Professional Documents
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Outline
Principles of Risk Management
Elements of Risk Management
Some real examples
Practical Case
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Principles of Risk Management
Main Objective
Risk assessments and management permits to define,
know and quantify different events which can occur during
the project,.
Trying to anticipate to the future. These potential events
can be:
•Negative Threats (Negative Impacts on Profit)
•Positive Opportunities (Positive Impacts on Profit)
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Principles of Risk Management
Quality Work
Management Management
Plan Plan
Plan
Risk
Project Time
Management Management
Plan Plan
Information Cost
Management Management
Plan Plan
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Principles of Risk Management
Quality Work
Management Management
Plan Plan
Risk
Risk
Manageme
Plan
Project Time
Management
Plan nt Plan Management
Plan
Information Cost
Management Management
Plan Plan
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Principles of Risk Management
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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology
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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology
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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan –
Terminology
The environment within which decision takes place
can be divided into three parts:
• Certainty: only exists when one can specify
exactly what will happen during the period of time
covered by the decision. This does not happen very
often in the construction.
• Risk: is an event which may translate into a
situation that has a potential to cause damages. Risk
is associated a probability of occurrence and an
impact.
• Uncertainty: defined as a situation in which
there are no historic data or previous history relating
to the situation being considered by the decision-
maker.
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Principles of Risk Management
Risk Management Plan -
Terminology
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Principles of Risk Management
Relating the System, Work Breakdown Structure & Organization
Breakdown Structure creates a Framework that helps all
Stakeholders to Manage the Variables (Risks and Opportunities)
and to Maintain Control and Balance of the Build Configuration
through all Stages of the Lifecycle. Applying System Engineering
Practices to LIPs can be the difference between Success & Failure.
System typically fails due to interfaces !!!!
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Principles of Risk Management
“With advances in technology, major projects have become hugely
complex. Great engineers of the past like Stephenson and Brunel could
conduct an entire project with a manageable “headful” of information. This
is no longer possible: modern projects are made up of a network of
interoperating systems with a multiplicity of functions, technology and
commercial imperatives. The complexities of interfaces and tradeoffs have
to be carefully managed, together with risk, over the project’s entire life
cycle. Disciplined Systems Integration techniques provide the key to
managing complexity across a broad range of industries and offer additional
benefits when implementing organizational systems and process changes in
today’s multi‐owner, multi‐stakeholder environment”
Text taken from an MPA Meeting at the Royal college of Pathologists in London May
2002.
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Principles of Risk Management
This complexity entangles potential risks and errors, increasingly likely to happen as
the project evolves.
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Principles of Risk Management
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Principles of Risk Management
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Principles of Risk Management
Project management process groups
Knowledge areas Initiating Process Monitoring & Controlling Process Closing Process
Planning Process Group Executing Process Group
Group Group Group
4. Project Integration 4.1 Develop 4.2 Develop Project Management Plan 4.3 Direct and Manage 4.4 Monitor and Control Project Work 4.6 Close Project
Management Project Charter Project Work 4.5 Perform Integrated Change Control or Phase
5. Project Scope 5.1 Plan Scope Management 5.5 Validate Scope
Management 5.2 Collect Requirements 5.6 Control Scope
5.3 Define Scope
5.4 Create WBS
6. Project Time 6.1 Plan Schedule Management 6.7 Control Schedule
Management 6.2 Define Activities
6.3 Sequence Activities
6.4 Estimate Activity Resources
6.5 Estimate Activity Durations
6.6 Develop Schedule
7. Project Cost 7.1 Plan Cost Management 7.4 Control Costs
Management 7.2 Estimate Costs
7.3 Determine Budget
8.Project Quality 8.1 Plan Quality Management 8.2 Perform Quality 8.3 Control Quality
Management Assurance
9. Project Human 9.1 Plan Human Resource Management 9.2 Acquire Project Team
Resource Management 9.3 Develop Project Team
9.4 Manage Project Team
10. Project 10.1 Plan Communications 10.2 Manage 10.3 Control Communications
Communications Management Communications
Management
11. Project Risk 11.1 Plan Risk Management 11.6 Control Risks
Management 11.2 Identify Risks
11.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
11.5 Plan Risk Responses
12. Project Procurement 12.1 Plan Procurement Management 12.2 Conduct 12.3 Control Procurements 12.4 Close
Management Procurements Procurements
13. Project Stakeholder 13.1 Identify 13.2 Plan Stakeholder Management 13.3 Manage Stakeholder 13.3 Control Stakeholder Engagement
Management 16 Stakeholders Engagement
Principles of Risk Management
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Principles of Risk Management
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Principles of Risk Management
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
• Brainstorming: it consist of obtaining a comprehensive list of project risks. The project team
usually performs brainstorming about project risks. Continually, the risks are identified and categorized
by type of risk and their definitions are refined.
