Professional Documents
Culture Documents
T
of any major investment or intervention in the rural sector2
regarding forest resource management during the (see box 4.1). It describes interventions at spatial scales that
past few decades. A landscape is often defined as a attempt to optimize the spatial relations and interactions
geographical construct that includes not only biophysical among a range of land cover types, institutions, and human
features of an area but also its cultural and institutional activities in an area of interest.
attributes (adapted from Farina [2006]). A landscape is not Forest landscape restoration, landscape planning, and
necessarily defined by its size; rather, it is defined by an ecoagriculture all build on landscape approaches and prin-
interacting mosaic of land cover and land-use types relevant ciples. Common among these landscape approaches is that
to the processes or services being considered or managed. they
Examples of forest landscapes can range from large tracts of
forests used for multiple purposes (production; cultural, ■ aim to restore a balance of environmental, social, and
recreational, or environmental services; and the like) to economic benefits from forests and trees within a
mosaics of forests, home gardens, rice terraces, and villages broader pattern of land use;
that enable people to exploit mountain slopes in several ■ use a landscape-level view, whether for site restoration or
countries in southeast Asia in ways that yield a diversity of for activities involving a mosaic of land uses (accord-
crops, maintain soil fertility and watershed functions, and ingly, site-level activities accommodate, or are nested in,
retain indigenous biodiversity. landscape-level objectives);
Another definition of landscape is a dynamic, complex ■ consider people as central elements of the landscape; and
patchwork of overlapping political, economic, social, and ■ recognize that the dynamic nature of ecosystems and
ecological systems (Scoones 1999; Zimmerer 2000). The socioeconomic systems makes gathering complete
landscape is a heterogeneous area within which there can information regarding any system unachievable
be a mosaic of land uses that are individually relatively (accordingly, explicit efforts are made to integrate and
homogeneous. adapt plans, programs, and projects that are active in a
Recently the “landscape approach” has been incorpo- landscape, including the sharing of new knowledge and
rated in the conceptualization of geographical spaces of information).
interest when defining a landscape.1 A landscape approach
is applied to a geographical space of interest. A landscape The World Bank’s Forests Strategy aims to make the most
approach is a conceptual framework that allows for a struc- of the multiple uses and values of forests. Forests are part of
tured way of viewing the broader impacts and implications a diverse livelihood portfolio for a large number of rural
123
Box 4.1 What Is a Landscape Approach?
The landscape approach should incorporate the fol- ■ Identifies key leverage points that can be used to get
lowing elements: the ecosystem or landscape to change in desirable
ways
■ Builds understanding and a shared vision of desir- ■ Establishes a flexible monitoring and evaluation sys-
able future landscapes tem to monitor and measure impacts on the landscape
■ Determines the factors that will shape the landscape in to allow for changes to be made in implementation
the future so that they can be mitigated or influenced
■ Builds multidisciplinary teams to tackle these com- Several approaches exist for implementing strate-
plex, intersectoral landscape-scale problems gies that integrate management of land, water, and liv-
■ Explores possible future scenarios for the geograph- ing resources and promote conservation and sustain-
ical areas in question and their peoples able use in an equitable manner (for example, an
■ Provides a framework for negotiations between ecosystem approach). The elements listed above are
stakeholders who have different views of desirable generic to several of these approaches and provide
landscape-scale outcomes practical operational entry points.
■ Makes the knowledge, assumptions, and desires of
different stakeholders more apparent and easily
understood by other stakeholders
Source: Authors’ compilation using Sayers 2006.
poor. In addition, the productive use of forests can signifi- internalizing positive externalities and minimizing negative
cantly contribute to economic development, while the man- externalities from individual land uses.
