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Forecasting Raw Water Quality Parameters of Padma River by Artificial Neural

Network (ANN) Modelling

Conference Paper · December 2016

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 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

Forecasting Raw Water Quality Parameters of Padma River

by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Modelling
Sonia Akhter, Yeasir Mohammad Akib and Md. Rifath Faisal
For rapid urbanization and industrial growth, the surface water quality often witness
deteriorate. Due to environmental management purpose, monitoring of river water
quality needs to be checked out at regular basis. This paper uses the advantage of
artificial neural network for the modelling of water quality parameters related with the
study of water quality prediction for Padma river. The study focuses on the five points
of Padma river in the Rajshahi location. The data were taken at an interval of one
month for a year and some discrete values of previous years. ANN models were
developed for predicting and forecasting of few parameters. The performance for ANN
was determined by sum of squared error (𝑆𝑆𝐸), coefficient of determination (𝑅2 ),
adjusted coefficient of determination (adjusted𝑅2 ) and root mean squared error
(𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸).Goodness of fit was constructed between the estimated and observed value
of the parameters.

Keywords: Water quality parameters, Artificial neural network, Back propagation,

Forecasting, NARNET (Nonlinear autoregressive neural net)

1. Introduction

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) about 1.1 billion people has no
access to any type of improved drinking source of water. With the expected demand for
population growth by 2030, the energy demand for hydropower and other renewables
activities will rise by 60% (WWAP, 2009). So these types of activities will increase the
demand of water day by day. Activities related with the river have got priority for
Bangladesh because of her numerous number of river scattered over the country. About
700 rivers including tributaries flow through the country constituting a waterway of total
length around 24,140 kilometers. Padma is one of the major river in Bangladesh. It is
the main distributary of the Gange, which originates in the Himalayas from India, flowing
generally southeast for 120 kilometers (75 miles) to its confluence with the Meghna river
near the Bay of Bengal and from 4 to 8 km wide.Rajshahi, located in the north-west part
of Bangladesh is considered as the Silk house of Bangladesh has a population of
current population of 7 lakhs. But it is the only primary using source of surface water for
the Rajshahi city. The work is related with water quality of the Padma river, describing
the present and future event for the water quality parameters.

Ecological decisions are difficult without good modelling scenario. So determining the
proper tool for prediction and forecasting is a challenge for the researchers nowadays.
Generally forecasting model can be divided into statistical and physically based
______________________________________________________________________
Sonia Akhter, Rajshahi University of Engineering & Technology, Bangladesh, Yeasir Mohammad Akib
and Md. Rifath Faisal,
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

approaches. In recent times, different researchers have been initiated some forecasting
model about river water quality measurement [2]. For modeling the water quality
parametric statistical and deterministic models have been used in past. These require
vast information on different hydrological sub-process in order to gain the end results.
As a large number of factors affecting the water quality, having a complicated non-linear
relationship between the variables, typical data processing method is not suitable
enough for solving the problem [16]. For the measurement of raw water quality ANN
models are widely used. In back propagation technique, there is an extreme sensitivity
of back propagation to initial configuration. Non-linear set of data can interpret more
accurate with ANN model as it comprise the data set with weight. Time series analysis
has a great extent over the water quality parameters for interpretation of data during
different season.
Surface water is a great source of domestic supply in many cities of the world. The city
of Modesto, California has acquired the Del Este share of projects, thereby becoming
MID’s sole customer for treated water. A paper regarding the suitability of Padma river
authored by Md. Sazadul Hasan and Md. Rashedul Islam in 2010, shows that the
supply water is only drinkable when it is properly treated. But they didn’t show the future
situation of the river water quality. In 1997, Quing Zhang and Stephen J. Stanley
showed that raw-water colour is a key parameters for process controlling and
monitoring in water treatment process. The work was on the North Saskatchewan-
Nelson River, considering as a major tributary in the North Saskatchewan-Nelson River
system.Dogan et al. (2009) used ANN model for improving the biological oxygen
demand (BOD) estimation of the Melen river, Turkey. Rahman and Bakri (2010)
investigated the impact of this wastewater on the river water and focused on the water
quality of the Buriganga river.ANN models are widely used to predict raw water quality
[13] [10] [16] [12] [1] [9].A research paper related with the training, validation and
application of artificial neural network (ANN) models for computing the dissolved oxygen
(DO) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) levels in the Gomti River (India) was
conducted by Singh et al. (2009). In 1998, Gardner and Dorling showed that artificial
neural network modelling has many advantage over the traditional phenomenological or
semi-empirical models, since they require known input datasets. Twomey and Smith
(1996) discoursed some important aspects of the validation and verification of neural
network which includes the error metrics, residual error analysis and resampling
methodologies for validation under conditions of sparse data.
The main aim of this work is to construct ANN models for Padma river water quality and
application of the network for the improvement of water quality dataset.Here we used
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) modeling which gives the better result than any other
statistical tool as the data are non-linear.
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

