Eye Really Love Probability

How likely would it be for two brown-eyed parents to give birth to a blue-eyed
baby? Even if the parents are both carriers for the gene, it is not as common as some
might think. Our sample space is all of the possible outcomes that two brown eyed
parents would produce a blue eyed child. Given that the parents are carriers for the blue
eyed gene, the outcomes are either blue or brown eyes.

B b

B BB Bb

b Bb bb
Above is a punnett square of the two parents, and inside the two parents are all
the possibilities of their future child’s eye color. In our situation, the A is blue eyes. To
find the probability of blue eyes, or P(A), we took the number of total outcomes 4 and
the number of outcomes that involve blue eyes 1 and put it into a fraction. We found that
the probability of blue eyes for two brown eyed parents is ¼, or %25. Based on this
probability, we can say that it is unlikely that these two parents will have a blue eyed
baby. On the other hand, we could find the probability of the two parents not having a
blue eyed baby. This probability, Ac, was calculated by taking the total outcomes 4 and
the remaining chances of eye colors 3 and putting them into fractions. ¾, or %75, is the
probability that the two parents will not have a blue eyed baby. If we look at P(A) and
P(Ac), we noticed that both of them together adds up to %100. This means that the
combined probability of having blue eyes and not having blue eyes is one hundred
percent certain to occur.
Looking at the other side of the situation, the chances of the baby having brown
eyes is greater. B in this scenario is brown eyes. To find the probability of brown eyes,
or P(B), we took the total number of outcomes 4 and the number of chances it will have
brown eyes 3 and put it into a fraction. ¾, or 75%, is the probability of the child having
brown eyes. Looking at this number, we can see that the chance of the parents having a
child with brown eyes is very likely to occur. Contrary to this, we can also look at the
chance that the parents will not have a brown eyed baby. The probability of this, , was
calculated by taking the total number of outcomes 4 and putting it into a fraction with the
remaining chances of not having a brown eyed baby 1. This comes out to ¼, or %25. By
looking at the probability of brown eyes and the probability of not having brown eyes, we
noticed that once again it adds up to %100. This probability means that it is certain that
the parents will either have a brown eyed child or the child will not have brown eyes.
 We then looked at the two outcomes individually, wondering if they were
independent or dependent. Being independent means that one event can occur without
having an impact on another event. Dependent, on the other hand, means that the
outcome of one event affects the outcome of the following event. After looking at the
two outcomes, we realized that our two outcomes were independent. The reason our
two events are independent is because one child’s eye color does not affect the results
of the next child’s eye color. If one is born with blue eyes it does not make the next child
more or less likely to have one color over the other. Once we realized these events
were independent, we wanted to calculate the probability of the first child having blue
eyes and the second child having brown eyes. This calculation, P(A and B), was done
by taking the probability of blue eyes (P(A)=25%) and the probability of brown eyes
(P(B)=75%) and multiplying them together (.25 x .75). The probability of one child having
blue eyes and the next child having brown eyes is 18.75%. Since our events were independent,
we used the formula P(A) x P(B). This multiplies the results of both independent events and
gives the likelihood of both events happening one after the other. The value of 18.75% means
that it is very unlikely that the child of two Bb parents will have blue eyes, then brown eyes for
the very next child. Given that our events were independent, we did not have to use P(B|A),
P(A|B), or the formulas surrounding the two. If we did have to use these formulas, we would
apply the probability of having a child with brown eyes given the first child had blue eyes to the
following formula: P(A) x P(B/A). However, because our events were independent it was not
practical to use the dependent formulas.
We then considered the probability of blue or brown eyes as a compound event. In
order to do this, we had to decide if our two events were mutually exclusive. To be mutually
exclusive, one event must have no effect on the other event. Our situations were mutually
exclusive. We knew this to be true because the eye color of one child does not have an impact
on the next child. Next, we wanted to see the likelihood of the parents in our scenario to have
either a blue eyed child or a brown eyed child. In order to calculate this, we took the probability
of blue eyes (P(A)=25%) and added it to the probability of having brown eyes (P(B)=75%) and
we got the result of 100% (P(A or B)= 100%) Given that our events were mutually exclusive, we
used the formula P(A)+P(B). The result of this calculation tells us that the chances of these
parents having either blue or brown eyes for their child are certain. It is almost impossible to
believe that our events would not be mutually exclusive, however if the circumstance were to
arise it would mean that if one child had brown eyes it would have an impact on the next child
they have.
In probability, the multiplication rule of counting plays a large part in the success of
predicting outcomes. The multiplication rule of counting is applied in a circumstance where
we are given a amount of options, and we put it in combination of b amounts of another
options, the rule of a times b tells us the amount of possible combinations for both of those
options together. This rule is used to provide a number of possible combinations in a scenario of
a and b. In an example, somebody has 13 pairs of shoes and 25 shirts. This person wants to
see how many different combinations of shirts and shoes they can create. They would simply
multiply 13 and 25 together to get a total of 325 possible combinations. A permutation is a way,
especially one of several possible variations, in which a set or number of things can be ordered
or arranged. A permutation is different from a combination because the order in which someone
places the numbers matters. This is used for creating and organizing lists of numerical
information. There are a few different ways to calculate a permutation, factorial, nPr= n! / (n-r)!
or by typing in the number of choices n and the number of outcomes r in between the option nPr
in the calculator. An example of where someone would use permutation is when a group of 8
people are playing musical chairs with 8 chairs. Order matters in this situation because people
cannot be repeated in musical chairs. To figure it out you would do 8!. The answer is 40,320.
Combinations differ slightly from permutations A combination is a selection of items in a
greater collection in which the order of the selection does not matter. In a permutation, the order
in which numbers are placed matter. A combination is a situation where the order of the number
does not matter. A combination is used for groups of information in which the result is the same
for each selection. One method for calculating a combination is: n!/r!(n-r)! This is a scenario
where n and r are both whole numbers and n is greater than or equal to r. Another way to
calculate combinations is to type the possible selections into the calculator, go to nCr, then type
the number of selections possible. In an example, students from Mrs. Lewis’s class draw names
out of a hat to earn A´s for the rest of the year. She picks three students to earn the prize and
the result is the same for each student. To calculate, the formula is as follows: 26!/3!(26-3)! If we
did not have a calculator, we would use this formula. However we simply plugged in 26 nCr 3
into our calculator and got the result of 2600 possible results of the drawing.
having 2 blue/brown eyed children from Bb and Bb parents - Megan & Lauren