agement of biological and ecological services from forests While the global rate of deforestation has fallen from
can provide numerous local as well as global environmental 0.22 percent in the 1990s to 0.18 percent in the 2000s, the
benefits. As noted in the strategy, forests (and their users development and conservation communities continue to
and beneficiaries) both have an impact on and are affected bemoan the imminent loss of forests, biodiversity, and asso-
by policies and actions in other sectors, as well as by bio- ciated economic and environmental services. However, not
physical changes in adjoining or biologically linked areas (as all deforestation is inevitable and not all deforestation is
examples, forest fires can result from land-use practices in necessarily bad because many countries are replanting native
agricultural lands, or macroeconomic reforms can affect the and/or exotic forests on former forest lands and in natural
opportunity cost of land) (see chapter 6: Mainstreaming grasslands. These new forests are having landscape-,
Forests into Development Policy and Planning). In this con- regional-, and global-level impacts although they do not
text, optimizing forest functions3 in a landscape can unlock provide significant biodiversity conservation and are not a
the full potential of forests. substitute for natural forests. The landscape approach can
A landscape-focused program can facilitate the assess- aid in better understanding the tradeoffs and potential syn-
ment of broader, wide-ranging trends, influences, and man- ergies among competing land claims and uses in forest
agement impacts to more adequately assess economic and zones. Thus, a balance would be attempted among pressures
ecological sustainability and identify the appropriate man- to increase protected areas; expand the area of independ-
agement strategies to maintain these resources for the ben- ently certified and sustainably managed natural forest; and
efit of all. In certain World Bank client countries where land convert forests to sustainable agroforestry-based farming
conversion is a major threat to forests, a landscape approach systems, timber plantations, commercial-scale agribusiness
can minimize site-specific activities negatively affecting or estates (such as soybean farming or cattle ranching), or
conflicting with each other. It can also enhance any syner- crop-based biofuels manufactured from sugar or oil palm.
gies that otherwise may be overlooked. Similarly, in client All of the multilateral environmental agreements now
countries where landscapes are a mosaic of land uses, an seek to achieve their objectives through the integrated man-
approach that takes the landscape into account can assist in agement of natural resource systems at large spatial scales.
The Turkey Eastern Anatolia Watershed Rehabilitation of the effort to improve community involvement, the
Project aimed to “help to restore sustainable range, for- project used the existing system with the village muktar
est and farming activities in the upper watersheds of as the leader. While elected by the village and supported
the three project provinces, reducing soil degradation, by elected (unpaid) elders, the muktar is paid a salary as
erosion and sedimentation in reservoirs as well as a government servant. There are, therefore, inevitable
increasing productivity and incomes in this impover- loyalty tensions. He (it is invariably a man, although
ished region of Turkey” (World Bank 2004: 1). The there have been a few women muktars) is very much a
project exceeded its target on forestlands and the insti- local politician. Many vote for him because he seems
tutional sustainability of the project was substantial; the most likely to pull in public funds. Indeed, in several
however, the extent to which local institutions really community meetings with the mission, it was clear that
changed is less evident. government funding support, whether through a World
A review of the project stated that the project could Bank project or from other sources, was seen by rural
have “challenged the system” more in the areas of households as a right and the muktar was expected to
women’s and poorer households’ involvement. As part deliver on such entitled central support.
■ incorporate spatial analysis to link objectives at differing appropriately scaling up the model. Incentives, constraints,
scales into planning and decision making; and lessons learned will have to be documented, and
■ integrate planning and management across site, land- processes streamlined, to facilitate such scaling up.6
scape, region, and (perhaps) continental levels;
■ predict responses of ecosystems to management activities; Facilitate the application of landscape approaches
■ examine relationships and interdependencies of manage- in different contexts. Landscape approaches to optimiz-
ment actions taken on one spatial, temporal, and biolog- ing forest functions have boundless potential. Identifying
ical scale upon actions at another scale; and effective applications of a landscape approach can benefit
■ assess tradeoffs among multiple objectives and goals for from a typology that distinguishes three forest landscapes:
the landscape (see box 4.5). (i) forests beyond the forest-agriculture frontier,7 (ii) fron-
tier and disputed forest areas,8 and (iii) forest-agriculture
Sustainability of landscape approaches. Projects mosaics. In forests beyond the frontier, a landscape focus
building on a landscape approach can draw significant les- can help maintain large-scale environmental processes. For
sons from several generations of watershed projects. An forests at the frontier, it is important to maintain landscape
important issue is that high subsidies and other induce- connectivity and to avoid irreversible degradation and neg-
ments should not be used to lower the real costs of partici- ative externalities. In mosaic landscapes, a landscape focus
pation for communities, distorting the true nature of can facilitate managing the forest for production, environ-
demand. In many instances, this is a result of a mistaken mental services, and biodiversity.