2. Study area
The mighty Padma River is the main channel of greater Ganga River in Bangladesh by
encompassing Nawabganj, Rajshahi, Pabna, Kushtia, Faridpr, Rajbari and Chadpur
district. The Padma enters Bangladesh from India near Chapai Nawabgnaj, meets the
Jamuna (Brahmaputra) near Aricha and retains its name. Finally it meets Meghna River
near Chadpur and flows into Bay of Bengal as Meghna. It has a length of 120 km and
width of 4-8 km across Bangladesh. The bed of the Padma is wide, and the river is split
up into several channels flowing between constantly shifting sand banks and islands. As
a result, recently it ranked one of the world’s most frequent waterways. Important
pollution sources to basins are municipal, industrial waste water and agricultural run-off.
The Padma River is continuously affected by the drainage system of Rajshahi area.
According to sources with Rajshahi City Corporation (RCC), the city’s drainage system
is linked with the river through a number of outlets in different areas like Bashari,
Bulanpur, Shreerampur, Shimlapark, Dargapara, Masterpara, Fudkipara, Kumarpara
and Kazla. The dwelling people here throw their household and clinical wastage directly
to the river or the drainage system. The sample collection points are shown in the fig. 1.

Fig. 1: Sample collection points from Padma River (Starred)

Starred points (From up to down) are Godagari, Harupur, Shyampur, Rajshahi Cadet
College (RCC). Other samples are collected from Veripara, Rajshahi. Most of the data
(14 sets) were taken in 2015. Other sets are collected as follows: 2014 (1 set), 2009 (1
set) and 2008 (2 sets).
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

3. Methodology

3.1 ANN modeling

ANN are used for computing like a brain which is usually for helpful than other
conventional methods for computing. A neural net is composed of many simple
elements which is called nodes, cells etc. They are used for detecting data that too
complex to understand by either by humans or other computing techniques. A
particularly trained neural network can be called an ‘expert’ which is trained over a
specific datasets. The network is composed of highly interconnected processing
element working in a parallel scheme to solve a specific goal. The network should be
trained perfectly. Otherwise it can’t work perfectly and as a result some uncorrelated
values generated. In the fig. 2 we can see a simple model of artificial neuron.

Fig. 2: Simple model of an artificial neuron

Here 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , 𝑥3 … … … 𝑥𝑛 are the inputs which shows n numbers of inputs in the input
layer. There are n numbers of weights (𝑤1 , 𝑤2 , 𝑤3 … … … 𝑤𝑛 ) hich are multiplided with the
inputs. Accelaration or retardation of the inputs are related with the weights of the input.
A stronger signal has large weights and vice versa. As the total inputs 𝐼 received by the
soma of artificial neuron. So,
𝐼 = 𝑤1 𝑥1 + 𝑤2 𝑥2 + 𝑤3 𝑥3 + ⋯ + 𝑤𝑛 𝑥𝑛
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5
𝑛
= 𝑖=1 𝑤𝑖 𝑥𝑖
(1)

3.2 Learning method

The dataset used in this study was generated through monitoring of the water quality at
the Padma river. The river water quality was monitored for the five different location.
The water samples are collected from a depth of 15cm below the surface at five
different sampling sites of river. All the water samples collected during the study were
analyzed for 6 different parameters. For the ANN modelling, six parameters are used,
listed here: water pH, total hardness (T-hard, mg/L), turbidity (NTU), chemical oxygen
demand (COD, mg/L), biological oxygen demand (BOD, mg/L), dissolved oxygen (DO,
mg/L). The test were regulated at department of public health engineering (DPH),
Dhaka and Rajshahi. A three layer feedforward backpropagation learning network were
constructed for computation of the river water parameters. There were total 18 sets of
data from which we used 15 sets of data for training the network and 3 sets of data for
testing the network. A single layer hidden neuron is used for the network. We have used
the back propagation (BP) learning algorithm which uses the back propagation of the
error gradient. In here onecomplete cycle is called the ‘epoch’. Levenberg-Marquardt
algorithm (LMA) used in thenetwork instead of traditional gradient descent which
computes rather slowly due to the linear convergence. The LMA which is a simplified
form of Hessian matrix can be approximated as:
𝐻 = 𝐽𝑇 𝐽 …………………….. (2)
and the gradient can be computed as:
𝑔 = 𝐽𝑇 𝑒 ………………………..(3)
In here, 𝐽 is a Jacobian matrix which contains first derivatives of the network errors with
respect to the weights and biases, and 𝑒 is a vector of network errors.
One iteration of this algorithm is written as
𝑥𝑘+1 = 𝑥𝑘 − 𝐽𝑇 𝐽 + 𝜇𝐼 −1 𝑇
𝐽 𝑒 ………………. (4)
Where 𝜇 is the learning rate and 𝐼 is an identity matrix. The learning rate is an important
factor for the computation procedure. If it is too small, the rate of convergence will be
slow due to the large number of steps needed to reach the minimum error. This value is
not fixed as the optimization of learning parameter is highly problem dependent. Hagan
et al. (1996) showed that the learning becomes unstable for higher values (>0.0035).
The mean square error used as the target error goal is defined as
1 𝑁 2
𝑀𝑆𝐸 = 𝑖=1 𝑦𝑝𝑖 − 𝑂𝑖 ………………………… (5)
𝑁

