate Feb -- 5.60% 5.70%
For any enquiries, please call (852) 2860-0333. Source: Source: Bloomberg L.P.
(K = Thousand, M = Million, B = Billion)
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