assumption that what might be socially optimal for overall
environmental improvements to a community will be pri- Analyze the policy context and enabling condi-
vately optimal to the resource user. Such subsidization tions. It is often stated that lack of ideal political and pol-
masks the sustainability of these initiatives (Boerma 2000). icy contexts should not constrain the use of a landscape
approach. At the same time, improved government and
community capacity and willingness to engage in a land-
FUTURE PRIORITIES AND SCALING-UP
scape approach and an enabling context would facilitate
ACTIVITIES
implementation of such approaches. Currently, additional
Several successful projects in watershed management analytical work would help to enable the policy context and
encompass the basics of a landscape approach. Successes in institutional conditions necessary for implementing land-
a few pilot microcatchment areas can generate demand for scape approaches.
Successful employment of initiatives at the landscape groups. To enable results to be compared across loca-
level requires a clear understanding and identification tions, the systems specific to each are grouped accord-
of potential tradeoffs and opportunities for synergies. ing to broad categories, ranging from agroforests to
An improved understanding should lead to reduced grasslands and pastures. The criteria may be fine-tuned
power differentials among stakeholders, increased for specific locations, but the matrix always comprises
equity in outcomes, and minimization of losses suffered indicators for the following:
by specific stakeholder groups. Developing and adopt-
ing a suitable framework for identifying and assessing ■ two major global environmental concerns: carbon
the various ecological, economic, and social tradeoffs storage and biodiversity
would facilitate such understanding and decision mak- ■ agronomic sustainability, assessed according to a
ing regarding which tradeoffs are acceptable. range of soil characteristics, including trends in
ASB–Partnership for the Tropical Forest Margins nutrients and organic matter over time
(ASB) is a global partnership of research institutes, ■ policy objectives: economic growth and employ-
nongovernmental organizations, universities, commu- ment opportunities
nity organizations, farmers’ groups, and other local, ■ smallholders’ concerns: their workloads, returns to
national, and international organizations. ASB works their labor, food security for their families, and
at the nexus of two important problems: tropical start-up costs of new systems or techniques
deforestation and human poverty. ASB focuses on ■ policy and institutional barriers to adoption by
landscape mosaics (comprising both forests and agri- smallholders, including the availability of credit,
culture) where global environmental problems and markets, and improved technology
poverty coincide at the margins of remaining tropical
forests. ASB applies an integrated natural resource Below is an illustrative example of an ASB Summary
management approach to analysis and action through Matrix for the Forest Margins of Sumatra. This matrix
long-term engagement with local communities and provides information on benefits at different scales
policy makers at various levels. (based on rigorous analytical work). The matrix allows
In the ASB matrix, natural forest and the land-use researchers, policy makers, environmentalists, and oth-
systems that replace it are scored against different cri- ers to identify and discuss tradeoffs among the various
teria reflecting the objectives of different interest objectives of different interest groups.
orest landscape planning differs from other plan- planning for National Forest lands, outlines overall goals and
132
Identify planning team members and define individu-
Box 4.7 Who Are the Landscape Stakeholders?