Where 𝑦𝑝𝑖 and 𝑂𝑖 represented the model computed and measured values of the
variables. 𝑁represents the number of observations. For the forecasting problem the
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

training of the network both the input and the output variables were normalized within
the range 0.1-0.9. The following equation is used for the calculation:
𝑥−𝑥 𝑚𝑖𝑛
𝑥𝑖 = 0.8 × + 0.1 …………………………………(6)
𝑥 𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑥 𝑚𝑖𝑛

Where 𝑥𝑖 is the normalized value of a certain parameter, x is the measured value for
this parameter, 𝑥𝑚𝑖𝑛 and 𝑥𝑚𝑎𝑥 are the minimum and maximum values in the database
for the parameters respectively. Then we used nonlinear autoregressive (NAR) network
in MATLAB 2014b to predict the output and then target less forecasting for the given
parameters. We have predicted y(t) given past d values of y(t) (For details see MATLAB
2014b documentation). Then a target less forecasting is done by using the close-loop
setup. Tansig (Hyperbolic tangent sigmoid transfer fucntion) and Purelin (Linear transfer
function) are used as transfer function for the hidden and output layers respectively.

3.3 Performance measurement criteria

The learning and validation of an artificial neural network models are based upon one or
more selected error functions. Moreover, validation is a critical aspect of any model
construction. This types of performance measurement shows the robustness of any
model. To determine the performance of each of the selected network model, different
criteria is used: the root mean square error (RMSE), the coefficient of determination (R2 ),
the adjusted-R2 , the error sum of squares (SSE).
The RMSE represents the error associated with the model and can be computed as:

2
𝑁 𝑦 𝑝𝑖 −𝑂𝑖
RMSE = 𝑖=1 …………………….(7)
𝑁

Where 𝑦𝑝𝑖 and 𝑂𝑖 represent the model computed and measured values of the variable,
and N represents the number of observations. The RMSE, a measure of the goodness-
of-fit, best describes an average measure of the error in predicting the dependent
variable.
SSE is the sum of the squared differences between each observation and its group's
mean. It can be used as a measure of variation within a cluster. If all cases within a
cluster are identical the SSE would then be equal to 0. This SSE can calculated as:
𝑁 2
SSE = 𝑖=1 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥 ………………………………(8)
Where n is the number of observations 𝑥𝑖 is the value of the i th observation and 0 is the
mean of all the observations.
The coefficient of determination (R2 ) represents the percentage of variability that can be
explained by the model and is calculated as:
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5
2
𝑁 𝑁 𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑂 𝑖 𝑦 𝑝𝑖 − 𝑖=1 𝑂 𝑖
𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑦 𝑝𝑖
R2 = …………………………………..(9)
𝑁 𝑁 𝑂 2− 𝑁 𝑂 2 × 𝑁 𝑁 𝑦 2− 𝑁 𝑦 2
𝑖=1 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖 𝑖=1 𝑝𝑖

The adjusted R2 can be calculated as:

𝑛−1
Adjusted R2 = 1 − (1 − 𝑅 2 )(𝑛−𝑝−1) …………………………………………… (10)

Where n is the sample size and p is the number of predictors.

4. Result and performance analysis

The selection of input parameters for ANN is very important aspects for ANN modeling.
For the modeling we used 15 sets of data for training and 3 sets of data for testing. A
basic statistic table of the measured water quality variables of Padma river is shown
below.