• Root cause analysis: is a specific technique used to identify a problem, discover the
underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
Sensitivity analysis: helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the
project. In addition, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project
element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at
their baseline values.
Prioritized list of quantified risks: this list includes those risks that pose greatest threat.
These include the risk that may have the greatest effect on cost and those that are most
likely to influence the critical path.
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
1. Deterministic Analysis
“Best case, Worst case and most probable case” and considering
Balance = Earned Value – Costs:
- Worst case : All costs are at highest value, while earned value are at lowest
estimate level.
- Best case: All costs are at lowest value, while earned value are at highest
estimate level
- Most probable case: Selected values are intermediate ones regarding both
costs and earned value.
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
Risk
Deterministic
Analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Elements of Risk Management
Risk Risk
Risk Risk
qualitative quantitative Risk control
identification response
analysis analysis
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
Title Contingency measure
Ignore or disregard cases of Stop fabrication, redesign and implement the new design. In parallel a reparation process for
temporary loads and unsafe lining section and segments must be put in place
transitory situations
Concrete curing process If the concrete curing process is not enough to reach the required strength, then the contingency
measure is to wait more time during storage stage
Handling and management If this risk materialises, then the contingency measure is to prepare a new logistic plan and
implement it in order to avoid it happens again
Dynamics actions in If not considered dynamic actions take place, damage assessment of the segment already casted
transport must be performed and reparation or rejection defined. Also transportation plan must be revisited
and updated
Do not correctly shape the When the errors in the shape of the segment are relevant, the only advisable solution is to reject
precast ring segment them, as well as to assess any damage produced in the lining already constructed in order to define
reparations. In case the magnitude of this error is minor then a modification of the assembly process
by reducing applied thrust loads can be studied if feasible
Conservative design for In case the design is proved to be very conservative and there is enough technical substantiation,
service situations redesign can take place together with the request of relaxation if needed
Joints articulate weakest Failures in joints contingency plan relies in repairing them through special injections in the affected
point the precast ring area
segment
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Some real examples
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Some real examples
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Bibliography
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Guide)—Fifth Edition. Project management journal, 44(3).
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Thomas, A. H., Banyai, J. P., & Macdonald, M. (2007).Risk Management of the construction
of tunnels using Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs).
Hong, E. S., Lee, I. M., Shin, H. S., Nam, S. W., & Kong, J. S. (2009).Quantitative risk
evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: application to the design of shield
TBM. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 24(3), 269-277.
Pialarissi Cavalaro, S. H. (2009). Aspectos tecnológicos de túneles construidos con
tuneladora y dovelas prefabricadas de hormigón. Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya
BTS.(2004). Tunnel lining design guide. The British Tunnelling Society and TheInstitution of
Civil Engineers. Thomas Telford Ltd. London.
Peña, F., Morales, J. S., & Meli, R. (2012). Estudios de la interacción entre el revestimiento
primario y el secundario de túneles dovelados.
Gruebl, F. (2006).Segmental rings (critical loads and damage prevention). In International
Symposium on Underground Excavation and Tunnelling, Bangkok, Thailand (pp. 9-19).
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de la Fuente, A., Blanco, A., Pujadas, P., & Aguado, A. (2014). Diseño óptimo de dovelas de hormigón
reforzado con fibras para el revestimiento de túneles. Hormigón y Acero, 65(274), 267-279.
Blom, C. B. M. (2002). Design philosophy of concrete linings for tunnels in soft soils. Tesis doctoral,
Universidad Tecnológica de Delft.
D2 Consult International (2013). Suburban metro Caracas. Segmental lining concept comparison.
Linz.
Della Valle, N., Castellví, H. (2016). Diseño de túneles con tuneladora. Ciudad deMéxico: 4° Simposio
Internacional sobre Túneles y Lumbreras en suelos y en roca.
Pescara, M., (2010).Dimensioning the segmental lining.Tunneling and tunnel boring
machines.Politecnico di Torino.
Bofill de la Cierva, J. (2007). Necesidades de Innovacion en la construcción subterránea. Ejecución
de túneles con escudo y dovelas prefabricadas. Barcelona.
SKELHORN, S., & MCNALLY, L. (2009). Practical precast ring selection. T & T international, (DEC).
Cavalaro, S., & Aguado, A. (2013).Characterization of backfill mortars used in different tunnels in
Spain. Materiales de Construcción, 63(309), 65-78.
Wannick, H. (2006). A code of practice for risk management of tunnel works. The International.
Guglielmetti, V., Grasso, P., Mahtab, A., & Xu, S. (Eds.). (2008). Mechanizedtunnelling in urban areas:
design methodology and construction control. CRC Press.
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Risk Management
Educating XXIst century
Civil Engineers in Barcelona
AA VV
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