als’ specific roles. The composition (see box 4.6) and size
of the team should be based on a rapid needs assessment for
successful landscape plan development. The roles and Landscape planning is broader in scope than site-
specific planning and therefore requires a wide range
responsibilities of the planning team must be defined early to
of stakeholder perspectives to assess and develop pri-
reduce confusion, focus staff time, avoid duplication of effort,
ority strategies. Stakeholders can include:
and ensure that all aspects of the planning process are
addressed. If any necessary skills are missing, it will be impor- ■ government representatives at the national,
tant to mention how these gaps will be filled and when. regional, and local levels
The team may be distinct from or overlap with the team ■ government ministry representatives that have
working on macro-zone plans. Any alteration in roles when authority over lands in the landscape
working on the various plans should be expressed. ■ traditional leaders
■ extractive industry representatives operating in
Develop a public participation strategy. The planning or near the landscape
team needs to develop a strategy for effective stakeholder ■ local and international NGO representatives
participation for the plan and the landscape concept to be operating on the landscape
■ marginalized groups that may not have a voice
successful (box 4.7). Sound strategies for landscape plan-
as part of the above groups
ning will incorporate multiple opportunities for involve-
■ military leaders
ment and concurrence by local communities, government, ■ individuals claiming ancestral rights to lands
relevant industry, and other stakeholders. Creating a sense ■ community members that are able to represent
of ownership among local community members and a resource users
wider audience of stakeholders by involving them in plan- ■ local hunters and fishermen
ning discussions and decision making improves the likeli- ■ others to be determined
hood that the plan will be supported and its implementa-
tion will be successful (box 4.8). An important part of the Source: USFS 2006.
strategy is stakeholder identification.
The Bank’s project in Natural Resource Management setting in which the BCPCPS approach can be con-
in Albania used a Participatory Microcatchment (MC) ducted. The team does not take part in the discussion
Planning Approach to collect information and data to nor make promises. Project staff has to ensure that
fully understand the physical and socioeconomic con- women and children are not marginalized in the
ditions of the MC. This included collection of existing BCPCPS process.
information (data and maps), data verification and A “priority list of village problems” is developed by
updating, and supplementation of available informa- the team and the problems that are outside the man-
tion with further simple surveys. MC plans build on date of the project are eliminated as the list is finalized.
forest and pasture management plans for communal This list is used as the basis of a joint discussion of the
forestry and pasture activities and refer to the key solutions to the problems identified by the villagers.
actions they identify (if these plans have already been During this discussion, a suggested “menu of activities”
prepared). prepared in advance by the team, is shared with the vil-
To integrate various viewpoints in each village, the lage community to contribute to solving the problems
project conducted an exercise called Beneficiary- identified. The menu of activities often consists of
Centered Problem Census Problem Solving (BCPCPS). rehabilitation activities and income-generation activi-
BCPCPS is a nonthreatening, focused discussion that ties (or income-supporting activities).
uses small group dynamics to elicit (i) a complete and Based on discussions, the villagers choose activities
ranked census of the real and perceived problems of that meet their priorities. Often farmers make addi-
individual households, villages, and the commune as a tional demands, particularly for income-generating
whole; and (ii) the commune’s proposed solutions to activities. However, it was made clear to the villagers
these problems. This approach provides a setting in that the resources (money and time) available under
which all members of the commune can contribute. the project were limited and that the project would
No problem is rejected and all solutions are consid- support those activities and measures that focus most
ered. The final ranking of problems and preferred solu- of the benefits at the level of the MC, that are cost
tions is performed by the villagers. The contribution of effective, and that can be replicated in other parts of
the team is limited to facilitating the creation of the Albania.
Develop a work plan reflecting the implementation it are effectively contributing to the achievement of the land-
schedule. This work plan will provide prioritized action scape’s desired condition and objectives. Monitoring will
items with a timeline and a budget to accomplish the work. provide the feedback loop for evaluating and updating the
It is appropriate to include a description of how stakehold- plan (see note 4.2, Assessing Outcomes of Landscape Inter-
ers will be involved. Most actions will be concentrated ventions). Landscape-wide monitoring is typically con-
within the macro-zone management plans; however, impor- ducted to evaluate conditions and trends of specific
tant cross-zone issues and current conditions and future resources on the landscape. The monitoring protocol should
trends are better identified at the landscape scale. All imple- indicate the type and frequency of monitoring, as well as
mentation activities should be linked back to one or more of who is responsible for carrying it out and reporting on it.
the landscape objectives. The schedule should specify what
action items will be accomplished, by whom, and when, and
LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
the associated cost.