Table 1: Basic statistics of the measured water quality variables in Padma river

Sl. Water Unit Min Max Median Mean SD C V (%)

No. Quality
Parameter
1 pH 6.8 9.26 7.95 8.005 0.661558 0.082643
2 Turbidity NTU 3.76 732 17.65 130.4106 210.8783 1.617034
3 Hardness mg/L 84 225 101 111.7778 31.95406 0.285871
4 COD mg/L 1 21 4 6.211111 5.373793 0.86519
5 BOD mg/L 0.4 2.8 1.4 1.513529 0.773981 0.511375
6 DO mg/L 4.14 9.92 6.715 7.018333 1.591845 0.226812
SD: Standard deviation; CV: Coefficient of variation
Performance measurement of the water quality parameters with appropriate time lags is
shown in table 2.
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

Table 2: Performance parameters for ANN

Model Time lag ANN SSE R-square Adjusted RMSE

structure R-square
pH 1:3 1-25-1 0.5086 0.1438 0.0779 0.1978

Turbidity 1:2 1-18-1 0.1228 0.8683 0.8589 0.09365

Hardness 1:2 1-13-1 0.1386 0.767 0.7504 0.0995

COD 1:2 1-18-1 0.1952 0.8229 0.8103 0.1181

BOD 1:2 1-15-1 0.3059 0.7632 0.7463 0.1478

DO 1:3 1-23-1 0.3381 0.5663 0.5353 0.1554

4.1 pH model
For the forecasting of pH the hidden layer size is 25 which is selected by trial and error
method. The normalized mean square error (NMSE) for open loop is 1.1532 and 1.2850
for the close loop. The open loop NARNET (non-linear autoregressive neural net) result
is shown below:

Fig. 3: Open loop result for pH

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

The close loop NARNET results shows the target less forecasting for next 18 days is
shown below:

Fig. 4: Close loop result for pH

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

From the fig. 4 we can see that majority of pH valuesfall between 0.3-0.9. The linear fit
for pH is shown in fig. 5. The value of 𝑅 2 is 0.1438 which shows the poor fit. So the
modelling of pH is not good as expected.

Fig. 5: Linear fit for pH

4.2 Turbidity model

For the forecasting of turbidity the hidden layer size is 18. The normalized mean square
error (NMSE) for open loop is 0.1387 and 1.4071 for the close loop. Here we showed
only the close loop NARNET result and the fitness curve for turbidity.

Fig. 6: Close loop result for turbidity

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

From the fig. 6 we can see that most of the forecasted values lie between 0.1-0.4. The
value of 𝑅 2 is 0.8683 which shows the good fit for the model.

Fig. 7: Linear fit for turbidity

4.3 Hardness model

In here the hidden layer size is 13. The normalized mean square error (NMSE) for open
loop is 0.2593 and 2.2059 for the close loop. The close loop NARNET result and the
fitness curve is shown below.
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

Fig. 8: Close loop result for hardness

From the fig. 8 we can see that most of the forecasted values lie between 0.19-0.4. The
value of 𝑅 2 is 0.767 which indicates a better fit

Fig. 9: Linear fit for hardness

4.4 COD model

The hidden layer size is 18. The normalized mean square error (NMSE) for open loop is
0.2014 and 2.5142 for the close loop. The close loop NARNET result and the fitness
curve is shown below.
 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

Fig. 10: Close loop result for COD

From fig. 10 we can see that most of the forecasted values lie between 0.15 - 1.2. The
value of 𝑅 2 is 0.8229 which indicates a better NN modeling.

Fig. 11: Linear fit for COD

4.5 BOD model

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

For the forecasting of BOD the hidden layer size is 15. The normalized mean square
error (NMSE) for open loop is 0.2787 and 1.4437 for the close loop. The close loop
NARNET result and the fitness curve is shown below.

Fig. 12: Close loop result for BOD

From fig. 12 we can see that most of the forecasted values lie between 0.1 - 0.9. The
value of 𝑅 2 is 0.7632 which indicates the better fit of the model.

Fig. 13: Linear fit for BOD

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

4.6 DO model
For the forecasting of DO the estimated size of the hidden layer size is 23. The
normalized mean square error (NMSE) for open loop is 0.4896 and 1.7883 for the close
loop. The close loop NARNET result and the fitness curve is shown below.

Fig. 14: Close loop result for DO

From the fig. 14 most of the forecasted values fall between 0.4 - 0.8. The value of 𝑅 2 is
0.5663 which shows somehow good fit of the model.

Fig. 15: Linear fit for DO

 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

5. Conclusion
Thestudy was performed to forecast the water quality parameters of Padma river. The
study also highlights the present water quality situation. Timeless Prediction is showing
that the river water quality is degrading gradually. Besides we can see that
establishment of heavy industrial organizations in this area is a menace for the river. As
there are insufficient data for the work, so the forecasting of only 18 Days is shown
here. For better and long term forecasting, a large number of data set is needed.
Further development of ANN modelling, all water quality parameters can be considered.
Besides data from previous 2-3 years at continuous basis can improve the model.
Relationship between different industrial wastes and water quality parameter can be
build up with this ANN modeling.

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 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

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 Proceedings of 14th Asian Business Research Conference
30 - 31 December, 2016, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
ISBN: 978-1-925488-26-5

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