Identify the sample space (please organize in a list, table, diagram, etc)
Our sample space is all the possible outcomes of a child having blue or brown eyes

B b

B BB Bb

b Bb bb

2. Start by identifying a simple event A related to your scenario (just 1 die, coin,
card, etc.)
a. A =
i. Blue eyes
b. Find P(A)
i. 25%
c. What does P(A) tell you?
i. The probability that a child will have blue eyes is 25%. This tells us that it
is unlikely that the child of these parents will have blue eyes.
c
d. A =
i. Not blue eyes
e. Find P(Ac)
i. 75%
f. What is true about P(A) and P(Ac)?
i. The probability of a child having blue eyes and a child not having blue
eyes will always add up to 100%.
3. Now identify another simple event B (the 2nd die, coin, spin, card, etc.)
a. B =
i. Brown eyes
b. Find P(B)
i. The probability of a child having brown eyes is 75%
c. What does P(B) tell you?
i. The probability of a child having brown eyes tells me that it is very likely
that the child will have brown eyes
d. Bc =
i. Not brown eyes
e. Find P(Bc)
i. The probability of not brown eyes is 25%
f. What is true about P(B) and P(Bc)?
i. The probability of brown eyes and not brown eyes will add up to 100%
4. Now consider events A and B together as a compound event.
a. What does it mean for 2 events to be independent? Dependent?
i. For two events to be independent, they can occur or not occur and have
no effect on another event occurring. They are dependent if we can take
into account the changes in one event to affect the other event.
b. Are your two events independent or dependent of each other?
i. Our two events are independent.
c. How do you know?
i. The reason our two events are independent is because one child’s eye
color does not affect the results of the next child’s eye color. If one is born
with blue eyes it does not make the next child more or less likely to have
one color over the other.
d. Find P(A and B)
i. (.25x.75) The probability of one child having blue eyes and the next child
having brown eyes is 18.75%
e. How did you decide which probability formula to use?
i. Since our events were independent, we used the formula P(A) x P(B).
This multiplies the results of both independent events and gives the
likelihood of both events happening one after the other.
f. What does this value mean in terms of your original scenario?
i. The value of 18.75% means that it is very unlikely that the child of two Bb
parents will have blue eyes, then brown eyes for the very next child.
g. If your events were dependent, explain what is meant by P(B|A) or P(A|B).
i. Given that our events were independent, we did not have to use P(B/A),
P(A/B), or the formulas surrounding the two. If we did have to use these
formulas, we would apply the probability of having a child with brown eyes
given the first child had blue eyes to the following formula: P(A) x P(B/A).
However, because our events were independent it was not practical to
use the dependent formulas.
5. Next consider events A or B together as a compound event.
a. What does it mean for 2 events to be mutually exclusive?
i. One event does not affect the other event.
b. Are your two events mutually exclusive?
i. Yes
c. How do you know?
i. The eye color of one child does not have an impact on the next child
d. Find P(A or B)
P(A or B)= 100%
e. How did you decide which probability formula to use?
i. Our event is mutually exclusive, so we used the formula P(A)+P(B).
f. What does this value mean in terms of your original scenario?
i. The percentage of either blue eyes or brown eyes is going to be 100%.
g. If the events were not mutually exclusive, what is the significance of P(A and B)?
 i. Our project didn’t rely on that, but if we had a brown eyed child, it would
affect the eye color of the next child.