FOR PRACTITIONERS
Develop a monitoring protocol. This protocol will help This note’s guidance on planning needs to be tailored to
determine if the landscape plan and associated plans under the specific context of the region in question and to the
Assessing Outcomes
of Landscape Interventions
139
identification can be useful for strategically selecting cost- just the physical indicators should be measured; local liveli-
effective indicators that can provide accurate information. hood outcomes also should be assessed (see box 4.12).
Indicators can range from very broad to very specific. Fur- There may be multiple indicators associated with a spe-
thermore, indicators may be layered such that an analysis cific criterion—some amenable to measurement at the
begins with broad indicators and then adds increasingly landscape scale and others suitable for the site level. Simi-
specific indicators until the information needs are met larly, indicators may vary by whether they are used to mea-
(Buck and others 2006). sure the state of a landscape or the impact of particular
The selected indicators should be relevant, precise, sensi- interventions on landscape performance (see box 4.13).
tive, easy to understand, and measurable. Measurement indi- At the landscape level it is realistic for performance to be
cators must be able to recognize tradeoffs (short-term versus measured not by whether a desirable end condition has
long-term, at different scales, for different stakeholders) that been achieved, but by assessing whether the combination of
need to be addressed in the landscape for the indicators to be influences affecting change is moving the landscape in the
credible. When employing a landscape approach, more than right direction relative to stated performance criteria.
Biophysical indicators. Specific indicators will depend Natural capital can include measures of:
on the objectives that have been identified for the land- ■ deforestation rates
scape, and may include, but are not limited to: ■ frequency and size of fires
■ external threats to the landscape Human capital can include measures of:
■ ecological function and condition ■ quality of clinics and health care
drivers for change in the landscape, level of fragmenta- ■ number of qualified people
tion, the condition of the forests, and the population of ■ infant mortality
Livelihood indicators. Livelihood indicators can be Physical capital can include measures of:
based on the capital assets framework. These indicators ■ household quality
can be applied to a sample of communities and then ■ number of kiosks selling basic products
aggregated to a landscape scale. The capital assets ■ sources of drinking water
framework has five types of capital: (i) financial, (ii) ■ village accessibility
social, (iii) natural, (iv) human, and (v) physical.
Specific monitoring activities will depend on the
Financial capital can include measures of: objectives that have been identified for the landscape,
■ formal sector employment and may include, but are not limited to:
■ household income ■ development of local communities
■ wildlife corridors
Source: Authors’ compilation using USFS 2006 and Buck and others 2006.
Criterion C1: Land-use patterns across the landscape optimize habitat value and landscape connectivity for native species.
Identify approach for monitoring. Multiple approaches toring, as well as who is responsible for carrying it out and
are available for monitoring and evaluating interventions, reporting on the monitoring.
and data can come from various sources (primary data; data
from local laypersons, local experts, or outside technical
LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
experts using advanced technological tools and analytical
FOR PRACTITIONERS
methods). Identifying the most appropriate approach will
require a clear understanding of the context, working within Monitoring and assessment systems must be flexible to be
parameters such as available resources, and identifying able to function in a highly dynamic social and economic
approaches that will draw on readily available qualitative and environment (see note 4.3, Using Adaptive Management to
quantitative information. (See box 4.14 for one approach.) Improve Project Implementation). Consistent monitoring
over time allows for changes to be tracked continuously. The
Use technological tools to enrich the debate about indicators and means of measurement to be used must be
future landscape scenarios. These same tools can also chosen and used consistently over time; data sets are often
be used by special interest groups to excessively influence rendered useless if they are too flexible.
activities or processes. It is therefore important that tech- Stakeholder perceptions of desirable outcomes will
nology not dominate or drive the process but be put at the change with time, and the need for interventions to achieve
service of stakeholders in an equitable and transparent fash- desirable landscape conditions may also change. While flex-
ion (Ecoagriculture Partners and IUCN 2007). ibility is important, consistency over time is critical to track-
ing change meaningfully—the indicators and means of
Specify who is responsible for monitoring and the measurement must be enduring.
appropriate frequency and format. The monitoring Monitoring should be continual and not simply consist
protocol should indicate the type and frequency of moni- of an update to the baseline information at the very end of
It is difficult to reach agreement among all stakeholders should thus be used early in project formulation to
about what is wanted and what is likely to happen. The ensure clarity of desired project effects on landscape
outcome assessment approach is based upon negotia- outcomes and establish the basis for measuring them.
tions among all stakeholders on what they want the The indicator sets can be developed in a few days
landscape to look like and what it is to deliver, that is, during a multistakeholder meeting. A technical person,
how they want the landscape to perform. Indicators or small team, will then need to conduct the first, base-
then have to be selected that will measure change in the line assessment. This may require extensive field sur-
landscape and how that will correspond to the desired veys and, depending upon the complexity of the situa-
performance criteria. Indicators of changes in different tion and the availability of data, may take several
categories of landscape values (natural, built, human, months. The process will have to be repeated every year
and social value categories) provide a basis for assessing to track progress, so an annual meeting will be needed
the impact of interventions from a holistic perspective. to review progress and adapt management as needed.
This approach is particularly useful in situations The costs associated with this approach include
where an intervention is anticipated to impact a land- those of the facilitator for the first meeting and techni-
scape mosaic, for instance, in determining and then cal staff hired for several months to assemble data.
assessing an appropriate balance between the amount Landscape-scale outcome assessment approaches
of forest needed for conservation and the amount that capture the broader impacts of any intervention—a
might be converted to agriculture or other uses. Out- policy change, financial incentive, new projects, and so
come assessment methodologies are consistent with forth—on the landscape. They could complement
commonly employed participatory techniques for rates of return studies in negotiating possible external-
planning and evaluating interventions; the techniques ities of an intervention and then measuring them.
the intervention. It should be an ongoing process through Buck, L. E., J. C. Milder, T. A. Gavin, and I. Mukherjee. 2006.
which periodic monitoring is used to modify, as necessary, “Understanding Ecoagriculture: A Framework for Mea-
the implementation of the project (see chapter 7, Monitor- suring Landscape Performance.” Discussion Paper No. 2,
ing and Information Systems for Forest Management). Ecoagriculture Partners, Washington, DC. http://www
.ecoagriculturepartners.org/documents/reports/discus-
sionPapers/DiscussionPaperV2.pdf.
SELECTED READINGS Ecoagriculture Partners and IUCN (International Conser-
Forthcoming. Landscape Measures Resource Center. vation Union). 2007. “Principles of Engagement with
www.ecoagriculturepartners.org. Stakeholders in Negotiating and Measuring Landscape-
Level Outcomes.” Draft, Ecoagriculture Working Group,
Buck, L. E., J. C. Milder, T. A. Gavin, and I. Mukherjee. 2006.
Cornell University, Ithaca, NY. http://ecoag.cals.cornell
“Understanding Ecoagriculture: A Framework for Mea-
.edu/documents.html.
suring Landscape Performance.” Discussion Paper No. 2,
Ecoagriculture Partners, Washington, DC. http://www Sayer, J. A., and S. Maginnis, eds. 2006. Forests in Landscapes:
.ecoagriculturepartners.org/documents/reports/discus Ecosystem Approaches to Sustainability. London: Earthscan.
sionPapers/DiscussionPaperV2.pdf.
CROSS-REFERENCED CHAPTERS AND NOTES
REFERENCES CITED Note 4.1: Integrated Forest Landscape Land-Use Planning
Stem, C., R. Margoluis, N. Salafsky, and M. Brown. 2005. Note 4.3: Using Adaptive Management to Improve Project
“Monitoring and Evaluation in Conservation: A Review Implementation
of Trends and Approaches.” Conservation Biology 19(2): Chapter 7: Information and Monitoring Systems for Forest
295–309. Management, and associated notes
onservation and development interventions take gically select project actions. The outcomes of the activities
143
Figure 4.1 Necessary Ingredients for Project Success
Success!