6. This part is separate from your assigned topic above. Provide complete answers to the
following questions. DO NOT JUST GIVE DEFINITIONS AND EXAMPLES FROM THE
BOOK. Please explain in your own words and come up with your own examples.
a. The Multiplication Rule of Counting
i. What is it?
1. In a circumstance where we are given a amount of options, and
we put it in combination of b amounts of another options, the rule
of a times b tells us the amount of possible combinations for both
of those options together.
ii. What is it used for?
1. This rule is used to provide a number of possible combinations in
a scenario of a and b
iii. Provide an example of how it might be used, complete with an
explanation and solution
1. In an example, somebody has 13 pairs of shoes and 25 shirts.
This person wants to see how many different combinations of
shirts and shoes they can create. They would simply multiply 13
and 25 together to get a total of 325 possible combinations.
b. Permutation
i. What is it?
1. a way, especially one of several possible variations, in which a set
or number of things can be ordered or arranged
ii. What makes it different from a combination?
1. Order matters
iii. What is it used for?
1. Lists of information
iv. What are the different methods for calculating it?
1. Factorial, nPr= n! / (n-r)! Or by typing in the number of choices n
and the number of outcomes r in between the option nPr in the
calculator.
v. Provide an example of how it might be used, complete with an
explanation, and formulas, and a solution
1. Group of 8 people are playing musical chairs with 8 chairs. To
figure it out you would do 8!. The answer is 40,320.
c. Combination
i. What is it?
1. A selection of items in a greater collection in which the order of the
selection does not matter
ii. What makes it different from a permutation?
 1. In a permutation, the order in which numbers are placed matter. A
combination is a situation where the order of the number does not
matter.
iii. What is it used for?
1. Groups of information in which the result is the same for each
selection
iv. What are the different methods for calculating it?
1. One method for calculating a combination is: n!/r!(n-r)! This is a
scenario where n and r are both whole numbers and n is greater
than or equal to r. Another way to calculate combinations is to
type the possible selections into the calculator, go to nCr, then
type the number of selections possible.
v. Provide an example of how it might be used, complete with an
explanation, and formulas, and a solution
1. In an example, students from Mrs. Lewis’s class draw names out
of a hat to earn A´s for the rest of the year. She picks three
students to earn the prize and the result is the same for each
student. To calculate, the formula is as follows: 26!/3!(26-3)! If we
did not have a calculator, we would use this formula. However we
simply plugged in 26 nCr 3 into our calculator and got the result of
2600 possible results of the drawing.
7. FINALLY
a. Write a 1-2 page single spaced summary report that includes all information
listed above and answers all questions listed above, at an absolute minimum. It
is recommended and strongly encouraged that you expand and elaborate on
each idea and how it relates to your specific probability scenario.
b. DO NOT use bullets, numbers, or lists of any kind.
c. Instead include a short paragraph discussing each idea that ties together the
points in my listed instructions for you.
d. Think about this summary as though you are teaching someone about the basic
ideas of probability in the context of your specific scenario.
e. BOLDED words will be important to include and explain in your report.