Theory failure
Well-
Inaccurate Used to Does not Desired
implemented
assumptions design lead to results
project
Program failure
Poorly
Accurate Used to Does not Desired
implemented
assumptions design lead to results
project
Total failure!
sures Partnership (CMP) (2004) that has several of the same There are six major steps in the adaptive management
elements of other project management cycles. Adaptive process before the process may be repeated:
management is an integral part of each step in a project
cycle. The main steps in adaptive management in a project ■ Clarify group’s mission.
management cycle are outlined in figure 4.2. ■ Design a conceptual model based on local site conditions.
1. Conceptualize
• Define team
• Define purpose
• Understand context
• Model situation
5. Learn 2. Plan
• Document what you learn • Develop goals and objectives
• Share what you learn • Select activities
• Create learning environment Project • Focus on needs
management • Develop formal M&E plan
cycle
4. Analyze/Adapt 3. Implement
• Analyze data • Develop short-term plans
• Analyze interventions • Implement plans
• Communicate results to team • Refine
• Adapt action and M&E plans
Box 4.15 Conceptual Models: A Tool for Portraying a Site’s Context and Determining Strategies
A conceptual model is a visual tool for depicting the con- help the teams determine what actions are needed to
text within which a project is operating and, in particu- influence the factors at their site and what factors they
lar, the major forces that are influencing what the proj- should be monitoring to determine if those factors are
ect is trying to achieve. A conceptual model is a diagram changing with project implementation [Margoluis and
that uses a series of boxes and arrows to succinctly rep- Salafsky 1998; Morgan and Foundations of Success
resent a set of causal relationships among factors that 2005 (see note in reference section)].
are believed to impact one or more targets (what one is The following conceptual model schematic is
ultimately trying to affect). Conceptual models are use- adapted from a real-world conservation project at a
ful planning tools for project teams because they can watershed site:
Objective Scope:
Traditions and Demand for Objective Blue River
Media campaign consumer caviar watershed
preferences Harvesting for
caviar Goal
High price
for caviar Objective Sturgeon
Need to generate
income Pollution from
Objective domestic sewage
Improve Goal
Inadequate zoning
land-use regulations Blue River and
planning tributaries
Global warming
Limited gov’t
capacity for land
use planning
Dams Riparian
Need for
Rapid electricity forest
urbanization
Objective Objective
Gov’t policies Clearing for new
favorable to Goal
urban development home construction
Demand for Forest
Lobby gov’t on Population second homes corridors
development policies growth
Reforestation
Failure of rural with native species
Cheap land
economy
Indirect threat or
Key: Strategy Direct threat Target
opportunity
In this example, the team chose the strategy of model helped the team be strategic about the activities
“Improve land-use planning” because it would influ- they chose and those they omitted.
ence multiple factors at their site. The conceptual
Source: Foundations of Success 2005.
Box 4.16 Tools for Clarifying and Testing Assumptions: Results Chains
The results chain is a tool that clarifies assumptions that link factors in an “if…then” fashion (Founda-
about the way in which specific strategies are believed tions of Success 2005). The basis for a results chain
to lead to achieving a desired impact. In the conser- comes from a conceptual model, but, as illustrated in
vation context, results chains show how strategies the example below, results chains build on that model
contribute to reducing threats and achieving the con- to make the logic more specific and to change the
servation of biodiversity or thematic targets. They are boxes from neutral factors to results the team wants
diagrams that map out a series of causal statements to see.
Extracted Lobby Gov’t policies
from the Rapid Clearing for Forest
government on favorable to urbanization new home corridors
conceptual development policies urban development
model construction
Potential Number of Number of Presence of new Annual rate of Number of sq km Number of forest
indicators government officials government officials policies discouraging urbanization cleared for new patches connected
reached able to cite at least rapid urban homes by corridors
three negative side development Average width of
effects of rapid urban Presence of new corridors
development policies encouraging Number of key
“smart” growth species using
corridors
Source: Foundations of Success 2005.
Results chains are important tools for making ment. If they are more knowledgeable, they will develop
assumptions explicit and facilitating their testing. In policies that discourage rapid urban development. If
this example, one of the strategies this project team is they develop these policies, the pace of urbanization
undertaking is lobbying government to discourage will slow.…” The results chain lays out the logic step-
policies favorable to urban development that have led by-step and provides a basis for developing indicators
to clearing of forest corridors for new home construc- that will help the project team determine if the logic
tion. The results chain shows the team’s assumptions: holds. If it does not, they will be able to quickly deter-
“If we lobby government officials on development poli- mine where in the chain their logic is faulty. Or, as illus-
cies, then government officials will be more knowledge- trated in figure 4.1, they should investigate whether the
able of the problems associated with urban develop- project failure was due to poor implementation.
In the 1990s two organizations, Defensores de la Natu- tion. To explore this question, Defensores de la Natu-
raleza in Guatemala and Línea Biósfera in Mexico, raleza and Línea Biósfera partnered with the Biodiver-
wanted to understand how effectively sustainable agri- sity Support Program to implement a learning process
culture was reducing deforestation and the conditions to determine the utility of sustainable agriculture as a
under which it was effective. Like many conservation conservation tool.
or development organizations, these two groups had As a first step, the organizations had to make
been using sustainable agriculture under the assump- explicit the assumptions they were using in promoting
tion that it would reduce forest clearing for agriculture, sustainable agriculture techniques. One of the main
yet they had no concrete evidence that the use of sus- assumptions is articulated in the results chain in the
tainable agriculture actually led to reduced deforesta- figure:
The groups in both countries collected data related Guatemala, where land is relatively available, farmers
to each of the factors in the results chain and came up lacked incentives to be efficient in their land use, so
with some surprising conclusions. The assumptions in increased their maize production by increasing area
the first two rectangular boxes in the chain held, but planted. In Mexico, where land access is restricted,
there were differences regarding the third rectangular farmers were much more efficient in their use of land
box, “Farmers reduce area planted.” In Guatemala, and increased maize production by increasing yield.
farmers who used the sustainable agriculture tech- As a result of this work, the organizations concluded
niques promoted by the project planted more area to that sustainable agriculture programs that promote the
maize than farmers who did not use sustainable agri- same techniques used in these sites are unlikely to con-
culture. In Mexico, farmers who used the same sustain- tribute to decreased rates of deforestation if access to
able agriculture techniques planted less area (thus, the land is not restricted. This is an important lesson—not
assumptions in the results chain held true in Mexico). just for the organizations carrying out this research,
Through more analysis, the groups were able to deter- but for any organization working under similar condi-
mine that, in Guatemala, sustainable agriculture led to tions and using the same sustainable agriculture tech-
decreased investments in labor per hectare, and the niques to discourage deforestation. Adaptive manage-
farmers used the saved labor to increase the amount of ment is about testing assumptions, learning, and
area planted or to establish cash crops in forested areas. adapting. When project teams can identify these types
In addition, access to land was an important factor of general but nontrivial principles, they are helping to
affecting area planted and, thus, deforestation. In promote learning beyond their own project.
LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS management practices, managers should be able to readily
FOR PRACTITIONERS assess if a project is on track and, ultimately, how well the
project performed. Obviously, there is an upfront invest-
Adaptive management should involve all team members, to ment in helping teams do adaptive management, but that
the extent possible.4 Plans developed by higher level man- investment can make overall portfolio management easier
agers or offices and handed down to field staff do not have and more reliable for program managers.
buy-in from the field staff and do not represent the assump- Ideally, teams should integrate adaptive management
tions held by project teams familiar with the site. into their projects from the beginning—as soon as they
Encouraging an adaptive management approach will begin to conceptualize their project and think about who
help program managers overseeing multiple projects. If the will be involved and where or on what they want to work.
projects they are supervising have followed good adaptive This helps them be explicit and systematic early on. Never-